Originally Posted by
Gui
Hi there, long time I don't post anything serious, but I want to share something...
I had an idea while reading the remake of Manaless dredge primer. Prepare yourself, wall of text incoming:
The "idea" I'm talking about is using Serum Powder in LED Dredge.
I've checked for previous tests with it on every dredge subforum here in TS, but idea was quickly dismissed. I'm a software developer, and I had to test it in my simulator, and it looks very good. Keep on reading for the result.
Generally, people consider serum to be bad in Legacy because it can't be as strong as it is in Vintage. This was why people never went ahead testing it - they believed that Powder can fetch Bazaar of Baghdad in vintage, and since all they need is BoB on opening hand, Serum is ok. But in legacy, since you don't have 1 card to go for when mulliganing, it makes no sense.
The thing is, you really are not looking for one card in your starter hand in legacy Dredge, but you are indeed looking for a starting seven that is combined, and don't intend to be drawing for your key cards after that. It is, then, a matter of math. the chance of having your combo pieces in your initial hand is calculable.
What you are looking for:
- dredger;
- discard;
- draw spell;
- land
Or, in case you have LED, you can look for:
- dredger
- LED
- Coliseum or Faithless looting
So all you need to do is to calculate the chance of hitting these initial hands; Obviously, this math is awful hard and I don't recommend it. What I can do, tho, is brute-force simulation of opening hands (as in 1000000 hands in a few seconds), and check how many times I got above hands. Actually, I can also simulate mulligans with it, and I can even go down to mulligan to 3. I can even simulate for DDD strategy 50% of the time if I want, although I kept results here without it, since it applies for any version of dredge anyways, and only accounts positively.
Before Looting inception, my LEDless dredge list had the chance of 67% to open a combo hand. It was terrible, but still, dredge lists had 4 Tireless Tribe and 4 Putrid Imp by that time, and combo hands were but a b-plan.
When Looting came, my LEDless dredge list reached 70.7% chance to open a combo hand. Yet, LED dredge surpassed LEDless because it was "much faster", which actually meant it had a higher chance to open a combo hand. But how much was that, which made LEDless list obsolete? Must have been a very high chance gain, right?
LED dredge, Quadlaser list, using Faithless Looting, actually has 76% chance to open a combo hand. 5% increase, and yet, so sensible by players that it became the standard.
Now, back to Serum Powder. I tested it. Implemented its optional mulligan. The result:
List Chance of combo hand
Gui's LEDless: 70.7%
Gui's LEDless powder: 84.0%
Gui's LED list: 74.7%
Gui's LED powder: 86.1%
Quadlaser: 76.3%
Quadlaser powder: 88.3%
Serum Powder actually gives us 12%~14% increase in chances!
What this means is:
70% means you'll miss it once for every 3.33 games you play
76% means you'll miss it once for every 4.1 games you play
88% means you'll miss it once for every 8.33 games you play
I mean... this is twice as much stability to hit the combo than it had without. Missing once out of 3 can mean a round down in score.
Well, this is the math I wanted to share, but here's my suggested list, round and clean, for a very high chance to combo, and still featuring the least winmore DR return target: (86,1% list)
4 therapy
10 rainbow
12 dredger
4 careful
4 looting
4 cephalid
4 LED
4 powder
4 narco
4 bridge
3 Ichorid
2 DR
1 Iona
I believe this to be a really strong list, able to push dredge one tier above where it is right now. I don't really have a way to put it into prove, tourneys and such, so there was no reason for me to post in TS, since it would be a lost battle against flames and nay-sayers. But if you want to give it a try, feel free.
Just don't forget that whatever you take from the list that is part of initial combo hands will hurt its chances to combo, so, avoid stuff like 3DR + 2 target. I much prefer Iona, which closes 90% of the games she comes in anyways, and hurts the deck much less.
I think this is worthy the debate, and some tests. I wanted to share this because I really think it can help improve Dredge.