http://theepicstorm.com/matchup-mulligan-grixis-delver/
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Do not feed trolls, report them.
In other news, ban Rite of Flame.
New article up (http://theepicstorm.com/looking-glass-elves-vs-storm/) where we sit down with Julian Knab to talk Elves. This is the first in what will be an irregular series where we approach the deck from the other side of the table, sitting down with experts in other archetypes and picking their brain on how they approach the matchup. Very special thanks to Julian for his excellent insight!
Eternal Weekend Report - 23rd Place!
http://theepicstorm.com/eternal-week...17-23rd-place/
Couple questions from a new TES player.
The list on the site had cut the Bayou and Decays last month, but Bryant showed up with them for EW and for the Open this weekend and I would like to know what influenced that decision and what the best Decay targets are? If it's purely a meta decision I would like to know what decks the Decays are best against, because initially I was pleased to cut the Bayou, I don't really want that in my sideboard.
I'm also really curious about the raw number of Empty the Warrens that are in the SB now. I understand that these are no longer Wish targets and are coming in to make sideboard games where Goblins are good win cons easier to do without tutoring for the card? I don't understand how ending up with multiple Empties can ever be good though, after we've blown our hand on going off once I have to assume no game really goes long enough to Empty again.
I thought Bryant ran the pure Grixis website list for EW. As for the multiple Empties, having empty in hand reduces the mana cost required to make goblins while simultaneously insulating you from Force of Will. This is good in Delver matchups due to the fact that it helps against soft permission, hard permission (force), and the fact that low amounts of goblins are usually enough to kill a delver deck since they don't normally have sweepers. This is why two extra copies are sided in vs Delver decks.Quote:
Originally Posted by ashent
@Bayou & Decays
Its the way of the least resistance if you otherwise would have to gamble on if UWx (Miracles) boards in Counterbalances or Canonists. The list of cards available to cover both without splashing green is short
@Multiple EtW
The two core ideas are to have 4 mana playlines and reestablish pressure in case your green team gets wiped
Thoughts & changes after the last few weeks: http://theepicstorm.com/deck-list-up...weekend-scgdc/
Latest Matchup Mulligan - Sneak & Show.
http://theepicstorm.com/matchup-mulligan-sneak-show/
Interesting read, there's no shame in returning to the older manabase and Abrupt Decay - Counterbalance/Soothsaying unfortunately made that inevitable. As some one who pushed the Goblins plan as hard as he could, I don't think the Goblins plan is worth the SB space because eventually people tech for tokens - be it Empty the Warrens, Monastery Mentor, Young Pyromancer or True Name Nemesis the hate is out there and the hard copies of Empty the Warrens often force you to take those play lines when you don't really want to. You're possibly better off with Massacre and Consign/Oblivion in the board, D&T aside I see a lot of Meddling Mages so Massacre has enough applications elsewhere. I'm not a big fan of Telemin Performance anymore either, the problem is the card is a HUGE gamble in game 2 vs ANT and Lands because a lot of those guys have creatures to SB in so it's often a lose condition post board and chokes on Chancellor of the Annex vs Reanimator.
List I'm running if it's of any interest,
MD
1 Ad Nauseam
1 Empty the Warrens
3 Infernal Tutor
4 Burning Wish
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
3 Duress
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Dark Ritual
4 Rite of Flame
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox
4 Polluted Delta
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Swamp
SB
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Grape Shot
1 Diminishing Returns
1 Bribery
1 Past in Flames
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Thoughtseize
1 Consign/Oblivion
1 Massacre
4 Abrupt Decay
1 Bayou
I haven't tried the 2nd Past in Flames out in awhile, I assume you want to use it against Czech Pile?
Another episode of the series TheEpicStorm.com: TES MATCHUP BATTLES! is up and this time we face Dragon Stompy! Giving a breakdown of the matchup that we could face in a tournament and that is less of a major player, but has been around for a while.
http://theepicstorm.com/tes-matchup-...dragon-stompy/
Let me know your thoughts and opinions. Thank you.
- Alex Poling
You haven't answered my questions regarding your tournament report yet. You might want to check them out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Polski_
Thanks for the heads up! Just responded to you.
New article up by yours truly: Today I Fucked Up
http://theepicstorm.com/today-i-fucked-up/
Hi all. I'm a new TES player here looking for some sage advice. I've played storm-style decks before (High Tide in legacy, Doomsday in EDH, Gushbond in vintage, dragonstorm and eggs in modern a long, long time ago), and I've done a fairly large amount of goldfishing and testing with both ANT and TES over the past month. I've got an event coming up tomorrow and I was hoping to get a few pieces of advice before I shuffle the deck up for the first time in a paper tournament. I've read the vast majority of the information on the TES site, the last dozen or so pages on here, and everything recent on Reddit or MTGsalvation, but that amount of information can be a bit overwhelming at times. Assume I'm playing a relatively stock Grixis list (no Bayou unfortunately). My questions:
In a blind matchup, game 1 on the play, how many goblins is enough to warrant going off? I've seen Bryant go off for 10 on occasion, and others on stream/youtube going off for 10 pretty often. Obviously that's a turn 3 kill with no interaction, which is pretty threatening, but easily stymied by Deathrite Shaman, etc long enough for the opponent to stabilize. Is it still worth it to make 10 goblins? How does this decision change for you on the draw, and how does it change during games 2 and 3? If 10 isn't worth it, how many are?
Is it wrong that I'm often tempted to fire off Probe + Therapy on turn 1 to handicap my opponent's grip, even if I'm not prepared to immediately go off? I find that this play comes up pretty often for me, and I usually take that play instinctively even though I know it's generally better to hold your disruption until you're about to go off. As another layer to this question, does the fact that I often find myself with Therapy + Probe a sign of poor mulligan choices on my part?
Is it ever worth it to mulligan down to 4, barring extreme circumstances like 0 mana hands or 5 land hands? I've had objectively terrible 5 card hands that I've kept because going to 4 seems like you won't see enough cards to go off.
In paper games, how do you bait people into forcing mana sources? Online there are no false tells you can give, so it's all up to probability, but in paper you have the ability to headgame the opponent.
If you're playing against a known FoW deck and you have the ability to present a turn 1 combo (with LED/tutor as a chokepoint) with no discard backup, do you go for it? There's a Bryant quote that gets thrown around a lot that goes something like "my odds are never going to get any better," but that seems like a platitude, and I don't put a lot of stock in platitudes. If that rule of thumb is generally true, that's fine, I'd just like to read it in certain terms. I'm also aware that opponents' mulligans have a lot of bearing on this decision.
Thanks for taking the time to read/answer my questions, and thank you guys for all the great content.
Note: 1-person's knee-jerk thoughts while I'm on a conf call so someone might want to fact check my numbers and s*
I'm usually plenty comfortable with 10 gobs T1-otp. The math works out even if the opp plays something like a DRS on each their T1 through T3 that they die to exactly lethal on your T4 barring anything weird happening. If you're playing against D&T and they have T1 play Mom with a SFM for BSkull follow-up; they still die to exactly lethal with 10gobs T1 OTP. Are there situations where you lose to something? Of course - I've played against Eldrazi opps that just had a magical hand of eye and then all the mimics and endless ones.Quote:
Originally Posted by FavoredRevenant
OTD my comfort level usually 14+ based on what the opp does. This is where it varies based on the opp having the ability to deploy a threat that blocks more than 1 turn.
I'm going with 'maybe'. I tend to be somewhat aggressive with my discard but it's contextual. If Probe is showing me crap I don't need to worry about a ton I'm assuming that you aren't just firing therapy for the sake of it. Is Probe drawing me into things where setup of my hand from there is better? What is the rest of our hand anyway? I'm not keeping hands with no direction based on 'probe, therapy, getcha'.Quote:
Originally Posted by FavoredRevenant
Mulligan questions - dunno...what was the rest of the hand? What's the opp on?
(Note I don't play online so, grain of salt)Quote:
Originally Posted by FavoredRevenant
In both cases I would assume you're attempting to use the (without slowplay) 'thoughtful play' to your advantage? It depends what it is, the opp/deck, and your 'reputation' to that point. I don't think of it very dissimilar to poker. If I've created the reputation with my opp that I take riskier lines or something that goes a long way. I've had FoW/Daze pointed at Petals and Moxes because I led with them before playing a land. I'll reiterate storm count at times or speed my pace of play to create the perception I've got the blinders on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FavoredRevenant
http://i1242.photobucket.com/albums/...pssqalcx0f.jpg
I mean, if you don't like that line/approach then don't go with it...?
That line of thought is based on an opp with 4FoW on 7 is ~40% to have one in their opener and something like 85-90% to have a blue card to go with it. As you can imagine the ability to find either of those missing components is going up some amount as they see more cards.
No problem, I appreciate the quick response.Quote:
Originally Posted by KaiSchafroth
This is exactly the kind of answer I was looking for, thanks. I have few/no problems with the technical side of the deck, I just don't want to get blown out by a lack of familiarity with optimal numbers of goblins. I know we're still primarily an AdN->Tendrils deck, but the opportunity to make a pile of green men on turn 1 can't be overlooked. I just don't want to waste that opportunity on too few goblins.Quote:
Originally Posted by KaiSchafroth
Yeah, I'm definitely not playing Therapy just to play it. What I meant was deploying it on turn one to go ahead and rip the Force that I'll have to deal with sooner or later. I think the reason a lot of players wait is that many opponents feel like they're safe, so they'll use their brainstorms etc. to find gas instead of interaction. That definitely makes sense, but ripping it turn 1 just feels so right a lot of the time.Quote:
Originally Posted by KaiSchafroth
That's exactly what I mean to do. I built a reputation for going for safe lines with Zur Doomsday in cEDH, so many times my opponents would take a little extra time preparing their interaction for me. If I could find a line that won a turn earlier, it often meant they weren't ready to interact sufficiently or had tapped out the turn prior. I'd like to find techniques that accomplish the same kind of thing in TES, and didn't know if there were any specifics that you professionals use. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by KaiSchafroth
I'm familiar with the math. My question was mostly if that 60% chance of resolving your line is enough to warrant going for it. Are most experienced TES players comfortable with that number?Quote:
Originally Posted by KaiSchafroth
So I play this deck in a very chalice/D&T/lands heavy meta, and really heavy on wastelands. I have all the duals, except no Volcanic, and am wondering if I should play a Swamp, a Mountain, or a Steam Vents in its place. Please advise
Bryant Cook once said something along the lines of if you are dealt 60% odds, you take em. essentailly If you have a straight 60% shot you have to take itQuote:
Originally Posted by FavoredRevenant
to who may interest:
I've been playing lately 4CC just to do something different than playing Storm (I really suppress from playing Storm when playing other diff. decks...). Recently I tryied again Silences CoB and bullshit as from time to time I just like change things in the deck (100% sur with no success) ...
I remember the 1st configuration of TES post SDT banning and they just had 2 IoK and looked back and noticed how good IoK is in the current meta which by here all seems 4CC and Grixis... just to say I am back on 2 IoK and go back to D.P. instead of D.R. but also from time to time I just play D.R. as I love the card... maybe I try I.C. as a way to interact vs discard in non symetric way... aven't you really noticed how many targets IoK has in this current meta? the unique reason I would prefer to play other card is to have diff. angles of attack - ex.: Xantid or Surgical to interact with the stack...
About the article regaridng I F**** up - reallly read a few lines but I believe it is a good thing to make players aware that likely recognizing their own mistakes is one thing to learn... I as example believe that - when playing TES and loose I just analyze the match ups and see what I could have been wrong and I can say that playing TES it seems that always yourself are the one making mistakes - I mean you are your opponent. Even if you think after the decission you made the correct decision IF the opposite decision made you win the game then IT WAS a bad decission.
One thing I want to express is the following: Sometimes you make a play decision based on game state and odds based on cards the opp. has in hand cards likely to draw, etc. and all the decisions are based on a statistical context - well - I can say there is a small statistical context and a major statistical context and those who contemplate that major statistical context will be the ones that will have the most success with TES. I m not sure If I've been understood with this but the idea is: let's say you have played 5 games vs 4CC and they are likely to have 2 hymns 2 Leovold 4Fow and post board 2 Flusters, If postboard you are going to make a decission based on for example if the opponent invested 1 fluster on that game which is the 3rd game vs this opponent on that day that decission could led to a good conclusion, BUT the difficult matter is to reach that conclussioon based on knowledge on a statistical context of- lets say - 10 games - on that context if it is assumed that if in the 9 previous games post board opponent didnt draw a single fluster vs you until lets say 8th turn. then you'll be luck If your opponent on that 10th game doesn't draw a fluster.
Another example is the following: which is more simple:
playing vs an unknown opp that plays FoW on OtP you have 60% win if it is the 1st turn. well 60% means moreless 2/3 succcess which is fine. If you have 10 1st followed wins vs FoW deck OtP the question is: should you play the 1st turn win the 10 times? the anwer is: and you all will say: YES. for this scenario - well I can say that I will play the 9 games 1st turn win and the 10th no IF this happens. All I can say is that this part of TES is the reason I play TES and 100% sure the most complicated one.
As said this is just an example scenario of what I meant. I hope I explained well...
I went 2-2 in the local event with TES yesterday. Lost to burn and grixis delver, beat burn and enchantress. Writeup here:
https://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/tes-12917/
I'm still pretty bad/new with the deck, but I do think with the surge in graveyard hate it has a leg up on ANT in the current meta.
Went 2-12 in a local tournament this weekend. Should have been 3-1-1, as I completely miscounted mana and on top of that completely misplayed the line in the deciding game of the second lost match. I blame going out for a pint with my Scottish colleagues, which turned into a few pints, which turned into 2-pint steins the night before.
I'm fairly sure I would have eventually won the drawn match as well, but it went to time as it was my first tourney in a long time, and his first tourney, period.
Very educational experience, and I thought finishing 10th out of 19 (and one match-win away from T8) was pretty good considering the hangover and unfamiliarity with the deck.
I used a fairly stock list, except I ran Tendrils main (which won me at least two games) and instead of rending volley (which I don't own) had two deathmarks in the sideboard.
Hi guys, this is the new Storm (ANT and TES) Discord chat:
https://discord.gg/uDsNmMs
You are all welcome!
Enjoy!
:wink:
Another matchup mulligan!
http://theepicstorm.com/matchup-mulligan-lands/
http://theepicstorm.com/reading-ropes-introduction/
"Hey everyone!
My first article in my new series "Reading the Ropes" is now live. The series is aimed at teaching new players the important things that they need to know in order to become a successful Storm pilot.
Give it a read and provide some feedback!" -AJ
So I play in a very blue-light meta, and am wondering if my sideboard should be green or just straight grixis (also still working on getting a bayou, so I would have to play O. Tomb)
do not play O. Tomb.Quote:
Originally Posted by ye_old_storm_boy
If there is no C.B. then A.D. is not really needed - I use A.D. as a way to batle both - M.M / Canonist / Chalice and now C.B. in a single card. sometimes I find M.M others Null Rod, etc. A.D. has been always there since its inception I run more or less depending on C.B. number.
If there is no C.B. you can just run E.T. / CoV / Abrade / Rending Volley to combat M.M / Canonist / Chalice.
My preference have been always E.T. > CoV > rest of cards as these are just the most polivalents - have in mind the TES side is quite reduced and you need to run themost polivalent cards unless there is too much hate coming from specific cards in your meta.
Hope this helps.
Yes it helps a ton. I havent been able to get a straight answer about whether or not green is better in blue matchups.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelikanudo
Hey guys, with the return of green to TES, I had some thoughts about which green land to play!:
http://theepicstorm.com/bayou-vs-taiga/
TES Matchup Battles: Dredge
http://theepicstorm.com/tes-matchup-battles-dredge/
http://media-dominaria.cursecdn.com/...619055050.jpeg
seems a bit far fetched due to the high cmc, but may it be possible to get something like a variant of TES rolling without red and an even more stable mana base?
Grim Tutor or Deathwish would be a better bet, the mana is a prohibitive restraint as it would need to be at most BBB to work at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by zangoasyl
agree if it would be -1mana...Quote:
Originally Posted by Final Fortune
JPA fresh off his GP Finals finish at Santa Clara sits down to chat with our boy Jasper. Read it or don't, whatever. http://theepicstorm.com/through-the-...ll-with-jpa93/
Another episode of the series TheEpicStorm.com: TES MATCHUP BATTLES! is up and this time we face Aluren!
http://theepicstorm.com/tes-matchup-battles-aluren/
Let me know your thoughts and opinions. Thank you.
Alex Poling