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Oh, and it also knocks tops off the top when the opponent uses it to draw an extra card...
Yea, that's pretty awesome.
It also helps you get rid of multiple Top's of your own if you don't have the fetchland to shuffle it away. Cast both Top's, tap one to draw a card, cast Predict naming Top (targetting self). Voila, you basically just got a draw 3 from Predict.
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2. You were at a disadvantage under standstill without wastelands. I really wouldn't worry about dreadstill but Merfolk can be a problem. If you don't have a good Merfolk matchup then I'm not terribly interested because traditionally landstill builds have struggled vs. Tendrils.
Yes, which is why I've been unsatisfied with Standstill for a while and switched to Predict. Standstill is less scary from Merfolk because they don't run as much cantrips as Dreadstill to see it as often, but yes, Standstill is still a bomb for them. The Merfolk matchup is only bad when I don't draw enough removal to keep the board clean enough to hit the lategame (meaning I take 20+ points of damage before I can hit 5+ land drops). Otherwise, they are an aggro strategy that is forced to overcommit against a control deck that runs Wrath of God.
Current sideboard plan for Merfolk:
-2 Counterspell/Counterbalance
-2 Vindicate
+2 Innocent Blood
+2 Engineered Explosives
The extra 1cc spot removal is easier to resolve and helps get me to the lategame, where I am capable of casting the devastating Wrath of God.
Engineered Explosives can blow up Vials and is much easier to cast than Vindicate. It's also another board sweeper against them, and any and all ways for me to kill 2 or more of their guys with a single card (card advantage) is the key to winning that matchup.
In all honesty, I've done alot to improve this matchup vs classic Landstill builds, primarly by making my draw engine functional vs them (dropping Standstill for Predict). Spell Snare may be stronger than Counterbalance vs them since it's less expensive and stops turn 2 Standstill's, but I've still gotten great mileage out of it vs them, particularly when they don't have Vial, but it still helps me shut down Standstill, which is the most important card to counter.
If Merfolk is expected to make a big showing at a particular event, I can just as easily drop the black splash for a red splash. Grim Lavamancer's out of the sideboard completely shut Merfolk down, and Firespout is easier to resolve than Wrath of God.
Oh, and I actually played ANT right after I played you, and crushed him in 4 games 2-0 and 2-0 (2 preboard games, 2 postboard games). I did get rather lucky, landing turn 2 CounterTop in 2 of the games, and drawing relevant cards in all of the games (countermagic). I feel very favored going against them preboard, what with Predict vs Mystical, CounterTop, Counterspell, and Force of Will. Postboard, after I bring in Meddling Mage, it just feels like my whole deck is aimed to beat them. He felt that way too, and when I apologized to him for him running into such a bad matchup, he laughed and said yea but your deck folds to Zoo.
So I made him load up Zoo. We went 1-1, and during game 3, when I was about to gain control over the gamestate finally (down to 7 life), I got a Player Lost. Not sure if it was him intentionally leaving or not, but I really wanted to play game 3 out.
Current sideboard plan vs ANT:
-3 Wrath of God
-1 Vindicate
+4 Meddling Mage
At this point, if you expect them to bring in Xantid Swarm or Dark Confidant, leave the Swords in the deck. I always leave Swords in for game 2 just incase. If you did lose game 1 but win game 2, and it goes to game 3, and you didn't see Xantid or Confidant...
You can drop StP for Relic. It rarely has a use as graveyard hate (removes Thresh for Cabal Ritual, they probably sided out IGG), but the draw a card aspect is more relevant than StP and they are still a 1cc spell for the Counterbalance curve.
The thing I love most about Counterbalance in this matchup is that it's rather strong even with blindflipping, since I run 23 lands, and 0cc is a great foil to ANT.
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3. Planeswalkers are nutberger good. I can't believe how much chaos you created with them.
Yea, both Elspeth and Jace 2.0 are very strong cards and I don't think people realize just how powerful they are when they discount control decks as viable in the metagame. The 2/2 split is perfect.
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4. Countertop's blind flips were as you stated sub optimal. With a top and fetches you get a lot more milage and it really shines in this deck as you really don't have much to play for a million turns anyway.
Yes, this is the case. Don't get me wrong, I've had blind flips work for me before to good effect, but most of the time, it's nothing reliable. My deck is more forgiving of not getting use out of Counterbalance right away, since I have other control spells to manage the gamestate until I finally get something to make Counterbalance useful. I have plenty of time, being a control deck, to finally get CounterTop assembled. Counterbalance turns topdecked Brainstorm's into Counterspells, and again... every card I do counter with Counterbalance is generating card advantage, which is how control decks tend to win most games.
Difference is, I'm generating a higher quality of card advantage with Counterbalance than a normal draw spell... if I cast Fact or Fiction, I may not get anything relevant. If I counter stuff with Counterbalance, I stop a relevant spell and they waste X amount of mana in the process, so in essence I'm gaining a tempo advantage too, where most draw spells (Predict included) tend to take away tempo at the expense of card advantage.
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5. Predict is better than I thought because it also works on an opponents blindflipped CB as long as they don't have a CMC 2 on top. What is the right number is a great question but you can do some really cool things, even more so if you used a little discard in your list. They hide the goodies with bs and then you take an educated guess what they hid on top with the predict, Ouch! In fact wether this deck becomes successful or not I think a SCD should be started on predict because it may be nuts in this meta as it can not only produce CA, it can disrupt tutors (mystical, enlightened) brainstorm, and ponder. (especially in response to discard), feed thresh/tarmogoyf and graveyard strategies in general.
Predict has been nothing short of amazing for me since I began testing it several weeks ago. It has a large amount of synergy with the rest of the deck, regardless of the metagame, so they are mainstays regardless.
However, you are right, and the Predict's have been doubling over as disruption in quite a few matchups.
The only reason this deck won't get successful is because no one is going to play it, or even find out about it. Otherwise, this deck is a complete animal.