Originally Posted by
Scatterbrain
From my testing I have a higher win rate with an opener with multiple counters without much pressure vs. a hand with only guys. Most of the time they cannot beat a triple lord draw, but nobody really can, so it isn't really relavant.
Dropping Cursecatcher would be better if you have a good way to be using your first turn other than Vial - since Merfolk depends so much on tempo to win games, you really need to be advancing the game somehow, even if it is just Brainstorming, or leaving a mana up to Stifle.
The reason I would Force the Heirarch is much larger than just powering up your Daze. (Assume we are talking about U/G survival)
Assume the situation of them playing Heirarch turn 1, and they have Survival. When Survival comes online, they need to activate it 6 total times to get 4 Vines and put them into play, then again if they want them to fly. Until they get to 6 - nothing they do is very relavant. Using Force on the Heirarch will mean that they will idealiy have Survival turn 3 with one mana up (1 total activation), then three more activations the next turn (4 total activations), then will finally get the Vines into play on turn 5. They can then beat for 16 or so. This means that they will definately NOT win until turn 6, assuming you do not disrupt them in any way after the Force.
Now, take the situation of them resolving the Heirarch and having Survival. Turn 2 will be a Survival - which you will Force, and they will probably Force/Pierce/Daze you back (or else they would be playing Goyf/Mongrel). The next turn gets them 3-4 activations, then they hit for 16 on turn 4, win turn 5.
Forcing the Heirarch in this case buys an entire turn, and with Merfolk that turn just happens to be the one you need to kill them if you have a Lord of Atlantis + 2 creatures draw. It also sets you up to fight them a LOT better if they don't have the Survival.