Economics?Quote:
Originally Posted by MaximumC
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Economics?Quote:
Originally Posted by MaximumC
Depends on what you mean. If youre a "free market rawr" libertarian type, then sure, you probably think that the maximum possible price is correct because it is the product of market incentives.Quote:
Originally Posted by jrsthethird
That's not the only possible view, though. Just because the market will bear a certain cost doesn't mean it is good. Among other things, it shrinks the pool of potential buyers, making the market less liquid and making it harder for formats to grow. It punishes people who do not view mtg as a finance game and act accordingly. Trading had dried up almost to nonexistence. Remember, mtg got along perfectly well without vendors and speculators racing to the top this efficently for decades. We are not necessarily a community of disinterested strangers; we are all members of a club, a fraternity or sorority of a kind, and perhaps the mtg community is better served if people just control their impulse to maximize profit.
Now, all that said, I agree that the current market system is inevitable. It's a natural result of the self interest of sellers. So, like it or not, you must understand and anticipate the machine to survive in mtg. Personally, I made sure to buy up playsets of pain lands, mirrodin talismans, and madness enablers right after the last pro tour and the Shadows spoilers for exactly this reason: to anticipate the Machine and try to ensure I wouldn't be priced out. That's the new reality, like it or not.
It becomes a lot harder when you're a collector in addition to a player. I have been prioritizing other staples over 7th foil pain land even though they have been on my want list for years. Now I just have 2 7th foil Brushland, and with the price of 7th foil Adarkar Wastes, I don't think I'll ever complete the cycle unless modern bans will have some sort of drastic permanent effect on its prices (which I doubt). Likewise, I have my Japanese foil misprint Talisman of Impulse, but still have to complete the rest of the cycle. It's hard to be anticipatory when you foil out cards.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaximumC
That's always been true, though. People who want to get a foiled out japanese deck gotta work ten times harder for it. I feel ya, but all of the same strategies apply to collectors and to players. You've just got a much harder time snagging exactly what you want quickly because the seller's market for a foil, signed, pro tour draft stamped Gush is much smaller than any ol Gush.Quote:
Originally Posted by bruizar
What exactly is "free" about this market? Supply is (currently) entirely controlled by WotC, who have a state-granted monopoly on the production of our precious cardboard. Granted, there are plenty of people who call themselves libertarians and would defend our current situation "because free market". Actual libertarians, being either anarchists or of an anarchistic bent (and thus usually opposed to copyright in the first place), are more likely to be the ones welcoming our new undetectable counterfeit producing overlords.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaximumC
There's not much point in gnashing your teeth about people who buy out staples that are in short supply. It's an inevitable reaction to the situation that WotC has put us in and stubbornly refuses to fix. Either push for the abolition of the Reserve List, study up on counterfeiting techniques, or (most realistically) push for liberal proxy policies at your local tournaments.
Today's twice-daily insane spike: Scorched Ruins.
http://www.mtggoldfish.com/price/Wea...d+Ruins#online
Not sure I follow this. Are you assigning blame? WotC has always owned the unique right to print cards, and things have never been quite how they are today. The X-factor is the incredible liquidity of the market (buy cards worldwide at the touch of a button, often automatically), the money involved by speculators, and the perfect information shared immediately all over the internet.Quote:
Originally Posted by chris_acheson
"Blame" here falls on the community, not WotC. Enough people have made the self-interested decision that cards should sell for the maximum they can possibly sell for that we now live in a time where cards are racing to the top almost every day.
I agree this situation is inevitable because of supply AND the new muscle of economic actors acting in their own-self interest. I agree that play-test tournaments are an answer. However, the reserve list isn't going away. Ever. If you want it to die, push instead for Wizards to print replacements for reverse list cards that are not functional reprints and do not even come close to violating the spirit of the reserve list. It's not hard for them to do; they just don't for power level reasons. (For example: a Revised dual that scrys for both players when it ETB, or has an option to ETB tapped if you gain 1 life, would compete with or replace Revised duals).Quote:
Originally Posted by chris_acheson
Agreed. I bought a playset of Eyes when they announced another Eldrazi set because I knew they'd go up and thought someday I might like to play 12-post. Now it's 10x the price and I feel like I should sell them just because I know this isn't a permanent situation. Eventually it will get reprinted, or the deck will get nerfed, or something else will rise to the top. Same with Groves, Goblin Guides, SSG, and so on. Prices on some of this stuff are just so high that it's hard to justify not selling, and its absolutely keeping me from playing Modern.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaximumC
I guess my point is that it's getting increasingly hard to see the game amid all the product. Right now it's pretty nice from a financial perspective, but it just doesn't seem sustainable long-term. Then again, folks have been saying the MtG market is due for a crash for 15+ years now, and it somehow keeps defying all expectations.
Fundamentally, it's a really amazing game. Add to that the fact that WotC is bringing in new blood as fast as they can to make the bottom of the pyramid, and... well, we've got time. There's lots of nerds not playing Magic yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Cheese
I get that; but I mean.. that *is* capitalism. If you're on the right side of it (those of us who had goblin guides and other weird cards that have ballooned) you hold the stuff until someone offers a price you're willing to sell at. I hear the "product" vs. "game" but.. same goes for a lot of things. I feel like if it's a thing I'm not using and people want to offer me too much money.. may as well let them.
I also want to point out that the price a market will bear isn't inherently the equilibrium price.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaximumC
What you have is people playing the monopoly game by trying to corner the market (or otherwise control the supply) for specific cards.
So true believers in the free market would have a few problems with calling this a actual free market.
I also want to highlight that you said price de-escalation happens much slower, then price escalation, this is true right now, but I don't know that this will always be true. If this ever changes, hang on, because prices might fall just as fast.
One of the major problems with how cards are priced is that people look at offer prices, and assume they are the market price. Even eBay is a poor representation of a true market price.
But this simply isn't true. I have a Null Rod as do many Legacy players. How much will the price have to inflate for me to sell mine willingly? Well.. the market will stabilize at roughly a value that enough other people will do that. It's not as if Stony Silence isn't a cheap alternative anyway. Stores around the world will still have some number of null rods with or without updated prices; based on what they think people will pay for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by GundamGuy
The price was lower before because it's not a highly necessary card. Someone buying them all at that price and attempting to gouge people will likely be unsuccessful given that there is a card that is exactly the same, but harder to destroy and requires a colored mana. Delver can splash white like Shardless if they want to save money and already have a dual for it, or they can shell out if they super want colorless.
But again, until the price is enough that I go "well.. I guess I may as well get rid of my copy" this *is* market pressure to put my card back into circulation.
True.Quote:
Originally Posted by hymnyou
But Modern and Legacy have a big overlap in staples, so I expect there will be a lot of modern staples in Eternal Masters.
The cards that need reprints the most in my opinion are Tarmogoyf, Liliana of the Veil and Snapcaster, because they're way overpriced considering their "age". All of them are considered Modern cards, although e.g. Tarmogoyf was played heavily in Legacy long before Modern even existed.
That said, I still hope to see Liliana in Shadows over Innistrad Block. And a noticeable lowering of Tarmogoyf prices would require a reprint in a normal set. Sadly Eternal Masters (and several Modern Masters) can't solve the "Tarmogoyf price problem".
Sure, there are a lot of other Legacy staples (not on RL) that need reprint, which won't see print in a Modern Masters. And that's the upside of the upcoming Eternal Masters: a lot of them will probably be in there, too.
Which staple are you referring to; Null Rod, Scorched Ruins, or Big Game Hunter?Quote:
Originally Posted by chris_acheson
I mean people do endlessly piss and moan over the price of dual lands sure, but I think the real sleeping giant lately and the one that MaximumC seems to be focused on is where the tail wags the dog on price points and the cost of cards is entirely given over to speculation, buzz, and artifically inflated prices. You just point at a card and go "THIS IS THE NEW HOTNESS" and maybe top 8 with it, and people just buy em up. Like, come on, what did we learn from Sea Drake? Anything?
Dual lands could never entertain a 500% price spike in a week, but when an outlier card gets bought up for pennies, listed at 12000% markup and then sold off once the bots have adjusted... I mean usually people just laff at the newjacks that bought bad cards at exorbitant prices, so really there's no incentive for this to ever really go away, so....
He mentioned Auriock Champion, Glimmervoid, Doubling Season, etc-seemed like he needed clarification. You will see Legacy cards that modern also plays with I am sure. I do not believe you will see any Modern specific cards at all though.Quote:
Originally Posted by joven
You can blame WOTC for choosing to fist you for Tarmogoyf, that is purely intentional and has been easily solvable problem that they are aware of for years.
I don't really know what you mean simply isn't true. Nothing you said refutes what I said.Quote:
Originally Posted by tescrin
That said I think you are looking at it from an economics 101 prospective, before you learn of all the wrinkles that get in the way of perfectly completive market places and cause market failures.
A couple of points, stores around the world might have some number of null rods without updated prices (arbitrage opportunities) but they also don't have as much market share or market impact. Goat Head Games (who I got a Imperial Seal off of a few years back for well under the market price) isn't able to control prices. Star City Games has enough market access and visibility that depleting there stock of specific cards can actually swing the market.
Now what I am saying is that the whole point of buying out all the Null Rods you can find from the major retailers (Star City Games, Channel Fireball, ect.) is that you are attempting to corner the market (even though as you point out small stores still have them in stock) by taking a majority stake of the market. You don't have to control 100% of a market to manipulate it.
You are somewhat correct that as prices rise new suppliers (players willing to part with there Null Rods) will enter the market... but the mistake you make here is confusing the general concept of suppliers (profit motive) with players who have other motives besides just profit when they decide to buy or sell cards. Many people will see the spike in price of Null Rods as a reason to buy in now (to avoid getting priced out of the game, or as a reason to hang on to there null rods, to avoid having to pay a higher price later) There is a reason that prices are pretty sticky when it comes to Magic, it's because the cards have more value then just the $$$ value. Thinking of the market for magic cards like the market for Soy Beans is a mistake.
More importantly, Stony Silence is not "exactly the same." It's an imperfect substitute. You causally suggest that people will just splash white, as if that has no cost associated with adding a color to your deck... I don't know about you, but if I've learned anything people are willing to play a pretty good premium to not play a suboptimal build of a deck because of card prices.
It's more like these are things I would probably use were I not able to get absurd prices for them that I'm thoroughly convinced are temporary. I didn't sell my Thoughtseizes when they were $65 cards because at the time I was playing them in Legacy, and now that just seems silly. I love playing dumb creature decks, but how long can Guide really stay a $40 card, or Goyf at $200?Quote:
Originally Posted by tescrin
I wish there were something like sabermetrics for cards that could take into account performance and availability to produce a suggested price based on power level. Anyway this discussion should probably move to the prices/reprints thread.
This is a fascinating idea, but I agree, this isn't really the place to be talking about economic theory, or price vs value considerations.Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Cheese
I fully expect this to be Modern Masters 2 instead of Modern Masters 1... as in, not everything people wanted it to be. I think we are going to get a bunch of staples that are cheap, and a bunch of cards that make the draft environment work, and very few high dollar reprints.
When can we expect the official spoilers for EMA to start?
http://markrosewater.tumblr.com/post...-taken-off-the
Seems like the new CEOs are changing things. Let's hope for something sweet guys!
Morning! If you jump on Twitter and follow me @tituschalk, I shall have a very tasty Legacy preview in just under an hour. That should get the ball rolling! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Serch