No one can claim that storm players are good at math.Quote:
Originally Posted by Royce Walter
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No one can claim that storm players are good at math.Quote:
Originally Posted by Royce Walter
An interesting scenario came up in Joe's Miracle stream tonite.
It's Game 3 versus The EPIC Storm. We made a misplay by letting Xantid Swarm resolve, then decided to jump in front of it with Clique and hopefully disrupt on the combo player's Turn 3. He has not made a land drop, and Storm is 1 (Clique).
http://i.imgur.com/uB7AGN2.png
What should the Miracle player take, and why?
Assume that the Sideboard for BWish has no limit, and any Sorcery could be used.
We don't know what card is on top of the deck.
Show your work :)
looks simple, DR - because you're dead with CC 0 on your topQuote:
Originally Posted by Koby
Answered this already in the Miracles Thread. Slosh is spot-on.
Storm side.Quote:
Originally Posted by Koby
No cards taken: go for it. lead with rite of flame> rite of flame( see the flip). wish If resolves. get kill engine( IGG/PiF). d rit. petal. kill engine( recurring second wish.
-loses to CB on one or two
CB player counter the second ritual. if you don't stop that you likely lose on the spot unless the top card is a two. a one in this situation also stops them cold.
Wish taken: one unknown, no redundancy, but they can also draw out to one of the 6 tutors left (6/37) / land
- loses to CB on two. two lines open if CB is 0 or 1: rip 0 cmc mana source(9 lands, 2petals, 3 chrome mox, 4 LED.) and DR(likely beats CB on one) or ritual out ( beats CB on 0)
-petal taken:best card to take is the petal stops line that beats CB on one. hardest line for tendrils player i think. prevents DR from just being cast if another card is taken and a 0 mana source is drawn: 9 lands, 2petals, 3 chrome mox, 4 LED. ( 18/37 outs almost 50%. don't take wish)
-loses to CB on one or two
depends on the left over remains in CB deck. not sure on distribution( helpful form CB player viewpoint, which i presume would know the contents of their deck ;))
I know I wouldn't play CB without knowing my outs by heart
too much ritual redundancy (hope for a one)
taking the petal puts them off the 6 mana required if you have a one( stops the line that has a chance to beat the one on top)
and a two just stops them
edit: was the last ponder a shuffle or a set?
if he is attacking with swarm he is killing you now so presumably has all he needs. the third card down on ponder if set is probably not relevant, but still has the most chances to be a zero mana source to open up the most ways to beat CB.
Why should you take the Petal as a +1 manasource instead of a +2 one especially with an active Counterbalance in a deck playing 22+ 0cc cards?Quote:
Originally Posted by ThomasDowd
don't know. I think taking the second line from them is better when the top card is unknown than relying on the coin flip from counterbalance. can't stop the ritual line unless you hit a one, there are still draws(9 lands+probes, + rituals) that win them the game if you take a ritual through a zero on CB. note: these draws also have a chance to win through a one on CB (+any artifact mana,- probes- rituals)Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Taking petal nukes their zero line and you need a one.
Might be having the luxury of choice but it makes me feel more in control and comfortable about the situation. knowing that i have the means to beat 0 and 1 is convenient (dead to 2 anyway). taking redundant mana such as rituals when if you don't hit a one on CB you are likely dead anyway seems like a waste.
the only cards i wouldn't want are the disruption, mana cantrips, and BW so maybe 15 ish cards? the infernal tutors are still pretty good. can go get another rite or rit depending on what you took.
i think the situation is all in on having a one on top for CB
The point is that they need the "redundant mana" to do anything that matters and still need to beat the blind-flip. Sure they can rip a discard off the top and Ride the Goblins, but you still have the Brainstorm left to find a solution the next turn. The Ritual limits the options to a minimumQuote:
Originally Posted by ThomasDowd
I think I take a burning wish, which would cut him from getting pif and killing me. Assuming of course I don't have a 1 or two on top
Can't "ride the goblins" against us here, we have EE. I would take a Wish since we have FoW for the other one.
You can't counter the Wish played this turn thanks to Xantid. If you bottom down a Wish and they draw a discard like Duress, they can get rid of the EE and smash your face with Goblins until you (hopefully) find a solution with the Brainstorm left.Quote:
Originally Posted by HammafistRoob
If they draw mana off the Clique they can go for Diminishing Returns with even more mana floating than the 3 they already have, unless you have the 1cc topdeck which negates all outs regardless
The Dark Ritual is easily the right card to take.
Things to keep in mind, guys:
1. Miracles cannot cast spells this turn due to the attacking [cards]Xantid Swarm[/card] (Other than the Vendilion Clique that was cast in response to the attack).
2. A Counterbalance reveal of 1 or 2 will shut down the storm player for this turn.
What I want to know is this: Why not cast Brainstorm in response and be able to somewhat control what the top card would be at that point? I think there's a much greater chance of the storm player holding redundancy in his hand than being able to beat a 1 or 2 perma-counter trigger for his turn. Am I mistaken? Placing Counterspell back on top means that I need 1 of 60 cards in my hand (Ad Nauseam) and finding and placing a 1CMC back on top shuts down cantrips/rituals. I think putting a 2CMC blind on top would be a good choice and would most likely burn through several of their rituals and a tutor in one go.
Geez that interface is ugly..
If you BS in response you can't clique and he gets to keep swarm. I like the block, take wish. If you don't take wish, assuming nothing on top to counter anything, he can go, rite RR, rite RRRR, PETAL, wish RR, RETURNS with a petal left and a land drop to make.
There a two wishes. Taking one results into Dim.Ret. with AT LEAST 3 mana float or EtW if he drew into a discard Spell. Taking nothing results into a PIF kill. Taking Ritual results into a Dim.Ret. with a single mana float.Quote:
Originally Posted by Megadeus
To me, the last seems the best from the perspective of Miracles
That was my "less than 1 minute" conclusion as well, but there were a lot of differing opinions about that line of play from the other viewers. (FYI, I was viewing, not playing. The actions taken in the game don't really matter for this decision point.)Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
For consideration:
What card would replace Dark Ritual that could worsen the scenario for Miracles?
Would there be a substantial difference in replacing Dark Ritual with a land (net -1 mana)? With LED (net +1 mana)?
The assumption is neither player knows the top card of the Miracles deck.
- A Zero on top would stop Lotus Petal and a potential LED topdeck, thus shutting off the 3rd source of black. See note below.
- A One on top would stop all the rituals. Thanks for playing. GG.
- A Two on top would stop all the tutors. Thanks for playing. GG.
Assuming Miracles having a Zero on top (since all others are auto-wins), taking the DR would make black mana the choke point and limit the win conditions to EtW. The live re-draws off Clique would then be:
- 3 Gemstone Mine, 2 City of Brass, 1 Underground Sea, 2 fetchlands = 8 lands
- 3 Dark Ritual
- EDIT: 2 Rite of Flame
- 1 Thoughtseize & 2 Cabal Therapy
- 1 Ad Nauseam
- + cantrips -- outside the scope of this analysis. I don't have time to work these scenarios out.
A total of 17 cards in a 47 card deck, or 36.2% live draws. Seems low for TES and high for Miracles to chose this line.
This 36.2% would allow TES to play three (4?) lines:
- Cast discard to muck the EE, then proceed to EtW for (Clique,Petal,RoF,RoF,Discard,BW->EtW,EtW) 14 Goblins, which gives Miracles 2 draw steps to find a sweeper.
- Cast Dark Ritual to win with a PIF line (rituals, BW->PIF, rituals, BW->Tendrils)
- Cast Rite of Flame to win with a PIF line (Mine->RoF(RR),RoF(RRRR),RoF(RRRRRRR), BW->PIF (R),RoF(RRRR), RoF(RRRRRR), RoF(RRRRRRR), BW->Tendrils (RRRRR+USea+Petal) = Strom 10)
- Cast Ad Nauseam with R floating from 19 life
- Would a land help in this case? It only changes the mana from 9 to 8, and prevents BW->Thoughtseize, then BW->EtW
Alternatively, DReturns is still open, but with only a single R left over. TES would need to draw a Dark Ritual and a land to be able to win out of this situation. I'm not sure how good those odds are.
Are there any other lines I'm missing from the TES perspective?
(Bryant's list from the OP is used for consideration, which plays 2 Cabal Therapy and 1 Thoughtseize maindeck. Assume this is G1 too for simplicity.)
If he drew a third Rite of Flame a Past in Flames kill would also be a consideration.Quote:
Originally Posted by Koby
Noted. I'll adjust the post to account for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
I tip my hat for all the work you put into this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Koby
As I mentioned earlier, the chance to have a 0cc card on top is pretty damn high and every 1cc or 2cc on top is a game winner as well. Making black mana the "chokepoint" is ergo a wise decision considering the gamestate and the possible blanks TES might draw.
I would like to second these sentiments.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook