[Official] Bitching About Prices, Buyouts and Reprints Thread

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Originally Posted by bruizar

With respect nedleeds, I think you are caught up in your own property. You are clearly vested in your collection and will defend your position from the perspective of someone who has a lot to lose.

Should you take some distance and take a look at the matter not from the perspective of your own interest, but as an outsiders who is only interested in observing the trend and its inevitable consequences, you'd come to realize how unhealthy this game is. In fact, I wouldn't call it a game anymore.

A near doubling in price of duals in 4 months is not sustainable, regardless of how you spin it. This market is cooked and cornered. There are literally millions and millions of staples out there. Supply is ubiquitous. It is really not the problem.

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The Warhol thing was pretty interesting. He basically stated that with enough money, you can decide the price of an item. If there was a very well-known shop or person paying $1000 for any and all Underground Seas and the word was out there in the market, no one would ever sell their Seas to anyone if they knew they could move them for $1000. This is what the Warhol dealer did, whether for the love of the artist or not. He just paid whatever he could get them at, and eventually, all the ones he bought up at $30,000 are now worth a whole ton more.

Pimping is an entirely different ball game. Unhinged foil basics serve no more utility than free basic lands given away at your local store, but people want to pimp. It's why performance cars exist - it's not the destination (tapping for mana), but the journey and experience (tapping for mana while being lots of money).

Also, the big dual land pic is an old pic from a Bazaar of Moxen prize pool, if I recall. Everyone just uses that pic as a greed pic when it was for prize support, if I recall.

Realistically, I would like to see prices come down and supply increase, however that happens. Sure, if you bought in at $200 Underground Seas it might suck, but then you just don't sell your Seas ever and you're still good to go. Prices going up can be good to a point, but I know that if I were buying into Legacy now, even with the money to spend, I might not want to. Cockatrice and proxies could be an option if I just wanted to fool around. Realistically, reprinting Force of Will and Wasteland and the other cards that aren't on the Reserved List would be a good start.

-Matt

bruizar makes an interesting claim that Magic could be used for money laundering. I'm not sure the Magic market has the liquidity to do large scale laundering like art might, but I could definitely believe some sort of laundering is going on. That being said, it just seems like a bit of stretch to watch a youtube video claiming x is the cause for y then say x is also the cause for z.

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Also wanted to address the "priced out" argument. That's bullshit. Many people in my generation got exposed to the game as kids and now that they're settling into lucrative nerdy careers, they find themselves with a grand or more a month to spare. Of all the stupid shit to spend money on, something that historically has appreciated quite a bit doesn't seem like the worst. I wouldn't be surprised to find that the hikes are caused by real demand that's fairly cost-insensitive.

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Originally Posted by Megadeus

I like the demographic of legacy players.

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I don't see the demographic change over the past years, if you get what I mean...

It's not like our weekly Legacies were full of children when duals were 600 crowns per piece, then it became more mature when they climbed to 1200 crowns and finally it happened to be a greybeard-only format when the lands went over two thousand.

At least our Legacy Thursdays were always the same speaking of demographic. Not to mention that being adult is not a sure way to not be a douche. I'd rather spend my time with a decent young gentleman, than with some of the Source users famous for their arrogance, conceit, haughtiness, showing of and scornfulness.

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Originally Posted by sdematt

Pimping is an entirely different ball game. Unhinged foil basics serve no more utility than free basic lands given away at your local store, but people want to pimp. It's why performance cars exist - it's not the destination (tapping for mana), but the journey and experience (tapping for mana while being lots of money).

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Yes. Sadly, not every pimping is pimping, and buying Revised duals for 160 euros is definitely not a pimping process. These cards are playable material and people would use even cheaper game pieces if they'd be available. Otoh, now when I think of it, a piece of cardboard for three thousand crowns says a lot about one's status, so even though most of the Legacy diehards sneer at Revised duals, there are others who drool over them.
Shame they weren't printed in Fourth Edition, not only that there would be many more of them, but they'd be available without the hiddeous "T:" symbol, not even speaking of the whole wording "You may turn this sideways on the table and then add one mana of the appropriate color into your mana pool, which in a case of this one particular land is either one green mana or one white mana. This card counts as both... zzz..." of the older versions.

As I already wrote, I can't imagine any hobbyist (no matter what's his hobby, be it fishing or bibliophilia or skateboard or Warhammer or whatever else) saying "wow, I'm so happy that my hobby is expensive, every time I need anything, I need to spend a basket of money." So it surprises me that in MtG it should be different. But to each his own, or how the phrase goes.

I just cannot understand why WotC did not decide to make money of the Eternal, but maybe they are afraid that the Standard scene may crumble, or they don't wanna dip into the many troubles of Eternal cardpool and interactions, moreover it's quite possible that they're secretly printing the old cards and throw them into circulation via proxy companies.

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Originally Posted by phazonmutant

bruizar makes an interesting claim that Magic could be used for money laundering. I'm not sure the Magic market has the liquidity to do large scale laundering like art might, but I could definitely believe some sort of laundering is going on. That being said, it just seems like a bit of stretch to watch a youtube video claiming x is the cause for y then say x is also the cause for z.

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It is (could be) done in a same way as the restaurants that sell baked duck for 300 euros do it. It's not like anybody controls them if they really sold two hundred dinners daily. In MtG it's even more easy. You'll write that you bought one hundred Jaces for 25 euro and then you'll write that you sold them for 50 euro. No tax dude would ever understand what's going on, as long as you'll show him the decklists. "Yes, my dear, it sounds ludicrous, but people really buy our Jaces and baked ducks." There are thousands of liquid MtG pieces, contrary to art, they are indistinguishable, they're prices are more affected by temporal swings, etc., etc. It shouldn't be hard to laundry e.g. a million crowns per month, you onlyneed to "sell" what, fifty Jaces, fourty goyfs, thirty duals, twenty pimp stuff and nine power nine? Pretty inconspicuous in a world where MKM users have 10k sols items.

350 $ USeas? I guess I'll have to correct my forecast: Instead of the end of the year, USea is going to reach 450-500 $ around July and 750+$ at the end of the year.

Welcome to the death of Legacy, enjoy your stay!

Edit: As long as no external shock happens.

It's not just legacy though. Even modern costs a lot of money to play nowadays. When modern fetch is 60 euros each, I think it's a real problem. Not long ago, legacy fetch was 30 euros, so Modern is already becoming more expensive than legacy was only recently. This is all spiraling out of control. Let's just hope reprints for modern will occur sooner rather than later.

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I think theft will be an ever increasing issue. Most people learn about magic at school. These kids are between 14 and 17, some even younger. Contrast the cost of a pimp deck at ~20.000 euros to the average allowance that kids get today (living in a financial crisis). If you're a kid from a family that is struggling to make ends meet, and you see all these incredibly expensive decks in a mass of people, it's understandable that the temptation might be too big for people not to do something they shouldn't. Every time the prices double, the risk of ownership increases. That risk includes theft at tournaments, silverfish running around in your cards (which are attracted to cardboard), breaking into your apartment, the constant fear of a price crash or the risk of your foils bending due to temperature change.

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Originally Posted by bruizar

the constant fear of a price crash

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I, for one, welcome this event and don't fear it. Please, I'll do a rain dance if it would help lower the prices of staples.

-Matt

I only recall price crashes in mtg only occurring when something is banned (jtms), rotates out (goyf), is reprinted (thoughtseize) or is hyped up prior to the release of a set and is actually not good (countless mythics ect). Since most of these arent an issue in legacy, what would actually trigger a crash?

With prices where they are and Wizards' ignorance towards the issue, I think its only a matter of time before counterfeiting becomes an real issue.

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Originally Posted by phonics

I only recall price crashes in mtg only occurring when something is banned (jtms), rotates out (goyf), is reprinted (thoughtseize) or is hyped up prior to the release of a set and is actually not good (countless mythics ect). Since most of these arent an issue in legacy, what would actually trigger a crash?

With prices where they are and Wizards' ignorance towards the issue, I think its only a matter of time before counterfeiting becomes an real issue.

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This is a good point. I can imagine the following scenarios (some more likely than others):
1) Mostly the fear of reprints. Original foils are quiet resistant to reprints though. I think this effect is limited though.
2) Support for the prices evaporates, similar to how the Bitcoin lost its validity as a container of value.
3) Prices stay the same, but the liquidity of the market freezes entirely, since no one is willing to buy the cards for the asking price, but sellers aren't willing to take their loss and decide to stick with their cards. This leads to the slow demise of the community as more and more people get children, etc.
4) Transparency puts an end to the illusion of scarcity. Leaks of actual print runs appear. Articles about the number of staples in circulation contrasted against the number of players are written. The identification of the main card hoarders (Such as this alpha hoarder list attempt: http://classic.magictraders.com/ubb/...ML/025627.html) or this graded alpha hoarder http://registry.beckett.com/set-deta...-hoard_2295948. And the market cornering practices of Scarcitygames are no longer tolerated. And IRS scrutiny against the main traders in the game happens.
5) Government regulation against unknowns in chance-games is implemented like it was in Japan (kompu gacha system): http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...nt-cracks-down

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero.” (Voltaire, 1694-1778)

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Originally Posted by nedleeds

Are you playing standard? If so how much does standard cost over a 2-3 year period? Or are you just priced out of Magic period? I mean if so that's too bad I'm sorry you didn't get in earlier as eternal magic is really fun. I'm priced out of F1 racing but I get on with my life. At least there's Cockatrice for Magic.

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Standard has never interested me at all, so no, I'm not incinerating benjamins buying cards for that money pit of a format. The point I'm trying to make is that with Duals at 200+ there are plenty of long time players out there that have to choose between mortgage payments and fucking cardboard. Do I eat this week, or do I pick up a Force of Will (which is a perfectly reprintable card)? I'm happy to hear that your collection is deep enough that you don't have these concerns because you had a sick read on the legacy card market at the right time, but if things keep tending upward at the rate they are even you will be priced out someday.

Magic cards are quickly becoming a luxury item, and I'm not sure that's a good thing for those of us that want to play with them.

I haven't posted in a long time really.


I just figured I'd chime in and see how things were going. It's interesting to read the exact same arguments on "the sky is falling" vs "omg these prices keep going up" after several years.


Somehow I think your investments are safe.


I have been cashing out over the course of those years, mainly just because I'm 42 now and it just feels weird being the oldest in the room not counting the store owner. All of my friends have long moved on to other endeavors and even I am considering retiring soon. I love this game and have a lot of good memories with it. I hope all of you continue to do the same and enjoy the eternal formats for a long time to come. It seems to me after years of being "one of those speculators" who played quite regularly, the format is extremely stable. Maybe you'll run into me in a local store playing just for the heck of it. I kept Imperial Painter for laughs because I love making the guy who went Fetch, Trop, Delver just cringe when I pyroblast it game 1.

Cheers all : )

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Originally Posted by dahcmai

Somehow I think your investments are safe.

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Once the bubble bursts (which is only a matter of time), most Legacy-only cards are going down as well, except for staples like Duals etc which are going to stay high. E.g. you can play the format without owning S&T, but try to play Legacy without a manabase (well, aside from Manaless Dredge).

@bruizar: I don't think the government would ever give a damn about Magic unless it's somehow involved in money laundring or whatever, which in itself is rather unlikely.

The two most likely cases how the bubble bursts are:

a) SCG dropping Legacy from the Open in some way to make more room for Modern or
b) the Chinese step up their game and flood the market with high-quality fakes.

a) is probably going to happen at some point in the future. b) is way harder to predict, but considering how prices rise across the board, it's going to attract more and more scum until people go professional with it.

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Originally Posted by Davran

Standard has never interested me at all, so no, I'm not incinerating benjamins buying cards for that money pit of a format. The point I'm trying to make is that with Duals at 200+ there are plenty of long time players out there that have to choose between mortgage payments and fucking cardboard. Do I eat this week, or do I pick up a Force of Will (which is a perfectly reprintable card)? I'm happy to hear that your collection is deep enough that you don't have these concerns because you had a sick read on the legacy card market at the right time, but if things keep tending upward at the rate they are even you will be priced out someday.

Magic cards are quickly becoming a luxury item, and I'm not sure that's a good thing for those of us that want to play with them.

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I'm sorry but if you have to choose between paying a mortgage/ eating and buying cards then you probably shouldn't have any hobbies, let alone Magic.

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Originally Posted by Giants1990

I'm sorry but if you have to choose between paying a mortgage/ eating and buying cards then you probably shouldn't have any hobbies, let alone Magic.

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When staples cost as much as fine art, you'd be forced to choose too, unless you were born rich or have some sick $15k / month job. In case nobody noticed yet, the price of cardboard has increased by an absurd percentage DESPITE the fact that we're in the worst economic downturn ever.

Quite true, but this is also because the people who make lots of money tend to do well whenever. Economic downturns don't REALLY matter in a lot of industries. People still need open heart surgery, legal defense, dental implants, etc. Certain investments also have been doing really well, sector dependent of course.

-Matt

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Originally Posted by bruizar

When staples cost as much as fine art, you'd be forced to choose too, unless you were born rich or have some sick $15k / month job. In case nobody noticed yet, the price of cardboard has increased by an absurd percentage DESPITE the fact that we're in the worst economic downturn ever.

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I'm unsure of the point you are trying to make with the fine art reference. My point was that if you honestly had to choose between eating and paying rent and other real life needs or buying Magic cards, whatever the price, you need to take a look at yourself and get your priorities straight.

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Originally Posted by Giants1990

I'm unsure of the point you are trying to make with the fine art reference. My point was that if you honestly had to choose between eating and paying rent and other real life needs or buying Magic cards, whatever the price, you need to take a look at yourself and get your priorities straight.

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My point is that magic has reached a point where adults with decent jobs and decent incomes are forced to ask themselves exactly that question you proposed.

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Originally Posted by bruizar

This is a good point. I can imagine the following scenarios (some more likely than others):
1) Mostly the fear of reprints. Original foils are quiet resistant to reprints though. I think this effect is limited though.
2) Support for the prices evaporates, similar to how the Bitcoin lost its validity as a container of value.
3) Prices stay the same, but the liquidity of the market freezes entirely, since no one is willing to buy the cards for the asking price, but sellers aren't willing to take their loss and decide to stick with their cards. This leads to the slow demise of the community as more and more people get children, etc.
4) Transparency puts an end to the illusion of scarcity. Leaks of actual print runs appear. Articles about the number of staples in circulation contrasted against the number of players are written. The identification of the main card hoarders (Such as this alpha hoarder list attempt: http://classic.magictraders.com/ubb/...ML/025627.html) or this graded alpha hoarder http://registry.beckett.com/set-deta...-hoard_2295948. And the market cornering practices of Scarcitygames are no longer tolerated. And IRS scrutiny against the main traders in the game happens.
5) Government regulation against unknowns in chance-games is implemented like it was in Japan (kompu gacha system): http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...nt-cracks-down

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value – zero.” (Voltaire, 1694-1778)

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This is pretty thorough! I only have two things to add.

I am interested in your second point: "Support for the prices evaporates". I wonder what the upper ceiling is. As in, when will people say, 'I'm not paying that, the price is wrong'? Can you think of other instances where this happened on the hobby market?

As for your fourth point, "Transparency puts an end to the illusion of scarcity": if it didn't work for the Marxists, it won't work for MTG. That is to say, even if scarcity is 'revealed' to be an illusion (which I think everyone knows it is), we still ideologically buy into the game.

I think its interesting that people speculate that if it costs X amount of Money, they hobby, game or sport (or a combination) as MtG could be classified, will die.


Why hasnt horseback riding died? its way more expensive. Or powerboating? (or cocaine and Hookers?)


This may be the transition of the a part of the game from being a relatively cheap hobby, like soccer, to a more expensive one.

All the middleschoolers can still play standard.

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Originally Posted by phonics

With prices where they are and Wizards' ignorance towards the issue...

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Wizards is far from ignorant about the price of Legacy staples. IMO they want Legacy prices to be absurd. It gives people the idea that MtG can be seen as an investment, and encourages people to buy lots of cards now, since someday they'll be worth big money.

Most of the arguments the doomsday prophets are throwing out there mean modern is going down also. Goyf will be north of $200 and Dark Confidant will be $100 and Liliana will be $110. You could argue WotC is more incentivized to re-print modern staples but the effect will trickle into making legacy more affordable if that happens.

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Originally Posted by nedleeds

Most of the arguments the doomsday prophets are throwing out there mean modern is going down also. Goyf will be north of $200 and Dark Confidant will be $100 and Liliana will be $110. You could argue WotC is more incentivized to re-print modern staples but the effect will trickle into making legacy more affordable if that happens.

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But any perceived increase in affordability in Legacy due to reprints will be offset by increased demand on staples whose supply is fixed. If people are buying Goyfs and Lilianas for Legacy, they'll probably need Bayous and Tropical islands and Underground Seas too.

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Originally Posted by easysantiago

This is pretty thorough! I only have two things to add.

I am interested in your second point: "Support for the prices evaporates". I wonder what the upper ceiling is. As in, when will people say, 'I'm not paying that, the price is wrong'? Can you think of other instances where this happened on the hobby market?

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I think it heavily depends on the card. In my book, invoke prejudice at $150 is downright ridiculous. I already reached that point.

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As for your fourth point, "Transparency puts an end to the illusion of scarcity": if it didn't work for the Marxists, it won't work for MTG. That is to say, even if scarcity is 'revealed' to be an illusion (which I think everyone knows it is), we still ideologically buy into the game.

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I'm afraid so.

Sure, but it's all going down at that point, especially if you buy into Modern target audience being younger, less affluent people. The marginal difference between modern and legacy isn't huge over the course of a 1-2 year invesment (e.g. 5-10 duals).

WotC reprining 10 fetches would go a long way for both formats. Here's hoping they print some fucking stone hideous new bordered Wayne A. Reynolds art fetches.

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Originally Posted by nedleeds

Sure, but it's all going down at that point

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Except that it's not. Both formats are making significant gains in popularity. This may mean that we need to reevaluate who the actual audience for these formats is. I think Phelix is right, and MtG (specifically non-rotating formats) is just transitioning into being a higher costed hobby. I think it's fun enough to justify the steep price of entry, and apparently there are a lot of people who agree.

It's pretty interesting how RL staples shoot up across the board.

Sneak Attack is about 80$ now.

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Originally Posted by Phelix

I think its interesting that people speculate that if it costs X amount of Money, they hobby, game or sport (or a combination) as MtG could be classified, will die.


Why hasnt horseback riding died? its way more expensive. Or powerboating? (or cocaine and Hookers?)


This may be the transition of the a part of the game from being a relatively cheap hobby, like soccer, to a more expensive one.

All the middleschoolers can still play standard.

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I agree with this. And it's also why I think that it will be hard to bring prices down from now on, even with reprints.

Speaking of hobbies (unrelated story coming up), ironically, part of the reason why I decided to invest into magic in the first place was because how much more expensive the other hobbies I wanted to get in were for me. Back then, I had the choice of keep playing soccer (which already costed me a over a thousand dollars a year in terms of transport, equipment, inscription, competitions, mostly in other Canadian cities, and sometimes in the US, and bursaries were bullshit unless you play hockey), or go and get into paintball, which I loved, but was also relatively expensive where I live (you don't go back to renting equipment when you tasted real equipment and that you want to go play at least once a week). In the end, I did not want to play soccer after I started university as a career in sports wasn't my goal, and paintball was really expensive for someone getting in university (especially that it was far as hell, and you have to go in with a team). So after that, when I got into legacy with ANT and it was a few hundreds (back then), I told myself back then that it really wasn't as bad as my other discarded options.

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Originally Posted by Barook

It's pretty interesting how RL staples shoot up across the board.

Sneak Attack is about 80$ now.

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Sneak Attack isn't RL, but yeah... All the staples seem to be on the rise.

So Volcanic Island and Tundra both shot up to $220+ overnight?

*facepalm*

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Originally Posted by Phelix

I think its interesting that people speculate that if it costs X amount of Money, they hobby, game or sport (or a combination) as MtG could be classified, will die.


Why hasnt horseback riding died? its way more expensive. Or powerboating? (or cocaine and Hookers?)


This may be the transition of the a part of the game from being a relatively cheap hobby, like soccer, to a more expensive one.

All the middleschoolers can still play standard.

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There are a couple important differences here though. Horseback riding and powerboating are both individual endeavors, they don't benefit from a large participation base like Magic does. Actually they'd probably be hurt by it, I can only imagine how long it would take to get through a 4000-person dressage event (side note: never date a girl that's into horses, they are insane).

On the other hand, if even the biggest Legacy events started drawing only 150-200 players, I think that could discourage new players from joining the format. I could be wrong, but I think part of what keeps the game popular is it's popularity. I'm sure there's some economic term for that type of momentum.

I think part of what makes eternal popular is it's exclusivity and not having to play with complete novices and infants.

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Originally Posted by Richard Cheese

There are a couple important differences here though. Horseback riding and powerboating are both individual endeavors, they don't benefit from a large participation base like Magic does. Actually they'd probably be hurt by it, I can only imagine how long it would take to get through a 4000-person dressage event (side note: never date a girl that's into horses, they are insane).

On the other hand, if even the biggest Legacy events started drawing only 150-200 players, I think that could discourage new players from joining the format. I could be wrong, but I think part of what keeps the game popular is it's popularity. I'm sure there's some economic term for that type of momentum.

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Also, I always thought that powerboating uses some high-end technology, and horses are living mamals, quite expensive to acquire and feed, etc. My cards are made of cardboard, no spaceship tech, and I don't need oat, too, not even for Tarpan. They could be cheaper, there's nothing inherently expensive in them.
Thinking of it, I'd love to have a horse. Must be nice.

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Originally Posted by nedleeds

I think part of what makes eternal popular is it's exclusivity and not having to play with complete novices and infants.

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With USea for 250 dollars, you may pretty soon play with dame de voyage exlusively.

I can't wait to attract a whole new crowd of Veblen shoppers to Legacy :laugh:

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Originally Posted by Bed Decks Palyer

My cards are made of cardboard, no spaceship tech, and I don't need oat, too, not even for Tarpan.

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If you feed Tarpan regularly, you should gain more life when it dies.

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Originally Posted by nedleeds

I think part of what makes eternal popular is it's exclusivity and not having to play with complete novices and infants.

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Less the exclusivity, but more of the second point for me. I hate playing vs children, and I hate playing vs people that don't understand even simple stack interactions and people with extreme budget decks.

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Originally Posted by nedleeds

I think part of what makes eternal popular is it's exclusivity and not having to play with complete novices and infants.

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You got it right on the infants.

But complete novices? Eh, I would say the average PTQ grinder is more skilled at Magic than a Legacy/Vintage player.

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Originally Posted by nedleeds

I think part of what makes eternal popular is it's exclusivity and not having to play with complete novices and infants.

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Sounds like something I'd read on TMD circa 2004.

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Originally Posted by TsumiBand

If you feed Tarpan regularly, you should gain more life when it dies.

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OK, I'll give you a golf clap for this one.

Lol ... price of foil counterbalance on MKM. Have to sell mine now

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Lol ... price of foil counterbalance on MKM. Have to sell mine now

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Lol, nice find. I still have a foil set of my own, mmm sweet moneyz. But indeed, geeting that money is difficult to.

I feel like it's worth noting that NM Alpha Lotus is up to 10K on SCG. First time a non-misprint, card has reached that level in retail pricing as far as I know.