[Primer/Deck] Nic Fit

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Originally Posted by Arianrhod

As for Jace, we're kind of getting there with Slaughter Games -- that card has always done a great job of neutering Miracles, but it comes at the cost of needing a red source. You have to play this awful nonbasic Forest in the deck and it feels awful when you draw it. An option that deals with Jace effectively that isn't red would go a long way towards fixing the problem. Way, way back in the day, we used to use Academy Rector grabbing Faith's Fetters for the task, but that's pretty terrible now with the legend rule change a couple years back.

Jace and Delver are the problem children. If those individual cards can be solved in a way whereby one isn't antithetical to the other, we'll be in great shape, I think.

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I have never had a problem with Miracles, sure it's a tough matchup but it's one I usually win too. Maybe it's because the local players aren't very good (I'm not really sure) or maybe it's their build (usually a Venser/Mentor/Jace win condition build). One thing I notice is that you're only running 2 tops, run (and resolve) more. Top really takes the wind out of Jace's sails. They can only effectively 0 and minus with him on the board and that's much easier to get through because he'll either minus to death after a couple turns (just costing you some mana, or best case rebuying your ETB triggers) or his 0 enables a Terminus, all the while you've used your top to defend multiple good threats. If they minus, stick to just one threat on the board to make them keep minusing, it actively makes their Terminus bad.

Also, as was mentioned in the previous post by I think sdematt, a wide variety of cards is good. Just attack them from lots of different angles with low numbers of a lot of different cards. It's unpredictable for them and all accomplishes roughly the same thing.

Which Delver list are you referring to? I mainly play against Grixis, UR, and BUG, very little against RUG but I've found the trick in them all is the same, you just want to get a lot of card advantage. Accumulating resources is key, we can usually be the beat down deck in the match which means forcing the opponent into a control role. Make them focus on answers while generating more resources and you'll eventually get something they can't answer. Also, strongly prioritize fetching basics in the early turns so the only thing that's going to slow your development is a Wasteland on Arbor or a Stifle on a fetch.

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Originally Posted by Arianrhod

-) Having a plethora of flying, lifelinking angels was pretty great. Warden suggested that I cut the two Rhinos for two Baneslayers, which opened some sideboard room and made me especially cancerous to Delver, which I am always a fan of. I felt like I saw the angels a lot more with a 4-pack, and they always overperformed.

-) Speaking of overperforming, Dromoka. Dromoka is great vs basically anything blue. As a meta call, she was definitely correct, and I'll be looking to run her in the maindeck at Columbus for the same reason. There are certainly plenty of times where I think she'll be better in the sideboard, but that's firmly a meta call.

-) Sakura continues to overperform. Sakura's the janitor -- you never notice him, you never respect him, but he always cleans up your messes.

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@Baneslayers: You're welcome :)
To be fair, you had 2 in the list and 2 Baneslayer in the SB. Just run Baneslayers at that point. I think Angel-Fit works at Mythic. Half the players fully know we're running them but they still get there.

@Dromoka: Bitch is ugly af but my god blue has NO IDEA what to do with it.
@Sakura: I betrayed him and the deck sucked. He really is amazing in the deck. I wish others played him.

Hard removal pkg for Mythic should be something close to
3 Deed
3 Decay
2 Path
1 Toxic
1 Vind
/10

My experience with Abeyance is real. The card shuts down Miracle based cards and keeps a Jace or top from activating that turn. Also, 1 Vexing Shusher in the board? It dies to StP, but when it forces through a key GSZ, Rhino, or PW, it's back breaking.


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Edit:
I've been having success with this list against Lands and Miracles: 4 Tops is not too many. Whenever you have more than you need, just draw something then flush it away, or, tap to draw, hold priority, then blow it up with Deed. Tireless Tracker is really good. It's either card advantage or a decoy. He also comes back pretty well with Meren. I know most don't but main deck Qasali. He almost always has a relevant target, and he pumps your EXPERIENCE! plus exalted can shorten the game by a turn or two.
Cheers guys, great stuff from everybody over the past week!

1 Courser of Kruphix
1 Deathrite Shaman
1 Eternal Witness
1 Meren of Clan Nel Toth
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Tireless Tracker
4 Siege Rhino
4 Veteran Explorer

4 Sensei's Divining Top
2 Pernicious Deed
3 Abrupt Decay
4 Path to Exile
1 Vindicate
4 Green Sun's Zenith
4 Cabal Therapy

1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis

2 Bayou
2 Savannah
1 Scrubland
3 Forest
2 Plains
2 Swamp
2 Phyrexian Tower
1 Karakas
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Windswept Heath

2 Deathrite Shaman
2 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Glissa, the Traitor
2 Abeyance
1 Golgari Charm
3 Surgical Extraction
3 Thoughtseize

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Originally Posted by Ralf

@ Thread:

I can't beg you for trying abeyance against Miracle...
The card has proven to be valuable as you can deny their terminus attempt and threaten their life total.
Not to mention that getting to 6 mana to play it again, gives you plenty of time.
Coupled with surgical extraction, you can mess up pretty well with all their miracle spell.

Sure the powerlevel is not matching SLG but abeyance is far better against combo deck.

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So I went 4-1 on a league tonight, jammed 2 Abeyance in my side. It seemed quite amazing each time I drew it against 2 storm, 1 miracles matches. One point miracles had a Jace out and I used it to cantrip and shut off Jace for a turn. Against storm, I drew into my single Trinisphere from the side, played my 2nd land, and then Abeyance'd on their turn to ensure the sphere wouldn't get discarded out of my hand.

My only loss was to Jeff Hoogland on Big Red, I didn't think to include the Abeyances until siding for game 3 - figure he could go to play a Seething Song or something and I could fire it off in response. I don't expect to win that type of match anyhow.

Other news, Tireless Tracker continues to perform. Completely shut down a stoneblade player with Sigarda + my own equipment game 1, then Tracker in next game made 3 clues before dying for an effective 4-for-1 after I cashed them all in the next few turns, finding my Tsunami to shut him down.

I'll keep testing my own Abzan brew but those two cards have been great so far.

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Originally Posted by Ricardio

I am gone for a weekend and shit like this happens....Now, I'm reading through what looks like a damn math experiment gone wrong with all this belcher esque analysis. I believe over quantification will only lead to frustration. Nic fit is a labor of love, don't fall into madness over making the numbers perfect.

Also, Echelon, I am disappoint.

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One can cry like a bitch when losing to Miracles or one can try to do something about it. The former will not change the outcome of the Miracles MU, the latter will most definetely not make it worse. Now humor me and explain why the former should call the latter disappointing? You disappoint me man, sticking your head in the sand and hoping for things to somehow magically change in your favor. How is that more useful than what we're trying to do? Look man, this is a labor of love, why do you think we're putting so much effort into it? Heck, look at it as you would at a relationship. Sometimes in a relationship you've got to work on the issues you and your significant other have. That's what we're doing, rather than take the easy route and run off to the corner whore.

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Originally Posted by rubblekill

I will +1 this post because I am a lazy person with little time to post a comment about this magnificently in-depth (as much as convoluted and quite confusing) analysis that you beautiful people have been doing recently.
I wholeheartedly agree Ric.

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Doesn't say a word for a week, opens his mouth the minute another screams disappointment. You sir, are a badass.

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Originally Posted by Koby

In evaluation of Courser, anecdotally, how many times did he simply reveal the top of your deck without providing value?
Perhaps for this deck, with its ability to thin the deck of lands, his value is lessened compared to other Junk/Rock decks where there is a higher concentration of lands in deck.

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Apart from the obvious drawing lands from the top, the most value I usually get out of it is when it shows me that something I really need is on the top of my library when I'm about to crack a fetch/do whatever to mess that up. That has won me games.

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Originally Posted by Tao

Even talking about cutting Sigarda is retarded. The only reason why you dont play more than one is because you have GSZ to tutor for her and she is unkillable she is legendary so you cant have two in play.

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Read, man. I was talking about Sigarda maybe not making the cut due to space restrictions that seemed to be there at the time. It's not that I didn't want to run Sigarda, but at that point there was a slim possibility I simply couldn't. There's a difference. Besides, to repeat matt - you cannot simply keep throwing Siege Rhinos and Sigardas at a deck that has 1 mana sweepers and expect the end result to change. Adapt or die, it's pure Darwinism.

@matt: Be that as it may, why shouldn't we look beyond Slaughter Games for something that does the same job but is maindeckable? It'd be nice to increase the odds of also taking game 1. I also really hate the idea of running a Taiga. May your poops give you joy.

@Navsi: Be a little creative. Ramp doesn't necessarily need to be a T1 thing. The last time I got to play physical Magic I ate a Siege Rhino with my Phyrexian Tower, dropped a second Phyrexian Tower and ate something else to drop 2 Siege Rhinos in 1 turn. I couldn't have done that without the Towers, which gave me the boost in mana I needed to do that.

@Brael: I'm not saying we should cut Siege Rhino/Sigarda, I'm saying we may not be able to fit them in. There's a difference. In light of the list I arrived at yesterday, it looks like we at least can fit in Sigarda.

@Arianrhod: Thank you for your support. You're also spot on about what we want for GSZ and the deck in general. WotC needs to print a BG creature that can kill other creatures when it ETB.

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Originally Posted by Echelon

One can cry like a bitch when losing to Miracles or one can try to do something about it. The former will not change the outcome of the Miracles MU, the latter will most definetely not make it worse. Now humor me and explain why the former should call the latter disappointing? You disappoint me man, sticking your head in the sand and hoping for things to somehow magically change in your favor. How is that more useful than what we're trying to do? Look man, this is a labor of love, why do you think we're putting so much effort into it? Heck, look at it as you would at a relationship. Sometimes in a relationship you've got to work on the issues you and your significant other have. That's what we're doing, rather than take the easy route and run off to the corner whore.



Doesn't say a word for a week, opens his mouth the minute another screams disappointment. You sir, are a badass.



Apart from the obvious drawing lands from the top, the most value I usually get out of it is when it shows me that something I really need is on the top of my library when I'm about to crack a fetch/do whatever to mess that up. That has won me games.



Read, man. I was talking about Sigarda maybe not making the cut due to space restrictions that seemed to be there at the time. It's not that I didn't want to run Sigarda, but at that point there was a slim possibility I simply couldn't. There's a difference. Besides, to repeat matt - you cannot simply keep throwing Siege Rhinos and Sigardas at a deck that has 1 mana sweepers and expect the end result to change. Adapt or die, it's pure Darwinism.

@matt: Be that as it may, why shouldn't we look beyond Slaughter Games for something that does the same job but is maindeckable? It'd be nice to increase the odds of also taking game 1. I also really hate the idea of running a Taiga. May you enjoy your poops for the coming days.

@Navsi: Be a little creative. Ramp doesn't necessarily need to be a T1 thing. The last time I got to play physical Magic I ate a Siege Rhino with my Phyrexian Tower, dropped a second Phyrexian Tower and ate something else to drop 2 Siege Rhinos in 1 turn. I couldn't have done that without the Towers, which gave me the boost in mana I needed to do that.

@Brael: I'm not saying we should cut Siege Rhino/Sigarda, I'm saying we may not be able to fit them in. There's a difference. In light of the list I arrived at yesterday, it looks like we at least can fit in Sigarda.

@Arianrhod: Thank you for your support. You're also spot on about what we want for GSZ and the deck in general. WotC needs to print a BG creature that can kill other creatures when it ETB.

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Why do you always have to take things personally? The work you guys are doing is great and the passion you are putting in your work is laudable, but I feel like you guys are going a bit crazy with some of your choices/math and +1ing Ricardios post was the quickest way to express my opinion, unfortunately I can't keep up with all the math you beautiful people are doing bar commenting each individual though process. That post of yours reminds me some posts from the storm or elves thread, keep it classy next time.

@thread: in the 2 matches I have been able to play since my last post abeyance has been decent enough for me to want to keep testing it more. My gut feeling is that without games I feel extremely fragile and defenseless against miracles, because sg is a permanent solution to the problem while abeyance it is not.

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Originally Posted by rubblekill

Why do you always have to take things personally? The work you guys are doing is great and the passion you are putting in your work is laudable, but I feel like you guys are going a bit crazy with some of your choices/math and +1ing Ricardios post was the quickest way to express my opinion, unfortunately I can't keep up with all the math you beautiful people are doing bar commenting each individual though process. That post of yours reminds me some posts from the storm or elves thread, keep it classy next time.

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B/c the internet does not come equiped with intonation and as such some things come across as aimed at a person. Also, "Echelon, you disappoint me" and "Yeah, I agree" seem rather specific, especially if it's 2 consecutive posts posted 11 minutes apart after we've been at it for a number of days. But that's probably just me. Anyways, after that Newtons third law kicks in.

Besides, it's rather easy to not do a thing yourself, yet critique others on their effort and instead of putting effort into that just stick to "Meh, it's different from what we normally do so it must suck" or "Meh, numbers suck". It's hypocritical, it conveys a lack of understanding and it's rude. If that's really the only thing one can contribute, one might as well not contribute at all.

I 100% agree with rubblekill. This number thing is going nowhere. As an example:

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Originally Posted by Echelon

Read, man. I was talking about Sigarda maybe not making the cut due to space restrictions that seemed to be there at the time. It's not that I didn't want to run Sigarda, but at that point there was a slim possibility I simply couldn't. There's a difference. Besides, to repeat matt - you cannot simply keep throwing Siege Rhinos and Sigardas at a deck that has 1 mana sweepers and expect the end result to change. Adapt or die, it's pure Darwinism.

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Instead of theorycrafting, play a few games and you will see that Sigarda is an absolute key card and 100% uncuttable. I would say it is THE most uncuttable card in the deck. Cut literally anything else before Sigarda.

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Originally Posted by Echelon

B/c the internet does not come equiped with intonation and as such some things come across as aimed at a person. Also, "Echelon, you disappoint me" and "Yeah, I agree" seem rather specific, especially if it's 2 consecutive posts posted 11 minutes apart after we've been at it for a number of days. But that's probably just me. Anyways, after that Newtons third law kicks in.

Besides, it's rather easy to not do a thing yourself, yet critique others on their effort and instead of putting effort into that just stick to "Meh, it's different from what we normally do so it must suck" or "Meh, numbers suck". It's hypocritical, it conveys a lack of understanding and it's rude. If that's really the only thing one can contribute, one might as well not contribute at all.

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The part about the disappointment was not included in my "I agree", it was a personal thing between you two. I thought it was obvious. If you read my post it was not negative as you are portraying it now, sorry if you got offended. It truly is hard for me to convey my thinking in the least amount of words possible in English, maybe that makes it seem like I am an angry teenager? This is enough OT for today, you keep doing the math I will keep reading, believing in what I said yesterday, no need for some petty drama.

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Originally Posted by Tao

I 100% agree with rubblekill. This number thing is going nowhere. As an example:

Instead of theorycrafting, play a few games and you will see that Sigarda is an absolute key card and 100% uncuttable. I would say it is THE most uncuttable card in the deck. Cut literally anything else before Sigarda.

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Did we come up with a finished list yet? Can you definitively say we've cut Sigarda? We haven't. You can't, so what the fuck are you bitching about? And do you honestly think none of us ever has had a Sigarda on the field or that we don't know how powerful Sigarda is? Seriously man. Why do I even bother..?

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Originally Posted by rubblekill

The part about the disappointment was not included in my "I agree", it was a personal thing between you two. I thought it was obvious. If you read my post it was not negative as you are portraying it now, sorry if you got offended. It truly is hard for me to convey my thinking in the least amount of words possible in English, maybe that makes it seem like I am an angry teenager? This is enough OT for today, you keep doing the math I will keep reading, believing in what I said yesterday, no need for some petty drama.

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I have a hard time keeping up with everything at the moment too, so part of it probably is on me too. I'm sorry for lashing out. It's frustrating to see so much work being brushed aside with as little as "Meh".

Alright, back to business. I want to see this through to the end. Yesterday I left off at:
19-20 lands
2 Phyrexian Tower for 1 ramp slot
4 GSZ
4 Veteran Explorer
3 Deathrite Shaman
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Pernicious Deed
1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis

I really want to add Tireless Tracker, Eternal Witness and Courser of Kruphix, counting all as CA & finisher. So that's:

19-20 lands
2 Phyrexian Tower for 1 ramp slot
4 GSZ
4 Veteran Explorer
3 Deathrite Shaman
1 Dryad Arbor
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Pernicious Deed
1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Eternal Witness
1 Courser of Kruphix

Makes 24, with 16-17 slots worth in 15-16 available slots, divided in:
8 interaction/removal
5 CA/library manipulation
3-4 finisher
to go.

1 double duty slot to go. Every double duty slot we manage to go above that, frees up room for whatever we want.

Hey Guys,

It's been a while since I last posted here, but I followed the discussion over the last week and I am very interested in where this new approach leads us. As many here already mentioned, since we can't manipulate our draws as easily as blue decks do, I think it's even more important to have a good deck foundation. Being open to new things is important here, that doesn't mean any of you will have to cut things like Rhino or Sigarda, since it seems that at least 3 decktypes are crystallizing themselves. (and I'm saying this as a guy who thought of trying a BUG version and adding sigarda there, since you can shuffle her away with brainstorm. I am hopelessly in love with her)

Hats off to everyone who is contributing in this conversation! I'd like to contribute as well, since I have a little knowledge about statistics, but I have absolutely no idea how to use that knowledge in the context of mtg :frown:

Keep up the good work!

@helvetios: All you need to do to contribute is to try and form a list using the requirements model we put up, that is all. I can repost it if you want.

@other contributors: I know you disagree on the high requirements I set and try to uphold, but try to see this through to the end. After this the SE methodology really kicks in and we evaluate which requirements are too strict (or not strict enough) and adjust our lists accordingly. Lowering them well before the end just sets us up for failure. Concluding that they're too strict to be realisable however is a perfectly viable outcome of the end product, provided that we actually get there.

@Echelon: I need to head out now, but I'll come up with a list in the evening :)

@Echelon

The big worry that I have here is that both of us seem to be stretching your rules, just in opposite directions.

- I have been shaving the card number requirements down where possible to 10/15/15/15 or so. Personally I don't think that playing subpar cards simply because they fulfil multiple roles is worth it.
- You've been stretching your definitions to keep the numbers high instead. I get your reasoning, but I still don't agree that we can group Deed in with the filtering cards, Arbor/Tower with ramp, or Witness as a finisher.

IMO we have to be more precise with our category definitions:

- Ramp: cards which, when drawn in the top 8 cards of the deck, allow us access to 4+ mana by turn three.
- Interaction: cards which provide ways of removing the opponent's threats, whether from the hand or the battlefield.
- Finisher: cards which either present a <=5 turn clock (i.e reliably swing for 4+) or uninteractable damage (i.e. DRS, Sorin), or both.
- Library manipulation: cards which get cards from our deck or graveyard into our hand faster than our natural draw, or give us selection.

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Originally Posted by Navsi

@Echelon

The big worry that I have here is that both of us seem to be stretching your rules, just in opposite directions.

- I have been shaving the card number requirements down where possible to 10/15/15/15 or so. Personally I don't think that playing subpar cards simply because they fulfil multiple roles is worth it.
- You've been stretching your definitions to keep the numbers high instead. I get your reasoning, but I still don't agree that we can group Deed in with the filtering cards, Arbor/Tower with ramp, or Witness as a finisher.

IMO we have to be more precise with our category definitions:

- Ramp: cards which, when drawn in the top 8 cards of the deck, allow us access to 4+ mana by turn three.
- Interaction: cards which provide ways of removing the opponent's threats, whether from the hand or the battlefield.
- Finisher: cards which either present a <=5 turn clock (i.e reliably swing for 4+) or uninteractable damage (i.e. DRS, Sorin), or both.
- Library manipulation: cards which get cards from our deck or graveyard into our hand faster than our natural draw, or give us selection.

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Yeah, we're both going in different directions. I'm wondering though - in the list that I've put up so far, what multipurpose cards seem subpar to you? So far I've put up nothing we normally don't run, have I?

Brael stated a while back (page 245, post #4897) that Eternal Witness/Courser (or even Dryad Arbor) could be viewed as a finisher just as well since we put a lot of effort in clearing the opposing board. I agree with that. A finisher should be anything that, when left unchecked, kills your opponent. And does so with >1 damage/turn. Some cards do that job more easily than others, but I have no problem with doing it via bugbites.

CA is anything that causes you to end up with more cards than your opponent (or lets you filter through more cards than you would normally see). As such, any card that typically is played out as X for Y < X should be counted as such as you aim to end up with +(X-Y) cards over your opponent.

One of the reasons I don't like treating Witness etc as a win condition is the comparison to Shardless. It's been mentioned at several points in the past in this thread that one of the reasons we have such a good matchup against Shardless is the deck's small number of true threats - Shardless Agent's 2 power beatdowns and Baleful Strix's 1/1 stats don't present a threatening enough clock to cause us trouble. It's the same the other way round- finishers which present 8+ turn clocks just aren't a problem for the majority of our opponents. We're giving them too much time to protect themselves, and it's also blanked by any creature in their own deck.

Card Advantage is a point I get you on. I understand the definition, but I don't agree that that's what the category should be. The definition I'm trying to make for those cards is library manipulation - we need a number of cards which smooth our draws, which get us removal when we need it and a finisher when we want to end the game. Deeds are great and should definitely be in the deck, but they don't help us to dig for whatever bit of our deck we are missing. Sometimes we need a Deed, yeah, but sometimes you're facing down a threat that demands Path, or you've just swept the board and need to jam that Sigarda. That's the category of cards I'm trying to define here. Sweepers are just a form of interaction. There just isn't a good word for it - "library manipulation" excludes Witness, draw excludes Top, filtering excludes Truths, etc.

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Originally Posted by Navsi

Wonderful realisation

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We need to differentiate. Split CA from library manipulation/filtering. Most blue decks out there run 8 Ponder + Brainstorm, which we can probably agree on is pure library manipulation/filtering. To mimic that we'll need 8 of those too. Out of the 15/16 slots we defined as combined library manipulation/CA, that leaves us with 7/8 more pure CA slots to fill.

The same goes for the finisher category.

Updated slot distribution:
21-22 land
15/16 interaction/removal
8 library manipulation/filtering
7/8 CA
14 ramp (be a little liberal when it comes to these)
8 beaters (bugbites category)
7 gamechanging finishers (4 CMC+)

Where GSZ cannot count as beater + gamechanger. We'll just put it under the heaviest hitter category.

Does this make more sense?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Echelon

We need to differentiate. Split CA from library manipulation/filtering. Most blue decks out there run 8 Ponder + Brainstorm, which we can probably agree on is pure library manipulation/filtering. To mimic that we'll need 8 of those too. Out of the 15/16 slots we defined as combined library manipulation/CA, that leaves us with 7/8 more pure CA slots to fill.

The same goes for the finisher category.

Updated slot distribution:
21-22 land
15/16 interaction/removal
8 library manipulation/filtering
7/8 CA
14 ramp (be a little liberal when it comes to these)
8 beaters (bugbites category)
7 gamechanging finishers (4 CMC+)

Where GSZ cannot count as beater + gamechanger. We'll just put it under the heaviest hitter.

Does this make more sense?

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I don't know if non-finisher beaters are something we necessarily need. Sure they're nice to have, the ability to turn a Witness sideways is nice, but it's not like they are actually needed to fulfil a specific role the deck wants. Not having access to any 2-power men doesn't actually negatively impact our plan in the same way that having no removal, or no true finishers does.

I think we're going to end up more on 6 CA / 8-10 card selection, by the way. The only real CA we commonly run is in sweepers and Truths (and now Tracker) - but we always have at least 8 selection cards at minimum (3 Top 4 GSZ 1 Witness).

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Originally Posted by Navsi

I don't know if non-finisher beaters are something we necessarily need. Sure they're nice to have, the ability to turn a Witness sideways is nice, but it's not like they are actually needed to fulfil a specific role the deck wants. Not having access to any 2-power men doesn't actually negatively impact our plan in the same way that having no removal, or no true finishers does.

I think we're going to end up more on 6 CA / 8-10 card selection, by the way. The only real CA we commonly run is in sweepers and Truths (and now Tracker) - but we always have at least 8 selection cards at minimum (3 Top 4 GSZ 1 Witness).

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I think we do need the smaller bodies. If our number of big bodies matches the number (or is smaller than that number) of removal spells our opponents have, we'll have a hard time coming out on top. We need those small bodies to soak up a bunch of removal so our real threats survive. The question is how many big bodies do we need and how much cannon fodder should we have? I mean, we get a lot of fodder regardless of whether we specify them or not.

I'm torn on viewing GSZ as full fledged card selection. It can't get you removal where you often do want it.

I also think Courser of Kruphix (due to the number of shuffle effects we run) should be viewed as a card selection card.

The advantage of our bigger bodies is that they are often resistant to those same removal spells. Obviously Swords and Force are relevant, but Bolt and Decay don't catch any of our big threats really, and playing more little guys is just giving them targets. We don't need to put the fodder in its own category because the number of creatures that fit it isn't relevant to our game plan.

If Witness is selection, Zenith -> Witness is selection too. I didn't include Courser in the ones I mentioned because it isn't a core card - it's a fringe option if you want to hedge harder against aggro strategies - especially now that Tracker already provides a more effective midrange beater/CA option.

One card to consider is Terminus. That is a problem we need to deal with. A couple of small bodies might provoke it, which suddenly makes them very relevant to our gameplan. The same holds true when one wants to deal with Jace (or at least keep him off ult'ing). I think Tracker plays an important role here since it's pretty aggressive @3 power and a case can perhaps be made for Qasali Pridemage. GSZ into kicking Jace in the nuts and threatening to blow up Counterbalance when your opponent looks at you funny sounds helpful.

A plus for Courser when compared to Tracker is that it's Lightning Bolt-proof and can block some stuff Tracker can't for days.

I'm following your lead on GSZ as manipulation, by the way.

I don't think the Miracles matchup is one we can out-threat pre-sideboard.

They generally have 14-18 "hard" removal spells:
- 4 Terminus
- 4 Force
- 4 Swords
- 1 Council's Judgment
- 1-2 Counterspell
- 0-3 Snapcaster

We can't get our threats against Miracles that high before Sideboard - we're going to need to side in Slaughter Games.

The best solution for the little creatures plan would be to treat them similarly to how you ran Phyrexian Tower, and have each creature that doesn't threaten to end the game fast count as 0.5 finisher. So if the spread is, for example:

4 GSZ
1 Sigarda
2 Rhino
1 Sorin
1 Tracker
---
9 'full' finishers

2 Deathrite
1 Witness
1 Courser
1 QPM
---
2.5 'slow' finishers

Putting us on a 11.5. Just as an example.

I like your approach!

To recap everything so far:

Requirements:
- Must be able to go over the top of most opponents
- Must be able to handle/mitigate mana denial strategies
- Must be able to break through lock pieces
- Must be able to handle opposing threats on the board
- Manabase must be able to consistently produce green mana on turn 1
- Manabase must be able to consistently produce black mana on turn 1
- Manabase must be able to consistently produce white mana on turn 2
- No card may cost >6 mana
- No card may have triple mana of any 1 colour in its manacost
- GSZ'able cards must have intrinsic value
- Creatures must either provide mandatory utility effects, be very hard to kill or have a very high power/mana ratio
- Ramp slots may not cost >2 mana

We lose:
- Against quick combo.
- When our threats get dealt with (looking at you miracle).
- When the opponent goes bigger.
- When the opponent disrupt the explorer plan so that we play a slow deck that dies to Daze

Suggested mana curve:
17 CMC 1 cards
10 CMC 2 cards
5 CMC 3 cards
4 CMC 4 cards
2 CMC 5 cards
1 CMC 6 card

Updated slot distribution:
21-22 land
15/16 interaction/removal
8-10 library manipulation/filtering
6-8 CA
14 ramp (be a little liberal when it comes to these)
12 finishers

With the redefinition of our finishers category we can lower that number a bit.

Projecting the list I have so far:
19-20 lands
2 Phyrexian Tower - 1 ramp slot
4 GSZ - 4 library manipulation/card selection, 4 ramp and 4 finisher slots
4 Veteran Explorer - 4 ramp slots
3 Deathrite Shaman - 3 ramp slots and 1.5 finisher slots
1 Dryad Arbor - 1 ramp slot
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder - 1 ramp slot
4 Cabal Therapy - 4 interaction/removal slots
3 Pernicious Deed - 3 interaction/removal and 3 CA slots
1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis - 1 interaction/removal, 1 CA and 1 finisher slot
1 Tireless Tracker - 1 CA and 1 finisher slot
1 Eternal Witness - 1 card selection, 0.5 finisher
1 Courser of Kruphix - 1 card selection, 0.5 finisher

This fills:
14 ramp slots
8.5 finisher slots
5 CA slots
6 card selection/library manipulation slots
8 removal/interaction slots

With 24 cards + 21/22 lands. So that's 15/16 cards to go, with these slots to fill:
3.5 finisher
3-5 card selection/library manipulation
1-3 CA
7/8 removal/interaction

I want to add 1 QPM for some utility vs. Miracles and assorted other stuff (worst case scenario it's a 3/3 beater for 2 mana) and we've been building towards 4 SDT, which is pure library manipulation. This brings us at:
19-20 lands
2 Phyrexian Tower - 1 ramp slot
4 GSZ - 4 library manipulation/card selection, 4 ramp and 4 finisher slots
4 Veteran Explorer - 4 ramp slots
3 Deathrite Shaman - 3 ramp slots and 1.5 finisher slots
1 Dryad Arbor - 1 ramp slot
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder - 1 ramp slot
4 Cabal Therapy - 4 interaction/removal slots
3 Pernicious Deed - 3 interaction/removal and 3 CA slots
1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis - 1 interaction/removal, 1 CA and 1 finisher slot
1 Tireless Tracker - 1 CA and 1 finisher slot
1 Eternal Witness - 1 card selection, 0.5 finisher slot
1 Courser of Kruphix - 1 card selection, 0.5 finisher slot
1 Qasali Pridemage - 1 interaction/removal slot, 0.5 finisher slot
4 Sensei's Divining Top - 4 library manipulation/card selection slots

For:
14 ramp slots
9 finisher slots
5 CA slots
10 card selection/library manipulation slots
9 removal/interaction slots

With 10/11 cards left and
3 finisher
1-3 CA
6/7 removal/interaction
to go.

At this point Courser of Kruphix is no longer mandatory, as that'd leave us wanting for 0-1 card selection/library manipulation slots and another 0.5 finisher. If needed, Courser can be replaced for another card.

just a short interjection to the SG discussion. my first round this weekend was unfortunately the mirror and game two he SG the rhinos and I was like F*** u.
pages ago I asked u exactly that question and it prompt happened to me, wow.

so in my opinion the win conditions (full+slow finishers) have to be spread on more shoulders, I think I will cut at least one rhino and add baneslayer even though I can't dig it.

I know u discussed the different meanings of the distribution list but what exactly in included in every point?
21-22 land
15/16 interaction/removal (m.pulse, vindicate, abzan charm, cabal therapy, pte / but do u also count drs and scooze for example as they interact?)
8-10 library manipulation/filtering (vex, e witness, sakura, gsz?, top, tracker? and even fetch lands?)
6-8 CA (e. witness, truths, abzan charm)
14 ramp (vex, sakura, drs, gsz?)
12 finishers

sorry if I missed the definition but I think it would be helpful to define the different points to make it easier for everybody posting a deck and mentioning the split.
for me it is very interesting to see how many different roles our cards can play.

FOUND IT:
- Ramp: cards which, when drawn in the top 8 cards of the deck, allow us access to 4+ mana by turn three.
- Interaction: cards which provide ways of removing the opponent's threats, whether from the hand or the battlefield.
- Finisher: cards which either present a <=5 turn clock (i.e reliably swing for 4+) or uninteractable damage (i.e. DRS, Sorin), or both.
- Library manipulation: cards which get cards from our deck or graveyard into our hand faster than our natural draw, or give us selection.

but we could add graveyard to the interaction -> drs, scooze

Alright, I'm finishing this list. I'm choosing a 22 land manabase to make the most use of the Veteran Explorers and Sakura-Tribe Elder, so that leaves me 10 cards.

I need to fill:
3 finisher
1-3 CA
6/7 removal/interaction

For removal, I'm picking 6 Abrupt Decay/Path to Exile. The CA card becomes a Meren of Clan Nel Toth, since she has some affinity with a number of the cards we currently run. 3 cards to go. Courser of Kruphix goes out, since we need more high end meat. Those 4 cards become 3 Siege Rhino and 1 Sigarda, Host of Herons.

The finished list, sorted by card type and CMC:
Creatures (17)
1 Dryad Arbor
4 Veteran Explorer
3 Deathrite Shaman
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Qasali Pridemage
1 Eternal Witness
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Meren of Clan Nel Toth
3 Siege Rhino
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons

Artifacts (4):
4 Sensei's Divining Top

Sorceries & instants (16):
4 Green Sun's Zenith
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Path to Exile
3 Abrupt Decay

Enchantments (1):
3 Pernicious Deed

Planeswalkers (1):
1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis

Lands (22):
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath
2 Marsh Flats
1 Bayou
1 Savannah
1 Scrubland
3 Forest
2 Swamp
2 Plains
2 Phyrexian Tower

I'm missing a card. Counting is hard. Oh well. Since we've filled all necessary slots this can be anything from Scavenging Ooze to Vindicate to another Siege Rhino, the Courser we dropped or the Painful Truths we didn't manage to fit in. Meren could be swapped out for another Painful Truths to keep things streamlined.

Is it just me or is this by-the-numbers build pretty much what we normally run..? The only difference here being that we run a full 4 SDT. OMG, FFS lol. The one thing we have learned is that we're free to switch up finisher-only cards as we see fit. If at some point we deem it necessary to lower the number of Siege Rhinos to incorporate more planeswalkers to combat Miracles, we can do so without problem.

It does put the "those numbers are too high", "there aren't enough viable cards in that category" and "you're going to have to play subpar cards" pleads into perspective though. No balls, no glory and Siege Rhino prevails.

The list you have fits things, true, but there are still a few things I'm not certain about.

- 4 Tops: Painful Truths might want to take one of these slots. Filtering vs. straight Draw. Tops are a little awkward in multiples, but I guess we can always put one on top and shuffle it away.

- I still think the number of ramp cards you're playing is too high. What odds would you be comfortable with for getting a ramp card in your opener? 80%? 90%?

- I think we should look into the other two lists - the ones which swap out Meren/Arbor for either Stoneforges or Planeswalkers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Echelon

I think we do need the smaller bodies. If our number of big bodies matches the number (or is smaller than that number) of removal spells our opponents have, we'll have a hard time coming out on top. We need those small bodies to soak up a bunch of removal so our real threats survive. The question is how many big bodies do we need and how much cannon fodder should we have? I mean, we get a lot of fodder regardless of whether we specify them or not.

I'm torn on viewing GSZ as full fledged card selection. It can't get you removal where you often do want it.

I also think Courser of Kruphix (due to the number of shuffle effects we run) should be viewed as a card selection card.

---

Courser is really selection and advantage. Combined with Tracker or Top it's advantage, combined with GSZ and shuffles it's selection.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Echelon

I'm missing a card. Counting is hard. Oh well. Since we've filled all necessary slots this can be anything from Scavenging Ooze to Vindicate to another Siege Rhino, the Courser we dropped or the Painful Truths we didn't manage to fit in. Meren could be swapped out for another Painful Truths to keep things streamlined.

---

I'm trying my flex slots out as Dark Confidants. They work well with top, are pure advantage, hit hard enough to end the game (anything 2+ power does really), and are just as non GSZ'able as a Painful Truths, except Bob also makes my opponent use a removal spell, which makes everything else more likely to survive. So far they haven't been all that impressive but I don't think I'm using them right. I find they almost always die instantly, but I think that's a sequencing problem on my end.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Navsi

The list you have fits things, true, but there are still a few things I'm not certain about.

- 4 Tops: Painful Truths might want to take one of these slots. Filtering vs. straight Draw. Tops are a little awkward in multiples, but I guess we can always put one on top and shuffle it away.

- I still think the number of ramp cards you're playing is too high. What odds would you be comfortable with for getting a ramp card in your opener? 80%? 90%?

- I think we should look into the other two lists - the ones which swap out Meren/Arbor for either Stoneforges or Planeswalkers.

---

Didn't we want to be @4 Tops b/c of consistency?

The ramp portion is fine. It helps you power out the good stuff, draw cards off Tracker and sink mana in Tops. It'll get you to the late game more quickly and helps you filter once you get there. This just is the point where that particular list needs to go from theory to real games. I won't get to play in the forseeable future so I fear this falls on someone else.

Looking into those other two lists is fine by me. Let's have it.

We want the Top slot to be a consistency tool, but it doesn't necessarily have to be Top. Going from three to four tops increases our odds of getting one early (first 10 cards) from 47% to 52%. Might be worth it, considering we can shuffle it away pretty easily if we get a second.

I understand what the ramp cards do, I just don't think the % of games where we draw triple-vet/ste is worth the inclusion of the fifth one (or maybe even the fourth). Particularly when even with just 3 vets and 4 gsz, we still have very high odds of getting one in the first few turns, and we have enough 2-drops etc to get by without them in a lot of matchups. It's not like we need the ramp to play our interaction cards (other than Deed).

We can either shuffle it away (since it can place itself on top of the library) or bait out a Daze/FoW with it to clear the way to other stuff.

What we can use that ramp for is to power out big threats quickly, which can cause all sorts of havoc for our opponent. Opening a hand with 3 Explorers/Tribe Elders seem like good times to me. That's the kind of opener that leads to T2 Sigarda or T3 Sorin.

4 SDT seems excessive, 2-3 seems like the sweet spot, for me at least. I agree with painful truths being raw CA that we need in some situations.

@Echelon: I read your comment a page or so back that was thoroughly assaulting me on a personal level and I thought about it before responding. I am not sure what you thought when you felt that was ok to say but know that I wasn't personally attacking you. I was being sarcastic and don't use "Connotation isn't inherent over the internet" because I am consistently sarcastic. Then to go immediately after Rubble when he is probably one of the most positive personalities on this thread is not acceptable. Your outburst is totally uncharacteristic of the understanding culture we have cultivated in this thread. We meaning each and every person that has contributed to this deck. I understand you and others are working hard on your goal to make the deck better through the means you best understand and I would never stifle that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ricardio

Then to go immediately after Rubble when he is probably one of the most positive personalities on this thread...

---

Thank you darling, I have always known you had a thing for me. I do reciprocate your sentiment, really.

I am probably stupid but what does it mean "card x is a 0.5 ramp card" etc etc?

4 Veteran Explorer
3 Siege Rhino
2 Deathrite Shaman
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Eternal Witness
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Baneslayer Angel

3 Sensei's Divining Top

4 Green Sun's Zenith
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Abrupt Decay
3 Path to Exile
1 Vindicate
1 Painful Truths
1 Abzan Charm

3 Pernicious Deed

4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath
2 Bayou
1 Savannah
1 Scrubland
3 Forest
2 Swamp
2 Plains
1 Phyrexian Tower or Stronghold
1 Karakas



lands: 21
interactions/removal: 16 (2*0,5 drs, 0,5 scooze, 1 vindicate, 1 abzan, 4 cabal therapy, 3*0,5 p deed, 4 abrupt decay, 3 pte)
library/ca: 15 (4*0,5 vex, 1 e witness, 0,5 sakura, 4 gsz, 1 p truths, 1 abzan, 3*0,5 deed, 3 top, 1 t tracker)
ramp: 11 (4 vex, 1 sakura, 2 drs, 4 gsz)
finisher: 13 (3 siege,2*0,5 drs, 1 sigarda, 4 gsz, 1 baneslayer, 1 scooze, 1 t tracker)

I stick to the 21 lands because I didn't face any mana issues so far.
0,5 drs and scooze interaction/removal because they interact with the graveyard basically every game.
0,5 vex and sakura because they shuffle the bib only and we lose a creature.
0,5 p deed removal and CA because it isn't a spot removal but 'interacts/removes' the board completely.
0,5 drs finisher because it is very slow and easy to remove.

to be honest I didn't test Sorin nor abzan but I like the synergies they have that is why I will definitely start testing them.
I read your concerns abt abzan but I want to try it. I guess it will be the second painful truths or maelstrom pulse if it is underwhelming.

CMC:
1: 14
2: 6
3: 8
4: 3
5: 2

I don't like the 3 and 2 split but as Echelon already said it seems the list ends up the same as before except a few 'new' cards like tracker and sorin.

really looking forward to your comments.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ricardio

I am gone for a weekend and shit like this happens....Now, I'm reading through what looks like a damn math experiment gone wrong with all this belcher esque analysis. I believe over quantification will only lead to frustration. Nic fit is a labor of love, don't fall into madness over making the numbers perfect.

Also, Echelon, I am disappoint.

---

How is poring over numbers, theories and statistics to make a deck better NOT a labor of love? Echelon nailed it when he said sticking your head in the sand isn't going to solve anything. Yes, jamming Ajani, Mentor of heroes is cool. So is winning and taking this deck up a level.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Echelon

One can cry like a bitch when losing to Miracles or one can try to do something about it. The former will not change the outcome of the Miracles MU, the latter will most definetely not make it worse. Now humor me and explain why the former should call the latter disappointing? You disappoint me man, sticking your head in the sand and hoping for things to somehow magically change in your favor. How is that more useful than what we're trying to do? Look man, this is a labor of love, why do you think we're putting so much effort into it? Heck, look at it as you would at a relationship. Sometimes in a relationship you've got to work on the issues you and your significant other have. That's what we're doing, rather than take the easy route and run off to the corner whore.

---

Exactly. It's akin to a child being told something they don't want to hear so they cup their ears with their hands and shout nonsense.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Ricardio

@Echelon: I read your comment a page or so back that was thoroughly assaulting me on a personal level and I thought about it before responding. I am not sure what you thought when you felt that was ok to say but know that I wasn't personally attacking you. I was being sarcastic and don't use "Connotation isn't inherent over the internet" because I am consistently sarcastic. Then to go immediately after Rubble when he is probably one of the most positive personalities on this thread is not acceptable. Your outburst is totally uncharacteristic of the understanding culture we have cultivated in this thread. We meaning each and every person that has contributed to this deck. I understand you and others are working hard on your goal to make the deck better through the means you best understand and I would never stifle that.

---

Personally assaulting you, seriously?

Echelon, among others, work tirelessly on this deck and have been for a long time. Whether you agree or disagree with what they're saying is another thing, and you can discuss that. But don't bash well thought out posts by proclaiming that they're 'losing the Nic Fit way' or whatever is going through your head. Back up your arguments with actual lists, testing, data or results.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rubblekill

I am probably stupid but what does it mean "card x is a 0.5 ramp card" etc etc?

---

In general, it means the card fills the role but it doesn't fill it well. For example, Phyrexian Tower is a ramp card but it can't accelerate you early, if your opening is a Top or Therapy you can't use Phyrexian Tower, and if you have to Tower away a DRS you're also giving up some mana in future turns in exchange for more mana now.

An example here could be Courser of Kruphix, as a ramp card it probably does help accelerate you to 5 or 6 mana (depending on your hand), but that's just through making more land drops rather than true acceleration. Courser will never allow you to have more mana on hand than the turn number.

GSZ could be another .5 ramp card because while a GSZ for 0 turns on Dryad Arbor or for 1 turns on Veteran Explorer (if you can sac it), ideally you want GSZ to turn into a threat rather than an enabler for a threat.

Basically, it's saying that the card fills the role but at a lower degree of efficiency. Back to the Courser example, at several points I've mentioned it's worth .35 cards. In this case that's derived mathematically as 22 lands/61 cards, and that same math makes it being worth more with Top. In this case it's quantifying value, where as something like Bob is worth a flat 1 card/turn, and Tracker is worth a lot of cards (the verdict on how many is still out, but I'm sticking to my earlier description that it's a 4-5 power Ancestral Vision).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Navsi

We want the Top slot to be a consistency tool, but it doesn't necessarily have to be Top. Going from three to four tops increases our odds of getting one early (first 10 cards) from 47% to 52%. Might be worth it, considering we can shuffle it away pretty easily if we get a second.

---

The biggest problem I've seen with drawing two is that while you can eventually shuffle them away, it's a long term plan to do so. It's a rare game where I've found myself able to shuffle away a Top in the first say 4-5 turns. At that point it's a dead draw. That said, I think that having the backup is still worth it, we're very reliant on shuffle effects and the opponent destroying our top in response to a shuffle is usually the best way to use your second early. I find Abrupt Decays really like to hit them since we have so few other targets (especially since people haven't figured out how strong Tracker is yet).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Brael

In general, it means the card fills the role but it doesn't fill it well. For example, Phyrexian Tower is a ramp card but it can't accelerate you early, if your opening is a Top or Therapy you can't use Phyrexian Tower, and if you have to Tower away a DRS you're also giving up some mana in future turns in exchange for more mana now.

An example here could be Courser of Kruphix, as a ramp card it probably does help accelerate you to 5 or 6 mana (depending on your hand), but that's just through making more land drops rather than true acceleration. Courser will never allow you to have more mana on hand than the turn number.

GSZ could be another .5 ramp card because while a GSZ for 0 turns on Dryad Arbor or for 1 turns on Veteran Explorer (if you can sac it), ideally you want GSZ to turn into a threat rather than an enabler for a threat.

Basically, it's saying that the card fills the role but at a lower degree of efficiency. Back to the Courser example, at several points I've mentioned it's worth .35 cards. In this case that's derived mathematically as 22 lands/61 cards, and that same math makes it being worth more with Top. In this case it's quantifying value, where as something like Bob is worth a flat 1 card/turn, and Tracker is worth a lot of cards (the verdict on how many is still out, but I'm sticking to my description that it's a 4-5 power Ancestral Vision).

---

Thank you so much!

E: btw, isn't tracker a nonbo with deed?

Back to the SE Fit idea, a page ago we were discussing cutting Rhino and Sigarda. I think that's wrong if we're in white, but is white actually the best third color to hit our deck specifications? We also have the options of straight GB (enables Hymn), Red (no Slaughter Games splash, Huntmaster, many other RG cards), and Blue (expensive duals, lower threat count, maybe FoW, actual cantrips).

In Blue I wonder about some sort of Shardless BUG/Nic Fit cross, where we could use Agent/Strix to generate value (bet blue could get a 21 creature list where everything is CA) and gain some actual Brainstorms rather than going through so many hoops to get a similar effect and greatly improves combo matchups.

Red on the other hand enables some reach in Bolt, a non splash Slaughter Games, Huntmaster as another beefy 4 drop, Domri Rade as CA, removal, and a finisher (and it gains from Top), and so on, maybe even Bloodbraid with Top manipulation. I bet Miracles would have a hell of a time between Slaughter Games and Xenagos, God of Revels. Maybe even some version of Punishing Fit, that's an archetype I've never played but I could see it working with this model though Punishing Fit might be one too many mana sinks. It's certainly a good option for CA though, it even opens up REB as another SB option for interaction against combo.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by rubblekill

Thank you so much!

E: btw, isn't tracker a nonbo with deed?

---

NP.

In theory, Tracker is a nonbo with deed but in practice I'm not seeing it to be an issue. In a similar vein of things, Scavenging Ooze and Deathrite Shaman are also both nonbos but it doesn't stop us because the upside of the cards is just so high.

What I'm finding is I can usually pop Deed at 2 and have Tracker dodge it. The clue tokens can be wiped out, but I've had so much CA lately that I'm using my clues quickly. They're a very good mana sink (and I've been lowering my curve so I can use more sinks) and really just cracking a single clue puts you ahead. Getting the opportunity to crack several just puts you way ahead.

There's also a bit of sequencing in play here. If you need an early Deed you're probably playing it, using it, and then following up the turn after with Tracker. I haven't run into a situation yet where I need to Tracker, get clues, and then use Deed.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Tao

I 100% agree with rubblekill. This number thing is going nowhere. As an example:





Instead of theorycrafting, play a few games and you will see that Sigarda is an absolute key card and 100% uncuttable. I would say it is THE most uncuttable card in the deck. Cut literally anything else before Sigarda.

---

I'd cut myself before I cut Sigarda.

4 Veteran Explorer
2 Deathrite Shaman
1 Scavenging Ooze
1 Eternal Witness
4 Siege Rhino
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Sylvan Safekeeper
14 threats

4 Green Sun's Zenith
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Path to Exile
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Pernicious Deed
17 staples/removal

3 Sensei's Divining Top
2 Painful Truths
1 Sylvan Library
6 Filter and Draw

2 Sorin, Grim Vampire-Person
2 Control Walkers

22 Lands
2 Phyrexian Tower
1 Taiga
2 Bayou
2 Savannah
1 Scrubland
3 Forest
2 Swamp
2 Plains
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Windswept Heath

61 total. I'd consider cutting a Heath for another Painful Truths, or Vindicate.

Sideboard

3 Thoughtseize
1 Gaddock Teeg
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons or Garruk Relentless (I feel like Sigarda #2, Tao may disagree, but I'd just want to increase my frequency).
1 Golgari Charm
1 Toxic Deluge
1 Tsunami
1 From the Ashes
2 Slaughter Games
2 Pithing Needle
1 Vindicate/Sorin
1 Open (combo hate, likely)

My reasoning is as follows:

Maindeck isn't very different. Whatever. Vindicate could take the place of a Sorin, but whatever works for ya. Safekeeper is something to try to help Rhinos get through the STP.decks. Is it amazing? No, but it is hard to beat. Plus, it games well against Combo with Teeg.

Sideboard is for the following reasons:

Thoughtseize for Combo. Need dat interaction and to give you time. Let's be real - we're slow as fuck.

Teeg for Miracles, Combo, assorted flavours of bullshit. I agree, shutting down GSZ is a pain in the ass, but sometimes, you need him.

Control piece - Sigarda #2 is there for Miracles and the Liliana.deck. She's gameover against all the midrangey bullshit in the format, and does wonders against Miracles. I don't see a second copy as a problem, especially if one gets countered. Could also just be a Relentless, that's for testing to decide. Relentless is far less fragile, but worse against stuff like Jace/Liliana. Sigarda can break you being behind against onboard Jace AND Liliana. Garruk cannot.

Sweep - I foresee a Port reprinting in Eternal Masters, so every person who wanted to get into Legacy might try DnT. Toxic is never bad, and Charm has a little bit more use and a bit faster against, say, Elves. It's two cards to shore up matchups that are probably still favourable, but I'd never want to lose.

Tsunami as the control breaker.

From the Ashes as your trump to Eldrazi. I split this with Tsunami since From the Ashes is only meh against Miracles. Ruination might be better so you have two options, but whatever.

Needles for Jace, Sneak, Grizzle, Batterskull, or whatever. I don't care. Needle good.

Didn't get room for the Vindicate main, so here it is. Could be main instead of a Sorin, we'll see.

Open slot for either combo hate, or a Grip or something.