eBay Economic Indicators

[Dilettante]

Hello. I was wondering if this would be a good idea or bad idea... if I started to track weekly... the average value and volume of certain cards through eBay, generating an index and database designed for Legacy players over time. Is this already done to an extent by someone? Is this useful at all for anyone?

I would provide a weekly general index update indicating change from the last week and last ten weeks and generate statistics based on constructed types when they are applicable. I would only put in so many cards because, after all, it does take a human (monkey) to put all the numbers together.

Possible cards could contain the following characteristics:
-Relatively high volume
-A staple used in Legacy, Extended, and Standard (in all formats where applicable)
-Not too many differing versions (like Birds of Paradise)
-Not too many cards linked to a single deck / deck type
-Track using English non-foil, non-DCI versions
-A mostly stand-alone card that is not dependent on other cards that can rotate out before them (like Teferi and Orim's Chant)
-All prices including shipping

Currently, I have a list as follows:
Bayou (Revised)
Chalice of the Void
Chrome Mox
Dark Confidant
Extirpate
Flooded Strand
Force of Will
Goblin Lackey
Lion's Eye Diamond
Orim's Chant
Pithing Needle
Tarmogoyf
Thoughtseize
Umezawa's Jitte
Volcanic Island (Revised)

[mujadaddy]

Hello. I was wondering if this would be a good idea or bad idea...Good idea. Get to it! :tongue:

[Nightmare]

Hello. I was wondering if this would be a good idea or bad idea... if I started to track weekly... the average value and volume of certain cards through eBay, generating an index and database designed for Legacy players over time. Is this already done to an extent by someone? Is this useful at all for anyone?

Jesus, I thought I was bored. What the hell do you do all day?

[VuRkka]

Why Apathy House isn't enough?
http://www.apathyhouse.com/pricelist/pricelist.php?exact=1&card=Bayou

[Dilettante]

Why Apathy House isn't enough?
http://www.apathyhouse.com/pricelist/pricelist.php?exact=1&card=Bayou

Well, you can see general trend analysis instead of single cards, to look at the bigger picture.

@Nightmare: I develop property. Lawyer/Architect/Consultant phone tag with occasional bursts of craziness... but I multitask very well.

[zulander]

http://www.magictraders.com/
Not the same thing?

[OffTheWall]

This seems like a very cool idea, but this would take a great deal of time to accomplish.

[Tacosnape]

All ideas that give me knowledge without any effort involved on my part are good ideas. Chop chop, my dear fellow.

[Dilettante]

http://www.magictraders.com/
Not the same thing?

Similar, but not meant as a price guide, which is more point-to-point... More to examine overarcing trends over time, the way the different formats interact and affect the overall prices rather than the 'hotness' of individual cards, thus... staples in all the formats. How often have you run into a Wrath in Legacy lately? Garruk and Mutavault? Legacy players have a bit more to analyze than Standard or Extended. New set cards are essentially IPOs in how they spike and trend. Also, Standard players tend to have a lower consideration of the long-term value of cards, trying to 'cut losses' in general rather than 'let it accrue in value'... Extended is a mixed bag... and as for Legacy, there is rarely a rush to get anything new with the rare exception of Hulk Flash... The closest trend these days to such is a sudden influx of Phyrexian Dreadnoughts. I wish something like that could happen for the pages of Fire/Ices I have... Anyway, you get to see the dynamic shifts, since with inter-format staples, they go from one part of the Venn diagramme into the next for the most-part... and from seeing those shifts over time, one can better predict subsequent similar events, like just how much of a price dip you can expect based on the marketability of a card by its volume.

Besides... it's a way that I can statistically put down what I've been doing holistically for years in terms of gathering staples... MTG is a hobby that more than pays for itself for me... rather than a business.

[freakish777]

Swords to Plowshares and Lightning Bolt should be on your list. They're commons, but they are the epitome of the word "Staple" in Legacy.

[Fred Bear]

It sounds almost like you want to develop an 'Legacy Index' almost like the NASDAQ or NYSE. I think it would be a great idea (you could even make smaller niche indices for Combo or Control like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average).

I guess the major points I would make would be -

(1) The more 'pure Legacy staples' you include, the better the index will become. What I mean is - Tundra/Bayou/etc. make better choices than Underground Sea and Tropical Island which both see heavy play in Vintage which will effect pricing.

(2) Volume and even condition seem like they might be significant variables to track.

(3) A weighting system or impact factor might be useful for several 'newer' cards. Tarmogoyf is definitely a Legacy staple, but it is going to be an Extended staple for the next 5 years (assuming they don't change the Extended rotation again) and it's price movement will probably be in more flux associated with Extended season than Legacy movements. By weighting Tarmogoyf into the index, you can minimize false Legacy shifts due to lulls in Extended play or the Standard rotation.

Just some thoughts...

Fred Bear...

[al the great]

Omg this would be amazing as I deal with tons of Legacy cards every week. Just the other day I looked up prices for fifth dawn and the Darksteel block and boy those prices have changed so much.

I think this would help everyone especially if you guys trade alot like I do. I tend to lose prices on big stuff and 'assume' that item is constant while it's not. This would really help out once extended rotates so we can see changes with stuff like Orim's Chant, fetch lands and possibly the Rav dual lands.

It would be great if you could do weekly but I think bi-weekly would be good enough if it's too much work.

[Dilettante]

It sounds almost like you want to develop an 'Legacy Index' almost like the NASDAQ or NYSE. I think it would be a great idea (you could even make smaller niche indices for Combo or Control like the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average).

I guess the major points I would make would be -

(1) The more 'pure Legacy staples' you include, the better the index will become. What I mean is - Tundra/Bayou/etc. make better choices than Underground Sea and Tropical Island which both see heavy play in Vintage which will effect pricing.

(2) Volume and even condition seem like they might be significant variables to track.

(3) A weighting system or impact factor might be useful for several 'newer' cards. Tarmogoyf is definitely a Legacy staple, but it is going to be an Extended staple for the next 5 years (assuming they don't change the Extended rotation again) and it's price movement will probably be in more flux associated with Extended season than Legacy movements. By weighting Tarmogoyf into the index, you can minimize false Legacy shifts due to lulls in Extended play or the Standard rotation.

Just some thoughts...

Fred Bear...


1) Just put down those two as an example... 1 Island and 1 non-Island dual... Might need to put down a Ravnica Dual as a contrast, but hesitant because... they are not often run in Legacy. Trying not to put in anything that fluctuates too much due to low pricing, like Swords/Lightning Bolt, since their high beta would not really be indicative of patterns, but rather flux in its quantity. They are not so much cyclical in pricing so much as quick demand... and truly vary based on condition. There are massive gluts of those cards that are released constantly and not to mention... how many transactions would I have to record??? I was also avoiding cards that have very high degrees of valuation differences between white and black border, but... duals have to fit in somewhere, so only the most liquid (Revised).

2) Condition can be a factor, but trying to avoid it... This would not be an accurate price guide if you are looking to price something at NM-VF-Exposed to your neighbor's chihuahua. Instead, trying to look at the overall trend. I'll try to record every 'valid' transaction I can, but display the information in weekly segments since daily would not really allow for sufficient sampling. The samples would provide an average price, but not an accurate depiction of what would be average for one of a certain condition. That, you can use one of the above-linked pricing sites. It's trying to use the information to better predict how much of an up or downswing one should reasonably expect with the format changes as a whole... and how well cards recapture their price as a block phased out.

3) Weight might throw things off slightly and would constantly have to be adjusted, so it doesn't really work well for long-term comparisons, only short-term. Not to mention the issues with subjective weights... I'd rather separate into 3 categories at the very least for the most basic data rather than weigh... There is the overall, cards that are Extended and Legacy legal... and cards that are Legacy legal only, to show the contrast. Granted, in the above list, there are only 3 plot points for Standard Legal cards, but that's the only staples I see in heavy overarching play (Damnation just didn't make the cut...). However, I'll leave the door open for calculating everything based on say... if everything was $10 on day 0, and then go by purely the percentage shifts.

Hrm, other cards to consider to see the contrasts... Pernicious Deed, Vindicate, Burning Wish, Crucible of Worlds, Engineered Explosives, Exalted Angel, Goblin Piledriver, Vedalken Shackles... What should be on a final list of say... 12 staples representative of the Extended game that is also heavily used in Legacy? I'll try to track somewhere around 20 cards to start, since the list would only be added to over time by the introduction of new sets.

Are there any cards that I should not include in the list on my first post?

[xsockmonkeyx]

+Deed
+Burning Wish
+Wooded Foothills
Maybe Piledriver

Tropical Island would be a better gauge of the market than Volcanic IMO.

EDIT: Maybe Garruk and Countryside Crusher too.

[Dilettante]

Okay, so the list is as follows:

Plateau (Revised)
Burning Wish
Chalice of the Void
Chrome Mox
Dark Confidant
Extirpate
Flooded Strand
Force of Will
Goblin Lackey
Lion's Eye Diamond
Orim's Chant
Pernicious Deed
Pithing Needle
Tarmogoyf
Thoughtseize
Tropical Island (Revised)
Umezawa's Jitte
Wooded Foothills

Will try to get at least 2 weeks of data before starting to post and will make individual sub-indexes based on format. So yes, Pithing Needle counts as Standard. Now if only I could make a web-tool query interface for the database so that people could look up specifics...