[Official] Bitching About Prices, Buyouts and Reprints Thread

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Originally Posted by Dan Turner

Had an interesting discussion at our kitchen table game last night.

How much damage could a single person and $100k do to the magic card market?

I was thinking with the right buy and sell policy a person could maybe double their original investment once per year by manipulating card prices.

A large part of the discussion is I have a friend who is a commodities trader and very good at it, and she was saying that most of what players do with cards based investments/market manipulation would be multiple years of prison time on the commodities market.

She went on to say that with cards the behavior is not only completely legal but with the short run of older stuff could be very profitable to say buy 2000 zendikar fetch lands at avg. $50 each make the price spike by $10 each and flip for a $20k profit.

i went a step further and suggested a mix of legacy staples as a portfolio. Duals, fetches fow led etc. Stuff that if it started disappearing in the market place would cause a panic buy.

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If I had an investment portfolio of $100K+ in free capital (unattached to other investments, sitting in a bank account) I would bet I could easily double it in the Magic card market within a year. If you have any sort of sense of what is really going on in the #mtgfinance market (aka a handful of people saying things, and then lots of people on Twitter, Reddit, and Facebook lapping up every word and trying to make a buck on the speculative rise of something once it starts moving), backed with a large amount of capital, it should be very easy to reap massive rewards, not even taking into account true market manipulation and attempting to "corner the market" on specific items. The problem is not many people have that much liquid capital sitting around they can use. I really hate most 'finance' articles, but I should probably write one on this very subject, because most people (even many 'speculators' themselves) don't realize how the trajectory of these economics really works.

I know that you seem to have a lot of experience with #mtgfinance but if things are basically as easy as you make them sound, you should have no problem finding the desired 100k$ in venture capital if you promise such an outstanding ROI.

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Originally Posted by Julian23

I know that you seem to have a lot of experience with #mtgfinance but if things are basically as easy as you make them sound, you should have no problem finding the desired 100k$ in venture capital if you promise such an outstanding ROI.

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There's a small trouble.
While we all (kinda) know how the MtG market (kinda) works, and have a proper mental image in front of our inner eyes, it doesn't transpose into a business model/project that easily. No bank/w-e will lend you 100k dollars to play childrens pictorial game, but come with a solid study on MtG economics, and they'll run to the safe before you'll ask for the precise sum.

Maybe.

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Originally Posted by Bed Decks Palyer

There's a small trouble.
While we all (kinda) know how the MtG market (kinda) works, and have a proper mental image in front of our inner eyes, it doesn't transpose into a business model/project that easily. No bank/w-e will lend you 100k dollars to play childrens pictorial game, but come with a solid study on MtG economics, and they'll run to the safe before you'll ask for the precise sum.

Maybe.

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I didn't really have banks in my when I spoke of venture capital. I doubt any real bank would actually hand out credits for the sole purpose of speculation to someone who's otherwise lacking financial credibility.
I was more thinking of people that are looking for a new and different investment.

Anyways, what I'm trying to say is, if it was as easy as people sometimes make it sound, it should probably be done.

Another small issue - it is easy to buy hundreds copies of a card, but it is not that easy to sell hundreds copies... maybe to a shop, but than you are making much lower profit.

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Originally Posted by humppa

Another small issue - it is easy to buy hundreds copies of a card, but it is not that easy to sell hundreds copies... maybe to a shop, but than you are making much lower profit.

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I wouldn't call that a small issue.

I'd say it depends on how you want to invest - RL cards are somewhat save since you don't run into the danger of reprints anytime soon. However, the higher the price, the lower the ROI is going to be. And let's not forget that, depending on your country, once you reach a certain threshold, you'll have to pay taxes as well.

Low value cards have might wield a better ROI, but are harder to move in bulks and if they aren't on the RL, reprints are a danger.

There are already hedge funds investing in rare coins and vintage cars, why not a mtg fund? Aside from the compliance costs, I don't think that much capital would be required.

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Originally Posted by Julian23

I didn't really have banks in my when I spoke of venture capital. I doubt any real bank would actually hand out credits for the sole purpose of speculation to someone who's otherwise lacking financial credibility.
I was more thinking of people that are looking for a new and different investment.

Anyways, what I'm trying to say is, if it was as easy as people sometimes make it sound, it should probably be done.

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I would say that it already is being done. Unlike other markets, the value of singles that one would invest in really only go up unless a) A better version is printed or b) it becomes banned from an eternal format. It doesnt take much cards that will make gains. Or you could just straight up manipulate prices of rarer cards. Recall that one guy that bought a large number (like stacks) of each guru land except plains as an investment before they were even 30$ a piece. I wouldnt be surprised if the same thing is done with things like foil Japanese/ korean cards.

Today I stopped at my LGS and looked in the display case. I see a NM City of Traitors that was sitting there a week ago. A week ago, the price on this card was $49.99, and in the dim light I thought the new price had been marked at "69.99". So I casually remark, "wow, this went up fast in price! a week ago it was $20 less!". The shop owner looks confused, and starts to ask me if it went up in price recently or not. Then I squint and realize that the price tag still said "49.99". But before I can say anything else, shop-owner is at his computer, bringing up TCGPlayer.com, and then rushes to the display case, grabs the card, and affixes a new sticker to the card that reads "75.99".

Yeah.

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Originally Posted by ryan1989

There are already hedge funds investing in rare coins and vintage cars, why not a mtg fund? Aside from the compliance costs, I don't think that much capital would be required.

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Yeah that's what I immediately thought when reading the couple of posts above. It's definitely possible for a group to pool together more than $100K USD to group-invest, commodities-style. There's probably a system that can be worked out.

*twiddles fingers in pensive thought*

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Originally Posted by Plague Sliver

Yeah that's what I immediately thought when reading the couple of posts above. It's definitely possible for a group to pool together more than $100K USD to group-invest, commodities-style. There's probably a system that can be worked out.

*twiddles fingers in pensive thought*

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Q: "Would you group-invest commodities-style with an average Magic player?"
A: "No, I wouldn't group-invest commodities-style with an average Magic player. 90 % of these people are not trustworthy and I wouldn't let them walk my dog, they'd return it played."

I only do work with people with BSG 9.5 graded dogs anyway.

Its simple. 100k -> beta volcanic island. Which is Bout 100. Its like 5% of market in none were destroyed

Just looked at my collection's mid-TCG value and I'm just astounded at how much these pieces of cardboard are worth. I'm honestly contemplating selling off a vast portion of my collection and just keep 1-2 Legacy decks and 1-2 Modern decks and call it a day. $17k+ is serious money and I'm looking to buy a house in the next 2 years...

If you are really serious, hold off until you need the money. Card prices only go up these days

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Originally Posted by Megadeus

If you are really serious, hold off until you need the money. Card prices only go up these days

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That's what I'm thinking. When I find a house that I want to put money down on, I'll need to sell off my collection. I can piece it out on ebay, but is there a better method that will get me as close to mid-TCG returns as possible?

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Originally Posted by Plague Sliver

Yeah that's what I immediately thought when reading the couple of posts above. It's definitely possible for a group to pool together more than $100K USD to group-invest, commodities-style. There's probably a system that can be worked out.

*twiddles fingers in pensive thought*

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It's definitely doable.

My extra money is tied up in my business right now, but if it wasn't, I'd be doing something like that. Unregulated market, so no legal repercussions about doing things that would get you fined and in jail if it were stocks.

And there's an easy supply of people foolish enough to buy into hype.

It's perfect; unfortunately, I don't have the cash right now.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

That's what I'm thinking. When I find a house that I want to put money down on, I'll need to sell off my collection. I can piece it out on ebay, but is there a better method that will get me as close to mid-TCG returns as possible?

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Not sure. I will admit to not being the savvy trader/seller that some are. My plan would consist of turning my whole collection into RL staples, then selling

Yeah the whole problem moving MTG cards (really anything that's not stock) is the faster you need to dump it, the more of a loss you're likely going to take.

As others have suggested, I'd hold onto cards (especially staples) until you really need to get rid of them. Legacy / Modern staples are especially fluid, so I wouldn't see you having too much difficulty moving them at market value.

The transaction costs and risks are not worth investing real money in cards. Sure, a few thousand is fun, but not 6 figures. The reasons are pretty obvious.

You give up at least 10% in transaction costs right away
You have counterfeit risk (both the risk of getting counterfeit cards and the risk of counterfeits flooding the market)
Risk of getting ripped
The bubble bursts risk (Like what happened to Baseball cards, comic books, an beenie babies, among others)
Inability to move product risk (or haircut your gains if you move to much too fast)
Reprint risk (It is still there)
Power creep risk
Metagame shifts
Ban hammer risks/format support issues (what if legacy is no longer supported)
Mtg looses a lot of popularity risk

You are free to make your own choices, but sinking a fair chunk of a healthy retirement simply for the purpose of financial gain seems foolish to me. It is always easy to look back in time at what did well (like dual lands) and act like it is easy. It is far more difficult to judge what will be tomorrow's big thing. Which of the following strategies is stronger?

You could jump on duals because everyone states with certainty that they are safe.
Buy Modern staples based on the assumption that they won't be reprinted enough to reduce prices.
Jump on vintage cards, vintage decks used to be way more expensive than legacy, perhaps we will see Vintage rise again like when Starcitygames had power 9 tournaments a few short years ago.
Invest in PSA graded 9/10 cards from Unlimited and early expansions. The print runs were tiny and the cards were almost always played because no one understood the fundamentals we all take for granted today?

Again, it is your choice. I would rather buy dividend stocks and sell covered calls on them than any of the above options.

Peace