PDA

View Full Version : Six Months In Update



HSCK
05-20-2014, 09:11 AM
So, when TNN was released there was (and sometimes still is) a major debate as to its effect on the meta. There were a lot of arguments using data and how it would change metagame percentages and how that could be an indicator of Legacy health/decline. Arsenal pointed out that The Source uses The Council's 6+ rounds as a way of measuring so he created a one year analysis of what had happened before TNN and I've been collecting data since.

In the past 6 months I've surveyed 1090 decks across dozens of tournaments to see what the top 8 percentages have been:

Miracles 9.17% of the top 8 meta
Team America 9.17% of the top 8 meta
UWR Delver 5.23% of the top 8 meta
Deathblade 5.23% of the top 8 meta
Sneak and Show 5.14% of the top 8 meta
RUG Delver 5.14% of the top 8 meta
Elves 4.68% of the top 8 meta
Blade Control 4.59% of the top 8 meta
Jund 4.77% of the top 8 meta
Death and Taxes 4.40% of the top 8 meta
ANT 4.40% of the top 8 meta
Shardless BUG 3.39% of the top 8 meta
UR Delver 3.03% of the top 8 meta
Maverick 3.21% of the top 8 meta

These are all the decks that have at least a 3% share of the metagame for a total of 71.74% of the top 8 shares. In the prior ten months, these same decks took up at least 85% (I can't find Arsenal's original post at the time) of the metagame meaning there has been more space for other decks to place. No deck has surpassed 10% of the top 8 shares and the bulk lie between 5.23% and 4.4% (57 top 8s to 48 top 8s over six months).

What does this mean for Legacy's health at the moment? Is this good or bad to you?

klaus
05-20-2014, 09:19 AM
So
Looking good to me at first glance.
However your calcs should take the tournament's size into consideration, to make them more meaningfull.

HSCK
05-20-2014, 09:41 AM
So the difference between 6-7 rounds and 8-9, etc? I do have all the tournament sizes on my monthly updates as well.

testing32
05-21-2014, 07:58 AM
What does this mean for Legacy's health at the moment? Is this good or bad to you?

This means that BS decks occupies the top 39%. If you like playing blue I'm sure things seem great.

HSCK
05-21-2014, 09:43 AM
If that's the case can you point out a healthier time in Legacy's existence?

btm10
05-21-2014, 02:18 PM
This is more a question I have than a comment about the data, which looks great (and like a pretty healthy meta).

I know that an issue with the DTB Forum is the aggregation of similar archetypes into a single entry in The Council's database. This is particularly true when it comes to the BUG Midrange/Control decks. I know that Nihil Credo pointed out in this mont's DTBF update that only about half of the decks he counted under The Council's BUG Control label were Shardless BUG, with the other half being the more controlling deck with more Planeswalkers and True-Name Nemesis. Are these two decks separated in your analysis, or does your "Shardless BUG" coincide fully with The Council's "BUG Control"?

HSCK
05-21-2014, 05:06 PM
I have them named as PW BUG and Shardless BUG, separated. I have PW BUG with 5 placings in April as well with Shardless BUG at 6.

btm10
05-21-2014, 06:04 PM
Cool, thanks.