[Deck] T.E.S. - The EPIC Storm

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Originally Posted by Asthereal

After reading about a hundred posts, I have decided I side with Bahamuth. Not because he's Dutch, but because I feel he is right. And that's weird, because I know Lemnear as the more agressive and risk-loving player, while he votes for slow-rolling the hand, and the usually slightly conservative combo player Bahamuth suggests we try to blow up on turn one.

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I do this for the named three reasons:

1) EtW for 10 isn't a sure kill (aside against RUG) in a metagame full of sweepers, combo decks and SFM->Batterskull
2) I take a million possible, backbreaking cards into account, which opponents Fetchland allows and Push the combo turn back to your second in the game, regardless of Probe or not with the downside of having less storm and information
3) G.Probe wields Information for both sided of the table. Suddenly they know what you are on and how to prepare, not making mistakes like dropping T2 Tarmogoyf

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Originally Posted by Asthereal

Mulling this hand? How many beers have you had this evening? We have acceleration, a kill spell, a protection spell, lands and a Probe. Seems amazing to me. Remember this is game 1, we don't know what he plays and the fact that we are on the draw means we see two more cards on our first turn (if we Probe, that is). Snap keep in my opinion.

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I don't drink. Your kill spell is really half decent and not much else: You can't go off protected until turn 2 (Only because we happen to hit a petal and even then its not really for a lot) and lose the race to a number of things. Your hand has issues against soft counters, discard, stoneforge, hatebears, other combo decks. You also don't have the cantrips to power through your deck in an effort to fight through those. I really don't like this hand unless I know a late EtW is live.

Arguing this is game 1 and therefore its a better hand seems counterintuitive. This hand is only keepable against RUG IMO since empty for 12 turn 1 or 2 and empty for 14 turn 4 are generally just as lethal. This is not the case in a number of other common matchups.

I do not claim to be a good storm player, but I honestly would probably keep this hand. It is light on cantrips unfortunately, but Blind I usually keep. Of course I have been burned by going for empty ALOT. Tarn to me indicates RUG or SNT. Obviously storm is another option, but I make the assumption that it is RUG. If they go Fetch go, then either they have a BS or a stifle. If they are on SnT they either have BS or probably T2 SnT. So its a very meh proposition to attempt to go off. Which is why I can agree with Lemnear on not even Probing T1. The Odds of winning with empty vs these few possibilities are not amazing

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Originally Posted by Megadeus

I do not claim to be a good storm player, but I honestly would probably keep this hand. It is light on cantrips unfortunately, but Blind I usually keep. Of course I have been burned by going for empty ALOT. Tarn to me indicates RUG or SNT. Obviously storm is another option, but I make the assumption that it is RUG. If they go Fetch go, then either they have a BS or a stifle. If they are on SnT they either have BS or probably T2 SnT. So its a very meh proposition to attempt to go off. Which is why I can agree with Lemnear on not even Probing T1. The Odds of winning with empty vs these few possibilities are not amazing

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RUG can hold Spell Pierce, Daze and FoW itself too, just to complete the list.

@Topic
This means that basically half their deck prevents a unprotected turn 1 EtW here. With 6 cards in their hand, the Chance of them having one of the cards is above 90%, so G.Probe is a waste here. In essence, you will have to go off with this hand turn 2 after casting Probe (seeing their drawn card too, unlike the T1 blind-Probe) + Silence, if your opponent is RUG Delver.

To be blown out by just passing the turn is limited to 3 options: playing against TES, or against S&T with the namesake already in hand, or against SFM. Think about it and you might agree that EtW isn't an option against these 3 anyways, so you are either dead in the water or able to rip a tutor/AN off the top

@mulligan
I doubt a mulligan-hand spoils us with more than 2 Rituals, 2 IMS and 2 biz-spells. You can't mull that hand game 1 against an unknown opponent

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

To be blown out by just passing the turn is limited to 3 options: playing against TES, or against S&T with the namesake already in hand, or against SFM. Think about it and you might agree that EtW isn't an option against these 3 anyways to you are either dead in the water or able to rip a tutor/AN off the top

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There's way more, like Hymn, Thalia, Chalice etc. People play random shit in Legacy. Regardless, are ignoring the fact that we gain information from the first Probe. Of course EtW is an option against those decks, but it depends on their hands. If the storm deck cannot kill you next turn, then of course you're going to drop the tokens.

The whole point of my argument is that by casting a Probe, you lose some marginal value in the shape of storm count and earlier information in case you cannot win, but you gain the huge advantage of being able to win the game a lot.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

RUG can hold Spell Pierce, Daze and FoW itself too, just to complete the list.

@Topic
This means that basically half their deck prevents a unprotected turn 1 EtW here. With 6 cards in their hand, the Chance of them having one of the cards is above 90%, so G.Probe is a waste here. In essence, you will have to go off with this hand turn 2 after casting Probe (seeing their drawn card too, unlike the T1 blind-Probe) + Silence, if your opponent is RUG Delver.

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You win through Daze.

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Originally Posted by Bahamuth

There's way more, like Hymn, Thalia, Chalice etc. People play random shit in Legacy. Regardless, are ignoring the fact that we gain information from the first Probe. Of course EtW is an option against those decks, but it depends on their hands. If the storm deck cannot kill you next turn, then of course you're going to drop the tokens.

The whole point of my argument is that by casting a Probe, you lose some marginal value in the shape of storm count and earlier information in case you cannot win, but you gain the huge advantage of being able to win the game a lot.

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Imo the Fetchland isn't indicating Hymn, Thalia or Chalice on turn 2, even Hymn isn't impossible.

My issue is, that casting Probe turn 1 gives free information to BOTH players, which is a backbreaker against RUG Delver and friends if you can't go off the same turn. So, unless I have to cantrip into X turn 1 won't cast T1 Probe ever and rather gamble against the nut-draw of my opponent (@Asthereal ;D)

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Originally Posted by Bahamuth

You win through Daze.

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That depends on your opponents timing and your sequence of spells. It's hilarious how many mistakes happen here IRL

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

My issue is, that casting Probe turn 1 gives free information to BOTH players, which is a backbreaker against RUG Delver and friends if you can't go off the same turn.

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I think this is normally true, but in this particular case, RUG doesn't have that many hands that will be played differently in such a way that they can beat turn 2 Silence + EtW

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

So, unless I have to cantrip into X turn 1 won't cast T1 Probe ever and rather gamble against the nut-draw of my opponent (@Asthereal ;D)

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Well, I don't think I'm going to convince you. As a final advantage of casting the Probe, you also get to cast any Ponders/Duresses you draw off of it immediately if appropriate, which can make a big difference.

I enjoy these discussions though. Hope people will come up with more of these scenario's.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

That depends on your opponents timing and your sequence of spells. It's hilarious how many mistakes happen here IRL

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I think you go through it always. You do:
Probe (if they Daze this, you laugh at them and build tokens in the second main phase)
Fetch/play the Mine
Petal (if they Daze here, you Ritual in response, pay, Rite, EtW)
Rite (if they Daze here, you Ritual in response and Pay)
Ritual (if they Daze here, you pay a red from the Rite)
EtW (yeah they're not dazing this)

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Originally Posted by Tammit67

I don't drink. Your kill spell is really half decent and not much else: You can't go off protected until turn 2 (Only because we happen to hit a petal and even then its not really for a lot) and lose the race to a number of things. Your hand has issues against soft counters, discard, stoneforge, hatebears, other combo decks. You also don't have the cantrips to power through your deck in an effort to fight through those. I really don't like this hand unless I know a late EtW is live.

Arguing this is game 1 and therefore its a better hand seems counterintuitive. This hand is only keepable against RUG IMO since empty for 12 turn 1 or 2 and empty for 14 turn 4 are generally just as lethal. This is not the case in a number of other common matchups.

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Remember this is game one. They haven't boarded yet, so the chances of seeing a hate bear are slim. Counters on the other hand are much more likely, but Empty in hand is good against them. We also have a Silence, which can turn the tide against many matchups. We also have a draw from being on the draw, a draw from Probe and a draw from our turn two, so we get three more cards before we have to decide whether to go for it turn two. That's good chances of hitting a Wish/Infernal, more protection or more accelleration, or a cantrip to find us what we want. And we will know what we want because we have a Probe.

It is true that Empty is one of our worst business spells, but it's strong against Thresh, Shardless BUG (only one Pulse main) and Jund (maximum one Pulse main), which are three of the more popular DTBs. And now for the most important part: what are the odds that your six wioll be better? Right now we have 2x land, 2x accell, 1x business, 1x protection and 1x Probe. That is a very balanced hand. I don't know the exact odds because my maths isn't very good, but it feels like a mulligan would have about 70% chance of being worse than this hand.


Btw, Lemnear is correct that the Tarn doesn't indicate Hymn to Tourach could come.
Optimal lists of BUG and Jund don't play Tarns, and no one plays Grixis Tempo. :wink:
Also Thalia is pretty off colour to a Tarn and Chalice is usually played in decks without fetch.

There is no doubt, that there are enough options to play through Daze, but I've seen countless players starting with Dark Ritual rather than RoF or play their Lands/Petals/LEDs before that in the named Order, getting their big mana accelerants countered.

It's my mental game here to give as much misinformation to my opponent as possible and trick them into an aggressive play, believing I'm on RUG/BUG, rather than storm, if I feel, that I have to wait 'till turn 2 anyways



Edit: Heck, I even tricked Asthereal, thinking I'm getting conservative rather than doing mindtricks and gambling against opponents turn 2 blowouts xD

Agreed, this discussion has been very useful and made me question some taken-for-granted assumptions I was making. Some follow-up questions for this scenario -

1) Mulligan/no-mulligan: I am still in the no-mulligan this hand camp against an unknown player. Does this change if we know if the opponent is playing RUG or SnT? Against SnT this seems like a for sure mulligan because it doesn't have a T1-T2 kill and doesn't really disrupt our opponent. Against RUG (even after SBing) I think I would still keep, incorrect?

2) Say instead of Fetchland -> Go, our opponent went Fetchland into Delver, does our T1 play change? We now know what our opponent is on and has a clock (albeit a slow one for now). If he went Fetchland into Ponder, thus indicating they are on combo, what is our general plan here as well?

I honestly blind would keep the hand. Sequencing would change depending on the land they drop though

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Originally Posted by davelin

Agreed, this discussion has been very useful and made me question some taken-for-granted assumptions I was making. Some follow-up questions for this scenario -

1) Mulligan/no-mulligan: I am still in the no-mulligan this hand camp against an unknown player. Does this change if we know if the opponent is playing RUG or SnT? Against SnT this seems like a for sure mulligan because it doesn't have a T1-T2 kill and doesn't really disrupt our opponent. Against RUG (even after SBing) I think I would still keep, incorrect?

2) Say instead of Fetchland -> Go, our opponent went Fetchland into Delver, does our T1 play change? We now know what our opponent is on and has a clock (albeit a slow one for now). If he went Fetchland into Ponder, thus indicating they are on combo, what is our general plan here as well?

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1) Would keep that hand in both cases. You have 2 IMS, can Silence-Walk, Ritual, Rite and will see the next 6 cards within a turn to find AN/Infernal/Wish/Duress against S&T. The failure in this matchup would be wasting your resources for EtW.

2) sure it does! Because you know your opponent at this point and his options are limited to FoW and Daze, with the later being dodgable, the odds for a successful EtW are tremendously higher in that case.

1) Lemnear forgets that we only see the Ponder after drawing the second card (from Probe). I would still keep though. Silence is pretty good, and they need a god hand to leave us chanceless. What if they need to cantrip a fewtimes before they find their kill? If they durdle for a few turns they just die, and we do have a t2 EtW for at least 8 in our opener, not taking into account any cards we will draw in the meantime. And we draw 3 before we would go off turn 2 anyway. What is also good is that we don't have to use LED, so any disruption we have and draw will stay in our hand when we go off. Looking at our options to draw, only lands are not interesting to get, and chances of drawing an extra land are (2 lands already drawn) 10/53 = <20%. Seems okay to me.

2) Lemnear's remark is spot on here.

Indeed! I mistake the Ponder for being in the starting grip.

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Originally Posted by Asthereal

1) Lemnear forgets that we only see the Ponder after drawing the second card (from Probe). I would still keep though. Silence is pretty good, and they need a god hand to leave us chanceless. What if they need to cantrip a fewtimes before they find their kill? If they durdle for a few turns they just die, and we do have a t2 EtW for at least 8 in our opener, not taking into account any cards we will draw in the meantime. And we draw 3 before we would go off turn 2 anyway. What is also good is that we don't have to use LED, so any disruption we have and draw will stay in our hand when we go off. Looking at our options to draw, only lands are not interesting to get, and chances of drawing an extra land are (2 lands already drawn) 10/53 = <20%. Seems okay to me.

2) Lemnear's remark is spot on here.

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How about in the situation where our opponent goes Fetchland -> Ponder which probably tips towards a combo-deck? I'm assuming we're dropping a T1 Probe to see how close they are to going off and if we need to possibly Silence-walk on their T2 or use our own Ponder to further disrupt and hopefully setup a win?

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Originally Posted by davelin

How about in the situation where our opponent goes Fetchland -> Ponder which probably tips towards a combo-deck? I'm assuming we're dropping a T1 Probe to see how close they are to going off and if we need to possibly Silence-walk on their T2 or use our own Ponder to further disrupt and hopefully setup a win?

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That play could indicate TES, ANT, S&T, Reanimator, etc. and I tend to agree that here Probe is a solid choice, 'because you need to know, how much time you have and if proceeding with EtW is a valid option or if you have to prepare Silence

Be fair RUG plays Ponder as well.

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Originally Posted by Megadeus

Be fair RUG plays Ponder as well.

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At least not the latest lists I have seen :/

Tbh I'm more concered about them starting to run Gitaxian Probe to plan their turns and to see if they can tap out for a Goofy and Co.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

At least not the latest lists I have seen :/

Tbh I'm more concered about them starting to run Gitaxian Probe to plan their turns and to see if they can tap out for a Goofy and Co.

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No, that's incorrect. RUG is always playing 4 Ponder. Gitaxian Probe is a recent addition that's not permanent yet.

Trop-Ponder would leads me to suspect RUG Delver, but Volc-Ponder is too ambiguous to know for sure without Probing.

So in games 2&3, the amount of hate that I have started seeing is mind blowing. If the hate is counter magic from blue decks, Silence, X Swarm, and Cabal Therapy make quick work. Against decks like Maverick and such running creature hate, Abrupt Decay is king. Against the combo decks, we bring in the Cabal Therapy and go a little slower to be more consistent with the combo. Against hate bears, we take out Silence (bad against creature hate), and bring in Abrupt Decays and Chain of Vapor (for the combo turn against Thalia and friends).

What is the plan against decks like UB Tezzeret, that run a combination of Force of Will/Counterspells AND hate bear type cards like Chalice of the Void and Trinisphere? Taking out Silence is probably not a good choice since they probably run 3-4 Force. Cabal Therapy is only REALLY good with a Probe to see which piece of hate they have. Duress is probably best here for stopping it before it gets bad. But like, a turn one Chalice on One, into a Trinisphere.... don't think we can reasonably beat that against any kind of clock.

That UB Tezz matchup seems really poor unless we just go for it Turn 1 on the play before hate comes down, or if we see their hand and know we have a few turns to sculpt.