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So Daze it. Even under Orim's Chant we have Cursecatcher, Relic, Wasteland. Generally if you kill all of their lands and have 11 disruption pieces, then 3 Stifles you will win. Obviously if they have the nuts you will lose, but that doesn't happen more than 1 time every 3 games.Quote:
Originally Posted by memnarch
It really is almost auto win.
One man's experience testing VS Burn.dec:
So, I played a few rounds against my friend's Legacy Burn deck tonight that he's taking to the tournament with me... And I'm not entirely sure why everyone is saying it's such a difficult match-up. We only played about 8 or 10 games, but I had the advantage over him by two games at the end.
It may be that his build isn't quite optimized, I haven't taken the time to pick it apart, since I'm not really a Burn player... Also, I think since it was the first time we were both playing this specific match-up, we were probably making a few play errors... But I would think that Merfolk would be more susceptible to newbie play errors, so I'm not sure what to make of that.
I noticed for one thing, that he never actually tried to burn my creatures and always elected to race me as quick as possible, that's pretty much just his play-style (lookin' at you, Yug, if you happen to read this)... So I think that ultimately favored me, because he wasn't expecting how quickly my team gets big and out of range with double lords out. However, he main-decks two Volcanic Fallout and two Flamebreak, so I was expecting the match-up to be a lot more in his favor...
Here's a little write-up:
The sideboard plan I used:
In the post-sideboarded games we played, my plan was -3 Wakethrasher, -3 Stifle, +4 Divert, +2 Chill. I'm not sure I'm actually running 4 Divert, 2 Chill in my sideboard, but I just wanted to try it out as a plan, because my sideboard is still under consideration. As far as I'm concerned, the sideboard slots that are written in stone in my mind are 3 Back to Basics, 3 Pithing Needle, 3 Echoing Truth. This leaves me with six open slots in my sideboard. Cards under consideration are Divert, Hydroblast, Chill, Umezawa's Jitte, Kira GGS (I think I'm gonna run Sygg in the main instead of her), Propaganda, Relic of Progenitus (I plan to run 2 or 3 main), Threads of Disloyalty, etc.
Things I noticed VS. Burn (reactions at first blush):
*Kira is pretty solid, but not as back-breaking as I'd thought she'd be. This is mostly because as I mentioned, my opponent pretty much always tried to point the burn at my dome... so Kira (I was trying two copies in the main-deck) didn't ultimately do much. I'm fairly sure that I'm gonna use 2 Sygg instead of my 2 Kira... Does anyone just think that's utter madness? (I'd like to play 22-24 creatures so I can be a touch more aggressive)
*I never successfully retargeted anything with Divert, out of like the seven sideboarded games we played, and I put four in the deck. There were a couple situations where I played it while he had two or more mana up, just to eat up the rest of his mana for the turn, but it hardly seems like a strong play. That's basically like a one-shot Chill. I'm really not so sure how strong the card is... And I don't think Misdirection is necessarily the right replacement, I'm considering just opening up the three sideboard slots I had been saving for Divert. It seems like all sorts of fun to redirect opponent's removal, burn, discard, etc, but the fact that I was left sitting with Divert in my hand several times against Burn (which is supposed to be where this card shines) leaves me skeptical. Possible candidates for its slot are listed above in the previous section.
* Standstill > Rift Bolt. This shit was just hilarious. I don't know if I'm just lucky, but it seemed like every time he suspended a Rift Bolt, I had a Standstill in hand to drop during my next turn... It definitely makes it easier to recover when their Lightning Bolt clones start making you draw three cards randomly. :laugh:
*Ensnaring Bridge is a huge problem for us... The one matchup where he tried putting it in, I had him sitting at three life and had him in top-deck mode... And what can I say, his freaking top-deck crushed me brutally. It almost makes me think that we should side in Echoing Truth against Burn, but it seems like besides Bridge, there's a real lack of relevant targets in their deck. I certainly don't want to bounce a fucking Keldon Marauders back to his hand, and with Mogg Fanatic, it's like 'when would that really be the right play?" I'm interested what people think of whether or not siding in bounce as an answer to Bridge is an improvement, or if it would dilute our efficiency.
*Chill owns. I'm not really sure why folks were discounting the strength of Chill for a while there (nice to see it back in the list on the OP). But honestly, what Divert did not do for me, Chill brought in spades. After we played a game where I got two out against him, he was like "You don't seriously have the space to put Chill in your sideboard do you? You're not allowed to play it against me if you're not bringing it to the tournament, that shit is unfair." To which I replied, "I think I may actually be able to find the space for it."
Questions:
*Divert: Should it stay, or should it go? As the man said, if Divert stays there may be trouble, but if Divert goes, it could be double. I'd like to hear some experiences from folks on both side of the fence, because I noticed that other folks are putting Divert up in the air recently also. Has anyone ever had a match-up where Divert literally, single-handedly, allowed a play that turned around a losing game on the spot? I noticed similar problems with it that other folks have been pointing out: it's an early game spell but our early game is clogged up with better plays, it's too conditional, and ultimately what I don't like about Divert is that it's a spell that forces you to play around the opponent rather than forcing them to play around you. It just seemed inefficient to have to wait for the moment when he was tapped out, especially since he was often tapping out to play permanents rather than spells, playing his burn first and then following with Marauders, Fanatic, Bridge, or what-have-you. (It seems like this is a good, and really fucking easy way, for the opponent to essentially blank out Divert, and I don't like that either.)
*Is Chill too limited of a card to use in the sideboard? Games where I got it out, I was beating on him like a red-headed stepchild, but I wonder if it hits enough decks to warrant inclusion in the sideboard? Off the top of my head, it would kick Dragon Stompy, Burn, and Goblins squah in the nuts, but I can't think of many other decks that run enough Red for it to be relevant. Would it do anything against, for instance, Aggro Loam?
*Was my friend just mis-playing, or should I expect most Burn players not to usually point their burn at my creatures? Obviously, they're the aggro in that match-up, so it seems like he was usually making the right play... But for example, I wouldn't have won any un-sideboarded games against him with Wakethrasher if he had been a little more judicious about holding onto his burn spells. :wink:
*Let's say I axe Divert... What gets its slot? (For your convenience, a re-cap. Here's where my sideboard is now: 3 B2B, 3 Pithing Needle, 3 Echoing Truth. And here's the list of spells I'm considering for the sideboard: Hydroblast, Chill, Umezawa's Jitte, Kira Great Glass Spinner (I think I'm gonna run Sygg in the main instead of her), Propaganda, Relic of Progenitus (I plan to run 2 or 3 main), Threads of Disloyalty, etc.) It seems kind of open-ended to me... But I guess that's because Divert seems slightly worthless to me so far.
Anyways, I hope to hear some feedback from y'all on this. The first tourney I'm going to with this deck is this Saturday, so I don't have a lot of time to play-test unfortunately. To be honest, I'm not sure my Stifles from eBay are going to arrive in time!! *eek* Motherfucker better have my scrilla!!! :cool:
Anyone who studied more than basic math will tell you that it's a hell of alot better to burn the creatures than the player. You got lucky.
(I would probebly not burn Silvergill and Curse but the lords are fuckgone instantly)
Yeah... I kind of figured as much... I think he was relying on Volcanic Fallout to handle my armies of the deep, and it doesn't seem to be enough on its own. It's not like he never burned any of my critts, but I think he didn't appreciate the importance of trying to hinder my early-game development as much as a more experienced player would have. I think the only time I can recall him burning a bunch of my creatures is to stop me from winning on the attack.Quote:
Originally Posted by elof
(I almost pointed out the mistake to him in his play-style, but I figured, "We're playing in the same tourney... So I'll wait. Don't want to boost his game too much if I might have to play against him...") *Evil laugh*
EDIT: Also, on my friend's behalf, I think it's important to remember that a lot of the burn spells folks use these days are sorceries, and he and I haven't been playing these particular decks all that long, so I don't think he fully appreciated how much more versatile Lightning Bolt's 'instant' status makes it against this deck... He's a good Magic player to be sure, but what can I say: he pretty much only plays mono-Red, if that says anything... Y'know, "a plebeian." (That's right, Yug, I said it. Big whoop, wanna-fight-about-it?) (ah, who am I kidding, I doubt he reads this thread...)
Yeah I think the only decision to take in burn is when to actually burn a creature and when not. Lords are definitely a strong target because they so much decrease the positive outcome of the damage race from a burn player's perspective.Quote:
Originally Posted by elof
Ah well judging the value of Divert from Merfolk vs. Burn is a little limited. Divert is not a strong sb card against burn because Divert to be effective needs two things to happen. 1) It is better if your mana denial strategy applies which does not for Burn 2) Divert is better if you can transform a disadvantage into a(n) (card) advantage and not just neutralizing a card with another card. Chill is obviously a better card to bring in versus burn but then Burn is just a very unlikely matchup that I would not consider it in my SB plans. Other decks utilizing red will have more targets where divert can produce card advantage (RW Beats). Flamebreak can be very devestating without a counter in your hand. That would be the card I would fear most ... Ensnaring bridge might come in Game 2 so you have to bring ET Game 3. ah just considering Flamebreak again vs. Volcanic Fallout becasue you are mentioning it. Uncounterable is cool but even uncountered it is not enough to deal with common threats like Nimble Mongoose, Kird Ape und Wild Nacatl. Against Merfolk it is still good I think becasue as a Burn player you can take out the Lords first and then destroy the rest easily with Fallout.
On the one hand Standstill is generally not a bad card against Burn because they always have to break it while you can sit there but on the other hand you actually can not afford to just sit there and wait for the Burn palyer filling up his hand again. Rift Bolt helps of course ...
*About Divert: Ok... but you're kind of just proving my point that Divert isn't worth it. Allow me to respectfully retort: When, exactly, is Divert a good card to have in your sideboard? Against decks that splash a color for removal? Against dedicated Land Destruction or Discards strategies? ...I'm really trying to give folks the chance to convince me that Divert can be super-relevant in the right match-up, but its applications are just seeming more limited to me by the second.Quote:
Originally Posted by Nekrataal
*About Standstill VS Burn: "Not so sure I agree with you a hundred percent your police work there, Lou." (side note: I'm a Cohen Brothers dork) Obviously you don't want to play it if you don't have any sources of pressure... But vs Burn as long as you have a way of consistently swinging for at least two, I would think you're usually pretty safe dropping a Standstill. I mean, he's going to burn you or your creatures when he gets burn cards in his hand anyways, you might as well draw three cards because of it, right? If he's sitting there filling up his hand and we aren't hitting him in the face on our turn, obviously, we're doing something wrong.
The thing about Standstill vs Burn is that you must have a Mutavault or a Vial before playing Standstill. If you don't and still play it, he can burn your creature, you and him play draw go for a couple of turns and then in your EOT he plays random bolt, you draw cards, discards and h'll have 6-7 burn cards in his hand. That doesn't look to good...
Divert is a good card against burn, especially in the first few turns, as all you need to do is leave up 1 mana to turn around any spell, slowing them down. Kira is huge in this matchup as well, but as your friend sucks, her value is not going to be seen.
Divert is really good against BGW control decks (Thoughtseize, Hymn, Sinkhole, Vindicate, StoP sometimes). Against burn it really just turns around 3 damage (which is why Misdirection isn't even worth using against them since you're going to pitch your hand for a measly 3 damage turn around.
Try making your friend play goyf sligh, at least then when he defaults to the usual bad player "turn creature sideways, burn blockers" it will show you a lot more of our weakness than him trying to race exponential damage races.
Divert is good against Burn for the first few turns. Ditto BGW Control. Misdirection is good in all the same matchups and does not sit dead in your hand before turn 1 and after turn 4.
@Duke: Most of these guys are not going to test this out. So you will continue to hear both sides. But there is a reason one of these is a $12 and the other $1. In the end, do what your testing reveals to work. If you hav tested and other have not YOU are the one who should be answering questions.
@Duke: How many lands was in your burn playing partners deck? I would be surprised if most lists consistently made more than three land drops in the first five turns - and if they do, that's great news for you anway. Divert is excellent against burn providing a huge tempo swing especially if you're saving a beater and sending damage back - even more backbreaking if you target something like fireblast which is often played when tapped out.
Please look into the primer for boarding strategy and to comments I made mentioning a couple of concrete matchups as well as general archetypes. You also name some relevant sceanrios, so why is its application limited? Divert is for saving our guys because they are only strong in numbers and reflect Discard or LD. This accounts for a lot of decks. Again this has to work with the land denial package, so if your opponent is playing lots of lands or maybe only basics this might lower the value of Divert, but then the matchups I have in mind like TA, EvaGreen or GoyfSligh all are vulnerable to Wasteland and Stifle, so have a good Divert-proposition and play Discard or Spotremoval. Test these matchups and tell me that Divert isn't great. However I would split it with Misdirection and never play more than three because of the same arguments we play 3 Daze.Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeDemonKn1ght
@Sunshine: "Divert is excellent against burn providing a huge tempo swing especially if you're saving a beater and sending damage back - even more backbreaking if you target something like fireblast which is often played when tapped out."
I won't say that Divert sucks against Burn, all I am saying is that it can do far better regarding card advantage. This is not possible against Burn. It buys you time and there are surely some insane plays like diverting Fireblast ... that should be fun.
Remember it also can be played as a "Counter target counterspell unless opponent does not pay 2".
I certainly agree that divert can do better, I'm just saying that I would definitely be siding it in for that match up it it's in my board.
Agreed.Quote:
Originally Posted by sunshine
So my board currently is:
2 Hydroblast
3 Divert
3 ET
3 Needle
2 BtB
2 Kira
Against Burn I would board
-3 Relique
-2 Stifle
-2 Wakethrasher
Because both are pretty useless
+3 Divert
+2 Hydroblast
+ 2 Kira
ET just makes sense if Ensnaring Bridge is played. One more Stifle could also go out but I just have nothing to replace it with.
I'm doing heavy testing with the Dreadfolk list that I'm optimizing. I took out Adepts and played with Shapesharer. For more discussion on Dreadfolk, see my article in N&D on Dreadfolk. I think it has some promise.
Here're 3 quick MU on MWS. 2 more MU are in the Dreadfolk thread and I'm playing this list on Saturday with Legacy friends, hopefully to test against Imperial Painter, Elf Survival, Eva Green, Landstill, FT, Dreadstill, UGw Thresh, Gobs.
But here's the list that I've tested today on MWS:
I went with the Echoing Truth suggestion and tested this list on MWS:
13 Islands
4 Wasteland
3 Mutavault
4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
3 Shapesharer
4 Merror Reejerey
3 Dreadnought
3 Daze
4 FOW
3 Echoing Truth
4 Stifle
4 Standstill
4 Aether Vial
The 3 Echoing Truth have been pretty amazing in testing and I think it's definitely worth the space. Merfolk/Dreadfolk plays tempo to some extent, although it can't beat the Gods of tempo, namely TA and UGr Thresh. Echoing Truth is perhaps the only mono-blue tempo card. Too bad we don't have StP/Smother/Snuff outs but Echoing Truth sometimes shines out. I played against D&T (with figure) and Templar Goblins today on MWS. Here's some result with ET testing:
D&T (with figure):
This was a hard matchup since they play Vial and wastes i.e. your Standstill plan will not go as well. Nevertheless I think I made some crucial right plays.
Game 1: I countered turn 1 vial with FOW, dropped a 2 cursecatcher. He opens with 2 Figures in 2 turns, beating me down to 12 really fast. I had an ET in my hand and a Standstill with vial @2 and Shapesharer in play. I took 4 more damage from Figures going to 8 so that I can ET EOT and drop vial next turn. Unfortunately he drops a Serra Avenger. I ET the 2 Figures EOT and drew into LoA next turn. I dropped standstill and passed the turn.
He beats with Serra Avenger which I copy using Shapesharer, and traded. He is now board-clear and I vial LoA EOT. I proceed to draw into another Shapesharer, vialed him in and copied LoA, swung for 3. In the next 2 turns, I brought him down to 9 life with some other mutavault beats. He swords 1 lord and drops Grunt. I copy grunt and swing, and traded again, and he lost the match from there without much tempo after I land a mutavault.
Game 2: He opens with another aggressive hand of Figures. I played some Merfolk beats and used Rejeerey to tap down his Grunts who were blocking. The games were very close but I think it turned in my favor when I EOT Shapeshared his Mangara, removing his Serra Avenger. I had 2 vials which he Mangaraed the one set @3 (Vial@2 is more important in this list IMO). The game stalled for awhile but he managed to get Avengers and Stonecloaker online which ended it for me.
Game 3: I played out more aggro than he did. Kept the Stifles against Mangara, and dropped out Rejeereys via vial and tapped him out and beat him. Shapesharer was again involved in turning my 2 lords in play into 3 lords, and pushed 12 damage through in a turn (he had to chump my 4/4 merfolks with Figures, and it was a waste for him). The game got a little scary when he StPed my 2 lords away and he stabilized from that, while he dropped a Jitte and Avenger. Echoing Truth on equipping Avenger saved me 2 turns, which was needed to beat him down with tiny Cursecatcher and Mutavaults.
Comments: The only thing I can say about the D&T MU is that flying sucks for us, and flying without an opposing Island makes LoA mediocore. D&T is somewhat hard against us since they have a lot of pin-point removal, and they have evasive flyers. They run no islands which suck for us, and they have Wastes for our mutavaults and vials, which opposes the tempo-strategy of this deck. I was somewhat disappointed I didn't get any Stiflenought or SSNought this game, although it wouldn't have mattered against StPs etc. But Echoing Truths have been good at buying 1-2 turns.
Things I noted when playing Merfolk. We can push ridiculous amounts of damage 8-12 a turn when backed by countermagic, but if we lose one Lord, we get slowed by so many turns. Shapesharer has never been a regret for me. It turned the board position when he copies a lord, and you force your opponents to trade in your favor when they see three 4/4s swinging in. Also, Shapesharer allows you to trade with flyers, which Merfolk has such a bad MU against.
I have little regrets with Shapesharer over Adepts in this list/MU. Assuming you topdecked Silvergill Adept instead, you would had been paying 5 mana to draw a card that could do nothing against flyers. That extra card you drew would be useless in topdeck mode since there's still a flyer in play that you cannot get rid of (blue runs no removal). Echoing Truth is your safest bet, but I've been satisfied with Shapesharer killing stalls by trading or rebuilding your hand and army in topdeck/stall mode. I would prefer to pay 5 mana to copy a creature than pay 5 mana for a 2/1 cantripper.
Problems with this decklist: Without Standstill, you run out of cards fairly fast and is kinda crappy. I can see why Silvergill Adept is good now. It refills your hand, but it is only good with a board position of Lords and an early game position. Shapesharer loses that CA but it is good with or without a board position of lords.
Templar Goblins
Game 1: He won the die roll and got a turn 1 Vial countered by FOW. I dropped vial and passed turn. He drops another colorless source and passes. I was lucky he got manascrewed (Gobs always get mana-screwed eh?). He ports my island, and I drop Island and pass. He drops a bloodstained mire which I stifled. I vialed in LoA and played another LoA and passed, and proceeded to beat for 6 next turn. He finally got a red source and played matron for Piledriver. I vialed in Shapesharer and vialed in Merrow Reejerey next turn, copied the Reejerey and swung with 2 LoA + Shapesharer (with a total of 4 Lord effects, each of them being a 5/5). He scoops.
Game 2: I sided out 3 Daze, 1 Stifle and 1 Rejereey and boarded in 5 BEB effects. I kept a hand of 1 Island, 3 Blasts, 1 Force, 1 Stifle, 1 Shapesharer. I thought it was a God hand against him. If I drew another land, I would be in business. He dropped lackey, I dropped Island and I blast Lackey when swings in. He dropped a vial and I forced. I drew Island, played shapesharer and pass. He drops a Goblin Warchief and beats for 2. I topdeck Dreadnought next turn and went ahead with StifleNought. I played that safely since he only had 1 red source, and unless he plays a black source next turn, he can not Fanatic my Shapesharer and weirding my Nought. I took the risk since that would involve him having 3 cards to get rid of my Nought. He went "-.-" on MWS when I dropped Nought. Who would have suspected Nought in Merfolks? (man I harth Dreadfolk <3).
Next turn, he had an answer though. He dropped a red source, plays matron for 1R and searched for Goblin Tinkerer but could not activate since he only had RR that turn. I breathed a sigh of relief and blasted his Tinkerer, and swung with Dreadnought and Shapesharer copying Nought for 24 trample damage in 1 turn!!
:D:D:D:D
He went "Holy shit since he didn't notice the synergy with Shapesharer and Dreadnought". That was on turn 4 for me. For the first time in Magic, I was able to swing with more than 20 combat damage on Turn 4. That was pretty cool :P
Comments: I would suggest running 5 blasts effect in the SB slot since they help against Aggro Loam, Burn and Goblins. It techincally is a turn 1 answer to Lackey, kills Inf/Inf large Crushers, counters Aggro Loam, provide some cheap answers to burn, and counters pyroclasm. Siding out Cursecatcher against aggro deck may be a good answer but Cursecatchers are simply amazing in any opposing control/aggro-control decks. Shapesharer is my most favorite creature in the deck. He is almost never useless. The only time he's useless is when your opponent has a weak creature, which is not a big deal since you're fine if your opponent has a weak win-condition.
Merfolk
He left MWS before finishing G1. Such a waste, we had mirror plays, but I think I played right.
He dropped Vial, I forced. I drop Vial, He plays out Adepts and Cursecatchers. I have 2 Mutavaults. He drops Lord and beats for 5. And next turn, I PLAYED STANDSTILL. I thought it was the right decision since in the Mirror, his LoA will help me out, and I already had 2 Mutavaulst, Vial@2, LoA in hand. I could easily have swung for at least 12 damage next turn with protection from Standstill and an Echoing Truth in hand in case his board gets out of hand. The mirror is really funny when you abuse their lords and Islandwalk in your favor :D Playing Standstill with a clear board was kind of cool that game. He quit and left MWS. LEAVER!
I can't wait to test this list against Landstill, but I heard Merfolks has a good MU against Landstill since you kill their Standstill, and Merfolks packing Stifle is good against Boardsweepers, not to mention Islandwalking Factories :D
If anyone can help me test the lists and tweak with it, I would appreciate it a lot. I feel that this deck has a good future, and perhaps will get integrated as an archetype as a sub-Merfolk deck, or in general as an archetype of Dread-aggro by itself. I think the only other Dread-aggro deck is Dreadnought with Affinity, which IMO isn't as good as this list that plays 4 FOW, 4 Daze, 4 Vial and 4 Standstills :) Echoing Truths have been good, and I have a 70-80% good feeling that it should be in the main. It answers so many problems the deck faces. Bouncing just ONE permanent is already good. Submerge is good but I think that ET fulfills the same role, if not better (assuming no Countertop) since it answers more consistently. The fact that it's not "Free" is not a problem at all, since you're cheating and playing spells for free usually via vials etc.
Counterbalance? Thoughtseize? I can go on and on, but the lack of counterbalance is the most important one. This deck isn't that good against ANT. It surely isn't an autowin. It might even be unfavorable or even. I have played against this deck with ANT on a tournament and won. It was pretty close, that is true and it doesn't mean that much, but I know combo well enough to pretty much figure out the matchup just by looking at the decklist. It's one of the better decks against combo, but without Counterbalance, certainly winnable for combo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Phoenix Ignition
I take it you haven't played burn. Your advice is terrible whether you've played it or not, you have to calculate.Quote:
Originally Posted by elof
Burn's problem is drawing cards. The question is generally about whether or not you can draw 20 damage (+ any damage you use against creatures + any extra damage cause you got countered) before they can beat you to death.
Burning a 3-4 power creature (that's what Lord is) buys you between 0 and 3 extra turns of life. If the only beats on the horizon is a Lord and a CC, you might burn the lord because it will buy you a number of extra turns, but if they have a fairly aggressive board and you can't get board control or if you're low on life, you're not going to win any games by trading your burn for their dudes.
Anyway, the real question is: How much damage worth of burn are you going to draw in the extra 3 turns (- how many counterspells are they going to draw).
The math is very, very basic and leads to the fact that creature burn should be extremely rare in standard play.
Put it another way: A staple card in burn for a long time was Flame Rift. Often this was run strictly over Incinerate. Burn players really do not give a fuck that you just hit them for 4, they only care about the 1 extra damage. That should give you some idea about the conversion rate burn players have to be willing to endure in order to win games.
Although there are times when you might burn a Lord, the combat math (taking into account likely creature drops) should be used. Just count the number of turns the burn spell will buy you (of life). If the answer is 3 or more, then definitely burn the creature. If it's 1 or less, never burn the creature.
Unless, potentially, you're mana screwed or chilled or something and aren't likely to be able to dump your hand.
Bottom line: It doesn't surprise me at all that Wakethrashers won some games.
He was unable to kill you with burn.
If he'd burned the Wakethrasher to buy himself more time, he'd be at least that much + 3 more damage away from being able to kill you.
EDIT: Hard to tell off the top, probably it was a mistake to use up the burn earlier, since apparently the Wakethrasher turned the game around, but I wouldn't claim that it's definitely a mistake or that he is a noob given the information that we have. As a burn player, you have to be looking to deal 20 and some quick topdeck probability can tell you what's the most likely play.
This thread is for discussing Merfolk, not the correct way to play Burn.
-TOOL
You may very well be right. I was just a bit curious about the fact that 'folks plays 18-24 creatures where at least 4 of them has power 1. I just assumed that if you burn all relevant creatures, you should have enough turns to burn him out.
Folks has no carddraw except for Standstill and Adept. Perhaps Standstill makes it more worth to speed up the killing, otherwise, you should be able to simply burn the deck down, considering it only has 4 counters (don't count Daze).
I board 'Still out against Burn. Even if you have a Mutavault out, it won't always benefit you - you can beat your opponent to, say, 10 in five turns while he loads up on cards. He burns you end of turn, and often will have enough cards to burn you for the rest in the next two turns before you get to attack with all those creatures you have in hand. Remember that pre-board, you only have your 4 Forces (he will be able to play around Daze after those turns), and after sideboarding he will bring in Blasts to combat your Diverts/Misdirections.
The only situation where I drop 'Still against Burn is with a Vial out, but I don't think that's enough, especially since I would want to side Vial out as well.
I came off as pretty insulting. Allow me to elaborate with an example:
Picture this (very) simplified situation:
Your opponent is at 6. He plays a Wakethrasher with 5 tapped permanents (including a Lord of Atlantis and Cursecatcher).
You're at 12 and have 3 land. The swing will be for 11 on the next turn, meaning you'll surely die if you can't win. If you burn the Wakethrasher, the swing will be for 4, giving you three turns to live unless he draws a Lord or Wakethrasher on his next turn. He has 38 cards in his deck and 9 Lords/Wakethrashers remaining. If you don't burn the Wakethrasher now, you'll not get another chance.
Your opponent has no cards in hand. And neither do you.
You draw a Lightning Bolt for your turn. There are 4 Rift Bolts remaining in the deck, 4 Magma Jets and 15 other 3-damage burn left and 40 cards left in the deck. No other spell is relevant (e.g. Mogg Fanatic or Mountains).
In this situation, should you burn the Wakethrasher?
**Spoiler**
If you burn the dome, then you have 15/40 chance of winning the game. Riftbolt doesn't help since it can get caught.
If you burn the Wakethrasher (which seems on the face of it the correct play), you will probably lose. You'll go to 8. Even if the opponent does not draw a lord to threaten the kill next turn (drawing a lord means you certainly lose), he's threatening a kill in the next two turns, you're in deep shit.
Although Magma Jet off the top allows you to burn their Lord (assuming again that they did not draw into another Lord) and then filter down. Even if Magma Jet guarantees a 100% chance to win (assuming no Lord on the first draw) you still are much better off saving burn for the dome and praying.
They have a 9/40 chance of drawing a lord, GG.
You have a 19/40*15/39 chance of getting two 3 damage burn (this is a slight overestimate because it assumes you get a Rift Bolt on the first draw, but close enough for my purposes).
You have a 4/40 chance of getting the Magma Jet. Again, this assumes that Magma Jet will win the game, which is obviously not true. Also, your opponent could draw into Force of Will, etc. etc.
Strict overestimate of the probability of winning: (31/40*(19/40*15/39 + 4/40)) or 22%.
I constructed the situation for my purposes (so obviously burning the dome would be better), but I assume a lot of people in this thread would have burned the Wakethrasher in a similar game situation. That play cuts your probability of winning by about half.
I also assume that Merfolk players would attribute their win (in the likely situation where the opponent let the Wakethrasher live and then lost in two turns) to their opponent not burning the Wakethrasher, and might chalk it up as a play mistake.
This thread is for discussing Merfolk, not the correct way to play Burn.
-TOOL
I just want to clearify that I don't recommend playing Standstill against burn, it's just that aside from Adept, it's our only card that draws card. Hell, burn even got Magma Jet... If you have enough card to board in, it's definitly worth boarding out Standstill.Quote:
Originally Posted by georgjorge
Thank you. I think thresh and stacks has a better chance against it, possibly even loam, chalice surely does damage. So the question is, do we want to relegate SB slots for it? I say yes. If so what would you use? the Thorn doesn't seem like a bad option, maybe even coming in against burn with chill?Quote:
Originally Posted by matelml
i am really not understanding this bit about 'folk being mediocre against ANT. how much can the combo player do on their second turn when i've got cursecatcher on board, stifle mana up, and daze in my hand? people keep mentioning counterbalance, when counterbalance is only good with top out in play, and the likeliness of them having both out is a lot less then the chances that i'll have cursecatcher on the first turn with a counter in my hand
Thanks for the explanation, Forbiddian. Like I said, I really don't play Burn, I just like my deck to have a few more tricks up its sleeve... so the downside is that there are a few of the finer points I don't get about how to play... well, pretty much the simplest deck there is. :laugh:Quote:
Originally Posted by Forbiddian
But my friend has been playing RDW, Burn, etc, in tournaments of different formats, for about five or six years, and it's pretty much all he plays, so I had a hard time believing that he just didn't understand how to play his deck against a Weenie deck with disruption... I can see burning lords, maybe Wakethrasher in the right circumstance, but as Forbiddian has been illustrating so well, in Burn decks your removal doubles as your win condition, and there's no reliable card-draw, so you have to be willing to play with your life total on the edge. From what experience I've had in the match-up, Burn doesn't really plan on burning our creatures, so much as it's prepared to do it if it's the only way to save its ass...
Anyways though, I think Kira is still worth a thought, but mostly for decks with StP, Rock decks, Mono Black of pretty much any form, stuff like that... The thing is, besides StP, I don't think most of those decks get that much play... Correct me if I'm wrong.
Honestly, the main thought that occurs to me based on all this is... Psionic Blast may be worth taking a closer look at. For example, I've noticed that this deck gets fucked hard by Ensnaring Bridge, Moat, and to a lesser extent Propaganda/Ghostly Prison... stuff like that. Echoing Truth is good in this situation, but if there's any way to find the space for it, I think two copies of Psi-Blast could actually prove to be good in a number of match-ups, either sideboard, or if any creative soul can find room in the main-deck...
Here's my argument for Psi-Blast, in brief: It seems to me that this is pretty much the most down-and-dirty way to deal with the stalling out problem that we occasionally encounter. I've found no problem getting the opponent down to pretty low life so far, as long as I don't keep shitty hands, but sometimes those last few points of damage are a little harder to come by. I can see how it could help us push through the last few points under a lock. And against a fair amount of decks that don't employ any kind of creature-lock, we could swing with the whole team and then surprise the fuck out of them by Psi-Blasting them to death when they thought they had a turn to stabilize.
I'd like to hear some thoughts on Psionic Blast, because I don't think it's gotten enough discussion... Or else, I could be wrong. *After all, I am the one who suggested Ankh, and technically Unstable Mutation (although that was only a red herring to see whose advice not to take. dastardly, no?) I will say this though: Unless we're at two or less life (or if our opponent is packing some sort of burn and we're at five or less with no counter), Psionic Blast is never a completely dead top-deck.
I like the ideá of Psi-Blast to, however, I havn't gotten time to test i yet. It sounds really intresting, but I think it needs to be playtested first...
Agreed. I played Merfolk in the Meandeck Open on Sunday, and beat ANT in round four. Both games I had cursecatcher and daze in hand, and in game two I resolved standstill on turn two, three, and five, with force+ blue card on each turn. Truth is, he never had a chance. Maybe I just got lucky, but I see storm combo as a very favorable MU. I beat Thresh, Team America, MUC, and ANT in my frist four rounds and drew the last two rounds into the playoffs, where I lost to White Weenie first round. Got Destroyed!Quote:
Originally Posted by srsbsns
Eventually you will learn that time =/= skill. The fact that your friend has been playing burn decks exclusively for 5 years says a lot about his skill.Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeDemonKn1ght
Killing Wake Thrasher gives them an extra 4-5 turns, where they draw 3 more spells on average. Same with burning a lord. Magma Jet kills both and ensures more burn to come. Don't naively think that the burn player has to race us. We can do 10+ damage in a turn if we get going, but 1-3 damage a turn if we don't.Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeDemonKn1ght
No, Forbiddian didn't show anything other than in the situation listed, the burn player is better off waiting
You're wrong. Burn isn't even the bad matchup, Goyf Sligh is. They combine burning our folk with swinging with big creatures.Quote:
Anyways though, I think Kira is still worth a thought, but mostly for decks with StP, Rock decks, Mono Black of pretty much any form, stuff like that... The thing is, besides StP, I don't think most of those decks get that much play... Correct me if I'm wrong.
How would 2 Psionic Blast be better than 2 Echoing Truth in these situations, ever? We always have at least 4 damage on the board if they have a wall like that up. That and the extra 4 damage one-shot is rarely going to be the finishing blow, not to mention it doesn't take care of any creature that we're afraid of. And it auto shocks us, which is huge considering how many games I win by 2 or less life.Quote:
Honestly, the main thought that occurs to me based on all this is... Psionic Blast may be worth taking a closer look at. For example, I've noticed that this deck gets fucked hard by Ensnaring Bridge, Moat, and to a lesser extent Propaganda/Ghostly Prison... stuff like that. Echoing Truth is good in this situation, but if there's any way to find the space for it, I think two copies of Psi-Blast could actually prove to be good in a number of match-ups,
"If you'll read my response, you'll also note that I never thought you were replacing ET with PB. Why wouldn't you run ET #3 and 4 instead of some 4 damage burn spell?" -Phoenix Ignition
Well, maybe because there's potentially room for both in the sideboard, or else P-blast could take up two of the freestyle slots in the main-deck? Think of that?
Psi-Blast is never a completely dead top-deck unless it would kill us immediately or next turn. This isn't true about Daze, Stifle, Standstill, and Relic: cards which have definitely proven themselves worthy of the main-deck. I'm not flat-out advocating Psi-Blast, but I think it deserves actual testing instead of just speculative Negative-Nancy-ing.
Yes, I have thought of that. Some of us have been playing this deck for over half a year, and have considered many cards and many different strategies. That's not to say we've considered every card, but we do have a general idea of what will work and not. PB has been suggested before, but it just doesn't help enough. Why has Flametongue Kavu been dropped completely from almost every list? Because 4 damage doesn't cut it. 4 to the face isn't as good as synergy with our deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeDemonKn1ght
Psi Blast is no good if they're at more than 4 life and you're losing the damage race. Also it costs 3 and doesn't take care of threatening creatures.Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeDemonKn1ght
Test it then and come back with results.Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeDemonKn1ght
Maybe it's just me... but posting lists from Europe as an argument tool just doesn't seem right when you guys play in America(If i'm correct).
Most of the time i look at those lists and wonder how anyone in their right mind could win with such bad cards. Unstable Mutation belongs in Mono U Aggro, not Merfolk.
I understand your point but it needs some clearification. Applying that Europe has worse decks than America is wrong. We have however a different meta game, yes. Also, that Unstable Mutation list was from 2007, before Cursecatcher/Mutavault/Wake Thrasher. I don't find it that strange of a list.Quote:
Originally Posted by Loxodon Baileyarch
How does a Mono U Aggro list looks like?
Report:
Ahem, Cunning Wish has NOT been what I had hoped. Interestingly, casting it has not been a problem. I pitch it to FoW at times, as you might expect. And I hold it, looking for a suitable target. But the options in blue instants SUUUUUUCK. There have been times when I look at the options and just get my 4th Stifle.
I feel that the only solution is to try to fit 2 Wipe Away and 2 Relics in the main. But I will certainly not be playing with the 3x Wasteland that srsbsns is. I would sooner play 61 cards.
I started testing this deck and 1 card that was pretty good for me as a sideboard option was Annul.
I must admit I have seen a lot of dreadstill, landstill and suiblack (E-plague). But the card take care of a lot of troublesome card for U.
Maybe a 2-3 inclusion in sideboard.
But Finn, how can this deck support 2 wipe away when we have already 3cc drops ( 4 reejereys for sure and 2-3 thrashers depending on personal choices) ? 8-9 3cc drops become too heavy to be supported, imo. Not to count that having such an elevate number of "expensive" cards ( in mana terms ofc) may prevent us from wastelanding opponent's lands , or, on the contrary, may throw us in mana screw if we have wastelanded and we draw the cards above.Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn
@kilukru: great proposal, i already saw annul and always liked the card, but i really don't know what i could cut for that card, my bad... but annul would be useful against :
-enchantress
-dreadnought
- mm..stompy/stax decks ? i don't think.. if chalice lands- and it lands always @1 for first- annul is pretty a dead card. Perhaps here, echoing truth is >>. Perhaps i'm thinking that Etruth is more versatile in all the situations... mm got to think about it.
Piceli, I look at it this way - if there is a permanent we NEED to be rid of, it is probably a game breaker. I don't want an Jitte counters or Counterbalance shenanigans preventing me from removing it.
The only problem is that Echoing Truth's ability to remove all copies makes it so much better. I know that when I used to run 2 maindeck I would always have situations where I would EOT bounce double goyf, my turn Standstill. The same applies for pesky enchantments like Ghostly Prison, or even Warrens goblin tokens. Wipe away is good, but generally against decks with Counterbalance we have a Vial out or a LoA and can Islandwalk them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn
Hey guys, just wanted to check in, see how the decks rolling, see if anyone has any ideas for SB against RGW Zoo? The deck has been giving me a truckload of problems for quite a while now. I am only running 2x chill in my sb, and even with more I just don't see how to beat them. The main problems are Wild Nacatl and Goyf, who isn't too much of a problem, but still swings for 2 most of the time. They have burn for your lords, green creatures to get past chill, and Stp. Normally this deck might not have a chance, but I have run into this deck a crapload of times at magic-league, and even got scrubbed in the trial by this deck. Thats not even the end of my problems, as someone plays it IRL in my local Legacy tournament! Ridiculous!
Yikes. This is probably our worst matchup actually, as most of their creatures can chump yours or outright kill them, and they don't have islands for us to unblockable kill them. I would suggest running 3 Jittes in your sideboard, and probably Echoing Truth over Kira (good to set up a Standstill). I might actually go more heavily into mana denial if you can tune your deck towards it (Tidal Warrior, a couple ports, 4th Stifle) just to keep them off 2/3 Apes or 3/3 Nacatyl.Quote:
Originally Posted by ssilver
T is for Tool, thank you for deleting all that shit.
I would say that Zoo is about as bad as it gets.
Phoenix, you make a decent point. Sure, Truth has its benefits. Frankly, I like Repeal even more at times. It is going to be a judgment call no matter what with the environment so varied.
I am seriously going to be testing a 61 card list. It seems the least painful way to go.
Phyrexian Dreadnought seems like it would be good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Phoenix Ignition
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn
The big downside with Repeal is that it can't bounce Tombstalker and have a hard time with Humility/Moat etc.