[Article] October 2016 Legacy Metagame Analysis

[Griselpuff]

http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/legacy-metagame-analysis-october-2016/

Enjoy!

I know a lot of you are hoping for more legacy content, so please reply to my question at the end with thoughts and suggestions

[Tormod]

Thank you :)

Good read

[Whitefaces]

Great article as usual, thanks! Looking forward to more. Knowing your role and when to switch gears is a subject I've been thinking about writing for a while, would be great to see it done.

[ESG]

Good to see you back, and thanks for crunching the numbers.

You should give Aluren a whirl. The deck is very strong. I expect it to be a bigger player now that there is a budget version. Also, I know you're aware of the Northwest anomaly -- three consecutive 1K wins is unheard of -- but I think it would be interesting to find out more about why certain decks are very popular in a given city or Legacy scene. Japan's tournament results, for instance, are often very different from European results, and the European results have always been pretty different from the regular Star City circuit.

[Griselpuff]

I think "regional bias" can be explained mostly through network effects. Anecdotally, I got into Delver because Dan Signorini kept crushing all comers with BUG Delver, so that led me to pick-up the deck. I'm sure a similar effect is occurring in Seattle due to Martin's finishes.

[Lemnear]

Bob, with all respect, but to me it seems a bit awkward that the numbers of Miracles in T8 and its metagame share rose (because of new, powerful printings for the deck and post-delve metagame shifts) and you claim the deck is fine despite all these numbers, because Miracles can now kill faster and more reliable than ever before, thus not going to time.

How make improved killcons a deck more fair/balanced in a metagame?

[Barook]

Bob, with all respect, but to me it seems a bit awkward that the numbers of Miracles in T8 and its metagame share rose (because of new, powerful printings for the deck and post-delve metagame shifts) and you claim the deck is fine despite all these numbers, because Miracles can now kill faster and more reliable than ever before, thus not going to time.

How make improved killcons a deck more fair/balanced in a metagame?
That one irked me as well. The Miracles part feels weakly-written, in a "Move along, nothing suspicious to see here!"-kind of way.

"Miracles outclasses the rest of the field, but rejoice! At least it's less likely going to time now!"

To go a bit more into detail what feels wrong with said section:

Furthermore, I think there are enough strategies and cards currently seeing play that are strong against the archetype, and I do not feel as behind against it with Delver as I used to.


Out of the tier decks, Predict Miracles is favored against Pyromancer Grixis Delver, Shardless BUG, Lands, and Elves. It is close to even against ANT, Death and Taxes, Sneak and Show, UR Delver, and Infect. It is unfavored against Eldrazi.
So your definition of "enough" is exactly one tier 1 deck it's unfavored against while it's favored/about even against the rest of the Tier field. :eyebrow: And before some people make claims about some magical Tier 2/3 Miracle slayer lists - those do not exist. Especially after Mentor being adopted, taking away game from stuff like 12 Post. Otherwise, its almost 2 years of utter domination would have been dented by now, but there's no end in sight.

The only reasons not to play Miracles right now are either being bored by the deck or not willing to shell out money for it. Everything else is gimping yourself.


Going back to Miracles, one of the key strengths of the deck lies in its flexibility. It has access to Blood Moon, Engineered Explosives, Wear // Tear and a variety of other tools to beat any of the cards that are good against it.
Aren't you contradicting yourself here? First you say there are enough cards that are good against Miracles, but then you state that Miracles has all the tools to beat said cards anyway. :eyebrow:

[Finn]

You guys are being too hard on him. There are some very good reasons that miracles is the best deck. Bob is [ED - bad autocorrect] simply telling us why. He is not the one taking a strong position on if it is too good or not. If you are seeing an argument, you are reading the argument into his words yourself.

I thought it was a particularly helpful article. The STATE OF LEGACY articles are easy to screw up, and Bob did not.

[Julian23]

From everything I know, Bob really hates Miracles. So anyone trying to read him being fine with it into the article is probably seeing things that aren't really there.

At least for me, when in was reading those lines about Miracles being somewhat ok, I just understood them as appeasement of the Pro-Miracle trolls.

[maharis]

You write, and I agree, that Grixis Delver is unfavored vs. Miracles. It seems like most of the pilots have decided to give up on even bothering to fight it too much by cutting Abrupt Decay and just shoring up every other matchup. It hasn't seemed to impact its metagame share too much.

[GreatWhale]

Bob, with all respect, but to me it seems a bit awkward that the numbers of Miracles in T8 and its metagame share rose (because of new, powerful printings for the deck and post-delve metagame shifts) and you claim the deck is fine despite all these numbers, because Miracles can now kill faster and more reliable than ever before, thus not going to time.

How make improved killcons a deck more fair/balanced in a metagame?

I think his point is that Miracles is a fair deck and the ONLY reason it would need a ban is if it was consistently making tournaments run late, with an improved kill con this is not a problem. I think his follow up about skill level is important is the argument, if a deck is super powerful but also difficult to pilot to optimal levels than this is fine and good.

[Quentin Coldman]

http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/legacy-metagame-analysis-october-2016/

Enjoy!

I know a lot of you are hoping for more legacy content, so please reply to my question at the end with thoughts and suggestions

Nice article! From where u get your data? Is this analysis only about US Meta or worldwide, just not really clear 4 me.

[Lemnear]

You guys are being too hard on him. There are some very good reasons that miracles is the best deck. Bob is refusing telling us why. He is not the one taking a strong position on if it is too good or not. If you are seeing an argument, you are reading the argument into his words yourself.

I thought it was a particularly helpful article. The STATE OF LEGACY articles are easy to screw up, and Bob did not.

Any statements, in regards to if a deck is fine (or not) as well as countermeasures, in a metagame analysis, maybe should be dodged like the devil does holy water. Barook pointed to the parts which were unfortunately put


Miracles is a fair deck ... with an improved kill con this is not a problem ... skill level is important is the argument ... deck is super powerful but also difficult to pilot...

Just leave this thread. This is not the B&R & Troll thread

[iatee]

Please everyone who doesn't agree that Miracles should be banned, leave the thread. Also can mods help us out here and rename the thread "Ban Miracles"?

[GreatWhale]

Just leave this thread. This is not the B&R & Troll thread

Excuse me? You are the one trolling about B&R.

Legacy is at an all time high for player skill being the biggest factor in tournament results, this is fantastic, if you are losing consistently, you need to improve your skill and knowledge of the format.

[IsThisACatInAHat?]

From everything I know, Bob really hates Miracles. So anyone trying to read him being fine with it into the article is probably seeing things that aren't really there.

At least for me, when in was reading those lines about Miracles being somewhat ok, I just understood them as appeasement of the Pro-Miracle trolls.
This statement is shockingly obtuse. 2 of the fastest responders in this thread were the most verbose anti-miracles whiners on the Source. Literally any thread referencing metagame share and miracles is like chumming for sharks for them, but it's the pro-miracle trolls who need appeasement?

What if, if you want to beat a terminus deck, you stop playing a deck built on attacking 7 times or casting empty the wardens on turn 1?

[iatee]

Someone should write a legacy metagame complaining analysis to help us better analyze the growth of Miracles complaining and to talk about the hot new tech in Miracles complaining.

[twndomn]

The article is not focused on Miracles, I don't understand why the discussion is about Miracles.

Play: 12 Post, Eldrazi Aggro, Goblins, Merfolk with Chalice, or Shardless BUG if you want to defeat Miracles. That's a long list, just pick one and move on.

[iatee]

Very naive reading, obviously the article is about Miracles. For those of us smart enough to read between the lines, it's incredibly obvious what message Bob was trying to send:

For once, I am okay with the current state of Legacy and would advocate for no changes to the Banned and Restricted list. Yes, Miracles is likely the best deck.But due to the recent adoption of Monastery Mentor, tournaments have generally ended on time without too much delay.

[Julian23]

Literally any thread referencing metagame share and miracles is like chumming for sharks for them, but it's the pro-miracle trolls who need appeasement?

No need to be insecure about it. There's tons of people out there who will happily throw around the empty "always a best deck", "skill-intensive", "just adapt" and derail any further discussion.




ithe pro-miracle trolls who need appeasement?

2 of the fastest responders in this thread were the most verbose anti-miracles whiners on the Source.

Not sure about your choice of words, but following the essence of what you said: q.e.d.

[IsThisACatInAHat?]

I think I see what you're trying to get at here

No need to be insecure about it. There's tons of people out there who will happily throw around the empty "always a best deck", "skill-intensive", "just adapt" and derail any further discussion.

[Brael]

http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/legacy-metagame-analysis-october-2016/

Enjoy!

I know a lot of you are hoping for more legacy content, so please reply to my question at the end with thoughts and suggestions

What always annoys me with Legacy content, is that Tier 1 is pretty narrow and makes up a large chunk of the format. There's another legit 20 decks to consider though in that remaining 33% of the metagame that you didn't cover. Maybe some articles covering some of the T2 stuff could be good. It's a lot to write about, but just telling people the decks are out there could promote the format and show that it actually really is very diverse. Most of the T2 decks can win a smaller event, or even T8 a larger one with the right prep so I don't think it's fair to just brush them all off.

[Stuart]

Thanks for the article, Bob! It'd be great to see the piece on knowing your role.


What always annoys me with Legacy content, is that Tier 1 is pretty narrow and makes up a large chunk of the format. There's another legit 20 decks to consider though in that remaining 33% of the metagame that you didn't cover. Maybe some articles covering some of the T2 stuff could be good. It's a lot to write about, but just telling people the decks are out there could promote the format and show that it actually really is very diverse. Most of the T2 decks can win a smaller event, or even T8 a larger one with the right prep so I don't think it's fair to just brush them all off.

While I also get tired of Tier 1/Brainstorm-centric content, it's probably best for a State Of The Union article to focus on the biggest, most-popular decks.

[Finn]

What always annoys me with Legacy content, is that Tier 1 is pretty narrow and makes up a large chunk of the format. There's another legit 20 decks to consider though in that remaining 33% of the metagame that you didn't cover. Maybe some articles covering some of the T2 stuff could be good. It's a lot to write about, but just telling people the decks are out there could promote the format and show that it actually really is very diverse. Most of the T2 decks can win a smaller event, or even T8 a larger one with the right prep so I don't think it's fair to just brush them all off.

This is a valid criticism, IMO. I have felt this way in the past. There really is a lot to choose from in Legacy, and this article does nothing to bring that to the light. However, for grinders and true spikes, what Bob wrote about is what they want to learn about. While there really are a lot of cool and interesting decks, this article seems to be less about "what is out there" and more about "what are you most likely to run into at the top tables".

Perhaps it is time for a much more ambitious piece about the entirety of Legacy. Hmm.

[Whitefaces]

How make improved killcons a deck more fair/balanced in a metagame?

He never said the kill condition is improved, he said it's faster. Read the article rather than between the lines.

[Griselpuff]

Well that escalated quickly :eyebrow:

Miracles is the best deck, period. However, it does have a few issues that prevent it from being played well by everybody

1) It is hard to play, there are a lot of decisions to make
2) You need to play quickly and ensure your opponent does the same
2b) Games may go long and it gets tiring
3) The playstyle, control - prison isn't for everybody

I'm personally not playing it because of the above reasons. And I also believe that you CAN be at least even against Miracles if you test the match-up and play the correct SB cards. Yes, Miracles has answers like Wear//Tear, Council's Judgment, Blood Moon and Terminus for a lot of the cards that are good against it. However, they also have a limited sideboard and can't fight everything at once. Their answers don't always line up correctly, and it's usually better to be the one presenting the threats and forcing your opponents to have the right answers.

Another reason that I'm against a ban is that I've come to terms with the fact that Legacy will likely always have a "best deck" from here on out. The cards are just too powerful and rogue strategies will never be as they were back in the 2000's. So if we ban Miracles, something else will likely take its place and we'll be complaining about that deck. As long as tournaments are finishing in a timely manner, I'm okay with the best deck being something that I personally wouldn't touch.

In the end, Legacy is now about playskill instead of brewing, which is good and bad.

[Lemnear]

I am not quite sure why my post got deleted If I just quoted posts existing.

[Dice_Box]

There is a thread for B/R bullshit. If you want to masterbate over your own never changing views feel free to take it there. While this article may not be perfect, it's a product of the format for which it is written. It's also an article seeking to look at the most popular decks currently in the format. This means that yes, it's going to talk about whatever deck you have a personal gripe with. That is not an invitation to bring here said gripe.

This thread is for discussions about the article, suggestions for changes to the article and future ideas for the author. While yes, threads morph and change as they grow, try and keep to those topics.

Dice.


I am not quite sure why my post got deleted If I just quoted posts existing.
Just don't want to dive too deep down that rabbit hole. Nothing personal.

[Brael]

This is a valid criticism, IMO. I have felt this way in the past. There really is a lot to choose from in Legacy, and this article does nothing to bring that to the light. However, for grinders and true spikes, what Bob wrote about is what they want to learn about. While there really are a lot of cool and interesting decks, this article seems to be less about "what is out there" and more about "what are you most likely to run into at the top tables".

Perhaps it is time for a much more ambitious piece about the entirety of Legacy. Hmm.

Starting with T1 is a fine intro to the format, but grinders and spikes can choose other decks too. I recognize that I'm pretty biased here because I play a few of those miscellaneous T2 decks that are always nameless, but I still think it's valid to at least talk about the decks so people know they're out there. Once you get out of the early rounds where you can run into some very random decks (or bypass that completely with byes) you run into the mid rounds where these decks hang around. Just look at what day 2's each GP.

There's a lot of strategies beyond just those T1 decks, and you will probably go against them in a couple rounds. If you want to top 8, you do need to recognize and beat them. And by that metric I think it's perfectly reasonable to talk about them. Maybe not with as much attention as the T1 decks get, but over the course of a couple followup articles, bringing up the 1-3% metagame decks could be very reasonable because chances are 1/3 of your games are going to be against that group of decks.

In addition to that, there's a large amount of Legacy play that happens outside of GP's. The fact is, there's only a couple large Legacy tournaments a year. The format has been pushed to a local level where people can viably play things that are capable of going 4-0 in a swiss but not necessarily 14-2 in a GP which again means that to play the format well you need to be familiar with a wide range of decks. Just take a card like Cabal Therapy... you're going to lose a lot of matches that you wouldn't otherwise lose if you're relying on that card and are paired up against unfamiliar decks.

[ESG]

In the end, Legacy is now about playskill instead of brewing, which is good and bad.

The NW scene has shown that it's possible to do both. Look at Phazonmutant's Miracle of Science deck (http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/showthread.php?30964-quot-The-Miracle-of-Science-quot-4th-at-CardKingdom-1K) or my Titania deck from the Treasure Cruise era last year (http://www.starcitygames.com/article/30088_Daily-Digest-Flower-Power.htmlyear). I agree that it's much harder now to brew successfully than it was in the late 2000s.

[Griselpuff]

And Splinter Twin top 8'ed Legacy Champs with 744 people!

These things can definitely happen, but it's much harder. In addition, most of these brews tend to be a flash in the pan instead of a format stalwart. Last successful brew would have to be Infect I think.

[ESG]

Great example! I had forgotten about Splinter Twin.

[ESG]

Aluren just won the SCG Legacy Classic in Milwaukee. Can't say it's just a NW phenomenon. Also, two pilots in the Top 8.