[Deck] T.E.S. - The EPIC Storm

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Originally Posted by oSeabass

Just making sure I am on the right page...

Keep 7 was:
Dark Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Silence, Rite of Flame, Gemstone Mine, Scalding Tarn, Gitaxian Probe
Top 2 cards from draw were:
Lotus Petal (draw for turn), Ponder.

So turn one you 1st thing play Probe blind and see the Lotus Petal/Sol Land, Land, S&T, Emrakul, whatever....

Probe (S1), Petal (S2), Land, Rite of Flame (S3, RR), Dark Ritual (S4, RRBBB), EtW makes 10 goblins and you pass. They drop a land and pass.
You swing for 10, pass, and during their upkeep Silence them?

Seems like that is a good enough argument to win off a blind Probe T1 instead of saving it. You sold me :)

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Well, in your example we were on the draw, so our opponent did land, go. If you Probe them and they have a turn 2 Emrakul/win (which is pretty unlikely), then obviously that Silence is not going to do anything. Our 10 tokens also won't beat an Emrakul, so your only option is to cast the Ponder we just drew, or to Silence in his upkeep.


EDIT for clarification: Opponent on the play:
O: Scalding Tarn
I: Probe into throw my hand at him
O: S&T -> Emrakul
I: Well fuck, I got a dead Silence now and my tokens aren't going to beat that guy


I think the question of Silence vs Ponder isn't that obvious in this scenario. If you Silence to gain a turn, you really only get a new card, but it allows your opponent to draw into countermagic. Now you're probably not beating a turn 2 Emrakul with countermagic, unless you see an Ad Nauseam with your Ponder or something else completely broken, so I think it's arguable that Silencing is the correct play. But this is kind of besides the point. The point is that even against his best hands, you still have a shot if you cast the Probe on turn 1, but you get the added bonus that you just win the game against a lot of his other hands.

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Originally Posted by Bahamuth

I think the question of Silence vs Ponder isn't that obvious in this scenario. If you Silence to gain a turn, you really only get a new card, but it allows your opponent to draw into countermagic. Now you're probably not beating a turn 2 Emrakul with countermagic, unless you see an Ad Nauseam with your Ponder or something else completely broken, so I think it's arguable that Silencing is the correct play. But this is kind of besides the point. The point is that even against his best hands, you still have a shot if you cast the Probe on turn 1, but you get the added bonus that you just win the game against a lot of his other hands.

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So Silence to draw an extra card (allowing him to do the same to potentially get counters), or Ponder to dig for the stone cold Ad Nauseam into Tendril kill (which also seems very weak to counters)? If he has the turn 2 on the play, I don't think we are beating that unless like you said, we get lucky and hit the one of Ad Nauseam, or keep drawing into Silence to stall until we can start casting cantrip on our turn + Silence his turn. Doesn't seem like a good situation for us.

The more I think about it the more I think of crazy ways to stop the opponent:
We draw into Lotus Petal, effectively giving us 2 mana. If we Gitaxian Probe and see the bonkers turn 2 hand from S&T, and we draw say a Burning Wish off the Probe: could it be relevant/correct to Rite of Flame into Burning wish, grabbing Cabal Therapy and the Petal to cast Therapy naming Show and Tell? This slows him down a bunch until he can find another fatty drop card, at the same time uses Petal, Rite of Flame, Probe, and Burning Wish from our hand effectively slowing us down a bunch too. Is that trade worth it if he just has the turn 2 Emrakul? (Still leaves us with: Dark Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Silence, One Land, with just a land in play)

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Please tell me how this hand should beat S&T in a realistic scenario?

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Admittedly we need help in order to do so. I will still contend that we aren't giving up percentage points (or at least a significant number of them) to cast Probe here.

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Originally Posted by oSeabass

So Silence to draw an extra card (allowing him to do the same to potentially get counters), or Ponder to dig for the stone cold Ad Nauseam into Tendril kill (which also seems very weak to counters)?

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If you Ponder into AdN, you can win with Silence next turn, since we have 3 initial mana sources, a Ritual, Rite and Silence.

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Originally Posted by oSeabass

If he has the turn 2 on the play, I don't think we are beating that unless like you said, we get lucky and hit the one of Ad Nauseam, or keep drawing into Silence to stall until we can start casting cantrip on our turn + Silence his turn. Doesn't seem like a good situation for us.

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It's obviously not a good situation, which is why I'm emphasizing that it's an unlikely situation, and that we'll just win the game against most other hands, while having a shot at drawing out of it if he has the nuts.

Casting Probe, we get the following:
- Instant win against hands that don't win quickly and don't have like 3 FoW (we can still just pass and make the 10 tokens next turn using the Silence.
- Good shot against a naked turn 2 Emrakul (LED+Tutor etc.. from Ponder)
- Pretty terrible shot at winning if he has the nuts of turn 2 Emrakul + countermagic, but still a single out of Ad Nauseam

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Originally Posted by oSeabass

The more I think about it the more I think of crazy ways to stop the opponent:
We draw into Lotus Petal, effectively giving us 2 mana. If we Gitaxian Probe and see the bonkers turn 2 hand from S&T, and we draw say a Burning Wish off the Probe: could it be relevant/correct to Rite of Flame into Burning wish, grabbing Cabal Therapy and the Petal to cast Therapy naming Show and Tell? This slows him down a bunch until he can find another fatty drop card, at the same time uses Petal, Rite of Flame, Probe, and Burning Wish from our hand effectively slowing us down a bunch too. Is that trade worth it if he just has the turn 2 Emrakul?

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On first sight it definitely seems worth it, but we can think about it.

So we drew Wish, and we're looking to not die to turn 2 Emrakul. If we don't Therapy him, we pass the turn and he drops his Emrakul. Now we have a single draw to find an out, which can only be winning on that same turn or making 24 tokens. The best card we can draw here is either Ritual or Rite because it gives us the following win (call whatever we drew X):
Land (2 now), Petal, Silence, Ritual, Rite, X, Wish, PiF, Probe (drawing whatever), Rite, Ritual, X, EtW

This EtW makes 24 tokens, so we can sac 4 and 2 land to Emrakul and swing for the win. LED and Petal will both work too if he put himself at 18, or if we draw them from a Probe. Aside from drawing a Brainstorm into something broken, I think those are the only outs. It accounts for 6/51 cards, or (3/51)*(13/51) for Probe.

Unfortunately, these numbers don't really tell us much except that we can say something like "Oh, well that doesn't seem like a good plan then, they're pretty low numbers and all", but we are comparing against the other option which is to discard 3 cards to get rid of his S&T and which we can never quantify. In a real life situation, I would just consider my outs, notice that there aren't that many of them, and just Therapy his S&T and hope to draw something broken like a Brainstorm.

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Originally Posted by Bahamuth

You turn 1 EtW and Silence the turn before you win the game. I'm pretty sure this hand almost always beats S&T.

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- You cast EtW for 10 turn 1, IF they have no FoW/Spell Pierce.
- You can timewalk them, IF they don't have Ancient Tomb or a counterspell
- All asuming they have S&T already 'cause there was no turn 1 cantrip

Tbh, I would not start discussing scenarios based on drawn cards off Probe/Ponder

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

You cast EtW for 10 turn 1, IF they have no FoW/Spell Pierce.

You can timewalk them, IF they don't have Ancient Tomb or a counterspell


All asuming they have S&T already 'cause there was no turn 1 cantrip

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Please read my above post. Your first scenario is the complete nuts and you're not beating that. Your second scenario means turn 2 Emrakul, which I go over.

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Originally Posted by Bahamuth

Please read my above post. Your first scenario is the complete nuts and you're not beating that. Your second scenario means turn 2 Emrakul, which I go over.

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Why are you take examples with Emrakul and not Griselbrand/Omniscience which are much more likely to be S&T'd into play these days? Both beat the 10 Goblins

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Why are you take examples with Emrakul and not Griselbrand/Omniscience which are much more likely to be S&T'd into play these days? Both beat the 10 Goblins

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How the hell is this relevant? If he's going to turn 2 S&T, it doesn't make a difference at all, 10 tokens doesn't win anyway. If he has turn 3 S&T, we're Silencing him.

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Originally Posted by Bahamuth

How the hell is this relevant? If he's going to turn 2 S&T, it doesn't make a difference at all, 10 tokens doesn't win anyway. If he has turn 3 S&T, we're Silencing him.

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You still asume that your opponent never has any piece of disruption in all your scenarios, nor have you ever adressed the meaning of him leaving a Fetchland untapped aka don't need to cantrip into anything, so getting your Silence discarded/countered is relevant because the named S&T targets are enough in turn 3.

If we now discuss scenarios against goldfishes or switch being on the play/draw at will, it's pointless to continue

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

You still asume that your opponent never has any piece of disruption in all your scenarios,

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???? Have you read my posts????

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

nor have you ever adressed the meaning of him leaving a Fetchland untapped aka don't need to cantrip into anything, so getting your Silence discarded/countered is relevant because the named S&T targets are enough in turn 3.

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I don't get your point here. First of all, untapped fetchland could mean Brainstorm (if he knows what he's doing), and secondly, you are just describing the complete nuts hand again, which I told you I'm willing to lose to, or at least have a very small amount of outs against. By the way, if you're playing against the complete nuts of turn 2 win + countermagic, going Tarn go (as you suggest) is WAY worse than doing turn 1 Probe Ponder.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

If we now discuss scenarios against goldfishes

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I do not do this, read my post.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

or switch being on the play/draw at will, it's pointless to continue

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I do not do this. Seabass confused this in one of his posts.

Dark Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Silence, Rite of Flame, Gemstone Mine, Scalding Tarn, Gitaxian Probe sounds like a weak keep for me on the draw regardless. Turn 1 empty for 10 gets beaten out by turn 2 stoneforge for instance. I might wait on the probe to gain info on a combo turn if i didn't straight mulligan this hand on the draw. On the play I'd consider probe into seeing if I can cast the goblins and winning.

The prescribed game plan seems weak against everything not RUG to be honest. If I suspect I'm against sneak and show I'm looking to save the disruption for the combo turn if I can. Stalling them for a turn will not win it for you against a lot of their draws

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Originally Posted by Tammit67

Dark Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Silence, Rite of Flame, Gemstone Mine, Scalding Tarn, Gitaxian Probe sounds like a weak keep for me on the draw regardless. Turn 1 empty for 10 gets beaten out by turn 2 stoneforge for instance. I might wait on the probe to gain info on a combo turn if i didn't straight mulligan this hand on the draw. On the play I'd consider probe into seeing if I can cast the goblins and winning.

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I don't know if this hand is a mulligan against a blind opponent. I think I would keep it, since there are a lot of draws that improve the EtW plan quite a bit (anything you can cast basically makes the plan better). However, I would never Probe on turn 1, because there are only 7 cards in my deck that will enable me to EtW on turn 1.

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Originally Posted by Tammit67

The prescribed game plan seems weak against everything not RUG to be honest. If I suspect I'm against sneak and show I'm looking to save the disruption for the combo turn if I can. Stalling them for a turn will not win it for you against a lot of their draws

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I think there are more decks it's pretty strong against. For instance, it's a good hand against Storm, since you'll get to put pressure on the board and have a Silence. Additionally, the game plan of this hand changes according to what Probe sees/draws. The fact that this hand (in my opinion) GETS to play a turn 1 Probe (because it's a good play), makes the hand better, because you are guaranteed that information on turn 1.

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Originally Posted by Bahamuth

I don't know if this hand is a mulligan against a blind opponent. I think I would keep it, since there are a lot of draws that improve the EtW plan quite a bit (anything you can cast basically makes the plan better). However, I would never Probe on turn 1, because there are only 7 cards in my deck that will enable me to EtW on turn 1.

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Improving the empty plan to 12 or 14 goblins turn 2 or 3 i don't think is that compelling.

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I think there are more decks it's pretty strong against. For instance, it's a good hand against Storm, since you'll get to put pressure on the board and have a Silence. Additionally, the game plan of this hand changes according to what Probe sees/draws. The fact that this hand (in my opinion) GETS to play a turn 1 Probe (because it's a good play), makes the hand better, because you are guaranteed that information on turn 1.

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Its ok against storm, you give them a free turn 2 should you drop for empty and the chance to tag the silence for free. They are equipped to kill you on their turn 3 protected at 10 life a reasonable amount of the time. While not terrible there are better hands and I think there are better 6 card hands.

Wait a minute...

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However, I would never Probe on turn 1, because there are only 7 cards in my deck that will enable me to EtW on turn 1.

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The fact that this hand (in my opinion) GETS to play a turn 1 Probe (because it's a good play), makes the hand better, because you are guaranteed that information on turn 1.

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:eyebrow: Which stance do you want to take?:eyebrow:

EDIT: In general I try to gain the information as close as possible to the turn I am likely to go off. Here it is unlikely I'd turn 1 goblins either due to only having 7 things to hit and a number of opposing options that prevent my line for winning even if I should draw those 7.

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Originally Posted by Bahamuth

I don't get your point here. First of all, untapped fetchland could mean Brainstorm (if he knows what he's doing), and secondly, you are just describing the complete nuts hand again, which I told you I'm willing to lose to, or at least have a very small amount of outs against. By the way, if you're playing against the complete nuts of turn 2 win + countermagic, going Tarn go (as you suggest) is WAY worse than doing turn 1 Probe Ponder.

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An untapped Fetchland can hint to a S&T-deck having the namesake-card in their hand, Stifle, Brainstorm, Spell Pierce, turn 2 Hymn, SFM, Goofy, Daze, Counterbalance, etc. It's a surprise-box with various possibilities and therefore I'm not a Fan of casting T1 Probe just to see one or more options preventing a T1 EtW and have to move to T2 anyways but have less stormcount and less insight about his hand/plays aside from the mentioned Striptease you perform by casting T1 Probe and having to ship the turn

Maybe I didnt make this clear enough. I would probe if I am on the draw, not on the plat.

In my limited experience with the deck, I would do the turn one blind Probe to see what we are up against because of the EtW in hand. If we draw into another ritual or just straight into AdN we are in good shape knowing if the coast is clear. I feel like when I am playing with the deck I am looking to pull the trigger on EtW more often then trying to do the tricky math (that I haven't had enough time learning yet) and trying to get there with a LONG chain a turn or 2 later.

Once I get more familiar with the cantrips and how they are affecting my hands/keeps I will probably be able to know when to go EtW for 10 goblins, or just wait for a longer, stable, Tendril kill.

I normally save most of my free spells until my combo turn, but with a hand with that many rituals and an EtW (no LED/tutor) I am keeping it looking to just shove turn 1 or 2 if the coast is clear. Tammit makes a point that the hand is a marginal keep on the draw... I didn't consider that as an option. I see 1. a kill card (EtW) 2. some lands 3. some rituals. I figure with the Probe turn 1 I can just go for it. I do like the idea of basing this also on what they do (on the draw). If they play some blue land I would be more hesitant to shove into a hand I don't know (for the EtW turn 2 for like 12 Goblins). If they play like a basic mountain, or a Savannah into GSZ -> Drayd Arbor, I am feeling a lot better about holding the Probe for the combo turn to build extra storm..... then again, knowing if they have a Thalia or a hate bear to push a turn earlier seems important, either way, a turn 2 Thalia throws a wrench in either plan and I think I am just shoving in on Goblins if I see the Maverick player get mana in one way or another on their play turn 1.

I just wanna say thanks again to everyone who has been chiming in. Thinking about all these lines seems healthy for learning the deck. :tongue:

Am I also crazy for considering dropping 10 goblins (maybe even 12 with a brainstorm in resp) on T1? Yes we're cold to Force but can play through a Daze.

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Originally Posted by oSeabass

In my limited experience with the deck, I would do the turn one blind Probe to see what we are up against because of the EtW in hand. If we draw into another ritual or just straight into AdN we are in good shape knowing if the coast is clear. I feel like when I am playing with the deck I am looking to pull the trigger on EtW more often then trying to do the tricky math (that I haven't had enough time learning yet) and trying to get there with a LONG chain a turn or 2 later.

Once I get more familiar with the cantrips and how they are affecting my hands/keeps I will probably be able to know when to go EtW for 10 goblins, or just wait for a longer, stable, Tendril kill.

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Would you consider a Brainstorm in your opponents hand as "clear"?

The point is that 10 goblins are often too slow as soon as a blocker like DRS, SFM or else makes it onto the battlefield

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Originally Posted by davelin

Am I also crazy for considering dropping 10 goblins (maybe even 12 with a brainstorm in resp) on T1? Yes we're cold to Force but can play through a Daze.

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Playing through a Daze requires you to chain spells correctly, something that not everyone remembers ;)

My point was about odds. Imo the odds against a deck, that opens with "blue-Fetchland, go", to successfully chain 5 spells T1 is very low for only 10 goblins ,which fold to a wide array of decks/spells anyways

After reading about a hundred posts, I have decided I side with Bahamuth. Not because he's Dutch, but because I feel he is right. And that's weird, because I know Lemnear as the more agressive and risk-loving player, while he votes for slow-rolling the hand, and the usually slightly conservative combo player Bahamuth suggests we try to blow up on turn one.

I think that we should always Probe on turn one. Reasons:
1. We can do sick shit on turn one with this hand. We should always check if that's an option. We play TES right?
2. Show and Tell decks can beat us, but the Omniscience-Enter the Infinite decks usually go off after 3 turns or durdling, and even the others still need a nut draw to beat our Silence. Probe will tell us what's what.
3. Another option is Canadian Thresh. Empty is pretty good against them. Probe now is mandatory on turn one, because we desperately need to know what's going on at the other side of the table. We have no other cantrips (remember we haven't seen the Ponder yet), so chances for finding more protection are slim. The extra card Probe draws us, combined with the info we get, will tell us how to play the remainder of our turn one, and how to build up the rest.
4. If they are on StoneBlade, we need to know what's what as soon as possible. They have little counterspells main deck, and we need to know whether our Empty can actually beat them at all (Mystic into Batterskull? Oh crap!).
5. If they are on Miracles, and we durdle for a bit, they get the opportunity to lock us out with Counterbalance. We need to know whether our best option, winning before CB hits the table, is actually an option in the first place (so no Terminus + Brainstorm in hand or something like that).

Mulling this hand? How many beers have you had this evening? We have accelleration, a kill spell, a protection spell, lands and a Probe. Seems amazing to me. Remember this is game 1, we don't know what he plays and the fact that we are on the draw means we see two more cards on our first turn (if we Probe, that is). Snap keep in my opinion.