Tournament Results and the Impact of Hulk Flash

So I decided to use the resources at hand both here and at the Source to compile tournament results from this past weekend (post-Hulk Flash), and the weekend before it's discovery to the entire Legacy-playing world. If anyone has any additional information they'd like to share, PM me or post it here. Anyway, it's a valuable tool for metagaming, in any case.

4-28/9
Kaddy’s (Top 8, 55 players): Belcher, Survival, Polar Express, UWB Landstill, Goblins, UGR Thresh, UGW Thresh, 43Land.dec

GPT Blue Bell (Top 8, 25 players): GR Belcher, CRET Belcher, B/W Disruption, BHWC Landstill, Boros Deck Wins, Rec-Sur, Goblins, Iggy Pop

GPT Saint Louis (Top 4, 9 players): Boros Deck Wins, BWHC Landstill, Stompy, Trinket Angels

Dragon’s Lair (Top 8, 32 players): Pox, Death and Taxes, UW Fish, Golden Grahams, White Weenie, Angel Stax, Three-Deuce, UG Madness

GPT Louisville (Top 8, 31 players): Golden Grahams, Golden Grahams, Landstill, B/W Disruption, Thresh, Goblins, Sligh, UG Loam

GPT Roanoke (Top 8, 15 players): RG Beats, Affinity, Iggy Pop, UWR Pyroclasm

GPT New York (Top 8, 23 players): UB Tog, UG Madness, Rec-Sur, Belcher, MWC, TES, GRO, Zoo

GPT Columbus (Top 8, 26 players): Goblins, B/W Disruption, Goblins, Rock, Rifter, Counter Sliver, Thresh, Affinity

5 Goblins (8.9%)
4 Belcher (7.1%)
4 Landstill
4 Thresh
3 Golden Grahams (5.4%)
3 Landstill
3 Survival
3 BW Disruption
2 UG Madness (3.6%)
2 Boros Deck Wins
2 Iggy Pop
2 Affinity
Polar Express (1.8%)
43 Land.dec
Stompy
Trinket Angels
Pox
Death and Taxes
Fish
White Weenie
Angel Stax
Three Deuce
Sligh
UG Loam
RG Beats
UWR Pyroclasm
UB Tog
MWC
TES
Gro
Zoo
Rock
Rifter
Counter Sliver

56/216 players

5-5/6
Meandeck Open (Top 8, 29 players): Hulk Flash, UWB Fish, 6 Unknown

Sandusky FoW (Top 3, 9 players): Hulk Flash, Hulk Flash, Iggy Pop

Austin Mox (Top 8, 16 players): Hulk Flash, Hulk Flash, Hulk Flash, UB Tog, Belcher, Belcher, Unknown, Survival

GPT Rochester (Top 8, 25 people): Aluren, Goblins, Belcher, 43Land.dec, Thresh, Hulk Flash, Sea Stompy, Belcher

GPT Richmond (Top 8, 25 playes): Loam, Belcher, Hulk Flash, Hulk Flash, Rock-ish, Red Death, Solidarity, UGw Thresh

GPT Pittsburgh (Top 8, 36 players): Hulk Flash, Counter Slivers, Goblins, Thresh, Landstill, Hulk Flash, Fish, Unknown

11 Hulk Flash (31.4%)
5 Belcher (14.3%)
3 Thresh (8.6%)
2 Fish (5.7%)
2 Goblins
Iggy Pop (2.9%)
UB Tog
Aluren
43 Land.dec
Loam
Red Death
Rock
Landstill
Solidarity
Sea Stompy
Counter Slivers
Survival
8 Unknown

35 (Known)/140 players

Wow, if those numbers are correct I think its safe to say that our greatest fear has been realized.

I think this thread may need to be moved to the LFM since it is basically a continuation of the discussion regarding GP Columbus. While at the same time addressing the current impact of Hulk Flash using statistical evidence.

Thanks for putting it together TCK. :smile:

43land.dec is called HOT COCOA

P.S. it doesnt even have 43 lands

PMs, please---frogboy

If you want it.

GPT - Durham NC 4/14/07 13 players

top 8

Angelstompy (2nd)
Iggypop (3rd)
UGr Thresh
Kobolds
B/W Disruption (4th)
UGw Thresh
RGbeats
Unknown (1st)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Happy Gilmore

Wow, if those numbers are correct I think its safe to say that our greatest fear has been realized.

I think this thread may need to be moved to the LFM since it is basically a continuation of the discussion regarding GP Columbus. While at the same time addressing the current impact of Hulk Flash using statistical evidence.

Thanks for putting it together TCK. :smile:

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This is a nice compilation of results, and a good Flores or BDM style week in review, and you are to be commended, TCH! Those are the only articles on Wizards' site I ever read, because the content is the only thing of value to me of all of their editorials.

However, to quote 9 player tournaments, and say our greatest fears are being realized, is a little unsubstantiated. Only one of the tournaments from this past weekend had more than 4-5 rounds, and any deck can make Top 8 in tournaments that small, especially if people are playing decks like 'Rock,' 43Land.dec, etc., which stand no chance against combo of any nature, let alone Belcher or HulkFlash. Once more people start putting Blue back in their decks I think things will simmer down a little bit. But it's great to see so much Legacy activity in general, and have results compiled in an easy to read format. You might also want to bold the winner of each tournament, and then (like BDM and Flores) you can track how many and the percentage of each archetype WON tournaments, and what percentage MADE TOP 8. Now that would be nice.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JACO

However, to quote 9 player tournaments, and say our greatest fears are being realized, is a little unsubstantiated.

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I agree here completely. Frankly, I didn't want to include such small tournaments, but I figured that given the nature of this study--that is, a two week slice of the meta--that I should use every bit of material I had available.

Also, I would like to state for the record that I didn't really want to make an argument one way or the other about the change. I just thought it relevant to take notice of just how much things changed.

Finally, I'll probably won't go back and bold the winning decks, because I don't think that's necessarily giving a more accurate representation of the meta. To take into consideration only winning decks has so much to do with luck on draws and pairings that I think it would be severely limiting. Also, if I had the relevant information, I'd probably want to do a more thorough analysis of all decks, average placement, etc... because that is most important for players IMO--knowing what decks to expect at the next tourney.

Thanks for the input, though. If any more numbers come up, I'll be sure to edit my post.

If these results stay about the same post-FS I think it's actually promising. While it got quite a few wins don't forget this was the first weekend and they are not yet hitting all of the hate they will be a month from now. How dominant was goblins before decks/sideboards and the entire format adapted? The format will change and it will have a new deck that defines it... but players will adapt.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by UrDraco

If you want it.

GPT - Durham NC 4/14/07 13 players

top 8

Angelstompy (2nd)
Iggypop (3rd)
UGr Thresh
Kobolds
B/W Disruption (4th)
UGw Thresh
RGbeats
Unknown (1st)

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What was the unknown?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by allaanon

How dominant was goblins before decks/sideboards and the entire format adapted? The format will change and it will have a new deck that defines it... but players will adapt.

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You are roughly the 4000th person to have made this incredibly flawed analogy. I don't have it in me to refute it again, but if you care to educate yourself you might do some reading on the subject.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by allaanon

If these results stay about the same post-FS I think it's actually promising. While it got quite a few wins don't forget this was the first weekend and they are not yet hitting all of the hate they will be a month from now. How dominant was goblins before decks/sideboards and the entire format adapted? The format will change and it will have a new deck that defines it... but players will adapt.

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I don't know if you noticed, but this hasn't been kept hush-hush. There was plenty of preparation for Hulk-Flash. You'll notice, for instance, that of the 35 decks we know that Top 8'd this weekend, only four didn't either,

1) Have turn 1 wins.

2) Play heavy back disruption, or

3) Play heavy blue disruption.

Two thirds of the decks were running Force of Will.

The format was prepared this weekend, and most of the lists were sub-optimal and raw. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg here. Most people still don't understand what Hulk-Flash is capable of.

Quote:

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1) Have turn 1 wins.

2) Play heavy back disruption, or

3) Play heavy blue disruption.

Two thirds of the decks were running Force of Will.

The format was prepared this weekend, and most of the lists were sub-optimal and raw. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg here. Most people still don't understand what Hulk-Flash is capable of.

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Right on man. Hulk Flash is going to get so much better post Future Sight. The addition of the Pacts makes the deck near unbeatable. I played Flash at GPT Rochester and went 2-3. The games I lost I either drew really bad or my oppenent sided in a ton of hate.

To be honest I was not looking at the total # of players when I posted. Regardless, the compiled information found here is extremely useful.

I've noticed a whole lot of new faces on The Source since Hulk Flash was errata'd. It is just coincidence? Or is Hulk Flash bringing these people here?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by URABAHN

I've noticed a whole lot of new faces on The Source since Hulk Flash was errata'd. It is just coincidence? Or is Hulk Flash bringing these people here?

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People are also more active. I'm seeing old faces that I thought slipped off the map.

To add to your 4/28-29 where you have no Flash there was a tournament in Ft. Worth, TX with more people than the Austin Mox tourney and the one guy playing Flash got in the top 8. I don't know how he finished though since I left early, but 43 Lands won.

Just because the combo has been all over most magic sites does not mean the kid your playing in the tournament has read it, has the cards or even has the cards to properly sideboard against it. Yet...

Quote:

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You are roughly the 4000th person to have made this incredibly flawed analogy. I don't have it in me to refute it again, but if you care to educate yourself you might do some reading on the subject.

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Weird, I haven't seen it once. This is the way the game goes. New cards come out, new decks are developed, old cards are errated or unbanned/unrestricted and occasionally a deck really takes over a format. Welcome to magic. It's been that way forever.

If people will stop whining and just learn to adapt and play better the format will take care of itself. The deck will get hated out or a better deck will take its place. I'm sorry your Tablet of Epityr deck isn't king right now.

ffs use the quote tags. I'm already blind and don't need tiny font reminding me---frogboy

Quote:

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Originally Posted by allaanon

Weird, I haven't seen it once. This is the way the game goes. New cards come out, new decks are developed, old cards are errated or unbanned/unrestricted and occasionally a deck really takes over a format. Welcome to magic. It's been that way forever.

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This argument is incredibly inane, and completely fails to face the reality of the situation. By your logic, there's no such thing as a card or combination of cards which is too powerful for any format. If a card forces every deck in the format to run one and only one color to be viable, is it too much? Or should they just suck it up and get used to a format where four of the colors don't exist? What about the same question, but with two colors?

Your inability to grasp the concept of relative power levels is laughable. If the DCI arbitrarily decided to unban Yawgmoth's Will in Legacy, should people just get used to it? This analogy is closer than you think, except that unbanned Yawgmoth's Will is arguably fairer and more balanced than Flash. With Yawgmoth's Will, you actually have to get cards to the graveyard to win. The same kind of hate which hurts Flash also hurts Yawgmoth's Will (Leyline of the Void, Extirpate, Force of Will, Daze, Meddling Mage, etc.) except that Yawgmoth's Will requires more setup, costs one more mana, and is sorcery speed.

So I ask you this: according to your logic, why should the DCI not unban Yawgmoth's Will in Legacy? After all, the format will adjust. Sure, it will be a format where only blue and black decks are viable and creatures are essentially irrelevant, but hey, that's what Flash already does anyway, right?

Read Nightmare's report if you think the format wasn't ready for it. He played Hulk at Rochester against Goblins playing MAINDECK Leyline. Belcher also had it in the board, which is not something they normally have.

I have to agree with Zilla on this. If Flash stays legal in Legacy it going to come down to either you play Flash/Hulk or play a deck that you hope to beat it with. After Future Sight becomes legal this deck just gets dumb.

Also if this stays leagl you can pretty much say kiss Aggro, and heavy creature Aggro-control (Survival) good-bye. Since they do not have the tools to combat the speed and the easy that this deck can win with.

@Leyline:Mr. Nightmare also said that Leyline wasn't that much trouble. If an aggro deck does run it in the board, the Flash player just bounces and then wins. He did say that Stifle was the real pain, but we are also talking pre-Future Sight, where this deck gains a perfect complement to FOW in Pact of Negation and a better tutor for Hulk/ESG in Summoners Pact.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GodzillA

Your inability to grasp the concept of relative power levels is laughable. If the DCI arbitrarily decided to unban Yawgmoth's Will in Legacy, should people just get used to it? This analogy is closer than you think, except that unbanned Yawgmoth's Will is arguably fairer and more balanced than Flash.

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I'll go even further. There's no "arguably fairer" about it.

Flash is far more distorting than Yawgmoth's Will. Period. It's debatably stronger than Tinker or Oath of Druids or Hermit Druid or most of the B/R list, actually. It's even debatably stronger than Demonic Tutor or Time Walk or Channel, as it completely wins the game for the same cost at instant speed. There really aren't but like, fifteen cards on the banned and restricted list that would wreak more havoc if legalized. This would include the Lotus, Moxen, top tier mana accelerants, Ancestral Recall, Strip Mine, and possibly a few others.

In fact, I think the legalization of Chaos Orb might cause less impact than Flash. After all, it's the same amount of mana, doesn't win you the game, isn't an instant, doesn't pitch to Force of Will, and can sometimes miss entirely. In fact, I hereby vote we unban Chaos Orb in order to let Stax have a shot in the Flash-filled format.