Enough Dual Lands? [Archive]

DeathwingZERO

12-03-2007, 03:03 AM

There is in no way shape or form 3 million ACCESSIBLE dual lands in circulation. It's like saying that there's 50,000 pieces of each Power. Just because there was an initial print run doesn't mean the cards still exist, or that all the print runs were even opened or circulated.

If you want to count out Alpha, Beta, and FBBs, good luck reaching people trying to get in (or stay in, for that matter) Legacy when they get to shell out $200-400 PER DECKSET of lands that are almost always a must-have. Ya, try telling that to the 4c Landstill players come 2008.

Revised was a rather large print run, only in comparison to the first 3 "core" sets. In truth, it's nowhere near the print run of 4th edition and beyond, as far as core sets go, because they were finalized to be released on a 2 year basis, unlike the previous sets. It may have been the first "real" release, but that doesn't make it look anymore impressive than the sets following it as far as printing is concerned, especially considering that it's now 13 years old.

On top of that, we only have dual lands in 4 languages (English, German, French, Italian). That's it. This means that we've got a worldwide problem creeping up in this little Magic community (another Extended rotation), and we'll have players desperately wanting to get in, WITHOUT having the resources on hand like they did in 2002, when a lot of Legacy and Vintage supporters were primarily US based.

You also have to take in consideration of the fact that Legacy shares its staples with Vintage, but not necessarily it's player base. I know plenty of guys that just want Broken.dec, and will never take a step into a Legacy tournament with their duals. This cuts into yet again another piece of the pie.

In essence, the duals will still be circulated, yes. But in another 4 years, when Extended rotates again (barring Wizards doing some drastic measures like releasing limited-editions of the Eternal staples, or a complete crash in the market), I guarantee you that the duals will be the "mini-power" they are creeping up to be, in terms of price and availability. And now with ebay scammers popping up in dual land collections and lots, we're going to have even more fun with fanatics trying to horde the real thing.

Kronicler

12-03-2007, 03:04 AM

The problem is that while I don't think there are enough duals, I don't want wizards to reprint them either because it would make them worth less and screw those of us who have like 8932847384 of them. THey would also fuck up standard, extended, and block so bad it wouldn't even be funny because they are just so much more powerful than any other dual land (duh).

Kronicler

Machinus

12-03-2007, 03:08 AM

There are never going to be 75,000 people that even want to play this format.

Availability isn't the problem. It sounds like people just don't like having to buy cards.

DeathwingZERO

12-03-2007, 03:17 AM

It really isn't a matter of people wanting to buy cards. It's a matter of the Eternal formats becoming increasingly hard to get into, because staples are being picked up at drastic measures (an online vendor I know having over 200 FoW's in his collection at one point, for example), and the fact that they aren't at every store, or even any store, in some cities.

If I wanted to build an Extended or Standard deck right now from scratch, chances are I can hit 1 or 2 shops in my area, or go online and find one vendor, two at most, and plop down the cash. If I want to do that with Legacy, chances are I'm going to need to go to multiple places, and even more so if I'm looking for NM stuff, because I'm anal about my cards. That alone irritates future "investors" in this format's growth. And don't call Ebay one store. When trying to build a deck a few years back I ordered from SIX different people. That's really not convenient in any way.

And while Wizards is still up in the air about their Do Not Reprint policy/selection, they've already stated that the Dual Lands won't ever come back, for the reasons listed here. They will IMMEDIATELY get banned in Extended, Standard, and Block, because they are unfair in our more stable environments, because they make Basic Lands look like garbage. Not to mention, there's no reason for them to replace the painlands, or in another core set, the shocklands if they choose to do them instead. They work great for those environments, and have balancing aspects.

Versus

12-03-2007, 08:33 AM

I can speak from my own experience in that my deck building for this format is limited simply from not owning many duals. I have some, but they are not full playsets and the ones I have the most of (Volcanic Islands/Savanahs) aren't the most widely used. In addition, I have zero Fetches. So other than Sui, D&T, or one of the Stompies, I'm pretty much dead in the water.

However, I could get them at any time had I the budget. If I were rich and silly I could probably build a T1 Legacy deck at Neutral Ground on the spot. I happen to be neither.

DeathwingZERO

12-03-2007, 09:26 AM

A lot of you seem to be using the defense that you could build a deck on the spot, regardless of the duals it needs.

That's fine. But that's not the case here. What we're discussing is the fact that when another Extended rotation happens, our resources go down, again. There's no more printings. There won't be, ever.

It is nearly impossible for Wizards to fully support a PTQ run of Legacy in the same way that they can do it for the new cards, which EVERY shop should have on hand. It's really not the case with duals, especially when seeing a huge decrease in people selling them as opposed to when they originally left Extended.

Anything in limited supply will become more rare over time and with mass use, that's an obvious case in any marketing scenario. What's going to change that is if the demand is less than the supply (which it currently is now, but even that is slowly becoming arguable mostly due to prices), or if the supply gets a boost. We'll definitely not see the latter, and we're all hoping (for our wallet's sakes) that the previous doesn't happen either.

goobafish

12-03-2007, 09:34 AM

Duals are pretty cheap online, and they are VERY widely available. They are annoying to pick up locally, but are everywhere online. Anyone with access to 70 dollars and a computer or 110 dollars and a computer can get their own set of non-blues/blues, and it will not take more than a couple of hours or a day to track them down.

Edit:
A quick ebay search will show you how readily available they are:
http://search.ebay.com/volcanic-island_W0QQfrppZ50QQfsopZ1QQmaxrecordsreturnedZ300

A playset of volcs just started with a buy it now of 100 dollars.

Shtriga

12-03-2007, 09:51 AM

taking into consideration that the # of duals around the world isn't going up, but down (lost cards, destroyed cards, damaged cards, etc), that some people won't get rid of their collections, and the community of legacy is more prone to go up in the next years than down, there will eventually be a problem since the demand will go up and supply will go down

this problem isn't now, but say, in 5 years from now or so, and I'm pretty sure nothing as good as duals + fetches will come up to replace them. and for me and certainly many other people, I wouldn't call these lands "cheap" (paying 20-30 dollars for a piece of cardboard when in a country where the minimum wage goes for ~450 dollars). its not accessible to everyone and I do recognize its a rather expensive hobby

In my country it's virtually impossible to find any duals in circulation, leaving us the only option of the internet stores

there's always ravnica duals (lol) in a pinch, but they're a joke when compared to the revised ones.

Machinus

12-03-2007, 10:50 AM

APriestOfGix

12-03-2007, 11:00 AM

I think that Wizards tried to make functunal reprints, (the Ravnica Duals) However, they will always be sub-par.

I saw a guy playing SI, with overgrown Tombs. The reason? He had the cash, just could not find anyone with the cards. (I sold him my Bayou for 30 he wanted it that bad) The price isn't that huge an issue yet. Some people say ther are already to high, i say, stop bitching and look at Vintage and tell me they are too much.

The problem is even if you have the cash, it's hard to find cards for a good price. E-bay is about the ONLY place where you can buy staples and not get ripped off. (SCG wants 25-30 per FoW) I also don't want to see duals go up to 100 each when everyone and their mother needs them for a PTQ.

If you think about it right now, many people dosn't own duals already, and they play the format a lot. I only own 1 Taiga now, and have tried to avoid duals since i just can't find them. I'm willing to shell the cash, but i don't feel like getting ripped off by SCG's and e-bay hunting is something i should look into but haven't.

Wizards needs to make a Vintage/Legacy staple reprint list. When they do it though they need to make them less disirable than what we currently have, kinda like how revised are worth less than beta, make the new ones white boarderd, and have a ugly expansion symbol.

Also make them never legal for Standard or Extended play, else the world would end.

Of course that would STILL hit the prices of the current duals. But i think it would be worth it if it would allow wizards to have a PT, and get more people into the format, as the prices would jump right back up.

(Of course sine i own no duals, i wouln't mind the price change, someone with duals say what you think of this...)

Wallace

12-03-2007, 11:11 AM

The card supply is going to stay way higher than we need for a very long time. The circulation arguments are just incorrect.

If you don't like paying $25 for a piece of cardboard, or you don't like using the internet, then Magic might not be the right hobby for you.

Ya beat me to it!! Stop bitching about the price/availability of cards, if you can't afford duals or can't find them, DON'T PLAY a deck that need 8-12 duals! I Have 4 legacy decks (Belcher, Goyf Sligh, Dead Guy, and Skies) I play these deck because they don't require many/any duals. Goyf Sligh uses 4 taiga's, Belcher use's 1 Taiga and dead guy use's 4 Scrubland's, thats it. Play a deck that doesn't require you to get Duals, then over time win the one's you need. I mean I know I am blessed with living in Syracuse and I can barrow most of the dual's I need, but still, if you can't afford a deck, don't play it.

As far as Magic not being able to support a Legacy Pro Tour, we did have almost 900 in Ohio for a GP. The number would have been much higher if the whole Flash thing wasn't happining.

thefreakaccident

12-03-2007, 11:24 AM

As someone who likes to have larger tournies it would be refreshing for the format (in my perspective) to get a new grip of players and possibly another much larger event... GP was pretty huge for Legacy and I think that it would remain the same size nevertheless...

I don't know what they will do, but I think that wizards probably already have this figured out (hey have how many people thinking of ways to keep the game afloat?)...

Whit3 Ghost

12-03-2007, 11:30 AM

I think we're fine as it is, but I'd like to see an "Eternal Set" in order to create buzz and to make things more readily acessible, especially if Legacy PTQs are in the works.

goobafish

12-03-2007, 11:33 AM

I think we're fine as it is, but I'd like to see an "Eternal Set" in order to create buzz and to make things more readily acessible, especially if Legacy PTQs are in the works.

I doubt that they will do this because it causes collectors to loose confidence in the value of their cards (collectors and dealers are a big part of the market) the secondary market drives the sale of product.

Lukas Preuss

12-03-2007, 11:51 AM

Duals are pretty cheap online, and they are VERY widely available. They are annoying to pick up locally, but are everywhere online. Anyone with access to 70 dollars and a computer or 110 dollars and a computer can get their own set of non-blues/blues, and it will not take more than a couple of hours or a day to track them down.

Exactly my thinking. I really can't understand how people complain about card accessability (not price) on an internet forum!

Bardo

12-03-2007, 11:57 AM

That's fine. But that's not the case here. What we're discussing is the fact that when another Extended rotation happens, our resources go down, again. There's no more printings. There won't be, ever.

Thank you for restating my point. The problem isn't that there isn't enough supply now. Duals are expensive, but they can be had. Demand is also relatively low--it's mainly other Eternal players, collectors and casual players with a finer taste in multi-colored lands.

The problem will become if Wizards were to have a Legacy Pro Tour, not a one-time Grand Prix. I'm neither an economist nor mathematician, I'm just going on the hunch that a 1000x fold increase in the demand of Tropical Islands, etc. will make the costs explode--like $90 Tundras (Revised, SP).

That's my fear. Can someone shoot this down?

Ya beat me to it!! Stop bitching about the price/availability of cards, if you can't afford duals or can't find them, DON'T PLAY a deck that need 8-12 duals!

You're missing my point.

goobafish

12-03-2007, 12:04 PM

I think you are forgetting the fact that Pro Tour players often have resources to get the cards they need. Do you think pros own all the cards they play with? Not always. They are capable of borrowing from collectors or other players who are not playing in the given pro tour.

Even with the fact that people can borrow cards we can look at the economic aspect of it. Once the price level reaches a certain amount the collecors and stores will start offloading their stock. People stockpile cards, but at a certain price they are willing to let it go. Just because the demand increases by a certain factor, price will not increase by the same factor because of the supply of these duals. As soon as they hit 40 or 50, collectors will decide that the opportunity cost of holding the duals is too high and as such, they will sell. The original demand shock will causes dual prices to raise high, but then they will meet at an equilibrium when people start to liquidate duals.

APriestOfGix

12-03-2007, 12:40 PM

All the people on the east coast are good for duals.

The problem on the West coast, is their is little Legacy support, so there are few shops that EVER have the cards. It's possiably to buy online, but the problem with that is you never get new players.

To add people to the format, cards need to be at the local shop, you hand them a list, they look at the cards in the case, and next week you have a new player.

Yes, the internet is good if you have your deck tested, and know exactly what you want, but to add a newer player to the community, you need them at the store, something the low print run can't allow, as dealers and players currently have the bulk of the staples.

Also Bardo is 100% correct. As extended rotates out, some players will follow. Say only 1% of the current Extended players ever come to Legacy (it was like 5% last rotation i believe from looking at the number of people that said they used to play extended and moved when the format changed). (OK OK, i pulled the numbers out of my ass, SUE ME!)

The point is, some players will come. As time goes on, more players join than leave. We can see this by the growth of the format, and the increasing attendance to the GP's (300ish? -> 300ish? -> 900ish!)

As time goes on, more demand for staples drives up the price. It's like goyf but over a longer period of time. Amazing in standard. Then Legacy and Extended found it, and were like, we want, and the price went up to $$, then Vintage found, and the card is now $$$$.

As more players enter our format (good for us, as Wizards wants to support us more), the demand increases, and prices go up (bad for us, and stops newer players from joining).

Thus as of right now, there is a limit on the number of players Legacy can support. There is with every format. However because of the lower print run of staples (duals, FoW, etc.) the limit is low enough we might actually hit it (or maybe have?). There will be a point when the demand for card raises the price to a point, where only so many people will bother, and at that point the format becomes dead. Now growth, and people retiring from magic, only to be filled by a void.

We can't let Legacy ever hit that point, as the format will come to a hault, nothing distructive, but the format will become stale, and be like the days of Goblins. No innovation.

Bane of the Living

12-03-2007, 12:51 PM

We need another set like Anthologies. They need to do a reprint set that puts alot of the better hardto get cards back in our hands. I would love to play Aluren but I cant for the life of me get Imperial Recruiters. One of my all time favorite decks has been Geddon Stax but I just cant get my hands on Moat of Ravages of War.

I see this problem in dual lands basically because of their price tag. A reprint eternal set would be a good thing Id think. Rather than value dropping on old school duals they would stay strong since an even larger legacy community would want the older duals more.

R&D wouldnt have to develop a set just decide what to reprint and make additional sales off something they barely need to put energy into.

A modern Anthologies is exactly what Eternal magic needs to expand its player base.

mikekelley

12-03-2007, 12:56 PM

Even if they did a modern Anthologies, you can rest assured that they'll fuck it up. See: Online Masters Edition.

It will be filled with jank.

APriestOfGix

12-03-2007, 12:58 PM

unless WE talk to Wizards, and WE give them a suggestions list.

Like for sure...

FoW
Duals
Moat
Grim Tutor
Portal Playables (or just EVERYTHING)

mikekelley

12-03-2007, 01:00 PM

Let's keep it real though. They would never make "The Source.Expansion"

Shtriga

12-03-2007, 01:06 PM

APriestOfGix and Bardo expressed their feelings better than I have

APriestOfGix

12-03-2007, 01:06 PM

Sadly true. But if we got players involved in the process, like polls on MTG.com etc. maybe we could get more than the 1 good card Masters had (FoW)

Shtriga

12-03-2007, 02:56 PM

The card supply is going to stay way higher than we need for a very long time. The circulation arguments are just incorrect.

If you don't like paying $25 for a piece of cardboard, or you don't like using the internet, then Magic might not be the right hobby for you.

I don't really mind the internet. I have a Rockguy and Red death, but only own 2 badlands 2 bayous and 2 scrublands, all of which were ordered from the internet at 20 euros a piece from a national website (which converts to 29 dollars :cry: and yes I do realize I was ripped off). filled the rest with ravnica duals

what saddens me the most is the lack of a legacy community around here, all the local kids care about is T2 even if 50% are casuals so I don't see the point, and will start bitching the moment you drop a dual

back on topic: if demand ever goes up at some point, and supply stays the same (if anything, it will go down), its inevitable that the prices will rise. remains to see how much, so better finish our playsets now

Machinus

12-03-2007, 03:19 PM

technogeek5000

12-03-2007, 04:35 PM

I own over 25 duals and id have to say that i realy couldnt care less if they reprinted them because even if the price goes down, its not like im going to be selling my cards anytime soon. Also when i build new decks its not like i own a playset of everyone so when i want to pick a up 2-3 cards i dont want to drop 50-70 on 2 cards when i have everything else to buy.

Also i believe this applies to FOW's and fetches(still available, and will become moreso when they rotate out but still, 15+ for a extended legal card thats nopt thoughtsieze/goyf [also ridiculously overpriced, thoughtsieze isnt worth 16 and goyf is no way worthy of being a first place prize for a tournament... their probably gonna have to reprint this one to] is kinda ridiculous)

APriestOfGix

12-03-2007, 08:32 PM

roatting out for some reason dosn't lower price.

I waited 2 years for cursed scrolls to drop, and the FINALLY are lowering...

frogboy

12-03-2007, 08:56 PM

I think it's unrealistic to think that there is ever going to be an influx of new players large enough to have any effect on the market. It's basically a fantasy that is never going to happen to Eternal formats.

you do realize that a PTQ season would lead to 4-6 tournaments per week with anywhere from 60-150 people in them, right? Demand would shift way to the right.

DeathwingZERO

12-03-2007, 09:27 PM

I think it's unrealistic to think that there is ever going to be an influx of new players large enough to have any effect on the market. It's basically a fantasy that is never going to happen to Eternal formats.

I figured this as good as any reason to lay out my bit lengthy reply I was holding back on:

WOW. Really, at this point you sound like the oil companies about 10 years ago. No, a single event will not spark it. But a fully supported PTQ rally over a couple of years time JUST might be more than enough to put the demand well over the top, to the point of either 1) prices become too high, and players stop coming in because they can't afford "the best", or 2) we see supply shrink to the point that duals become inflated.

That's pretty much my reply to that quote, but here's a little something I feel needs to be brought to people's attention that don't like reading my posts for some reason:

WE ARE NEVER GOING TO GET THIS SUPPLY AGAIN, AND DEMAND WILL INCREASINGLY GROW OVER TIME. WELCOME TO "COLLECTIBLE".

(If you don't feel like reading up on Marketing 101 lessons, you can stop here)

In 2002, we saw Legacy and Vintage get a rather large influx of players pretty much worldwide. It probably wasn't even a very large percentage, but it was enough to get the two formats a much larger base than it already had. In light of said influx of players, collectors tend to follow trends. If new items are hot, they get picked up. Power 9 are literally worth their weight in gold in instances now, in some cases, it could be up to 10x that number (I did the research on the price of gold as well, so don't attempt to say I don't know that value :p )

If you put out a limited quantity of something, at some point it will deplete itself as long as people use it. The duals might be recirculating, but over time more get destroyed, become illegal for tournament play, sit in people's attics, and just become unavailable. All the while, Magic's supporters are growing.

They will never reach the potential of Power. Nor will they reach the astronomical price increases taken up by our Power 4, because those had much smaller print runs, and even less worldwide distribution. But eventually the format will become the Gentleman's Magic, much as Vintage has done (in Sanctioned play, mind you). Don't be surprised if in 5 years or so people will be allowing proxies to Unsanctioned Legacy tournaments, just to balance the playing field.

And honestly, stop calling for a reprint set. If they reprint anything of real value from the DNR, the secondary market will take a dive much like our stock market circa the Roaring 20's. If you shake the foundation of the collectors and dealers who've invested thousands into chunks of these low print runs, they will attempt to flood the market all at once, and most people will follow through, thinking the collectible aspect is dead. They've been attempting functional reprints for a while now, and the Ravnica duals are the best we'll get. The only thing I can think of would be Limited Edition releases, like judge promos or the like. Even that is doubtful though, because that's 10 cards needing to see print, because they can't just do one or two and think people will appreciate that.

Oh, and for those who have invested any time in MTGO, Masters Edition wasn't the only print run, it was a market tester. MED:2 is already slated for release, Weatherlight should be out already (or within a few weeks), and Tempest Block is slated to come out early next year, along with a "Limited Edition" run of sets in between they've missed. Eventually everything Ice Age to current will be in pack form on there. It's already causing a huge buzz with the dealers, something like a set every 2 1/2 - 3 months guaranteed will be released yearly.

FoolofaTook

12-03-2007, 09:30 PM

If they make a Legacy Pro Tour people will compete in it.

More importantly a large number of veterans of past Magic eras would participate as their prior investments became playable in a competitive environment.

As to the costs involved they'd be substantial for almost everybody. Newcomers to the Magic scene over the last half decade would have to shell out for duals and a few older staples that are still valuable in play and old vets who have been on the bench since Alliances or earlier would have to shell out for all the over-powered stuff that has been printed in the meantime.

Think about it for a second. How much money does a Standard Pro have to shell out to stay current? Probably not a lot less than the Legacy player who has either the new power cards or the old ones would have to spend to get current.

The thing that knocked most of the old-time Magic players out of the tournament arena was the decline of type 1 and the quick elimination of dual-lands, Arabian Nights, Antiquities and Legends in type 2. 75% of my Magic collection was not playable in type 2 within a year of the format split. There were only small type 1 tourneys available at that point. It was easy to walk away. That was probably true for thousands of people in that same timeframe.

If WoTC setup a reasonable tournament structure for Legacy that offered the opportunity to compete at a high level on a regular basis there'd be a lot of people willing to dust off the cards and play again.

FoolofaTook

12-03-2007, 09:34 PM

Also i believe this applies to FOW's and fetches(still available, and will become moreso when they rotate out but still, 15+ for a extended legal card thats nopt thoughtsieze/goyf [also ridiculously overpriced, thoughtsieze isnt worth 16 and goyf is no way worthy of being a first place prize for a tournament... their probably gonna have to reprint this one to] is kinda ridiculous)

I don't expect them to reprint Goyf. There've already been rumors (possibly unsubstantiated but I've seen them in lots of different forums) that Goyf was an R&D error that was supposed to be GG1 not G1. He makes a lot more sense at the former cost. When you see rumors like that circulating it's often a tacit admission that a big oops occurred.

Bardo

12-03-2007, 09:44 PM

I don't expect them to reprint Goyf. There've already been rumors (possibly unsubstantiated but I've seen them in lots of different forums) that Goyf was an R&D error that was supposed to be GG1 not G1.

This is off-topic, but Mike Turian (now in R&D) said that Goyf was 1GG, but was pushed to 1G late in development after he was put back into Future Sight after the FS Planeswalker was pushed back to Lorwyn.

FoolofaTook

12-03-2007, 10:02 PM

This is off-topic, but Mike Turian (now in R&D) said that Goyf was 1GG, but was pushed to 1G late in development after he was put back into Future Sight after the FS Planeswalker was pushed back to Lorwyn.

How many Goyfs were printed in Future Sight? Just curious, as it will be a Legacy staple forever unless it is banned, which I do not expect.

Machinus

12-03-2007, 11:45 PM

Bardo

12-04-2007, 12:49 AM

How many Goyfs were printed in Future Sight? Just curious, as it will be a Legacy staple forever unless it is banned, which I do not expect.

After Googling for 20 mins, I have no fucking idea. If anyone does, please let us know.

From what I've gathered from early print runs:

Alpha: 2.6M cards
Beta: 7.3M
Unlimited: 35M
Revised: 500M

Arabian Nights: 5M
Antiquities: 15M
Legends: 35M
The Dark: 62M
Fallen Empires: 350M (!!)

After than that? :)

Can anyone even find the print run of Tenth Edition?

etrigan

12-04-2007, 09:31 AM

Crystalkeep has print run estimations for every set up to Urza's Saga (altought Alpha and Beta and lumped together). It's hardly an official source, and I cant vouch for their accuracy.

Bardo

12-04-2007, 12:15 PM

Wizards knows how many duals they printed. Wizards also knows how many people play in their PT formats. Wizards is not going to run a PT season where supply would be a problem.

The demand crisis is never going to happen. Stop fantasizing.

I can't be the only one confused by this comment. Are you saying: 1) there is no supply problem if demand spikes; 2) Hasbro/WotC will reprint duals (in some manner) if the decide to run Legacy PT season; or 3) there is little possibility of a Legacy PT?

Considering with relatively low demand, RV duals cost ~$25-$30 each, I can't even imagine what their cost will be if tens of thousands of people around the world suddenly want them.

Basically, if the foundation of all decks is their manabase, and said foundation is composed of a cycle of rares last printed thirteen years ago, well it doesn't bode well for a Legacy PT, no?

Shtriga

12-04-2007, 01:15 PM

I can't be the only one confused by this comment. Are you saying: 1) there is no supply problem if demand spikes; 2) Hasbro/WotC will reprint duals (in some manner) if the decide to run Legacy PT season; or 3) there is little possibility of a Legacy PT?

Considering with relatively low demand, RV duals cost ~$25-$30 each, I can't even imagine what their cost will be if tens of thousands of people around the world suddenly want them.

Basically, if the foundation of all decks is their manabase, and said foundation is composed of a cycle of rares last printed thirteen years ago, well it doesn't bode well for a Legacy PT, no?

I think he means that a legacy PT circuit won't happen so the demand spike won't happen as well

Versus

12-04-2007, 01:28 PM

Actually, I took it as him saying; if there is one, there won't be a shortage as WotC will do something about the the supply/demand of duals.

I'm sure this point has been brought up a million times, but I never said it so here goes... What if WotC were to print up X amount of dual land sets. Black bordered, new artwork, and tournament legal. Sell the sets for $399.99. That's $10 a pop and more than fair.

As Bardo stated, manabases are the foundation of decks. Duals are the foundation of Legacy decks. If WOTC wants people to take up the format then the very least they could do is supply it's foundation. Fuck the reprint bullshit for this one instance. Any other staples that are more "deck specific" like FoW, Sinkhole, Berserk, ect, you can trot your ass over to ebay like the rest of us.

Wizards makes money, players get to build decks without limitations, and collectors can rest assured their original duals will maintain a good amount of their value. Problem solved.

Land

12-04-2007, 01:59 PM

...
(Of course sine i own no duals, i wouln't mind the price change, someone with duals say what you think of this...)

I currently own 4 beta Bayou, 4 beta Scrubland and 2 beta Underground Sea with proper supporting fetches. Even though I have the money, and the availability, to get more of the dual lands I need, I still would like to see a reprint. I do not agree with availability quotes, at the current time of this posting, to be so low that these lands are unattainable. Spending $30 on a revised Bayou locally is just ignorance or stupidity when you could easily order them online. Magic has and always will be a money game, if you don't like that then maybe you should pick a different hobby.

Setting all that aside though, a new run of many of the Vintage/Legacy staples would help Wizards generate new profits. Faded colors, white border, tapping symbols. All of them could be used to decrease the desire to own the cards for collectible purposes but make them still usable for a tournament. At the current rate, it would be safe to assume that in a few years the format enthusiasm will either die out or more counterfeits will hit the market. Maybe buying a pack of 15 reprints for $10/pack wouldn't be so bad given the alternatives. At least then, everyone would profit.

Bardo

12-04-2007, 02:19 PM

Spending $30 on a revised Bayou locally is just ignorance or stupidity when you could easily order them online.

Just for my own sanity, let me restate the case clearly. This discussion isn't about buying duals from SCG/Blackborder/etc. vs. eBay--being a "savvy shopper" and all that shit. I don't really care if you or I can save $5-$7 on a particular dual depending on how/where you buy it. That's pretty cut and dry.

Simply, if WotC Organized Play and the powers that be decided that Legacy should have a full-blown Pro Tour, with hundreds of qualifiers and conceivably tens of thousands of new players interested in Legacy, the $20-$30 dual is going to double (at least) in price overnight. Without a change in supply, many interested players will be pushed right out of the market.

Case in point: 4c Landstill, which resurrected this debate. Using the MOTL Price Guide, which is as good an indicataor for fair market price as we're likely to find, the manabase runs anywhere from $450 - $500 when you buy from eBay. That's a lot of money. If Legacy were to be a popular competitive format, the manabase would easily exceed $1,000.

I think we can agree that Magic is an expensive hobby. At what point is it just destructive to Legacy (vis-a-vis a PT)?

APriestOfGix

12-04-2007, 02:32 PM

Thank you Bardo.

I'm not say that the price increase is going to drive me, or other players here out of the format (though it may).

A price increase would stop newplayers from trying it out. Thus we get no new players.

And a FEW would leave, making our format smaller.

Nihil Credo

12-04-2007, 02:36 PM

Just to clear that up, there would be a huge difference between a Legacy PTQ season and a Legacy Pro Tour.

Usually, you qualify for a Pro Tour by winning a PTQ in a different format from the one that the PT will be disputed in (it can also be Limited for Constructed PTs and vice versa). That means that if Wizards wants to give Legacy a try as a pro format, it will be one or the other, not both.

A PTQ season, to keep the same attendance as other Constructed PTQs, would require tens of thousands of players to build Legacy decks, and would probably create a huge demand.

A Pro Tour event only requires less than a thousand competitors to buy/borrow Legacy decks. Worlds is comparable to a PT under this point of view, and AFAIK there hasn't been any price increase because of next week's event. Based on that, I can see one Pro Tour a year being disputed in the Legacy format, without that raising too many issues. PTQs, however, are a different matter.

TeenieBopper

12-04-2007, 02:45 PM

The thing is, though, is that the PTQ formats are the same as the previous PT. If there's a Legacy PT, then there will be a Legacy PTQ season.

freakish777

12-04-2007, 03:07 PM

Why do people worry about this?

The Market will inevitably "correct" itself. If Wizards decides to have a Legacy PTQ Season, and players can't afford to get ahold of duals, spikes will still show up and the best players will still do well regardless of whether or not they have duals. There are some decks that are close to or are mono-colored that are competitive. There are other decks that can get by with simply running say 2 duals and the appropriate fethces and basics as replacements (think Goyf Sligh with 2 Taigas and 2 Forest instead of 4 Taigas, so even if the price for Taiga doubles, a player on a budget can still put together a competitive deck that's only slightly sub-optimal).

Keep in mind Extended Players are already paying $25~$30 for their Goyfs, and at one point were paying $20+ for their shocklands.

To be perfectly honest, fetchlands aren't really that far behind duals in terms of power, so a Legacy PTQ wouldn't be the end of the world as far as the market is concerned. For those of you who currently don't have the duals, and you run into players at tournaments with them and think "How unfair! Their cards are so much more powerful just because they have more money!" quit your bitching and go play non-proxy Vintage for a while...

Even if Revised Dual Lands become $80 for non-blue and $100 for blue a piece, I don't think that's really a bad thing for anyone involved. Guess what I'd be doing? Selling my duals at 400% what I bought them for, and playing TES/Belcher/Ichorid/etc until the market returns to reasonable prices.

Wizards is going to do what they think is in their best interest. If they see the duals as unfit to reprint, so be it. If they do reprint them, so be it. Personally, I think Wizards has a better idea of what's good for it's bottom line (in cash money) then I, or any of you, do.

Mr.C

12-04-2007, 03:32 PM

I've been reading through these, and, to the anti-reprint people, i'd like to ask:

- I keep hearing this collectible card game thing. Yep, magic is collectible. A Revised dual will never be an Unlimited dual will never be a Limited dual. There will never be another Alpha. Or a Beta. If there was a reprint, say, an anthologies-like set, would it really destroy the market? Do you realistically think so?

Tarmogoyf is a $30 card. I bet it has a way, way larger print run then Revised. Say you make an anthologies set. White border, new frame, ugly-ass symbol. Sell it in packs. say, a 165 card set of the most powerful cards ever printed, sans power. Duals, seal, Grimmy, Recruiter, Force, heck, cruel bargains and strategic plannings. Sell it for $8 a pack. Make it a limited run. Will it REALLY have that much of an impact? My guess is that the prices would not change. Not for the older duals. The influx of new players would be so high, that it would negate the supposed loss in value. Instead of having $90 duals, you'd have $25 duals. Heck, the Dissension duals hit $18-20.

And it's not like it would devalue BB duals.

The only things I could see taking a hit are Starter / Portal 3 cards. But noone has those anyway.

freakish777

12-04-2007, 03:47 PM

i'd like to ask:

....

Instead of having $90 duals, you'd have $25 duals.

You just answered your own question.

I personally don't care either way, because Wizards makes money by trying to grow it's customer base, which subsequently means more people for me to play against (this is a "good thing").

Some people, however, would love for Wizards to announce a Legacy PTQ season (without a reprint set), and proceed to sell their duals for the aforemention (hypothetical) $90 a piece. I think a good number of casual players that actually keep up with prices would be willing to let their 1x Bayou, that's currently in their casual BGw deck, go for $90 and then go buy a set of Godless Shrines and a set of Overgrown Tombs. Some of these people are our very own Sourcers, and some are dealers.

Essentially Wizards would weigh the demand from players, vs. the expected loss of mad dealers, old-school players, stores sitting on 40+ duals that now have the same price (or potentially lower) as opposed to a 4 times increase they would have expierenced instead.

DeathwingZERO

12-04-2007, 05:06 PM

I've been reading through these, and, to the anti-reprint people, i'd like to ask:

And it's not like it would devalue BB duals.

The only things I could see taking a hit are Starter / Portal 3 cards. But noone has those anyway.

So your saying to make a new set, put the cards out in white border, and expect them to not devalue the black bordered alternatives? I think you should do some market research.

Chronicles KILLED Legends, Antiquities, and Arabian prices for a good long time. The Elder Dragons for example were hitting upwards of $30+ each, then immediately dropped to $15 each, pretty much overnight, thanks to white bordered versions hitting only $5-10 each, and still tournament legal.

In addition, Duals are on the DNR. They will probably never be taken off that list, even when Wizards decides to "revise" it, and take off cards of balanced power levels, so they can fit them into new core sets. This means even IF your print run was limited, it was still PRINTED. That's enough to shake down the market, and it's got two choices:

- Go up in value, because of high demand of now openly accessible printings and possible premiums,
or
- Go down in value, because now dealers and collectors have no faith in Wizard's DNR policy, and they start selling of anything of real value, flooding the markets with the real things, thus making the new printings obsolete.

Now the possible premiums put up an interesting issue on it's own. If you make foils, they will be as sought after as BB counterparts. This causes a ripple effect in the now limited sets. People will start hunting down those foils, putting out insane amounts of money. They WILL hit higher than Betas, because its now an even smaller print run than original BB stuff (take the 7th edition Birds for example, hitting over $150 when Beta's were only $90, and Birds a mere $15 in WB sets on the high end).

Wizards reps have actually gone over this a number of times. Both Forsythe and Rosewater have addressed people with questions just like this, and this is the exact kind of reasoning they have. It's a pretty basic analysis of any style market that has high demand antiques, so to speak. If knock offs are made, regardless of how they look and function, and whether or not legit, they are still a knock off.

EDIT: I'm going to look into some number crunching from the print runs you put up, Bardo. I would say short of either a huge miscalculation or the international printing numbers being large (highly doubting that), we may or may not see that 3,000,000 number suggested by Machinus.

Machinus

12-04-2007, 06:09 PM

I can't be the only one confused by this comment. Are you saying: 1) there is no supply problem if demand spikes; 2) Hasbro/WotC will reprint duals (in some manner) if the decide to run Legacy PT season; or 3) there is little possibility of a Legacy PT?

There won't be reprints, and there won't need to be either, because there is never going to be a supply crisis. There are plenty of duals to support a moderately popular format at the level of official support that WotC is willing to offer.

Considering with relatively low demand, RV duals cost ~$25-$30 each.

You say that like $25 is expensive for a magic card. It's not. People pay that and more for staple cards.

And the demand isn't low for these cards. Every card store and casual magic player in the world knows that dual lands have been valuable for a very long time now. The demand for these cards is already inflated and they are still very common for cards out of print for a decade.

Basically, if the foundation of all decks is their manabase, and said foundation is composed of a cycle of rares last printed thirteen years ago, well it doesn't bode well for a Legacy PT, no?

When has anyone ever actually thought we would get a pro tour?

kirdape3

12-04-2007, 06:20 PM

Actually, it's quite rare for the PTQ season to be the same format as the PT. Most of the time it's Block feeding into Extended or even worse, a Constructed PTQ of some sort feeding into a Limited PT.

MattH

12-04-2007, 08:51 PM

So your saying to make a new set, put the cards out in white border, and expect them to not devalue the black bordered alternatives? I think you should do some market research.

Chronicles KILLED Legends, Antiquities, and Arabian prices for a good long time. The Elder Dragons for example were hitting upwards of $30+ each, then immediately dropped to $15 each, pretty much overnight, thanks to white bordered versions hitting only $5-10 each, and still tournament legal.

Be careful that you know your card price history too!

Reprints only hurt card prices when those prices are artificially high due to extreme scarcity. When a valuable card actually has enough play value to justify the price, then reprints actually increase its price.

For example:

1. When Call of the Herd was reprinted in Time Spiral, the Odyssey copies of the card jumped from $5 to $12-15.
2. Same with Shadowmage Infiltrator.
3. Tormod's Crypts from The Dark also went up in value following Time Spiral.
4. When Pithing Needle was reprinted in 10th, it fell from $20 to $15. That is not a spectacular crash. It suggests to me that the card was a $15 card all along, artificially inflated to $20 due to the unpopularity (and thus fewer packs opened, so fewer Needles opened) of SoK.

Now, to be fair, 1-3 were all an example of a card re-entering Standard. CotH had been $12 when Odyssey was legal, then it fell, then raised again when re-introduced. But Needle did not fall in price during its brief absence from Standard. It was $20 when it was Standard-legal, and $20 afterwards, and only fell when the reprint brought supply up to meet demand.

Now when a very poor card gets reprinted, that is the only case when price plummets: the Elder Dragon Legends were the first example, but also several others. Chronicles only really hurt the prices of the poor cards it reprinted - which just happened to be 98% of the set. AN Erhnam Djinns did not go down at all.

Since dual lands are clearly not bad cards which happen to be scarce, I think a reprint of virtually any size cannot ruin their prices. If it brings them down in price, it will only do it by $5 or so, and there's plenty of reason to suspect that reprints might actually RAISE their value. Reprinting Juzam Djinn would be ruinous, since that card's price tag is completely tied up in sentimental value and hype. About 2% of its $200 value is due to play value (i.e. it 'should' be about a $5 card, a figure which I take from Plague Sliver). Reprinting Force of Will will do very little to lower the value of Alliances FoWs, since that card really is good enough to justify the $20+ price tag.

Really, my whole post can be summed up thusly: prices on a/b/u/r duals would only fall if a reprint brought the supply higher than the demand, and I contend that even a full-scale reprint would not bring the supply up to meet the existing demand, much less the additional demand a reprint would bring.

(i should note: Whether Wizards will or will not, should or should not reprint is not something I'm addressing here; I'm strictly talking about what WOULD happen IF they did.)

frogboy

12-04-2007, 08:59 PM

There won't be reprints, and there won't need to be either, because there is never going to be a supply crisis. There are plenty of duals to support a moderately popular format at the level of official support that WotC is willing to offer.

I'm trying to be as inoffensive as possible here, but are you trying to be deliberately obtuse or just attempting to make yourself look wise and all-knowing while deigning to impart bits of wisdom to the masses? Either way, it's extremely annoying.

APriestOfGix

12-04-2007, 09:09 PM

Be careful that you know your card price history too!

Reprints only hurt card prices when those prices are artificially high due to extreme scarcity. When a valuable card actually has enough play value to justify the price, then reprints actually increase its price.

For example:

1. When Call of the Herd was reprinted in Time Spiral, the Odyssey copies of the card jumped from $5 to $12-15.
2. Same with Shadowmage Infiltrator.
3. Tormod's Crypts from The Dark also went up in value following Time Spiral.
4. When Pithing Needle was reprinted in 10th, it fell from $20 to $15. That is not a spectacular crash. It suggests to me that the card was a $15 card all along, artificially inflated to $20 due to the unpopularity (and thus fewer packs opened, so fewer Needles opened) of SoK.

Now, to be fair, 1-3 were all an example of a card re-entering Standard. CotH had been $12 when Odyssey was legal, then it fell, then raised again when re-introduced. But Needle did not fall in price during its brief absence from Standard. It was $20 when it was Standard-legal, and $20 afterwards, and only fell when the reprint brought supply up to meet demand.

Now when a very poor card gets reprinted, that is the only case when price plummets: the Elder Dragon Legends were the first example, but also several others. Chronicles only really hurt the prices of the poor cards it reprinted - which just happened to be 98% of the set. AN Erhnam Djinns did not go down at all.

Since dual lands are clearly not bad cards which happen to be scarce, I think a reprint of virtually any size cannot ruin their prices. If it brings them down in price, it will only do it by $5 or so, and there's plenty of reason to suspect that reprints might actually RAISE their value. Reprinting Juzam Djinn would be ruinous, since that card's price tag is completely tied up in sentimental value and hype. About 2% of its $200 value is due to play value (i.e. it 'should' be about a $5 card, a figure which I take from Plague Sliver). Reprinting Force of Will will do very little to lower the value of Alliances FoWs, since that card really is good enough to justify the $20+ price tag.

Really, my whole post can be summed up thusly: prices on a/b/u/r duals would only fall if a reprint brought the supply higher than the demand, and I contend that even a full-scale reprint would not bring the supply up to meet the existing demand, much less the additional demand a reprint would bring.

(i should note: Whether Wizards will or will not, should or should not reprint is not something I'm addressing here; I'm strictly talking about what WOULD happen IF they did.)

This is VERY true. If wizards prints more card, you price drops 5-10, but they indroduce a PTQ with it, and your price jumps up 15-20, giving you a 5-15 dollar profit margin!

MattH

12-04-2007, 09:11 PM

This is VERY true. If wizards prints more card, you price drops 5-10, but they indroduce a PTQ with it, and your price jumps up 15-20, giving you a 5-15 dollar profit margin!

But please note that it only applies to reprinting strong cards; if a card gets reprinted but goes unused, then yeah, its value WILL plummet.

Machinus

12-04-2007, 09:11 PM

I don't see the relevance of your speculations. I'd be happy to address questions about the topic.

Goaswerfraiejen

12-04-2007, 09:41 PM

Do I think Legacy manabases are too expensive? Yes.

Do I think there's a shortage of cards? I wouldn't know; of course, since duals and fetches are important to the manabases of two formats worldwide, it's a distinct possibility--at least outside the U.S. Thankfully, the internet makes acquisition fairly easy.

Is the cost of a Legacy manabase prohibitive? Sure, considering that Legacy events are scare outside the U.S. (especially in places that aren't exactly huge, bustling metropolises). Obviously, a few hundred dollars isn't too much for someone who's working full-time and has a few opportunities to make use of the cards; as a university student, however--and a man who'll be a grad student for some time yet, then will want to start a family, etc.--and as a man in a part of the world with little to no Legacy action, I just can't justify anything more than gradual additions to my collection.

What do I think the problem is? Acquiring a full set of duals isn't too hard or bad (money-wise). Neither is a full set of fetches. Or even just a set of what you need. What's problematic (especially money-wise) is acquiring both. That's where the cost gets really prohibitive.

Lastly, I don't get the impression that re-printing duals or fetches would help with prices at all, because I don't think that scarcity is really inflating the price overmuch. What Wizards (or players--but that has zero chance of happening =/) would have to do to lower the price would be to reprint and to sell them at a fixed (and relatively low) price. Is that likely to happen? Probably not in the near future, no.

Nydaeli

12-05-2007, 01:28 AM

They should release a set of dual land reprints.

However, they should look terrible. I suggest Future Sight borders. This way there will still be demand for duals you will not be ashamed to own.

Nihil Credo

12-05-2007, 01:29 AM

Pink borders?

Sims

12-05-2007, 01:35 AM

Pink borders?

Metallic hot pink like those new iPods and I'd be on a set like fuckin' .... i dunno.. but i'd fuckin be there.

Give me the Future Sight frames, that's fine... i don't care. I'd still play em.

Zach Tartell

12-05-2007, 01:44 AM

no matter how embarrassing they would look, you have to remember that they'd come foil. Imagine the price for a foil Sea.

APriestOfGix

12-05-2007, 01:54 AM

no foils...

Slay

12-05-2007, 02:01 AM

How about they hand out a random set of 4 duals that look like shit to every person that attends a Legacy PTQ for the first few seasons or something? That way there would still be trading and worth assigned to them, there'd still have less duals than would saturate the market(by definition, because half the duals they will get will be crap ones), so they would be worth something still while old cool looking duals would still be worth what they should be.
-Slay

xsockmonkeyx

12-05-2007, 02:08 AM

How about they hand out a random set of 4 duals that look like shit to every person that attends a Legacy PTQ for the first few seasons or something?

Print them in black and white, white borders, and non-foil. People like black borders, colors, and shiny things.

Lego

12-05-2007, 02:16 AM

Print them in black and white, white borders, and non-foil. People like black borders, colors, and shiny things.

With no art. I wold actually play those.

xsockmonkeyx

12-05-2007, 02:20 AM

With no art. I wold actually play those.

Or that. They would have to be less desirable in the market than revised edition. At least they would easy to fetch if they are were ugly.

DeathwingZERO

12-05-2007, 02:32 AM

I don't really think that's true. I mean, the white bordered version of Mana Crypt was absolutely butt ass ugly, yet people loved it because it was the "pimp" version, being the only white bordered one.

Maybe handing out one each in some sort of fashion for each attendee, but a deckset would probably be excessive.

center425

12-05-2007, 02:35 AM

What about as a set of player rewards cards? That way the young FNMers could start getting there hands on duals for the cost of attending tournments.

DeathwingZERO

12-05-2007, 02:38 AM

What about as a set of player rewards cards? That way the young FNMers could start getting there hands on duals for the cost of attending tournments.

Too easy, even the "specials" like Hypnotic Specter would flood the market too fast, I ended up getting ahold of like 120 of them with nearly no trouble. And typically they wouldn't pull off a 10 card set like that.

JACO

12-05-2007, 09:51 AM

You have two points here, both of which are related, and incorrect.
The problem will become if Wizards were to have a Legacy Pro Tour, not a one-time Grand Prix. I'm neither an economist nor mathematician, I'm just going on the hunch that a 1000x fold increase in the demand of Tropical Islands, etc. will make the costs explode--like $90 Tundras (Revised, SP). That's my fear. Can someone shoot this down?
Simply, if WotC Organized Play and the powers that be decided that Legacy should have a full-blown Pro Tour, with hundreds of qualifiers and conceivably tens of thousands of new players interested in Legacy, the $20-$30 dual is going to double (at least) in price overnight. Without a change in supply, many interested players will be pushed right out of the market.

Case in point: 4c Landstill, which resurrected this debate. Using the MOTL Price Guide, which is as good an indicator for fair market price as we're likely to find, the manabase runs anywhere from $450 - $500 when you buy from eBay. That's a lot of money. If Legacy were to be a popular competitive format, the manabase would easily exceed $1,000.First of all, you're talking about probably the most expensive mana base in Legacy as your one example (43land.dec also a possibility). If dual lands and Force of Wills were really going to spike because of serious GP or PT level competition, they would have done so after the announcement of the first 2 Legacy Grand Prix stops (Lille and Philadelphia). Before this time, when there were rumors of a Legacy GP, I thought this might be the case, and accumulated dual after dual, and Force of Will after Force of Will. I had over 150 Force of Wills at one point during this time. Throughout the months leading up to, and after these Grand Prixs, if there was going to be a significant bump, you would have seen it. And the big price spike never happened, even at a time when there was significant buzz about "more support for Legacy," potentially regular stops on the Grand Prix (which have far higher turnouts than Pro Tours), etc.

The speculation that a regular Legacy Grand Prix circuit would create a meteoric rise in prices of out of print cards is totally without merit or the data to support it, so I would suggest you stop using that as an argument.

If you're trying to make an argument regarding print run and limited availability of dual lands, you're not going to have a valid argument either, due to the massive print run of Revised. While some lazy Pros who never want to own their own cards might bitch and moan, by and large there was never a problem with any availability of cards even when the original dual lands were in EXTENDED, even after the rotation (during the period where duals were still allowed to be played), which was a far more widely played format than Legacy currently is.

Shtriga

12-05-2007, 10:03 AM

I had over 150 Force of Wills at one point during this time.

:eek:

APriestOfGix

12-05-2007, 11:00 AM

prices did jump for the GP's...

i remember when Bayou used to be 12-15 bucks, now they are 20...

freakish777

12-05-2007, 11:19 AM

1. When Call of the Herd was reprinted in Time Spiral, the Odyssey copies of the card jumped from $5 to $12-15.
2. Same with Shadowmage Infiltrator.
3. Tormod's Crypts from The Dark also went up in value following Time Spiral.

You're forgetting one very important fact here. THEY ALL BECAME STANDARD LEGAL AGAIN, HENCE THE DEMAND JUMPING THROUGH THE ROOF!

Wizards will never reprint Duals in a way that would make them Standard legal. They'd just reprint the shocklands if what they wanted to do was reprint good multi-color lands.

Reprinting them in a set that wasn't Standard legal would therefore be far less likely to increase the price of Revised Duals. In fact, no matter how you slice it with the dual lands, reprinting them will drive the price down guarenteed. If suddenly there's more demand for hot Legacy action, and Wizards reprints Duals to meet demand, and Revised duals stay at the same price, it means that had Wizards not reprinted them, the price would have been higher, therefore actually lowering the price by creating more supply. As I've stated before, I think Wizards is more than capable of determining what's best for it's business and we likely are not.

In short:

Dear Everyone,

Please quit worrying and arguing. It gets us nowhere.

If you want to see another Legacy GP, or a Legacy PTQ season, or even a Legacy PT, how about you instead e-mail Wizards letting them know what your wishes are. It's more productive. By 100 Million Light Years. Those that want to see reprints, you should also e-mail Wizards instead of arguing on a message board. Those that don't want to see reprints, guess what I'm going to suggest you do... e-mail. Wizards.

Machinus

12-05-2007, 01:05 PM

You have two points here, both of which are related, and incorrect. First of all, you're talking about probably the most expensive mana base in Legacy as your one example (43land.dec also a possibility). If dual lands and Force of Wills were really going to spike because of serious GP or PT level competition, they would have done so after the announcement of the first 2 Legacy Grand Prix stops (Lille and Philadelphia). Before this time, when there were rumors of a Legacy GP, I thought this might be the case, and accumulated dual after dual, and Force of Will after Force of Will. I had over 150 Force of Wills at one point during this time. Throughout the months leading up to, and after these Grand Prixs, if there was going to be a significant bump, you would have seen it. And the big price spike never happened, even at a time when there was significant buzz about "more support for Legacy," potentially regular stops on the Grand Prix (which have far higher turnouts than Pro Tours), etc.

The speculation that a regular Legacy Grand Prix circuit would create a meteoric rise in prices of out of print cards is totally without merit or the data to support it, so I would suggest you stop using that as an argument.

If you're trying to make an argument regarding print run and limited availability of dual lands, you're not going to have a valid argument either, due to the massive print run of Revised. While some lazy Pros who never want to own their own cards might bitch and moan, by and large there was never a problem with any availability of cards even when the original dual lands were in EXTENDED, even after the rotation (during the period where duals were still allowed to be played), which was a far more widely played format than Legacy currently is.

Jaco is completely right.

There has already been intense demand for these cards for a long time. These cards have been valuable since the beginning of formats, and they are among the most well-known and sought out rares in the game.

There were more than enough dual lands to support Old Extended, and there were no supply problems when Wizards started planning GPs for the first time. The market changed surprisingly little before and during these tournaments, and the coverage they generated.

The market for these cards has experienced high demand for an extended period of time, and they are readily available at very good prices, and with unparalleled security in their long term value. This is the strongest part of the secondary market, and every magic business and veteran player has already added their demand to it.

What this means is that it would take even more extraordinary demand to cause a problematic change in card prices. Being paranoid about supply severely underestimates the ability of the market to meet demand for these cards. We are probably not going to get a PT for other reasons, but even in the event of pro tour support for Legacy, the market could handle a substantial amount of pro players.

My 75,000 figure is the minimum, as that is the number of full playsets. Players can't use all 40 duals in a tournament. The blue duals would have slightly higher demand, as they always have, but the distribution of duals in tournament decks is wide, and many decks don't even use duals. The different archetypes use really different manabases. The number of players that could be realistically supported by revised print runs is probably closer to 150,000.

Shtriga

12-05-2007, 01:54 PM

well, thats a pretty good point you have there. maybe there won't be a problem after all, that's relieving

Bardo

12-05-2007, 06:26 PM

@ JACO and Machinus. After going through your arguments, I'm inclined to agree with you. This is a good point:

Throughout the months leading up to, and after these Grand Prixs, if there was going to be a significant bump, you would have seen it. And the big price spike never happened, even at a time when there was significant buzz about "more support for Legacy,"
There may have been a price blip (there certainly was for Flash, which went from $0.25 to $12.00, but that's besides the point), but it's true that it was minor and not necessarily a result of the GP or the anticipation of more attention to be garnered.

My 75,000 figure is the minimum, as that is the number of full playsets. Players can't use all 40 duals in a tournament. The blue duals would have slightly higher demand, as they always have, but the distribution of duals in tournament decks is wide, and many decks don't even use duals. The different archetypes use really different manabases. The number of players that could be realistically supported by revised print runs is probably closer to 150,000.

I think that 150k number might be high, but I understand what you're getting. $95 Tundras is pretty unlikely, now that I think about it. :smile:

frogboy

12-05-2007, 07:05 PM

I can't be the only one confused by this comment. Are you saying: 1) there is no supply problem if demand spikes; 2) Hasbro/WotC will reprint duals (in some manner) if they decide to run a Legacy PT season; or 3) there is little possibility of a Legacy PT?

There won't be reprints, and there won't need to be either, because there is never going to be a supply crisis. There are plenty of duals to support a moderately popular format at the level of official support that WotC is willing to offer.

This didn't actually answer any question Bardo asked, hence my question concerning you deliberately being obtuse.

Claiming that long term demand for duals would not increase with the addition of a Legacy PTQ circuit is ludicrous. There are a lot more Magic players and PTQs now than there were prior to the Extended rotation. People who play PTQs regularly currently have no demand for duals. Were there a Legacy PTQ season, suddenly they would have demand for duals. Saying that because Grands Prix didn't affect the long term demand, neither would a PTQ season is faulty logic; first, short term demand increased during the period leading up to the GPs, and second, GPs are individual events, while PTQ seasons last a few months. (granted, after the season ended demand would shift again towards pre-PTQ prices)

I don't think they'll balloon out to $90 or whatever but demand will certainly increase, and thus price.

Afro

12-05-2007, 07:13 PM

This is a stupid discussion if you ask me. If the duals get to a price point that is shitty for the format, Wizards will nuke them like they did to Illusionary Mask when the lists seperated.

ForceofWill

12-05-2007, 07:15 PM

They can't ban dual lands....

Machinus

12-05-2007, 08:08 PM

demand will certainly increase, and thus price.

Within perfectly acceptable amounts.

Wallace

12-05-2007, 08:14 PM

Within perfectly acceptable amounts.

Whats an acceptable amount: $10, $20, $50? That is just a matter of opinion, an acceptable amount for you might not be the same to someone else. I think they are to high right now, I mean I can point out 5-8 stores that have an overstock of duals because they charge to much for them. I really don't want my mana base to be the most expensive part of my deck. I build my decks around this fact, I play decks that I can borrow the duals for, or decks that don't use any at all.

Slay

12-05-2007, 08:17 PM

I really don't want my mana base to be the most expensive part of my deck.

1998 called, they want their complaints about the secondary market back.
-Slay

Machinus

12-05-2007, 08:17 PM

I think the CCG part of MTG carries a lot of weight.

But really, even if you think it's too expensive, it isn't going to cause a problem for pro players who don't own the cards they play with anyway. For those without access to private collections, it's just a stable investment that can be cashed in at any time, unlike traveling expenses, tournament fees, time investment, etc.

Tacosnape

12-05-2007, 08:44 PM

Machinus is right.

Buying a set of Tropical Islands is the Magic equivalent of buying a bar of gold. It's value is only going to appreciate. The only difference is, with Tropical Islands, you can play awesome magic decks and have a lot of fun. With a Bar of Gold, you can only amuse your friends for so long by going "Hey! Look at my bar of gold, you peasant, you." before they stop hanging out with you.

Wallace

12-05-2007, 08:48 PM

Bovinious

12-05-2007, 08:51 PM

Earlier in this thread someone mentioned there are about 3,000,000 duals out there but I have some questions. Is that number how many were printed or how many are in the cardpool, basically does it count all the ones that have been destroyed or sit in an attic somewhere? and also, how many Tarmogoyfs for instance are out there? Does WOTC publish how much of each set they print? Like I realize Future Sight is still in print but for Guildpact for instance if we knew they printed 5,000,000 booster boxes we could figure out how much of each rare there is and compare to how many duals are thought to be out there.

DeathwingZERO

12-05-2007, 08:51 PM

This is a stupid discussion if you ask me. If the duals get to a price point that is shitty for the format, Wizards will nuke them like they did to Illusionary Mask when the lists seperated.

While true given our past experiences at bannings, I find this to probably be an even worse scenario than having to shell out $90 for WB duals. Killing duals in Legacy would be one hell of a format shifter.

APriestOfGix

12-05-2007, 08:57 PM

It would no longer be legacy, it would be combo mania.

Decks would lose the ability to pack many colors, and goblins and combo would rule the day...

etrigan

12-05-2007, 09:22 PM

I think the format would adapt pretty quickly, given the existence of Ravnica duals. It's not like we'll be reduced to playing Land Cap and Pine Barrens.

DeathwingZERO

12-05-2007, 09:31 PM

I think the format would adapt pretty quickly, given the existence of Ravnica duals. It's not like we'll be reduced to playing Land Cap and Pine Barrens.

2 life or coming in to play tapped would be enough of a change in decks packing 4-6 duals that I think there'd be a drastic shift to full on aggro or burn just to take advantage of the severe lack of speed (or life total) on aggro-control's behalf. I'd be interested in seeing where that went.

Or they just may take up playing more basics and a higher fetch ratio, which would also be rather fun to disrupt.

Wallace

12-05-2007, 09:32 PM

I think the format would adapt pretty quickly, given the existence of Ravnica duals. It's not like we'll be reduced to playing Land Cap and Pine Barrens.

Wizards would reprint duals before they would ban them, banning them would drop their value more than reprinting them. If they do get reprinted, don't think they ever will, they won't be the same cards. You will just get new lands that do the same things as duals.

DeathwingZERO

12-05-2007, 09:58 PM

Wizards would reprint duals before they would ban them, banning them would drop their value more than reprinting them. If they do get reprinted, don't think they ever will, they won't be the same cards. You will just get new lands that do the same things as duals.

Um, have you been paying attention at all here? They WON'T reprint. It's company policy, and one that's been in effect since 1995. They've also stated that the Ravnica duals are probably going to be the closest thing we'll get to functional dual lands of old.

And again, dropping value of the cards is not of Wizards concern, as banning them from Legacy still keeps them legal in Vintage, where card prices don't matter. The only thing they care about with the secondary market is keeping the items collectible for those who want to continue collecting, and reprints are much worse for that support.

Zach Tartell

12-05-2007, 10:02 PM

Um, have you been paying attention at all here? They WON'T reprint. It's company policy, and one that's been in effect since 1995.

If I recall correctly, Psy blast was on the "We ain't gonna re-print this shit" list too.

DeathwingZERO

12-05-2007, 10:07 PM

Actually I never recalled seeing that on there, I just remembered someone talking about it when referring to burn in "outside" color schemes a while back. Surprisingly, neither are Mana Drain or Force of Will :D

I'm pretty sure they haven't hit any of the DNR stuff yet, but don't quote me. They are reprinting Legendary things now, and I don't know if the list was updated to reflect that, as previously all Legendary things were not allowed to be reprinted, as it didn't reflect "continuity" of the storyline.

Oh, and foil Judge Promotional and the like don't count either ;p

Wallace

12-05-2007, 10:16 PM

Here's your Reserved list. (http://64.223.12.31/default.asp?x=magic/products/ReprintPolicy) It was made in 2002 and hasn't changed since. Funny Force of will isn't on the list?

mikekelley

12-05-2007, 10:28 PM

etrigan

12-05-2007, 10:30 PM

The Reserved Policy is something Wizards does to appease collectors. It's changed many times over the years. It has no real value.

If they want to reprint something, they will. They'll either change the policy, or carefully skirt around it by printing functional reprints that are technically not functional reprints (like Drop of Honey/Porphyry Nodes). Nothing is sacred.

DeathwingZERO

12-05-2007, 10:33 PM

Ya, so they still haven't updated it to reflect reprinting of Legendary x's. I'm still curious who's decision it's going to be in Wizards when they revise that list, is that an R&D thing completely, or a combination of R&D and Marketing?

So ya, so far scrolling there's no Force of Will, Psionic Blast, Mana Drain, Reset (LOL), Legend's lands (Urborg, Tolaria, etc), Hymn, Oath of Druids (LOL LOL), obviously no Mirage-Visions tutors, Swords to Plowshares.......and that's just off the top of my head searching.

Also, a lot of those cards that aren't Legendary in themselves are taken off because of connection to the storyline. There's so many cards on there that just confuse me as to why they aren't able to be reprinted, as core sets aren't supposed to follow the continuity at all.

The Reserved Policy is something Wizards does to appease collectors. It's changed many times over the years. It has no real value.

If they want to reprint something, they will. They'll either change the policy, or carefully skirt around it by printing functional reprints that are technically not functional reprints (like Drop of Honey/Porphyry Nodes). Nothing is sacred.

Actually, that's not true, necessarily. They will do functional reprints of cards that they believe to not be powerful enough to be on the list in the first place, or putting them back in the color they should be in, as opposed to original print (Drop vs Nodes). They have also taken off cards that were up there due to errata changes or rewordings, but mostly they just kept adding to it until they finally stopped at Mercadian. Even then, I'm sure certain things like Fact or Fiction and others are probably going to be on the new version of the list, if it's ever updated.

But they still haven't gotten around to changing the list, as it's not a priority yet (though many people have demanded they at least look it over again). They have stated time and time again that overpowered and high demand cards such as the duals and Power will never see the light of day again, and for 14 years, they've been right.

Bovinious

12-05-2007, 10:34 PM

Psionic Blast was Timeshifted...but yeah a lot of noteworthy cards arnt on the reserved list, and there is always the possibility WOTC decides to get rid of the whole reserved list BS and do what they want.

Wallace

12-05-2007, 10:37 PM

frogboy

12-05-2007, 11:36 PM

Whats an acceptable amount: $10, $20, $50? That is just a matter of opinion, an acceptable amount for you might not be the same to someone else. I think they are to high right now, I mean I can point out 5-8 stores that have an overstock of duals because they charge to much for them.

If duals cost $5000, there would clearly be a fairly insurmountable barrier for most of the Magic-playing population to play with them, which would be significant in a PTQ circuit. Therefore, there clearly exists a (probably lower but it's probably still close to three figures) value that, should duals attain, they would be so expensive that the format would basically be comprised of "haves" and "have-nots" with the "haves" getting a clear advantage. Below that value, fine, whatever. Above it, eep.

What you think is too high for a dual is probably not what I think is too high for a dual. Stores will sell duals for as much as they can convince people to buy them for; they're probably moving or expect to move those duals in a reasonable timeframe. (or they're stupid, but stupid firms tend to cease to exist.)

But really, even if you think it's too expensive, it isn't going to cause a problem for pro players who don't own the cards they play with anyway. For those without access to private collections, it's just a stable investment that can be cashed in at any time, unlike traveling expenses, tournament fees, time investment, etc.

I don't actually know what the rate of appreciation is for duals and similarly expensive cards, but I'd be surprised if since 2005 it's beat a mutual fund.

Kronicler

12-05-2007, 11:46 PM

In reality, I think that wizards fully grasps what we are talking about here, and because of the limited amount of duals and the price tag of legacy in general I don't think they will ever run a legacy PTQ. I recently became convinced of this when I heard MaRo talk about BYOS (bring your own standard), one of the invitational formats. I'm not sure where I heard him talk about it, but he described it as a format that could become a PTQ format after extended rotated so that people could play with most of the old cards without being able to play with revised / old dual lands, thereby making the format more accessible. I think that wizards will do a BYOS PTQ long before they do a legacy PTQ.

Kronicler

Afro

12-06-2007, 04:07 AM

Here's your Reserved list. (http://64.223.12.31/default.asp?x=magic/products/ReprintPolicy) It was made in 2002 and hasn't changed since. Funny Force of will isn't on the list?

Force of Will's only chance at a reprint outside of a Judge Promo Foil came and went with coldsnap and their shitty theme decks. My guess is the only reason it wasn't reprinted in a theme deck is they didn't want what happened with the Rat deck with Jitte. It was still as expensive as the card itself.

DeathwingZERO

12-06-2007, 04:25 AM

Nihil Credo

12-06-2007, 10:07 AM

I recently became convinced of this when I heard MaRo talk about BYOS (bring your own standard), one of the invitational formats. I'm not sure where I heard him talk about it, but he described it as a format that could become a PTQ format after extended rotated so that people could play with most of the old cards without being able to play with revised / old dual lands, thereby making the format more accessible. I think that wizards will do a BYOS PTQ long before they do a legacy PTQ.

Going off-topic here, but IMO that format still needs lots of work before it can become an interesting idea. Even with the current 'ban everything that was ever banned' rule, decks in that format are built by starting with 2-3 of the most powerful cards ever printed - like Legacy - followed by 'padding' the deck with every decent cards you can find in your sets - decidedly unlike Legacy, and the reason why that format won't ever have the diversity of Legacy, or even Extended.

FoolofaTook

12-06-2007, 01:12 PM

But they still haven't gotten around to changing the list, as it's not a priority yet (though many people have demanded they at least look it over again). They have stated time and time again that overpowered and high demand cards such as the duals and Power will never see the light of day again, and for 14 years, they've been right.

Here's a question though: how does the Juzam Djinn fit in that equation? It's no longer over-powered by the definition that we would normally use (that no other creatures approach it in power and ease of deployment) and yet it has not been reprinted in card form since the very first Magic expansion.

I agree that there are some cards that are un-reprintable at this point because of a demonstrated tendency for them to work their way into the vast majority of decks in formats they are legal in, however I see a large number of un-reprinted cards that just do not fit that standard.

I think the collectibility of cards is a bigger part of the equation than we are willing to admit at this point. I highly suspect that Tarmogoyf was printed as a G1 cost mainly to make it a very expensive collectible moving forward when WoTC declines to ever reprint it. Of course it also fits the include in every likely deck category, but that just makes it less likely to be reprinted in my opinion.

Afro

12-06-2007, 01:46 PM

Actually they knew that if they reprinted Force it was going to be upgraded to a rare from an uncommon, and they didn't want to make the IA cards in the theme decks rares, only commons and uncommons. That way it showcased the Coldsnap rares.

This may be true but doesn't make any sense. What difference does it make what rarity it is in a theme deck. It doesn't matter if it c/u/r because simply put it is in a theme deck and still isn't standard legal. The only thing it might do is increase the number per theme deck but I highly doubt they would put more than one per deck.

freakish777

12-06-2007, 03:05 PM

Here's a question though: how does the Juzam Djinn fit in that equation? <snip>

it has not been reprinted in card form since the very first Magic expansion.

That's because Wizards has printed 2 cards that fill the Juzam Djinn role.

Grinning Demon
Plague Sliver

Guess what doesn't see Legacy play? Juzam Djinn doesn't fit into the equation because even if they reprinted an identical version (with a different name), it still wouldn't be played by 99.9% of serious Legacy decks.

Wallace

12-06-2007, 03:15 PM

In my opinion, dual lands cost what they should.

They are a 13 year old card in high demand, with a high collectable value and many uses.

If people can afford Goyf for standard, they can afford a set of duals for a two or three color legacy deck.

This would be true if Goyf wasn't a $2-$4 card for the first month it was out. Tarmogoyf can still be opened in draft, sealed decks and random prize packs/booster boxs. Duals are a lot hader to get a hold of then Goyf's, hell I sold 10 goyf's at GP Columbus for $2 each.

Shtriga

12-06-2007, 04:26 PM

This would be true if Goyf wasn't a $2-$4 card for the first month it was out. Tarmogoyf can still be opened in draft, sealed decks and random prize packs/booster boxs. Duals are a lot hader to get a hold of then Goyf's, hell I sold 10 goyf's at GP Columbus for $2 each.

I'd be kicking myself if that was my case :)

Goyf was a major sleeper, you really didn't realise how good it was until you slapped it into a deck and playtested, atleast I didn't. and it's now the #1 creature in my book

APriestOfGix

12-06-2007, 08:48 PM

duals on the no-reprint list. Topic closed, they will not be reprinted...

Sanguine Voyeur

12-06-2007, 09:23 PM

duals on the no-reprint list. Topic closed, they will not be reprinted...I heard some where, but I can't remember where so I could be way off, that they've changed the list in the past.

Besides, they've gotten (http://magiccards.info/pc/en/28.html) around (http://magiccards.info/ts/en/124.html) it before (http://magiccards.info/pc/en/121.html).

Wallace

12-06-2007, 09:30 PM

DeathwingZERO

12-06-2007, 10:29 PM

Zach Tartell

12-06-2007, 10:37 PM

duals on the no-reprint list. Topic closed, they will not be reprinted...

Wasn't it you who made this thread? Why the sudden change of heart?

DeathwingZERO

12-06-2007, 10:38 PM

I think it's because he got the point XD

EDIT: Wow, this comment looks all sorts of out of place on it's own page....

Arctic_Slicer

12-07-2007, 08:04 AM

I heard some where, but I can't remember where so I could be way off, that they've changed the list in the past.

Besides, they've gotten (http://magiccards.info/pc/en/28.html) around (http://magiccards.info/ts/en/124.html) it before (http://magiccards.info/pc/en/121.html).

As Sacearuse said, functional reprints are very specific things. They could slap legendary on a card or even something as mundane as changing the creature type and it wouldn't be considered a functional reprint anymore.

Q: How close can a card be to a functional reprint of a card on the Reserved List before it can see print?
–Graeme, Eau Claire, WI, USA

Thunder Spirit

Balance

A: From Aaron Forsythe, Director of Magic R&D:

From the Official Reprint Policy: "A card is considered functionally identical to another card if it has the same card type, subtypes, abilities, mana cost, power, and toughness." That statement gives us a ton of leeway with creatures. We could, under the letter of the law, the following variations on the Reserved card Thunder Spirit (as long as they had new names):

* Thunder Spirit with the creature type Griffin
* Thunder Spirit as a 2 ManaWhite Mana 2/2
* Thunder Spirit as a 1 ManaWhite ManaWhite Mana 3/3
* Thunder Spirit with double strike instead of first strike

Spells are a little tougher because there are fewer knobs to turn. But we could print these variations on Balance, also on the Reserved List(again, with new names):

* Balance as a 1 ManaWhite Mana instant
* Balance as a White Mana sorcery
* Balance as a 1 ManaWhite Mana sorcery that also "balanced" artifacts and/or enchantments
* Balance as a 1 ManaWhite Mana Arcane sorcery.

We wouldn't actually do any of those for several reasons. One, many of the cards on the Reserved List are actually too powerful to reprint (like Balance), so we certainly aren't going to make better versions of them. Two, we don't like obsoleting existing cards in general regardless of whether they are on the Reserved List or not. Three, we feel the Reserved List is important enough that it is worth following the spirit of the law as opposed to just the letter.

Planar Chaos let us get away with about as much as we were willing to; it contained several "timeshifted" versions of Reserved cards, like Porphyry Nodes (Drop of Honey) and Null Profusion (Recycle).

Ask Wizards September 2007 (http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=mtgcom/askwizards/0907)

The reprint policy also doesn't prevent them from printing special promotional cards. If they ever do reprint the dual land it will likely be as a judge promos or something similar. Unless they decide to slag their reprint policy(unlikely) that's about the best you can expect.

APriestOfGix

12-07-2007, 09:47 AM

close reprints just lead to people running eight though...

Bovinious

12-07-2007, 10:16 AM

probably not if one is strictly better than the other, you dont see (good) people running Rav. duals when you can just run fetches and the originals.

FoolofaTook

12-07-2007, 12:22 PM

That's because Wizards has printed 2 cards that fill the Juzam Djinn role.

Grinning Demon
Plague Sliver

Guess what doesn't see Legacy play? Juzam Djinn doesn't fit into the equation because even if they reprinted an identical version (with a different name), it still wouldn't be played by 99.9% of serious Legacy decks.

That's making my point for me. Juzam's are not reprinted largely for collectibility reasons. I think we over-estimate the number of reprint decisions that are pure power and the number that are instead to maintain the overall value of Magic as a collectible.

FoolofaTook

12-07-2007, 12:32 PM

@foolofatook:As for Juzam, he fits in with the whole "collector" aspect. It's like going out to a car show and seeing the first true muscle cars. They have value because people appreciate things that remind them of their past, and were seen all over the place back in the day. Nostalgia is his category, so to speak. Not to mention, he's probably arguably the #1 recognizable icon, next to probably Black Lotus.

I agree on all points here. The Juzam was the first easily cast creature that laughed at your opponent on turn 1. Literally. He was probably also the single largest reason that Swords to Plowshares found it's way into most tournament decks that ran any white at all.

I could see using him over the Grinning Demon today because he does damage instead of costing life. Maybe not, 6/6 is a beast, but you never know.

Atwa

12-07-2007, 02:33 PM

DeathwingZERO

12-07-2007, 10:28 PM

For all the people who say the reprint policy won't be changed:

They've changed the policy so they could do a reprint of Clone in the past, not sure where i've read that, but I think it was in a column by MaRo around the release of Onslaught.

Clone may have been taken off because it had no right being there. It's on color, it's balanced, and it being printed in multiple core sets past Unlimited showed it was fine. That may have just been a mistake.

As stated though, they still need to revise that list. The DNR is outdated, because Legendary permanents are allowed in core sets now, and a lot of the cards that had to do with the storyline continuity being up there are lumped into that category as well. In case your not sure about those cards, think things like City of Traitors, non-Legendary but very crucial to the Rath story.