What happened to the Chinese counterfeit apocalypse predicted in 2014?

[LOLWut]

In 2014, predictions of a Chinese counterfeit apocalypse were all the rage. Tabernacle had spiked to $700, Sea to $300, Volc to $250, Cradle to $150, LED to $90, City of Traitors to $75. People posted knowledge of Chinese counterfeiters who were ready to go nuts, and surely they would start to print money, once the price got even higher, flooding the market and making shockwaves.

Since those shocking highs, Tabernacle has gone from $700 to $3000, Sea from $300 to $800, Volc from $250 to $550, Cradle from $150 to $350, LED from $90 to $250, City of Traitors from $75 to $275. Are they not cashing in and printing those $100K Tabernacle sheets? Then what did the predictions get wrong?

[Crazy Eddie]

Who says that they haven't cashed in? If the counterfeits are really good enough, nobody would know the difference.

[thecrav]

I see them regularly. People talk openly at the shop about the best fakes and where to find them.

[bruizar]

Oh, it is happening. The market integrity is already compromised. This will be a gradual erosion.

[phonics]

As others have said, most people that get them play with them. They aren't 100% perfect so anyone spending that money on RL cards would be doing research or buying from someone that does that will spot it, but rarely will people spot them out when they are played across the table in sleeves. I would speculate that it is the smaller priced, sub-100$ modern cards that are less likely to be caught, both because they aren't mimicking old stock/ ink/ print and reduced vigilance for looking for fakes.

[LOLWut]

It may well be the case that counterfeits are here, but part of the prediction was about the scale, that there would be so many that card availability would ramp up, prices would drop, and there would be great uncertainty about purchases. That obviously hasn't happened. Maybe it just hasn't fully happened yet. Another thought is that many more cards could enter the supply, but that prices will continue to rise anyway because authentic cards would be the ones being examined and sold, while the new counterfeits would just be played with. I don't think that explains the current situation, though, as I don't get the impression that there are more people playing with Legacy cards than before.

[MorphBerlin]

Explanation is that all these claims are conspiracy bullshit. My guess is the intention was to bring the prices down by spreading fear or having an excuse why you are not taking part in the rally.

[Moosedog]

Explanation is that all these claims are conspiracy bullshit. My guess is the intention was to bring the prices down by spreading fear or having an excuse why you are not taking part in the rally.

Agree for the most part.

Are people printing fake cards that can slip by without careful examination? Yep.

Are people printing fake old reserve list cards that a discerning eye cannot tell apart? No.

[Phoenix Ignition]

Explanation is that all these claims are conspiracy bullshit. My guess is the intention was to bring the prices down by spreading fear or having an excuse why you are not taking part in the rally.

This is my take as well.

[Fuzzy]

The first rule of Fake Magic Club is that you don't talk about the Fake Magic Club.

The second rule of...

[Barook]

Andrew Jessup got a game loss for playing with fake Cavern of Souls and Canopies this weekend.

https://twitter.com/Gfabs5/status/1031204560470196226
(https://twitter.com/Gfabs5/status/1031204560470196226)
https://twitter.com/TheBetterJessup/status/1031138611524186112

There should also be a Goldfish article coming up soon with the current state of fakes.

I don't think the "apocalypse" has even started yet. It takes a while to erode consumer confidence.

[thecrav]

Andrew Jessup got a game loss for playing with fake Cavern of Souls and Canopies this weekend.
There should also be a Goldfish article coming up soon with the current state of fakes.


boop: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/the-fake-card-problem

[Barook]

boop: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/articles/the-fake-card-problem
I really like the part where he dedicates an entire article to stating how bad fakes are the game, yet uses screenshots with titles that allow anybody interested in fakes to google for the Subreddit about buying counterfeits. :really:

[Lord Seth]

I wonder if this problem would be lessened had Wizards of the Coast abolished the Reserved List and printed the high-value cards.

Sure, more recent non-Reserved cards are being counterfeited also. But I wonder if there'd be as much effort if the older, Reserved List cards weren't already so valuable.

[kombatkiwi]

I wonder if this problem would be lessened had Wizards of the Coast abolished the Reserved List and printed the high-value cards.

Sure, more recent non-Reserved cards are being counterfeited also. But I wonder if there'd be as much effort if the older, Reserved List cards weren't already so valuable.

It's less about the reserved list and more about wizards mindset toward the secondary market in general
There are so many $20+ Modern staples that could easily be reprinted to sell masters sets
EE
K Command
Colonnade
Runed Halo
Maelstrom Pulse
etc

WotC is just way too afraid of reprints causing prices to dip -> They don't reprint anything -> Prices go up -> WotC afraid of crashing prices and it just goes in a circle forever

But really when people are printing fakes of standard mythics you have to be honest and admit that there really isn't anything WotC can do to stop people attempting to fake their cards (unless they do something absurdly drastic like change the RRP of a box to $20 or something)

[Barook]

But really when people are printing fakes of standard mythics you have to be honest and admit that there really isn't anything WotC can do to stop people attempting to fake their cards (unless they do something absurdly drastic like change the RRP of a box to $20 or something)
The main problem is that WotC let fakes raise in the first place by making an attractive target. If cardboard becomes more valuable than gold, you're asking for trouble. There isn't much they can do now that the fake market has established itself.

[thecrav]

If cardboard becomes more valuable than gold, you're asking for trouble.

For reference:

* A magic card is slightly less than 1.8 grams (source (https://www.quietspeculation.com/2010/09/dream-cache-magic-card-measurements/))

* At this moment, the price of gold is $1,194.23/ounce ($38.40/gram).

A Magic card is worth more than its weight in gold at $69.12 .

For historic reference, the record price of gold was $1,895.00 per ounce (60.93/gram)in September 2011. A Magic card is worth more than its weight in gold at gold's highet historical price at $109.67

[Lord Seth]

But really when people are printing fakes of standard mythics you have to be honest and admit that there really isn't anything WotC can do to stop people attempting to fake their cards (unless they do something absurdly drastic like change the RRP of a box to $20 or something)

That might be true in the present, but I'm talking about beforehand. Sure, Standard-legal cards aren't on the Reserved List and are actively being printed. But would people have turned to them if it wasn't already lucrative to start counterfeiting the older cards that, due to the lack of reprints (either due to being on the Reserved List or just WOTC being annoying), would they have ever really turned to Standard?

[PirateKing]

That might be true in the present, but I'm talking about beforehand. Sure, Standard-legal cards aren't on the Reserved List and are actively being printed. But would people have turned to them if it wasn't already lucrative to start counterfeiting the older cards that, due to the lack of reprints (either due to being on the Reserved List or just WOTC being annoying), would they have ever really turned to Standard?

Yes I do think this could have been avoided.

There are two costs; start up costs that are significant and operating costs that are not significant. By allowing card prices to rise to the point that it became viable to invest in the startup expenses, they allowed the illegal market to become a thing. Had the priced never gotten that high they would have never started.
Now that we're here though, the only way to stop is to make the card prices drop below operating costs. Either by making cards more difficult to produce with holo-stamps and proprietary fonts, or the game tanks to Star Trek TCG levels. So far nothing has been beyond the capabilities of counterfeiter's to replicate it would seem. Seems this will just be the new normal until the game dies.

[Barook]

So far nothing has been beyond the capabilities of counterfeiter's to replicate it would seem.
I'm pretty sure the dot matrix hasn't been replicated so far. Same goes for actual card texture.

My prediction is consumer confidence is slowly going to erode over the years until fakes pass all tests (because it seems that the amount of tests a fake can pass vary from counterfeit to counterfeit). That's where the real shitshow begins.

[PirateKing]

I'm pretty sure the dot matrix hasn't been replicated so far. Same goes for actual card texture.

Well yeah the fakes from what I understand aren't perfect yet.
But sleeve playable and good enough for high level players to be embarrassed with disqualifications is pretty close to good.

What I meant more what what new technology could Wizard's include to end counterfeiters that wouldn't just delay them a month before they were back in business. Holo-stamps were supposed to be that thing, but seems even that is on its way to being solved.

[Humphrey]

i hope the counterfeits lead to a drastic change of the buisness model. selling packs is the same crap as lootboxes and basically gambling. Marketing Magic as a childs game with that gambling aspect is immoral in the first place. Just sell preconstructed sets and call it a day. Some cards would still be more valuable for trading aspects, but nothing will go through the roof like it does now. Reprint the chase cards everytime they peak the precon price (lets say 20$)
When it comes to the reserved list, it could defintely be abandoned without crashing the secondary market, because beta cards will always be more valuable than reprints, as we aleady see today. Its questionable that fakes will become indistinguishable from the real cards, because than it would probably still better to fake stamps or baseball cards.

[Ace/Homebrew]

Just sell preconstructed sets and call it a day.
How would you draft or play sealed under that model?

[Darklingske]

How would you draft or play sealed under that model?

Not. Eliminate those atrocious formats ;)

[Kanti]

i hope the counterfeits lead to a drastic change of the buisness model. selling packs is the same crap as lootboxes and basically gambling. Marketing Magic as a childs game with that gambling aspect is immoral in the first place. Just sell preconstructed sets and call it a day.

I stopped reading at "immoral" but forced myself to digest another sentence. Just finished throwing up. It sounds like you live a stale life that taste like cheese and crackers. We should ban Kinder eggs as well. After all, I'd never forgive someone for opening something nicer than my gift.

[MorphBerlin]

i hope the counterfeits lead to a drastic change of the buisness model. selling packs is the same crap as lootboxes and basically gambling. Marketing Magic as a childs game with that gambling aspect is immoral in the first place. Just sell preconstructed sets and call it a day. Some cards would still be more valuable for trading aspects, but nothing will go through the roof like it does now. Reprint the chase cards everytime they peak the precon price (lets say 20$)
When it comes to the reserved list, it could defintely be abandoned without crashing the secondary market, because beta cards will always be more valuable than reprints, as we aleady see today. Its questionable that fakes will become indistinguishable from the real cards, because than it would probably still better to fake stamps or baseball cards.

Your post is lacking the reason for WotC to do any of that since I am 99% sure that they are making more money with the current model compared to your dumpster fire of an idea.

[Humphrey]

uhm, the reason is the amount of packs you need to open to get the chase cards. that is the main reason for high prices of singles and the amount of boxes sold. the moment the chase cards become worthless because of counterfeits the whole buisness model collapses.

ofc the current model makes them more money, because its gambling and the bank always wins. It might be ok for a grown up to throw his money into this card casino, but its definitely a scam for kids. I remember lots of friends who threw all their pocket money into packs and only opened trash.

precons can still support limited formats, because then it just becomes some sort of cubedraft/sealed with multiples.

[Ace/Homebrew]

precons can still support limited formats, because then it just becomes some sort of cubedraft/sealed with multiples.
But it gets immediately solved and then stale for the next 3 months...

[Lord Seth]

i hope the counterfeits lead to a drastic change of the buisness model. selling packs is the same crap as lootboxes and basically gambling.Not really, because you (as far as I understand) can't trade or sell what you get from lootboxes. You just have to buy them and hope you get what you want, whereas with Magic booster packs you can actually trade them for other things... or just not bother with booster packs at all (outside of perhaps draft), and just get your cards individually.

I'm also unsure as to how switching to something like an LCG would have any effect on counterfeiting?


Marketing Magic as a childs game with that gambling aspect is immoral in the first place.Given that all the booster packs have "13+" written on them, I'm uncertain that it's really marketed as a child's game. You'd have a better point if you were talking about the Pokemon TCG (not necessarily a particularly good point, but a better one). Though I don't think there's been any real push by anyone to classify the Pokemon TCG as gambling...

[Humphrey]

I dont know Pokemon prices on singles. It only becomes gambling, when card prices are too wide spread. The moment you can open 100$ cards and the rest is basically worthless its not just random cards anymore.

[MorphBerlin]

uhm, the reason is the amount of packs you need to open to get the chase cards. that is the main reason for high prices of singles and the amount of boxes sold. the moment the chase cards become worthless because of counterfeits the whole buisness model collapses.

ofc the current model makes them more money, because its gambling and the bank always wins. It might be ok for a grown up to throw his money into this card casino, but its definitely a scam for kids. I remember lots of friends who threw all their pocket money into packs and only opened trash.

precons can still support limited formats, because then it just becomes some sort of cubedraft/sealed with multiples.

If counterfeits come as far as their inprint chase cards being undistinguishable the paper model will collapse as a whole and your preconstructed "solution" is garbarge as well because why would i bother spending money on that product when I can just get the counterfeit at 0.1 $? In no way would they make enough money just out of that to keep up their whole R&D. They would have to rely on their digital client or something then.

Also this will never happen if you know anything about the counterfeits

[Kanti]

ofc the current model makes them more money, because its gambling and the bank always wins. It might be ok for a grown up to throw his money into this card casino, but its definitely a scam for kids. I remember lots of friends who threw all their pocket money into packs and only opened trash.


And I remember lots of friends opening packs to cards like Thoughtseize, V. Clique, foil commons, etc. What exactly is your point? That toy manufacturer's want to make a profit? Are toys a scam by that logic, since their ROI is lower than buying MTG packs? All you seem to be talking about is ROI, which is far higher in MTG than in basically every other toy and/or card-game. Want to not gamble? Buy some packs and store them in your closet, I promise you they will be worth more than what you purchased them for in 5 years.

[mistercakes]

https://frinkiac.com/img/S07E12/186619.jpg

[Kanti]

Again, buy packs and throw them into closet. Sell in 5 years for a profit. Open the pack and you lose value, just like every other toy. Only you have a chance at opening a foil Goyf, whereas opening anything else... is just opening it.

[non-inflammable]

so i just got (off ebay) a city of traitors and 4 bitterblossom that were fake.
the seller "lightened" the photos in the listing so they looked real but they are darker than real cards.
the sheen off the fake cards looks different and the "feel" of the fake cards is too slick.

under a loupe, the fake cards' text is a combination of CMYK and a little fuzzy where a real card is crisp and just black overprinting.
the back of the fake cards is just too dark, overall.

there were other high dollar (snapcasters and thougthseizes) cards from this seller and it all looked legit including a 650 - 98% ebay rating...

seller's name is: jamisoarend0

[umbowta]

so i just got (off ebay) a city of traitors and 4 bitterblossom that were fake.

seller's name is: jamisoarend0

Your story is a little open ended. We're you knowingly buying fakes or what?

On another note, that guy on mtggoldfish claiming that fakes are bad for the game and for LGS's couldn't be more wrong. If you can't trust the online market to provide real cards where must you go? My LGS is the only place I trust anymore.

[non-inflammable]

Your story is a little open ended. We're you knowingly buying fakes or what?.

The seller had multiple staple cards up for auction but in such a way as to not scream "Fake!"
The images on ebay had been lightened to look like real cards (the fakes i received are dark).
I put my high-bid in on all of his staple auctions and won two auctions. I do/did and still now need a city of traitors.

I'm making all the right phone calls and sending e-mails to get my money back.

[umbowta]

The seller had multiple staple cards up for auction but in such a way as to not scream "Fake!"
The images on ebay had been lightened to look like real cards (the fakes i received are dark).
I put my high-bid in on all of his staple auctions and won two auctions. I do/did and still now need a city of traitors.

I'm making all the right phone calls and sending e-mails to get my money back.

And there we have it. If we can't trust an online marketplace we have to go to the LGS to buy cards. Along with that, selling our cards becomes more difficult unless we trade in to the LGS at about half value. I trust no one. Face to face with both parties inspecting cards and cash is the only way to be sure.

I hope justice prevails, non- inflammable.

As for me, I'll keep my real cards of high dollar value locked in a safety deposit box and play with proxies/fakes/ whatever.

[non-inflammable]

we have to go to the LGS to buy cards (and) selling our cards becomes more difficult unless we trade in to the LGS at about half value. I trust no one. Face to face with both parties inspecting cards and cash is the only way to be sure.

100%...
the relationships we create and foster through online forums or real life transactions will be incredibly important moving forward.
i know that selling for a good price will be hard, but getting half at the LGS will be easy - pick one!