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The deck is cosmetically similar to Lands, but it plays much closer to Jund or Maverick.
A couple years ago people would have disagreed that they are even similar.
The Loam-Lands comparison is a bit like saying a Swiss Army knife is just a worse screwdriver.
http://itsjulian.com/too-much-inform...ies-frankfurt/
From here: http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...yed-at-MKM-Fra
Really good breakdown, and shows how 4c loam is positioned against various decks in the meta. It's one tournament, but still a good amount of data for the 13 players on this deck in a 436 person event.
To expand on these remarks a little, I think it's interesting to consider the perspective of the player looking at the deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by apocolyps6
A Lands player, or an 'older' (for lack of a better term) legacy player can identify the cosmetic similarities to lands, and may view the strategy as diluted.
Jund and Maverick players may see the similarities to their own deck alongside the anti-blue hate pieces, and therefore may be more attracted to the strategy over Lands players.
I've noticed a trend that the major proponents of Loam tend to be either players with quite a good amount of experience with it, or players that play the deck pretty much exclusively. It seems that the flexibility of the strategy isn't an aspect that is largely appreciated, and I am not sure if Matthias is a big legacy player or not - but I don't believe this is a huge failing on his part. Don't get me wrong, SCG commentary of legacy when it's not Ceddy P and P sully leaves much to be desired, but when a deck isn't fully appreciated by even the community of it's own format, it's bound to be misrepresented in coverage.
Players in my shop (and others I've run into) seem to have trouble telling the difference between Turbo Depths, RG Lands, and Jund Depths. Some even roll 4c Loam into the 'Lands' archetype, so fairly easy to see that point. Now it seems all Lands decks play both Sylvan Scrying, Entomb, and Life from the Loam.
But, for a commentator, he should know the difference between at least RG Lands and 4C Loam.
I think you mean Punishing Abzan. :tongue:Quote:
Originally Posted by Claymore
#triggeredQuote:
Originally Posted by CptHaddock
Since Miracles is gone, is Gaddock Teeg still worth it in the main board only for the Storm/Belcher matchup? Or are there an other matchups where he shines?
I've won more than one game where storm duresses me and I happened to have the teeg in hand. Also very useful vs moon stompy, most of their scary things cost 4.Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowfire
Sneak Attack, Natural Order, GSZ, Jace (Czech midrange), Invigorate. I think he's okay still. Not amazing though.
What could he be replaced by? Scavenging Ooze or a firm DRS slot would be my first two options. Tarmogoyf could be considered as an additional beater.
Jeff Hoogland streaming some Wish Loam today:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAwHHBUXsAANcRn.jpg:large
Looks pretty decent. This is based on his old Devastating Dreams lists that kickstarted this archetype.
Burning Wish does seem nice against the meta that packs a ton of Surgicals now.
Wow that's quite the flashback.. needs some seismic assaults for complete nostalgia
Isn't Burning Wish a little slow in the current meta?
Resilience to Surgical Extraction is definitely cool, but I've always thought that one of the strengths of the deck is that it doesn't completely fold to these effects (KOTR is definitely backbreaking but that isn't usually feasible). IMO Burning Wish just adds an extra hoop to jump through to try to achieve a flexibility the deck doesn't really need anymore, density and diversity of threats is both resilient and doesn't rely on resolving a 2 mana spell that doesn't impact the game state - you're also diluting the SB a bunch by including wish cards.Quote:
Originally Posted by rabidw0lf
Yeah, IMO Burning Wish is not really where you wanna be. I might have been the last person to abandon the card, but we simply have better things to be doing.
Think of it as a virtual 4drop. The deck can't afford any 4drops now, so I don't see it changing any time soon.
TBH towards the end most of what I was doing with the wishes was baiting counterspells.
That list has actually devolved since he last played it (back to monestary, goyf, etc)
If people are looking for more of a linear "answers deck" that might actually be up their ally tho
Well, recent results show, that Miracles isn't gone. Chalice on 1 + Gaddock Teeg is hard lock for the new Miracles lists:Quote:
Originally Posted by Snowfire
https://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetyp...ur-37971#paper
I've been toying around with a new list that looks a lot more like apocalyps6's than Kronberger's. It's more proactive and eschews Liliana and Bob for more on-board power and consistency. I'm pretty happy so far as it seems that my combo and Delver matchups haven't gotten worse. Might this actually be reasonable?
4 Mox Diamond
3 Wasteland
3 Verdant Catacombs
3 Grove of the Burnwillows
2 Windswept Heath
1 Forest
1 Swamp (this might be better as a creature-land or Plains)
1 Bayou
1 Savannah
1 Scrubland
1 Plateau
1 Taiga
1 Badlands
1 Dryad Arbor
1 City of Traitors
1 Maze of Ith
1 Thespian's Stage
1 Cabal Pit (better as Barbarian Ring?)
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Dark Depths
4 Chalice of the Void
3 Green Sun's Zenith
3 Punishing Fire
3 Abrupt Decay
2 Sylvan Library
2 Life from the Loam
2 Toxic Deluge (maybe 1/1 with Fiery Justice, but killing TNN seems better than going 1-for-1 with Angler, Smasher, and Tombstalker)
1 Crucible of Worlds
4 Knight of the Reliquary
2 Tireless Tracker
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Qasali Pridemage
Sideboard
4 Leyline of the Void
3 Thoughtseize
2 Swords to Plowshares
2 Sphere of Resistance
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Ancient Tomb
1 Kjeldoran Outpost
The SB Outpost might be better as a Garruk, but with the more controlling decks moving toward the actual card Counterspell I like 4 drops a lot less than an endless stream of uncounterable tokens. I could also see cutting the MD Crucible and Depths for some combination of a fourth GSZ, third Tireless Tracker, Thalia, and Tarmogoyf. Stage has been good enough on its own so far that Depths doesn't seem necessary (but is mostly free with Stage).
Now that miracles is gone, we can move to the original Jund colors (better manabase),
I tried the olds lists with Seimic Assault + the new Shadow of the grave and is game ending (also as Jeff used, devastating dreams for clearing tokens).
Instead of punishing fires: barbarian ring + loam could be enough and avoid color protections. Turning the deck more red, makes the deck less vulnerable to blood moons, in fact helps casting seismic assaults.
Miracles is not gone. I just played against the Portent Miracles. Terminus is still a real threat. Lili was a house here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sergi
Id love to play Seismic again except RRR is asking alot to go with BB and GB and dies to Decay which is still in basically every deck that isn't combo.
As stated before, Miracles is not gone. Regardless of that however, I can't imagine dropping Knight of the Reliquary to be defensible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sergi
Imo the only thing that you get by moving back to the original Jund colors is a slightly more stable manabase and slightly improved fair matchups. Losing the hatebears is a BIG deal, it's no longer 2012 and almost every popular combo deck has gotten a big boost along the way. I guess you're kind of priced into running more discard or maybe a playset of thorns however there is nothing lost from trying.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sergi
Jeff's list looks really threat light...
The Seismic Assault thing feels like pure nostalgia. We simply are not living in a world where decks can be built around decayable engines. All power to you if you want to prove that wrong, but decks like stiflenaught have been struggling with this for years now.
About btm10's list, there is a lot going on here.
I've recently been kind of meh on bob, so I'm tempted to try some of this out. In particular I've thought about Tracker and sol lands before, but not together. I'm gonna try something like this:
Land (28)
2x Bayou
1x Cabal Pit
1x Dark Depths
1x Dryad Arbor
1x Forest
2x Grove of the Burnwillows
1x Horizon Canopy
1x Karakas
1x Plateau
1x Savannah
1x Scrubland
1x Taiga
1x Thespian's Stage
2x Tranquil Thicket
2x Ancient Tomb
1x Verdant Catacombs
4x Wasteland
4x Windswept Heath
Creature (11)
3x Tireless Tracker
1x Deathrite Shaman
1x Gaddock Teeg
4x Knight of the Reliquary
1x Qasali Pridemage
1x Scavenging Ooze
Instant (6)
3x Abrupt Decay
3x Punishing Fire
Sorcery (5)
3x Green Sun's Zenith
2x Life from the Loam
Artifact (8)
4x Chalice of the Void
4x Mox Diamond
Enchantment (2)
2x Sylvan Library
I don't like cutting the 2nd catacomb for a colorless land, but I'm not sure what to cut instead. I've wanted to play 1-2 tomb to get better chalices and zeniths, but with only 7 cards that fully benefit the tomb did not do enough. It also makes value chokes out of the board quite good. At this point, we are kind of dipping into Sylvan Plug territory, and all the clunkiness that comes with playing sol lands with decays.
I'd love to see how the list performs. Especially how the 0 cycle lands are for you.
Hey folks,
I don’t post much anymore, but I’ve been playing 4 Color Loam on and off since last summer, and it’s what I’ll (in all likelihood) be taking to Grand Prix Vegas. There was a trial at my LGS today, and I played this deck to a 4th place finish out of 17 players, going 3-1-1 prior to top 8, where I was knocked out in the semifinals. I thought I’d post a tournament report so I could get some opinions, pointers, et cetera from you fine people.
First off, here’s the list that I played:
Creatures:
4 Knight of the Reliquary
4 Dark Confidant
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Deathrite Shaman
1 Dryad Arbor
Artifacts:
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Mox Diamond
Enchantments:
1 Sylvan Library
Planeswalkers:
3 Liliana of the Veil
Sorceries:
2 Life from the Loam
2 Green Sun’s Zenith
1 Collective Brutality
Instants:
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Punishing Fire
Lands:
4 Wasteland
3 Grove of the Burnwillows
1 Karakas
1 Maze of Ith
1 Cabal Pit
1 Barren Moor
1 Tranquil Thicket
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Windswept Heath
2 Bayou
1 Scrubland
1 Savannah
1 Taiga
1 Badlands
1 Forest
Sideboard:
3 Leyline of the Void
2 Containment Priest
2 Ethersworn Canonist
2 Golgari Charm
2 Swords to Plowshares
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Toxic Deluge
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Collective Brutality
The way I figure it, there’s about 3 flex slots in the main, 2 of which can be filled with spells, and one that’s a land. The configuration I used was 1 Deathrite Shaman, 1 Collective Brutality, and 1 Cabal Pit. I played a similar set up at Knightware’s last GPT (-1 Cabal Pit, +1 Swamp), but was unimpressed by the extra basic, which I included as a hedge against Blood Moon decks. I don’t necessarily like the dissonance between DRS and Chalice, but the littlest planeswalker is a great hedge against hands without Diamond, and I always regret cutting him. Pit wasn’t significantly better than Swamp or an extra cycling land, but it’s never lost me a game and is occasionally quite useful. Brutality is a fantastic catch all, thus the inclusion. Anyhoo, on to the tournament. Last names won’t be included for privacy reasons. All my opponents were humble in victory, gracious in defeat, and made every effort to keep the matches from becoming too serious. The particulars of my sideboarding plans I can’t quite remember, though on the whole they’re accurate. Cards that I’m unsure will be marked with a ‘*’.
Round 1: Sean playing Black-Red Reanimator
Game 1: Win
He kept a relatively slow, disruptive hand, and I derped my way into a Liliana of the Veil. It was only afterwards that I realized I jammed it straight into a Chancellor of the Annex trigger, but both of us forgot about it. I’d like to say that I mindtricked my way through a proverbial Chalice trigger, but it was simply a misplay on my part that happened to work out. If I’m not remembering the rules concerning triggers correctly, please let me know.
Sideboard:
-3 Abrupt Decay, -3 Punishing Fire, -2 Life from the Loam, -1 Sylvan Library
+3 Leyline of the Void, +2 Containment Priest, +2 Swords to Plowshares, +1 Toxic Deluge, +1 Collective Brutality
Game 2: Win
I don’t remember if I mulled at all to search for my Leyline of the Void, but I know I had one in play. That, in conjunction with other disruption sealed the game.
Round 2: Fernando playing Grixis Delver
Game 1: Loss
I kept a solid, but slow hand that was made slower by playing around Stifle, which it turns out he wasn’t playing. I should have pushed more of a board presence, but failed to do so until turn 3 or 4. His turn 3 and turn 4 True-Name Nemesis mopped up quickly after that.
Sideboard:
-1 Gaddock Teeg, -1 Sylvan Library, -1 Green Sun’s Zenith*, -1 Karakas*
+2 Golgari Charm, +1 Toxic Deluge, +1 Collective Brutality
Game 2: Win
I don’t remember the particulars of this game, but it went long, and I never actually presented a win condition. Rather, between Chalice, Lili, and Loam+Wasteland+Pit+Thicket, he was locked out, and scooped to try and win a quick game 3 against me.
Game 3: Draw
The details are lost on me, once again. We played as quick as we could, he disrupted me to no end with Probe+Therapy, but I got a lock going. Sadly, I couldn’t close the game out: he had therapy’ed away 2 of my Knights, so I had no pressure.
Round 3: Cliff playing Big Red
Game 1: Loss
Blood Moon got there, despite my best attempts to the contrary.
Sideboard:
-4 Chalice of the Void, -2 Life from the Loam, -1 Karakas
+2 Golgari Charm, +2 Swords to Plowshares, +1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance, +1 Toxic Deluge, +1 Reclamation Sage
Game 2: Loss
I fought a little harder this time, but the game stalled out due to Ensnaring Bridge, which gave him time to amass a considerable array of threats, disruption, etc. Strong start but he closed it out handily.
Round 4: Ted playing Shardless BUG
Game 1: Loss
His list was a little unorthodox in that he runs a playset of TNN, which makes me (a Maverick player at heart) pretty anxious. I tried to land a Lili, but he got there without too much trouble from me along the way.
Sideboard:
-4 Chalice of the Void, -1 Gaddock Teeg, -1 Green Sun’s Zenith*, -1 Karakas
+2 Golgari Charm, +2 Swords to Plowshares, +1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance, +1 Toxic Deluge, +1 Collective Brutality
Game 2: Win
I can’t quite remember how I got there in game 2, but I’m pretty sure it involved Dark Confidant resolving and running for some turns before getting nixed. He stalled the board out with a TNN, but Deluge for X=2 swept away all his blockers and let Knight take the game.
Game 3: Win
He fetched basics to play around my Wastelands, but unfortunately his deck decided to hand him duals and Wastelands, so the Loam engine effectively sealed the game away.
Round 5: Jeremy playing Burn
Game 1: Loss
I kept a passable, if not great hand, but it didn’t get there. Chalice showed up late to the game and my removal hardly mattered.
Sideboard:
-4 Dark Confidant, -1 Sylvan Library, -1 Karakas*
+2 Ethersworn Canonist, +2 Golgari Charm, +1 Reclamation Sage, +1 Collective Brutality
Game 2: Win
All the possible hate showed up. Chalice did great work, as did Rec Sage. Collective Brutality is a house in this match-up.
Game 3: Win
This game was somewhat one sided, as he had to mull to 4, and I had a hand chock full of spells, and was able to contain his few attempts at breaking out.
Top 8
I know, a Top 8 out of 17 players might not sound like much, but it’s huge for my area. Here’s hoping that we recruit more players to the local legacy scene.
Quarter Finals: Jacob playing Belcher
Game 1: Win
At this point, we all know what each other is playing, so I snap keep a hand with Chalice even though I don’t have a Mox. He was on the play, but didn’t realize I play Chalice, so he just passed the turn to me with rocks in hand. Later he said he wanted to keep them for Storm count. My Chalice for 0 does solid work, as does my turn one Confidant off of a Diamond, but he’s able to Empty for 10 goblin tokens and passes. I make a Knight and pass back, taking 8 and losing my Confidant. Next turn Knight gets a Grove for P. Fire (which I can cast twice in said turn) and I take 5, the turn after I get a Lili, block with Knight, and find a Maze, and eventually stabilize at 4. From there I take over.
Sideboard:
-3 Abrupt Decay, -3 Punishing Fire, -2 Life from the Loam
+2 Ethersworn Canonist, +2 Golgari Charm, +1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance (I’m aware this was loose), +1 Toxic Deluge, +1 Reclamation Sage, +1 Collective Brutality
Game 2: Win
He leads with a Land Grant and a few rocks, alongside a Probe. I cast a Chalice turn 1 for 0, and pass back hoping he doesn’t have it. He doesn’t, but turn 2 I spend some time debating whether I should cast Teeg or Chalice for 1 (my line of reasoning that while Teeg is immediately better, I couldn’t cast Chalice at 1 if I did play him). I decide on Teeg, which was the right choice. I took care not to run my Teeg (or later, Dark Confidant) into his Tinder Wall, but almost did. He looked a bit sad after I passed the turn without attacking. Eventually I get rid of his Tinder Walls with Lili, and start clocking him.
Semi Finals: Kevin playing Black Red Reanimator
Game 1: Loss
He leads with Chancellor reveal into turn 1 reanimated Chancellor. I try to dig to a Maze, a Lili, something before he kills me, but Chancellor gets there.
Sideboard:
-3 Abrupt Decay, -3 Punishing Fire, -2 Life from the Loam, -1 Sylvan Library
+3 Leyline of the Void, +2 Containment Priest, +2 Swords to Plowshares, +1 Toxic Deluge, +1 Collective Brutality
Game 2: Win
Leyline turn 0 was backed up by Lili, Maze, and other goodstuff.
Game 3: Loss
I kept a 6 card hand that had a bit of play to it, but I should have just mulled. Chancellor into Grave Titan made me a sad panda, and though the game went long, once the Titan hit the field it was a foregone conclusion.
Overall Record: 5-1-1
On the whole, I like how the deck felt. The main ran super smooth and only gave me problems a few times. The sideboard might need a bit of work; I think I want to go up to 4 Leyline, but don’t know what to cut. Comments are appreciated, especially as I may have missed something.
Yes, sure it's nostalgia, but well, Seismic Assault is as decayable as knight with the addition that does not has summon sickness or being weak to swords. Just want to share some ideas if the meta is filling with blood moons.Quote:
Originally Posted by apocolyps6
I did use the word engine for a reason. This isn't just the "dies to doomblade argument" as the Seismic Assault deck is much worse without Assault. You end up having to play more GY dependent cards and cycle lands than you would otherwise want.
There are less drastic changes that can be made if you are drowning in moons.
I'm glad that someone is interested in this approach.Quote:
Originally Posted by apocolyps6
While I'm only a handful of matches into my own testing (~15 over the past week), I have been able to come to some reasonable preliminary conclusions. The most important is that the cycling lands are unnecessary in this build, with tracker providing so much incidental card draw. If you're on 3 Trackers and 2 Sol Lands, you'll see quickly that turn 1 Tracker hands lead to disgusting turn 2s and 3s with regularity. Not only does that lead directly into plays like turn 2 GSZ for Knight or turn 2 Loam + Scooze/Library, even mediocre hands that 'just' curve Tracker into a fetchland mean you're swinging for 5 and drawing two cards on turn 2. The fetchland interaction alone means that Tracker has to be killed more quickly than Bob since letting you untap with it is often a 3-for-1. I'm running the City main with a Tomb in the board because I found that I was taking too much damage from Tomb over a long game, especially when Deluge matters, but mana stability is much more important than life total against combo, hence the SB Tomb. The Sol Land+ Decay issue has come up a few times, but it's never been so detrimental that I've lost a game because of it. I'd love to find another removal spell that's slightly easier to cast, so maybe something like MD Collective Brutality would be good.
EDIT:
I'm somewhat surprised to see al of your Decays come out against BR Reanimator since Decay is an answer to Animate Dead (you can kill it with the trigger on the stack and nothing happens) as well as a way to deal with Pithing Needles and Blood Moons out of their sideboard, and I like the fourth Leyline a lot. I also trim 1-2 Chalices against Grixis on the play and cut them completely on the draw since supplemental removal in the form of Swords is more important than the possibility of locking them out. Thalia and Sphere effects are also excellent there in my experience.Quote:
Originally Posted by bakofried
@btm10:
Regarding Decays and Reanimator, I don't know how I feel about that. I never feel like I have enough control over the Reanimator MU to warrant playing a step ahead of their counter-hate. If there's something else you think I should cut to keep AD in (even as a 1 or a 2 of in that MU), I'm all ears, but there's not a whole lot of room, especially if I go up to 4 Leyline. Regarding Grixis Delver, I understand boarding out Chalices on the draw, but I don't think I've ever lost a game to them with Chalice on the field that didn't involve a TNN or a Tombstalker. And I'd certainly rather have Chalice over sphere effects, as our removal is more expensive than their threats. Throwing spheres into the mix wouldn't alleviate that, IMO. If others are on a similar game plan I'd be glad to hear it.
I usually keep in 1 decay and board out a teeg, but other than that my boarding is the exact same as yours. Baring some random cards like Reverent Silence he's not really stopping anything. I keep 1 decay in as a hedge but most of the times the games are usually over by turn 1 or 2. I don't think it's worth keeping in the full set since you're hitting exactly 4 cards with it and keeping it in your hand when your opponent plays a ton of discard is very hard.Quote:
Originally Posted by bakofried
In hindsight I may have boarded out Teeg in that MU, keeping in Library.
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Got my byes for Vegas this weekend. And now
Got these gems in the mail today. Now i need to find a 3rd one to replace the FTV one.
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Za...=w1299-h974-no
Proposed changes to my last list: cut Sylvan Library altogether, move the 2nd copy of Collective Brutality from the side to the main, and up the number of Leylines from 3 to 4. Thoughts?
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I do not play the deck often so take this with a grain of salt but I am a big advocate for Sylvan Library. With Knight, fetches, and GSZ it does let us see a lot of cards if it is in play. Also drawing extra cards with life instead of with Loam/ mana could help turn the tide if you need a land/ removal spell.Quote:
Originally Posted by bakofried
I agree, I wouldn't go down to 0 Sylvans unless you are running something like 2 chains in your maindeck. Sylvan is such a game changer in the midrange/control matchups, just having the ability to be up cards/find what you are looking for in those matchups is so great in a nonblue deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by B is for Big Job
I also wouldn't go up to 4 leylines.
My issue with Library lately is that in many of the midrange match ups these days, I'm contending with Leovold. While this deck has plenty of answers for Leovold, it's handy to be able to ignore half of his text. Brutality is a card I'm always glad to see, especially in our bad match ups.Quote:
Originally Posted by CptHaddock
Why not 4 Leyline?
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I've been liking brutalities as well, I can't decide if I want 2 in the main or a split between deluge and brutality. I don't think you should be that worried about Leovold, it's been very rare that I can't answer him at the same time I have a library active. At the very worst, you're not digging for a turn or two. As for the 4 leylines I don't think the increased % of having it in your opening 7 or substantially mulligans is worth for having dedicated yard hate. I would rather have other utility cards in the spot but I have lost my fair share of games because of stubbornly refusing to mulligan down to leyline so I don't really know.Quote:
Originally Posted by bakofried
Edit: With the 2 containment priests in your sideboard I certainly would not play 4 leylines.
I think leylines are a 4 or 0 type of card. They are very good in the opener, and very bad at any other time. When I consider playing a leyline, it's because of the power it offers in the opening hand and I assume I will not cast the card. From there, it seems obvious that it's 4 or 0 to maximize the chance of getting one in the opener.Quote:
Originally Posted by CptHaddock
If I can't find room for 4, then I play other cards. Containment, Spellbomb, Tormod's, Grafdigger's, etc.
3 leylines also gives reasonable percentages to mull into one. If you go down to 2 it is pretty clear something else would be better there. Obv 4 leyline is better than 3, but leyline is just about the best vanilla gy hate we can play. Everything else comes with a harsher downside.
I'm wondering if the meta allows for something like a cage instead if leyline. The fact that we can draw if off of Bob/library makes it better as a 2-of of we don't need it in the opening hand. Even playing a mix of surgical/cage/priest is better if we don't expect decks like Lands.
Given that we can Bob/library/zenith into scooze with some consistency something like nihil spellbomb or crypt isn't insane either.
Gonna have you all a rest from my Library fanboying but just about nothing can convince me to play less than 2. these days I've been front-loading the life payments a bit more against bug
4 gives about 33% in the opener and 3 about 28%.
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I'm not a hypergeometric mathemagician, but here's what I've found.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobmans
With 4 copies in 60, there is a 33% chance you get EXACTLY 1 in the opener.
40% chance for 1 OR MORE.
- - -
Leylines are an all-or-nothing card. Sometimes they are an uncounterable, un-Decayable hammer that start working before their first upkeep... and sometimes they are an uncastable brick you rip off the top of the deck. Even if it's mathematically efficient to go for 3 (which is debatable), I feel like 3 is a "half-assed all-in."
I'm not either, but i wrote a tool to do these calculations for me a while ago. If you have 4 leylines and are willing to go to 5 (IMO if you board in Leyline you HAVE to be willing to mull to it for the reasons already stated.) You have a 72.7% chance of seeing one. With only 3 leylines that drops to 61.9%. That's a bit over 10%. Now the question is, how much is a sideboard card worth? We are already favored without those 10% and there is a chance that that those 10% are never needed.
To look at it from another perspective, lets say we have exactly 3 slots for the problem. What do we play instead?
Wait....why are we favored? The match ups I bring Leyline in for we are not favored, certainly not enough to warrant cutting my chances of seeing a game changer by 10%.
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