[Deck] Merfolk

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Originally Posted by Tacosnape

I think Forbiddian's analysis is pretty dead on.

I've personally gone the Jitte route in sideboard. I can't beat Goblins consistently without them, and I play in a metagame where powerful budget decks run rampant. I don't think the Zoo matchup is overly salvageable without going the white splash + 8 removal + Absolute Law variant, so I choose to let my Blasts and Jittes try to handle it.

As I also face Enchantress, Stax, Belcher, NOgenitus, and Hexmage Depths combo, this is my current list.

12 Island
4 Wasteland
4 Mutavault

4 Aether Vial
4 Standstill
4 Force of Will
4 Daze
4 Echoing Truth

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Merfolk Sovereign

SB:
4 Relic of Progenitus
3 Umezawa's Jitte
2 Blue Elemental Blast
2 Hydroblast
2 Pithing Needle
2 Hibernation

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How's the full set of Echoing Truth been working out so far?

And, in case anyone's curious, here's where I'm at these days:

3 Misty Rainforest
3 Scalding Tarn
1 Flooded Strand
3 Mutavault
4 Wasteland
3 Tundra
3 Island

4 Aether Vial
4 Standstill
4 Force of Will
4 Daze
4 Swords to Plowshares

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Merfolk Sovereign

Sideboard:
4 Path to Exile
3 Burrenton Forge-Tender (testing)
3 Seal of Cleansing
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Tormod's Crypt
2 Engineered Explosives (testing)

...So yeah. I'm kind of goofing around with a couple unconventional sideboard strategies, unfortunately I don't have too much time to test.

If anyone's doing hardcore testing with this deck these days, I'd be really curious how 2 copies of Engineered Explosives works to supplement the 4 Swords/ 4 Path package... I could see it being pretty good against Zoo, Dredge... possibly even some Storm combo or Belcher if you can time it to blow up their mana sources (but this is a long shot.) But this may just be me figuratively smoking crack again, it is sort of an unconventional card for this deck. I figure against Zoo though, it could work decently if you board out your Aether Vials and possibly the Cursecatchers.

Anyone willing to give EE a test drive for me?

Why do you people miss such obvious card as Annul? Works wonders against solid chunk of the field, often even maindeckable. And its in color.

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Originally Posted by Tinefol

Why do you people miss such obvious card as Annul? Works wonders against solid chunk of the field, often even maindeckable. And its in color.

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Most people seem to think Spell Pierce is better than Annul for this deck. I'm mostly inclined to agree, since it's a less narrow card. And it should be a hard counter on most of the turns we really care about. By the time they can cast a bomb non-creature spell (we're usually talking cmc = 3 or higher here) with two extra mana, it might be already too late for us, I think is the general line of thought.

I mean, Annul is never gonna counter that random Lightning Bolt.

@Tacosnape & DukeDemonKnight: Both your lists have 4 x Sovereign and no Wake Thrasher. I would have thought Sovereign made Thrasher better? Maybe a 3/2 split cutting a daze or something? Can you elaborate why you cut him?

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Originally Posted by DukeDemonKn1ght

Most people seem to think Spell Pierce is better than Annul for this deck. I'm mostly inclined to agree, since it's a less narrow card. And it should be a hard counter on most of the turns we really care about. By the time they can cast a bomb non-creature spell (we're usually talking cmc = 3 or higher here) with two extra mana, it might be already too late for us, I think is the general line of thought.

I mean, Annul is never gonna counter that random Lightning Bolt.

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I've used Annul a lot, and love it. That said I've never tried Spell Pierce. Since I feel my SB is so tight, SP might be the go since it can effectively work against a lot more decks. Altho I doubt you'd be siding in Annul (or any card?) just to counter a random Lightning Bolt :tongue:

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Originally Posted by AcidFiend

I would have thought Sovereign made Thrasher better? Maybe a 3/2 split cutting a daze or something? Can you elaborate why you cut him?

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Originally Posted by Nightmare

Every non-Lord beater you play has a net weakening effect on the rest of the creatures you play, when you compare it to playing the Lord instead. Specifically because the Lords make them better. For every guy you play where you could have played a Lord, you have to consider the effect the Lord would have had, but didn't.

Sure, if Wake Thrasher was actually a 6/6, it would be one thing. But he isn't. He's actually a 1/1, on the turns where it matters. Sure, Sovereign is a 2/2, but he actually helps your other guys stay alive on the relevant turns, rather than just attacking big. He also helps them attack bigger, too.

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In a word: synergy. If we can use another: protection. Volcanic Fallout et. al. are hard to deal with.

I guess its a personal choice as results have shown Thrasher lists can be successful. To be honest I want to include to be able to include Sovereign, I just haven't tested it hehe.

Does running Sovereign improve either Cosi's Trickster or Jitte, or it doesn't really affect either? I guess I'm thinking whether a more aggro slanted list could work:

4 Aether Vial
4 Standstill
4 Force of Will
4 Daze
3 Jitte
4 Cosi's Trickster
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Merfolk Sovereign
1 Wake Thrasher
12 Island
4 Wasteland
4 Mutavault

I wonder if you've read the last 10 or so pages of this thread: Jitte's been dismissed as well, as it creates too much of a burden on your manabase. One Wake Thrasher is rather odd: either you want to see something important (4x), you want to see something but not in multiples (2-3x), or you want to tutor for something (1-2x) or you don't want to run something (0x). You don't have a tutor. =)

I'm interested in Cosi myself. Please test it and let us know what you find. Existing impressions have been pessimistic, but maybe you'll find something else. If they crack two Fetches and shuffle with Ponder in the first few turns then it's certainly worth paying U. If they're the sort of deck that does that, they may send their removal towards it instead of saving it for Lords. That's all well and good, but it might also just be a 1/1 for U all game.

Here is the breakdown of 1st place finishers of tournaments over 30 people since June (sourced from DeckCheck):

MD Jitte: 4/10
No MD Jitte: 6/10
No Jitte MD or SB: 1/10

Not included above, Team China also came 1st @ Worlds running MD Jitte. 90% of winning Merfolk decks run copies of a card you have dismissed. If you don't want to run Jitte that's fine, but you'll excuse me if I don't subscribe to every decision in the last 10 pages of this thread.

You're right in one Thrasher is random, I'd probably change the above list to -1 Thrasher, -1 Sovereign, -1 Jitte, +3 Spell Snare.

Damn y'all... I notice a big lack of love amongst us Merfolk pilots these days.

I think a lot of the crankiness comes from the fact that about 90% of the cards in this deck are set in stone (or perhaps in some cases, perceived as being so). But we have to remember that there is still room for refinement as far as card choices and game strategies.

Another aspect is that the increasingly aggro metagame is bad for our chances. But I don't think this deck's development has quite jumped the shark yet. We have to acknowledge the prevalence of other aggro decks that play more aggressively than we do (ie Zoo). And we have to somehow adapt.

Above all, I think we should be civil with each other and let the pissing contests dissolve. (And I've been guilty of taking part in these squabbles just as much as the next guy, probably.)

I think there's proof that this deck can still post results. So let's stay positive and try to work together. God, I feel like a fucking lame motivational speaker right now. But come on folks, seriously...

...Or, instead of doing anything productive, we could have another week-long flame war about Jitte. Again. Y'all have fun, I'll check back later.

(I think Jitte is probably a meta call. Something more interesting to talk about, I think, would be some of the unconventional things about the list that won Worlds: 2 Spell Snare/ 2 Stifle split, Sovereigns in the sideboard, making Kira and Jitte work in the same 75. These might be more productive things to discuss.)

I didn't mean to start a(nother) shtstorm, if people don't like Jitte that's fine, I tend to agree with Forbiddian that the data makes it look fine. At worst its a 2 colouress "Destroy target Jitte" because if your opponent gets theirs online, you're pretty much screwed. Moving on...

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Originally Posted by DukeDemonKn1ght

Something more interesting to talk about, I think, would be some of the unconventional things about the list that won Worlds: 2 Spell Snare/ 2 Stifle split, Sovereigns in the sideboard, making Kira and Jitte work in the same 75. These might be more productive things to discuss.)

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Was really curious about the 2 SS / 2 Stifle. What are the chances you need a Stifle and happen to have one.. same for Spell Snare. I'd prefer just to have 3 of either. Decent chance of seeing one and don't have to mise. That said, I don't know if they ever proved to be crucial for him. It's certainly possible to run something as a 2-of and not see it all day. My hunch is you need a much bigger sample size to test something like that than just your rounds in a single tournament.

When deckbuilding I hate disynergy. My gut reaction to Kira + Jitte was just a flat out no. Still for arguments sake, would having two of each say post-board against Zoo be that bad? Let's check the scenarios:

Over the course of the game:
-You only see one (Kira or Jitte) -> Great. Probably helps you.
-You see two Kira -> Potentially fine, they may have two-for-one'd your first Kira, then you plonk another. Two in your opening hand maybe not so good, but chances are low.
-You see two Jitte -> Again, potentially fine as they also run Jitte. The first set (theirs and yours) may have cancelled each other, or your first got Pridemage'd, so your second is handy.
-You see one Kira and one Jitte -> Not ideal, particularly if you're short on creatures. But with their removal + their Jitte, theres probably ample time to have just one or the other out. You might play Jitte first and when they go to remove a Lord, you warp in Kira to protect it, figuring its more important than the active Jitte.

Which two of these three would be best against Zoo: Jitte, Hydroblast, Kira. I'm guessing you'd take Hydro & Jitte|Kira anyways.

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Originally Posted by Forbiddian

Instead, we should all be bestest friends and talk about how there was that one time when I cast Vial and then cast Standstill, and then I won the game because Merfolk is great! We all love Merfolk! YAY, BESTEST FRIEND TIME, I CAN HAVE HUGS NAO???

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I lol'd.

Just wanted to share my list, this is based on a list I got from Phoenix_Ignition September 1st (thanks mate). I have tested different builds and feel most comfortable with this one (at least vs the decks I tested against)

12 Islands
4 Wastelands
3 Mutavault

4 Cursecatcher
4 Lords of Atlantis
4 Sivergill Adept
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Merfolk Sovereign
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
1 Sygg, River Cutthroat

4 Aether Vial
4 Force of Will
4 Standstill
3 Stifle
3 Daze

I can't deceide what I prefer most of Kira and Jitte. But it is no doubts the most sided cards :)

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Originally Posted by Daredevil

Just wanted to share my list, this is based on a list I got from Phoenix_Ignition September 1st (thanks mate). I have tested different builds and feel most comfortable with this one (at least vs the decks I tested against)

12 Islands
4 Wastelands
3 Mutavault

4 Cursecatcher
4 Lords of Atlantis
4 Sivergill Adept
4 Merrow Reejerey
4 Merfolk Sovereign
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner
1 Sygg, River Cutthroat

4 Aether Vial
4 Force of Will
4 Standstill
3 Stifle
3 Daze

I can't deceide what I prefer most of Kira and Jitte. But it is no doubts the most sided cards :)

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My list actually looks like this except I have Wake Thrasher on Kira's spot and a 4th Daze on Sygg's spot.

I could definitely use Kira though, especially that Goblins and Zoo running rampant in my meta.

What are good sideboard cards against Goblins and Zoo for a mono-blue merfolk?

I could splash W but would the Lorwyn Merfolk land good enough as my dual (I dont really own duals or fetches :( )

I can see where this is going, so lemme enter by saying - Forbiddian, try to keep it civil this time, please. I don't want to get bogged down defending myself against your sideways insults.

Notice that Forbiddian is not claiming that he tested anything (and came to different results). He is just saying that he does not believe those of us who have.

Anyway. I saw that you guys are not separating Merfolk decks by the presence or absence of white splash. Fact is, I used Jitte in my monoblue sb for quite some time before concluding that it was not doing its job. If you are playing monoblue in an aggro-heavy meta, what other options do you really have? (For that answer, feel free to read the majority of this thread for the discussion.) It's not that Jitte is especially good at single-handedly rescuing the aggro matchup. Blue just has nothing to compete with it. There is a reason blue aggro is hard to find, after all. The smaller guys and absence of real removal mean that Jitte is a band-aid when you need an ambulance. Jitte or no, you are not going to have long-term success against aggro.

...unless you splash.

The white splash has access to actual removal. Honestly, I have not tested Jittes alongside STPs and Exiles, and I can't see devoting 11 or 12 sb slots here. But in any case, if you are serious constructing a Merfolk deck to beat Zoo and Goyf-Sligh, you have to splash.

Even still, in Tacosnape's environment, with various combo and control decks monoblue is the way to go. That is the sort of environment this deck is traditionally for. Let him use Jitte if he wants. He is not looking for it to stand up to Bolts, Exiles, and a clock, which is where it sux.

Fuck. All my post-content got deleted. So here it is again:


Statistical analysis showed that Merfolk decks with Jitte performed identically to non-Jitte.

Yet there are people who continue to perpetuate the uhm "statement" that Jitte is worse. Why?

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Originally Posted by Forbiddian

Fuck. All my post-content got deleted. So here it is again:


Statistical analysis showed that Merfolk decks with Jitte performed identically to non-Jitte.

Yet there are people who continue to perpetuate the uhm "statement" that Jitte is worse. Why?

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Because first hand playtesting results proved it to be ineffective and an overall tempo loss. The card is good but it itself was not helpful against any non-tribal deck. It isn't a terrible sideboard card but I still have not used it based on my own results.

Worse than.....?

Let's make sure we are all talking about the same thing here.

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Originally Posted by Finn

Worse than.....?

Let's make sure we are all talking about the same thing here.

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I dunno, you're the people pretending that it's worse than something. You tell me what you think Jitte is worse than. I'm really curious how you got testing results so discrepant with tournament results.

Oh, I wasn't specific enough: I'm talking about Jitte in the maindeck, I didn't run tests for Jitte sideboarded, yet.

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Originally Posted by Forbiddian

I dunno, you're the people pretending that it's worse than something. You tell me what you think Jitte is worse than. I'm really curious how you got testing results so discrepant with tournament results.

Oh, I wasn't specific enough: I'm talking about Jitte in the maindeck, I didn't run tests for Jitte sideboarded, yet.

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The problem isn't that Jitte is bad. I think the major mistake people have is thinking that good cards belong in every deck, regardless of synergy. Merfolk is a deck that lives and dies by synergy. It's a fast tempo deck that capitalizes on keeping the opponent off of his game plan while playing clocks. The clocks all linearly grow in power, and a weak 1/1 pseudo-daze creature can turn into a powerful 3/3 as the game progresses. That 1/1 can easily deal 9 damage just by himself.

The overarching problem with Jitte is that it requires you to use your mana in a fair way. Normally we can just Vial creatures in, or even untap our lands to keep on Stifling/wastelanding/what have you with the Reejery. Against most decks, the original strategy of finishing quickly works perfectly. Islandwalking helps with quite a few decks, giving us the benefit of not having to worry about bigger and better less synergistic creatures (looking at you tarmogoyf) taking ours out. But keeping the merfolk count up allows Reejery to be a giant pain for the opponent, forcing them into race wars for fear of having their lonely lhurgoyf lured from blocking.

The problem with this strategy is obviously in decks that have multiple creatures (negating Reejery to a point), and no islands (making our unfair unblockables utterly upset). Though these used to be few in the metagame, Zoo is regaining much momentum. Goblins and Elves get a shout out here as well, but they are less played and we can for the sake of argument right now, not include cards in the maindeck to fight them.

Now zoo. It's a problem matchup, for sure, but what's the best answer? Many people think Jitte helps a lot here, but I disagree. First, Qasali Pridemage is a 4-of. The argument can be made that you trade 1 for 1 here, but the problem is you invest 4 mana while the opponent, who has a quicker off the line start, spends less mana, furthering their tempo advantage. Say they don't have a Pridemage? Okay, well right now *checks zoo thread* most decks run 14-16 spot removal. That's roughly as many 'folk as we run. Now, they most likely can't burn every merfolk we have, but removing every merfolk we equip the Jitte to (as soon as it swings) is no hard feat. In fact, many Zoo decks run Jitte themselves, which is fine I guess, an even 1 for 1 2 mana spent each.

The argument has been made that burning the worst merfolk on your team (the one you should equip it to) is bad because they don't burn your lords... Well this is partially true, but unless you have at least 2 lords out, you can't even trade with their Nacatl 1 drops. This means you have to be significantly ahead of zoo for the Jitte to make a difference, unless they don't hit the 1/3 of their deck that can stop the Jitte from hurting them (tough with 2 sylvan libraries).

So on to tribal. I agree with you here, Jitte is good. Supposing they don't run spot removal (at most 3 in goblins, none in elves) then Jitte is awesome. Once more, tribal decks have a record of stomping on merfolk, so it could be argued that it's a good maindeck inclusion. Well, I'm inclined to disagree, because against almost every other matchup you can fill this slot with a better card. Sideboard it is not horrible, I understand why people put it here, but I will stand behind saying you don't need it.

tl;dr, Jitte isn't synergistic in a deck that makes or breaks itself on synergy. Just because there are many small creatures in a deck doesn't mean Jitte should find a home there. It is good against tribal, but against everything else I don't think it deserves a spot.

Here is all the data for Merfolk performance from Deckcheck, analyzed the best that I could. I don't fudge data. You'll probably look through it and be surprised, as I was.

I also won't misrepresent data: Random distribution accounts for at least 60% of the variance, so take everything with a grain of salt.

Data, Feel free to skip down to conclusions
Just in case you're curious, I used the "Performance after Top 8" metric that I've been touting for years.

It only looks at people in the top 8, and then it checks their performance:

1st place = 3-0
2nd place = 2-1
3rd and 4th place = 1-1
5th-8th place = 0-1

Totals up the wins and losses and spits out a result.
(Name of Card in Maindeck, win percentage (no idea why I didn't do this before, that's much easier),, # games, Chi-square with respect to all Merfolk games)

For your information, Chi-square (pronounced "Kai") is a one measure expressing how likely you would be to notice a difference, if you played "# games" number of games. You'd be unlikely to notice a performance difference for cards with Chi-square < 0.1, but very likely to notice a difference for cards with Chi-square > 0.4 or so. Chi-squares greater than 1 are almost certain.

Recent Matches (>9/6), 56.0, 55, 0.039
Heydey (prior to March 09), 63.1, 57, 0.22

Echoing Truth, 61.8, 76, 0.154
Stifle*, 58.5, 222, Negligible
Relic, 48.8, 41, 0.645
Tundra, 61.1, 36, 0.045
Tropical Island*, 55.2, 58, 0.103
Brainstorm, 56.0, 50, 0.05
Jitte, 56.3, 126, 0.09
Sovereign, 57.3, 75, 0.015
Kira, 66.7, 39, 0.456
Wakethrasher, 60.3, 247, 0.157
Lord of Atlantis (baseline for every Merfolk deck), 58.4, 375, 0.276
Mutavault, 59.2, 316, 0.032
No Mutavault, 54.2, 59, 0.175
Dreadnought*, 69.0, 42, 0.81

*Stifle Questions
Dreadnought + Stifle (Yes, I'm fucking serious, it's different than Dreadnought. There was some jackass who lost first round (obviously) playing Dreadnought without Stifle just to screw up my results), 70.7, 41, 1.067
Stifle WITHOUT Dreadnought, 55.8, 181, 0.01

Apparently the reason why Stifle is doing better than average is because it couples with Dreadnought. Dreaded Fish wins 71% of the time. Without Dreadnought, it's not doing well.

Sideboarded Cards
Jitte: 60.9, 187, 0.21
Stifle: 0.5, 48, 0.580
Divert: 77.5!!!, 40, 2.49!!!
Back to Basics: 60.7, 117, 0.10
Relic: 60.3, 247, 0.15
Chill: 48.7, 41, 0.650
BEB: 57.2, 206, 0.044
Hydroblast: 59.4, 207, 0.036
Hydroblast + BEB: 58.4, 60, negligible
Krosan Grip: 61.0, 41, 0.046
Threads of Disloyalty: 68.0, 75, 1.18
Crypt: 55.0, 127, 0.23
Mind Harness: 62.0, 95, 0.22
Annul: 54.5, 22, 0.055

*Tropical Island Questions
Krosan Grip Sideboarded: 61.0, 41, 0.046
Tropical Island without Kgrip Sideboarded: 41.1, 17, 0.69

Apparently the reason why the Green splash is doing poorly is because some people don't board Kgrip, and those people lose.


Tell me if you can think of anything else you'd like me to look at.




Analyzed Data
The best decks (the ones winning over 60% against the field, in top 8 play) were:
Any merfolk deck before March 09 and after August 2008: 62% win ratio (the highest win ratio was actually seen around the new year, with a win ratio as high as 66%! Around this time, Merfolk was the best deck in the format, having finished its evolution, more or less, and the metagame was completely unprepared for it).

See bolded categories for interesting results.

The best cards were:

Divert Sideboard: 77.5% win ratio, WHAT THE FUCK!? n=40
Dreadnought Maindeck (with Stifle): 70.7% win ratio. n=41
Threads of Disloyalty SB: 68% win ratio. n=75
Kira Maindeck: 66.7% win ratio, n=39
Mind Harness Sideboard: 62.1% win ratio, n=95
Echoing Truth Maindeck: 61.8% win ratio, n=76
Tundra Maindeck: 61.1%, n=36
Jitte SB: 61.0%, n=187
Krosan Grip SB: 61.0%, n=41

The worst cards were:
Relic Maindeck: 48.7%, n=41 (incidentally, if you move it to the sideboard, your win ratio goes up to 60.3%)
Chill Sideboard, 48.7%, n=41 (yup, same numbers, nope: different people)
Stifle Sideboard: 50.0%, n=48
Not Running Mutavault: 54.2%, n=59


Suckiness of the TestsThe only category where I found clear statistical significance was Kira vs. Relic. Kira is better with 95% certainty, and they are different with 90% certainty. The sample size isn't big enough to draw very many statistically significant conclusions.

There are numerous sources of bias. I'll just mention a few:

More expensive cards will appear better than they actually are. Pilots who have the means to get more expensive cards generally care more about Legacy and play better. A deck running Tabernacle of Pendrel Vale will rarely be piloted by a six year old who mainly plays Type 2, compared to a deck running Condemn maindeck.

This might account for some of Tundra's great performance, and it makes Tropical Island look like total shit.

Cards that are good against good matchups will appear better than cards that are good against bad matchups. Pilots individually metagame their decks, so Merfolk-friendly metagames that allow you to concentrate on your good matchups are going to be more friendly.

There are certain cards that indicate the presence of other cards. Stifle indicates 4 Wasteland. Jitte and Kira are incompatible. These changes can affect the testing results.

"Older" cards perform better than newer cards. Merfolk used to be better, so cards that saw more play during the heydey will appear stronger. Every merfolk deck won 58% of the time, but recently it's winning only 56% of the time. Any card played solely before March 09 and not at all after would win 62% of the time and appear to be much better than a card played solely after September 09. For instance, just 23% of Jitte's plays were before March 2009, compared to 34% globally.


Conclusions
Kira is better than Jitte, and Jitte is better than neither. Kira is very good, in general. I was totally wrong about her.

Relic is horrible. I thought it wasn't too horrible, but it's horrible. Update: It's still horrible. Only matched by trying Chill in the sideboard.

The Green splash is not worth it. The white splash is very much worth it. Update: Apparently if you run Kgrip in the board, then the green splash is about as good as the white splash. I haven't done analagous testing on the white splash, yet. I'm sure there are people, say, running Tundra but no Swords.

Dreadnought is probably worth taking another look at. It's monstrous.

Not running Divert seems retarded.