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Cire
04-11-2019, 06:50 PM
Nourishing Lich is an (in)famous deck on these forums. The combo you get nefarious lich into play which draws you cards when you gain life. So pitching Autochthon Wurm to nourishing shoal draws you 15 cards then you win by pitching these to sickening dreams (you remove the cards you just pitched per the clause on lich...tendrils could deck you due to the life gain). This deck is not Nourishing Lich, but it does rely on nourishing shoal and autochthon wurm. The namesake card of nefarious lich is not in this deck and that is where this deck gets its terrible name.

The combo relies on having Allosaurus Rider and either Eldritch Evolution or the newly released card Neoform in your hand. The combo is simple, you get either Neoform or Eldritch Evolution into your hand, play Allosaurus Rider (or search for the Rider with Summoner's Pact) and then Evolve into a Griselbrand. Once you have Griselbrand in play you pay up to 14 life to get a nourishing shoal into your hand. Once you have nourishing shoal in hand, pitch autochthon wurm (or search for a autochthon wurm to pitch) and repeat the process until you've drawn your library. Then either play a Laboratory Maniac and draw till you win, or cast Lightning Storm.

Rough math on this combo was: the chances of drawing a single copy in your opening of a card you have "8" copies of: 1-HYPGEOMDIST(1,7,8,60) = 57.82%. For the combo, assuming you have all the land + accel + green cards, you should be able to get a Grisslebrand into play turn 1 about 33.44% of the time (chances of Rider/Pact + Neoform/Evolve) . Then you have about a 73.58% chance (1-HYPGEOMDIST(1,1,14,53)) of getting a nourishing in two activations and thereby having a chance to go off. So that's a 25.60% chance of a turn 1 win (with no protection and assuming land + accel + green cards).

Granted the deck, at the moment has no protection or draw to improve the percentage. This thread is to possibly improve on that - either through card choices or by slowing it down a turn. At the moment it's just a decently consistent turn 1 kill for Legacy. Additionally, we need to figure out the correct land count, the correct kill package, and anything else that we can possible remove to make room for protection. Why develop this combo? 1) The combo is a 2 card combo but is in effect cheaper than Oops all Spells (2-3 mana instead of 4, and you can run land), but it has no protection and is set to go off turn 1/2. 2) decently consistent - with a "bad math" turn 1 win percent of one out of every 4 games, 3) it is hilarious - it doesn't run Lich, but for those of us who enjoyed the old Nourishing Lich deck, pitching a wurm to shoal is the height of MTG.

Rough Draft

10 Lands

4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
2 Griselbrand

4 Summoner's Pact
4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Manamorphose
4 Lotus Petal

4 "Win Cards"

---

Edit

Current List:


4 Tropical Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Island
1 Forest

4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
3 Vine Dryad
3 Skyshroud Cutter
2 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Sire of Insanity
1 Carnage Tyrant
1 Griselbrand
1 Empyrial Archangel
1 Borborygmos Enraged

4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Lotus Petal
3 Manamorphose

rufus
04-11-2019, 08:01 PM
You could consider Borborygmos Enraged as a win card.

Megadeus
04-11-2019, 08:19 PM
One problem I see with borby is you need to basically assemble the combo early, plus find a way to get him into play early, then draw your whole deck. Because you can't draw a ton of cards to find the way to get him into play because then Evolution or Neoform may not be able to find him. Hence why in my modern list lightning storm is the kill condition (also modern doesn't have petal and therefore it's harder to cast laboratory maniac on your combo turn with only Spirit guides available). Also with lightning storm as a win condition you need to run more lands which is rough. Is there an argument for lab maniac and street wraith or something as the kill condition?

FTW
04-12-2019, 07:05 AM
Needs more Lich. Griselbrand is a lousy Lich.


Also what do these cards even do... tags added


4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
2 Griselbrand

4 Summoner's Pact
4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Manamorphose
4 Lotus Petal



So you're using Wurm/Chancellor to cast Allosaurus for free (just to have a 7-drop), then Evolving it into Griselbrand to draw more, then exiling other Wurms/Chancellors to Shoal to gain life and draw your deck?

Megadeus
04-12-2019, 07:33 AM
Needs more Lich. Griselbrand is a lousy Lich.


Also what do these cards even do... tags added


4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
2 Griselbrand

4 Summoner's Pact
4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Manamorphose
4 Lotus Petal



So you're using Wurm/Chancellor to cast Allosaurus for free (just to have a 7-drop), then Evolving it into Griselbrand to draw more, then exiling other Wurms/Chancellors to Shoal to gain life and draw your deck?

Yes. The upside is that it avoids the graveyard and with Borby it doesn't need to attack to win

Hanni
04-12-2019, 08:16 AM
Yes. The upside is that it avoids the graveyard and with Borby it doesn't need to attack to win

Why would you need to attack with Borbory to win? You just need to discard 7 lands...

Cire
04-12-2019, 09:03 AM
I think Megadeus was just trying to state that this is a turn 1/2 combo deck that doesn't use the attack phase or graveyard (, and my own observation, gets past Chalice @ 1).

Megadeus
04-12-2019, 09:19 AM
I think Megadeus was just trying to state that this is a turn 1/2 combo deck that doesn't use the attack phase or graveyard (, and my own observation, gets past Chalice @ 1).

Correct. I think this deck has more legs in modern for obvious reasons (no force of will). Also many of the current side boards that play stuff like leyline and crypt don't affect the deck at all as well as the prison decks attempting to use bridge as their lock piece. So it's a combo deck that Dodges grave hate, bridge, and chalice.

Cire
04-12-2019, 09:24 AM
Correct. I think this deck has more legs in modern for obvious reasons (no force of will). Also many of the current side boards that play stuff like leyline and crypt don't affect the deck at all as well as the prison decks attempting to use bridge as their lock piece. So it's a combo deck that Dodges grave hate, bridge, and chalice.

Agreed RE Modern, but I think the presence of ESG and Lotus Petal make this an interesting deck to tinker with a bit in Legacy as well. Obviously FOW is the big issue. The difficulty of improving this deck is first figuring out the minimum amount of green cards we can run to go off, let's say, turn 2 reliably. Once we figure that out we can probably start cutting to get some draw/protection.

Hanni
04-12-2019, 09:35 AM
Oh, oops. I misread what he said. I thought he was saying that Borbory was bad because it needed to attack. My apologies.

Megadeus
04-12-2019, 09:43 AM
Agreed RE Modern, but I think the presence of ESG and Lotus Petal make this an interesting deck to tinker with a bit in Legacy as well. Obviously FOW is the big issue. The difficulty of improving this deck is first figuring out the minimum amount of green cards we can run to go off, let's say, turn 2 reliably. Once we figure that out we can probably start cutting to get some draw/protection.
One upside to green Chancellor that I've found in the modern version is that it can make Mana plus pitch to Rider whereas ESG doesn't get to do that. Also Chancellor at worst is 7 life on shoal to get another Griselbrand activation. Obviously ESG has the upside of being pacted for and such, but I actually think Chancellor might be Superior here with ESG as a 1 of to pact for.

All that said and you've already got 4 of them so I'll just stop now

phazonmutant
04-12-2019, 06:37 PM
I was working on a similar idea too. Here's a slower, maybe more consistent take? I didn't love it in goldfishing; I think you might be onto something with the Chancellor.

2 Bayou
1 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Polluted Delta
2 Tropical Island
1 Underground Sea
4 Allosaurus Rider
1 Borborygmos Enraged
4 Brainstorm
2 Duress
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Neoform
2 Griselbrand
2 Gurmag Angler
4 Land Grant
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Ponder
1 Progenitus
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Thoughtseize

Maybe a faster list like yours is better?
2 Bayou
1 Forest
3 Tropical Island
4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Annex
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Neoform
2 Griselbrand
1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Land Grant
4 Lotus Petal
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Pact of Negation
4 Summoner's Pact
3 Wild Cantor

I did a very little bit of goldfishing and liked the Tangles but disliked how infrequently I got a hand with the required pieces.

FTW
04-16-2019, 06:52 PM
Maybe I'm missing something. What makes this more consistent than Nefarious Lich?

BBBB is hard, but resolving Allosaurus Rider (exile 2 green cards), then resolving Neoform/Evolution into Griselbrand and not having Griselbrand removed with Griselbrand-hate (which is very common) seems like a lot of hoops to jump through too. This build also can't run blue cantrips.

mistercakes
04-16-2019, 07:01 PM
I was working on a similar idea too. Here's a slower, maybe more consistent take? I didn't love it in goldfishing; I think you might be onto something with the Chancellor.

2 Bayou
1 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Polluted Delta
2 Tropical Island
1 Underground Sea
4 Allosaurus Rider
1 Borborygmos Enraged
4 Brainstorm
2 Duress
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Neoform
2 Griselbrand
2 Gurmag Angler
4 Land Grant
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Ponder
1 Progenitus
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Thoughtseize

Maybe a faster list like yours is better?
2 Bayou
1 Forest
3 Tropical Island
4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Annex
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Neoform
2 Griselbrand
1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Land Grant
4 Lotus Petal
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Pact of Negation
4 Summoner's Pact
3 Wild Cantor

I did a very little bit of goldfishing and liked the Tangles but disliked how infrequently I got a hand with the required pieces.

If you also add vine dryad and find one or two 5 drops that can steal games it might be worth it to go that route. You don't always need to kill on the spot.

FTW
04-16-2019, 07:22 PM
Vine Dryad could dig into Thornling, Sigarda, Host of Herons, Baneslayer Angel, Doom Whisperer, Dragonlord Ojutai, Icefall Regent, Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon, Thundermaw Hellkite...

Skithiryx off Neoform ends the game in 2 attacks. If you have a Petal/Bayou to give it haste, it wins next turn. Sigarda is green and almost impossible to kill without Terminus / Deluge. Doom Whisperer is huge and fixes draws. Baneslayer gains life and beats through Baleful Strix. Thundermaw has haste and also kills annoying things like Baleful Strix, Clique,... Icefall Regent locks down single threats like Emrakul.

Skyshroud Cutter is another option that doesn't cost you a card in hand.


//Mana: 24
4 Land Grant
4 Lotus Petal
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Tropical Island
1 Forest
1 Bayou

//Creatures: 21
4 Vine Dryad
4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Chancellor of the Annex
4 Autochthon Wurm
2 Griselbrand
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Doom Whisperer

//Tutors: 11
3 Worldly Tutor
4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution

//Lifegain: 4
4 Nourishing Shoal


The Pacts seem too risky, especially if you want a plan B to just cheat out a fatty instead of combo out.

Cire
04-17-2019, 10:02 AM
Instead of 5 drops with Vine Druid and Skyshroud - you can also do 6 drops since using neo form on a 4CMC you can search up a Goblin Dark-Dwellers and then immediately recast Neoform.

If you want to revamp the deck just to get out a 6 drop (or 8 drop) drop turn 1 - without the Nourishing Combo kill you can aim for:

Nourishless & Lichless

10 Lands

4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Vine Dryad
4 Skyshroud Cutter
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
2 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
2 5 CMC Targets
2 6 CMC Targets (Sire of Insanity)
2 8 CMC Targets
2 [Open]

4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Manamorphose
4 Lotus Petal

You can arrange your targets for best turn 1 drops against whichever decks. Per previous math getting one of your targets turn 1 seems to be simply 57.82%.

Edit - If you want to slow down a turn, I think we can get rid of Chancellor. That will give us 6 free spots for protection.

Edit 2 - played some rounds with this. Lack of protection is a huge problem but getting a target into play early is really fun. Miss having the nourishing combo in though so put it back in with the following edits:

Back to Lichless

+4 Wurm
+4 Shoal
-2 [Open]
- 1 Skyshroud Cutter
- 1 Skyshroud Cutter
2 Grisslbrand as 8 CMC Targets
1 Borborygmos Enraged
-2 [ 5 CMC Targets]
-1 SSG
-1 Manamorphose

With this the plan is essentially to either combo out turn 1 or to get out Sire of Insanity Turn 1.

Cire
04-22-2019, 04:44 PM
Just reporting, I've been running the "Back to Lichless" version and have been getting either kill or sire on insanity turn 1 around 60% of the time, as expected. Combo fizzels way more than you expect (although not more than what math told us), so if you have the choice between sire and combo sometime you still pick sire. Additionally, game 2 I've been essentially boarding out the combo for the wurms and the shoals for Duress/Thought Seize, which is nice. Not sure this is better than reanimator (if someone could fill me in on their turn 1/2 percentages I would be much appreciated).

FTW
04-22-2019, 05:02 PM
Not sure this is better than reanimator (if someone could fill me in on their turn 1/2 percentages I would be much appreciated).

There was never any thought this could be better than Reanimator or Tin Fins.

Wurm-Shoal was a fun idea but never competitive. The question is if it's better than the Lich version. How high is the fizzle rate? How many opening hands are unkeepable?

Cire
04-22-2019, 07:12 PM
Off "Back to Lichless" version, Sample of 10 hands goldfishing:

1) Mulligan to 5 cards - Allosaurus Rider, Neoform, Elvish Spirit Guide, 2 lands. Pass turn. second turn draw into nourishing (your choice now to get sire of insanity or wait one more turn, if you draw into another green card you may very well win)
2) 2 Allosaurus Rider, Elvish Spirit Guide, Land, Wurm, Vine Dryad. Eldritch Evolution. Pass turn. Second turn draw into lotus petal, win turn 2.
3) Wurm, Allosaurus Rider, 2 Elvish Spirit Guide, 1 Wurm, Skyshroud Cutter, Neoform. Turn 1 win hand.
4) Muligan to 6 cards - 3 land, 1 vine dryand, 2 eldritch evolution. Pass turn. Draw Chancellor, Pass turn. Draw a land. 3 lands, cast vine dryad for a turn 3 sire of insanity (not great - but maybe run other 6 mana targets?)
5) Land, Neoform, Manamorphose, Allosaurus Rider, Skyshroud Cutter, Elvish Spirit Guide, Vine Dryad. Turn 1 your hcoice of sire of insanity or try your luck with the combo - but no nourishing or wurm already in hand makes it less likely.
6) Mulligan into oblivion - losing hands all of them.
7) SSG, ESG, 2 Neoform, 2 Nourishing, Rider. Pass the turn. Draw into land - combo off. Turn 2 kill.
8) Mulligan to 5 - petal, wurm, rider, neoform, land. Pass the turn - draw sire of insanity. Pass the turn - draw wurm, get out Grisslbrand turn 3. You cannot go for combo kill - you used up too many wurms. You can only hope to win off Grisslbrand. At this point we may want to consider another target during this circumstance.
9) Mulligan to 5 - Petal, Manamorphose, Chancelor, Rider, Neoform - you have enough for turn 1 Grisslbrand.
10) Land, Petal, Manamorphose, Skyshroud Cutter, Neoform, Griselbrand, Wurm - go for turn 1 Sire of Insanity.

Rule for mulliganing is mulligan until you have Neo/Evolution + Vine/Cutter/Rider in hand - the mana will come up otherwise. Once you mulligan to 5, you are aiming for Neo/Evolution OR Vine/Cutter/Rider in hand and mana. The other piece, if not in your hand already - you have to rely on luck. Mulligan to 4 if desperate but below 4 doesn't really have many hands that can "go off" by turn 3.

FTW
04-22-2019, 08:37 PM
That actually seems pretty consistent with the Sire back-up plan.

Be careful with some of the hands... Neoform costs UG so you need a blue source to cast it. Double ESG (e.g. hand #3) can't cast it. It just makes a 1/1 Allosaurus FTL. Some of the "land + green source" hands may not cast it unless that land turns into Tropical Island (which is why you probably want a high % of fetches in your lands, so you can fetch Trop easily).

Cire
04-23-2019, 11:49 AM
That actually seems pretty consistent with the Sire back-up plan.

Be careful with some of the hands... Neoform costs UG so you need a blue source to cast it. Double ESG (e.g. hand #3) can't cast it. It just makes a 1/1 Allosaurus FTL. Some of the "land + green source" hands may not cast it unless that land turns into Tropical Island (which is why you probably want a high % of fetches in your lands, so you can fetch Trop easily).

That is very true.

Btw, this is the list I'm goldfishing (it is slightly less consistent than above due to only singletons but I feel it gains more from the situations where you don't want Grisle or Sire).

4 Tropical Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Island
1 Forest

4 Allosaurus Rider
4 Autochthon Wurm
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
3 Vine Dryad
3 Skyshroud Cutter
2 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Goblin Dark-Dwellers
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Sire of Insanity
1 Carnage Tyrant
1 Griselbrand
1 Empyrial Archangel
1 Borborygmos Enraged

4 Neoform
4 Eldritch Evolution
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Lotus Petal
3 Manamorphose


Currently, the other targets are the ones that can hit the hardest and have the most protection rather than any special abilities (plus I leaned on them being green just in case you need to discard them), could definitely use advice on what else to replace them with.

Edit - FYI, currently experimenting with putting summoning Pact back in n some numbers to up turn 1 percentage and improve combo pecercentage (since it can search for the wurm or the enraged.)

With the following edits above:

+2 Summoner's Pact
- 1 Chancellor of the Tangle
- 1 Manamorphose

30 goldfishing hands:

1 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 1 Pact Combo
2 No Mulligan - Turn 2 Pact Combo
3 No Mulligan - Turn 3 Sire of Insanity or Sigarda
4 No Mulligan - Turn 2 Sire of Insanity
5 No Mulligan - Turn 2 Pact Combo
6 Mulligan to Oblivion
7 Mulligan to 5 - Turn 1 Pact Combo
8 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 1 Combo without Pact
9 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 3 Combo without Pact
10 Mulligan to Oblivion
11 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 1 Sire of Insanity
12 Mulligan to 4 - Turn 2 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan
13 Mulligan to 3 - Turn 3 Combo without Pact
14 Mulligan to 4 - Turn 4 Combo without Pact
15 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 1 Pact Combo
16 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Combo without Pact
17 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Sire of Insanity
18 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Sire of Insanity
19 Mulligan to 5 - Don't draw into anything I need
20 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Combo without Pact
21 Mulligan to Oblivion
22 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Sire of Insanity
23 No Mulligan - Turn 4 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan (should've mulliganed)
24 Mulligan to Oblivion (should've kept a weak hand somewhere)
25 Mulligan to 6 - Turn 2 Combo without Pact
26 Mulligan to 5 - Turn 3 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan
27 Mulligan to 4 - Turn 2 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan
28 Mulligan to 5 - Turn 2 Pact Combo
29 No Mulligan - Turn 1 Combo without Pact
30 No Mulligan - Turn 2 Sire of Insanity or Carnage Titan

mistercakes
05-02-2019, 10:30 AM
can we work on modifying the modern version so that it will benefit from legacy additions:

// 60 Maindeck
// 17 Creature
4 Allosaurus Rider
1 Autochthon Wurm
4 Chancellor of the Tangle
3 Griselbrand
1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide

// 13 Instant
1 Crimson Wisps
1 Lightning Storm
3 Manamorphose
4 Nourishing Shoal
4 Summoner's Pact

// 20 Land
4 Botanical Sanctum
2 Breeding Pool
3 Forest
1 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Stomping Ground
4 Temple of Mystery
1 Windswept Heath

// 10 Sorcery
2 Eldritch Evolution
4 Neoform
4 Serum Visions


so what does legacy have to offer here?

brainstorm, ponder, fow, elvish spirit guide, daze? show and tell? vine dryad (as mentioned earlier in the thread)

wondering how far we actually have to deviate from this original list.

thoughts?

Cire
05-02-2019, 05:27 PM
I mean compare to the previous list I posted? The legacy list, at least my version, aims to have the Sire of Insanity back up plan, and runs less lands and Lotus Petal and ESG. Probably the only real difference between them.

angelbaka
05-07-2019, 01:38 AM
So, I've been playing around with this list and think I have a few improvements to offer/note:

First, Living Wish seems *super great* here, for a couple reasons: It can fetch an allosaurus rider from the board (copies 8-X of a combo piece), it allows you to move Lab Man to the board (upping the green count) and it lets you run Children of Koloris in the board, giving you more Nourishing Shoal effects (and a Tin Fins impersonation!) (The problem with this plan is that the amount of mana you can generate after drawing your deck starts to be a real issue).

I'm not sold on running any number of Autochthon Wurm in the main. Nourishing Shoal is already a fair amount of relatively useless deck slots devoted to a combo that has a disturbingly high chance to fizzle. Between Chancellors and spare Riders I don't really think gaining more life is the most important thing to do. The Children of Koloris plan from above also helps offset this deficit.

Why aren't we running cantrips and Force? We already want blue for Neoform (and thus have 4 blue cards); playing 4 brainstorm and 4 ponder seem like a no-brainer to me. Brainstorm also lets you put fatties back into the library for neovolution, especially important for Borgy players to get that wincon out. Speaking of Borgy, I think he's infinitely better than autochthon since he serves some purpose other than being green and high CMC while still netting you more than one Grisel activation (although it's way less consistent, sure, but how many games are we losing to having useless cards like autochthon wurm in the main?) Speaking of Borgy, Tidespout Tyrant is also an 8-drop and is stupid good against most hate for Gbanned.

You can play some number of Land Grant to replace some number of fetches and increase the green card count.

OP: Your hypergeo math is wrong. 1-Hypergeo(1,7,8,60) is the odds of drawing any number of the 8-of *except exactly one*. You want =1-HYPGEOM.DIST(0,7,8,60, FALSE()), the odds of drawing any number except 0 of the 8-of, which is roughly 65%. (I'm using libreoffice, so my syntax might be slightly different? The point is you want 1-p(0 successes), not 1-p(1 success).) This means you have a roughly 42% chance to have both a allosaurus/pact and a neoform/evolution in your opener BEFORE MULLIGANS. (I think that number is also generous because to get the real value you'd need to do a multivariate hypergeo dist and they're complicated (kinda) and involve dividing really really big numbers, which I'm not confident in excel/LO's ability to do with reasonable rounding error and without at least rough simulation to confirm.) Also note that depending on your mana loadout this is not at all the same as a t1.

The hypergeo for the number of green cards you want is =1-HYPGEOM.DIST(1,7,{X},60, TRUE()), where {X} is the number of green cards minus 1 (because one is the rider you're casting) in your decklist. (sidenote: the cumulative setting actually doesn't matter in the first example, as at 0 successes there's nothing to sum; but in the second you MUST use cumulative to get an accurate number as written, because that hypergeo formula basically works out to the probability of drawing >the number of successes entered (1 here; i.e., two or more green cards). end sidenote.) Milestones for that math:
>14 -> >50%
>20 -> >75%
>27 -> >90% (although 26 = ~89.5)
>31 -> >95%
>38 -> >99%

Also, Summoner's pact seems like an autoinclude for Allosaur-fueled versions. The evolve-into-a-six-drop versions have two free creatures to use, so it's less necessary there (and significantly worse, as they don't just win the game), but when you want a g-daddy I think you have to play it. It's also ridiculously powerful, being simultaneously a combo piece and pitchable for the rider and mana for the combo AND a creature to pitch to Shoal once you're comboing. It just does literally everthing in this deck.

I think that being an 8/8+ combo, we should be taking build queues from Sneak and Show and in large part trying to play a similar, faster game than they do. This is somewhat hampered by needing at least 6 more slots devoted to the combo in order to win on the turn we play it, but that disadvantage may or may not be balanced by speed and power. Time will tell, I guess.

mistercakes
05-07-2019, 04:18 AM
what's your current living wish list?

Cire
05-07-2019, 10:43 AM
@angelbaka: Thanks for all the great points! In terms, and just for example the last list I posted, what are your suggestions? I gather something close to:

-4 Autochthon Wurm
+4 Living Wish
-1 Allosaurus Rider
+1 Open

SB
1 Wurm?
1 Children of Korolis
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Allosaurus Rider
1 Something for Enchantments/Artifacts?
10 Other

RE: FOW/Blue - I would love to play FOW and blue cantrips, but what would I be taking out in the deck - look at my latest list, which 12 cards would I be able to take out?

mistercakes
05-07-2019, 10:57 AM
You can try pact of negation if it's a turn 1 or turn 2 deck, unless if you want to use Fow defensively.

FTW
05-07-2019, 11:12 AM
You could leave 1 Wurm main to tutor with Pact. You won't always have Living Wish mana while comboing off and in need of life, or Wish could get countered.

Cire
05-07-2019, 02:15 PM
Thing about Pacts is that if you go off Pact you are aiming for combo win - without pact you can fizzle and still have Grizzel out to beat face and hopefully win the game.

@FTW: Good point on Wurm.

I'll have to test how often we fizzle on the combo win though with wish . . . Otherwise, as of the latest list, the win %s are (after 100+ goldfishing):

Turn 1 Sire: 18%
Turn 1 Combo: 24% (Fizzle Rate in testing about 30%. It is about 50-50 in terms of whether pact kills you, or you are left with Grizzle on the board.)
Turn 2 Anything: 26%(about 50-50 in terms of Sire or Combo at this point. Fizzle Rate is roughly the same)
Turn 3 Anything: 16% (about 90-10 in terms of Combo to Sigarda (or other 6 target) since Sire is useless at this point. Current target (tyrant) may be underwhelming.)
Turn 4+/Mulligan to Oblivion: 16%

So not great-ish - the aim is to foremost decrease the fizzle rate and decrease the "Turn 4+/Mulligan to Oblivion" percentage. Maybe the living wish plan will help in both those fronts. In terms of protection and blue draw . . . honestly not sure at all waht to do about that.

Edit - Note: I don't know why the combo % is so much higher than the Sire %, the numbers would lead me to believe that the reverse would be true. Perhaps this is because I subconsciously mulliganed towards the combo? Additionally, if you so desire - if you didn't pact for the rider and you're using Evolution you could just get Sire instead . . .

angelbaka
05-09-2019, 01:39 PM
The list I'm currently testing is something like this:

3 [VMA:321] Tropical Island
4 [EXP:25] Misty Rainforest
4 [EXP:17] Polluted Delta
4 [ME2:159] Elvish Spirit Guide
4 [NPH:106] Chancellor of the Tangle
4 [TMP:294] Lotus Petal
4 [MMQ:61] Brainstorm
4 [MMA:56] Pact of Negation
4 [WAR:206] Neoform
4 [EMN:155] Eldritch Evolution
3 [CSP:101] Allosaurus Rider
4 [A25:189] Summoner's Pact
2 [AVR:106] Griselbrand
3 [JR:37] Living Wish
4 [MMQ:255] Land Grant
2 [NPH:118] Noxious Revival
3 [UMA:175] Nourishing Shoal
SB: 1 [TSP:8] Children of Korlis
SB: 1 [ISD:61] Laboratory Maniac
SB: 1 [CSP:101] Allosaurus Rider
SB: 2 [DST:21] Echoing Truth
SB: 1 [TMP:330] Wasteland
SB: 2 [WWK:132] Bojuka Bog
SB: 2 [WAR:220] Tamiyo, Collector of Tales
SB: 1 [DIS:34] Tidespout Tyrant
SB: 4 [A25:222] Chalice of the Void // SB: 4 [JR:83] Force of Will // SB: 4 [LRW:79] Ponder

The list I was trying before I made the above post looked something like this:

3 [VMA:321] Tropical Island
1 [EXP:25] Misty Rainforest
1 [EXP:17] Polluted Delta
4 [ME2:159] Elvish Spirit Guide
3 [NPH:106] Chancellor of the Tangle
4 [TMP:294] Lotus Petal
4 [MMQ:61] Brainstorm
4 [LRW:79] Ponder
4 [JR:83] Force of Will
3 [MMA:56] Pact of Negation
4 [WAR:206] Neoform
4 [EMN:155] Eldritch Evolution
3 [CSP:101] Allosaurus Rider
4 [A25:189] Summoner's Pact
2 [AVR:106] Griselbrand
3 [UMA:175] Nourishing Shoal
3 [JR:37] Living Wish
4 [MMQ:255] Land Grant
2 [NPH:118] Noxious Revival
SB: 1 [TSP:8] Children of Korlis
SB: 1 [ISD:61] Laboratory Maniac
SB: 1 [CSP:101] Allosaurus Rider
SB: 2 [DST:21] Echoing Truth
SB: 1 [TMP:330] Wasteland
SB: 2 [WWK:132] Bojuka Bog
SB: 2 [WAR:220] Tamiyo, Collector of Tales
SB: 1 [MMA:56] Pact of Negation
SB: 1 [DIS:34] Tidespout Tyrant
SB: 3 [A25:222] Chalice of the Void

The second list had a pretty solid T1 Griselbrand rate but I wasn't super thrilled with how often I drew 14 and died to pacts. The odds are probably fairly low but... meh. I haven't really done any testing at all with the first list yet and still think there's probably a lot of room to play with the second.

There's also almost certainly some amount of value to be gained from testing a stifle variant (especially since the new split-card stifle in one of the recent sets lets us play more stifles without hurting the green count too much) but I haven't had time to test that either. The second list is almost certainly thin on mana sources; I play the Noxious Revival to act as extra copies of Lotus Petal when comboing off (the deck can only make 9 mana without chancellor on a T1 combo, wish+ lab man is 5, wish + children is 3, and comboing is 2/3), but I haven't found any other good free sources of mana that are maindeckable).

Both lists need more testing, but this is where I'm at right now.

Cire
05-09-2019, 02:04 PM
Very interesting, you're going all in on the Combo, ignoring the Sire backup plan that my list has. What is your fizzle rate once you get grizzel in play?

mistercakes
05-28-2019, 01:29 AM
// 60 Maindeck
// 8 Artifact
2 Zuran Orb
4 Lotus Petal
2 Chrome Mox

// 4 Creature
4 Elvish Spirit Guide

// 12 Enchantment
4 Lich
4 Lich's Mastery
4 Nefarious Lich

// 19 Instant
4 Soul Spike
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Weather the Storm
3 Life Goes On

// 14 Land
8 Swamp
2 Lake of the Dead
4 Bayou

// 3 Sorcery
2 Grapeshot
1 Tendrils of Agony


still haven't figured out a better from decking myself and didn't really want to go lab man. any ideas? tendrils can't actually kill if it means i'll get decked.

Cire
06-03-2019, 10:10 AM
I think lists with Lich belong in the actual Nourishing Lich thread - this deck is more for the combo with Neoform/Eldritch Evolution into Sire of Insanity or into the Combo Kill for Grisslebrand. The name was just a fun reference to the Nourshing Shoal usage that the combo portion of this deck employs, which was used in a similar context in the Original Nourshing Lich deck.