It requires 2 singleton Goblins and a sacrifice outlet. You're better off with Sharpshoot and the sacrifice outlet.Quote:
Originally Posted by ClearSkies
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It requires 2 singleton Goblins and a sacrifice outlet. You're better off with Sharpshoot and the sacrifice outlet.Quote:
Originally Posted by ClearSkies
The only 1 drop worth considering is Relic beyond Lackey and Vial. Fanatic was awful even before the rules change, but we collectively failed to realize it back then.
Im glad people are adopting War Marshal, chumping appears to be a winning strategy, how weird. Props to mad genius GreenOne for this one!
I havent had the chance to test out Chieftain but it will at least be a 1 of in my list for sure. Im eager to hear results.
Port wont leave my deck, its undisputed. Turning at slight tempo advantage into at game breaking one has won me countless of games. Same for stopping Factories or Mutavaults. Keeping a Moat off the board or just manascrew someone are gravy. The best thing about Port: it taps for mana. Not running it in Mono R is a mistake imo. Caverns is nice but just not on the same powerlevel as Port and 8 colorless lands looks like the maximum amount. I do think this opinion is based on playstyle as I often run Goblins pretty defensively or try to bank on tempoadvantage.
Hard to tell, but probably true.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mantis
Yay!Quote:
Originally Posted by Mantis
I first started playing 3, but it did mess with the curve sometimes. I'd suggest running 3 only in Gemstone Caverns versions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mantis
I'm now running 2, and god is it sexy! I'd never drop below 2 for sure at least in monored. He's actually better than warchief in the late game (when you have a lot of lands in play but just a couple goblins in hand), he's awesome with War Marshal, he let you not overextend much against sweepers and still have a good clock (matron/ringleader/war marshal+chieftain = 4/5/6 DMG = you're at least on par with a Goyf). He helps the alpha strike strategy a lot, and actually quite functions like Piledriver 5-6. Oh, and it's also a maindeck solution to plague, freeing a couple of SB slots.
I don't think 8 colorless is the maximum the deck can afford. I do believe 15 coloured ones is the minimum a goblin deck can play though. In other words, I'd use a manabase with 15 mountains, 4 Ports, 4 wastes, and then add some number of caverns if I want to run more than 23 lands, reduce the number of ports if I want to run less lands (I'd never do it though).Quote:
Originally Posted by Mantis
Just for the record I'm now playing a version with:
23 lands (no Caverns) + the usual 4ofs, +
2 War Marshal
2 Stingscourger
1 Tinkerer
2 Chieftain
Hi everyone I have followed this thread for a while, but it is my first post. This is what I am working with post rotation. I have always run 61 cards in my deck its something I do as its less than a 2% chance of "devastating me".
Some choices I made are in the lands. Even though its mono Red I didn't want to run 10 colorless lands. And I do like the Gemstone Caverns as a 2 of giving me about a 15% chance of 2 mana on turn 1. And I like waste over port because of my 2 drop situation.
And I am trying out lightning bolt and so far I like it. It does a lot of things. People have been talking about it and so far I like it.
And the sideboard isnt posted not because of super secrect tech, but because it always changes with the meta and we know what to use when. There is usually 4 Relics in it ALWAYS.
Anyway I am looking for some pro tips.
Thanks
// Lands 22
2 Gemstone Caverns
2 Rishadan Port
4 Wasteland
14 Mountain
// Creatures 31
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Piledriver
3 Mogg War Marshal
2 Skingouger
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Gempalm Incenerator
2 Goblin Chieftan
4 Goblin Ringleader
// Spells 8
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Aether Vial
There's no rotation in legacy?Quote:
Originally Posted by christophenuss
So about this and that's not aimed at you in specific but everyone playing Caverns, that's a 15% chance when you're on the draw, so really it's a 15% chance only 50% of the time. Then the other 15% it's absolutely useless and in any other situation that isn't within those 15% (so I guess 85% of the time..) whenever you draw it, it's the worst card in your deck and by far worse then Rishadan Port. I really must be missing something. Do you guys board the Gemstone Caverns out when being on the play? That seems like an absolute minimum when playing the card. Or, alternatively, do you always let your opponent go first so you can optimize this card.. which seems like a really weak play as well.Quote:
. And I do like the Gemstone Caverns as a 2 of giving me about a 15% chance of 2 mana on turn 1. And I like waste over port because of my 2 drop situation.
Also, this "being good" includes taking card disadvantage, this seems so entirely backwards in an aggro deck to me, I do agree that like every aggro deck, it's best to be on the play. But if there's on thing that is holy next to tempo it's making sure you're not being put at a card disadvantage position. I can even imagine that many times in that 15% there isn't anything you would want to get rid off other then the caverns itself.
I'm really just missing the appeal of the card. A small chance of being good (lower then 50%, heck, even lower then 10%) and a big chance of being a worse Rishadan Port. If it was decided that Port wasn't good enough atleast run Mutavaults instead, I'd say.
I ran gemstone as the 24th land, and yes, I boarded it out on the play post SB (unless playing against heavy mana denial decks).Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessaja
Obviously this is not possible if you're running 23 or less lands, and it's also obvious that you should run 4 ports before Caverns. I'm with you with everything you said.
EDIT: on another note, I'm still undecided by the last slots of my SB, that are now filled with cards I'm rarely boarding in. Here it is:
Fixed slots:
4 Relic of Progenitus
4 Pyrokinesis
2 Anarchy
1 Boartusk Liege (2 chieftains MD)
Still wroking on those:
1 Sharpshooter
1 Tinkerer (1 MD)
2 Pyroblasts
The tinkerer comes in against stax, Jitte, and other nasty artifacts.
Sharpshooter jumps in against other tribal decks, but since the Merfolk matchup is almost a bye, and Elves is not that played, it's just another card for the mirror match, where you are already boarding kinesis, and are already slightly advantaged against the B splashes.
The pyroblasts are currently boarded in against Merfolk, Dreadstill, Bant and storm combo, but are not worth against UGr thresh and other blue decks. It's also rarely a game deciding spell. If I'm boarding in something non-goblin I really want it to be great in that matchups, even if I'm boarding it against fewer decks. Is there some hidden gem/bomb for those couple slots that works great against few decks, like Anarchy?
You are aware that Gemstone Caverns taps for colorless, right? There's absolutely no reason you would have to board it out on the play (Although I -have- done this just to stick more SB cards in on occasion.) You just leave it in and use it for mana. Dur.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessaja
And no, you certainly don't ever ever ever elect to go second with Goblins. That would be complete madness.
I think you're comparing Gemstone Caverns to the wrong cards. It doesn't serve Port's role and it certainly isn't comparable to Mutavault. It fills a role that was created when Mogg Fanatic left the deck, which is that the deck got crushed in the tempo department when it didn't go first. Functionally, it plays more like a Chrome Mox than anything, only one that doesn't die to artifact hate, sweepers, can't be stifled, can remove nonred cards, and can provide some use if you don't want to pitch anything. The downside is that Chrome Mox works if you want the acceleration on the play and Gemstone Caverns doesn't. Basically, it's meant to serve the role Chrome Mox tried to and was never all that good at.
@Greenone: I am not sure what your stance is (some people feel that the combo matchup is so bad that there is no reason to side against it), but I would suggest adding some CotV. I just really hate having to sit there and say "Wow, I can't do diddly" when I face combo, and chalice is the best card that goblins can get to side in against it.
I am not a big fan of sharpshooter without fanatics. Yea he is good in the goblins matchup, but with Goblin chieftain seeing play in the maindeck, the one point of damage is often not enough without fanatic...and fanatic stinks.
Tinkerer is also nice, but you are running him in the main as well. I like Anarchy, but how often will it be useful? Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the only white permanent that shuts goblins down humility? Moat and Ghostly prison can be gotten around by SGC (to a certain extent). Other than that what is there to kill? Plus those cards only seem to show up in white stax, quinn and landstill. It might still be worth it, but I think that could definitely be a flex slot.
Once I finish building the deck (which is currently modeled after yours btw-mostly because I am having a really hard time figuring out what I want in the last few slots) my standard sideboard will probably look like this:
4x Chalice of the Void
4x Relic of Progenitus
1x Boartusk Liege
2x Pyroblast
4x Pyrokinesis
Chances are that 2 of the pyrokinesis and 2 blasts will swap at times for either more blasts or anarchies if I can scope out the field before hand.
I hope that at least gives you something to think about :smile:
@GreenOne; I think we're in agreement, I wasn't really commenting on your list. Though I still find it questionable over Mutavault. Reasoning below; unless it's boarded out every time on the play (which can't happen, only 2/3rds of the time you can board it out on the play), the card is strictly inferior in too many occasions. You need to be lucky for it to work and even when you are lucky I seriously doubt it's effectiveness compared to other lands or even Mountains.
@Taco; So, in that case 50% of the time, it will be a card that is strictly worse then Mutavault and Rishadan Port, assuming that you're on the draw 50% of the time (which should be the case without a rigged dice). Now add to that that only 15% of the time (not my statistic, but I guess it's correct) of that other 50%, so 7.5% also known as, 15 out of 200 games. Now lets say, you can draw this from a mulligan too (which is entirely likely) so lets assume that it's 25 out of 200 games that you will be able to use this card from your starting hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tacosnape
Then from those 25 games, I'm very certain there will be hands where you do not want to throw anything away, for instance, you might have mulliganed into it, you might have a great hand and don't want to throw anything in your hand away, there are many hands where I can imagine this to be the case. So lets say it 20 games out of 200 games where you'll be able to use this effectively.
Now take in account that those other 180 games, whenever you would draw this card Mutavault and Rishadan Port are strictly better, do not lose their effectiveness when being on the play and don't clog up in your hand in the rare 1 game where you draw 2 of them (182 games instead of 180!).
In 18 games out of 200 you want to draw this, in 182 games you do not want to draw this over Mutavault or Rishadan Port, seriously, what am I missing. If you do not board this out (hurting your manabase) these are the numbers we're talking about.
And add to that, whenever you do this, you put yourself up for card disadvantage. A wasteland on a Cavern is a 2 for 1 by definition. But even when the land isn't destroyed you're under the assumption of getting a hand with a useless card in it while Goblins is made for consistency and I honestly wouldn't know a hand where I would want to get rid of cards unless you just got a really bad hand in general and should mull in the first place.
How do you justify running a card that is strictly worse compared to similar cards more then 90% of time? How do you justify running a card that isn't even strictly better in the other 10% of the time? I don't mean to attack anyone I just seriously do not understand it.
Quick question: What's the purpose of boartusk liege in the sideboard? Is it used to stop pyroclasm/engineered plague?
It's the only way for mono red goblins to deal with double plague.
Yeah, I'm one of those. I'm not liking chalices any more than blasts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Damnosus
I guess plague doesn't shut down Goblins too, but having a solution to it doesn't really hurt. You can work around most of problematic white permanents, but this requires a lot of time to do it, and so the opponent has quite often the time to find that Geddon, Humility, Pulse of the Fields or whatever messes with your plans.Quote:
Originally Posted by Damnosus
There are a lot of annoying things that Anarchy takes care of, including Elspeth, Ayani Vengeant, Magus of the Tabernacle, Oblivion Ring, Solitary Confinament, Moat, Humility, Runed Halo, Soldier/Angel tokens) and everything in death and taxes. For a 2 of in the SB, completely raping my control opponent when resolves is all I'm asking for :wink:
I tested mutavault cause it seemed a great idea, and of the times I drew it, I animated it less than 10% matches. Oh well, this probably happens when you're playing a deck with more than 30 creatures. :tongue: However, I'm sure that different cards can be run in that slot, and we got plenty of choice, depending on what you're looking for (obviously if you're already running 4 ports).Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessaja
Here's some of the cards you could run in monored (you're better off playing more basics if you're splashing) when playing more than 23 lands. That's roughly the order I'd consider them:
Gemstone Caverns: everything is probably said and done.
Mountain: adds R to your mana pool while being basic. Obviously broken.
Mutavault: Cool against other tribal decks and maybe against standstill if you're lucky. I don't like them though.
Dust Bowl: Additional LD, if your meta features a huge number of duals.
Goblin Burrows: Your goblins can now exchange with nacatls, geese, and sometimes Goyfs!
Ghost Quarter: takes care of manlands, and acts like a strip mine against decks with no basics (like UGr Thresh)
PendelHaven: Off color, but Pumps Tokens, Lackeys, Matrons, War Marshal.
Barbarian Ring: some good pain for a little gain. It's not something I'd look for, but I'd add it before Lightning bolt.
Ancient Tomb: REAL pain for a good gain. Play it only in a version with higher curve.
Blasted Landscape: too mana intensive for what it does, but can be useful if you're running 25 lands or so, to not get flooded on occasion.
Mouth of Ronom: 4 damages are not that impressive in this format, but might work in certain metas.
Quicksands: might 2 for 1 with a goyf or kill a weenie. Meh.
Gargoyle Castle: never tested it, but might work against double plague, Pyroclasm and Moat.
Kher Keep: chump goyf all day long.
Zoetic Cavern: just to confuse the shit out of the opponent.
Keldon Necropolis: 6 lands and a critter to shock the opponent it's nothing to sneeze at.
Shivan Gorge: 4 mana to ping your opponent. Do I have to say more?
Hammerheim: For all those pesky Mountain Goats. No, I'm not serious.
Sorry Post by post rotation I meant with M10 rules, I guess that is a local colloquialism. And as for the Caverns only being good on the draw yes that is true. But We are not the fastest deck in the format anymore. T8 are no longer 7 goblins and X. On the draw this is especially true. We need speed and this gives it to us. I have been thinking about mox but there is already a lot of artifact hate in my meta and I agree with Taco that Caverns is good in here.
Your math doesn't apply to reality.
Here's the first flaw in your statement. Rishadan Port is only better if I use them at any point in the game, and their use makes a difference in the outcome of the game. Otherwise there's absolutely no difference in the two cards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessaja
A Force of Will is also a 2 for 1 by definition. It's also a huge tempo boost.Quote:
And add to that, whenever you do this, you put yourself up for card disadvantage. A wasteland on a Cavern is a 2 for 1 by definition.
If someone leads with Wasteland against Caverns, you've accomplished your mission: You have completely nullified the advantage they have by going first.
In fact, the end result is virtually no different. For example, in a normal game, where you're on the play and your opponent is on the draw, no mulligans, you start with 7 cards in your hand for your first turn. They'll start with 8 for their first turn.
If your opponent leads with Wasteland on Caverns, this is almost no different than you going first. Now you'll have 6 cards for your first hand and your opponent will have 7. This essentially resets everything to a game where both players mulliganed to six.
Now, you can make the argument that the advantage for the player going first is lessened in a 6 card hand battle versus a 7 card hand battle and probably be right, but you also got to get rid of your least useful card and draw a new random one, which probably makes up for this.
Really? You're talking about the deck that, card for card, runs the weakest cards in the entire format, and only thrives due to the ridiculous tempo boosts and card advantage the deck is capable of, and you can't find a card to get rid of?Quote:
But even when the land isn't destroyed you're under the assumption of getting a hand with a useless card in it while Goblins is made for consistency and I honestly wouldn't know a hand where I would want to get rid of cards unless you just got a really bad hand in general and should mull in the first place.
Give me sample hands. Seriously. Give me a ton of them. Tell me my hand and, if I know what I'm playing against, my matchup. I'll find something to pitch in every 7-hand and most 6-hands.
Two reasons:Quote:
How do you justify running a card that is strictly worse compared to similar cards more then 90% of time? How do you justify running a card that isn't even strictly better in the other 10% of the time? I don't mean to attack anyone I just seriously do not understand it.
1. Every mathematical statement in this setup is wrong. It isn't strictly worse in most scenarios: It's strictly even. A colorless producer. And on the draw? I'd argue it's almost invariably better than Port will ever be. Port -sucks- on the draw.
2. The power boost you get from Gemstone Caverns when you get to play it is incredible.
That's not a convincing argument.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tacosnape
Then use Mutavault instead if you please. Point remains, you're playing a Barry's land with no additional benefits the gross majority of the time.Quote:
Here's the first flaw in your statement. Rishadan Port is only better if I use them at any point in the game, and their use makes a difference in the outcome of the game. Otherwise there's absolutely no difference in the two cards.
Don't even try to compare this to Force of Will, it is played in control oriented decks that generate card advantage much more easily. Also, the tempo generated with Force of Will is potentially much greater then an extra land one turn will ever be.Quote:
A Force of Will is also a 2 for 1 by definition. It's also a huge tempo boost.
That's fair, you came to a on the play position with both people taking a mulligan. I'd say this in the Wastelands player favor by far but perhaps (depending on what you threw away with your caverns) it's not too bad. Luckily, this wasn't the main argument I had against it.Quote:
If someone leads with Wasteland against Caverns, you've accomplished your mission: You have completely nullified the advantage they have by going first.
Now, you can make the argument that the advantage for the player going first is lessened in a 6 card hand battle versus a 7 card hand battle and probably be right, but you also got to get rid of your least useful card and draw a new random one, which probably makes up for this.
What about the situations where you had to mulligan and draw into this, play it anyway and suffer more card disadvantage? What about the low chances of its ability being useful at all?
Then take Mutavault instead if you please. I know for a fact that Port doesn't suck on the draw but for the sake of argument, lets change the statement to: It's strictly worse then Mutavault 90% of the time.Quote:
Two reasons:
1. Every mathematical statement in this setup is wrong. It isn't strictly worse in most scenarios: It's strictly even. A colorless producer. And on the draw? I'd argue it's almost invariably better than Port will ever be. Port -sucks- on the draw.
While port -sucks- on the draw (your words), it's still better then Barry's land aka Gemstone Caverns outside your starting hand (80% of the time when on the draw). And Port doesn't suck on the play which is the other 50% of the time. So that would be.. 90% of the time. It's quite simply not true that it does suck on the draw though, not to the point where it's worse then a colorless producing legendary land anyway. At most, it's a situational card but there are plenty of occasions where you can abuse the card when being on the draw.
Going first (even though this isn't true, your creatures still have summoning sickness, your aether vial still doesn't have a counter etc.) at the cost of a card isn't an "incredible power boost", you act as if going first will suddenly make you win the game. Unless you're playing against Zoo or Goblins only this quite simply isn't the case. Many matchups are decided by gaining superior card advantage of your opponent in the control role. Goblins isn't a straight up aggro deck where going first is as significant as you claim.Quote:
2. The power boost you get from Gemstone Caverns when you get to play it is incredible.
Creating tempo boosts is only useful when you can abuse it and that's where Ports and Wastelands come in.
In terms of the Math I think we need to clear some things up. Any math, even the math I gave is not representative of reality, it would assume perfect randomness which we are just not going to achieve. I can run the numbers all day and have a land count that statisticlly should garintee 2 lands in my opening hand, but I am guessing that we have all gotten the screw. What the math can do for us is be a basis for making the non automatic decisions. For me a 15% chance of 2 mana on turn 1 on the draw is worth a turn 2 port activation.
WHAT?! You have to be kidding. A clear board, with both players having 6 cards in hand, and Goblins going first IS IN THE OPPONENT'S FAVOR moreso than it would be if it were 7 and 7 and the opponent going first?Quote:
Originally Posted by Nessaja
You have lost your mind. You clearly have no idea what you're talking about.
I act that way because it's true. Goblins is a deck that -will- replenish its card advantage. The tempo is a huge deal. It wins games.Quote:
Going first at the cost of a card isn't an "incredible power boost", you act as if going first will suddenly make you win the game.
I like how you take a single part of my argument and then invalidate everything I say. It doesn't work that way though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tacosnape
I'd say it's in the opponents favor because when someone wastes something the first turn there's a big chance he had an abundance of lands. When you're throwing in the caverns and discarding something along with it, it was obviously going to be in your favor when doing so, taking that extra advantage away will likely be the right play for an opponent, and thus, his favor or atleast it's in his hands to make the best choice, there's a potential of mana screwing you with it. Starting with a nonbasic land always brings that risk with it. Again though I'm not sure why you're taking minor parts of my argument against this card and then blow it out of proportion to claim its validity. This is not the main point against the card that I have, if you had read my posts you would've known this.
Lets say I concede this point (I don't, but for the sake of argument) how about everything else I stated, I'm going to assume you agree with me on everything else if you're only going to comment on the small things. If that's the case you pretty much convinced me not to play the Caverns in place of either Mutavault or Ports.Quote:
I act that way because it's true. Goblins is a deck that -will- replenish its card advantage. The tempo is a huge deal. It wins games.
Hi everybody!
SO, I had tested this list, and I need suggestions.
Sensation Bidding
// Lands 19
2 Rishadan Port
2 Woodfoot hills
2 Taiga
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Badlands
5 Mountain
// Creatures 33
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Piledriver
3 Mogg War Marshal
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Warchief
1 Gempalm Incenerator
2 Goblin Chieftan
4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Skirk Prospector
1 Sensation Gorger
1 Goblin Tinkerer
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Siege Gang Commander
1 Wort, Boggart Auntie
// Spells 6
2 Patriarch Bidding
4 Aether Vial
SIDE
1 Vexing Shusher
1 Boartusk Liege
3 Krosan Grip
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Pyrokinesis
4 CoV
I played sometimes with this variation:
+1 Rishadan Port
+4 Warren Werding
+3 Gempalm incinerator
- 1 Sensation Gorger
-1 Goblin Tinkerer
-1 Goblin Sharpshooter
-1 Wort
- 4 Prospector
And my opinion of this is version is: with less goblins, the deck loses options and the great (IMO) "kamikazi" strategy: doing agressive blocks and attacks, winning the game or doing a massive bidding, and ........winning the game!
The first decklist counts with a huge list of movements and strategies in Main Deck against many decks.
Please, comments!
Lammina
Ok, after reading this discussion for a while I think I'll join the Gemstone-Caverns madness for a little.
From my point of view the card seems as follows: The only situation where this card is actually to be prefered over basic mountain is when it is in the opening hand, on the draw. The number that seems to be the consensus for running this card seems to be two. So first let me calculate the odds of this event occuring:
Imagine this being your 60 cards deck:
XXXXXXXOOO OOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOO
X=cards drawn from deck
O=cards remaining in deck
What are the odds of at least one of two specific cards of these 60 falling onto the X's?
If you draw one card the probability of it being a Caverns is 2/60 or 1/30 so drawing 7 gives the chance of 7/30 or 0,2333 or 23,3%
For each mulligan you obviously subtract 1/30, however for the sake of argument I'm going to stick with the best case scenario of not taking a mulligan.
Now let's assume you got lucky and drew one Cavern's in your opening draw. Further let's assume that over the rest of the game you take 10 additional draws. This includes Incinerator but not Matron/Ringleader/Fetches. I have to acknowledge that casting those increases the odds of drawing into Caverns since the library then contains less cards, however it would demand additional assumptions on the average number of Matrons/Ringleaders/fetches played per game aswell as requiring some hightech math. Matron/fetch affects the odds differently depending on the turn it's being used on. Ringleader theoretically doesn't affect the odds at all until you shuffle your deck again that would then also entail making an estimation on the average number of Goblins drawn from Ringleader which is again influenced by Matron/fetches, average number of Ringleader-effects+deckrandomizations cast before... it just goes on and on.
10 draws as an average Goblin Game is already a daring assumption so I'm going to let the rest onto your calculations/imagination.
The chances of drawing into the second Caverns with these 10 draws is:
10/53 or 0,1887 or 18,9%
Then there's the chance of already drawing the second Caverns in the opening Hand. The probability of drawing both Caverns is (7/60)x(6/59)=1,2%
Let's review:
Chance of having one or more Caverns in the opener = 23,3%
Chance of having both Caverns in the opener = 1,2% (this odd is a part of the odd above. It's not added onto that number.)
Chance drawing the second Caverns within 10 draws if one is in the opener = 18,9% (actually a little higher due to deck-thinning by Matron/Ringleader/fetches)
I invite anybody to check my math and point out errors. It's been a while since I've done this so I'm not perfectly comfortable with it.
Conclusion:
Now for my personal interpretation of the cards value. While the card does certainly have some utility in the deck, the question has to be: is this utility large enough to justify playing this card over other cards? Is this the best card for the slot?
The numbers above suggest to me that this card is already having trouble defending itself against basic Island (due to legendary and nonbasic).
Remember that even if you do draw it in your opener, your opener can still look like: Caverns, Badlands, Vial, Warchief, Ringleader, Weirdings, Matron. Suppose you don't draw another land within the next two drawsteps then you will not have gained any speed, 2for1'ed yourself and blanked a card in your deck to boot. What I'm trying to say is that the odds I calculated above also don't take into account the fact that sometimes you won't be able to take any advantage from Caverns even when you do draw it into an onthedraw-opener.