The new Legacy metagame

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Originally Posted by supremePINEAPPLE

You don't know what NWO is.

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I assumed he meant "Newb World Order".
Newb World Order is the blanket term for the major shift in design to push midrange and coddle new players. New World Order was only part of this shift.

It's very easy to confuse the two, because New World Order is an integral part of Newb World Order. It was also the only aspect of Newb World Order that WotC has good enough to name and explicitly publicize. But it was part of a bigger movement.

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Originally Posted by Crimhead

I assumed he meant "Newb World Order".
Newb World Order is the blanket term for the major shift in design to coddle new players. New World Order was only part of this shift.

It's very easy to confuse the two, because New World Order is an integral part of Newb World Order. It was also the only aspect of Newb World Order that WotC has good enough to name and explicitly publicize. But it was part of a bigger movement.

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Remember how early New World Order brought Lightning Bolt, Doom Blade, and Mana Leak into standard? Then Jace happened and teh cuntrolz is two muhc so they came up with a brilliant idea: these spells are too good, make planeswalkers great.

Logic.

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Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual

Basically, the metagame lost 2 or 3 decks, and nothing new will take their place.

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So we can say Miracles is gone, even though UW Snapcaster/Jace will continue to be a thing, what are the other decks?

Do tier 3 pet decks really count as the metagame?

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Originally Posted by lavafrogg

So we can say Miracles is gone, even though UW Snapcaster/Jace will continue to be a thing, what are the other decks?

Do tier 3 pet decks really count as the metagame?

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Cough, Esper Mentor, cough.

Intresting to see that a lot of people have a lot of ideas about which decks gonna dominate the new metagame with convincing arguments in general.

But let's see the problem another way: according to you, which decks are unfavored by the top ban -and therefore the miracles ban- ? To me, except marginal decks like 12post (which also suffer from top ban by the way), there is not any deck turning into something very bad. So, maybe the high variability of answers to the question of the metagame avolution is linked to the pre-existing deck diversity. Maybe everybody is right, and the lack of miracles will be positive for all decks ?

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Originally Posted by twndomn

Cough, Esper Mentor, cough.

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Wooooweee another midrange deck ResidentSleeper

Wait, the metagame is gonna change, except than Miracle is out now ?

Does really people expect to see any new garbage tier 2-3 decks rise and shine ?

Nope. It will just be a break for everyone until DrS ban.

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Originally Posted by Nestalim

Wait, the metagame is gonna change, except than Miracle is out now ?

Does really people expect to see any new garbage tier 2-3 decks rise and shine ?

Nope. It will just be a break for everyone until DrS ban.

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Wow you really backed that point up with a lot of evidence and solid reasoning.

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Originally Posted by supremePINEAPPLE

Wow you really backed that point up with a lot of evidence and solid reasoning.

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I saw his Nobel-worthy literary skills, and I felt let down when the substance and argumentation did not equal the heights of the writing.

At least every non-Miracles related thread to get posted in the Format and Article Discussion forum won't devolve into Miracles-bashing threads anymore. Only so many of those arguments one can read before the eyes bleed.

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Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual

Wooooweee another midrange deck ResidentSleeper

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Rick and Morty are suddenly in my head for some reason.

I have no clue what happens now, I am interested to see though. I think control is seceded to Lands in the short term, with Blade possiblely making a come back. I feel like Landstill is likely not going to. The deck is weak to a Delver or a Vial, two common opening plays.

My personal interest is in decks like Aluren and Food Chain. These two were making a decent, not fantastic but decent, showing of late. With Elves likely on the rise, can one really hope to play a deck like Aluren without Recruiters hoping to midrange value out your opponents while digging for your combo?

Also Elves, dear God Elves. Welcome back to the DTB section. But the deck is not unbeatable. It is strong, and better now than any time in recent history, but its not a deck without weaknesses of its own.

This meta, it's going to be interesting for a while. I am going to enjoy the DTB updates over the next few months.

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Originally Posted by supremePINEAPPLE

Wow you really backed that point up with a lot of evidence and solid reasoning.

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It doesn't need to, it's logical comprehension. If you're lacking that, you should stay at your place, on the 0-3 round table.

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Originally Posted by Nestalim

It doesn't need to, it's logical comprehension. If you're lacking that, you should stay at your place, on the 0-3 round table.

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That's your home now, too.

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Originally Posted by LOLWut

That's your home now, too.

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For that, I'll need to go to any tournaments. Beside the fact that Legacy was decaying pretty fast and it was a rare thing, this announcement will drop even more the attendancy.

While I will enjoy my salt, enjoy your 8-men <3

Kitchen table master 3000 strikes again.

Elves will obviously gain metagame share.

I do wonder where this is going to put Burn, though. With Counterbalance out of the picture, everybody playing BUG clusterfuck manabases being ideal PoP targets and Harsh Mentor being the new hotness (take that, fetches & DRS!), it should be significantly better in the new metagame.

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Originally Posted by Barook

Elves will obviously gain metagame share.

I do wonder where this is going to put Burn, though. With Counterbalance out of the picture, everybody playing BUG clusterfuck manabases being ideal PoP targets and Harsh Mentor being the new hotness (take that, fetches & DRS!), it should be significantly better in the new metagame.

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I had similar thoughts. Burn loses to combo decks though, and combo is probably going to rise up.

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Originally Posted by Barook

Elves will obviously gain metagame share.

I do wonder where this is going to put Burn, though. With Counterbalance out of the picture, everybody playing BUG clusterfuck manabases being ideal PoP targets and Harsh Mentor being the new hotness (take that, fetches & DRS!), it should be significantly better in the new metagame.

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This has been my point. We're gonna start with Elves, which will also bring out Storm[TES]/Reanimator/Dredge I think; so that the combos can race. This will prompt a rise in, I think.. RUG Delver again, because it'll have the speed to contend again.

At the same time, Burn can get free wins on the devolved "I run nothing but duals and Fetches and tri-color dudes" manabases; and we could well see burns in the top 8.

Expect to see S&T on the rise in a couple months as a way to deal with the Combo-Menace I think.


EDIT: Even if it turns out to be grixis delver, I would expect some Red in the mix; since Rebs will be important for the counter-battles that are coming up. I also anticipate we may see a Jund come back due to it's game against fellow mid-range decks and D&T. If it dodges enough combo or gets lucky, it will be back on the charts.

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Originally Posted by Nestalim

For that, I'll need to go to any tournaments. Beside the fact that Legacy was decaying pretty fast and it was a rare thing, this announcement will drop even more the attendancy.

While I will enjoy my salt, enjoy your 8-men <3

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Please don't go, I want you to keep posting.

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Originally Posted by tescrin

This has been my point. We're gonna start with Elves, which will also bring out Storm[TES]/Reanimator/Dredge I think; so that the combos can race. This will prompt a rise in, I think.. RUG Delver again, because it'll have the speed to contend again.

At the same time, Burn can get free wins on the devolved "I run nothing but duals and Fetches and tri-color dudes" manabases; and we could well see burns in the top 8.

Expect to see S&T on the rise in a couple months as a way to deal with the Combo-Menace I think.


EDIT: Even if it turns out to be grixis delver, I would expect some Red in the mix; since Rebs will be important for the counter-battles that are coming up. I also anticipate we may see a Jund come back due to it's game against fellow mid-range decks and D&T. If it dodges enough combo or gets lucky, it will be back on the charts.

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And then it all comes full circle again of a healthy shifting meta.
Elves gets good. That makes combo good. That then makes delver good. Which makes midrange good. Which then comes full circle and elves beats that.

If you're not here to discuss the potential Legacy environment, don't post. Flames, insults, and spam will not be tolerated any further. Consider this an open warning.

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Originally Posted by Barook

Elves will obviously gain metagame share.

I do wonder where this is going to put Burn, though. With Counterbalance out of the picture, everybody playing BUG clusterfuck manabases being ideal PoP targets and Harsh Mentor being the new hotness (take that, fetches & DRS!), it should be significantly better in the new metagame.

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Burn is good vs Elves too.

I expect Burn to become tier-one quality - if we can only find (quality) willing pilots!

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Originally Posted by Crimhead

Burn is good vs Elves too.

I expect Burn to become tier-one quality - if we can only find (quality) willing pilots!

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I think Burn has been excellently positioned, well before the announcement today. The shift to grindy midrange, especially with atrocious manabases like 4c Czech Pile, is prime for aggressive red strategies. With Burn now able to trim the clunk (Exquisite Firecraft), it's going to be even better positioned to crush the current metagame, until it shifts.

Counterbalance being dead means a few things:

- Chalice is your premiere lock card, and it doesn't see play in Brainstorm decks. Decks like Eldrazi and Loam get marginally better but still suffer from consistency issues that will keep them from going the distance in big tournaments.

- As others have noted, the most logical deck to build toward for Miracles players is some sort of Stoneblade or Mentor build. These will see a bump, but the lack of Counterbalance to give you long-term control means durdling isn't that rewarding. If you don't have some kind of clock, you will get ground out eventually, so you have to be more aggressive.

- Control players are sad, as no true control deck exists or can exist anymore. The format is not unlike Modern now, where midrange is your best bet for playing a longer game because you have more tools to be proactive, and being proactive shortens the game and means you lose to random shit less often. Counterbalance saved people's asses from a lot of "I'll sculpt a perfect hand and then kill you through Force" gameplay, and there's no equivalent now.

- Aggro gets mildly better, but not really. Midrange will still choke the life out of it, so pure aggro decks like Affinity, Zoo, or Sligh are still kind of garbo. UR Delver is probably the most aggressive you can safely get without being Just Dead to a significant chunk of the format.

- Combo is back! Decks like Storm that were too difficult / draining to pilot through a sea of Counterbalances and counterspells get better because now the raw density of disruption goes down. I expect more Storm to show up at top tables.

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Originally Posted by Aggro_zombies

Counterbalance being dead means a few things:

- Chalice is your premiere lock card, and it doesn't see play in Brainstorm decks. Decks like Eldrazi and Loam get marginally better but still suffer from consistency issues that will keep them from going the distance in big tournaments.

- As others have noted, the most logical deck to build toward for Miracles players is some sort of Stoneblade or Mentor build. These will see a bump, but the lack of Counterbalance to give you long-term control means durdling isn't that rewarding. If you don't have some kind of clock, you will get ground out eventually, so you have to be more aggressive.

- Control players are sad, as no true control deck exists or can exist anymore. The format is not unlike Modern now, where midrange is your best bet for playing a longer game because you have more tools to be proactive, and being proactive shortens the game and means you lose to random shit less often. Counterbalance saved people's asses from a lot of "I'll sculpt a perfect hand and then kill you through Force" gameplay, and there's no equivalent now.

- Aggro gets mildly better, but not really. Midrange will still choke the life out of it, so pure aggro decks like Affinity, Zoo, or Sligh are still kind of garbo. UR Delver is probably the most aggressive you can safely get without being Just Dead to a significant chunk of the format.

- Combo is back! Decks like Storm that were too difficult / draining to pilot through a sea of Counterbalances and counterspells get better because now the raw density of disruption goes down. I expect more Storm to show up at top tables.

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Sligh crushes midrange. It's hardest matchups are Br Reanimator and Turbo Depths, with ANT/TES slightly worse than 50/50 and Delver being slightly better than 50/50. Everything else is a pretty good matchup.

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Originally Posted by Aggro_zombies

Counterbalance being dead means a few things:

- Chalice is your premiere lock card, and it doesn't see play in Brainstorm decks. Decks like Eldrazi and Loam get marginally better but still suffer from consistency issues that will keep them from going the distance in big tournaments.

- As others have noted, the most logical deck to build toward for Miracles players is some sort of Stoneblade or Mentor build. These will see a bump, but the lack of Counterbalance to give you long-term control means durdling isn't that rewarding. If you don't have some kind of clock, you will get ground out eventually, so you have to be more aggressive.

- Control players are sad, as no true control deck exists or can exist anymore. The format is not unlike Modern now, where midrange is your best bet for playing a longer game because you have more tools to be proactive, and being proactive shortens the game and means you lose to random shit less often. Counterbalance saved people's asses from a lot of "I'll sculpt a perfect hand and then kill you through Force" gameplay, and there's no equivalent now.

- Aggro gets mildly better, but not really. Midrange will still choke the life out of it, so pure aggro decks like Affinity, Zoo, or Sligh are still kind of garbo. UR Delver is probably the most aggressive you can safely get without being Just Dead to a significant chunk of the format.

- Combo is back! Decks like Storm that were too difficult / draining to pilot through a sea of Counterbalances and counterspells get better because now the raw density of disruption goes down. I expect more Storm to show up at top tables.

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+1 to all of the above except for the last point. Whitefaces will disagree all day without providing any supporting argument, but while CB was difficult for Storm decks to fight through, it's not like it was impossible to beat. Of course when games go long Storm is going to lose; that's how the deck works. I've been killed by ANT through an on-curve 2 CB as often as I've blind flipped just what I needed to in order to counter their go-spell.

I will say that Miracles definitely punched Storm in the gut, but the card that I contend actually killed the deck is Leovold. Being able to draw 10+ cards during the ANT player's go-turn means that you can pretty much find any answer that you need. Now, if decks start playing ETW as the payoff instead, that will change. But look at it this way:

• With Miracles in the format, Storm was effectively forced into going to Tendrils every time since ETW was less effective
• With Miracles and Leovold in the format, neither of Storm's finishers would get the job done since Tendrils now could be Mindbreak Trapped or Flusterstormed away after the opponent drew half their deck. AND the Storm player now could no longer cantrip to set up their go-turn
• With Miracles out of the format, Storm will be looking towards ETW as the main finisher as Leovold remains present, but the issue of Leovold preventing them from sculpting their hand remains

I don't think see Storm's numbers going up as much as you're anticipating.

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Originally Posted by Aggro_zombies

Counterbalance being dead means a few things:

Chalice is your premiere lock card...

...Control players are sad, as no true control deck exists or can exist anymore. The format is not unlike Modern now, where midrange is your best bet for playing a longer game because you have more tools to be proactive, and being proactive shortens the game and means you lose to random shit less often. Counterbalance saved people's asses from a lot of "I'll sculpt a perfect hand and then kill you through Force" gameplay, and there's no equivalent now.

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Maybe Tezz will rise?

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Originally Posted by Hanni

Sligh crushes midrange. It's hardest matchups are Br Reanimator and Turbo Depths, with ANT/TES slightly worse than 50/50 and Delver being slightly better than 50/50. Everything else is a pretty good matchup.

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Originally Posted by Hanni

I think Burn has been excellently positioned, well before the announcement today. The shift to grindy midrange, especially with atrocious manabases like 4c Czech Pile, is prime for aggressive red strategies. With Burn now able to trim the clunk (Exquisite Firecraft), it's going to be even better positioned to crush the current metagame, until it shifts.

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If we get (and keep) a tier-one aggro deck in the form of Burn or Sligh, that's almost worth trading our only hard (permission) control deck.

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Originally Posted by Crimhead

Burn is good vs Elves too.

I expect Burn to become tier-one quality - if we can only find (quality) willing pilots!

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I'm a pretty quality pilot, I don't play on MTGO though, or at big events.

I could see a properly built Burn list hitting T1, it's going to involve a lot of metagaming though in figuring out the opposing decks.

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Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual

+1 to all of the above except for the last point. Whitefaces will disagree all day without providing any supporting argument, but while CB was difficult for Storm decks to fight through, it's not like it was impossible to beat. Of course when games go long Storm is going to lose; that's how the deck works. I've been killed by ANT through an on-curve 2 CB as often as I've blind flipped just what I needed to in order to counter their go-spell.

I will say that Miracles definitely punched Storm in the gut, but the card that I contend actually killed the deck is Leovold. Being able to draw 10+ cards during the ANT player's go-turn means that you can pretty much find any answer that you need. Now, if decks start playing ETW as the payoff instead, that will change. But look at it this way:

• With Miracles in the format, Storm was effectively forced into going to Tendrils every time since ETW was less effective
• With Miracles and Leovold in the format, neither of Storm's finishers would get the job done since Tendrils now could be Mindbreak Trapped or Flusterstormed away after the opponent drew half their deck. AND the Storm player now could no longer cantrip to set up their go-turn
• With Miracles out of the format, Storm will be looking towards ETW as the main finisher as Leovold remains present, but the issue of Leovold preventing them from sculpting their hand remains

I don't think see Storm's numbers going up as much as you're anticipating.

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It's not that Counterbalance was difficult to fight through, it's that it's mentally taxing to do it round after round after round. Fatigue is a real thing, and it's way more likely to happen when you're playing a deck with a large number of decision trees into matchups where every decision matters and your opponent is constantly threatening to just mise you with cards like Entreat. Why play a deck that requires perfect or near-perfect play all day when you can play a deck with slightly less theoretical power that forgives mistakes much more readily, like Delver?

Leovold is powerful, certainly. We'll see how much he shows up going forward. If the format has a much higher percentage of Lightning Bolts than it does currently, I suspect TNN will be the more attractive three-drop, and that's better for Storm.

By the way, when's the next big Legacy tourney? I'm super intrigued to see top 8s.

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Originally Posted by Scott

By the way, when's the next big Legacy tourney? I'm super intrigued to see top 8s.

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I would highly recommend watching the Legacy Premier League on Thursday at 5:pm EST. Check out http://itsjulian.com/ for details, decklists and coverage archives.

Small-efficient-creature aggro (i.e., Zoo) will not come back no matter how much people wish for it. Kird Ape is invalidated by far too many things in the format nowadays. Legacy for the foreseeable future is a BUG versus combo world with everything else second tier or lower, until later this year when Deathrite Shaman gets banned. After that, anybody's guess.

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Originally Posted by Crimhead

Maybe Tezz will rise?

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Shhhhhh... Don't tell anyone...

But seriously, the matchup against Miracles was fun, but slightly favored in Tezz's side. I think it gains a bit if the super fast, low to the ground aggro comes back in force. Chalice is a WONDERFUL card against UR/RUG variants. The dirty thing to keep in mind is that we keep Bridges, but there are likely less MD Decays elsewhere.

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Originally Posted by ubernostrum

Small-efficient-creature aggro (i.e., Zoo) will not come back no matter how much people wish for it. Kird Ape is invalidated by far too many things in the format nowadays. Legacy for the foreseeable future is a BUG versus combo world with everything else second tier or lower, until later this year when Deathrite Shaman gets banned. After that, anybody's guess.

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Utter fearmongering and oversimplification. Do come back in a year to confirm your prediction.

Zoo is dead forever, and Merfolk & Affinity likely didn't get much help.

Burn on the other hand was awfully good already, just lost a very bad match-up, and is getting a new toy. That deck might just get the push it needs.

I think the level 0 read of 'Storm and Elves get better' is spot on. I actually think Burn gets marginally worse since Miracles was a pretty good matchup (once Surgical almost completely displaced Rest in Peace) and the combo decks that will take up some of that meta share are tougher for it than Miracles was. It's still well-positioned and I'll probably play it sometimes, though it still has stigma issues that will keep its meta share lower than it should be.

A more interesting question is what becomes of Eldrazi. I have no idea how good Elves is against it, but if enough Storm shows up it stands to reason that Thought-Knot Seer will be there to pick up the slack. That being said, Eldrazi's​ matchup against BUG of any kind is pretty ugly, so if Leovold decks become the things to beat (which I'm somewhat skeptical about), I don't think Eldrazi will be able to rationalize its existence over something like Blood Moon Stompy.

I'm fascinated to know what becomes of Control. I don't think there's likely to be a tier 1 Blade Control deck in the equilibrium metagame; the BUG vs. Blade matchup was always pretty heavily weighted toward the BUG side, to the point where I felt favored with Hymn/Liliana BUG Delver against basically all of the Blade decks pre-Treasure Cruise. Mentor and Spell Queller provide those decks additional angles of attack, but we're firmly in Midrange territory at that point. I like Landstill's position if Shardless doesn't come back, since Standstill costs 2 to Leovold's 3 (and is potentially even playable in the same decks).

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Originally Posted by TheManWithaPlan

I would highly recommend watching the Legacy Premier League on Thursday at 5:pm EST. Check out http://itsjulian.com/ for details, decklists and coverage archives.

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Will definitely be tuning in.

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Originally Posted by btm10

I'm fascinated to know what becomes of Control.

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Savvy Miracles Pilots are trading their Tundras for The Tabdrnacle At Pendrell Vale. :wink:

I don't think storm cares a lot about Leo, it's just another hatebear. I would still be much more afraid of Thalia between the two. It will be nice to not have to sideboard 8-9 cards for a single MU though. Also agree with whoever said the Level 0 prediction of storm and elves coming back. I'll take this one step further and call generic creature decks coming back as well. Maverick isn't nearly as "fair" a deck as people make it out to be.

I'm also intrigued to see if another tier 1 hard control list can emerge. I'm seeing people talk about things like a revamped Miracles/UW Control, Lands, U/B Tezz, and Landstill variants of UBGx & UWx colors.

I haven't seen it mentioned, but another cool one would be a Landstill deck in URx colors like this with things like Stifle and Fiery Confluence. No idea how good it is.