But if you want to slow the game down a bit, that means you're having trouble with the speed of the game, right? Which means you're losing? Then why would you want to drop a Standstill?
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But if you want to slow the game down a bit, that means you're having trouble with the speed of the game, right? Which means you're losing? Then why would you want to drop a Standstill?
Kicks: Why would the game being slowed down be bad for us? Part of the strength of Dreadstill is its ability to transition between quick combo deck, and grinding control deck. It is quite comfortable in both roles. One of the primary misconceptions about this deck that I have seen is that too many people are distracted by the Dreadnoughts. Yes, they are big and yes they can finish the game very quickly. But the rest of the deck is quite capable of functioning like a long-term control deck.
Now, for Predict vs Standstill. I don't think there is much left to say. My own recommendation is that Standstill is much stronger -- but that is a function of quite a bit of testing. You can make a logical argument for either card, and neither card is really wrong. There's no point in debating it much further; why not just sleeve up both cards one at a time and try them both?
I minorly disagree with Atog Lord. The deck usually lacks any kind of removal outside of EE, meaning a single resolved threat shifts the deck into stall-mode and we're looking to seek out the combo quickly. A control deck that's looking to grind out the game usually contains at the very least four StP and some number of sweepers.
There are a variety of reasons why Standstill is preferable to Predict.
For starters, Predict demands that we have Brainstorm or Top in place before we cast Predict. Standstill does not. In many ways Predict is more difficult to utilize effectively because if we don't have one of those set-up cards, or worse if our opponent interferes with the casting of one, then our Predict becomes exceptionally weak. This provides a compounding series of problems which I will outline below.
1) A turn 2 Predict is uncommon while a turn 2 Standstill is frequent. Even if we have Top, and successfully resolve it turn 1, we are not going to be casting Predict turn 2. Standstill is a play that is going to happen consistently earlier than Predict despite having the same mana cost.
2) Disruption of some sort can easily interfere with our combo. Suppose a black-based deck like the ones seen in recent SCG top 8's casts a Thoughtseize. They see Top and Predict. They were going to take Top anyway...
3) Brainstorm. When we want to cast Predict, we need to Brainstorm first. For any of us with decent Brainstorm etiquette, we know this is a terrible line of play. On the other hand, casting a Brainstorm after a Standstill is nearly unmatched in digging power. Compare these two simple scenarios:
BS -> Predict
See 3 cards
Net 1
Filter 1
Standstill -> BS
See 6 cards
Net 2
Filter 2
Brainstorm is a great card. But Playing it effectively is an art. When Predict forces us to Brainstorm at the wrong time, it is a crime and will severely hurt our ability to draw cards, dig for cards, fix our cards, and ultimately win games.
I agree with basically everything you're saying, Rico. Playing Brainstorm suboptimally in order to use Predict is bad; in that scenario I would probably just hold my Predict. You're also right that Predict + library manipulation often costs a total of 3 mana unless you have Jace out, so a turn 2 Predict (barring an E Tutor from your opponent) is rarely possible.
I think the root of our disagreement may be the fact that Predict and Standstill do not fill exactly the same role, even though they are both draw spells that cost 1U. Pigeonholing Predict into the role that Standstill used to play is not going to convince anyone of its power.
Like you said, it is often the best play to cast Standstill on turn 2, whereas Predict shines in the late game when board positions have already developed (i.e your opponent has creatures and you have a Top) and you need that extra card advantage to take control of the game.
If we're talking specifically about a replacement for Standstill, I think everyone should have their eyes on Dark Confidant. Like Standstill, running out Confidant on turn 2 is often the correct play, and both cards provide a huge early advantage.
In the current Uwb Dreadstill list I play, I am using 4 Confidants for the early advantage, and 2 Predict for the late game boost, and it is very fluid.
Would you like to post this list of yours?Quote:
Originally Posted by keys
I am currently having some thoughts whether or not its worth running 4 dreadnoughts, i.e cutting some and replacing with other creatures. I know how incredulous this must sound to some but with the current meta that is basically SPRAWLING with creature and above all, artifact and enchantment hate as a consequence of the abundance of survival decks, I just find myself boarding out the noughts regardless of what match up. Hence, I alter my deck completely with peacekeeper instead of noughts, turning it into some jacestill/CBtop hybrid... lol
This, not to mention setting up Standstill is easier with the deck's strong early permission suite + factory. If you really wanted to Predict with Top/Brainstorm, it boils down to a total of {3U}/{1UU} mana spent respectively, which only nets 1 cards (sometimes 'scrying' is suboptimal). Now imagine the same situation Standstill + either Top/Brainstorm, you will net 2 cards and dig another 3 cards, for a total of {3U}/{1UU} respectively. Not to mention Standstill allows the Dreadstill player to develop his manabase IF opponents refused to crack it early. Now, imagine both situations WITHOUT secondary cards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rico Suave
As far as I'm concerned, Predict's instant speed + not pumping opposing goyfs +1/+1 does not outweigh the raw card advantage and super-digging synergy with Top/Brainstorm that Standstill provides. What if you HAD to counter a spell and had no mana to predict? Then you wasted both tempo and resource management. When I play Standstill, I KNOW That the situation si going to benefit me regardless if they cracked it immediately or not, i.e. I have full knowledge that my tapped-out resource management is still beneficial when I made the decision to play Standstill. And if they don't crack it, I will have mana open to win any permission war with the raw cards I draw from Standstill. At least, I want MORE cards, to either control the game, or protect my Dreadnought. Standstill + Top/Brainstorm to me already seems stronger than Predict + Top/Brainstorm, and Standstill has another added synergy with Factories, so the nature of Standstill fits better in the deck than Predict. And I've tested Predict due to displeasure with Standstill, I thought it was strong until I realized that I was convincing myself it was better than standstill due to my bad experiences with Standstill. The mind games you can play with yourself heh.
I posted it a few pages back, but I'll copy it again. [PMP]Krevvy shared a list that was very similar as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackehehe
4 Dark Confidant
3 Phyrexian Dreadnought
2 Trinket Mage
4 Force of Will
4 Brainstorm
3 Spell Snare
2 Daze
2 Predict
4 Stifle
1 Trickbind
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Counterbalance
3 Sensei's Divining Top
2 Engineered Explosives
4 Wasteland
1 Academy Ruins
4 Flooded Strand
3 Polluted Delta
3 Underground Sea
2 Tundra
3 Island
1 Plains
Sideboard:
3 Peacekeeper
2 Perish
3 Swords to Plowshares
3 Spell Pierce
1 Vindicate
1 Pithing Needle
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Relic of Progenitus
The 3 Nought, 2 Mage, 4 Stifle, 1 Trickbind combo works very well, and Confidants fill your hand with them fast. Bobby also acts as a lightning rod, sucking up removal that would otherwise target your Nought. Of course if I have a counter I will definitely protect Confidant, because a few turns of his upkeep will put you ahead very fast.
Sometimes your opponent will answer all your threats, leaving you with just a Top and a stale board, and then Predict really speeds up the topdeck. I'm playing 3 Spell Snare/2 Daze because of the popularity of Survival (although I played the same formation back in the days of UGR Dreadstill and it was just as good then). I'm considering some Counterspells, but I haven't tried them out yet.
I'm currently running 4 Wasteland to capitalize on the mana denial option with Stifles, and it's really good to have against opposing Mishra's/Mutavaults as well as Maze of Ith. Academy Ruins is there for the EE lock which is the deck's only maindeck removal, but it can also dig up a Nought if you need it, and recurring Crypt is game over for Dredge.
I secon Rich, this discussion is unecessary: Standstill is proven and powerful, the correct metagame response has already been taken by going down to 3 Still and adding other ways to gain card advantage. Just (extensively) test Predict and tell us your results.
Two notes which hasnt been mentioned till now:
- Predict is basically a two card combo with SDT to gain a little card advantage. Blind Predicts are bad as they are with BS (see Metalwalkers) post. Personallyi would hate to use BS in combination with Predict as i either want to shuffle bad cards away or configure my top cards for CB. I would consider Predict a strong option in decks starting with 4 SDT and at least a couple of Ponders, but not in Dreadstill.
- They are some matchups were Standstill is above average powerful, far better than Bob in some cases. Black aggro control or board control with comes to my mind, basically decks with lots of removal, but not that many threats of none-blue nature.
Also I value Standstill quite high against Countertop, especially against recent lists which sometimes just play Goyf and Clique as beaters. As a sidenote a few pages back someone mentioned that he thinks that the best strategy against Zoo is to try to chain Standstills... given this was a different version of the deck, but it should state the value of the card imo.
Well, I went down to 3 Standstill about a year ago when Zoo became the DTB. Now that Zoo has been supplanted by Vengevine Survival, and partially due to the printing of Spell Pierce and Coralhelm, Merfolk has become a huge force. It's a new metagame now that is not friendly to Standstill.Quote:
Originally Posted by deadlock
3 SDT, 2 Trinket Mage (to get SDT), 4 Brainstorm, 2 Jace. That's 11 methods to set up Predict, and that doesn't count the ways in which your opponent can reveal his top card. It is much more than a two card combo; it flows very naturally with the game plan.Quote:
- Predict is basically a two card combo with SDT to gain a little card advantage. Blind Predicts are bad as they are with BS (see Metalwalkers) post. Personallyi would hate to use BS in combination with Predict as i either want to shuffle bad cards away or configure my top cards for CB. I would consider Predict a strong option in decks starting with 4 SDT and at least a couple of Ponders, but not in Dreadstill.
Is mono black control that popular in your meta? I see a healthy number of Landstill decks in my meta, and Standstill is pretty poor in that matchup, considering that they play more man lands, Wastelands, and potentially DoJ. Besides, Bob is insane versus most things black because Snuff Out and Ghastly Demise can't touch him.Quote:
- They are some matchups were Standstill is above average powerful, far better than Bob in some cases. Black aggro control or board control with comes to my mind, basically decks with lots of removal, but not that many threats of none-blue nature.
Also I value Standstill quite high against Countertop, especially against recent lists which sometimes just play Goyf and Clique as beaters. As a sidenote a few pages back someone mentioned that he thinks that the best strategy against Zoo is to try to chain Standstills... given this was a different version of the deck, but it should state the value of the card imo.
Predict also has its uses against CounterTop, such as milling a flipped Top. Funny you mention Clique, because he has a way of turning a Standstill into a 4-for-0 in your opponent's favor. I remember when it was mentioned, but I still find it hard to believe that "chaining Standstills" is even a legitimate strategy.
Anyway, it does seem like time to move on, since I'm seeing many of the same arguments rehashed. I'll let you know how things go at the next tournament I attend.
I've found that this is the best way to defeat Zoo with Dreadstill. You can often land a Standstill in the first few turns, in a position that Zoo can't break through. Using either Top or drawing into a Factory, you will force Zoo to break that Standstill. Then you can establish a Dreadnought with counter backup, a Counterbalance, or another Standstill to continue. In any case, you're quite often in a favorable position. I'm not saying that Zoo is a great matchup, but Counterbalance does help a lot.Quote:
Well, I went down to 3 Standstill about a year ago when Zoo became the DTB...I still find it hard to believe that "chaining Standstills" is even a legitimate strategy.
On the matter of Merfolk. Sure, Standstill is bad here. But so is Predict. You'll either resolve a quite Dreadnought and win, or you'll lose. You don't have time Game I to set up a worthwhile Predict. And game II, you'd board out Standstill or Predict anyway.
And do you really want to count Jace for setting up Predict? Making your tiny draw spell better when you've already landed Jace and are not needing to bounce something right away is very much win-more.
Can you explain what you mean by this? Even when you're on the play, how do you expect to consistently land a Standstill early against a deck that plays at least 10 1-drops?Quote:
Originally Posted by The Atog Lord
I agree that Counterbalance is key.
You counter zoo's second turn threat or if it's a nacatl you can go turn 1 island per se turn 2 they try to drop goyf you snare it then that's followed up by standstill on turn 2 with you at 17 life they have a 3/3 nacatl presumably and you have an island and factory. This is where standstill shines; you trade your factory for their nacatl then you wait until they either break the standstill or you draw into another factory to put pressure on them to break the standstill. The above scenario will happen often because spell snare can be any non daze counterspell like FoW works to counter the goyf. The only problem with this scenario is if the opponent drops a steppe lynx turn 1 then it will eat your factory alive but that's the only one drop that gives us problems loam lion, nactal, and kird ape have nothing on a 3/3 factory. If they bolt the factory that's fine because they just broke standstill and you can likely protect the factory with the cards you drew.
Or they just wait until you have a full hand and bolt you in your end step? Honestly, I think Standstill's greatest strength is that people still do not how to properly play against it.
At least my personal experience with Predict was even with its synergy with Brainstorm/Top, if I don't have Top, Predict just simply isn't worth playing. Playing a Brainstorm following up with a Top results in 2 cards being used simply to net 1 card (you can value the benefit of scrying a irrelevant card' but most tight lists seldom have irrelevant cards, you have fetches for 'scrying' purposes with Brainstorm/Top).
The Predicts without Top are very weak, even with conjunction with Brainstorm, because in setting this up, it's 1UU net 1 card. Standstill when being cast, will always net you 2 cards, and if not cracked immediately, will net you 2 cards with mana open for responses aka, huge tempo loss for opponents when you have mana open to counter their spells when they crack Standstills. When you resolve a standstill and they crack immediately, you net 2 cards for 1U, still seems good for me.
The ONLY argument that Predict has over Standstill is: Standstill is sometimes a dead card, but Predict never is. This I fully agree. But in arguing which is more powerful in drawing in GENERAL and over the course of the game, there is really nothing else in the format that outdraws Standstill (Bob doesn't count since it's just as situational if not more protecting Bob). Bob doesn't take the slots of Standstill, so there's no point in discussion Bob v.s. Standstill. For the people who are still convinced Predict > Standstill, I can personally say that this is true in a Merfolk/Goblin dominant meta, otherwise Standstill is simply better against any other deck without exception. I can always confidently drop a Standstill against Zoo and know that I'll take at most 10 damage before I draw my 3 cards. Assuming the WORST scenario where I never drew my manlands against Zoo's Wild Nacatl, then Standstill has still bought me the 4-6 turns to sculpt my hand, where I'll EOT crack my STandstill, drop my Counterbalance engine, and deal with the board to which they will be in a bad position unless they have Grip. Standstill is all about building up to a good position, it's not about resolving it in a favorable position, but it also serves as BOTH a card draw and the establisher of a good board position given the scenarios your opponent has to react to it.
I currently play 3 in Landstill (don't really play Dreadstill although I've piloted it before and probably will pick it up once in awhile in my meta now that it's shifting towards heavy combo, the stifles and counterbalance >>> LAndstill against combo).
On the topic of Merfolk, it bears repeating a few key points that have been previously mentioned.
Standstill isn't too hot here, but neither is Predict. It is correct to board out Standstill in this match, but we came to the conclusion that boarding out Predict is also correct. So I find it difficult to believe that Merfolk is a reason to play Predict over Standstill.
Furthermore, what strategies are successful against Merfolk? Well, there seem to be 2 lines of attack Dreadstill can execute which have an advantage over what Merfolk is doing:
-Present a 12/12 early and outrace the opponent
-Secure a Peacekeeper and protect it
For the purpose of playing an early 12/12, it is imperative to play 4 Dreadnoughts. In fact, I would wager that somewhere around 95%+ of Dreadstill's game 1 wins against Merfolk revolve around this line of play.
Rico I understand what you mean, and I think I didn't phrase/argue correctly but what I'm saying that Standstills ain't hot against Merfolks, which we all know, so an alternative e.g. Predict maybe considered running over it, and since the meta has quite a number of Merfolk decks, it should replace Standstill.
But I am fully agreeing with you here,the Standstillsthe Standstill SLOTS should be boarded out because you cannot afford to board out anything else against Merfolks. You need to keep your permission, sweepers, Dreadnought unchanged while bringing in the hate cards.
EDIT: So Predict would be bad too since it is technically a Standstill SLOT, and these slots need to be boarded out for answers while the other MD (Permissions/Noughts) cannot be touched since they are relevant to winning the game against Merfolks.
And Brad and I are both saying that while Standstill is not good against Merfolk, Predict is also bad. If you're spending your first three turns setting up and using Predict, you're probably losing anyway.
This is the list my friend was using the other night, and placed second, only losing to Goblins:
This is taken straight out of the email he sent, and I don't feel like editing for capitals and grammatical errors:
*Quote*
x3 Nought
x4 Stifle
x2 Trickbind
x4 FoW
x4 Daze
x4 Brainstorm
x2 EE
x3 Counterbalance
x3 S. top
x4 Dark confidant
x4 Tarmogoyf
x2 Trinket mage
x3 U sea
x3 Trop
x2 island
x1 forest
x3 wasteland
x3 mishras factory
x4 misty rainforest
x2 polluted delta
i would like to put a 2-3 spell snares back in but cant find room, and i would also like to put in a 4th wasteland because right now i'm playing this as a tempo deck with goyf/confidant that has an oops smash with the nought. i try to stifle all fetches, waste non basics and then daze/fow important stuff.
SB still in the works
x2 BeB
x2 trygon predator
x3 krosan grip
x3 smother
x1 pithing needle
x3 tormods crypt
x1 ??
*End quote*
He did really well with the deck, and it looks like it was a blast to play. Critique it at your leisure.
-Matt
Looks similar to the deck which placed 4th at GP: Bochum's sideevent.
-1 Nought, -4 Snare, -2 Jace 2.0 => 3 CB, + 3 Top, +1 land all the while adding Factories.
As I am considering trying UBG Thresh at the moment, I am a bit attracted to both of the lists. UGB Tempo contains targeted removal, though, and Spell Snare is too important and strong to pass in my opinion.
I am also not sure about those Factories - are they needed? I am currently playing NLT and am growing to dislike them - not doing much, providing colorless mana for a colorhungry deck and merely synergising at all with the rest of the deck. Cutting the Factories and adding a 4th Wasteland and 1 or 2 fetchlands might be better without Standstill or CoW. On the other hand, thex provide cheap blockers and are nearly immune to opposing planeswalkers.