I have been testing with Manamorphose and have found it to be semi useful. I like it because I can now run 1 Taiga and no Bayou but still support Dark Ritual. I will keep testing and keep everyone updated...
Printable View
I have been testing with Manamorphose and have found it to be semi useful. I like it because I can now run 1 Taiga and no Bayou but still support Dark Ritual. I will keep testing and keep everyone updated...
Spoils of the Vault != Street Wraith.Quote:
Originally Posted by A Legend
Wraith draws an unpredictable card. Spoils is a tutor with a 9 out of 10 chance of putting your win condition, or a win condition enabler, directly into your hand, and a 1 in 10 chance of bringing on a loss that you likely would have incurred anyway (after all, your best-at-the-time win condition was deeper in the deck than your life total...would you really have survived long enough to hit an alternate win?).
FoW is what it is....if they have it, they have it. If it was Demonic Tutor instead of Spoils, it would only have a 1/10 better shot at winning you the game, as the result of the tutor would be as likely to be countered, and would take you just as long to ramp back up.
Of course, you have alot more experience in this area than most of the rest of us, and the numbers to prove it, so maybe I'm just completely wrong here.
The only flaw in your logic is that Spoils costs you a :b: and Street Wraith is free...Quote:
Originally Posted by m03
I don't see how that makes a difference...or is a flaw in my logic, for that matter. They're two completely different cards with completely different uses. I wouldn't run them both in the same deck, for sure. In fact, I wouldn't run Street Wraith at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sacearuse
Street Wraith works against your Spoils tutoring power by reducing the number of cards you can dig without dying by 1 (2 lost life and 1 gained card), while giving you almost nothing useful in return....whereas Spoils gives you a win condition.
Well I mean you can run Spoils if you want. All I'm saying is you're putting yourself at risk of losing the game. You need to ask yourself:
Would you feel comfortable taking a deck with Spoils of the Vault into a major tournament setting knowing there's control everywhere? It just makes it harder to handle mentally too because you already have to worry about the control match-up. Spoils can be good at end of turn, that much I'll grant you. But I would never feel comfortable casting it in a big tournament.
I used to play Spoils in Mask-Nought years ago in the old 1.5 and I really liked it. But it makes your deck far too inconsistent to win in today's meta-game. Basically what I'm saying is: Make your opponent beat you. Don't beat yourself.
I'm not sure if anyone has suggested this, but I think Summoner's Pact may be an inclusion in G/R Belcher. It tutors Elvish Spirit Guide/Tinder Wall for free, adding to a storm count, and allows mana acceleration and deck thinning. However, It's usually used when the combo is almost out, or when we are confident on going out. Just a thought.
I personally think Manamorphose is a strong inclusion. It makes the deck 56 cards, mana fixes for wish targets, and adds to storm count, satisfying all the requirements for Belcher combo to go off.
I don't think that Pact should be played for their storm value. You'd need to come up with the 2GG on the next turn if you plan to use Empty the Warrens.Quote:
Originally Posted by crz87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sanguine Voyeur
Agreed. You're more likely to go off with Empty the Warrens than you are with Belcher, due to effectively running 7 copies (3x EtW, 4x Burning Wish). Pacts are bad new in Belcher.
What's happening with that program that was going to find the fastest possible belcher list?
I think it is not possible to write a programm for this....
I wonder why Darksteel Ignot isn't included. I thought first turn wins were a good thing. Has anyone mentioned this yet?
Darksteel Ingot? This does not help you for a first turn win, you are loosing two mana by casting this. even if you had three permanent mana sources to play this with there are still better options.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulletus
QFT...what purpose does the Ingot serve?Quote:
Originally Posted by Maagler
I assume he meant Serum Powder. Same set, same mana cost, they both tap for a mana.
Where is your math to backup the 1 in 10 chance? I'm pretty sure it's more (14 percent with a life total of 20).Quote:
Originally Posted by m03
Your not serious are you?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulletus
He obviously means Serum Powder.Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Gilmore
It's only 14% if cast on turn 1, so that's a 1/7 chance. This number drops with every card drawn.Quote:
Originally Posted by Proz0r
I figured a 1/10 estimate was a good assumption for an average game where you don't God-hand the first turn (maybe 1 mana shy), and manage to make it to turn 3 before either taking on measurable damage from creatures or outright winning, since the creature drops tend to start around turn 2.
So 1/8 or 1/9 would be a more accurate assumption, now that I think about it.
It seems like one of the major questions for belcher's main deck is whether or not to include Spoils of the Vault. We have a question of power vs. consistency, spoils offers to streamline the deck and increase its speed but possibly at the cost of a game loss. I think the best way to really analyze this card is to start with a purely statistical analysis and let people take from that what they will.
a page or two back ratzes posted this:
If you have 53 cards left in the deck, spoils has a:
(49!*(53-20)!)/(53!*(49-20)!) = 13.97% of killing you searching for a 4 of.
If you have 52, (48!*(52-20)!)/(52!*(48-20)!) = 13.28%
If 51, (47!*(51-20)!)/(51!*(47-20)!) = 12.59%
If 50, (46!*(50-20)!)/(50!*(46-20)!) = 11.90%
this is all assuming you are at 20 life.
now let's assume you are playing 3 copies of spoils MD which seems to be the general consensus for people who run them. This gives you roughly a 37% chance of drawing one in your opening hand (rounding up a tad).
also suppose the tournament you're playing in will have 5 rounds of swiss and a top 8 - if you make it to the finals the most games you could possibly play is 24, so it is fair to estimate that in about 9 of those games spoils will be in your opening hand.
If you play spoils every game that you draw it, you should lose 1 game because of the card (keep in mind I have been rounding up whenever possible).
In my experience belcher mulls itself into oblivion at least this often - and you must consider that having even one copy of spoils in your deck will reduce the number of times you need to mull.
So, what to take from this? Personally I play two copies of spoils in my list and most tournaments that I take it to will not have 5 rounds of swiss plus a top 8. This analysis is far from exhaustive but I thought it might help to shed some light on the debate.
Yeah I think I meant Serum Powder. The one that gives a free mulligan. I would think this lets you run 56 card decks.
Theres also that random card regrowth that might be breakable with mana accell in the new set.
Serum Powder is not the same as running a 56 card deck. It forces you to mulligan if you have it in your hand because it is a completely dead card, cannot produce mana (because of the investment), and it has the disadvantage of completely screwing you over if you end up removing your one Taiga along with your hand when you use the Serum Powder. GR Belcher needs more mana acceleration, not fluf like Serum Powder.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulletus
Unless Monolith is unbanned or you're in the Dark Ritual/Bayou crowd, anything you put in that slot is pretty much fluff any way, so you may as well pick your poison.Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Gilmore
I think we had this conversation a few pages back about Serum Powder: It's not great but at the same time I think everyone is pretty much aware it can reset your hand. The only problem is, you're giving up a precious acceleration or win condition for it (same goes for Wraith - you don't know what you're drawing into). It all depends on your style. If you're a more conservative player, chances are you'd prefer to play Serum Powder. If you're not, you obviously wouldn't.
From what little testing I did, by FAR the BIGGEST problem with Serum Powder is that it tells your opponent that you're playing Belcher, which is absolutely murder when you're on the play in G1 - it tells them to mull for answers. Were it not for that, the effect would probably be worth it.
Belcher should in no way be running Street Wraith or Serum Powder - or Manamorphose. This is not "Bauble Burn" or anything like the sort. These are replacement cards that, while functioning for a subtle purpose, serve no real effect other than thinning your deck out and drawing into something potentially irrelevant. It's all about the opening hand. Does Storm really matter when you can already Empty for twelve? Just take your opening seven and deal with it from there. If you have to mulligan, then do it. But don't sacrifice acceleration (the key to the deck, people) for mana-fixing cards in a deck that packs over thirty percent acceleration already. Remember, there is a difference between acceleration and mana production. Will it help you draw into that Belcher or Wish? Maybe. But ask yourself this:Quote:
Originally Posted by Nihil
Are you willing to take that chance playing at Worlds or a 50+ person tournament?
I just tested a list with 4 street wraith, and I didn't had any mulligan problem. The list I play might be flooded with mana acceleration (I don't have the list right now, since I can't open MWS), but how often does it happen when Street Wraith could be in your opening hand? Say your opening hand consists of:
Lion's Eye Diamond, Lotus Petal, Rite of Flame, Desperate Ritual, Goblin Charbelcher, Street Wraith and a Burning Wish.
I would definetely keep this hand. If you cycle Street Wraith, you can run into 1*taiga, 4*land grant, 3*lotus petal, 3*rite of flame, 3*desperate ritual, 4*seething song, 4* simian spirit guide, 4* tinder wall, 4* elvish spirit guide or even 3* street wraith. In total, that's 30 (with the street wraith, otherwise it's 30). 30/53*100=56,6% of winning the game now.
This might be a very wierd scenario, as it not directly kills you if you miss. You just go (you know the drill) petal, rite, desp. rit, LED, Burning, resp crack LED grabbing ETW, making twelve gobs.
But consider the situation: Often the cycle with street wraith has a greater chance of winning the game rather than giving the opponent a timewalk. How big does this win-% need to be to keep the opening hand.
I'm testing a lot of combo decks at the moment, and belcher's one of them. I post my list later if you want to see it. It's nothing fancy, but I think it's pretty good.
I agree that Street Wraith and Serum Powder don't belong in the deck. But how can you claim that Manamorphose has no place when you yourself have had success with Wild Cantor in your list? Manamorphose is not replacing any acceleration; rather, it simply seems like an improvement for that mana-fixing slot. I'm curious as to what your rationale is for thinking otherwise.Quote:
Originally Posted by A Legend
Well here's my reckoning behind playing Wild Cantor:
Wild Cantor only costs one to play. You need to be able to use that additional mana for something really important. Like, Desperate Ritual or even Burning Wish. Seriously, though: Why would someone Rite of Flame or Desperate Ritual into Manamorphose?
To draw a card, of course. :cool: /sarcasm.
Wild Cantor can swing, it can block, and it costs one - perfect for Dark Ritual. You don't want to accelerate into a Manamorphose, get your two mana back, then draw into X, when you have Y in your hand that wins the game anyways.
I'm going to try and say this slowly so people can understand:
Bel...cher...does...not...need...man...uh...fix...ing. :cool:
Wild Cantor is what again?Quote:
Originally Posted by A Legend
Wild Cantor is a creature that adds one of any color to your mana pool and costs one.
I should have said: Any other predominant mana-fixers. Apologies.
Wild Cantor also:
~ Stores mana, in case the need to, you know, activate a Belcher arises and it isn't turn 1.
~ Removes Bridge from Below from the game.
~ Blocks Goblin Lackey
~ Swings for 1
~ Costs a single mana
~ Sucks.
Seriously, if we're comparing "Shitty card in Belcher A" to "Shitty card in Belcher B," that's fine, but remember you're debating over what card sucks less.
Sigh of relief.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightmare
So they can cast Tinder Wall and Dark Ritual afterwards, of course.Quote:
Originally Posted by A Legend
Or heck, maybe even two Tinder Walls, if you had that kind of hand.
The draw almost always gives you either mana acceleration or something that can be imprinted on Chrome Mox. Not that I would count on the draw doing anything useful, but it's better than nothing.
A better question would be, if Manamorphose didn't cantrip, would it still be considered as a replacement for Wild Cantor?
It doesn't really matter. Personally, I've had a tremendous amount of success with the deck and Cantor and I am not about to cut him out until I see a feasible reason to.
What mana sources are you running that can cast Rite of Flame, but not Tinder Wall? I mean, there's Chrome Mox, but that's like, the least reliable mana source you have.Quote:
Originally Posted by m03
Plus one to Storm, of course. And the potential of drawing into another mana source, free or otherwise, that nets you ANOTHER spell for Storm.Quote:
Originally Posted by A Legend
Wild Cantor is, in my experience, the absolute weakest card in the deck and I've been looking to replace him forever. Manamorphose is the best candidate for the job.
"Storing mana" seems like a pretty weak excuse. In order for this to be viable, either you drew the lone Taiga in the deck, flashed your hand to fetch it out with Land Grant, or used Chrome Mox mana to cast Wild Cantor and then passed the turn. To me, those hands need to be tossed back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nightmare The Great
Fair enough. I didn't think my logic through on the first example. The second is valid, albeit less likely to occur. Though, it's happened quite a few times during testing.
Worst case scenario for a belcher player (next to mulling into oblivion) is when you open with an amazing draw only to get stifled/orim’s chanted/whatevered after you blow most or all of your acceleration ramping up to go for a kill. This is where manamorphose has a critical advantage over wild cantor. The important thing is that manamorphose is potentially +2 storm count as opposed to +1 from cantor. In other words, you can often hold more cards back when using manamorphose because you reach critical storm more quickly (even if you only get to hold one extra card back it is still significant) – which just makes it easier to recover from a foiled first attempt.
I'm not trying to say that manamorphose is strictly better than wild cantor in this deck, just that it is definatley worth testing for the spot.
I'm just wondering: Why would someone cast Manamorphose and keep a hand without a win condition in it already...? Is the replacement draw really that essential when all you need to do is end up somehow having X+2 red mana at most? All you need is one red for hard-casting Warrens or having two red mana to Wish for it and then to cast the side-board Warrens. I mean, if you want to play Manamorphose you can, but for all intents and purposes it's up to the player and it really makes no difference. Is there really a difference between twelve and fourteen tokens when your opponent is on a two-turn clock anyways? In fact, all you're really doing is burning more cards so your opponent can Explosives away everything you made. At least (and I use that term loosely) Cantor can stay in play if that's the situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaynel
OR, and stick with me here, cause I know you guys can do it - Your opponent didn't let you goldfish all over their face, and you're rebuilding to like, activate Belcher or something. Who knew? I can't tell you how many times I've seen a Belcher player sit with a land, an untapped Belcher, and a Spirit Guide in hand. Let's say your next draw is either Cantor or Manamorphose. You either cantrip, losing your second mana source in the process and hoping for another mana source off the top, or you play a Cantor, invest literally nothing but a card into it and have the mana to activate Belcher next turn.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaynel