GP NJ meta discussion [Archive]

Barook

11-09-2014, 01:23 AM

What kind of meta do you expect for the GP next week? And what deck do you see well-positioned in that kind of meta?

Tons of random crap aside, I would expect lots of Burn, due it being cheap and requiring little to no format knowledge.

Delver is probaby coming at full force, with UR at the helmet and UWR to counter the mass of UR Delver decks. Also some RUG and BUG variants.

Miracles is likely another big player. While I don't see Elves being well-positioned in that kind of meta, I assume that quite a few people are still going to play it.

D&T might be well-positioned, but I don't think that it's going to be a big part of the meta compared to the other decks, as far as deck numbers are concerned.

Aside from that, Dredge and combo (S&T, Storm, Reanimator, etc.) are going to show up, but not in big numbers.

twndomn

11-09-2014, 06:01 AM

1. Number of players will be pretty high, in the thousands.
2. There will be some number of European Legacy players who're willing to travel, those are the skillful ones who aim for Top 8. Miracles seem to be more popular there than in the US.
3. People in the US seem to be strongly favor Delver, along with any decks that can jam Treasure Cruise into it.

FoolofaTook

11-09-2014, 11:28 AM

#'s of entries:

1. UR Delver (cheapish and hot)
2. Elves (cheapish and very consistent)
3. Miracles (no comment)
------------------------------------
Stoneblade
UWR Delver
BUG Delver
Burn
Dredge
------------------------------------
Everything else

Not sure if RUG Delver will sneak up into the group of 5 and make it 6.

maharis

11-09-2014, 11:42 AM

High penetration: URx Delver. Burn. Elves. D&T.
Moderately high penetration: BUG strategies (Delver or otherwise). UWx Stoneblade. Sneak & Show. Dredge.
Enough that you'll notice: Storm. Jund. Maverick.
More than you'd expect: Enchantress.
Less than you'd expect: Miracles.

jrw1985

11-09-2014, 12:32 PM

A good place to start looking is the top 16 deck lists from the SCG Open in Edison, New Jersey at the end of September. This is the event where Huang introduced the world to UR Delver by winning the tournament with it. The other big decks in the top 16 were 3 Miracles, 3 Elves, 2 Team America and 2 Dredge. UR has exploded since then and will be in DTB the next time that thread is updated. So come packing an answer to Delver and Graveyards, but have a plan against Miracles.

mishima_kazuya

11-09-2014, 09:37 PM

A lot locals are asking to borrow burn related cards and Volcanic Islands. LOTS and LOTS of Volcanic Islands apparently.

Take that for what you will.

TheArchitect

11-09-2014, 10:08 PM

A lot locals are asking to borrow burn related cards and Volcanic Islands. LOTS and LOTS of Volcanic Islands apparently.

Take that for what you will.

Same here in upstate NY. Its like 25% UR delver and 10% Burn. If you have a bad matchup against these decks, you need to play something else. You will not get far with something like Team america without some major modification.

I also expect a lot of decks that are cheap or easy to make/port. SCG is making this event really appealing to modern/standard players and legacy casuals with the 70$+ of stuff you get just from entering. At least in the early rounds, expect people playing borrowed decks, UR delver with shock lands, Manaless dredge, affinity, FoW/waste-less Merfolk and lots of burn.

Thinking about it, with countermagic and discard at a low, and Red blasts at a high I anticipate fast blackbased combo decks like TES, ANT, Tin fins or Reanimtor being VERY well positioned. Decks with stoneforge mystic also seem to be in a good spot.

BBG|Scott-Spain

11-10-2014, 10:30 AM

More than you'd expect: Enchantress.
Less than you'd expect: Miracles.

You have my attention. Curious how Solidarity has a place in this meta. And Miracles looks pretty good when you consider cards like Dig Through Time. Go on...

Barook

11-10-2014, 03:51 PM

Same here in upstate NY. Its like 25% UR delver and 10% Burn. If you have a bad matchup against these decks, you need to play something else. You will not get far with something like Team america without some major modification.

I also expect a lot of decks that are cheap or easy to make/port. SCG is making this event really appealing to modern/standard players and legacy casuals with the 70$+ of stuff you get just from entering. At least in the early rounds, expect people playing borrowed decks, UR delver with shock lands, Manaless dredge, affinity, FoW/waste-less Merfolk and lots of burn.

Thinking about it, with countermagic and discard at a low, and Red blasts at a high I anticipate fast blackbased combo decks like TES, ANT, Tin fins or Reanimtor being VERY well positioned. Decks with stoneforge mystic also seem to be in a good spot.
I totally forgot about Affinity and UR Burn with Shocks. That are both decent possibilities to encounter early.

ahg113

11-10-2014, 03:57 PM

Thinking about it, with countermagic and discard at a low, and Red blasts at a high I anticipate fast blackbased combo decks like TES, ANT, Tin fins or Reanimtor being VERY well positioned. Decks with stoneforge mystic also seem to be in a good spot.

This makes me want to sleeve up Belcher. Typically a horrible choice in the NE due to soooo much blue, it feels like a deck that could troll a counterless meta easily.

maharis

11-10-2014, 04:42 PM

You have my attention. Curious how Solidarity has a place in this meta. And Miracles looks pretty good when you consider cards like Dig Through Time. Go on...

I didn't say Miracles would be absent, just less than you'd think. I've seen a drop off in the amount of Miracles at my store recently, and I live in the NYC/NJ area. I think there are a couple reasons:

1) People like casting Treasure Cruise and if you have Miracles you have most of the cards for a TC deck
2) Miracles has a sort of meh burn matchup. UR delver and burn are omnipresent and UR delver is basically a burn deck that can counter Counterbalance
3) Miracles means long rounds and with a 3k person GP that is already going to be heavily delayed you probably don't want to go to time a lot

As for enchantress, I feel like no one ever expects it so there's generally more than you'd expect. On top of that:

1) Enchantress has dedicated players who come out of the woodwork for this kind of event
2) It can play maindeck RIP and even Energy Field if you want making it pretty good against the expected field

I think there will be far more Miracles than Enchantress, but not as much Miracles as you would think.

maharis

11-10-2014, 04:42 PM

I totally forgot about Affinity and UR Burn with Shocks. That are both decent possibilities to encounter early.

I should've mentioned Affinity. That deck is going to be a real thing in the early rounds especially. Get your Powder Kegs ready...

rlesko

11-10-2014, 05:00 PM

This makes me want to sleeve up Belcher. Typically a horrible choice in the NE due to soooo much blue, it feels like a deck that could troll a counterless meta easily.

Force of Will will be out in full force...the number of stifles and spell pierces will be down which is why combos with protection will be good.

WorstBandNameEver

11-10-2014, 06:50 PM

I'm anticipating a lot of burn and UR delver. I will be on enchantress. As some people already said, some of us will play this deck whenever we can.

Jon

11-10-2014, 06:53 PM

Chalice of the Void.

(nameless one)

11-10-2014, 07:33 PM

Chalice of the Void.

If only such decks could be consistent.

TheArchitect

11-10-2014, 10:11 PM

This makes me want to sleeve up Belcher. Typically a horrible choice in the NE due to soooo much blue, it feels like a deck that could troll a counterless meta easily.

Well, there will be a TON for FoW. But the delver decks have really trimmed back on discard, pierce and stifle. Its really just Daze, FoW, and Red blasts for interaction now. Any black-based combo deck should wreck them. A fast clock is really all UR delver has going for it against combo. A FoW will hardly even slow down something like ANT or Reanimtor.

I totally forgot about Affinity and UR Burn with Shocks. That are both decent possibilities to encounter early.

I distinctly remember at GP DC last year, doing some scouting in the first 2 rounds because of byes and seeing Burn, Affinity, Dredge and merfolk (partially because TNN just came out) together were AT LEAST 40% of the decks I saw. Because of the side events and "GP swag", GPs attract a LOT more casuals, legacy novices, and cross-format players than any SCG open or local high prized legacy event will.

nedleeds

11-10-2014, 10:20 PM

If I make it I'm Chalicing, the internet is instructing burn players to play Smelt.

iamajellydonut

11-10-2014, 10:40 PM

the internet is instructing burn players to play Smelt.

Well, I certainly dont see anything wrong with this.

FoolofaTook

11-10-2014, 10:51 PM

I'm anticipating a lot of burn and UR delver. I will be on enchantress. As some people already said, some of us will play this deck whenever we can.

Energy Field and Rest in Peace is going to be game over for a lot of people in the meta that is shaping up.

I'm also thinking that Bw Pox could be a great meta choice. Just splash white for Vindicate and Zealous Persecution in the SB and have at people.

iamajellydonut

11-10-2014, 11:11 PM

I'm also thinking that Bw Pox could be a great meta choice. Just splash white for Vindicate and Zealous Persecution in the SB and have at people.

The issue with Pox isn't that the meta needs to be the right temp. It's that Pox is a narrow and inconsistent pile of shit and without a viable gameplan or reach. Slapping in a few copies of Vindicate and Zealous Persecution does nothing to change this.

FoolofaTook

11-10-2014, 11:57 PM

The issue with Pox isn't that the meta needs to be the right temp. It's that Pox is a narrow and inconsistent pile of shit and without a viable gameplan or reach. Slapping in a few copies of Vindicate and Zealous Persecution does nothing to change this.

In this meta a resolved Trinisphere wipes out about two-thirds of the lists. Sinkhole, Vindicate, Smallpox and Wasteland follow Thoughtseize and Cabal Therapy until Liliana or a Trinisphere establishes a soft lock. Add in the mainstay of Innocent Blood and use Beseech The Queen to go get what is missing to stabilize. Use Abyssal Persecutors to finish things off.

The old Pox lists didn't have access to Liliana. She's a huge difference in terms of power because unlike Pox there's nothing awkward about using her at all. Also, don't use Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. Turning the opponents fetches into mana is a bad idea because they are going to run out of lands sooner rather than later given they give up 1.5 lands from their overall plan every time they fetch. Use Wastelands and a couple of Cabal Pits and 18 black sources to power the list. Use just 4 Marsh Flats and 4 Scrublands for the white splash.

It's a real beating against fair lists and this meta is overloaded with fair lists at this point. If a list wants to drop a creature T1 they're playing right into your hands. How many lists don't want to drop a creature turn 1?

HammafistRoob

11-11-2014, 12:09 AM

If more than 2 pox decks day 2, I will fly to wherever you are and shake your hand. The end.

Michael Keller

11-11-2014, 12:13 AM

I think if built properly and piloted smartly, a Pox deck could do some serious damage at this event.

nedleeds

11-11-2014, 12:50 AM

Trinisphere took a solid kick in the groin with the M15 delve rules.

Megadeus

11-11-2014, 01:50 AM

Between that and the printing of deathrite... Three ball seems weak

Also abrupt decay.

iamajellydonut

11-11-2014, 08:04 AM

I think if built properly and piloted smartly, a Pox deck could do some serious damage at this event.

It could. I'm sure that, on their way to a 2-3 drop, the Pox player could lock a few games and shit on their opponent and eat their opponent's first born son. The deck does have that potential. Unfortunately, it's more likely to hit a mull to six that features land, go.

PirateKing

11-11-2014, 08:11 AM

I'd see pox pilots as the landmines of the meta, not able to make day 2, but absolutely ending several opponent's day 2 prospects. Which is sort of what pox is for anyways, really.

iamajellydonut

11-11-2014, 08:12 AM

I'd see pox pilots as the landmines of the meta, not able to make day 2, but absolutely ending several opponent's day 2 prospects. Which is sort of what pox is for anyways, really.

I almost want to grind for byes on Friday, then play Eggs in the main event just to be an asshole.

Quasim0ff

11-11-2014, 08:28 AM

Well, I certainly dont see anything wrong with this.
Well, if people are packing smelt, I'd rather be the one on chalice...

Echelon

11-11-2014, 08:36 AM

Well, if people are packing smelt, I'd rather be the one on chalice...

Or Counterbalance, for that matter.

iamajellydonut

11-11-2014, 08:38 AM

The joke is that there are approximately seventeen viable anti-artifact cards in red, and Smelt is not one of them.

FoolofaTook

11-11-2014, 09:45 AM

Trinisphere took a solid kick in the groin with the M15 delve rules.

Most lists can only play 1 land a turn. If you have enough redundancy to knock out the early mana base and you can find your locks you can stay ahead of that unless you have a really slow finishing plan - like Mishra's and Bloodghast.

iamajellydonut

11-11-2014, 10:14 AM

Most lists can only play 1 land a turn. If you have enough redundancy to knock out the early mana base and you can find your locks

Again, shit you can do vs shit that will probably happen.

You can get Innocent Blood into Sinkhole into Trinisphere into untap into Wasteland into Liliana into random beats.

You could also get a Dazed Innocent Blood into Trinisphere into Wasteland into Swamp into Swamp.

nedleeds

11-11-2014, 12:24 PM

Most lists can only play 1 land a turn. If you have enough redundancy to knock out the early mana base and you can find your locks you can stay ahead of that unless you have a really slow finishing plan - like Mishra's and Bloodghast.

If you can get good hands and be mostly on the play over the 14+ rounds of the GP with a Chalice / Trinisphere deck then you'll do awesome. But the math just isn't with you, you are purposefully not playing 8 ancestral recalls, or a deck with 8 tinkers and 2 different draw engines. I've played chalice decks almost exclusively at Legacy events and basked in the glow of a few 5-0, 4-0, 6-1, starts ... eventually you'll lose the roll mull to 6 and be staring down some simian grunts Delver. That Delver will then naturally flip, he'll Daze all the wrong spells but it won't matter because all you are drawing are Ancient Tombs and you'll die.

Chalice on 1 on the play is amazing, and you'll ruin some peoples days and that's always fun but over a really long event you'll need to get very fortunate to not lose a few times to your own deck. Now if 15% of the field played Chalice we'd see it top 8 a bit more, but I don't think any more than a few % play chalice decks. Decks with Chalice and Blood Moon aren't as powerful overall but they do have 2 axis to attack a random field on, you could argue you're better off playing a Chalice / Moon deck since you have a better chance of getting 'free wins'.

But back to Trinisphere, it's just not what it once was. Being on the draw against a Deathrite is miserable. The Delve mechanic is good vs. it now. The chance of landing it turn 1 is pretty bleak and in the context of the stompy shell I can't pin it under Chrome Mox.

Quasim0ff

11-11-2014, 02:30 PM

Or Counterbalance, for that matter.
Well, I always rather be on counterbalance, but generally yeah ;)

rufus

11-11-2014, 02:49 PM

If storm and pure aggro decks are weak, Commandeer seems well-positioned in the format.

ESG

11-11-2014, 09:12 PM

The joke is that there are approximately seventeen viable anti-artifact cards in red, and Smelt is not one of them.

Smelt is pretty good if you have only 16 lands and aren't concerned about Chalice decks showing up. As for me, I wouldn't play a 16-land deck or Smelt.

Pastorofmuppets

11-11-2014, 09:35 PM

Energy Field and Rest in Peace is going to be game over for a lot of people in the meta that is shaping up.

I'm also thinking that Bw Pox could be a great meta choice. Just splash white for Vindicate and Zealous Persecution in the SB and have at people.

Can Pox run Toxic Deluge without it being suicide?

FoolofaTook

11-11-2014, 10:19 PM

Can Pox run Toxic Deluge without it being suicide?

As a singleton that you can find with Beseech the Queen. It's not very reliable but it gives the capability. I prefer to run a singleton The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale in the sideboard. A lot of the time you can knock even Elves and D&T off of their game plan early with Innocent Blood and Smallpox.

The list I've been grooming for GP NJ is actually Esper splash with 4 Treasure Cruise and 4 Vindicate. I keep pushing blue out and then putting it back in. I was trying Brainstorm as well at one point but it's overboard and it thins the disruption base too much. With no cantrips the list relies heavily on redundancy and 24 lands to avoid bad draws, even Brainstorm doesn't fix things well when tapping out to do something disruptive every turn is a priority.

Jelly's points about draw consistency are on target. That can't really be fixed by removing meat and potatoes for draw fixing. You want the meat and potatoes and you want to eat them each turn not go looking for food.

Plague Sliver

11-12-2014, 04:36 AM

rlesko

11-12-2014, 11:56 AM

twndomn

11-12-2014, 01:35 PM

Can we shift the discussion away from Pox, and back to NJ Meta? We all know a deck like pox can't win a 15 round event ;)

Had the tournament been last week, i think UR Delver would have dominated. However, I think a lot of people are hopping on board to the midrange control build rudy brikzsa piloted to a first place finish, and are cooling off UR delver (the obvious boogeyman in the game right now).

EDIT: If i was competent with storm or reanimator, i would play those decks in a heartbeat. miracles as always seems like a solid choice. BUG seems to be a bad call since there is likely to be a lot of budget burn and psuedo burn (UR Delver). I actually somewhat expect someone to take the tourney by storm with a classic rug delver list. stifle and daze and wasteland, oh my!

the lesson from rudy brikzsa is that lifegain works against UR Delver. Skull, firewalker, and baneslayer, that's my take-away. Also, some people play UR Delver for budget reasons. If you have FoW, Volcs, and few fetches, you play UR Delvers. If you only have fetches, you play Burn. In a field of thousands, that's something for you to take into account. You can't just sleeve up storm or miracles unless you've put your time/repetitions into it.

mishima_kazuya

11-12-2014, 01:48 PM

the lesson from rudy brikzsa is that lifegain works against UR Delver. Skull, firewalker, and baneslayer, that's my take-away. Also, some people play UR Delver for budget reasons. If you have FoW, Volcs, and few fetches, you play UR Delvers. If you only have fetches, you play Burn. In a field of thousands, that's something for you to take into account. You can't just sleeve up storm or miracles unless you've put your time/repetitions into it.

Most of the ur delver deck is modern legal. So it would make sense if someone who only recently got into Modern started asking around to borrow a few volcs and FoWs. Boom, about $100 in cards, borrow some volcs and FoWs, and then you have a shot of q'ing for the PT in a Legacy GP

Moosedog

11-12-2014, 04:14 PM

Shouldn't rule out people using burn or insert linear deck of choice because it’s straightforward to play and they don’t play legacy often. Not everyone makes decisions because of budget reasons.

ESG

11-12-2014, 09:19 PM

Shouldn't rule out people using burn or insert linear deck of choice because it’s straightforward to play and they don’t play legacy often. Not everyone makes decisions because of budget reasons.

For the Northwest, that linear non-Burn deck is commonly Reanimator. Over the past year, I've played against a lot of new Legacy players on that deck. The deck is straightforward and the power level is extremely high.

My guess would be that the most popular/populous deck at this GP will be UR Delver, and if I was going, I would make absolutely sure I had a good matchup against it.

MGB

11-16-2014, 08:36 PM

... I've played chalice decks almost exclusively at Legacy events and basked in the glow of a few 5-0, 4-0, 6-1, starts ... eventually you'll lose the roll mull to 6 and be staring down some simian grunts Delver. That Delver will then naturally flip, he'll Daze all the wrong spells but it won't matter because all you are drawing are Ancient Tombs and you'll die.

I love this quote so much. As a Chalice player in Legacy this is just the problem with the strategy in a nutshell.

Lejay

11-16-2014, 08:50 PM

I love this quote so much. As a Chalice player in Legacy this is just the problem with the strategy in a nutshell.
Well never 2 times without a 3 time like we say in France, I'll answer to you here as well. You will probably appreciate this video from about 28:12 to 29:00.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-C72MNooozw#t=28m12s
I am not sure if that's necessary to say it but that saying made me think a lot about sylvan plug since consistency is the advantage green chalice gets.

11-17-2014, 08:47 AM

I was quite surprised to see 0 Liliana of the Veil in the top 16. Effect of the new Delve meta or just happenstance?

Lemnear

11-17-2014, 08:50 AM

I was quite surprised to see 0 Liliana of the Veil in the top 16. Effect of the new Delve meta or just happenstance?

Liliana is shit against Pyromancer and hasty swiftspears

testing32

11-17-2014, 08:54 AM

Liliana is shit against Pyromancer and hasty swiftspears

And you need to play blue for brainstorm and red for pyroblast so there isn't a lot of room for BB.

FoolofaTook

11-17-2014, 09:41 AM

I was quite surprised to see 0 Liliana of the Veil in the top 16. Effect of the new Delve meta or just happenstance?

No main list discard in the top 8 except for the 4 Duress in ANT. BUG was targeted by Treasure Cruise just as surely as RUG Canadian was and TA died in the process.

ReAnimator

11-17-2014, 02:17 PM

No main list discard in the top 8 except for the 4 Duress in ANT. BUG was targeted by Treasure Cruise just as surely as RUG Canadian was and TA died in the process.

Targeted discard is not very good at all when 70%+ of the format is playing brainstorm.

Tammit67

11-17-2014, 02:30 PM

Targeted discard is not very good at all when 70%+ of the format is playing brainstorm.

Doesn't stop people for Hymn to Touraching me out of the event, or bringing in pithing needle for LED.

Discard is super awkward right now against the speed of UR delver and sensei's divining top.

11-17-2014, 02:41 PM

FoolofaTook

11-17-2014, 03:16 PM

On a different note, what are we to make of this: Grixis Control (http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=76144)? Odd to say the least that got to ~13-2. I guess he just outplayed people?

Good player, blue shell, list nobody could see coming or understand how to play well against in the limited opportunity they had to do so.

Cabal Therapy with a Young Pyromancer in play must have just wrecked people in the mid-game. Particularly after a Gitaxian Probe.

Richard Cheese

11-17-2014, 03:22 PM

On a different note, what are we to make of this: Grixis Control (http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=76144)? Odd to say the least that got to ~13-2. I guess he just outplayed people?

Why odd? List looks pretty rad to me, although on paper I feel like it wants a couple Dig Through Time, maybe over the maindeck spellbong or Sudden Demise.

11-17-2014, 03:29 PM

Why odd? List looks pretty rad to me, although on paper I feel like it wants a couple Dig Through Time, maybe over the maindeck spellbong or Sudden Demise.

Looks short on win conditions to me, in the sense of going over the top of things. Also, Dack has yet to really thrill me in Legacy, although, with the amount of Stoneforges running around he was probably pretty good. Just not something I was expecting to see get 13 wins. Of course, BTM10's point is probably about right, with YP and cantrips you might not need much else to win.

rlesko

11-17-2014, 04:27 PM

Doesn't stop people for Hymn to Touraching me out of the event, or bringing in pithing needle for LED..

umm...

Gheizen64

11-17-2014, 04:40 PM

On a different note, what are we to make of this: Grixis Control (http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=76144)? Odd to say the least that got to ~13-2. I guess he just outplayed people?

Don't underestimate Dack in a format with SFM, or with notion thief. With notion thief it's +2 is hymn + ancestral every turn lol.

TheArchitect

11-18-2014, 09:23 AM

By the way, the day 2 metagame break down is up, which is like the best paper statistics we ever get:

http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpnj14/d2meta

and round 14 breakdown:

http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpnj14/r14meta

The naming conventions are a little annoying. Like Eli's deck is apparently "grixis tempo", UR Golddigger is UR (not izzet?) control and Nic Fit is Jund Midrange (which is different from actual jund midrange).

Ellomdian

11-18-2014, 05:06 PM

Tammit67

11-18-2014, 05:29 PM

Doesn't stop people for Hymn to Touraching me out of the event, or bringing in pithing needle for LED..

umm...

I never said my opponent knew how his cards interacted with mine, just that discard was a poor choice that feels like it works.

Barook

11-18-2014, 08:26 PM

Let's sum this up:

UR Delver is expected to make up 30-35% of the field Day 1, only made up 20% of the field Day 2, and finished with just over 10% of the T8 with a single list.

Whereas Miracles made up 6% of the D2 field, and 25% of the T8.

TL;DR - UR Delver under-performed dramatically, especially for all of the "Best Deck" hype it got in the last 2 weeks.

EDIT: It gets even better - there is a SINGLE UR Delver list in the T16. Or, 6%.
UR Delver is a retard-proof budget deck that requires little format knowledge. It underperforming isn't too suprising in the grand scheme of things. People came prepared for it.

Miracles is a hard-to-play deck that rewards skill alot, so people bringing it are most likely pretty good with the deck. It performing above average yields no real suprises, either.

True performers were basically Jeskai Stoneblade and Miracles, while UWR Delver, Elves and Sneak and Show had a good showing, too. D&T performed average compared to its starting numbers and UR Delver sucked badly.