[Deck] Burn

i've been goldfishing my build of burn a lot. and i have found it very helpfull to keep track of how much damage you've done on turns 3 and 4 even if its not yet 20.
it is amazing how many times its 18 or 19 damage on turn 4. also if you have fanatics or marauders, i would suggest keeping the attack damage seperate from the burn damage (so that a 04 wall turn 1 doesnt ruin your average). i've been keeping track of it on each turn (including turn 1) writing it as X+Y where X is the burn damage so far and Y is the attack damage (i run both moggs and marauders so there's quite a bit of attack damage some times). so i know that against decks that didnt block the first turn mogg or the marauders turn 4, i win on turn 4 (most of the time), but ones that would have blocked all attack damage, it tends to be turn 5.

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Originally Posted by kirbysdl

I don't really understand what you mean by the first part. Since I'm not running anything like Ensnaring Bridge, what could prevent a kill?

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I guess it was a bit vague, and it can be difficult to use mere numbers for those types of observations. lol

While it's hard to be too specific (I don't know the list you're testing), I'll attempt to clarify.

There's the normal stuff like...
Are you getting clogged with 2+ Sweepers often?
Clogged with to many Shard Volley's/Fireblasts without enough lands to sac?
How often does 2+ of card "X" slow you down?

Then there's the more subtle things. Your idea that "I'm pretty much always going to wish that everything that isn't a Lightning Bolt or Fireblast was a Lightning Bolt or Fireblast." isn't too far off base, but there's more to it than just that. Which one would be better more often, Bolt or Blast?

Burn can win on turn 3. Look at your first 9-10 cards (+1 for every Wraith/Baubble seen) and there's usually at least one or two cards stopping you. These cards are our "necessary evils", and/or our "fillers" (Sweepers, Jets, Browbeats, Baubles, Wraiths, etc.) Would that Flamebreak have been a turn 3 win as a 3-for-1, or as a 4-for-2? Take note because ideally you want this ratio to be 50/50. If you notice a heavy slant you can tune the deck accordingly. Another issue is the "fillers" as a whole. Do most of your opening 9-10 cards contain 1-2 "stoppers", or 3-4+? If it's 3-4+ could you trim a few?

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Originally Posted by kirbysdl

I guess the overkill thing is not strictly needed, but if for example the deck goldfishes to 19 regularly, it might be sufficient in a fetchland/suicide-heavy environment.

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I don't see Overkill burn (>20) as much more than just a "for fun" stat, but I do agree that, if you're in a fetch heavy meta, you can likely take note of your "19 dmg wins".

What do you guys think about this deck?

Damage x34:
4 Fireblast
4 Incinerate
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Magma Jet
4 Chain Lightning
4 Flame Rift
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

Land x20:
2 Barbarian Ring
18 Mountain

Creatures x5:
Grim Lavamancer x2
Keldon Marauders x3

Draw x3:
Needle Drop x3

Btw, im putting in price of progress, just havent decided where at yet

Howabout in place of the 3 Needle Drops? Needle Drop really isn't very strong in Legacy.

Drop the Lavamancers. They are the only real targets for creature removal (Marauders vanish too quickly to even count as one... maybe half) and are slow damage, since they will never get those 2 in the face of the opponent as soon as they are drawn.

Also, isn't 20 lands too much? /shrug on this, really.

Code:

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Burn Deck Goldfishing

30 Games with version 1/30/2008

                  0    1    2    3    4+    Avg
A Starting Land  (2)  (4)  12    9    9    2.53  (Avg includes mulled hands)
B Starting Bolts  3    8    12    5    2    1.83  (Bolts include Shard Volley)
C Mulligans      25    4    1                0.20

                  2,3  4    5    6    7+    Avg
D Kill Turn            16    11    1    2    4.63  (20 damage on this turn)
E Thresh Turn          13    14    2    1    4.70  (est. for reaching Thresh)
F Topdeck Turn          2    17    11          5.30  (est. for depleting hand)
G Lands Seen      2,13  5    6    3    1    3.93  (including those Scryed)
H Ideal Lands    0,20  10                      3.33  (est. ideal for this hand)

                  0    1    2    3    4+    Avg
I Lands Scryed    24    4    2                0.27
J Lands Sacced    8    5    12    4    1    1.5

                  6-    7    8    9    10+  Avg
K Total in Yard  5    6    12    7          7.70  (After reaching 20 damage)

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Game Phases

Early, turns 1-3: you've 1 or 2 land in play, and are constrained by available mana. Rift Bolts and Keldon Marauders are best dropped now.
Mid, turns 4-5: you've dropped 3-4 land, and are looking to end the game with sac-land spells. Rift Bolts and Marauders played now are too slow to participate in an ideal finish. Magma Jet is good here to set up a win.
Late, turns 6+: You're now in top-deck mode, and hopefully you have Thresh to sac Barbarian Ring for extra reach. Magma Jet is still nice here, but it is arguably too little too late. Against a good Legacy deck, you're already dead.

Land Count

I mull on 0,1, and 5+ land. I'm considering mulling on 4 lands too, because my 6+ turn kills ALL started with 4 lands. 1 starting Land is too risky... you really need land on your next two draws to maintain speed, and you can't even Magma Jet to land when you have 1. (If you have 4 land and a Magma Jet, you can count on Scrying away some land for more gas).

Going to 18 lands is too risky. If we take the number of starting Bolts as an indication, I'd be doubling the number of times I mull (from 6 (A) to 11 (B) in this batch of tests).

I will consider dropping to 19 lands. Our current average of 2.5 land in the starting hand (A) is just about perfect, but overall we're seeing a few more land than we'd like to (G).

There doesn't seem to be any hand where we want to see more than 4 land during the course of the game, and a little over 3 is usually the ideal number (H)*. Currently we're seeing too many land (G), and even more than we can Scry away (I). This supports the idea of dropping to 19 lands even though it makes the initial hands more risky.

* This value is just a guess, really.

Saccing Lands

We only sac an average of 1.5 lands per game (J), while we currently are seeing around 3.6 (G-I) lands per game. This indicates that going up to 3 Shard Volleys should be possible. The question remains whether to substitute a Shard Volley in for an Incinerate, or to drop a Land for another Incinerate. From the analysis above, the latter seems like a better first step.

Barbarian Ring, Thresh

(K) indicates the cards in the yard when lethal damage has been dealt.

Note that we usually expect to get Thresh (E) just after we'd already done lethal damage (D). At first glance this means Barb Ring is useless, but in real duels we can't expect every burn spell to be directed at the opponent, nor can we expect our Marauders to connect every time. Testing in a vacuum sucks...

Scryed Spells

I Scryed away 2x Keldon Marauders and 1x Shard Volley. The former because they're suboptimal when reaching for the quick kill (much like Rift Bolt), and the latter was during a mana-light game. I suspect I'd be less willing to Scry away Marauders during a real game.

Deck Speed

With all the self-damage that happens in Legacy, there's a good chance that this deck can actually goldfish half a turn faster than shown. I'll note how many turns it takes to get 18, 19, and 20 damage next time. (To be fair, disruption/blocking should add at least a turn to that value.)

Hmm how about this list?

Damage x37:
4 Fireblast
4 Incinerate
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Magma Jet
4 Chain Lightning
4 Flame Rift
4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
3 Price of Progress

Land x20:
2 Barbarian Ring
16 Mountain

Creatures x7:
Street Wraith x4
Keldon Marauders x3

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Originally Posted by thehunter820

Hmm how about this list?

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Instead of posting lists, it may be simpler to discuss individual card choice ideas or deckbuilding philosophies. For example, I've been focusing on theory such as landcount and the interaction of Shard Volley and Barbarian Ring. After all:

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Originally Posted by kirbysdl

We use Fireblast and 16 bolts. Add Magma Jet, a set of creatures, and PoP. Sprinkle with Flame Rift and Flamebreak. The other 4 cards or so are just flavoring, and pretty much anything halfway decent can be used without really affecting the deck too much.

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After taking care of the must-haves, Burn is highly meta-dependent so it's difficult to look at a list without any explanation and then give useful feedback. Without further information, I'd say "Run my list!" :smile:

EDIT: Won 1st out of 20 tonight in a 4-round Swiss tourney. I faced 2x Kithkin, 1x random Black Aggro, and 1x Faeries. After the tourney I beat a BU Isochron Scepter-based control deck with it, though I wish my matchups were more varied. I'm more seriously considering going to 19 land, but I wasn't terribly flooded. Cave-In is great (despite my own previous reservations). I surprised some opponents with fourth-turn kills.

I drew a 5-land hand once and mulled it. I drew a 0-land hand once and mulled it. I was once prevented from winning a game due to my own suicidal cards. I played every Shard Volley I drew with no negative repercussions. I never drew a single PoP in the games where I sided them in. Strangely enough, I never had to side in Shattering Spree (though I should have against the BU control deck, we were playing casually).

[QUOTE=kirbysdl;204120]
my list!" :smile:
QUOTE]

not sure if this is worth posting, but in your analysis, you say that blood moon hurts PoP, but I've heard several times that since blood moon doesn't say basic mountain, it makes them into non-basic mountains and PoP still deals damage for them.

[quote=GiantGrowth;204776]

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Originally Posted by kirbysdl

my list!" :smile:
QUOTE]

not sure if this is worth posting, but in your analysis, you say that blood moon hurts PoP, but I've heard several times that since blood moon doesn't say basic mountain, it makes them into non-basic mountains and PoP still deals damage for them.

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Blood Moon does nothing to Price of Progress, non-basics will still be non-basic Mountains...

[QUOTE=Sacearuse;205298]

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Originally Posted by GiantGrowth

Blood Moon does nothing to Blood Moon, non-basics will still be non-basic Mountains...

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Thanks, I changed it. Is there anyone else using Shard Volleys? I'm gonna try another round of goldfishing today or tomorrow, but others' results are always interesting!

Please forgive the long first post, the final decklist is at the bottom, so you should just skip to that if you don't like reading.

Burn seems pretty viable to me. I think the bauble/street wraith build is completely the way to go also. Why? well, I just don't understand why you would play a 60 card burn deck when you could play a 48 card burn deck.

I'd like feedback on my build, and I'm going to run through choices too.

Draw/Thinning:
The viable choices are as follows
- Street Wraith
- Mishra's Bauble
- Urza's Bauble
- Needle Drop
- Fetchlands

In a build using any of these, I think the 8 Baubles and 4 Wraiths are auto-includes. I'm not sold on needle drop being efficient enough in legacy, and I'm unsure of how many fetches to include. My inclination is to go 4 Wooded Foothills and 4 Mire, but the damage could add up with the wraiths and potential inclusion of flame rift. Also, with fireblast as a auto-include and the potential of shard volley, mountains are pretty hot.

Creatures:
Viable choices
- Grim Lavamancer
- Keldon Marauders
- Mogg Fanatic
- Countryside Crusher

Lavamancer is probably bad because it will bait removal. Countryside Crusher has the same problem, and it probably belongs in a different deck with more acceleration. Also it kind of nerfs fireblast and shard volley.

Mogg Fanatic is not high-impact enough for my liking. In a deck not running the thinning my deck is trying to achieve, they might be viable, but the 1-3 damage they provide for R isn't high impact enough for my liking.

Keldon Marauders is the best include imo because they pretty much guarantee at least 2 dmg, potentially 5, so it will come down to whether or not there is room. This is the only creature I'd run in this deck.

3for1 Burn Spells

- Lightning Bolt
- Chain Lightning
- Lava Spike
- Rift Bolt
- Shard Volley

The first 4, as everyone already knows, are auto-includes. I really like Shard Volley, I think it just needs to be tested. I'm unsure the correct number as they're kind of mediocre to draw in multiples early and I'm obv running 4 fireblast.

Other Burn (I'm not including the vast amount of burn that exists besides these cards. If I'm missing something let me know, but the deck is hard-pressed for space when considering these cards and I don't think anything is viable beyond these.)

- Magma Jet
- Flame Rift
- Fireblast
- Incinerate
- Price of Progress

Through testing, magma jet is invaluable in a build w/o street wraiths and baubles. I don't know how great scry is though with all the card draw in the build I'm going for.

Flame rift is very good. Usually the life loss is manageable for the power of 4 for 2.

Fireblast is an auto-include

Incinerate isn't looking too great with the lack of space we have, I'd run Magma Jet over it.

Price of Progress is pretty meta-dependent. On the whole, it's pretty broken against good decks. That being said, if your meta has a lot of people that play with basic land, it can be dead. I don't like it mained sometimes solely because burn is all about efficiency and having 4x of a dead card game 1 is pretty awful. IMO this definitely belongs as a 4 of, not necessarily mained though

Other stuff
- Scroll Rack
- Schrap Blast + artifact lands if running scroll rack/Ankh
- Ankh of Mishra
- Sulfuric Vortex
- Fork

Scroll rack seems too slow

Schrap Blast is great, but running artifact lands is sketchy and contradicts w/price of progress. I'd be tempted to run it because of 8x bauble if running artifact red land, but I think it is on the whole not consistent enough.

If running SSGs and or Moxen, Ankh is good as a first turn drop with all the fetches in legacy, but our deck isn't, so it's a no-go

Sulfuric Vortex is very good, but the 3cc makes me personally dislike it.

Fork is very good, and up for debate. We'll see if there's space

Removal

- Pyroclasm
- Earthquake/Rolling Earthquake
- Flamebreak

These are all too slow IMO, especially with the inclusion of shard volley



All that being said, here's a list of auto-included cards, I'm shying away from fetches in this:

Speed [12]
4 Street Wraith
4 Urza's Bauble
4 Mishra's Bauble

Burn [20]

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Chain Lightning
4 Rift Bolt
4 Lava Spike
4 Fireblast

Land [16]

2 Barbarian Ring
14 Mountain

total [48]

The 12 remaining slots are difficult. I want to play Shard Volley because it just seems too efficient not to at least test, and I'm going to begin by testing it as a 4-of.

So with 8 Slots left, the main contenders are Magma Jet, Keldon Marauders, Incinerate, Flame Rift, Price of Progress, and Fork

Flame rift is powerful, and I really think it should be a 4-of here, so I'm adding that, leaving 4 slots.

I want to play fork, but a turn that involves fork requires at least 3 mana, and with the shard volleys/fireblast/generally low mana count the deck is running I'm not adding it. Maybe if Shard Volley tests poorly fork could go in as a 2-of.

Magma jet is an auto-include in the bauble-less version of the deck, and I think it honestly is a metagame call between Magma Jet and Price of Progress at this point. In a metagame with a lot of good players who have expensive decks, Price of Progress is one of our most broken additions, and my Meta is like that so I'm going to include it as a 4 -of. That being said I'm definitely testing just how much scry loses in a build like this, magma jet could definitely replace shard volley.

The Final List:

Speed [12]

4 Street Wraith
4 Urza's Bauble
4 Mishra's Bauble

Pain [32]

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Chain Lightning
4 Rift Bolt
4 Lava Spike

4 Flame Rift
4 Price of Progress

4 Fireblast
4 Shard Volley

Land [16]

2 Barbarian Ring
14 Mountain

Total [60]


I'm going to test this hard. I really want to determine Magma Jet's viability in a fast build like this, and find out the optimal number of Shard Volleys to play.(I have a feeling 4 is probably not the right amount, but they're too damn efficient for me to pass up at least testing, knahmean?)

I also just kind of guessed on the land, any input there (and in general) would be appreciated. I feel like some fetches could be nice. 2 Barb ring seems optimal though.

Also, SB advice would be cool. Obv Pyroblast as a 4 of, then some REBs, maybe pyrostatic pillars, I'm not too sure.

@ Mpopo

Welcome to the Source!!

I want you to keep in mind when reading this that I played almost that exact list a couple of months ago, minus the Morningtide. Now while drawing a bunch of free cards is sweet, you will be sealing your fate while doing so. What card does almost every deck play nowdays? If you couldn't guess it's Tarmogoyf and what does goyf love? A bunch of diffrent card types in the yard that what. You sholud ask Nightmare what happened when we he played against my build of this deck...Tell ya what i'll save ya the trouble, on his turn 2 he cast a 5/6 Tarmogoyf, with no cars in his yard!!! Thats right I went cycle Wraith, sac bauble and fetch. Turn 2 I cast a lightning Bolt and Lava Spike...thats Artifact, Creature, Instant sorcery and Land!!! Keep this in mind when testing, I only run the 4 Wraiths and they seem to work just fine, fetch lands are a good way to thin your deck out too...

I was also wondering how you planned on casting spells with this deck? Playing 4 Fireblast, 4 Shard and only 16 will greatly reduce your abality to cast spell the way you need to. Shard Volly really doesn't fit in burn.

just 16 lands with 4 Shard Volley and 4 Fireblast?...I wouldn't run Shard Volley with Fireblast at all anyway...

Alright so I just speed goldfished my list a bunch of times and the flaws became pretty apparent.

The deck dealt lethal burn damage turn 4-5 almost every time. That being said, the damage I was taking from wraith + flame rift + barb ring seemed like it was so much that the deck could have been called suicide red.

Shard volley@ 4 actually seemed better than worse most times, but when it was bad it was BAD, so I'm going to cut them or play them at 2.

Barbarian ring actually seems way less useful in this build than in the build I had without shard volley, baubles and wraiths. I very rarely had to use it to get a win on turn 5 or earlier, usually it was just paying for stuff and dealing me damage.

Flame rift seems really risky in this deck, especially seeing it in multiples, so I'm considering dropping it or running 2.

@ the tarmogoyf comment: you're probably more experienced at playing legacy than me and that's a very valid point, but if I'm on the play and going to win turn 4 most games, making their goyf big doesn't really seem like a huge problem. I like the speed baubles/wraiths add too much to drop them unless they singlehandedly make me auto-lose to turn 2 goyf consistently. I'm going to have to learn the hard way that you're right (which you probably are) by actually losing to goyf a lot to cut the baubles.

I think for right now I'm going to:

-2 shard volley
-2 flame rift

+ 4 Magma Jet

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Originally Posted by Mpopo

@ the tarmogoyf comment: you're probably more experienced at playing legacy than me and that's a very valid point, but if I'm on the play and going to win turn 4 most games, making their goyf big doesn't really seem like a huge problem. I like the speed baubles/wraiths add too much to drop them unless they singlehandedly make me auto-lose to turn 2 goyf consistently. I'm going to have to learn the hard way that you're right (which you probably are) by actually losing to goyf a lot to cut the baubles.

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Ok so your opponent goes turn 2 Goyf and he's a 5/6, that puts you on a 3 to 4 turn clock with all the damage this deck does to its self. Now whats going to happen is yuor opponent will gain some life via Swordsing there own dude or the will counter one of your burn spells in which case you lost to that 5/6 Goyf. I understand what you want to do with this deck, I had the same thoughts, it doesn't work...take this from someone who has been playing burn or Goyf Slight at every event since Feb. off 2006, it's not gonna work...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Mpopo

I think for right now I'm going to:

-2 shard volley
-2 flame rift

+ 4 Magma Jet

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This doesn't seem like a good idea if you're still running 12+ Cyclers. The problem is you'll often Magma Jet into Cyclers, and then what do you do? Magma Jet is very underpowered as far as burn efficiency goes. The point of Magma Jet is to stack your deck, and you can't do that when you don't know what that Bauble *really* is.

It's the same problem with holding just baubles and burn on the draw. At best, it's a Time Walk for the opponent. At worst, you'll end up drawing more burn and giving them several turns. And the kicker? You've no idea which situation you're in until after you can't mulligan anymore.

Anyway, I think I might try my Rw Bauble Burn list with Lightning Helix to counter all the pain.

From Zach Hill at Star City:


"Imagine a hypothetical deck of forty Lightning Bolts and twenty Mountains. If you’re in the midgame and haven’t drawn an abnormal ratio of lands to spells, every draw step effectively counts as two points of damage. Every turn places your opponent, on average, two points closer to dead. If a Countryside Crusher magically materialized on the table, though, all of the sudden every turn yields you three damage instead of two in addition to the threat of the Crusher himself. This is substantial enough of a gain to me to warrant looking twice at. The significant difference is that if instead of building around trying to make the Crusher huge you put him into a fairly standard Red Deck Wins list, you’ve got yourself a tight little card advantage engine. Your opponent has to actually kill the Crusher to stop his inevitability, as opposed to merely finding a way to contain him, and by that point if you’ve milled a single land off the top you’ve gained effective card (and, according to the Philosophy of Fire, damage) advantage."

I dont think he meant run it in Burn, he was just using that 40 Bolt deck to make the point that Crusher will only draw you more business and probably let you win faster (obviously). Also, Extended is generally a slower format so Crusher may be okay in Red Deck Wins but probably not in Legacy Burn.

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I dont think he meant run it in Burn, he was just using that 40 Bolt deck to make the point that Crusher will only draw you more business and probably let you win faster (obviously). Also, Extended is generally a slower format so Crusher may be okay in Red Deck Wins but probably not in Legacy Burn.

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You shouldn't say no without trying him out, imo id rather drop him on turn 3 than a sulfuric vortex