Elves/Death & Taxes/Randomness/Chalice Decks/Burn.Quote:
Originally Posted by d0nkey
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Elves/Death & Taxes/Randomness/Chalice Decks/Burn.Quote:
Originally Posted by d0nkey
After I hopefully don't scrub out of Standard this weekend, I'll be running this in Kansas City.
4 Gemstone Mine
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Tropical Island
3 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Rite of Flame
4 Dark Ritual
3 Infernal Tutor
4 Burning Wish
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Duress
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Ad Nauseam
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Pithing Needle
2 Chain of Vapor
1 Void Snare
1 Thoughtseize
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames
but you have abrupt decay for those decks too, and pithing needle curbs elves and randomness at the same time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
Couldn't you move one of those CoV for the Trop and then have that open slot in the main?
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Pithing Needle
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Tropical Island
1 Void Snare
1 Thoughtseize
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames
I'd say this SB looks pretty balanced, regardless of what you use that 60th slot for.
I would vote for this -1 Chain, +1 Thoughtseize.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
Yeah I'd rather try Bayou too (casts more relevant spells), but Bayou+Volcanic doesn't cast Decay...Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
I still have to test the Taiga. If I like it, I will post it here.
There's nothing else I want to play in the main, that's the issue. What exactly does Needle do against Elves? Decay is often pretty slow, while Chain doesn't take a full turn to cast – especially against Death & Taxes.Quote:
Originally Posted by wonderPreaux
Also, I like how we're arguing about an off color land to cast a two-to-three of in our deck. We're adding in Tropical to increase consistency while casting Decay. Taiga can't do this as it doesn't cast Ponder.
I'm going to walk through my thought process here:
I agree with adding the 3rd Chrome Mox and Tropical Island into the main-deck as I have found the drop in artifact mana post Ad Nauseam quite noticeable. The 13th land has always been something of a toss-up and is awful at times, but I don't think anyone can argue that the rise in consistency is a welcome addition.
Cabal Ritual was fine for me over the period we have been using it, even though getting threshold was against our, ideally, turn 1/2 kill. Both Cabal Ritual and Chrome Mox are great after casting Ad Nauseam, but one is much better with mana floating and the other improves our Ad Nauseam's with 0 floating. I often cast my Ad Nauseams with the latter being the case. For this reason, I think I'd rather have the 3rd Chrome Mox despite it being awful in multiples.
With 1 gone, that leaves just 1 Cabal Ritual. I wouldn't run just 1 Cabal Ritual due to a lack of Infernal Tutor synergy, which is why I'm ok with the Tropical Island being switched into the maindeck. It's not thrilling, but it does free up a sideboard slot which is likely better than our other options for that 60th card.
I'd be fine with moving the Tropical Island back to the sideboard if we could free up another slot so 2 Cabal Ritual fit, but the only thing I could even suggest cutting would be the 3rd Duress and I'm not sure if I can recommend that.
One thing worth noting is that now, without Cabal Ritual, the sideboard Infernal Tutor becomes worse as generating enough mana for those loops is harder. The addition of Cabal Ritual was a key argument for that change in the first place. This was also an influence behind the removal of Diminishing Returns from the sideboard, as Past in Flames gained a lot of strength from Cabal Ritual.
I haven't missed Diminishing Returns, but without Cabal Rituals main-deck, there's a chance that I would rather have the 60th card as the 4th Infernal Tutor main-deck than a Tropical Island (for Game 1).
That said, there are a lot of other advantages to having the Infernal Tutor in the sideboard - the flexibility is really nice; effectively allowing one to convert one tutor into another. It also provides a little defense against cards like Surgical Extraction. Having lived with these perks for a while now, I'm not sure I'd ever want to go back to playing without them.
On that note, if we're cutting Cabal Ritual and going with the 3rd Chrome Mox again, we are firmly back in the camp of being the best T1/2 Ad Nauseam deck we can be. So with that in mind, despite its flaws, making Burning Wish able to fetch Ad Nauseam is probably the correct choice.
I'd love to hear all your thoughts on this, but for now I'm rolling with -2 Cabal Ritual, +1 Tropical Island, +1 Chrome Mox.
Bryant, there was a time in the not too distant past when you had multiple Thoughtseize main-deck as you did not want to be caught in situations were your discard could not hit a Vendilion Clique, Hatebears etc. Royce disagreed and ran Duress. At this time you stated that the Duress could be correct and that you would consider cutting Massacre, but if one ran the main-deck Duress list that the Massacre was probably required.
Could you talk a little about your thought process here? I assume the life-loss was simply too great, but it could just as easily be metagame flucuations that changed your mind on these points. Thanks.
Well, that's my opinion on the main-deck changes. This is getting too long, so I'll post my thoughts on the sideboard later.
We seem to share similar thought patterns in a lot of aspects. However, I still would like to keep Infernal in the sideboard as it's not difficult to pull off without Cabal Ritual. Watch my match versus Todd Anderson from this past weekend, I accomplished it game one. Not to mention, Wish for Empty is effectively stronger now as we can Wish for Infernal to grab Empty the Warrens generating more "bros".Quote:
Originally Posted by vercadium
It appears to me that hatebear decks are at a low, I haven't faced them in multiple events or if I have I just ran them over. Thoughtseize's lifeloss just isn't worth it at the moment, it could be if those decks picked up again or we could just add Massacre back in.
Hi again,
I've been storming around for 2 years, but I recently changed to the UWR delver to defeat a specific deck... (and by specific, i mean someone specific)
So, I have a lot of trouble beating omnitell decks.... Is it a hard matchup for TES? or should I just ANT him, for it has a better matchup against this deck...?
Agreed on all of the above. At a glance, it does seem like a big increase, but it's really just 2 mana extra and opens up a lot of lines. Honestly, I had forgot to consider that it adds to the strength of Empty the Warrens. That's a great point and a pretty significant boon. Given that I already decided to stick with the sideboard Infernal Tutor prior to considering that, any doubts I had have now been allayed. Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
I'm writing up my thoughts on the sideboard at the moment.
I haven't found Omnitell difficult, I believe it's a favourable match-up. They're quite a slow combo deck, so value your discard highly and play as the aggressor. Test the matchup and be aware of its intracies. There's a fair bit of depth to playing against Cunning Wish, so be sure you're knowledgeable about the options they have.Quote:
Originally Posted by seilaquem
Pithing Needle targets...
Wasteland
Sensei's Divining Top
Sneak Attack
Griselbrand
Stoneforge Mystic
Fetchlands
What else? (Keeping Gitaxian Probe in mind...)
DRS burn/healQuote:
Originally Posted by RaNDoMxGeSTuReS
Symbiote/Quiron
Cephalid Coliseum
Candelabra
Eye of Ugin
Aether Vial
Engineered Explosives
Equipment cards
Planeswalker cards
Charbelcher/Undercity Informer
Dark Depths/Thespian's Stage
Seige-Gang Commander
Cursecatcher
Forgemaster
Rishadan Port
EDIT:
Goblin Welder
Grindstone
Scavenging Ooze
Relic of Progenitus/Tormod's Crypt/Nihil Spellbomb
Queasy Pridemage
Knight of the Reliquary
Man-land Cards
Grim Lavamancer
Vampire Hexmage
Sterling Grove
Academy Ruins
That's some relevant and less-than-relevant targets to keep you interested
Edit: i think the Applications against combo decks like Belcher and Oops! all Spells! is highly relevant.Quote:
Originally Posted by RaNDoMxGeSTuReS
P.S.: You can kill ALL DRS abilities not just 2 as the ability removes a land to add a mana to you manapool and is ergo not a mana-ability
I agree, fuck those dream-crushersQuote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
re: DRS, wow, that is pretty cool
the question is: will you side in both nedles vs BUG Tempo and variants - meaning you now have targets for their A.D.?Quote:
Originally Posted by wonderPreaux
I'm not sure if they take them out all A.D., if so then could be relevant. I really think DRS is not a bad issue or at least a good reason to side in 2 specific cards for it, maybe sure it handles Wasteland, is enough? I don't think so
Anyway I would like to analyze how would you side p.nelde vs some archetypes.
I could include the card in Miracles, S&T, Charbelcher, reanimator. - I really see the card as a parity between Griselbrand and Senseis, thats why maybe its a good idea, instead of playing more decays and xantids/pyro.
I don't see the card in D&T, BUG, RUG, you have already enough cards vs D&T., maybe vs goblins..., realted to RUG, I dont find neccessary to side in vs this archetype, maybe you can as they dont have artifact destroyed vs you and will not include it. but dont think it's needed, I personally play pyro , so, for those that don't play pyro maybe could be ok...
maybe in Blades, - I would not put it in here either.
EDIT: RaNDoMxGeSTuReS, I try to do my best. I fixed some things, but please don't agregate me to your footer!
That's the tricky point: just because you find targets in your opponents deck, it does not equal boarding PN's. I can see treating Wastelands decks different depending on the shell.
I figure if I'm losing against Daze Aggro decks, it's going to be because of Wasteland. So needle seems like a fine choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Also Pelikanudo? Can you like actually type your posts so I can understand them?
Miracles/Grisel-decks/Charbelcher/Oops: I'm happy bringing in 2 Needles, Needle against Miracles is pretty strong, especially on the play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelikanudo
Painter/Esperblade: I would be fine bringing Needle in here, but it isn't as strong. Maybe a singleton needle would be best. I've only played Needle against Painter once and i just Ad Nauseam'd the following turn, so idek how good it is. I think I do want it against Blade decks, because stopping EE is relevant, and forcing them to tap out for Batterskull delays their already slow clock even more.
D&T/Goblins: Might play one against either, hitting their Vial is potent, but I feel it's not worth as much against D&T because simply discarding their Batterskull can be a decisive win after any sort of EtW play.
BUG w/e: Possibly good against BUG, since the more you can lay on the table, the less they can discard. Idek if I'd mind them having Decay game3 or w/e, because it's irrelevant to interacting with my combo.
RUG Delver: Maybe on the draw it could be good as a one-of, im not sure if wasteland alone is good enough reason for Needle, but just swapping a single ponder for a needle seems fine to me.
Hey guys, I had a situation come up against LED-Dredge and wanted to see what you all thought of it:
Game 1, turn 1, I play a fetch and pass.
Opponent jumps in by playing Cephalid Coliseum, LED. Then Careful Study, cracking LED for red and discarding Faithless Looting + Dredgers. All told, he Dredges around 25 cards, including several Dredgers, 1 Cabal Therapy, 2 Ichorids, 2 Bridges, 2 Dread Returns. However, he discarded one Narcomoeba to LED, and dredged no others. He also didn't dredge a high-value revival target like Flayer/Griselbrand/Iona. He simply flipped half his deck and passed to me.
Turn 2 I lay another land and Brainstorm. My hand before sending 2 back is: Misty Rainforest, LED, Burning Wish, Dark Ritual, Rite of Flame, Gitaxian Probe, Cabal Therapy, Lotus Petal. Now, with an uncracked fetch, LED, and a Lotus Petal, I should have no trouble getting the colors I need, the main issue is what to actually do this turn.
Path 1: Wait. By sending back Burning Wish and Dark Ritual, laying my artifact mana and passing, I am somewhat protected from discard and if no interference comes around, I would have 9 mana for the Ad Nauseam line, which at this point I'm one mana short on. However, that would require cracking 2 fetches, paying a Phyrexian Probe, and getting hit by 2 Ichorids at least. Ad Nauseam with no floating, no land drop, and 10 life maximum. Not fun.
Path 2: Storm out for Goblins. Putting back fetch and Therapy. Probe, pick up Therapy. Crack Fetch for either U. Sea/V. Island, Play Petal. Play Rite and D. Rit. LED, Wish, crack LED in response. Grab Infernal Tutor into Warrens for 18 (1 mana short of being able to play Therapy before Wish and Tendrils for 20, opponent is at 19). Now, flashback the discarded Therapy to kill both Bridges. At this point, the opponent has 19 life, and a deck of all kinds of possible meanness, but 2 fewer Bridges and their big opener already used versus 17 Goblins and an otherwise inactive opponent (I've got 2 lands though, so, that's cool).
Path 3: Gamble on Probe. Putting back fetch and Therapy, crack the initial fetch. Now, if Probe for life hits any of either 3 Petals, 3 LED, 3 Rite or 3 D. Rit, or 4 Infernal Tutor, the game is pretty much won on the spot due to Ad Nauseam from 17. however, if any of the other 34 cards come up, you miss the line. Hitting Cabal Therapy puts you on path 2, not hitting Therapy leaves you with a much worse path 2. Hitting a Brainstorm gives you the chance to hit a combo of I. Tutor + D. Rit/LED, Rite/LED/Petal + Rite/LED/Petal to go off, but that's pretty low odds. Also, you now have no defense from the Cabal Therapying that would doubtless be happening the following turn if a combo comes up because your whole hand is gas.
Path 1 is probably many sorts of awful, but I'd like to see what people think of path 2 and 3.
If I am reading path 2 correct, (Opponent on 19, You have 17 Goblins and he loses his 2 bridges), I kinda like that path the most. Its been a long time since I did probability, but as it stands, he'll have 3 Narco left in his 35 card deck. It seems like all he needs here is a Narcomoeba/Ichorid and a DR Target. However, the one thing that sticks out is that, at least to me, he only has 2 real outs on that route:
1. Griselbrand: I dont believe you can race that, although having the higher life gives you a small chance of maybe doing so (I havent run the math).
2. Flayer into Grave-Troll: Its likely a win for him if he gets this.
It really comes down to if you feel you can win in those 2 turns vs the chance of him hitting that.
Personally, I'd go for path 2 and swing with 15/16 goblins. Leaving one or two back allows you to capitalize on him if he swings with Ichorids with Bridges in the yard. It also doesnt change the clock.
(Disclaimer: I suck at Magic, so take from my words what you will.)
If he hits Griselbrand, he'll just pay 7, dredge his deck, and combo-kill me, so i definitely can't race that. even w/o Flayer I think hitting all the Narc and Bridges would make it impossible for Goblins to make it.Quote:
Originally Posted by kavaki
This is a gamblers deck, take a punt. Personally for me option 2 is the safe one, but if he can only Dredge once next turn, then I would say that's better odds than option number 3.
Just wanna mention that if you shuffle before casting the Probe and hit mana you can cast Ad Nauseam. If you hit something like IT or more cantrips, you can likely kill with a natural count of 10 as well.
It's a bit early to do the math for hitting LED, IT, RoF, DR, Probe, Ponder and Brainstorm and then add another layer of calculation for the cards drawn with the cantrips which also provide the kill if you find LED, RoF, DR or Probe.
Without having done math, the chances to sculpt something deadly here look not that bad. Remember that your opponent gets 2 more turns with the Goblin Route to find more bridges/moebas/Dread Return Targets/etc.
I can see avoiding a headache here and just go for option 2 even if your opponent gets to dump another 25% of his deck during the next two turns, which should be enough to kill you
Edit: I would take a close look at his grave: if he doesn't play Dread Return combo, you have more options
ninjad by lemnear
This is a nice example where I would want to have Returns on side. :tongue:
Then you can safely put back Therapy and land, then fetch and Probe.
If Probe gets you a mana source, just Ad Nauseam him. If not, Returns with UR floating should be good as well.
But anyway, here's the calculation:
- Winner cards you can hit are: 3x Petal, 3x Ritual, 3x Rite, 3x LED, 4x Infernal = 16 cards
- Hitting Cabal Therapy would make situation 2 and 3 the same, so "makes no difference" = 4 cards
- You have 50 cards total left in the deck after fetch shuffle, including 3x Probe
Ponder or Brainstorm make you lose an initial mana source, so chances of going off get slimmer.
Hitting Probe will just allow for anothe draw, so I will not count them in the total. Non-winners = 27 cards
Total amount of cards = 47
So chances for a direct win: 16/47 = 34%
Chances for getting situation 2: 3/47 = 6%
Chances for not directly winning: 58/47 = 60%
If the latter is to happen, going for 16 goblins without Cabal Therapy defense seems a loser. He has two turns, where he will dredge 10+ cards, hit at least one Moeba (he has 90+% chance of hitting one or more), which will allow him to continue the combo. This means he should get enough Zombies to block the Goblins and win later on, not even taking into account the fact that he might have the Flayer of Zealot kill.
So you will probably have to wait a turn. You will have the card drawn from Probe, plus another draw step. That should get you a win the turn after, provided he doesn't kill you with the dredge 5/6 he has next turn, or remove the Wish from your hand with his Therapy.
So, based on this info, what should you do?
My vote goes to option 3 here, since option 2 I estimate gives you a chance to win of below 40%, and option 3 gives you a 34% instant win, and a 40% chance at "the same or better". Main question is: does my estimation for winning % in option 2 make sense? My gut tells me 30-40% but we don't know the Dredge list, so it's very hard to tell.
1) You forgot that drawing a Ponder/BS can make you find RoF or LED too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Asthereal
2) In addition drawing another Probe off a brainstorm can setup another line with LED to fix colors.
3) Hitting another Probe of the initial Probe is relevant for the natural 10-count
4) Yeah, the calculation is complex and I asume the chance to win is about 40% without taking your opponent into consideration.
5) is 40% enough for you?
I'll complete my overview on the deck changes with my thought process on the sideboard changes below.
As a page has past since I discussed the main deck, here are links to the relevant posts - Post #1 & Post #2.
--------------------
Ok, so first off, I think these are 100% locks at the moment. I wouldn't dream of changing them:
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Abrupt Decay
1 Thoughtseize
1 Void Snare
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames
1 Infernal Tutor
That's 11 cards. So the remaining four I reckon can consist of the following possibilities that are, in my opinion, at least defensible:
+<=2 Pyroblast
+<=2 Pithing Needle
+<=2 Chain of Vapor
+1 Abrupt Decay
+1 Thoughtseize
+1 Xantid Swarm
--------------------
Let's break these down:
Pyroblast.
I'm in an awkward place with Pyroblast. It wasn't too long ago it was being proclaimed as the holy grail. It's both amazing and horrible.
So it's ok against anything with counter-spells obviously, with added awesomeness against High-Tide/Omni-Tell etc. But what's it actually good against? i.e. When does its unique trait make it better than other options?
Decks with counterspells that have must-answer blue permanents. The most relevant of these is Meddling Mage. Yes, you can hit Brainstorm, Show and Tell, Counterbalance (before the lock gets online) and a ton of other sweet cards with it too.
So, for me, whether this card is good enough is really down to how much Meddling Mage is out there. The answer? Quite a lot.
I love versatility, I really do. It's great being able to blow up Meddling Mage and not be stuck with a grip of Abrupt Decay when they have Spell Pierce and Force of Will instead. How amazing is that - how can I not play it?
So why is this choice not a lock?
I hate how it is reactive instead of proactive - it's at odds with the core concept of this deck.
Let's be honest, it's absolutely awful with Lion's Eye Diamond and Infernal Tutor. Is that a terminal issue? If our most important spells are Infernal Tutor and Burning Wish, and the ones we most commonly want to protect, how can we even consider the card when the best thing we can protect is Burning Wish when not used with Lion's Eye Diamond?!
It's a good card, but its a reactive card that is only great for us when we use it in a semi-proactive manner (i.e. not protecting our "going off" spells).
A tough decision, we'll talk more about it in the conclusion.
Pithing Needle.
Pithing Needle is powerful against certain decks while still being flexible enough for varied use. One thing that's easily overlooked is that it's castable using any of our initial mana sources which is a fairly big deal in terms of the consistency of the cards we bring in. If you haven't been stuck in a situation were you can't cast the Abrupt Decay in your hand, or you have to break a crucial Lotus Petal to do so, you're lying (or haven't played the deck for long).
I hadn't even thought about Pithing Needle seriously until 2 days ago so I'm finding it difficult to evaluate. Lemenar, how long have you been playing with Pithing Needle now? Could you give me an overview of how the card has been performing for you and what you like and dislike about it?
I really like being able to fight Griselbrand and Sensei's Divining Top with one card. Both of the decks that attack us with these are becoming quite common. This is Legacy, so an important thing to note is that, like Pyroblast, what makes it playable is that it has a myraid of utility.
Chain of Vapor, Abrupt Decay and Thoughtseize.
With the printing of Void Snare (yay!), we no longer need to rely on Chain of Vapor as our only out to a possible Leyline of Sanctity.
It's still a great catch-all answer though, with something semi-relevant you can do with it in most games. I do think we still should have at least one, but the 2nd could be too much.
In this metagame Abrupt Decay is the better removal spell, so a 3rd copy of it instead could be argued (though it's much worse against Thalia, Guardian of Thraben when you do play against it). Also, you don't want to draw too many Abrupt Decay in a single game and with 3 that becomes much more common. It also increases your overall CMC which is relevant - I hate flipping Abrupt Decay with Ad Nauseam.
Thoughtseize is kind of our alternate Chain of Vapor. That might sound ridiculous, but the 2nd Chain of Vapor and 2nd Thoughtseize overlap quite a bit. Both have situations where they are much better than the other, but based on the metagame, I think the 2nd Thoughtseize is preferable.
I'm sticking with 2 Abrupt Decay and I've decided against the 2nd Chain of Vapor. Whether or not I run the 2nd Thoughtseize will be discussed in my conclusion.
Xantid Swarm.
Xantid Swarm is obviously very powerful against Show and Tell and the other blue decks that have little or no removal. This is Legacy though and that's still quite a narrow criteria no matter how popular these decks get. I personally don't think there's enough of these decks to warrant a 3rd copy. Also, if you resolve one unmolested, you don't want to draw any more. I'll be sticking with just 2.
Conclusion.
So, after that consideration, I think these 12 are locked:
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Abrupt Decay
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Thoughtseize
1 Void Snare
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames
1 Infernal Tutor
With these being our outstanding options for the 3 remaining cards:
+<=2 Pyroblast
+<=2 Pithing Needle
+1 Thoughtseize
I've decided on the 2nd Thoughtseize over the 1st Pyroblast as I think in many situations it can accomplish the same task as Pyroblast, but has more relevant match-ups.
So would I rather have +2 Pithing Needle or +1 Pithing Needle and +1 Pyroblast?
I'm going to hate playing against Meddling Mage from tempo decks, but we don't have a ton of bad stuff to board out in those match-ups anyway. I'm going with +2 Pithing Needle for now.
--------------------
So, finally, I have arrived at my current list:
//Card Draw and Selection (12)
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
//Tutors (7)
4 Burning Wish
3 Infernal Tutor
//Targets (2)
1 Ad Nauseam
1 Empty the Warrens
//Disruption (7)
4 Cabal Therapy
3 Duress
//Ritual Mana (8)
4 Dark Ritual
4 Rite of Flame
//Artifact Mana (11)
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox
//Land (13)
2 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Tropical Island
2 Polluted Delta
2 Flooded Strand
4 Gemstone Mine
//Sideboard (15)
2 Xantid Swarm
2 Pithing Needle
2 Abrupt Decay
1 Chain of Vapor
2 Thoughtseize
1 Void Snare
1 Grapeshot
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Past in Flames
1 Infernal Tutor
Thank you for reading my long posts, I hope they've contributed something productive to the discussion or your understanding. I could just dump a list, but I think how we arrive at our decisions is just as important. If you feel there's factors I haven't considered or you have a different perspective, please let me know and together we can come to the correct decision. :)
Edit2: *SNIP AGAIN!Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Damn, I'm not rusty, I'm starting to doubt myself while I was actually doing fine.
Idea: Probe into Cantrip. Cantrip draws LED, Rite or Petal.
Line for LED: Brainstorm, (fetch), Probe, Cantrip, LED, LED, Petal, Rite, Wish, (sac LEDs), Tendrils = 18 (no IMS to cast our Ritual).
Line for Rite: Brainstorm, (fetch), Probe, Cantrip, LED, Petal, Rite, Rite2, Wish, (sac LED), Tendrils = 18 (no IMS to cast our Ritual).
Line for Petal: Brainstorm, (fetch), Probe, Cantrip, LED, Petal, Petal, Rite, Ritual, Wish, (sac LED), Tendrils = 20 (only way)
So Cantrip finds Petal is a win. The others aren't.
Odds: Ponder sees 4 cards, Brainstorm sees 3 cards, 3 Petals left in 46 cards.
Ponder: 4/46 * 3 = 0,26 and Brainstorm: 3/46 * 3 = 0,20
Seems worth to add, though it's not great odds.
Brainstorm into Probe could also win, losing the Rite, but we need a Petal, Mox, LED, Probe or Ritual to go because miss one Storm:
Line: Brainstorm, (fetch), Probe, Brainstorm (put back Rite, Wish), Petal, Ritual, LED, Probe , (resp sac LED for RRR), Wish, Tendrils = 18
So we need an additional card to cast that costs no mana. Petal (3x), Mox (3x), LED (3x), Probe (2x), Ritual (3x) all work. That's 14 out or 46.
So Brainstorm must find 1 of 3 Probes AND 1 out of 14 other cards in 46 cards total. That's 3/46 * 14/46 * something. I forgot how this works exactly.
Let's just be optimistic and go for 3 here (WILD guess). That's 3/46 * 14/46 * 3 = 0,06 Wow, 6%. So Ponder and Brainstorm both have 26% chance of winning.
Lines:
So chances for a direct win: 16/47 = 34%
Chances for Cantrip into win: 7/47 * 0,26 = 4%
Chances for getting situation 2: 3/47 = 6%
Chances for not directly winning: 58/47 = 56%
So I guess it still all depends on how we evaluate the chances of the Dredge player. I thought we have 35-40% chance to win with 17 Goblins and two Bridges removed, but this greatly depends on what the OP missed that was still in the yard of the Dredge player, and whether the Dredge list has Dread Return into sick stuff or not. The OP said the Dredge player had nothing yet, but that means all the good stuff is probably coming now. Moebas, Ichorids, a new Bridge, perhaps a Dread Return and a target. Who knows what comes up in 11 cards dredged?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Asthereal
Quote:
Originally Posted by vercadium
You gotta risk it to get the biscuit.
call me crazy but that specific hand was perfect for Doomsday in Side plus Shitty IU in base.Quote:
Originally Posted by wonderPreaux
the less worse path would have been D.R.
Related to the question, It all depends on Gitaxian. if it draws nothing, maybe put as many gobs as you can is the less worse option. but I asume the player will do bad things on his next 2 turns, in these situations there are lot of things to evaluate in that moment... anyway..
also maybe an option if you start is just hoping he will not draw 2nd therapy and using fetch to volcanic to pretend to be other deck is likely what I will do.
The points to evaluate are:Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelikanudo
a) can your opponent make up for the 2 lost Bridges within the next two turns to kill 17 goblins?
b) does your opponents grave indicate any combo?
The option to go for goblins and remove the bridges has the best odds of winning this match and puts your opponent under pressure instead of having a 55%+ chance of plain loosing.
I will evaluate the option of:Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
c) Pretending to be a RUG Player meaning he will name FoW AND he will not hit 2nd C.Therapy - evaluate the chances of that, so the question is playing b.s. you can still pretend to be a RUG player, which was the land already in play? as the next turn you just will win, sure if not b) then not c).
EDIT: Seem you're ritgh about hitting bridges maybe.
which are the Chances of drawing a 2nd therapy?
Dunno. Higher than dumping Bridge #3 & #4 to maybe get enough blockers for all the Goblins.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelikanudo
Your plan still requires your opponent to miss with Therapy #1 (as a Dredge player I would blind-name BS). We still have no clue if he even could have disguised himself as RUG or if the first land was an U.Sea
He played Cephalid Colleseum on turn 1. I would imagine he will be able to win after he dredges 15+ cards next turn.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
I would still risk it for the biscuit.
And by risk it, I mean I would lead with probe and see what happens.
Played the list at a local tonight, beating Maverick, UR Delver, Reanimator, (ID with UR Delver), Miracles and Reanimator (5-0-1). Needles were only relevant once, but it wasn't as expected. Needle on Griselbrand forced an Iona naming black, I then made a lethal amount of Goblins. The list felt tight. I did find myself siding in five cards so that I could bring in Tendrils too against Miracles & Reanimator, when doing so I sided out a Therapy. Those are match-ups where the guarantee to hit something turn one over the Duress is huge - just my initial thoughts.
Your experience with Needle is exactly the sort of thing I would expect, actually. It is very good at forcing the opponent down certain lines and, since TES is so adaptable, you can just counter the line you force them on. Out of curiosity, what prompted you to board in Tendrils in the Miracales and Reanimator matches? The natural storm line seems appealing for slow control, but idk what purpose the mained Tendrils serves against reanimator, other than countering iona on red or something.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
You answered your own questions.Quote:
Originally Posted by wonderPreaux
iona naming black is always wrong against TES - same for meddling mage naming infernal tutor.
They should name red (or Burning Wish with Meddling Mage) because this shuts down the kill and ways to escape like void snare)
Exception: the games where we board in Tendrils of Agony but i'm not a huge fan of boarding the 1 copy we have in the mainboard because i don't see any reason to do so.
I'm guessing the boarding was something like:Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
- 1 EtW
- 2 C. Mox
- 1 Ponder
- 1 Cabal Therapy
+ 1 Tendrils of Agony
+ 2 Pithing Needle
+ 2 Abrupt Decay/Xantid Swarm
Do you often bring Tendrils in against Miracles? It's an option that hadn't really occurred to me, usually I try for really fast hands against Miracles, but the natural storm chain seems like a good option if they force the game to go long.
Alas, I'm not sure if I should be flattered that no-one other than Lemnear had any other viewpoints to add to my post yesterday or insulted that no-one else bothered to do so.
Thank you for your reply and insight Lemnear. I haven't played with Pithing Needle yet, so any statements I could make would be mere conjecture. Rest assured I will share my expieriences from testing when I have.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Taiga shouldn't even be a consideration - just look at the colour breakdown of our deck. Tropical Island vs Bayou is the only option for that 13th land. Bayou casts more spells, but Tropical Island adds consistency. I think Tropical Island is the correct choice.Quote:
Originally Posted by Asthereal
Regardless of everyone's opinion on that, with a Tropical Island/Bayou main-deck as the 13th land, what do people think of a 5th fetch-land in place of the second Volcanic Island? I'll miss having that stability and redundancy against Wasteland and also being more vulnerable to Stifle, but it does help our low land count deck hit all its colours more reliably and has the added benefit of being a shuffle effect. Having less fetch-land targets than we have fetch-lands is detrimental in some scenarios though. We ran 1 Volcanic Island for literally years, so this isn't an outrageous suggestion.
Another change I'd consider from my list is:
MD:
-1 Duress
+1 Thoughtseize
SB:
-1 Thoughtseize
+1 Pyroblast
As an aside, I think side-boarding in Tendrils of Agony in the Miracles match-up is pretty strong and I would recommend that as the default option going forward.