March Metagame Analysis

[HSCK]

Hello everyone, in keeping with our monthly analysis I've compiled a list of tournaments and tracked results from 6 or more round tournaments on The Council, which is the same criteria The Source uses for tracking its DtB forum. Here are the tournaments I gathered data from:

Hannover (50 players)
Duel for the Duals (56 players)
Lainate (35 players)
SV 5 (43 players)
Kingdom 6 (47 players)
Gottacon (50 players)
SCG Seattle (321 players)
SCG LA (300 players)
Tempe Arizona March (38 players)
GBLL Tappa 7 (40 players)
Arcanis Deluxe (110 players)
Chicago (81 players)
Jambo Brazil (42 players)
Win a Duel 6 (40 players)
SCG Invi 7-1 (361 players)
SCG Charlotte (385 players)
MKM Turniers (42 players)
Pisa (52 players)
VdB March (38 players)
Torino 1 March (40 players)
Olympus 3 (67 players)
LCL March (121 players)
Dragonfalls (137 players)
Geneva Legacy (34 players)

I did not use the top 8 of the SCG Invi but instead used their 7-1 lists. I have a total of 185 decks surveyed with 40 different decks showing up. I did keep all dredge variants the same along with combining UR Delver and UR Burn as their lists didn't show a huge amount of difference. I also kept a Stifle-Nought variant of Team America in the TA category instead of another one.

Without further ado:

Miracles 26 top 8s
Team America 22 top 8s
Jund 12 top 8s
Death and Taxes 11 top 8s
Deathblade 11 top 8s
Sneak and Show 9 top 8s
Elves 9 top 8s
Maverick 6 top 8s
Nic Fit, RUG, ANT, Dredge, UR Delver, and Shardless BUG 5 top 8s
UWR Delver 4 top 8s
Esper Blade 3 top 8s

UWR had a huge drop-off this month, like incredible compared to what its been charting the last few. Miracles has finally overtaken Team America as the most populous deck but both are pretty far ahead of the metagame. We see a lot of clustering between in the next 5 most popular decks. Maverick was a surprise contender with 6 top 8s including at some of the larger European events. This month saw a lot of fragmentation amongst the previous top 10 decks in the meta as well.

So, when it comes to diversity and health what do people think of it for this month and the past few months that I've charted?

[rxavage]

I guess TNN didn't kill Jund. I'd like to see Nic-Fit become a bigger player in the meta, it seems like a fun deck to play with and against, I may even pick the deck up myself as SfM and SneakShow have become stale.

[Admiral_Arzar]

I guess TNN didn't kill Jund. I'd like to see Nic-Fit become a bigger player in the meta, it seems like a fun deck to play with and against, I may even pick the deck up myself as SfM and SneakShow have become stale.

Jund is brutal for Miracles (actually the reason I returned to Jund) and has solid matchups against the Delver decks as well. I haven't actually tested the TNN matchups very much though.

[Fl0do]

Don't count the Dragonfalls Legacy League tournament, it probably never took place. I know the eventual winner and he never attended to that tournament. I asked him today because I know he isn't playing any sanctioned events for the last 2 years because he got suspended in 2012 til june 2014.

[HSCK]

Jund's pretty good against the TNN decks as they have Decay+Liliana and Hymn. Jund's still quite solid.

Wait, what do you mean? That the tournament didn't happen?

[Fl0do]

Wait, what do you mean? That the tournament didn't happen?

Exactly, I have the strong suspicion this tournament never happened.

[twndomn]

So, when it comes to diversity and health what do people think of it for this month and the past few months that I've charted?

A famous Legacy streamer said it on his stream, as he was walking around in the convention hall in Charlotte on Sunday, there're so many Miracles.

Key take-away:
1. Now that the drop of WUR Delver's evident, will RUG Delver make a comeback?
2. With the number of WUR Delver waning, does this mean the number of RiP in people's SB decreasing? Graveyard strategy rising?

[HSCK]

Exactly, I have the strong suspicion this tournament never happened.

So some one created a fake event with fake numbers, decklists, and names?

[Fl0do]

So some one created a fake event with fake numbers, decklists, and names?

Yes. Some other evidence: the listed Top 8 players are from the USA, Finland, Germany and Austria and gathered to participate to 137 player event which took place on a thursday? Sounds implausible. I'm pretty sure this is a fake tournament.

[Megadeus]

Rise of miracles. Vomit. I hate playing against Miracles. Probably the most nerve wracking match I have ever played. No deck I have ever played feels like it has a positive MU vs the deck...

[Admiral_Arzar]

Rise of miracles. Vomit. I hate playing against Miracles. Probably the most nerve wracking match I have ever played. No deck I have ever played feels like it has a positive MU vs the deck...

Play Jund, you'll love the matchup. Pretty much the only way they win is if a giant Entreat happens, and postboard you have answers to that.

[Megadeus]

Meh... Jund is a bit too autopilot to me. I love BBE and Liliana and such, but I could see myself getting bored of the deck quickly.

[twndomn]

Play Jund, you'll love the matchup. Pretty much the only way they win is if a giant Entreat happens, and postboard you have answers to that.

That's wrong. Miracles need a miraculous draw to defeat below-the-average 12 Post draw. In other words, 99% of time, 12 Post just runs over Miracles.


Rise of miracles. Vomit. I hate playing against Miracles. Probably the most nerve wracking match I have ever played. No deck I have ever played feels like it has a positive MU vs the deck...

Miracles can't rise, it's series of events. You might say the rise of Saints, Saints are avatars performing miracles.

[TheArchitect]

As a miracles player, the deck honestly feels like it is best deck in the format. There are bad matchups, but none that can not be made positive with just a few changes to the SB. Shardless BUG or 12 post tough? Add 1 etutor and blood moon. Sneak and show? More needles and REBs or humility. Goblins? Moat. Delver decks? Verdict. You just have to be prepared for the meta.

Jund wrecks all the delver decks and death and taxes, but at least for me, it is never a negative matchup. I have to watch out for just a couple things: turn 2 lily with follow up pressure, draws that are super aggressive AND card advantage (multiple bob+BBE), and not being stupid and getting blown out by choke. Nothing else jund does really matters, to win I just resolve an entreat for 3-4 angels or eot wipe the board and then cast bloodmoon.

[Asthereal]

Rise of miracles. Vomit. I hate playing against Miracles. Probably the most nerve wracking match I have ever played. No deck I have ever played feels like it has a positive MU vs the deck...

Meh... Jund is a bit too autopilot to me. I love BBE and Liliana and such, but I could see myself getting bored of the deck quickly.
Goblins then? :wink:

[Admiral_Arzar]

Jund wrecks all the delver decks and death and taxes, but at least for me, it is never a negative matchup. I have to watch out for just a couple things: turn 2 lily with follow up pressure, draws that are super aggressive AND card advantage (multiple bob+BBE), and not being stupid and getting blown out by choke. Nothing else jund does really matters, to win I just resolve an entreat for 3-4 angels or eot wipe the board and then cast bloodmoon.

This has not been my experience at all - it isn't the blowouts that matter in the matchup, it's the incremental advantage Jund is usually able to assemble. I have won games against Miracles where I kept a hand with no creatures - disruption + Sylvan Library card selection is very strong. Jace dies very quickly against Jund because Miracles has few creatures to protect him - Jund's card advantage engine does the rest. Blood Moon is irrelevant if the Jund player fetches basics (as I always do in the matchup) and postboard Jund runs a large amount of enchantment removal anyways. Again, the only way I have ever lost a game (I have never lost a match) to Miracles is a giant Entreat in the mid-end game where I lacked pressure or a sweeper.

[Megadeus]

Goblins then? :wink:

Right now I'm on dead guy which feels meh. Mostly depends on play skill in the match up, which I feel I can out play the average miracles player, but an unchecked top is doom. Loam felt unfavored if they were on RIP, favored if they weren't. And Nic Fit felt like it was an almost unwinnable MU as did TES.

[btm10]

The meta looks pretty healthy overall. I like this.


Rise of miracles. Vomit. I hate playing against Miracles. Probably the most nerve wracking match I have ever played. No deck I have ever played feels like it has a positive MU vs the deck...

I love playing with and against Miracles. It's far and away my favorite deck (aside from Enchantress, but that's dead, dead, dead) and if I had more consistent access to Tundras (the one blue-based dual I decided to sell...), it would be my primary deck. For all the complaining people (not you, that I've noticed) do about Delver and True-Name Nemesis ruining Legacy and making it a skill-less format, I'm actually pretty surprised to hear that someone dislikes Miracles as a deck. You may not have a favorable matchup, but I can't see what there is to hate about the deck itself. It's intensely interactive, it's quite difficult to play well, it doesn't win out of nowhere on turn 3...it's just a traditional control deck. I guess there are those who don't like it, though.

[bruizar]

Hi HSCK,

Can I see how you've gathered the data? Was this done manually or by scraping software/script? Do you have access to all deck lists, or only to top 8's? The reason why I am asking is because I have an interest in running some statistical analysis on the meta game. In particular, I'd like to see if I can make a meta-game predictor using R. I'd greatly appreciate if you could share the dataset.

[HSCK]

I did it by hand, and Arsenal and I agreed to only use top 8s. Nothing fancy, just a few minutes on the weekends inputting data.

[bruizar]

Thanks, I just visited the council to see what type of information they display. I have yet to find a tournament that documents all deck lists. Without the entire set of deck lists, it's really hard to say much about meta games. Top 8's do give some insight, but I am mostly interested in sideboard choices as game 2 and 3 define matches more than game 1.

You could infer from top8 sideboards what the metagame might have been like, given the assumption that the top8 deck lists are the most well-prepared decks, but that is a little bit of a leap of logic. Would have been so much better if everything was made available. I hope deck registration will be entirely digital at some point in the future.

EDIT:

Provided the deck lists (even of the scrubs) and match outcomes are documented, it would be possible to run monte carlo simulations and replay certain tournaments, it would be possible to then measure pilot skill by contrasting the outcomes against the winning average of all pilots of a certain deck.

Also, the results slips of WOTC suck. You can't say which games you've won or lost when the result is 1/2 or 2/1. Information about game 1 loss or sideboard loss is critical for analysis. Also, information on who's on the play or draw should be on the result slip.

[Dice_Box]

I think all digital deck lists are definitely a coming thing. With the machine readable cards coming, we might ever see standard move to "Insert deck, get list printout" in large turnys.

Anyway, on topic, it's good to see Jund back. I am happy to see it made its come back.

[TheArchitect]

This has not been my experience at all - it isn't the blowouts that matter in the matchup, it's the incremental advantage Jund is usually able to assemble. I have won games against Miracles where I kept a hand with no creatures - disruption + Sylvan Library card selection is very strong. Jace dies very quickly against Jund because Miracles has few creatures to protect him - Jund's card advantage engine does the rest. Blood Moon is irrelevant if the Jund player fetches basics (as I always do in the matchup) and postboard Jund runs a large amount of enchantment removal anyways. Again, the only way I have ever lost a game (I have never lost a match) to Miracles is a giant Entreat in the mid-end game where I lacked pressure or a sweeper.

I disagree. I think the matchup is basically in hands of the miracles player. Jund is going to do its thing, and crazy draws aside, miracles just has to find enough lands and removal to get the point where it can entreat for 3+ angels and its game over. Basically, the matchup is a grindfest where the winner isn't the one who generates the most advantage by the end of it, if the game keeps going the winner is just always miracles and its angel tokens.

But then again maybe our particular lists give us an edge in the matchup or maybe we just play against bad players.

[Megadeus]

The meta looks pretty healthy overall. I like this.



I love playing with and against Miracles. It's far and away my favorite deck (aside from Enchantress, but that's dead, dead, dead) and if I had more consistent access to Tundras (the one blue-based dual I decided to sell...), it would be my primary deck. For all the complaining people (not you, that I've noticed) do about Delver and True-Name Nemesis ruining Legacy and making it a skill-less format, I'm actually pretty surprised to hear that someone dislikes Miracles as a deck. You may not have a favorable matchup, but I can't see what there is to hate about the deck itself. It's intensely interactive, it's quite difficult to play well, it doesn't win out of nowhere on turn 3...it's just a traditional control deck. I guess there are those who don't like it, though.

I dont hate the deck. I hate playing against it. Not in a "I'm not having fun" way. It's just a tough deck to play against. I hate my match up against it a lot of the time.

[twndomn]

Basically, the matchup is a grindfest where the winner isn't the one who generates the most advantage by the end of it, if the game keeps going the winner is just always miracles and its angel tokens.


That's not true. In this Miracle vs Jund MU, assume game goes long in which both players are on top-decking mode, then the following factors determines the outcome:
1. Is PFire online? Even if CB-T v.s. opponent's PFire, it's not guaranteed CB will continue to last.
2. what's Miracle player's life total? Miracles break lots of fetches, hence life total is a factor. Assume both are top-decking, no planeswalkers for both sides, One good Cascade, regardless you have CB or not, might end Miracle. Bolt cmc 1, Pfire cmc 2, BBE cmc 4, all can deal that last lethal damage the turn Jund player top-decks it, it's not easy to CB-T flip your way out.

[HSCK]

A 34 person tournament just showed up and I've updated accordingly, is there any way to get more info about this Dragonfall thing?

[bakofried]

Try to look up the players on your own, if it's true they're from all over the place, it might confirm it's nonexistence.

Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk

[allek]

This meta is an abomination, it consists only of decks playing Wood Elemental or decks that don't care about a resolved Wood Elemental!
Banhammer, we summon thee!

[HSCK]

All decks care about Wood Elemental, all of them!

[diego1985]

Can you post a ur delver lists please?

Inviato dal mio GT-S7500 con Tapatalk 2

[HSCK]

Pick your poison:

http://www.tcdecks.net/tipo.php?archetype=UR%20Burn&format=Legacy

[Scott]

Thanks for the reply on the other thread, HSCK. Do you have data on how blue (using blue lands or having Brainstorm or having FOW or having blue spells, any definition is fine) the meta is now, compared to before?

[HSCK]

No. Brainstorm decks cover a tremendous spectrum so I'd rather just track decks. I am fairly the meta has three parts right now though: decks with evasive creatures, decks with sweepers, and combo decks.

Expanding upon those types I'd say:

Evasive creature decks with lots of disruption. (Team America, Deathblade, and UWR Delver)
Decks that can generate large amounts of card advantage with the ability to remove lots of creatures. (Miracles, Punishing Jund)
Combo decks that are more resilient to heavy discard effects with strong midgames that may not involve a combo (Painter, Sneak and Show use Moon effects, Elves can just beat and draw)

Midrange decks are kind of blurry, as DnT, TA, Deathblade, and Jund can all fall into this or other categories, but DnT is highly disruptive and has its fair shares of evasive creatures. TA is a Delver deck that can be a strong midrange deck. Deathblade is a TNN deck so kind of falls into the evasive/disruptive category as well. Jund has the option of sweepers, but plays a ton of removal and can generate a lot of CA through cascade as well.

[Higgs]

When you put it that way it seems to me like a very normal meta; Aggro, Control and Combo. The only thing is Aggro and Control are New Age 2k14 versions of themselves.

[HSCK]

Just the increase of strong cards over time I suppose. Right now you just don't want to be a ground pounder, as you can see in the decline of Shardless BUG and RUG. Tarmo is still playable, but only because it's hyper-efficient. Bloodbraid is only incidentally a ground pounder but it's big cascade is its power. Sames goes for all the 1-2 mana utility guys. RUG's been displaced from its giant perch for sure, but what's really interesting is the appearance of PW/TNN BUG. Trading out the Shardless package for TNNs, this BUG deck had 3-4 good results last month and I think it's poised to grow.

I think we should really ask ourselves if RUG and Jund being close to 40% of top 8s is more or less oppressive than what we're seeing now that TNN is in.