I'll admit that I have little experience with Thresh variants, but Mantis has a point. With Brainstorm and Ponder restricted, Vintage players have even less answers than Legacy players for a drawn "dead" Darksteel Colossus (Progenitus). Yet Tinker -> DSC remains a huge game-swinging play in all the top decks packing it. Saying that Daze (or any counterspell) effectively nullifies/2-for-1s this strategy is foolish.
But it's not entirely a fair comparison. Tinker gets more than just DSC/Sundering Titan/Inkwell Leviathan/Ebony Rhino/Random large robot; Tinker gets the game-ending Voltaic Key/Time Vault, or the Grindstone you need, or the Crucible to lock your opponent out, all at the sacrifice of a mox or a Mana Crypt that's killing you. Natural Order doesn't have this quality about it. I'm not sure you will want to ever sac a Goyf to get...another Goyf, or a Goose or Bear. Your main target is the big 10/10 Globetrotter and you sac one of your main dudes for it. Dryad Arbor simplifies this a bit, but I'm not sure I agree with that play.
My point is that I think a lot of Legacy players overlook the impact a risky Natural Order can have because they aren't used to that kind of play in the format. It's not as nice as Tinker -> DSC of course, but if you have a counter to back it up (as players who play Tinker should), the "oops I win" factor is huge. I'll admit that I really don't know if Natural Order -> Progenitus is a good fit in this deck or other Thresh variants or any other Legacy deck, but it's not fair to say "Daze lol gg" and just dismiss it.
1. There's no denying that. It is slow and clunky. But I don't think anyone expects or even wants to try to get NO -> Prog online as soon as possible.
2. Agreed, which is why it shouldn't be crammed into every deck with Forests. This is very different than Tinker, where Tinker+DSC goes in any deck playing Mana Drain, and decks that don't play Drain (lol).
3. Agreed, but that's true for almost any card other than a sweeper. If your opponent is in that position - in any format - they deserve to win.
1. Yep, Tinker is busted, and Vintage is full of cheap artifact acceleration. But I don't think that's what makes Tinker so good...(more later)
2. The bounce spells and removal are in the decks largely because of Tinker and are usually very tutorable. Every deck needs an answer to the Big Guy. Bounce and removal, short of Wrath effects, doesn't do anything to Progenitus.
3. First turn Tinker can be a strong play, but I don't like it and I don't think it's as good as it looks. It either wins the game or it loses (granted it just wrecks some decks). A bounce spell screws you, as does a FoW. Tinker's real strength, I think, is (1) when it's used as a plan B and (2) because of the large number of stupidly powerful artifacts available as a target in Vintage (which is where Natural Order fails to compare). "Tezzeret resolve? No? Damn. What about Demonic Tutor? Damn. Now that you're out of counters...what about Tinker?" I know, unlikely..right? My point is that Natural Order doesn't have to be an explosive turn 1-4 play to win.
I really don't know if NO -> Prog is good yet, but I do think it's a comparable play to Tinker -> DSC, but not necessarily that Natural Order is comparable to Tinker. So I see NO as a very niche card which nobody has probably found its best use yet.