All B/R update speculation.

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Originally Posted by Deadpool09

HMMM. wheres the ban tnn crowd? since its been a few months and a handful of tourney results, i figured legacy will bow down to the all mighty 3/1.
were still playing legacy right? format is still healthy as ever. yay!

oh. yeah, quote me on that.

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Have you seen the meta (thecouncil) for January 2014 so far? Patriot and Deathblade are #1 and #2, and Patriot is so far ahead it's not even funny. Blade Control/Stoneblade and UR Burn sit at #6 and #7 respectively. That's 4 TNN decks in the top 10 with a TNN #1 overall deck being way, way ahead. 3 combos deck (Elves, Sneak & Show and Reanimator) don't care about what happens in the meta. So that leaves D&T, BUG Delver and RUG Delver as the three decks that don't revolve around TNN in the top 10 (and many BUG lists do run TNN maindeck while RUG lists run TNN in the sideboard as a concession to how dumb and overpowered TNN is). Yep, healthy!

1.) Patriot - TNN deck through and through

2.) DeathBlade - TNN deck through and through

3.) Reanimator - doesn't care about anything

4.) Death and Taxes - a non-blue, non-TNN deck. YES.

5.) Sneak Attack - doesn't care about anything

6.) Blade Control - a TNN deck through and through

7.) UR Burn - morphing into a dedicated grindier TNN deck, although there are still some lists on the all-in Goblin Guide plan

8.) Threshold UGr - not a TNN deck, but does run TNN sideboard. YES..ish?

9.) Elves - doesn't care about anything

10.) Team America - not a TNN deck, but does run TNN maindeck and/or sideboard. YES...ish?

All of the top 7 decks for December '13 (granted, just a month, a month interrupted by holidays, and just one site's view of the "meta") have blue. The Spirit, and hopefully more, can't come soon enough.

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Originally Posted by miguelmatix

yeah.... but none of those cards - SFM or TNN is banworth i think...
And SCG (AKA "MTG Mafia") tourneys shouldn't be the only source to gather data. lol

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Please show me the passage, where I advocated for a ban. I just did take that tourney to Painter a picture of the current metagame.

Arsenal's effort to present the data should kill any doubts.

I simply don't call several flavors of SFM + TNN or variations of S&T + Griselbrand a healthy metagame

Looking at December 2013 and January 2014, I'm surprised to see Jund so low. I thought that Jund was going to prey on the various TNN-based decks that were sure to crop up (and they have, in full force). Jund has natural maindeck answers to TNN (Liilana) and has the ability to run lots of SB hate for it (REB/Pyroblast, Golgari Charm, etc). Perhaps people realized that between the two midrangy-grindy decks (Blade-TNN vs. Jund), the deck with a near invincible win condition + access to Brainstorm wins...

BTW, December 2013 shows DeathBlade sitting at 7th, it actually should be 4th. If you look at #31, that also is "Deathblade", but it's labeled with a lower case "b" instead of an upper case "B". If you add DeathBlade's 162 + Deathblade's 19 together, you get 181, which would be good for 4th place.

Relax guys... no need to take several aspirins :laugh:

Everything I predicted would happen in the now-closed "Should TNN go away" thread has happened if you look at December 2013 and January 2014's data. TNN has taken over the meta and pushed many non-blue, non-TNN strategies out.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

Have you seen the meta (thecouncil) for January 2014 so far? Patriot and Deathblade are #1 and #2, and Patriot is so far ahead it's not even funny.

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The sample size for January 2013 is way too low, so don't give the ranking or "what is ahead" not too much credit. At this point miracle control is not even list and it surely still is a tierdeck like in the months before.

However Miracles is one deck that can handle nemesis, so your point is valid that you either have nemesis decks and decks that "don't care" about nemesis. This was foreseen by many people in the community but I don't think we are yet at a stage where it is as drastic as the "short term" / "variance" data suggest. There are still people who believe in shardless bug or that Team America without Nemesis is a thing. Jund is also a deck but I guess most good players don't like to play without brainstorm unless you have sick tribes or tricky interactions.

For me it's a fact that format diversity was hurt and will be hurt more as the meta develops. TNN and SFM is just stupid.

WHile I am not necessarily advocating for a ban, Stoneforge is honestly better than TNN. TNN as a 3/1 pro me guy is like not amazing for me, but not GG either. Once Jitte's and Sword's and shit start getting equipped, that is when he gets bonkers.

I'm confused as to why Storm combo is so low for December 2013 and January 2014. In the 5-6 months pre-TNN, AnT consistently sat somewhere in the #5-9 spot. December 2013? #15. January 2014? #12. Thoughts? I thought that Storm players were going to LOVE seeing players tap 3 mana mainphase for their TNNs...

The problem with Jund is thus: You're not the greatest against Combo. We're having this discussion in the Jund thread, and the answer is that beyond discard and some blasts, you're pretty much a sitting duck. Sure, grabbing useful cards can sometimes be great, as is lowering card density, but hatebears and counters are really where you have a better chance against Combo, and Jund just can't do that.

Patriot shits all over Combo, in my opinion. Rest in Peace, Force, Daze, Pierce, Flusterstorm, Meddling Mage, Blast, AND you have a block in SFM into anything. I've played the matchup more than a few times and it's true, the Combo player CAN win, but you're not looking forward to the matchup for sure.

Next banning prediction: Liliana of the Veil, Golgari Charm, and Toxic Deluge for taking away any possible fun a TNN could have. /troll.


-Matt

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

I'm confused as to why Storm combo is so low for December 2013 and January 2014. In the 5-6 months pre-TNN, AnT consistently sat somewhere in the #5-9 spot. December 2013? #15. January 2014? #12. Thoughts? I thought that Storm players were going to LOVE seeing players tap 3 mana mainphase for their TNNs...

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Allow me to share my perspective: the fact that SFM + TNN are so fucking resistant there is no need to protect them with certain SB slots. On top of that, running Spell Snare not only Stops opposing SFM's but also protects your own TNN from Golgari Charm and Zealous Persecution. Snare is still motherfucking underplayed!

In essence, that development caused that the SFM/TNN decks can dedicate many more slots to problematic matchups like storm what often shows in a full set of hatebears + Flusterstorm + REB's + RIP (against ANT). You can draw your own conclusion if that's even worse for storm than the previous era of Daze + Stifle

Want to talk about both topics on the podcast

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Originally Posted by sdematt

The problem with Jund is thus: You're not the greatest against Combo. We're having this discussion in the Jund thread, and the answer is that beyond discard and some blasts, you're pretty much a sitting duck. Sure, grabbing useful cards can sometimes be great, as is lowering card density, but hatebears and counters are really where you have a better chance against Combo, and Jund just can't do that.

Patriot shits all over Combo, in my opinion. Rest in Peace, Force, Daze, Pierce, Flusterstorm, Meddling Mage, Blast, AND you have a block in SFM into anything. I've played the matchup more than a few times and it's true, the Combo player CAN win, but you're not looking forward to the matchup for sure.

Next banning prediction: Liliana of the Veil, Golgari Charm, and Toxic Deluge for taking away any possible fun a TNN could have. /troll.


-Matt

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I agree about the patriot part. TNN is played a lot in tempo style decks, which are generally supposed to have good match ups vs Combo. Between Team America, RUG, and Patriot, there is a lot of tempos going around. Combine that with Esperblade style decks which get to combine Force, Thoughtseize, and whatever other hate that they want, it seems rough to be a combo player right now.

And like Lemnear just said, Patriot getting to run really good hatebears out of the board like Meddling mage and Canonist (which are arguably more difficult to profitably deal with than counter magic) just kills combo even more.

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Originally Posted by sdematt

The problem with Jund is thus: You're not the greatest against Combo. We're having this discussion in the Jund thread, and the answer is that beyond discard and some blasts, you're pretty much a sitting duck. Sure, grabbing useful cards can sometimes be great, as is lowering card density, but hatebears and counters are really where you have a better chance against Combo, and Jund just can't do that.

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But with the pronounced downswing of Storm combo, I thought Jund would be the beneficiary of that as Jund is still able to interact with Sneak & Show + Reanimator far better than they are with Storm-based combo. That clearly has not been the case as Jund has dropped many spots in the meta, even with Storm being at a 6-8 month low.

BTW, I just bought my Groves/Punishing Fire to make it "good" Jund recently, only to find it isn't that good anymore. Meh.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

I'm confused as to why Storm combo is so low for December 2013 and January 2014. In the 5-6 months pre-TNN, AnT consistently sat somewhere in the #5-9 spot. December 2013? #15. January 2014? #12. Thoughts? I thought that Storm players were going to LOVE seeing players tap 3 mana mainphase for their TNNs...

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Well, thing is, it freed up a bunch of room from UWR and Esperblade sideboards. Space that was promptly taken by a veritable army of Meddling Mages and extra Pyroblasts and the like...

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Allow me to share my perspective: the fact that SFM + TNN are so fucking resistant there is no need to protect them with certain SB slots. On top of that, running Spell Snare not only Stops opposing SFM's but also protects your own TNN from Golgari Charm and Zealous Persecution. Snare is still motherfucking underplayed!

In essence, that development caused that the SFM/TNN decks can dedicate many more slots to problematic matchups like storm what often shows in a full set of hatebears + Flusterstorm + REB's + RIP (against ANT). You can draw your own conclusion if that's even worse for storm than the previous era of Daze + Stifle

Want to talk about both topics on the podcast

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This mirrors my experience. The new blade decks I have played against often bring in a full set of Meddling Mage AND Flusterstorm against me, not even including broader hate like REB or yard hate. Storm (and other engine decks like High Tide) can only fight off so many different types of disruption before they start to crumble under the pressure. Countermagic + hatebears + yard hate is generally way too much, especially considering some TNN decks run discard also. The lack of pure aggro in the format and the strength of TNN prevents TNN decks from having to worry much about that matchup. Less intricate/more resilient combo decks (Show and Tell.dec) or those with more versatile game plans (Elves!) are much better equipped to navigate a meta with lots of different angles of attack.

Just a little thought experiment... Interested in what people think.

I was having a discussion with some other legacy players and somehow ridiculous unbans came up...

Which would be more damaging to legacy is it were unbanned?

Balance

or

Vampiric Tutor

I guess Balance. Only a little bit, but still.
Balance is three banned cards spliced unto another, while Vampiric would allow some ridiculous ridiculousness. I think that both are op, but Balance is not even funny.

Why are people talking about TNN when Stoneforge is the obvious offender?

Stoneforge mystic is good but it requires multiple cards and turns to reach its full potential. It is susceptible to both discard and removal, and then it requires a carrier for the equipment. I mean yeah, sfm can carry it, but mostly I prefer something else to.

Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk

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Originally Posted by [SLAYER]chaos

Why are people talking about TNN when Stoneforge is the obvious offender?

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SFM didn't break anything before - it's a powerful card, but fair in the end.

What breaks it is a completely unstoppable equipment carrier in form of TNN.

Get rid of TNN and the problem is solved.

Honestly, destroy the equipment and TNN loses a lot of power.

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Originally Posted by [SLAYER]chaos

Why are people talking about TNN when Stoneforge is the obvious offender?

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What is this? Modern? Stoneforge is a very powerful card; it might even be more powerful than TNN, depending on how you'd like to characterize it. That doesn't mean it needs to get banned. You can still interact with a resolved SFM on multiple levels, including removal and/or Stifle. You can still interact with the equipment it finds using hand disruption and artifact destruction. This isn't Modern, we don't have to ban cards for being good.

Not that I'm advocating a banning of any sort, but True-Name Nemesis is the obvious offender... and not for being the most powerful card, but for easily being one of the least interactive cards ever printed. Honestly, it would fix a lot about TNN if they simply errata'd its ability to be an "enters the battlefield" trigger. Just pause for a moment and think about how much more balanced that would make it.

Yeah I'm not sure why R&D wanted his ability to be static vs. triggered. It seems counter intuitive to create a card the way they did. I'm getting ready to upgrade my TNN playset to Japanese. I'm guessing that eventually it will be errata'ed to a triggered ability, if things keep going this way.

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Originally Posted by Secretly.A.Bee

Yeah I'm not sure why R&D wanted his ability to be static vs. triggered. It seems counter intuitive to create a card the way they did.

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I'm fairly certain that very few people in WotC with much decision-making power actually give Legacy much more than idle thought.

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Originally Posted by Deadpool09

HMMM. wheres the ban tnn crowd? since its been a few months and a handful of tourney results, i figured legacy will bow down to the all mighty 3/1.
were still playing legacy right? format is still healthy as ever. yay!

oh. yeah, quote me on that.

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I agree, all it needs is Misstep back. :cool:

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Originally Posted by menace13

I agree, all it needs is Misstep back. :cool:

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Whoa, man. Easy on the crack.

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If the meta previous to Nov. 1st was any indication, SFM is fine. Punishing Jund had a fairly positive matchup against Esperblade. TNN isn't unfair, it just removes loads of interaction in a format where Wizards is looking to promote interaction.

It has pushed many decks to the periphery, and I don't like playing against it. I thought it would create a net gain of some Blade decks and a net loss of some BGx midrange decks, making the midrange split about 50/50. Instead, it moved it to over 90/10 in favour of TNN from a good 40/60 prior to TNN.

-Matt

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Originally Posted by sdematt

If the meta previous to Nov. 1st was any indication, SFM is fine. Punishing Jund had a fairly positive matchup against Esperblade. TNN isn't unfair, it just removes loads of interaction in a format where Wizards is looking to promote interaction.

It has pushed many decks to the periphery, and I don't like playing against it. I thought it would create a net gain of some Blade decks and a net loss of some BGx midrange decks, making the midrange split about 50/50. Instead, it moved it to over 90/10 in favour of TNN from a good 40/60 prior to TNN.

-Matt

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Damn! i'm so hot talking about all that on the podcast!

I advocate the banning of True-Name Nemesis less because it warps the metagame and more because it has caused a sharp rise in the number of Source posters going totally bonkers.

"don't ban cards; ban whiners" lol

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Originally Posted by Slag

I advocate the banning of True-Name Nemesis less because it warps the metagame and more because it has caused a sharp rise in the number of Source posters going totally bonkers.

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TNN is fine. The problem card is brainstorm.

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Originally Posted by testing32

TNN is fine. The problem card is brainstorm.

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That song again? Play your new Brainstorm-hatebear dood

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Originally Posted by Slag

I advocate the banning of True-Name Nemesis less because it warps the metagame and more because it has caused a sharp rise in the number of Source posters going totally bonkers.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

"don't ban cards; ban whiners" lol

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This is a thread to talk about bannings/unbannings and this is was people do using observations/conclusions/data. If you have a different opinion that's fine, but save the sarcastic (but surely funny :tongue:) comments to those hype/non-sense threads and not if there is an somehow reasonable discussion going on.

Ban Notion Thief. It makes Brainstorm bad and Brainstorm is the reason to play Legacy.

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Originally Posted by catmint

This is a thread to talk about bannings/unbannings and this is was people do using observations/conclusions/data. If you have a different opinion that's fine, but save the sarcastic (but surely funny :tongue:) comments to those hype/non-sense threads and not if there is an somehow reasonable discussion going on.

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I suppose if I were to phrase my point like a little less of a wad, I'd say it more like this: "True-Name Nemesis has implications outside just the metagame itself. The presence of such a powerful, difficult to answer card has created such a divide in the player base that the format itself is becoming a more caustic environment." It reminds me a lot of the reason wotc gave for banning ravager in standard; not that ravager was everywhere, but that players were finding the game less fun (and playing less) because of it.

I don't understand how the "the format has never been healthier" people in this thread just completely ignore the data for December 2013 and January 2014. In the now-closed "Would you like to see TNN go away" thread, I posted data showing how TNN was beginning to push out non-blue, non-TNN decks (citing Maverick as the prime example), but people said that Maverick didn't matter (uh... less non-blue decks able to compete with blue decks is a good thing?) and the format would adapt with more decks like Jund straight raping TNN decks... yeah, December 2013 and January 2014 sure showed how awesome Jund is doing versus TNN. In case people didn't notice, it's not. At all.

And I fully understand that January 2014's data is incomplete and that the final numbers will move things around, but I don't anticipate drastic changes in the next 8 days left in the month. Also, the TNN-killer, Jund, really has no reason as to why it's performing so poorly (other than losing to TNN-decks), particularly when Storm (one of it's worst matchups) is at a 6-8 month low. If TNN is where the format is right now, and if Jund truly just rapes TNN-decks for free with infinite answers like Golgari Charm, Toxic Deluge, Liliana of the Veil, Ancient Grudge, Pyroblast, etc, while not having to worry too much about facing Storm during a tournament, then wouldn't Jund be near the top of the format?

I suspect that it's mediocre performance in a TNN world is because Jund just isn't the TNN-killer it was billed to be. Jund, outside of the 1-2 Sylvan Library it may run, has no library manipulation to get their exact answer to TNN when it's needed. By overloading their deck with cards like Golgari Charm, Toxic Deluge, Ancient Grudge, etc, Jund is playing nothing but reactive cards to the blue player's proactive cards like Delver/SFM/TNN/etc; a non-blue deck that's essentially slaved to their natural draw step trying to play the control role versus a blue deck with Jace/TNN/Brainstorm/Snapcaster/etc isn't a winning proposition.

TNN-decks tend to be slightly grindier decks, with some veering on the tempo side of things (Patriot) while others prefer the control approach (Blade Control). Jund is also trying to grind the game down, but it lacks the luxury of having access to a near-invincible win condition and also lacks the versatility of Brainstorm to dig for it's answers to said near-invincible win condition.

That assessment is probably correct but then it seems only logical to switch to a UBx control deck which has access to all those TNN sweepers plus the library manipulation, such as BUG landstill maybe. However I can't imagine how the meta will shape up to be with the addition of the new hatebear.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

I don't understand how the "the format has never been healthier" people in this thread just completely ignore the data for December 2013 and January 2014. In the now-closed "Would you like to see TNN go away" thread, I posted data showing how TNN was beginning to push out non-blue, non-TNN decks (citing Maverick as the prime example), but people said that Maverick didn't matter (uh... less non-blue decks able to compete with blue decks is a good thing?) and the format would adapt with more decks like Jund straight raping TNN decks... yeah, December 2013 and January 2014 sure showed how awesome Jund is doing versus TNN. In case people didn't notice, it's not. At all.

And I fully understand that January 2014's data is incomplete and that the final numbers will move things around, but I don't anticipate drastic changes in the next 8 days left in the month. Also, the TNN-killer, Jund, really has no reason as to why it's performing so poorly (other than losing to TNN-decks), particularly when Storm (one of it's worst matchups) is at a 6-8 month low. If TNN is where the format is right now, and if Jund truly just rapes TNN-decks for free with infinite answers like Golgari Charm, Toxic Deluge, Liliana of the Veil, Ancient Grudge, Pyroblast, etc, while not having to worry too much about facing Storm during a tournament, then wouldn't Jund be near the top of the format?

I suspect that it's mediocre performance in a TNN world is because Jund just isn't the TNN-killer it was billed to be. Jund, outside of the 1-2 Sylvan Library it may run, has no library manipulation to get their exact answer to TNN when it's needed. By overloading their deck with cards like Golgari Charm, Toxic Deluge, Ancient Grudge, etc, Jund is playing nothing but reactive cards to the blue player's proactive cards like Delver/SFM/TNN/etc; a non-blue deck that's essentially slaved to their natural draw step trying to play the control role versus a blue deck with Jace/TNN/Brainstorm/Snapcaster/etc isn't a winning proposition.

TNN-decks tend to be slightly grindier decks, with some veering on the tempo side of things (Patriot) while others prefer the control approach (Blade Control). Jund is also trying to grind the game down, but it lacks the luxury of having access to a near-invincible win condition and also lacks the versatility of Brainstorm to dig for it's answers to said near-invincible win condition.

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I fear this is primary a numbers game. How many people played TNN+SFM decks compared to JUND during Dec/Jan?

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

I fear this is primary a numbers game. How many people played TNN+SFM decks compared to JUND during Dec/Jan?

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Unban Survival of the Fittest. Then Jund can play SFM+TNN. Problem solved.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

I fear this is primary a numbers game. How many people played TNN+SFM decks compared to JUND during Dec/Jan?

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Players, especially pros (which other players will follow like sheep), want to win. If Jund truly could just auto-win versus TNN-decks as people claimed it was going to do in the "Would you like to see TNN go away" thread, and the likelihood of it facing Storm is low (which it currently is), then I have to imagine that players would play whatever deck that gives them the best chance of winning, not necessarily the deck they like the most. As a pointed example, many players didn't "like" playing with Hulk Flash, but did so because it gave them the best chance at winning during that brief time in Legacy.

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Originally Posted by Higgs

That assessment is probably correct but then it seems only logical to switch to a UBx control deck which has access to all those TNN sweepers plus the library manipulation, such as BUG landstill maybe. However I can't imagine how the meta will shape up to be with the addition of the new hatebear.

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A UBx deck with access to Brainstorm and TNN-sweepers? There's a reason why Shardless BUG finished 4th (technically 5th after adjusting for DeathBlade's true calculation) for December 2013.