Originally Posted by
apocolyps6
When evaluating the power level of chalice, this is my reasoning.
If the opponent has more than 12 1drops, chalice is insane and always stays in.
If the opponent has 12 or less 1drops then the card is somewhere between medium and mediocre.
Combo lands plays ~12 1drops (crop rot, gamble, exploration). The card is decent but nothing amazing. There is nothing special about the matchup that makes chalice worse, and those 1drops are quite important to their gameplan, so it stays in.
D&T plays 12 1drops (vial, mom, stp). The card is a lottery ticket here. If the opponent gets down a vial before we get down a chalice, they can vial in their moms. Redundant vials don't matter and in that case the only thing it is shutting off is stp. Mom can also be cast off of cavern, which a lot of list are starting to play. If we do get a chalice down, they can simply flicker it to unlock their 1drops (and turn off our moxen). On top of this playing 2 mana non-creatures is hard against D&T because most of their deck punishes us "taking a turn off". I've also had games where I held a game-winning pyroclasm in my hand since turn 1 and never cobbled together enough mana to cast it. I died staring at Thalia, wingmare, 2x port.
Marit Lage is extremely vulnerable in this matchup. They have stp, Karakas, and flickerwisp (11 cards) to punish us for the play. If we sac 2 lands to not win the game, we are probably just losing. They can also have any flier + mom for infinite blocks. Sometimes they don't have any of this, and the matchup is so bad that this last resort Lage "sneak attack" actually buys us some win percentages. That being said, this strategy is just a hail mary and I would not include potential dead draws just to further it.
The way we win this matchup is by doing our best Jund impression and pfiring away their board while keeping decay up for RIP, Absolute Law, etc. Hopefully while also turning a green creature sideways. Our black sideboard cards also make mom much worse.