Printable View
Gobolord...you seem to have done more testing than most people here. Can you show me what you think the "ideal" SB would be for a typical meta? Also, please tell me which decks you would SB those cards in for. Everyone seems to have suh a variety of opinions. I'd like to take your and test them out.
The main thing would probably be to run some 1 of's in the sideboard for Goblin matron targets, like a Tuktuk scrapper / Tin Street Hooligan for opposing artifacts, like Jitte/Batterskull etc, Another Stingscourger for those Show and Tell matchups. I also run 1 Vexing Shusher in the sideboard because I hate blue when playing goblins enough to run it in addition to the Cavern of souls, Goblin Lackey & Aether Vial I also run some Tarfire because they help against some match ups, especially when nuking a Stoneforge Mystic before it can use it's ability to a Batterskull. I also have a Goblin King in the sideboard in addition to 1 maindeck Goblin Chieftain because of the +1/+1 against Engineered plague and the mountain walk might help in some match up's.
After that is probably the 2 most obvious things you want to be able to answer, so run some amount of graveyard hate & anti combo hate, things like Grafdigger's cage (Since it can also be used against opposing Green Sun's Zenith) or Faerie Macabre since you can also Aether Vial it in if you for some reason need that option of a 2/2 Faerie Rogue flyer, Go with Surgical Extraction since it's essentially "free" (2 life) & nets all copies from their deck/hand/graveyard, go with Tormod's crypt since it's actually free, go with Relic of Progenitus since it draws you a card, go with Leyline of the void since it start's in play when in the opening hand, though it also means getting stuck with them as you draw into them. Etc Etc Etc, every anti-graveyard card has it's benefits & drawbacks.
As far as anti combo goes, I am mono red, so I don't have the discard route of things like Duress Thoughtseize etc. So I just use Mindbreak trap.
Feline, have you tried Thorns or Chalice to stop combo?
I am leaning towards Faeries since its free and they cant counter it. Can a well-timed faerie shut down a renaimator or dredge deck? Or do they still have a good chance to stabilize from it? <----I've never used it.
How exactly does Minbreak stop combo? What permanents do you hit with it?
for reference: Mindbreak Trap and Tendrils of AgonyQuote:
Originally Posted by namrufmot
I am unfamiliar with any application for MBT outside of stopping storm combo. This becomes apparent when analysing the card. Storm doesn't win unless multiple spells are played. MBT becomes free as the storm player "goes off". Once the storm player resolves their storm card, you would need a separate counterspell to void each copy. Before Flusterstorm this was not possible. So Wizards made MBT exile any number of spells.
There are 2 factors that prevented MBT from hosing storm like Wizards had hoped it would... First is that it ONLY shuts down storm. Second is that good storm players expect some sort of fight game 2 and will wait to go off after they Duress or Thoughtseize it from your hand.
Constructing a sideboard is an art but as in all of magic, it is subject to a bit of luck. You can do all the research and nail the % of decks in a meta and build your sideboard accordingly and then play rogue decks for the first 3 rounds. You could never draw the hate or mull looking for it into unplayable hands...
Metagames also vary depending on the country you play in (or even the region of the country).
For the sake of discussion, I'll treat your question as though you asked it generally.
Most boards will contain a minimum of 4 graveyard hate. The gy hate is varied and there are arguments for and against all of them.
You will also find 2-4 pieces of additional removal. This is typically Pyrokinesis for Goblin lists. This improves the match-up against other creature based decks.
Next are your silver bullet goblins. Usually 2-3 of these.
That's 8-11 of your 15.
The rest is generally meta and play-style dependent. What decks could you beat if you had a little help or some specific hate? It helps if these cards are broad answers that have application against a wide range of lists.
It is important to realize that you cannot make Goblins > 50% for all match-ups post board. It is generally a wasted effort to do so. Goblins is bad against combo. It's the nature of the deck in the same sense that combo is weak against Force of Will. It just is. If you dedicate 15 cards against storm combo you *might* beat it, but at the risk of losing others matches because you didn't have room to hate them. This is why Chalice of the Void is a good card for Goblins in the board. It hinders RUG which is a DTB and something you will likely face. It also has applications against Burn, Zoo, U/R Delver, Affinity, Belcher, ANT, TES, and other combo decks playing Lotus Petal and Lion's Eye Diamond.
I'm willing to give a maxmium of 5 slots in my SB to graveyard hate. Which combination do you prefer and why?
I've been doing a project as late where I've been compiling the decklists of high-performing Goblin decks into a spreadsheet and averaging out the card counts across the decklists. Today I went and included the two Goblin decks that made Top 8 at Gencon (both from tournaments of ~350 players). When I averaged out their decklists into the other lists (extending back to the release of M13) the averaged decklist looked like this:Quote:
Originally Posted by namrufmot
4 Aether Vial
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Piledriver
3 Mogg War Marshal
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Goblin Warchief
1 Goblin Chieftain
1 Siege-Gang Commander
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
4 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Pyrokinesis
1 Stingscourger
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Tuktuk Scrapper
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Wasteland
2 Rishadan Port
6 Mountain
5 fetchlands
1 Dual land
Sideboard
2 Chalice of the Void
1 Pyroblast
2 Red Elemental Blast
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Faerie Macabre
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Pyrokinesis
1 Stingscourger
1 Gilded Drake
1 Goblin King
So, to answer your sideboard question about 5 pieces of GY hate...
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Faerie Macabre
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Grafdigger's Cage
Aside from being useful against GY recursion decks these pieces also have a number of other applications.
2 Relic of Progenitus - Shrinks Goyf and Mongoose against RUG Delver
1 Faerie Macabre - Removes High Tides in response to Timespiral and rituals in response to Past in Flames without building Storm count
1 Surgical Extraction - Removes Intuition targets
1 Grafdigger's Cage - Shuts down GSZ and Snapcaster
I like how you analyzed the averages of the deck, I do stuff like that and look at stuff like that like crazy. I noticed the rise in Krenko since it has come out so I now run one myself, tonight I played goblins as well and was lucky enough to go 4 - 0 with it, beating out a U/W miracle deck that had some bad luck with looking at their top 3 a billion times and just not getting what they needed, then went against a maverick type deck splashing black for Dark Confidant, then a half Painter's stone half Scepter chant type deck, and then against merfolk in the finals.
Things to note for the night, Rishadan port is still awesome, and Krenko is definitely staying in. Had a game where I could only attack with 2 creatures a turn, but with a Krenko out I just kept making more goblins anyway, in the end I had out over 70 goblins, lol.
It's pretty cool to see the averages of all the top decks, but you have to take it with a grain of salt. Consider for a second the 2 Chalices in the board. I think most lists run 0 or 3-4, averaging out to 2. I'm also not sure about running that many singletons in the main...I think there would be different lists focused on different things, and that all averages out to 1-ofs. Still, props for doing that, it is appreciated.
As for gravehate, I agree that having 2-4 different cards is good. It makes it harder for them to Therapy, and it can provide a more varied attack on their graveyard, making it harder for them to play around.
Ok, to answer your question we first have to clarify what "the typical meta" is.Quote:
Originally Posted by namrufmot
In my oppinion there are 2 "big metas" - the American meta and the European meta. The past has shown that those metas are quite different form each other (it appears to me that Americans tend to run more "netdecked" lists, while Europeans like 'experimental' decklists). So, when talking about "typical meta" you have to know where you live. For the American meta the "DTB" section of this board usually gives a good sketch of what decks you will likely see on tournaments. However, for the first time since I'm into the format the meta of boths regions (America and Europe) seem to quite equal. This means that we have the most diverse meta I've ever seen right now. This important to keep in mind.
Now, why did I give you this lame introduction? I find it important to keep the above mentioned DIVERSITY in mind when it comes to deckbuilding. Someone who usually plays "big" tournaments will likely NOT face the same decks twice on one day. That's the status quo of legacy.
This surely means that there is no such thing as an "ideal sideboard". Your sideboard constructipn should take into account (1) the meta game, (2) your maindeck and (3) your playstyle. So what I write next is not "the truth" or "the best sideboard" or anything close - it's just my (educated) oppinion.
SIDEBOARD:
4 Leyline of the Void
4 Chalice of the Void
2 Sulfuric Vortex
2 Pithing Needle
1 Null Rod
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
Excplanations:
Leyline
No matter how often I though about it or how often I tested other graveyard hate (and believe me, I thought about this A LOT) it always comes down to this: If you can spend 4 slots on graveyard hate, fill them with Leylines, because it's without any doubt the best graveyard hate available. It's as simple as this: If you need graveyard hate it's only because you can't win given MUs without it. If you can't win those MUs without graveyard hate there is no point in running anything other than the best card available. e.g. You don't win against Dredge/Reanimator/Lands/younameit with 4 Faerie Macabres drawn on Turn 5 - you need them on your opening hand. The "mulligan agrument" which is supposed to speak against Leylines is not valid: Goblins is agruably the deck that is least affected by frequent mulligans. There is simply no other legacydeck that has good 5-card-openings - we are the only ones. So, son't be afraid of taking mulligans into hatecards in general when you will otherwise lose the game.
Chalice
This one aims at the DIVERSITY of the metagame. Chalice is a surprising sideboard choice for Goblins and will be unexpected for most players. It is just those 4 cards you have to beat this "DIVERSITY". You will always see an random Burn-player or an random Elves-deck on any tournament. Even Rouge strategies tend to be glue-ed together by cantrips and other cheap spells. There is just no denying it: Chalice is THE perfect sideboard card for Goblins as it does not disrupt our strategy the slightest.
Sulfuric Vortex
This one is a meta-call and I can see it being cut in near future. Right now it's just the perfect card to deal with lifelinking Batterskulls, annnoying board-sweepers (e.g. Terminus) and this occasional Rockdeck (Kitchen Finks, Ooze) and Punishing Fire-engine. Being an enchantment means that it is hard to get rid of. It adds up to our strategy against any control deck as it deals the remaining damage that we couldn't deal with our usual racing-strategy.
Pithing Needle/Null Rod
Needle is another card that credits the DIVERSITY. This card is not just flexible as hell, but it is also the best answer to the decks that run Batterskull and Jitte right now. I have explained elsewhere that “conventional” artifact hate in form of Goblins (Tuktuk, TSH, Tinkerer) are terrible cardchoices if you are aiming at equipments. The two “big” decks that feature equipments are Maverick and Stoneblade. In those MUs Pithing Needle has so many applications – it’s not even funny. As for Null Rod: this one card shuts down each and every card in Stoneblade and UW miracle that is scary: Engineered Explosives, Jitte, Batterskull, Sensei’S Divining Top and Vedalken Shakels.
Sharpshooter
This guy is also awesome against many random strategies (like Elspeth, Bitterblossom, Thopter Foundry) while wrecking havoc on more popular decks (Goblins, Elves, Empty the Warrens). As you can see he is also meant prepare the deck for many unexpected strategies.
Krenko
I’m not decided on this slot yet, but I figured out that basically any creature-based strategy will be crushed by an avalanche of Goblin tokens if they can’t handle Krenko immediately.
So, as you can see, the sideboard I’m currently running is build to fight archetypes and strategies, and is not per se designed to crush specific decks.
With Delver of Secrets beeing near unbeatable and the ridiculously bad Merfolk matchup, I strongly recommend this guy:
http://s.mtgprice.com/sets/Planeshif...oblin.full.jpg
I test those currently as a solid 3-of in the sideboard. Beware the predicter of the future, Slingshot Goblin it is.
about leyline of the void, have anyone actually done the math for finding it either on your opening hand or a mulligan to 6 or a mulligan to 5 or a mulligan to 4?
(I personally wouldn't go below 4... going below 5 is too much risk already)
I'm trying to come up with the numbers... I'll post as soon as I have something solid.
3 LeylinesQuote:
Originally Posted by Cleston
Without Mulligan: 36,89%
Mull 6: 31,33%
Mull 5: 25,88%
Mull 4: 20,52%
4 Leylines
Without Mulligan: 49,18%
Mull 6: 41,78%
Mull 5: 34,50%
Mull 4: 27,36%
So, when mulliganing into it:Quote:
Originally Posted by GoboLord
3 Leylines:
Hand of 7: 36.89% chance of Succes
Hand of 6: 56.66% chance of Succes
Hand of 5: 67.88% chance of Succes
Hand of 4: 74.47% chance of Succes
4 Leylines:
Hand of 7: 49.18% chance of Succes
Hand of 6: 70.41% chance of Succes
Hand of 5: 80.62% chance of Succes
Hand of 4: 85.02% chance of Succes
<3Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the brainwasher
About Leylines, does anyone have any numbers considering that you play 4 Leylines + 2 Serum Powder? I'm not that good at percentages, so if someone could do it, it would be great.
Thanks.
yeah, I came to the same results, except that I went further and did a test for mulligan into 1 as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by BWM
There's a 9,06% probability you will not find it even after mulliganing all the way to one card.
I have the excel file if anyone is interested in making experiments with other cards and combinations as well ;)
There ought to be a Stats thread on the Source where people can get their draw percentages...
I'm fairly certain this is bad math...Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleston
If I flip a coin there is a 50% chance it comes up heads.
If I flip it again there is a 50% chance it comes up heads.
You cannot take those two sentences and then say that there is a 100% chance a coin will flip to heads after two flips...
Similarly you cannot add all of your percentages together to say what chance you have of mulling into Leyline if you go all the way to 1 card. As a proof, Start with a hand of 10 cards. Then do your math. If your percentage says you have over 100% chance of mulling into hate when you go to one then you've just proven your math is bad.
in the coin flip example, the chance of finding a heads in at least one of the two flips would be (1/2) + (1/2*1/2)Quote:
Originally Posted by Ace/Homebrew
and in the leyline example, here was my reasoning:
Leyline / Hand
0,49 in 7
0,42 in 6
0,35 in 5
0,27 in 4
0,20 in 3
0,13 in 2
0,07 in 1
NO Leyline / Hand
0,51 not in 7
0,58 not in 6
0,65 not in 5
0,73 not in 4
0,80 not in 3
0,87 not in 2
0,93 not in 1
Chance / Description
0,49 in 7
0,21 not in 7 AND in 6
0,10 not in 7 AND not in 6 AND in 5
0,05 not in 7 AND not in 6 AND not in 5 AND in 4
0,03 not in 7 AND not in 6 AND not in 5 AND not in 4 AND in 3
0,02 not in 7 AND not in 6 AND not in 5 AND not in 4 AND not in 3 AND in 2
0,01 not in 7 AND not in 6 AND not in 5 AND not in 4 AND not in 3 AND not in 2 AND in 1
0,09 not at all
notice that each AND means a multiplication, the chance for not finding leyline times the chance for finding it on a new hand.
is it clear enough now? I'm fairly convinced of the numbers. For sure after the first event happens (means: mulligan to six) the next events are totally independent, and you should not mulligan believing your chance is actually higher on the next try.
EDIT: it is also interesting to notice that after the mulligan to 4, your chances are 1 out of 5, and add almost nothing to the net result. The chances for finding a leyline until the mulligan to 4 are 0,86, and the chances of finding it all the way up to one card is 0,91.
ehh?!Quote:
Originally Posted by BWM
The where did you get this.
To calculate the probability you need to use a thing called a hypergeometric distribution.
Here is a link of an online calculator
http://stattrek.com/online-calculato...geometric.aspx
Population size - number of cards in deck
Number of successes in population - number of cards that you want to have in your opener
Sample size - number of card you draw
Number of successes in sample - 1
So for a 60 card deck, with 4 cards tha you must draw in your opener you have a probability of succes (1 or more) of 0,399 % percent.
Again, thank you for the well-written insightful answer. Other than Chalice for 1, what would you SB in against combo?Quote:
Originally Posted by GoboLord