What guarantee is there that fakes that pass all the tests aren’t already out there?

[Clark Kant]

If such fakes are out there, they would almost certainly be slowly dripped into the market to not crash prices, while the forgerers simultaneously flood the market with obvious fakes to make people feel more secure about buying the fee cards that do pass the light and dot tests.

At the end of the day, its just ink printed on paper. The reserve list cards were printed when magic was a small hobby. With how valuable reserve list cards are, it would be worth it for forgerers to obtain or reverse engineer the exact same types of paper and printers used to print the first magic cards. How it could be impossible to reverse engineer printing techniques from the 90s?

The methods/tests to detect fakes are common knowledge which means that forgerers know what they need to modify in ordet to pass those tests.

It’s inevitable that with machine learning and other advanced techniques, counterfits that are indistinguishable from genuine cards will arise. They are probably technically feasible even now.

With singles of power 9 going for tens of thousands of dollars, it is absolutely worth the time and effort it would take for counterfeiters to perfect the process and make counterfeits that pass all the common tests.

Imo, there is a very high chance that such forgeries already exist, and we have no way to know if they are very slowly dripped into the market to not plummet card prices, while forgerers also flood the market with obvious fakes to make people feel more secure in the cards that pass all the tests.

[Barook]

IIRC, the type of printer (and/or paper) used to make the original cards aren't used anymore, so it's kinda hard to replicate it.

[Clark Kant]

IIRC, the type of printer (and/or paper) used to make the original cards aren't used anymore, so it's kinda hard to replicate it.

They would only need to get their hands on a single printer from back then, or even just the blueprints for that printer, in order to be able to easily reverse engineer it. But even barring that, machine learning would let them create a printer that prints in the same manner. Manufacturing the same type of paper would be even easier.

[Maximus]

I already swapped out my duals for proxies. No one can tell them apart. I can't either, I only know by keeping them separately.

I currently play "beta duals" in my deck. No one can tell those are fake either, including a handful of judges. They just check for the CE/IE stamp and shrug when it's not there.

Of course, I only play locally with my friends right now since paper events are gone.

[S1N1STER]

Manufacturing the same type of paper would be even easier.

The chemical engineering department where I received my PhD had a paper mill and focus on pulp and paper engineering, and having briefly worked in a paper mill while pursing my degree, easy is not how I would describe the manufacturing process.

[Clark Kant]

The chemical engineering department where I received my PhD had a paper mill and focus on pulp and paper engineering, and having briefly worked in a paper mill while pursing my degree, easy is not how I would describe the manufacturing process.

I am not saying that manufacturing paper is easy.

I am saying that if a company in the 90s was able to mass manufacture a type of paper, a resourceful company with modern techniques could find a way to manufacture that same type of paper.

[FourDogsinaHorseSuit]

There isn't.
There is, however, a good test though for people talking out of their ass about it: Just look for the word "loupe" in their answers.

[non-inflammable]

I was a commercial graphic artist for almost 25 years. I even sent an application to WOTC...
The variables to create good fakes are humongous. However, I have the technical understanding to do the pre-press work.
I even remember the line screen and DPI for ABU cards.
Getting the paper right, the sheen, the inks, the color, true black (not CMYK) black, etc...

A long time ago, I had access to a small ABdick press and I surely wanted to try but I never invested the time and energy.
I've seen good fakes that even passed my loupe test but did not pass other "tests".

[ESG]

It’s inevitable that with machine learning and other advanced techniques ...

You have no idea what you're talking about. There is no "perfect" fake, and this is an irrational fear. These are physical cards that were printed decades ago. You can't print cards today and have them be indistinguishable from cards printed in 1993. Everything is different.

[FourDogsinaHorseSuit]

You have no idea what you're talking about. There is no "perfect" fake, and this is an irrational fear. These are physical cards that were printed decades ago. You can't print cards today and have them be indistinguishable from cards printed in 1993. Everything is different.

This isn't true. Of course you can. These cards weren't given to us wholly formed by God, and whatever techniques were used to create them once can be used to create them again and any differences dismissed as aging.

[ESG]

This isn't true. Of course you can. These cards weren't given to us wholly formed by God, and whatever techniques were used to create them once can be used to create them again and any differences dismissed as aging.

Your post history has long indicated a need to continually argue, and I'm not going to engage with you on these boards.

[ESG]

Perhaps coincidentally, there's a similar thread on the mtgfinance subreddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/l4rmis/what_guarantee_is_there_that_fakes_that_pass_all/

It's worth a read and contains many comments that address logistics, practicality, and the physical and technical challenges of forgery.

[FourDogsinaHorseSuit]

Your post history has long indicated a need to continually argue, and I'm not going to engage with you on these boards.
Cool?
But could you edit out the outright falsehoods from your post before you do, thanks.

[Clark Kant]

Perhaps coincidentally, there's a similar thread on the mtgfinance subreddit: https://old.reddit.com/r/mtgfinance/comments/l4rmis/what_guarantee_is_there_that_fakes_that_pass_all/

It's worth a read and contains many comments that address logistics, practicality, and the physical and technical challenges of forgery.

Thanks for linking to my reddit post. celticstill_i_last made an excellent post in that thread explaining the process...

“ You could buy a cheap beat up single color 9810 or 360. It’s just finding ink and stock. There isn’t much of a plate issue anymore with the advancement of paper plates. Metal plates are dead, and so are dark rooms. You could 100000% create identical alphas as long as the ink and paper are correct, down to the pica and point(old school printing terms).

A ab dick 360 or 9810 aren’t the price of a Honda, easy to maintain, and fun to use. It’s finding the exact ink and card stock.

As for the pattern. I think that could be the easiest part. We are talking about single color, overlapping printing. Each plate, for each color. You change the plate, clean the rollers, add new plate, add new ink. Paper plates are so cheap and easy to use, getting the pattern down would take some time yes, but once you have it done, it’s just a matter of cleaning rollers and swapping plates. 1 color press, 3 man job. One to watch the feed, one to watch the tray, one to handle cleaning and design and replicate image to plate. We are talking about 30 year old applications with modern techniques. It’s very plausible that within a month of trail and error you could easily manufacture thousands of 1 card. It’s all on card and ink. That will always be the hardest to match. Which is why it’s hasn’t been accomplished perfectly.

Edit: to put it bluntly. If I had the perfect matched ink and card stock, a single color press, and the plate maker/printer, within two months of running solo I could have many unl lotuses in the world. It’s not hard to age card stock after printing. Place hundreds of sheets on the floor and drive over them with a forklift and do some sick spins, lmfao. Seriously tho, time, money, and the right tools and it’s not challenging”

[sdematt]

You can't replicate the smell, though. Not going to lie, back when I was doing a lot of business in Beta Power/Duals, etc., I would use my loupe, weigh it, feel it in my fingers, and then give it a good sniff.

-Matt

[Ace/Homebrew]

There isn’t much of a plate issue anymore with the advancement of paper plates.
Wait a second... You're telling me my duals are worthless because advances in paper plates?? That's it, I'm suing Dixie!

[non-inflammable]

A ab dick 360 or 9810 aren’t the price of a Honda, easy to maintain, and fun to use. It’s finding the exact ink and card stock.

As for the pattern. I think that could be the easiest part. We are talking about single color, overlapping printing. Each plate, for each color. You change the plate, clean the rollers, add new plate, add new ink. Paper plates are so cheap and easy to use, getting the pattern down would take some time yes, but once you have it done, it’s just a matter of cleaning rollers and swapping plates. 1 color press, 3 man job. One to watch the feed, one to watch the tray, one to handle cleaning and design and replicate image to plate. We are talking about 30 year old applications with modern techniques. It’s very plausible that within a month of trail and error you could easily manufacture thousands of 1 card. It’s all on card and ink. That will always be the hardest to match. Which is why it’s hasn’t been accomplished perfectly.

1000% this. when I was a commercial graphic artist, I ran an abdick 9810 solo for small print runs. some were CMYK, too.
after getting all of the above perfect, you'd also want the correct die to cut down all those unlim lotus...

it can be done but I like this reply below:


You can't replicate the smell, though. Not going to lie, back when I was doing a lot of business in Beta Power/Duals, etc., I would use my loupe, weigh it, feel it in my fingers, and then give it a good sniff.

[PirateKing]

Can't beat that late nineties mouthfeel. Takes me back...

[Zoid]

Maybe I just don't get it, but what is the goal of this thread exactly?

Is it about fakes already out there, printing techniques, or what?

As for the printing process, you could probably replicate everything if you put enough effort to it.
That could probably fool most non-invasive/destructive tests.
The smell comment, as weird as it may be, gives a hint on something you can probably not fake as easily: aging.
If you put real effort and nerd power to it you could probably find differences due to chemical decomposition.
The smell might be a bit to high in variance, but somewhere in the spectrum there should be something you can trace chromatographically.


As for fakes existing, at this point who cares anymore?
If you're buying reserved list cards in this age you're just asking to be scammed.
Either you get fakes or you will never be able to sell them because the prices are absurd.

If Legacy survives as paper format past this pandemic, everyone should be thankful for every player, regardless if they use fakes or not.
Wotc doesn't give a shit about the format, so who cares?

[Mr. Safety]

The big mistake WOTC made was making a value statement (Reserved List) about collecting while the cards in question were still being widely used for tournament play. Collector demand, I would presume, is much lower than player demand. So the obvious opportunity for taking advantage of that demand is making fakes to support the player base. If it's just a collectable then they can be scrutinized appropriately by buyers/sellers and fakes are fairly well squashed, especially with the grading services that have popped up for collectables. On the other hand, if there are so many in circulation/demand for actual use, with an 'unregulated' secondary market, the chance for fakes is increased. Until Legacy/Vintage/Commander are no longer played, the Reserved List creates an huge opportunity/risk for fakes. It's the whole 'make something illegal you create a black market' principle, in this case it isn't illegal, but the cards can't be reprinted.

[FourDogsinaHorseSuit]

The big mistake WOTC made was making a value statement (Reserved List) about collecting while the cards in question were still being widely used for tournament play. Collector demand, I would presume, is much lower than player demand. So the obvious opportunity for taking advantage of that demand is making fakes to support the player base. If it's just a collectable then they can be scrutinized appropriately by buyers/sellers and fakes are fairly well squashed, especially with the grading services that have popped up for collectables. On the other hand, if there are so many in circulation/demand for actual use, with an 'unregulated' secondary market, the chance for fakes is increased. Until Legacy/Vintage/Commander are no longer played, the Reserved List creates an huge opportunity/risk for fakes. It's the whole 'make something illegal you create a black market' principle, in this case it isn't illegal, but the cards can't be reprinted.

I think this depends on how you measure demand. Sure I don't think there's as many collectors as players, but collectors are willing to fork over more money for game pieces than players.

[Mr. Safety]

I think this depends on how you measure demand. Sure I don't think there's as many collectors as players, but collectors are willing to fork over more money for game pieces than players.

Sure, they are willing to pay more, but they are also *likely* willing to pay to get them graded and authorized before they purchase. That regulates the collector's market effectively. The players however are looking for usable pieces, not collector's pieces that live in a plastic case. That's where the lower scrutiny level creates a window for forgeries. I don't think, and I'm willing to be corrected here, that collectors aren't getting punished by the black market to anywhere near the extent as active players.

[Zoid]

Sure, they are willing to pay more, but they are also *likely* willing to pay to get them graded and authorized before they purchase. That regulates the collector's market effectively. The players however are looking for usable pieces, not collector's pieces that live in a plastic case. That's where the lower scrutiny level creates a window for forgeries. I don't think, and I'm willing to be corrected here, that collectors aren't getting punished by the black market to anywhere near the extent as active players.

What has to collector to lose?

The player can get a game loss or a DQ if spotted.
The collector at most gets a hit to the ego and -money which he should have enough to begin with to buy something so expensive to not do anything with it.

A significant portion of the reserved list is random garbage that nobody would remotely care about anyway.
The argument is just for show.
At this point though they can't back out anymore.

Actually, pricing people out of older formats is good for WotC since they want to sell the new stuff.
This is a big maybe but maybe they are actively printing stuff to make formats so bad that people leave to newer ones.

[Maximus]

Even if my opponent has a fake card... why would I care? It doesn't change the actual game state at all. I bet there is some healthy percentage of players that already use proxies and have been for years and no one checks at all. Which IMO is just a good idea. Why should each average player plunk down 2 grand cash because WOTC made a bad business decision years ago?

If I was mid-match and my opponent got DQ'd over a proxy, I would be mad that I didn't get to beat them legitimately.

[Ronald Deuce]

There is no guarantee.

Fakes that are indistinguishable from the real thing are, for all intents and purposes, the real thing. I don't know why people won't internalize this.

[TsumiBand]

Even if my opponent has a fake card... why would I care? It doesn't change the actual game state at all. I bet there is some healthy percentage of players that already use proxies and have been for years and no one checks at all. Which IMO is just a good idea. Why should each average player plunk down 2 grand cash because WOTC made a bad business decision years ago?

If I was mid-match and my opponent got DQ'd over a proxy, I would be mad that I didn't get to beat them legitimately.

This is the Way.

They wanted Standard to be the cash cow; so it is. If Standard be for whales, let Eternal be for freemium players that are willing and/or only able to roll out with proxies, in any form. I don't care if it's a krangled Island that has "Underground Sea" Sharpied onto it, or a printout from mtgprint (side note, someone please kick the bozos that bought MTG Press, they borked the shit out of it), or some slick-as-shit Faux Beta that only the most dedicated card connoisseur would be able to spot, because the actual gameplay is not altered in the fucking slightest by any of these factors. Especially since access to Gatherer is essentially ubiquitous and arguably already a requisite for any game of Magic where questions arise about wording or rulings, there's just no difference between someone using an expanded deck of playing cards with a matrix and someone playing a full 75 of real cards from Revised to the latest in Standard. It just doesn't matter to me.

[jmlima]

You have no idea what you're talking about. There is no "perfect" fake, and this is an irrational fear. These are physical cards that were printed decades ago. You can't print cards today and have them be indistinguishable from cards printed in 1993. Everything is different.

As the art world well knows, yes, you can. These days you can fake anything and make it virtually undistinguishable of the real thing, in fact, for modern* processes like these cards, you can make as real as the real thing. What you may argue is that the cost do this would largely surpass what you could make selling these fakes, and in there you would be absolutely right.

* modern when compared to a 17th century painting, or a 13th century manuscript.

[ESG]

As the art world well knows, yes, you can. These days you can fake anything and make it virtually undistinguishable of the real thing, in fact, for modern* processes like these cards, you can make as real as the real thing. What you may argue is that the cost do this would largely surpass what you could make selling these fakes, and in there you would be absolutely right.

* modern when compared to a 17th century painting, or a 13th century manuscript.

OK, "as real as the real thing" and the real thing aren't really the same, but if we can put that aside, then what we have is a fundamental problem with scaling. The technical challenges and the cooperation involved are so significant that they defeat the profitability of the operation to produce "perfect" fakes. Thus, there are very good fakes in circulation, but not ones incapable of being detected.

[jmlima]

...Thus, there are very good fakes in circulation, but not ones incapable of being detected.

I would never be as adamant as that in what concerns counterfeiting. Even highly paid specialists can be fooled, much quicker your sunday judge with his ebay bought infallible loupe:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90170415/so-many-museums-are-filled-with-fake-paintings

Ultimately, if someone has the resources and is willing, then it can be done, it nobody can be arsed or has the resources, then it cannot be done. The main problem with MtG cards is that a) it's not a one-off piece that can reap a massive RoI (ex, a painting) b) It's not something you can sell or disperse a lot of it without an immediate crash of confidence and price (ex, currency).

TL;DR: Technically perfectly possible, economically, not viable unless you suddenly find the entire setup to do it on an abandoned warehouse (which is an interesting example, since bankrupt companies sometimes sell on the market the most remarkable machinery and supplies for peanuts)

[FourDogsinaHorseSuit]

I would never be as adamant as that in what concerns counterfeiting. Even highly paid specialists can be fooled, much quicker your sunday judge with his ebay bought infallible loupe:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90170415/so-many-museums-are-filled-with-fake-paintings

Ultimately, if someone has the resources and is willing, then it can be done, it nobody can be arsed or has the resources, then it cannot be done. The main problem with MtG cards is that a) it's not a one-off piece that can reap a massive RoI (ex, a painting) b) It's not something you can sell or disperse a lot of it without an immediate crash of confidence and price (ex, currency).

TL;DR: Technically perfectly possible, economically, not viable unless you suddenly find the entire setup to do it on an abandoned warehouse (which is an interesting example, since bankrupt companies sometimes sell on the market the most remarkable machinery and supplies for peanuts)

The analysis that goes into judging the authenticity of a magic card doesn't require all this though.
The goal is to pass as a real card to be sold once. Not to create a replica that is effectively an expansion of the supply.

[HdH_Cthulhu]

But why go throu all this trouble? Why not just counterfeit money?

[phonics]

Why try to counterfeit rl cards when there are plenty of modern cards that are much more liquid and much less scrutinized? Hell, WOTC QC and the 5 variants they make of every card now makes it difficult to tell what is real anymore. There are a ton of expensive modern cards printed before the hologram was a thing too (if that was an issue). At the end of the day you are probably selling 1000 cards for 2$ a pop, that maybe a handful will be laundered and actually get identified, faster than trying to sell a single 1000$+ card that will definitely get scrutinized way more.

[FourDogsinaHorseSuit]

But why go throu all this trouble? Why not just counterfeit money?

Because they have that die and ink to check fake Benjamin's.
To fake an underground sea u need to convince one guy who read a guide online and doesn't know what damage can and can't be done by "leaving it in a box in the attic"

[jmlima]

But why go throu all this trouble? Why not just counterfeit money?

Because it's bloody harder to do. (also subject to much harsher legal penalties if caught)

[HdH_Cthulhu]

Because they have that die and ink to check fake Benjamin's.
To fake an underground sea u need to convince one guy who read a guide online and doesn't know what damage can and can't be done by "leaving it in a box in the attic"

Maybe if you fake just 1 underground sea yeah sure. But is that even worth it? Getting all that equipment and everything for just 1 card? You probably have go with 20 cards but at this point someone will notice.

I mean you can probably sell 1 fake underground sea every other month or something without being cought... still super risky

[FourDogsinaHorseSuit]

Maybe if you fake just 1 underground sea yeah sure. But is that even worth it? Getting all that equipment and everything for just 1 card? You probably have go with 20 cards but at this point someone will notice.

I mean you can probably sell 1 fake underground sea every other month or something without being cought... still super risky

Underground seas are over 600 at heavy play.

[Humphrey]

i assume its easier to fakeprint moxen than actual bank notes and that has been done.

now the question is, is it worth it. i kinda doubt the market is big enough to liquidate fakes without crashing it or make ppl suspicious.

long story short, its silly to pay outrageos prices for cards if you want to play with them. get proxies directly.

as for collectors, they can develop tools to uncover fakes.

at what point is a fake an original anyway?

[TsumiBand]

You'd think there would be some non-minority group of people in the Venn diagram intersection of "player" and "collector" who would strongly argue for proxies as a means to play the game without damaging their, uh, InVeStMeNtS.

Personally I don't think I'll ever fuck with a playgroup that isn't okay with proxy cards. I'm never spending thousands of dollars on land cards lol. In my area nobody in EDH seems to care and nobody around here gives a shit about Vintage or Legacy, which used to really bother me but I can't care about that anymore.

[chunderbucket]

lol imagine caring about old pieces of cardboard you can't ever play with

[allison_kaas]

I've been playing with undetectable fakes at tournies since 95, it's really not that hard (I have one of the original printers that wizards used back in the day, "fell off a truck")

[Ronald Deuce]

I've been playing with undetectable fakes at tournies since 95, it's really not that hard (I have one of the original printers that wizards used back in the day, "fell off a truck")

JESUS HOLCONIUS CHRIST! It's like it's the original thing, or something!

[phonics]

JESUS HOLCONIUS CHRIST! It's like it's the original thing, or something!

Having the correct ink and technique is also needed, there were 'fakes' made back in the day by a Cartamundi employee using the same equipment, but he couldn't get the ink settings correct so they look different, they are called 'dark beta' cards.

[drmarkb]

There are plenty of proxy events about, which is great.
What is not great is selling fakes for 1000s on Ebay to customers who don't know any better. Ultimately that is what happens, unless someone write proxy on the cards or unless you never trade them.
Otherwise you become part of a chain of fraud, someone likely gets scammed because you traded your proxy for 5 bucks worth of stuff.

Loads of people seem to think they have the right to play Legacy and Vintage at wotc events and not have to pay thousands, and that is wrong- you have the right to play the format, of course. Enter or run a proxy event, they are super fun and you are happy. You can play online too. But if you are saying you want to play in whatever wotc events but don't want to pay for the cards, I don't get it. What wotc events are we talking for Legacy and Vintage? In your local LGS? Run a proxy event unsanctioned. A gp the other side of the world? You can afford the ticket, accommodation and travel, buy the bloody cards.

You want to sleeve up a five dollar lotus at an official wotc event, don't complain when you get DQd- you know the rules.

As for real proxies, if they are that good then someone is getting rich, but you are looking for evidence in cards, and that is obviously unobtainable. What you can see in cards is proxies that are proxies upon inspection.
I have caught proxies in sleeves before, when friends had them and let me look through their deck. The event judge was unsure, they turned out to be small time fakes of small time cards, but the judge could not confirm, as they were unable to test. I have caught them in trade binders too, but there are plenty where you need the loupe etc. Most are not obvious to the naked eye in a sleeve.

[chunderbucket]

How is this debate relevant anymore in the present year? Both formats are dying, travel and big events are all but impossible and people still care whether someone paid thousands of dollars for their genuine™ Wizards-approved piece of cardboard? This sounds very quaint, almost as if a discussion was still embroiled in the 90s moral panic of whether Magic was a satanic game.

[PirateKing]

Some people can't sleep at night without constant validation that they're a big boy investor who next leveled everybody into getting in good on the ground floor of a sure bet, and not that they spend many thousands of dollars on a children's card game.
Spending money on this stuff at this point is incredibly foolish, so you just gotta be the fool and be okay with that.
Otherwise you just end up rolling around sobbing "but mah investment!" while the rest of us just play the game.

[Kage]

Covid notwithstanding legacy is about to be as dead IRL as vintage. Duals and RL underwent a gigantic spike, we are at a point where 2 duals are more expensive than the rest of the 58 cards in your deck. Either the RL will be dissolved eventually with all the bullshit that goes with it or all tournament formats with RL card will die a slow, but inevitable death.

[allison_kaas]

Some people can't sleep at night without constant validation that they're a big boy investor who next leveled everybody into getting in good on the ground floor of a sure bet, and not that they spend many thousands of dollars on a children's card game.
Spending money on this stuff at this point is incredibly foolish, so you just gotta be the fool and be okay with that.
Otherwise you just end up rolling around sobbing "but mah investment!" while the rest of us just play the game.

For real, just sell the fakes and laugh

[echoes]

Little off topic, but:

F for Fake (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIVgUjj6RxU)

[chunderbucket]

For real, just sell the fakes and laugh

I'm kinda surprised you can still find buyers tbh