Legacy Showcase 2021 09 19

[Reeplcheep]

There was a lot of discussion on Twitter about the most recent showcase, as URx did really well. Suprise suprise, busted mh2 cards plus daze is a good deck. But we also had a showcase qualifier recently where URx did quite poorly.

lists (https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/legacy-showcase-challenge-2021-09-20)

Top 16

URW Monkey
UR Monkey with Delver
BR grisseldaddy
UR Monkey with saga
UR monkey with saga
UR monkey with Delver
URB monkey
Elves
UR monkey with Delver
Yorion D&T
URW monkey
GW Depths
BR Grisseldaddy
URW monkey
Curses
Bomberman


Thoughts?

[drmarkb]

There was a lot of discussion on Twitter about the most recent showcase, as URx did really well. Suprise suprise, busted mh2 cards plus daze is a good deck. But we also had a showcase qualifier recently where URx did quite poorly.

lists (https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/legacy-showcase-challenge-2021-09-20)

Top 16

URW Monkey
UR Monkey with Delver
BR grisseldaddy
UR Monkey with saga
UR monkey with saga
UR monkey with Delver
URB monkey
Elves
UR monkey with Delver
Yorion D&T
URW monkey
GW Depths
BR Grisseldaddy
URW monkey
Curses
Bomberman


Thoughts?

Can I ask what is the context here, in terms of "quite poorly"?
I suspect prevalence at this point is going to be more of a factor than win pc in the end- too much chatter about a ban, it will become self-fulfilling.

[Reeplcheep]

Can I ask what is the context here, in terms of "quite poorly"?
I suspect prevalence at this point is going to be more of a factor than win pc in the end- too much chatter about a ban, it will become self-fulfilling.

https://old.reddit.com/r/MTGLegacy/comments/p9mn1y/legacy_showcase_qualifier_822_metagame_analysis/

Last month the showcase qualifier (highest level legacy event online, only top8s of recent challenges are allowed entry) had 30% meta share but <40% win rate. Most “unplayably bad” decks like burn or pox usually don’t go below 45 % winrates at large sample sizes. This event did have a small meta so people could focus hard on beating delver.

[drmarkb]

https://old.reddit.com/r/MTGLegacy/comments/p9mn1y/legacy_showcase_qualifier_822_metagame_analysis/

Last month the showcase qualifier (highest level legacy event online, only top8s of recent challenges are allowed entry) had 30% meta share but <40% win rate. Most “unplayably bad” decks like burn or pox usually don’t go below 45 % winrates at large sample sizes. This event did have a small meta so people could focus hard on beating delver.

That is poor, wow, I think people must have gunned for it. The trick is, in an open meta, can people afford to gun for it and remain competitive?
You would think that with so many Delver decks the win pc would tend towards 50 due to the mirrors. To get to that level is surprising indeed.

[Reeplcheep]

The trick is, in an open meta, can people afford to gun for it and remain competitive?

Probably no, considering how well it does in more open fields like normal challenges. But I think that shows the deck is tier 1 not tier 0 if it can be successfully hated out.