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Played a lot of games last night with Miracles on stream using the M14 rules changes. http://www.twitch.tv/oarsman79/b/432079545
If you are skipping through it looking for something specific, the order opponents is:
mirror for six games, half boarded
elves for two games
RUG delver for eight games, half boarded
Shardless BUG for three games
Since every now and then someone comes back to how many lands you should run, I wrote this up using hypergeometric distribution. Obviously drawing things like Top, Brainstorm, and Ponder can change things, but I think that this is fair starting point and can be helpful.Quote:
Originally Posted by sauce
These are the %'s of getting the stated outcomes.
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/newuploads/fo8er.jpg
You can interpret this as you will, but I think that generally this shows that between 21 and 23 lands has a very minimal impact on your opening hand. Where the number of lands makes the most different is when looking at drawing X land by turn X. Of course, looking further turns out also greatly increases your chance of having a Top/cantrip.
Thanks for the work, that info can be extended to all constructed formats. The most striking number from that sheet is the 48.98. In case of No library manipulation, you have a chance that's Less than a coin flip to reach 4 lands by turn 4.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dzra
Yes, Top, Brainstorm, and fetchland would increase that 48.98; but 51.02 is basically the horrible scenario of not reaching 4 lands by turn 4, given you keep your opening 7 and you most likely make 2 Land drops but stuck at that. Think about that, under no Top/Brainstorm/Fetchland, you have a chance that's greater than half of the time; Without fetchland, turn 1 Top might just reveal 3 non-land cards.
This bothers me, because as sdematt has mentioned, you need to make your land drops. Why not start with a probability to ensure you can Naturally make your 4 Land drops that's greater than a coin flip?
This is so much better than MTGO stream, cause you have more people talking to keep the audience entertained; and Joe is less distracted, at least it appears like that. Once you guys solve the life total representation issue, it would be perfect.Quote:
Originally Posted by oarsman
regarding delver:
1. I see that Flusterstorm is doing work, looking good.
2. When unknown opponent goes turn 1: land delver, that pretty much reveals the deck. In this case, shouldn't we just follow the sdematt canon: you want to use the first four turns as mana development. Don't actually DO anything? Don't play turn 1 land-top into Daze... come on~! Later on, Flusterstorm is good again, to cover the EtA. I don’t understand why you are somewhat disappointed with Flusterstorm. It was relevant every time you have it in your hand, except the time he Clique you. Even against BUG, that Flusterstorm saved Joe’s Clique.
Man, I have found Venser to be an all-star all-around, his awesomeness includes:
-Flash in during opponent's attack to bounce one creature and block another.
-"Pseudo-Mangara" with a Karakas
- Bounce Planeswalkers, troublesome enchantments and artifacts
Anyone else have some cool Venser tech they'd like to share? I'm always looking for new ways to exploit his abilities.
How many hands are keepable without Top or a Cantrip to begin with? only ones that have a clear plan to live for 4-5 turns anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by twndomn
To name a few:Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle
Live the dream by bouncing a permanent in response to a hellbent infernal tutor.
Save cb from abrupt decay
Liliana hellbent +1
Return an ancestral visions that came off suspend
Draw a card with top, (bouncing it in resp to draw) not entirely amazing, but still a nice trick
Also, bounce someone's fifth mana source after they've Pact of Negationed you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Aetherick
I hear putting it in off Show and Tell is pretty good. :cool: (/not-so-humble-brag)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle
In the late-late-late game, you can bounce an O-Ring with the trigger on the stack.
I agree that adding enough lands to "consistently" reach 4 land by turn 4 with zero manipulation is unreasonable. You have to account for the fact that most of your games will involve Top or Brainstorm, whether or not it was in your opener. However, I don't think it's fair to say that openers without Top or cantrips are unkeepable. I can think of quite a few no-manipulation, 2-3 land hands that are keepable or even good, but you game plan will require you to topdeck a land or two over the next several turns. (Basically any hand that is 2-3 land, 2-3 disruption/removal, 1-2 CB/RIP, and Jace)Quote:
Originally Posted by alphastryk
Also, here's a few more stats.
http://s8.postimg.org/xos8brbwl/Land_Stats_2.jpg
The latter is useful when trying to estimate your chances of making your next land drop after a mainphase Brainstorm.
On the topic of the DnT matchup, has anyone considered a pair of Engineered Plague on Humans? It gets rid of Mom, Thalia, and Mangara. You can also bounce it with Venser and replay it (or just play a second copy) on Horror or Elemental for Revoker and Flickerwisp or even Wizards for Mangara and Aven Mindcensor. It also helps a tone in the Goblins and Elves matchup and also keeps Lingering Souls at bay. If Young Pyromancer ever becomes a thing, it also nukes it alongside Delvers, Grim Lavamancer, and Bob.
@Qweerios:
As a dedicated annoyingcreatures.dec player, I think you'd want to consider punishing fire before e-plague. Not to say e-plague isn't bad, but I feel like red could definitely provide answers (punishing fire or not). Also, if you make your mana base worse, that just makes it better for me. Remember, you can just wait the game out.
The general plan against you guys is "protected Karakas + Thalia", so any part of that you can shut off is nice.
Also [card]Sulfur Elemental[/card]
I recently realized that I have all the cards to build this deck so I want to give it a spin. I chose a black splash over red because I prefer mixing counterspells with discard against combo, and because I feel like black has the perfect silver bullets for this deck's dreaded matchups. Here is my list open to criticism, I have done only very limited testing:
Creatures (3)
2 Vendilion Clique
1 Venser, Shaper Savant
Spells (24)
4 Brainstorm
4 Force of Will
2 Spell Pierce
2 Counterspell
4 Swords to Plowshares
4 Terminus
2 Entreat the Angels
2 Vindicate
Others (11)
4 Sensei's Divining Top
3 Counterbalance
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Sorin, Lord of Innistrad
Lands (22)
1 Karakas
1 Marsh Flats
4 Flooded Strand
4 Polluted Delta
3 Tundra
2 Underground Sea
4 Island
2 Plains
1 Swamp
Sideboard (15)
4 Thoughtseize
2 Flusterstorm
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Enlightened Tutor
1 Dread of Night
1 Engineered Plague
1 Porphyry Nodes
1 Rest in Peace
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Pithing Needle
1 Engineered Explosives
So far I have Porphyry Nodes and Supreme Verdict in the flex slots. Sorin may be win-more but I definitely prefer him to Elspeth because he is easier to cast, the tokens have lifelink, his ultimate is much more relevant and comes down a turn earlier. I want to know which is better between the 2nd Counterspell and the 4th Counterbalance? Do lists nowadays play 4 FoW main or 3 main 1 side? Aside from the SnT matchup, Venser is somewhat of a let-down relative to his cost, what do you guys think? I initially had a 2/2 split of Terminus and Verdict in the main with 2 Terminus in the side but I really didn't like having to work my way to double white on T4 and taping out for a sweeper. Looking forward to some feedback.
**EDIT** added clarity/explanation
Since you're splashing Black, isn't 1 SB Notion Thief worth it? I get that running Vindicate helps to answer opposing Jaces, but you'd still be at a disadvante vs. control decks splashing red (at least during Jace wars).Quote:
Originally Posted by Qweerios
I do like Sorin over Elspeth, the lifelink clause seems quite relevant.
No Humilty in the SB?
I think I'd like a 23rd land somewhere in there; although I'm not sure what to cut.
I would also go up to 4 SB slots vs graveyard decks (I'm counting 3 right now: Cage, RIP, and E. Tutor). Maybe Relic of Progenitus?
You could squeeze some Red hate in the SB should your meta require it. Sphere of Law maybe...
Wild thought: Given we're running Top, is Dark Confidant out of the sideboard an option for the control mirror? Our curve is high as hell, but if we resolve top and bob, they're probably not running much (any?) removal post board.
I actually like Notion Thief very much, it would definitely be a great asset against Jace/Ancestral Visions/Strix/Brainstorm decks.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Treefolk Master
The 23rd land is a heavy consideration as well, I meant to ask about that too. A 2nd Marsh Flat or a 5th Island would be very welcomed. Then again, what to cut for it? The 2nd Counterspell and the 2nd Vindicate are about the clunkiest spells I can find, and they are both crucial CMC for the CB curve. How does that basic Swamp look? And if I cut a Vindicate or Sorin (or move him to the SB)?
I think a 2nd Enlightened tutor would do better than a 3rd GY hate card. I find GY hate to be extremely narrow, but I also don't know how bad the Dredge or Reanimator matchups are (I assume they aren't abysmal with so many sweepers and counterspells).
Is burn that bad of a matchup to warrant Sphere of Law? Don't they just scoop to CounterTop?
**EDIT**
I ditched Humility. Isn't it a no-go with Entreat?
If I had to cut Vindicate or Counterspell I'd go for Vindicate, since I think we're at the absolute minimum of 2 drops to maintain something close to a Counterbalance curve.Quote:
Originally Posted by Qweerios
I'd like the 5th island over the 2nd Marsh Flat.
The basic swamp does look a bit sketchy, I'll admit that; although I do not want to jump onto conclusions without giving the deck a spin (Spin, top, you get it? no?) first.
I do like Sorin; although he might be too cute. The 2nd ability isn't extremely relevant. I'll try to give it a go.
Graveyard hate, while obviously crushing Dredge and Reanimator, is also extremely solid against anything running Deathrite Shaman (which usually implies Tarmogoyfs), Threshold, Punishing Fire.dec, Lingering Souls (a card which is suprisingly annoying against us, although you're running Dread of Night, which obviously helps a ton against it). Btw Dread of Night is awesome.
Burn isn't that bad; and Countertop does screw them over, although a smart burn player (or a squirrel) can push some damage through it. I had considered Sphere of Law vs. Punishing Fire and Goblins. I find that games I lose vs. Jund in the late game involve Punishing Fire doing the last bits of damage and me being unable to stop it given that all my Counterbalance have died to Decay.
Humility makes Entreat quite bad, I'll give you that. But having it in hand essentially blanks opposing Show and Tells (unless they're trying to get Omni out), plus being awesome against any creature deck (I have fond memories of crushing people with weird Humility interactions when playing UW Landstill).
Moat should also be considered, since it blanks a lot of stuff. The BG decks have abandoned Grip and gone down to 1 (or 0) Pulses with the implementation of Abrupt Decay, so landing Moat suddenly slows them down to Deathrite and/or Burn (should they be playing red). If your Legacy scene isn't quite developed; Moat crushes all the crappy creature decks people are bound to bring to the board. Please note this is not to say that it does not shine in a competitive environment. Although blanking their entire deck with a 350 dollar card is probably not the best way to get new people into the format.
@Qweerios: I mentioned yesterday how valuable Venser has been for me (I'm playing e "Legendary Miracles" UW Build). I have used him for some of the really obvious things, like:
-Bouncing Omniscience during a SnT
-Flashing in during opponent's attack to bounce one creature and block another.
-Making him a "Pseudo-Mangara" with a Karakas
-Bouncing Planeswalkers, troublesome enchantments and artifacts
And alphastryk, Aetherick, Dzra, and Jakgotbak chimed in with some other possibly not-so-obvious tech that definitely increases his value, specifically:
-Bounce a permanent during a Storm player's Hellbent Infernal Tutor
-Save Counterbalance from Abrupt Decay or other Permanents from removal
-Bounce Liliana during a +1 when there are no other cards in opponent's hand
-Bounce an Ancestral Vision coming into play off suspend
-Bounce Sensei's Divining Top in response to drawing a card from it
-Live the dream by bouncing a permanent in response to a hellbent infernal tutor.
-Bounce someone's fifth mana source after they've Pact of Negationed you.
-In the late-late-late game, bounce an O-Ring with the trigger on the stack.
Since this deck can do a great job of durdling, I almost always find him, and he's almost always useful. He's also particularly good with a Countertop lock in place.
Also, I really like the Black Splash idea (it was the first version of Miracles I played, and all for Vindicate). I think Notion Thief is a necessity if playing UWb. Flash creatures are so great in this deck.
I don't much care for Black mostly because REB is such a house. Vindicate is awesome and I can't lie and say that I wouldn't love to run my two pack foils, but REB is just too good. Also, Sulfur Elemental deals with Thalia and Death and Taxes really well (although admittedly does nothing to Goblins).
Funny story. So I was living the dream today against Omniscience. On the play I go turn 2 Ethersworn Canonist off Karakas + Tundra. Seems solid. Turn 3 and 4 I swing and pass. On his turn 4 he casts some spell (Thoughtseize I think?) and I cast Venser to bounce. With three more land in play, he has to pass. I untap and play my fifth land. Now, for the rest of the game he can only cast one spell per turn, which I then use Karakas + Venser to bounce back to his hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kyle
First of all, here's the list of Black cards: Dread of Night, Engineered Plague, Vindicate (especially after M14 rule change), Duress/Inquisition, Massacre, Sorin, and Notion Thief. Dread of Night > Engineered Plague. Sorin makes Black tokens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Qweerios
Second, Humility and Entreat are different things. It's meant to screw Sneak and Show, Nic-fit.
Third, your understanding of Legacy graveyard is questionable. Most Legacy decks utilize graveyard, yes even combo decks. Many decks run Goyf and Deathrite Shaman. MD RiP is Not narrow at all, as matter of fact, some Miracle Top 8 lists have 3 RiP MD.
Fourth, yes, Burn is a bad match-up, here're some horrible Miracle Match-up pre-SB:
1. 12-Post
2. Burn
3. Goblin
Fifth, you are running Angel Legend version, hence you should look into Joe/Oarsman's list (SCG Seattle), which has double Karakas.
Last but not least, I am still a believer in graveyard utilization. You have to hate it or join it. Most common way to utilize graveyard for Miracle is Snapcaster Mage. Worth the consideration, but might not be worth it for your meta. Like I just mentioned, you should look into Joe's list, which has 1 RiP MD and more in SB.
Artifact (4)
4xSensei's Divining Top
Enchantment (3)
3xCounterbalance
Instant (17)
4xBrainstorm
2xCounterspell
4xForce of Will
3xSpell Pierce
4xSwords to Plowshares
Creature (3)
2xVendilion Clique
1xVenser, Shaper Savant
Planeswalker (4)
4xJace, the Mind Sculptor
Sorcery (7)
3xEntreat the Angels
4xTerminus
Land (22)
2xArid Mesa
2xCelestial Colonnade
4xFlooded Strand
4xIsland
1xKarakas
3xPlains
2xScalding Tarn
4xTundra
This is the miracle list ive been trying out and I was wanting any advise or if I should add or drop cards; also what do you guys think about supreme verdict in there and what would I replace
I disagree on Burn. If they have a creature heavy opener, you destroy them with Terminus. Counterbalance + Top shuts down half of their deck. I've found that the only way you lose is if they somehow land a Sulfuric Vortex and you cannot get rid of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by twndomn
There's also a gazillion tricks you can do with Swords on you own dudes. Like make a some small number of angels and Swords one to gain life.
You can actually stop Fireblast with Counterbalance thanks to Terminus. No Countertop decks of the past have been able to do that.
If you're playing the Legendary build, you have to play well to win; and tapping too many lands at the wrong time might cost you the game.
If you're playing Energy Field its actually much, much better.
The other 2 match ups you mentioned, 12-Post and Goblins, are, sadly, terri-bad, 12-Post more so. Its so bad you'd have to dedicate so much of your SB to adress it that you just dismiss it on grounds of small tournament representation.