[Article] "The Unfair Mana Base" -- analysis of what makes decks fair/unfair.

[Plague Sliver]

Written by a good friend of mine, Cheng Zhi. Cheng is a key member of the Chinese Eternal scene and Sean Brown of MTG Goldfish did a stellar job of editing it.

https://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/the-unfair-mana-base

The article attempts to define "fair" vs. "unfair" decks using objective definitions of mana curves and statistical analysis, as opposed to the traditional subjective definitions floating around (e.g. "I'm trying to cheat a fatty into play" = "this is an unfair deck!"). There is intuitive reasoning here, but it's backed up with analysis of actual decks in Modern/Legacy to prove a point.

There is a TON of statistical analysis here of mana curves to demonstrate what our intuition tells us about whether a deck is fair. You may also find some unexpected conclusions in here -- conclusions that will allow you explore and view deckbuilding in different ways!

A highly technical piece, to be sure, but something different that we hope you'll enjoy reading.

EDIT: the original source data can now be downloaded here -- https://bit.ly/2IslDUp

[morgan_coke]

Oh, hey, that's cool. Not like I did it 12 years ago or anything. Twice. No biggie.


https://www.mtgsalvation.com/articles/16242-out-of-the-game-terms-metrics-and-mana


https://www.mtgsalvation.com/articles/16113-terms-metrics-and-mana-v2-0

[Jesture]

Sweet article James. I'm not sure where Cheng Zhi's work ends and Sean Brown's begins, but the whole thing flows nicely so I have to assume they both did a great job. Its always interesting trying to pair the catch-all phrases of this game with quantitative definitions, as the results always yield some cool findings like they did in this article. Would love to see a follow up piece or something similarly math-oriented in the future.


Oh, hey, that's cool. Not like I did it 12 years ago or anything. Twice. No biggie.


https://www.mtgsalvation.com/articles/16242-out-of-the-game-terms-metrics-and-mana


https://www.mtgsalvation.com/articles/16113-terms-metrics-and-mana-v2-0

You're right, it's not "biggie" because you guys were doing two totally different things. Props to you for totalling up mana producers and mana costs with examples from 12 years ago, but Cheng Zhi took it a step further by pairing it up with more data, meta-current examples and meaningful statistical analysis.

[Dice_Box]

I know I always talk about Land's but...

I am not sure all the metrics play out for Lands as advertised. Whole there are 44 lands in my deck, there are only 14 turn one Green sources and 13 Red. So while the mana ability would seem on paper to be the lowest in the format, we actually compare to most Delver decks in mana stability.

[morgan_coke]

@Dice, 14 is generally considered the minimum, but fully acceptable number for a T1 play of a specific color.

[Dice_Box]

I know. I just feel that people overestimate how effective Lands mana base is at actually making mana. The deck does run 34 Lands but it does not run 34 Mana sources and I feel the numbers in the article don't make that distinction.

[morgan_coke]

I know. I just feel that people overestimate how effective Lands mana base is at actually making mana. The deck does run 34 Lands but it does not run 34 Mana sources and I feel the numbers in the article don't make that distinction.

Then you'd honestly probably prefer reading my very old stuff. I went into that kind of difference pretty heavily.

[Jesture]

I wrote the articles twelve years ago dumbass. The examples were current then. L O fucking L.

Sure, if he had just revamped your article with current examples I still think it'd have merit. But in addition to that, he also included some new info on MUI, then presented it in the context of defining fair vs. unfair decks.

[morgan_coke]

Sure, if he had just revamped your article with current examples I still think it'd have merit. But in addition to that, he also included some new info on MUI, then presented it in the context of defining fair vs. unfair decks.

I'm 99% sure that guy had never even seen my articles, because they're 12 years old. I was making an "I did it before it was cool" joke.

[Plague Sliver]

I'm 99% sure that guy had never even seen my articles, because they're 12 years old. I was making an "I did it before it was cool" joke.

We will definitely take a look at your work! Thanks for letting us know -- appreciate it.

[JackaBo]

As much as I love data crunching and indicators of sorts I'm not sure how useful the MUI gini-coefficient really is.
There's no need for a mathimatical definition of unfair decks, since each persons intuitive categorization rarely is questioned.

In that regard I find Morgan's mana base indicators more useful. Number of lands, dorks, fetches to duals ratio and more IS up for debate and intuituve landcounts can be wrong compared to what your deck is trying to achieve.

[Plague Sliver]

The original source data can now be downloaded here, in case you want to have a look and play with it -- https://bit.ly/2IslDUp