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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
Anyway, I am starting to wonder something. I keep noticing I'm having a hard time finding cards that shouldn't be hard to find. Especially foils of older cards that no one really cares about. It's weird.
I had the same with cards like Diabolic Intent and Eladamri's Call.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Diabolic Intent, there's a prime example. It's not even an EDH fav. That should be easy to run across, but you never see them.
Eldamri's Call I can kind of understand due to EDH players picking them up and that old random life deck, but there should still be plenty out there.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bruizar
I had the same with cards like Diabolic Intent and Eladamri's Call.
It may be the opposite that's the issue. I mean, how many old Meddling Mages do you see floating around? People write off old cards that aren't expensive and leave them boxed up somewhere.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
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Originally Posted by
mchainmail
It may be the opposite that's the issue. I mean, how many old Meddling Mages do you see floating around? People write off old cards that aren't expensive and leave them boxed up somewhere.
This. I am currently selling off most of my collection. While doing this I have created a shoebox of cards not worth selling. Rather hold on to em and hope a card or two out of the hundreds will go the way of dark depths(junk to gold). I was glad to finally take my hive minds out of the junk box and unload Em while everyone scoops them up.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Ok so mtgsalvation has an official rumor posted by the admins that "hook" block after innistrad will feature ravnica duals. Looks like wizards is going all out to support modern. If this doesn't confirm a transition from online to paper for modern, I don't know what does. My question is what is the worth of the rav duals and is it worth it to pick then up now? I would say YES. It will not be reprinted multiple times like in a core set, so it will always retain value. However, it has been Printed before in rav. Look at solemn simulacrum. The card is shooting up like crazy. Rav duals will be played in Edh (which is basically the reason rav duals still have value), modern and briefly in standard. They will be extremely hot. Same goes with Zendikat fetches. Im going to predict ons fetch reprints soon as well.
Thoughts?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
What makes you think they will support Modern? They said this about Choose your own standard also and that turned out to just be a made up format for a one shot. (though I really liked that idea). I actually wouldn't like Modern much.
Anyway, Ravnica duals go up decently anyway since they are one of the best replacements for regular duals if you can't afford them. If anything the tabletop crowd loves the rav ones. So easy to trade.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Mainly because extended sucks and there is huge interest in modern. Modern is now more played online compared to legacy! That's a scary statistic. Rav duals are EDH gold, everyone needs them for Edh. Rav duals + fetches are really important colour fixers in that format. I see no risk in picking rav duals up now at the 8-10 mark. They're likely to hit 20 eventually.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ivanpei
Ok so mtgsalvation has an official rumor posted by the admins that "hook" block after innistrad will feature ravnica duals. Looks like wizards is going all out to support modern. If this doesn't confirm a transition from online to paper for modern, I don't know what does. My question is what is the worth of the rav duals and is it worth it to pick then up now? I would say YES. It will not be reprinted multiple times like in a core set, so it will always retain value. However, it has been Printed before in rav. Look at solemn simulacrum. The card is shooting up like crazy. Rav duals will be played in Edh (which is basically the reason rav duals still have value), modern and briefly in standard. They will be extremely hot. Same goes with Zendikat fetches. Im going to predict ons fetch reprints soon as well.
Thoughts?
If the September 2012 set is as good as Ravnica to draft, has the Duals as rare, and the distribution stays the same, they will savagely tank. Keep in mind they were R1s in Ravnica. So You would have a 2 in 111 chance of pulling a dual (assuming a printrun similar to Zendikar). In Ravnica, you had a 1 in 88 chance of pulling a dual.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mr.C
If the September 2012 set is as good as Ravnica to draft, has the Duals as rare, and the distribution stays the same, they will savagely tank. Keep in mind they were R1s in Ravnica. So You would have a 2 in 111 chance of pulling a dual (assuming a printrun similar to Zendikar). In Ravnica, you had a 1 in 88 chance of pulling a dual.
Right, and if Wizards reprints Force of Will and Wasteland in M13, those will tank too.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
If there is enough demand, I highly doubt they'll tank. Sfm is gone from standard, is a rare and widely cracked (thanks Jace). Sfm is played in legacy, modern, Edh. The price is still solid. If rav duals are reprinted (non core set) it will be fairly valuable because the demand will be huge. Around 20 during standard and 10-15 once it rotates. If modern becomes popular, they'll stay at 15-20 and appreciate gradually IMO.
If the rav duals were in a core set, then yes they will tank due to being reprinted over and over again. As a one off reprint, I think its safe to pick em up.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
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Originally Posted by
Tha Gunslinga
Right, and if Wizards reprints Force of Will and Wasteland in M13, those will tank too.
So you're saying they would be $65 and $45 respectively as rares? I can see that as mythics, but not as rares.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ivanpei
If there is enough demand, I highly doubt they'll tank. Sfm is gone from standard, is a rare and widely cracked (thanks Jace). Sfm is played in legacy, modern, Edh. The price is still solid. If rav duals are reprinted (non core set) it will be fairly valuable because the demand will be huge. Around 20 during standard and 10-15 once it rotates. If modern becomes popular, they'll stay at 15-20 and appreciate gradually IMO.
If the rav duals were in a core set, then yes they will tank due to being reprinted over and over again. As a one off reprint, I think its safe to pick em up.
Eh, fetchlands are of similar rarity and are of the same kind of demand that shocklands will be, so compare to those. Only difference here is zendikar fetchlands had similar counterparts printed, while shocklands will have exact copies reprinted. My guess is shocklands will have a similar price to new fetches. So roughly ten bucks. What are the shocklands costing now?
Roughly ten bucks. You are better off investing in oil.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ivanpei
Mainly because extended sucks and there is huge interest in modern. Modern is now more played online compared to legacy! That's a scary statistic. Rav duals are EDH gold, everyone needs them for Edh. Rav duals + fetches are really important colour fixers in that format. I see no risk in picking rav duals up now at the 8-10 mark. They're likely to hit 20 eventually.
I think that any lands printed at rare in a large set would likely settle at $5-10.
The Zendikar fetchlands are probably the most playable cycle of lands in every single format, including Vintage, Legacy, Extended, Standard, EDH, etc. (yes, they see more play than dual lands in eternal formats, plus see play in newer formats where duals are not legal). They could be had for $8-10, which in my opinion is a hardcap for how much a rare land can be worth now in new sets (assuming those sets get opened as much as Zendikar, which is a safe assumption if they do reprint allied fetchlands, shocklands, duals, etc.). Moreover, unlike a hypothetical reprint of Onslaught fetches or Ravnica block shocklands, Zendikar enemy fetchlands were original at the time, which means it isn't competing with a large existing supply; that factor would further drive down the price of any reprinted lands.
There was a time when cards like Reflecting Pool, painlands, shocklands, etc. would cost over $10-15 while they were legal in Standard. Those days are gone with the new mythic rarity and the smaller sets. M10 and Scars block duals can easily be had for $1-4.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Firstly, if the shock lands do see a reprint as a rare, The value of the cards goes down significantly. New sets get openned so much more than before and the hit ratio to get a specific shock would certainly be higher if it were a rare. Even if they don't see reprints, I think the shocks will be hyped more than they are worth. I think most people here see shock lands as slightly bad duals. They arent. They are a completely different card. If modern becomes a format in paper, I bet the shocks play a role, but not like duals do for legacy. The real duals have relatively few drawbacks, the only one of significance being that they are non-basic. They have no contenders for thier slot.
Unlike dual lands, there really are good alternatives for the shocks. When I say alternatives, I don't mean poor mans shock lands, I mean legitimate substitutes that have advantages over the shock lands. Taking five life so you can Thoughtsieze turn one is a hefty price. How much value is there in 2 life? All I can say is that 10% of your life is not trivial.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
If shocklands do see reprinted, i would dump them as quickly as possible. They will go up in price initially, then they will drop down to $8-$15 the most due to overabundance of supplies by cracking packs since the set will be hot.
I predict it will exactly become like the Zenikar fetchlands price trend. People preordered them and caused the prices to went up really high. Just look at how much they are now.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I'd buy/trade for ZEN fetches after they rotate. They might go down but probably not much. Regardless most people won't value them too highly so they should be pretty easy to get a hold of. They might not drop at all, but pick em up anyways. They won't get any cheaper or used less.
On the other hand, ONS fetches have been slowly creeping up. Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta are both 30. For cards that have been played as heavily and consistently as these do you think that this is their ceiling? I do not. Especially since they've been 25 for so long.
Dark Confidant is also up to 40. Jumped another 5 dollars... in the last few days, maybe a week. Again, this was pretty easy to see since Dark Confidant is the best creature in the game and sees and as much play as Tarmogoyf from an older set. Probably hits 50 easily, maybe more. Especially if Modern or Overextended is a format.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
If there is a "deck to beat" in Standard and it runs 4x of a shock land the price could go as high as $15. I don't see the price for shocks ever breaking that. Modern as a format depends on the shocklands staying low. Don't expect shock lands to ever pass $20 as long as WotC is pushing Modern. What's likely to happen is WotC will leave the current M12 duals in M13/M14 to keep demand for shocks low in standard since it seems pretty obvious they are more interested in increasing their availability then anything else. In that case the on color ones will be under $10 for sure.
Either way shock lands are a fool's bet. Best case scenario you sell them when the set is spoiled and maybe double your money in 2 years (If you're lucky). One thing for sure though, if shocklands make ANY gains because of modern a reprint will completely wipe that out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Amon Amarth
I'd buy/trade for ZEN fetches after they rotate. They might go down but probably not much. Regardless most people won't value them too highly so they should be pretty easy to get a hold of. They might not drop at all, but pick em up anyways. They won't get any cheaper or used less.
On the other hand, ONS fetches have been slowly creeping up. Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta are both 30. For cards that have been played as heavily and consistently as these do you think that this is their ceiling? I do not. Especially since they've been 25 for so long.
Dark Confidant is also up to 40. Jumped another 5 dollars... in the last few days, maybe a week. Again, this was pretty easy to see since Dark Confidant is the best creature in the game and sees and as much play as Tarmogoyf from an older set. Probably hits 50 easily, maybe more. Especially if Modern or Overextended is a format.
Zen fetches seem like a good idea, plenty of Standard only players will be dumping them when they rotate. Onslaught fetches are worth every penny if you play, but NO WAY would I speculate on them if I were you. It's one of those things where it's not IF they will be reprinted it's WHEN.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Amon Amarth
Dark Confidant is also up to 40. Jumped another 5 dollars... in the last few days, maybe a week.
They're still ebaying for $28-30, which is flat from the last few weeks. Some playsets have been hitting 140/set, but I'm not seeing 40 as the set price.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I don't see how Modern will be a success if a lot of cards don't get reprinted like Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant etc. Wizards says they want to lower the price of entry but this won't happen if they don't reprint a lot of what will probably be staples unless of course said staples are banned. They also would have to reprint every several years as well in order to keep prices down such as the Ravnica duals etc. Otherwise, it will just become Legacy pricing after several years have passed with no reprints. Wizards probably shot themselves in the foot stating that the purpose of Modern is to lower cost of entry when in fact, with no reprints the prices will actually rise...I have no doubt in my mind that Dark Confidant and/or Tarmogoyf will hit three digits if Modern becomes legal with no reprints of said cards. They already saw how much Jace TMS went for in Standard at its peak...why would they want to repeat a mistake like that again? Its either ban or reprint.
Another thing is that they can't actually reprint said cards in a 'Standard' legal set unless they know for sure they won't be 'broken' in that format. They also can't just reprint said cards in a 'From the Vault' set that only goes to the LGS since that will be a very limited print run and will not make much of a dent in the supply. So, Wizards if they reprint said cards will have to probably opt for a set that can go to major retailers ala 'Commander', or Premium Deck Series (without the crappy foils...yeah I hate foils!) where said cards are only Modern/Legacy/Vintage legal. That is pretty much the only way they can reprint the cards and keep the prices low for Modern to succeed. Otherwise, it will be just like Legacy several years down the road when prices are through the roof due to the lack of supply and high demand(if Modern actually becomes really popular) and thus becoming what Wizards didn't want to happen in the first place.
I'd play Modern if Wizards really went out of their way in order to lower the cost of entry and thus allowing reprints of staples mentioned herein and keeping the prices low. But if they don't stick with that mantra, what's the point? I'd rather just play Legacy then and play with my dual lands with no drawbacks, Force of Will, etc.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
The Duel Decks are likely the best way to reprint cards if you don't want them affecting standard. If reprinting in Standard isn't an issue, then putting them in a core set is best since those only stay around for just over a year now.
