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I agree. I didnt play against any combo and for that reason i think i want my hymns in the board. I like that i can remove their hand so quickly but when they go t1 mom into t2 stoneforge/ thalia/goyf, hymn just doesnt cut it, id rather eot kil the dude then cast a shardlessQuote:
Originally Posted by btm10
I've been learning more and more that using your removal correctly is probably the reason some people are having problems with not having enough of it. Do what you want, but I feel like more reps will help you learn how the deck truly wants to be played. Anyway, no real report as I don't do well recalling and my notes are never adequate as I focus on the game and my lines of play before taking notes. Here is the skinny on the games I played.
LIST LOCATED AT BOTTOM OF POST.
RD 1: Richard, on 4C Delver
Game 1: First game of the day, I play too greedy. I have 2x Goyf and a clique, he an unflipped Delver. I swing will all for a sure victory the next turn, but leave myself open to delver plus bolt. He flips delver with a ponder and ponders into bolt. My bad. Grind it out, not quick beats. I'm learning all the time.
game 2: I hymned away his second land drop, he plays 2x delver turn 1/2, I deal with his board and waste his land. A turn or 2 later Goyf gets the scoop.
Game 3: I mull to 5 and just can't get there. I did well even with the mull, but still lost.
0-1
RD 2: Ethan, on Miracles
Game 1: I get there with a Creeping Tar Pit for 18 damage, Strix for the last 2 after a Back to Basics shuts off the manland.
Game 2: Early Shardless gets a few points, then Clique, then I clean up the match with Tar Pit. This card is awesome against Miracles, especially when paired up with a Library.
1-1
RD 3: Alex, on Storm
Game 1: He combos off fairly early. A Decay on LED and a hymn slowed him down, but I didn't have enough disruption for it to matter.
Game 2: A lot of work from DRS and Null Rod.
Game 3: An active Force and some hand disruption with a motley crew of beats gets there through multiple EtW combo turns. First one for 12 goblins gets answered by a Golgari Charm as the first card flipped to a blind cascade and then drew a Maelstrom Pulse, which answered the next EtW a few turns later.
2-1
RD 4: Matt, aggro Eldrazi (colorless) This is a teammate. He had played two other BUG lists previously and had beat them both
Game 1: I deal with his little guys while getting a wasteland heavy draw if I recall correctly and keep him off mana.
Game 2: His Chalices are irrelevant and he has no pressure other than a TKS, which I kill with Pulse and then Goyfs win the game in quick fashion.
3-1
RD 5: Andrew, Maverick(?) A sourcer, forgot his handle, but if you read this, Andrew, would you lmk if you were on maverick or what?
Game 1: Thoughtseize rips one of two Knights, but that's all I can remember other than I win this one.
Game 2: I lose in several turns, Maze of Ith helping him along the way.
Game 3: I win, but I don't remember many details other than it seems goyf was the main threat.
4-1
RD 6: Leonard with Merfolk
Game 1: I get multiple goyfs and deal with true names via a timely Deluge.
Game 2: I deal with a lord with a Disfigure, a manland with a Waste, and Null Rod for Vial, which he had a double vial draw. He gets down 3 TNN in this game, 2 of which I deal with via Golgari Charm, the last I used a Deluge. Finish it off with 2 goyfs again.
I'm 3rd seed with 15 points, into the Top 8.
Semi's against Thomas (Admiral Arzar here on the Source), he's on Sylvan Plug, but with Goyfs. Turns out, its better. No kidding...
Game 1: He wins, but I don't remember much other than I believe a billion Zeniths into a billion Goyfs.
Game 2: I wasn't sure what he was on, as it was a strange hand and I saw very little besides a choke and GSZ and Goyf, and I think a Mox Diamond. I played around Choke here and in game 3 with 3 basics fetched early, not popping fetches and using DRS for Blue often. I get goyfs going, he doesn't draw lands and I think I wastelanded also. I answer his goyfs and Sylvan Library and win.
Game 3: Goyfs, played around Choke some more. Don't remember much, just that it was good games and a lot of fun. Thanks!
Semi's: Tyler, Miracles
He played 3 Jace, no Entreats, and Mentor, although I'm unsure how many of them, but it was a really strong list, and he played well.
G1: He resolves a turn 4 Jace. This is unexpected as I have a full grip and didn't play aggressively, gave no information that I didn't have a counter or anything, so I suspected immediately that he played 3 total, but alas, it was too good. I never got rid of it and he locked the board up with CounterTop and a couple of StP, 1 Counterspell, and 2(?) Snapcasters later I scoop as the writing is on the wall and I wanted to not get too downhearted by the situation. Not getting tilted is important.
G2: I win by discard and threats followed by an abrupt decay and a FoW on a Jace.
G3: I turn 1 DRS, counter his turn 1 Top, turn 2 I Shardless into Surgical and grab the top. He gets Jace, I can't deal with it right away and it punishes me by setting up an Entreat that I couldn't combat in a timely manner.
That was it, I don't necessarily remember how I boarded, but I'll leave you with the list.
4 DRS
4 Goyf
2 Strix
1 Clique
4 Shardless
3 Decay
l2 TSeize
2 Hymn
4 FoW
2 Liliana
1 Deluge
1 Library
3 Vision
4 BS
1 Pulse
4 Delta
4 Verdant
1 Misty
3 Wasteland
1 CTP
2 Swamp
1 Forest
3 Sea
2 Bayou
1 Trop
SB:
2 Surgical
1 Jace
1 Ravenous Trap
1 Deluge
1 Decay
1 TSeize
1 Charm
1 Library
1 Rod
1 Disfigure
1 Needle
1 Cage
1 Spellbomb
1 NoSB
The only thing I would like to change is NoSB being either another Charm or a first Engineered Plague. I'm leaning towards Plague in my local meta, but in a larger one maybe a second Charm is good, I really loved it all day.
-ABC
Sorry but this is just a losing play with this Hand, you are left with nothing after the force.Quote:
Originally Posted by James_Nguyen
@Bee you board Surgicals against Miracles? I don't know about that. What do you take out for it and what cards do you aim for? StP? Terminus?
Well, it's better than some of the things I can play, and I do it only on the play. It's so if I Thoughtseize and hit a top, counterbalance, or Terminus, I can get extra value. Also, it's good against Snapcaster. Doing so has been good in the past. I'm not saying it's correct, but it has paid off on multiple occasions. Maybe as I get better with this deck, it'll be different.
I have no idea what you're getting at here. How the deck truly wants to be played? If your meta is skewed toward creature decks, why wouldn't you opt for more removal, Visions, and Planeswalkers over discard?Quote:
Originally Posted by Secretly.A.Bee
You know, I have never brought in Surgical against Miracles, and every Miracles player I know says it is garbage, but I have never seen a Miracles player win after a Surgical resolves (really only 3-4 games total, but still worth noting).
It has made me question my evaluation of the card in the matchup.
My meta, sure, but Denver's meta has quite a bit of combo.Quote:
Originally Posted by btm10
I'm sure you didn't mean to come across as condescending.
Dumb question but has anyone ever thought about cutting lilly? Sometimes i feel like im hurting myself more with the discard aspect than i am my opponant....keep in my im i huge lily fan modern jund player) just voicing some thoughts. Ive also thought about moving jace due to so many creatures
So you think you are gonna beat a first turn top with this hand? Do you think you can beat first turn top in the long game? Im interested in why you think this is a losing play?Quote:
Originally Posted by MorphBerlin
They play 100 cantrips, how difficult will it be to just find another top? If they play a turn 2 top here how do you estimate your chances of winning?Quote:
Originally Posted by James_Nguyen
I value Force+BS higher than a top that's basically the short reason. Because the Wasteland is close to dead, the Brainstorm will virtually be +1 which makes this almost a 3 for 1 on yourself. You are at the mercy of your topdecks for the next couple of turns. I have to assume my DRS will be handled turn 2 or 3. Then I will have 3 Lands and a Decay against a Miracles opponent with 5 Cards in Hand. Doesn't sound like a winning position.
Games where they have top and when they dont have top are like night and day. Its easy mode when they dont have top so im gonna take my chances and not play around the second top because i believe we are a huge dog when they have top. Its like about an 8% chance that they have two in there opening hand so i like my odds that forcing top will keep them off it for a while.Quote:
Originally Posted by MorphBerlin
and if they have say 50 cards in their deck and 3 tops left, they are still only about 22% to find a top when they cast the first ponder/brainstorm so its actually harder then you think to find the second top.
Well as I said, they have 4 Ponders and 4 Brainstroms to find the 2nd Top too, so it is definitely more then 8% to find it on Turn 2 or 3. What about the 30-40% they have a force and just force back? 4 of their cards plus top against DRS, Decay, 2 land seems bad too. What if they have a Jace they happily slam on T4 now? It is just so much that can go wrong here.Quote:
Originally Posted by James_Nguyen
Its 8% chance they have two in their opening hand. 22% they find a second top after they cast their first brainstorm or ponder on turn 2. If they have force + blue card, they are just going to force back when they cast their jace so saving your force doesnt actually get you ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by MorphBerlin
It's not a stupid question, Lili is kinda underwhelming against the two most popular fair blue decks right now outside of Shardless, Grixis Delver and Miracles. The best advice I can offer is just to remember that you don't have to tick her up every turn just for the sake of doing so. Especially against Miracles if they have top out, it's too easy for them to intentionally draw into crap to discard to Lili while floating the good cards, so don't trade something good like an Abrupt Decay or a FoW you can hardcast just because you want to get to the ultimate ASAP.Quote:
Originally Posted by Whit3boy316
I wouldn't cut it entirely though, it's still a house against non-pyromancer delver because they have so few threats overall and it's the best thing you can ramp into against combo (non-reanimator combo anyways).
I am down to one mb and the only reason i still have one (i hate the card) is that i think its the best follow up to t2 hymn vs storm. it gives you a fighting chance to beat them game one and it marginally fine in other spots such as vs Dnt and true nameQuote:
Originally Posted by Whit3boy316
Since I agree with this if you have access to some sort of proactive plan on turn 2, I calculated the probabilities of that happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by James_Nguyen
If you Force, you can't Brainstorm (obviously), so you're looking at 11 'good' topdecks (4 Agent, 4 Goyf, assuming 3 Hymn), and 11 topdecks that aren't great but don't particularly punish the Force (assuming 3 Deathrite remaining, 3 Strix, 3 Brainstorm, 2 Liliana) you aren't punished ~41% of the time, and ~20% of the time you're rewarded with Goyf, Hymn, or Shardless Agent (you're only about 5% to find exactly one of the three remaining Brainstorms, so the impact on the total probability of finding Goyf or Hymn is only 1-2%). Without Forcing, you get three extra looks at turn 2 Hymn or Goyf via Brainstorm (for simplicity's sake I'm assuming that Force, Strix and the card it draws are exactly offset in value by the them having Top in play, though this is probably slightly in your favor on balance), meaning that you're a little better than 45% to hit your two best proactive spells in this position after having had a 20% chance to find comparably good business off of your initial draw. While you've persuaded me that it's sometimes right to Force the Top, I don't think it's a good plan in that situation because you end up making it both more important and less likely to find relevant business when you untap. The risk of wasting your mana advantage on turn 2 is simply too high to throw the Brainstorm away.
EDIT: I didn't see the comments re:cutting Liliana earlier. I think it's a totally reasonable plan. I'll try cutting mine for some combination of Ponder, Dismember, Dimir Charm, Jace, Thoughtseize, and Hymn.
@btm10 so I'm I interperting ur math correctly, u are punished 40% of the time of u force there? 20% good draw, 40% push and 40% bad draw? I'm not saying I am correct nor others are wrong, I just think it's a common situation that occurs and I would like more input.
Sorry I wasn't clear earlier, that's what happens when you do these things at work.Quote:
Originally Posted by James_Nguyen
You're 20.7% to topdeck Goyf, Agent, or Hymn, and another 26.4% to hit Strix, Brainstorm, Deathrite, or Liliana (24.5% with one fewer of any of those, 22.6% with two fewer). The nice thing is that the probabilities are additive in this situation, so you're 47.1% to topdeck something good or a push, and get punished 52.9% of the time for Forcing there. Conversely, you're ~65% to hit at least one castable business spell (from the 'good' category as defined above) if you let them resolve Top.
I'm going to a duel-for-duals event this Saturday. I know the meta is going to be predominantly creature-based. Lots of delver, eldrazi, and death and taxes.
What sideboard cards have been successful for you guys in matchups like these? I'm running a standard list with 4 decay, 1 pulse, 1 deluge main.
My current board:
1 Garruk Relentless
1 Pithing Needle
2 Thoughtseize
1 Deluge
2 Golgari Charm
1 Vendilion Clique
7 Undecided
TL:DR - Fill those 7 spots to beat delver, eldrazi, DnT
Thanks all!