I don't hate it. I've gone as low as 2 Breakthrough before, with 2 in the SB.
I think if you play Dredge more like a combo deck, then Probe + Therapy is where it's at.
I approve!
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Its just not good enough. 3 mana is a tall order to ask out of this deck. At that point I would rather play Conflagrate, its a shame it costs 2 Red. That or Crippling Fatigue, but I'm not even sure thats good enough either. I doubt there will ever be a burn spell with a cheap flashback cost.
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I went to 3 tournaments recently all GPTs. I managed to top 8 two of them, but unfortunately I got knocked out in the first round of top 8 each time, once losing to Infect (along with poor play from yours truly) and the other to a bad matchup in Sneak & Show. The list I'm sure is the same, but just for reference here it is:http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=15140&d=291743&f=LE
I was trying out a different type of sideboard and its been ok. I have not used FOW as much as I should probably be using it so I still have to playlets some more with it.
Small recaps of my top 8 matches;
Against Infect game 1 I was able to do my thing, however, he landed a turn 2 Blighted Agent and I failed to hit any Cabal Therapies which would have allowed me to name Invigorate and stop him from ending me the following turn. Game 2 I completely have a brain meltdown. This game he's already surgical'd away my Golgari Grave Trolls leaving me with lonely Thug. I have an LED in play and I have a breakthrough. I cast the breakthrough, retain priority and sacrifice LED to float red mana, he then casts Spell Pierce confidently on the breakthrough and I actually thought at the time that he was so sure he was countering it that it was FOW when it really wasn't. I could have paid for the Pierce with the mana I had floating and gone on my way to bringing that game back.. but I punted really bad.
Against Sneak and Show he's able to counter most of my gas via FOW, Pierce, Pierce, and then a single S&T made it elementary from there. Game 2 I mull down to 5. I have combo in the form of LED, Breakthrough, and Golgari Grave Troll, however, I get completely punished when I try to dredge and get hit with a timely Fearie Macabre which essentially blows me out as the troll was my only dredger.
What has been the consensus on Prized Amalgam without forces in the side? In other words, how have peoples experiences been with amalgam in general? I run four ichorids at the moment with four breakthrough ( no side-board force ). I have been considering swapping out an ichorid and breakthrough for two amalgam, i have yet to test this configuration and would like to hear others experiences with the card.
I really love two Prized Amalgams in the mainboard. If you hit them early it just feels like an amazing start into an easy win. I tried them for some time and never went back.
I don't quite like playing a playset of Ichorid and Breakthrough. I always felt that I did not have enough black creature cards in my graveyard to bring all Ichorids onto the battlefield. And getting them extracted felt even more bad. Having Breakthrough as your only draw/discard spell without LED felt really awkward so I trimmed them to three copies.
Thankk you for the reply. I can get behind three ichorid, having a looting effect with breakthrough in your opener is usually just bananas though. Breakthrough for 1 to draw a card is often really good too. Maybe i'll swap an ichorid for amalgam, thanks again.
If you're scared of Surgical Extraction, perhaps playing something entirely different from Ichorid could help. If you get your Ichorids and Narcos extracted, you need another way to trigger the Amalgams. So perhaps playing some number of Ashen Ghoul or Bloodghast in the Sideboard could help diversifying the threats, but I would instead just play some number of Street Wraiths (and or Ground Seal).
Hello everyone, just came off a League 5-0 with an interesting list I was toying with. It takes inspiration from the Japanese lists featuring Probe over Breakthrough; seems heinous, but I've really appreciated Probe boosting up percentages against combo by making Therapies so precise - I've kept some interesting hands featuring things like Probe/Therapy/Narcomoeba, just because I can shred apart my opponent's hand. It also, of course, helps with accelerating Dredges, but not as much as Breakthrough.
Not saying this is particularly better and I certainly ran well, fighting five non-blue decks.
Lands: (12)
4 Cephalid Coliseum
4 Mana Confluence
4 Gemstone Mine
Dredgers: (12)
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Golgari Thug
Discard: (13)
1 Putrid Imp
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Faithless Looting
4 Careful Study
Disruption: (8)
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Cabal Therapy
Free Creatures: (13)
3 Ichorid
4 Narcomoeba
2 Prized Amalgam
4 Bridge from Below
DR Package: (2)
1 Dread Return
1 Dragonlord Kolaghan
Sideboard: (15)
3 Firestorm
3 Wear/Tear
4 Lotus Petal
1 Ashen Rider
1 Dread Return
2 Faerie Macabre
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Quick summaries:
Burn (2-0)
- g1 keep a zero lander with a Probe, Guide feeds me one and then we stall the board until we lethal him with the crew.
- g2 I have 2x LED and no land, ready to slow Dredge. Draw Looting and I'm off to the races. My opponent Faeries wrong and then I can Dread Return a big Grave-Troll, which stalls the board until I win.
Nic Fit (2-1)
- g1 Don't crack LED in response to my Probe because I'm dumb. End up slow Dredging off a LED, eventually hit enough gas to get there and massacre his hand.
- g2 Have on the draw LED + Coliseum. End up thinking I don't have enough cards for Thresh after a Thoughtseize and miss an extra Dredging off a Looting as a result. I'm dumb. End up whiffing on creatures a fair bit and then get Scoozed.
- g3 Kept Probe/Therapy/Narco with no Dredger. Ballsy. End up shredding his weak hand with a Bridge in yard too, beating him down with a single Zombie while I flood and my opponent does not much.
Big Eldrazi (2-1)
- It's Joe Lossett!
- g1 I Probe + Therapy away his Dynamos, TKS and then blind hit an Ulamog. Nice.
- g2 I get Leylined and can't find Wear // Tear.
- g3 he mulls into oblivion.
Maverick (2-1)
- g1 Mull into zero lander, hoping to hit land and start on Pimp. Don't and die. DDD is too slow.
- g2 Have a crazy one with Study, Therapy, Petal and LED. Start first turn with a blind Therapy, and then next turn get the ball rolling and kill him.
- And then game three, make a turn one Elesh Norn with LED + Looting. Well.
4c Loam (2-1)
- g1 He has nothing relevant and we Dragonlord him.
- g2 we could've beaten the turn two Scooze. We'd mulled to five and had to dig with Loot spells for a Dredger. At one stage I end up pitching a Petal in hand, but if I didn't, I would've had exactly Threshold to crack Coliseum and go nuts while my opponent was tapped out from Scooze, as my second Looting spell cast after Scooze hit play found Thug and Stinky. Very good lesson learnt.
- g3 My opponent has no Leyline, I have study into pitching my Dredgers. He has turn one Scooze. I break Coliseum and ruin his life. Ashen Rider eats Scooze and we 5-0.
Most of these matchups I just sideboarded for speed (add LEDs, trim some Ickies, Amalgam, Pimp etc.), but I often trimmed Probes post-board when I needed to add Wear // Tear or Firestorm (especially since these were often Chalice/Thalia MUs). Interested to hear people's opinions of the sideboarding, I'm definitely still very much a student of the deck and have lots and lots to learn.
Thanks!
Nice to go 5-0, but based on your report it doesn't seem like probe is much better than breakthrough from your matchups. It does make sense to cut petals if you aren't casting breakthrough though.
Well, the on-point Therapies were helpful at stripping away hate bears and things like that, but I do agree that the results of this League aren't conclusive. The Probes certainly weren't bad though. They lend a kind of consistency (b/c of its combo with Therapy) compared to Breakthrough. Breakthrough can feel high-variance at times, especially against Blue decks.
That's fair, in my experience breakthrough is best with lotus petal so that it can be a second draw spell during a turn. (preferably on turn 1), but I like to play led a bit more all in where they more or less need a fow. Even then they are in rough shape at times.
I'm a bit late to the party on this one and I haven't played Dredge in a while, but I like the Amalgams, with or without Force. It's usually one of my first cuts for Dread Return and targets, but if we're aiming to build a board rather than just Dread Return something, it's great. There was some discussion earlier in the thread about the proper number, and I think two is probably what we want. Three Amalgams starts to get clunky; with two, they're often Ichorid food, and on three, I usually just never had a way to bring them back.
I'm no expert, and my (unfavorable) views on Street Wraith and PImp probably go against the grain, but I don't think I'd ever cut the fourth Ichorid from my mainboard. I'd rather have redundant opportunities for fast attacks and sac triggers than a discard outlet or a cycler that doesn't do anything but get exiled unless it's in our hand.
With that said, I'd been thinking to try a PImp or two again the next time I decide to Dredge it up. I'd probably switch out Amalgam and/or Thug for it, but maybe the fourth Icky is the best call.
With the recent death of Miracles, do you guys have any plans of changing your current sideboard configuration? In my case, I took out the Abrupt Decays and went back to Nature's Claim.
Sideboards should directly reflect the expected meta. So any plans now will be fruitless. I mean, I haven't run Decay in over a year. When 2/3 of the format runs Surgical, why would you? But I believe that will change.
Miracles is gone. Which means that immediately BUG Delver is a top 3 deck. No one has seen it run with 3-4 Push, and 1-2 Decay main for obvious reasons. But it's coming. And all these midrange turds that everyone is all excited to run now can look forward to T1 Deathrite, T2 Hymn, Push your Deathrite. Consequently, B/R Reanimator has lost one of it's better matchups, and one of it's worst will double in penetration. BUG will still run Surgical. It has to for Lands. Which with Miracles gone, and the predicted fallout(much more Elfs and AnT) will likely return. And with all of BUG's other disruption, it doesn't need to hedge more towards Dredge. But with the drop off of B/R, most non-Blue decks I predict will abandon their plans of hedging in Surgicals and Macabres, and go back to their more standard permanent-based hate. Which means removal is a consideration again. It just depends on how many Blue-based decks can afford to run real hate, whether or not Decay is needed over more efficient means of anti-hate.
Top had to go due to Terminus, it's nice that WotC realized. I feel it might be temporary, but who knows?
BUG is going to be a problem, but I feel with Terminus gone a whole lot of aggro/mid-range decks might emerge out in public again.
I haven't felt this positive about a new change for a VERY long time.
I despise the Bug delver matchup, as its one that seems quite difficult for me. Cabal therapy gets met with brainstorm and their counter magic always hits a relevant spell of mine, all the while getting beat down by that piece of shit gnat.
Bug has plenty of creature removal for our bridges which adds to the frustration. Considering we may be (will be) seeing this deck more often I would like to hear others strategies for beating bug delver. Personally I think 13 land is a minimum to avoid getting wasted out of the game. Is it time to bring back firestorm as a way to destroy (as well as overwhelm) DRS? Due to their plethora of counter magic (and a good player won't take it out) regardless of on the play or draw a turn one therapy targeting them seems reasonable in understanding what to play around.
Usually they only have surgicals for graveyard hate, so it's pretty easy to overwhelm them with an expolosive hand. In game 1 just try to get in a situation where you have an explosive turn, either a diamond into faithless looting, or just an imp on 1 followed by a couple draw spells. Mulliganing aggresively is key to make sure their deathrite is meaningless. Once you get a lot of cards in the yard, therapy prioritizing abrupt decay. You don't need a dread return to win so just try to build up an army of zombies by taking their removal so they can't kill bridges. Sometimes they have everything, but that's magic.
As for the sideboard games, I've run firestorm since I picked up the deck in 2012, has it fallen out of favor? I run 3-4 in the board, bringing it in against any deathrite deck and elves. Sometimes BUG players will keep a hand with force and deathrite and no other hate, so if you are able to therapy for force, or bait it with imp/LED you should be good to resolve it. Having an extra ichorid in the sideboard helps versus any fair deck, if you aren't running the full 4 main. Postboard I like to have a dread return target just in case they surgical bridge from below. I run Griselbrand and dragonlord kolaghan main for the explosive combo kills. BUG delver typically can't beat a 6/5 flying or a Griselbrand in play, so if you resolve a dread return on those you should be fine.
I've usually run Firestorm in some number, as I expect to face Elves half the times I go play.
Thing is, Firestorm makes sense right now with Top/Terminus no longer out there, as creature based decks like Elves will have some serious game.
Get your Firestorm ready boys and girls....
Agree. I'm running 1x Firestorm maindeck with another 3x in the sideboard for certain matchups (Elves, for example). The sheer number of DRS around makes the maindeck copy worth it so far, and at its worst it's an instant-speed, uncounterable discard outlet.
It's been a while since I took this deck for a spin http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...p?DeckID=47837 and have lots of questions to those that are having success.
I see fragmentize in boards and wanted to know if it being a sorcery has ever been a problem, where nature claim was the standard.
How's prized a. working. Are we being it in like nether spirit use to come in vs surgical decks?
While always meta dependent, it feels like there's going to be a lot of combo in the near future which might make breakthrough x4 the right call.
I'm not seeing flayer being played much, any reason why?
How'd we come up with a land count. Some list are running 12-13 and that seems a little on the light side to me.
I've run fragmentize and basically noticed no difference with it being a sorcery. I think overall the life gain matters more in sideboard games when playing through hate, since the deck slows down when hate is present and you may be racing. There are trade offs, but I think fragmentize is fine. Personally I've been running natural state. No one in my area runs leyline, so it's just the best option. Overall it feels like most decks only run 1-3 hate cards, which makes other options better. If I played a hypothetical 30 round tournament I would probably lose 1 or 2 games because of that, but since it's so fringe i don't care. Leyline is probably the worst hate card against dredge anyway, since you basically have to mulligan to find it, which makes your hands worse, which just gives the dredge player more time to find a way to deal with it, or leaves the leyline player without a counter for fragmentize/claim.
I've never tested amalgam, but with surgical easily being the most popular graveyard hate out there, I think it's good in theory. It allows us to still build up a board if they hit our bridges, so I think it's probably good enough, though I've never tested it so what do I know.
I don't run flayer because I don't like running a lot of dread returns. I want 2 dread returns max, because the deck is really tight on space, and I feel like you need 3 to really take advantage of it. With top getting banned, the 2 most common ensnaring bridge and moat decks (painter and miracles respectively) got nerfed, so I think winning through combat is still the way to go. I run dragonloard kolaghan still because a lot of decks can't beat a 6/5 flying. Having a card you can just reanimate that can probably go the distance after a surgical on bridge from below postboard is good.
My typical build has 2 breakthrough as a flex slot. When the meta locally is really delver heavy, I run 2 lands instead going up to 14, when it's combo heavy I run the breakthroughs. I feel like against storm, therapy is usually good enough to slow them down, that we don't have to maximize explosive potential. I do like breakthrough against show and tell deck though.
- I don't believe the Sorcery speed is really relevant. In my experience they're both just as susceptible to counter magic. ;p Sometimes the life matters more anyway.
- Prized is good. He's a big body that sticks around and keeps bringing the beats alongside any free Ichorids you have crashing in. They make you a little less reliant on Bridge From Below and as you mentioned gives you a diversified threat to combat Surgical to an extent.
- Yeah combo is running rampant right now as there is no agreed upon "control" deck at the moment to keep them down. There is definitely an uptick in B/R Reanimator, Storm, Sneak and Show, Elves, Food Chain, and others. Breakthrough as a 3-4 is fine. I like to keep my 4th in the SB personally as I would rather be a little more consistent game 1, but its a meta call for sure.
- Flayer is pretty decent imo. Its nice because it gets around effects like Ensnaring Bridge which is picking up due to Mono Red Prison. The apprehension is probably that you might want to run 3 Dread Return at that point to "combo" someone in a single turn as the odds with just 2 might be sparse. All I can think of.
- Its usually been either 12-13. And you have LEDs. The deck doesn't really need more than 1 land usually and sometimes no lands in the case of Manaless or sometimes we end up running the game out of the graveyard grinding out Ichorids and churning out zombies as a means to winning.
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This is my most recent list I've been trying. If someone does leagues on MTGO please lab it or if you have an upcoming tournament maybe you might want to give it a go. ;p
To me it feels smoother and more consistent. This list has no Careful Study, Street Wraith, nor Dread Return main. The sideboard is a blank slate at the moment in conjunction with this new main deck, but its probably something straight forward. Alternatively someone can swap out the 3x Breakthrough and run 3x main deck Careful Study; to me that would be the most consistent, but you lose a lot of raw power that breakthrough provides. The Probes just make a lot more sense to me because we play Cabal Therapy plus its nice to know if your opponent can interact at all that turn and gives you insight into their next line of play. Other times it acts as a free dredge. (But I can also see a list cutting all probes and playing Careful Study in that slot lol) Losing Street Wraith meant that I would be hurting to return Ichorid's consistently due to the lack of black creatures and thus Putrid Imp makes a comeback. There is no argument needed for PImp as it does all the things this deck wants.
But yeah let me know if this feels ok. Otherwise might just go back to the lab or figure something else out.
4x Putrid Imp
4x Narcomoeba
4x Ichorid
2x Prized Amalgam
4x Golgari Grave Troll
4x Stinkweed Imp
3x Golgari Thug
4x Bridge from Below
4x Lion's Eye Diamond
3x Breakthrough
4x Faithless Looting
4x Cabal Therapy
4x Gitaxian Probe
4x Mana Confluence
3x Gemstone Mine
2x City of Brass
3x Cephalid Coliseum
SB: Tailor it to your meta
I must be one of the last Hold Outs that plays a combo shell that can still grind as opposed to the grindy quadlaser style.
As for Flayer, I find him to be an amazing combo finisher in addition to also dealing with problem creatures in a grindier matchup.
Creatures: 25
4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Golgari Thug
4 Narcomoeba
3 Ichorid
2 Putrid Imp
2 Prized Amalgam
1 Flayer of the Hatebound
1 Flame-Kin Zealot
Sorcery: 16
4 Faithless Looting
3 Breakthrough
3 Careful Study
3 Cabal Therapy
3 Dread Return
Artifact: 4
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
Enchantment: 4
4 Bridge from Below
Lands: 12
4 City of Brass
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Cephalid Coliseum
Sideboard:
3 Leyline of Sanctity
3 Firestorm
3 Serenity
2 Nature's Claim (looking into fragmentize)
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
1 Ichorid
1 Flex (currently Darkblast)
Flex Slot changes as meta does. Sideboard is a little dated from when miracles/enchantress was popular in my area.
I've been asked about the lack of Ashen Rider a few times, he fits into the Flex slot when needed.
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I've been out of MtG for years, and I sold most of my cards. Now that I'm getting back into the game, I'm looking for a competitive, combo(ish) deck that doesn't cost an arm and a leg.
I've always thought Dredge was a cool deck, and even sleeved it up a few times way back when. That was with LED, though, so I don't know how competitve the non-LED versions actually are. For general tournament play, are classic (non-LED) and manaless versions still viable? And is either one of those particularly stronger than the other?
LEDless Dredge is viable, but slower, and weaker. My advice is to add Lotus Petal if you can't find LED. It is NOT a 1 for 1 replacement, but it is an accelerant.
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I've loaned out my LEDs a couple times for locals and just ran a 4 tireless tribe and 4 putrid imp build, basically one of the classic shells from before faithless looting. I like it better against fair decks without deathrite shaman. It's a lot slower but more resilient to counterspells, and it mulligans a lot less. It's not ideal because it can be too slow against deathrite sometimes, but it will get you playing the format until you can save up for diamonds.
manaless is still quite good and you'll see it come up in the 5-0 lists from mtgo. you still are vulnerable to leyline of the void, but the deck is one of the most consistent decks (barring all the hate) in legacy.
If I was going to run a "combo all in" version then this would be it:
4x Putrid Imp
4x Narcomoeba
4x Ichorid
4x Golgari Grave Troll
4x Stinkweed Imp
3x Golgari Thug
1x Flame Kin Zealot
4x Bridge from Below
4x Lion's Eye Diamond
3x Breakthrough
4x Faithless Looting
4x Cabal Therapy
3x Careful Study
2x Dread Return
4x Mana Confluence
3x Gemstone Mine
2x City of Brass
3x Cephalid Coliseum
SB:
My combo version still wouldn't be the craziest just the most efficient at killing someone with the least dead cards possible. Dread Return in your hand is awful so it leads to more mulligans, however, this should be alleviated by the fact that there are now a exorbitant amount of discard outlets in the form of Careful Study, Faithless Looting, Putrid Imp, LED, and Cabal Therapy... Breakthrough.. Flame Kin Zealot does nothing outside of being a DR Target (not a black creature for Ichorid), but it leads to the instant kill usually and doesn't need additional cards to get your opponent dead like Flayer or Griselbrand do.
While I agree that Flayer often needs help to win, the main board option to win through a bridge/ disadvantageous board is huge. I also find that with the inclusion of Amalgam it gives additional power to the Flayer and allows additional grinding while giving the potential for a combo kill.
The lack of more black creatures is why I am only running 3 Ichorids instead of 4.
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An ensnaring bridge is one thing, we create the disadvantageous board not them. This deck primarily wins through beats and i have a hard time understanding why people try to get cute with dread return. Our opening hands need to be gas that include preferably draw spells and lands, not hopes and prayers. Besides in the board, i never fuck with dread return and targets. Amalgam now gives us another free threat to overwhelm with, three ichorid and two amalgam has been awesome and you don't have to play force for amalgam to be optimal. Lands, draw spells and dredgers; that' how you win most consistent.
I agree with the assessment of Flayer, but general combo is common enough that having a way to win quickly can be important, which is why I like kologhan or the zealot. Also, post board against surgical extraction decks being able to reanimate a fatty is sometimes the only way to win if they snag the bridges with the surgical. Amalgam does help with getting enough creatures without bridge so I think it's great, but since most legacy decks can beat some 3/3s and 1/1s I want something to put the deck over the top without bridge.
If you are playing a Grind game, yes our idea is constantly recurring ichorids and amalgams to overtime overwhelm an opponent. 4 sacrifice 1 creature effects vs 3 sacrifice 1 and 3 sacrifice 3 is a huge difference. Dread Return is also a synergy with Amalgam which can enable bigger damages or board clears against a deck like Death and Taxes.
I agree being a deck that wants gas is a base definition of Dredge, however, I have had maybe 10 mulligans anecdotally caused by DR build hands and given how long I've played the deck, I'll take the added explosiveness.
Once again anecdotally, I have had enough legitimate turn 1 kills from having the DR package that seem to warrant its inclusion in a meta with 1-2 mana hate and force of will.
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Hi all recently got top 8 at another GPT. Here is the list for reference which is pretty much what I had been discussing previously, however, this is the version that did not include Gitaxian Probe: http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...=1#post1007977
6 Round Tournament
Round 1: Bye, "must be nice."
1-0
Round 2: Elves, 2-1
2-0
Round 3: DnT, 0-2
2-1
Round 4: U/R Delver, 2-0
3-1
Round 5: U/W/R Stoneblade, 2-1
4-1
Round 6: ID
4-1-1 into Top 8
Quarterfinals: Sneak & Show, buddy of mine who already had byes for the GP, he concedes to me.
Semi Finals: U/R Delver, 0-2
Game 1: I had to mulligan to 5 and he FOW'd my only discard outlet. He plays Delver and a cantrips into more soft counters in the form of daze to stop me from really doing anything. Eventually I die to Delver and some swiftspears rather quickly.
Game 2: I keep with Putrid Imp, land, Coliseum, Firestorm, a couple of narcos, and an Ichorid I believe. My plan was to just Firestorm his early pressure and once I hit a dredger I could make it rather elementary. I was able to firestorm a couple of creatures, however, it took me longer than I thought to find a dredger and by that point he had found more cheap threats to add to the board. In hindsight my keep was greedy, but I also wanted to test Firestorm some more.
If there was one thing I might look into it would be to fit the 12th dredger in there somewhere. The games I'm usually losing are the games I mulligan heavily due to not finding a dredger in my opening hand.
Congrats on another T8 finish, Que. I also got into T8 in our regular monthly legacy tournament here in the Philippines. These were my match ups:
Rd1 2-1 Win vs Burn
Rd2 2-0 Win vs ANT
Rd3 2-0 Win vs MUD Post
Rd4 0-2 Loss vs BR Reanimator
Rd5 ID
Finished 4th in the swiss with a record of 3-1-1 but lost in the quarterfinals to Grixis Delver in 3 games because of double surgical and a grafdigger's cage in both postboard games.
Hey folks,
It's nice to be back. I'm quite glad that we're still floating around and improving with this deck. The last contribution I had to the discussion is now in the archived threads forum. Yikes.
Since I'm re-immersing myself in the format (though not unfamiliar with what's played now), I would like to start with some deeper analysis than playing card x over card y. So, here's an opening hand I had in a test recently:
You can view it here
The list is nearly a mirror of Joseph's, which is two posts up. I'm on the draw and I kept this hand against an unknown versus (we can discuss this keep as well if you like). Versus mulligans to six, leads with Misty Rainforest, and passes. My draw is Mana Confluence. What are you thinking about as you decide what you're going to do, and what's your preferred line in most situations?
Looking forward to it.
I feel like you lead with mine and the imp to try to get more info. If it eats a daze that's fine, if it eats force great, if it resolves even better. If it resolves or gets forced, or maybe even dazed I would run out the LED assuming the path is most likely clear, then I would just leave it in play until I can cast a looter. Trying to go all in on breakthrough seems suspect with just thug. My biggest fear is wasteland on turn 2 followed by a bunch of soft counters on the looters. This hand can grind pretty well so as long as you can cast things you are going to beat any fair deck.
Since there is no cantrip I would assume they aren't a combo deck. If they are a combo deck they are probably sneak and show with a turn 2 show and tell next turn. I would assume the opponent is rug delver or a bug deck of some kind, against either of those that hand is great. If it is actually a fair deck breakthrough is less relevant regardless, so saving it for last is probably the best bet regardless.
First of all, hand is a snap keep. It's almost perfect.
Second, once you draw the second land off the top your hand is practically 100% against all fair decks in the format that would lead on Misty, because even double-counter plus Turn 2 Wasteland don't blow you out.
My line would be:
1. Play confluence.
2. Play LED.
3. Play Study and see what they do. Can't really go on talking without knowing what they end up doing, it depends on too many things. If they Force, they probably have no other counters, which means your flashbacked Looting is likely to resolve. If they Daze, they're not a combo deck and you can pass turn doing the same play next turn, etc.