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Re: Prices. They drove me out.
In the economic supply/demand model, there are indeed some people who would be interested in the product, but only at price points below the current market equilibrium. It's one of the 4 arms of the "X" on the supply/demand graph:
The others:
People who would be interested in buying even at higher prices
Suppliers who would be interested in selling even at lower prices.
Suppliers who would have been interested in selling if the price was higher.
Wizards, by setting case prices and distribution, indirectly determines (much of) the supply curve.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I'd like to rebut some of the arguments made in here.
Legacy is so expensive compared to Standard
Right now, the cost to build a top Standard deck is very expensive due to the Mythics involved. I saw somewhere that the cost was about $800. Many Legacy decks can be built for less than this cost, and you cards never rotate out, so you can play your old deck right up until the DCI Announcements and STILL have them be worth money, instead of selling them 6 months in advance to cash out.
But, it's ridiculous how expensive both formats have gotten, I will agree.
Magic has gotten really expensive!
Yes, it has. Demand for older cards has increased over the past 1-2 years, so the prices will go up as there is more demand, and the same/less supply.
Why has this happened? Why have Legacy staples, and cards in general jumped in the past little while? Tell me, Matt!
As I said before, demand has increased over the past few years for Legacy Staples, so the prices have increased. But, the prices have increased every year, it's just that in the past year the prices have jumped. This is partly due to SCG holding the Open Tournaments for Legacy, which causes a bunch of people to be interested in the format. As well, it doesn't hurt that SCG profits very well from this boom, as I'm sure they had a ton of Legacy staples sitting around for a long while.
It's also due to excessive price gouging. Many people are just charging infinite on cards because there are people who will pay way overvalue just to have the card they want.
Another reason why some cards have jumped is due to Mythic rarity, which has caused the "chase rare" to become the "chase Mythic." The problem? The good card that everyone wants to play is now more rare than it used to be. I remember Chrome Mox during Mirrodin block was still very expensive for its time. But, it was a rare: you had an equal chance of getting it like any other rare in Mirrodin.
Nowadays, everyone needs Jace TMS or the like. The problem? Jace is now Mythic, meaning there are even less copies of him to be found, and they need to spread over the same amount or more players. This causes people wanting them more to pay more, and it leaves the kid on an allowance without Jaces. It doesn't help that Jace is the absolute nuts in every format, but if he were rare, he wouldn't be $70.
Has Mythic rarity really changed the marketscape?
I believe so. People looking for the ultra rare card have made most rares in the set, except for a few, completely worthless. Opening packs back in the day was at least somewhat profitable: some rares were jank, sure, but most were worth the price of the pack. Now, I feel like when I open packs I feel like I'm opening Arabian Nights boosters: hit big or lose out hard, which is really the way it shouldn't be for new sets, I think.
What has changed with pre-order pricing of Planeswalkers/Good cards? They're $50!
SCG doesn't want to miss out on potential profit if people are willing to pay $50 for a card that may or may not be good. SCG also controls a bunch of writers who say which card is good or isn't, which can also manipulate the market. But, it's all greed: no one wants to lose money they could have made, as it's lost potential profit. No one wants to be that sucker who sold their Baneslayer at $10, or their Tarmogoyf at $2.
Why are some prices so high? They don't seem good or aren't being used, or are good but are still high!
Good cards will command higher prices, but sometimes decent cards command ridiculous prices due to sheer rarity, buyer stupidity, or pure speculation. I'll go through each one, but first a background.
I think all of this hype about cards and their pricing go sky-high started with Tarmogoyf. The internet Magic arena was on its way, and more people were reading spoilers, checking prices online, and such. Tarmogoyf at first release was a $2-$5 card. As people started to profess how good it was, the price increased. Is Tarmogoyf good? Hell yes. But, the use of the internet pricing databases started a dangerous trend: every decent card started to shoot up in value due to hype, or just speculation. X card might be good in Y, so people buy them.
No one wants to miss out on the next best thing, and no one wants to buy a $20 card now for $40 later, so people buy it. This artificial demand causes the price to increase, and oh look, we have the situation of many P3K cards.
Rarity: Some cards are expensive due to rarity. P3K is an example of that, but some are playable as well. Grim Tutor is an example. It's not playable really, but still commands a premium because they people that have them aren't selling them for less than the price they're at now. I don't blame them, no one wants to lose.
Playability: Jace, Tarmogoyf, Dual Lands, etc. are very good playable cards, and therefore will command a high price. Couple playability with rarity, and you've got an expensive card.
Speculation: This one is starting to steam my clams. A card gets unbanned, no one wants to miss the train, and surprise: $30 Grim Monolith. It seems more and more people wait for the B/R announcement, then buy up every copy they can find and jack the price up. Same goes for Imperial Recruiter. It's a good card, it's rare, and it has speculation.
Heard about Anacott Steel? It's going to be a sure thing! Heard about Imperial Recruiter? It's going to take GP Columbus by storm! Did it? No. Did the price increase in expectation? Yes, by about $30.
We can solve all of these problems by getting rid of the reprint list, right?
Yes and no. More supply would help more players get the cards they need. It would be like if they released Jace TMS as a rare in Scar of Mirrodin. Yes, more people would have him, but if you just bought them at $70 and they dropped to $20, how would you feel? As long as you don't sell, you haven't lost money so long as you keep them, but you've lost potential value.
The same thing goes for the duals. They keep reprinting semi-functional reprints to help players out. Reprinting the original duals would be horrendous for those with those cards. I'm in favour of reprint so more people can play, but I'm not in favour because I'd lose out big to have other people play: it's a very stressful tightrope walk as to whether or not to increase supply, or to have more people play or not.
--------------------------------
In essence, Wizards has changed the rarity to make money, we've all become more greedy and speculative, and there's a lot more hoarding of supply going on. We're doing it to ourselves, in a way, and we're also being manipulated by large companies that have a lot to gain, ex. SCG. Until we decide not to pay, it'll be hard to stop. The problem? Magic is a Want, people want to do it, and because of this want, people will pay to pay.
I'm hoping you've all found this an intelligent discussion, and hopefully we can discuss.
-Matt
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I feel like the breaking point is coming very soon. I'm seeing more and more people expressing outright anger with the current model WotC are following.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
majikal
I feel like the breaking point is coming very soon. I'm seeing more and more people expressing outright anger with the current model WotC are following.
We can only hope, but I dont see how. There will always be people that will buy cards like Jace no matter what the price.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Well, luckily Legacy will most likely not die out, more like wither away into the realm of formats that noone cares about, like Vintage.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
paK0
Well, luckily Legacy will most likely not die out, more like wither away into the realm of formats that noone cares about, like Vintage.
But who would want to play Standard or Extended?!
Let's play with new cards that are overpriced and rotate out eventually. . .and for the most part blow. . .
or let's play with fun cards like Crucible of Worlds, Humility, Standstill. . .
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Neuad
But who would want to play Standard or Extended?!
Let's play with new cards that are overpriced and rotate out eventually. . .and for the most part blow. . .
or let's play with fun cards like Crucible of Worlds, Humility, Standstill. . .
You know that is exactly what people thought about years ago, only then the fun cards were called Ancestral Recall, Black Lotus and Mana Drain.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
sdematt
mini article
Good stuff, I think you've summarized most of the issues discussed in this 45 page thread. You deserve a virtual cookie.
Grim Monolith is one of the best examples of Legacy idiocy.
I agree that reprints won't do too much in the long run - Jace is in print and still commands $70+.
I have no evidence to back this up, but I suspect the perceptions of "unfairness" plague this format more than card availability. 10, 15 proxy Vintage is dirt cheap to play. We may think Crucible, Humility are "fun" cards but one man's treasure is another man's junk. The only thing we can do is get more people to sit down, play a match or 2, and come to their own conclusions.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Plague Sliver
I agree that reprints won't do too much in the long run - Jace is in print and still commands $70+.
Minor correction - Jace is *not* in print. I'm pretty sure WWK has been out of print since M11 came out, but is probably still relatively widely available.
Though they're not running out of product at release like they did with M10 and ZEN, Wizards still doesn't have the printing capacity to completely meet demand, especially outside of North America. As far as I know they're only printing two sets at a time right now for the most part.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Do you guys think Wizards would profit from printing singles? Say Jace singles for 30 bucks a pop. Sort of like dual decks, but even less work. Don't make them foil, or alternate art or anything. . .just a plain ol' Jace, The Mind Sculpter single for 30 bucks.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Plague Sliver
I have no evidence to back this up, but I suspect the perceptions of "unfairness" plague this format more than card availability. 10, 15 proxy Vintage is dirt cheap to play. We may think Crucible, Humility are "fun" cards but one man's treasure is another man's junk. The only thing we can do is get more people to sit down, play a match or 2, and come to their own conclusions.
This is a good idea, just last week I was playing Lands vs. New Horizons at a local EDH event and people said things along the lines of "Wow, that Legacy game wasn't over in the 2nd turn!" The only problem is entry fee in my opinion, after people see two somewhat fun decks playing each other they want to try but no one wants to pay an average of 30$ a card x 60 cards to find out if they really do like Legacy.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Tell them to watch lands vs lands if they find combo and goblins to be too speedy.
God I wanted to shoot myself just watching that matchup.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Neuad
Tell them to watch lands vs lands if they find combo and goblins to be too speedy.
God I wanted to shoot myself just watching that matchup.
Lands vs. Lands can be over in several turn cycles...
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Well the one time I saw it happen was at a GPT. . .and they were in turns on game1.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Neuad
Well the one time I saw it happen was at a GPT. . .and they were in turns on game1.
How did they not deck themselves through Loam? And how did neither of them get the Mindslaver lock?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I don't know. It was my first major tournament about a month after starting magic so I didn't know alot
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
xTrainx
How did they not deck themselves through Loam? And how did neither of them get the Mindslaver lock?
Possibly some well timed Bojuka Bog action, or they were both using Smokestack sans Mindslaver. It's feasible for this kind of thing to happen, although not entirely common.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Has anyone else noticed the price hike on Moat?
Last few English copies sold for $225+ on Ebay, and SCG is out of them at 300$ (which is retarded, but hey)...
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
That's one of those cards that I kept wondering why it hadn't gone up severely anyway. Moat is pretty stupid good, always has been and it's only in Legends. I always thought it was too low, especially when you compare it to today's stuff.
There's a bunch of cards like that. Rishadan Port is the one that comes to mind most. Why is this card not extremely expensive now? It's hard to find, from a set no one bought much of, and incredibly hard to pack from boosters. I always thought it should be in the $100 range by now.
I can think of a few more, that should be stupid expensive later.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Don't get me started on Moat. This is the problem with people making posts like the one just made, and please sir, don't take offense:
Quote:
KindGrind
Has anyone else noticed the price hike on Moat?
Last few English copies sold for $225+ on Ebay, and SCG is out of them at 300$ (which is retarded, but hey)...
This makes people think that the new price of Moat is now $225, and that SCG sold their Moats at $300, and they don't have anymore. I could say I'm sold out of Moats at $500, which is true: my price for Moats is $500, and well look in my binder, I don't have any more Moats at that price. Oh noes!
A few Moats have gone that high, one being a nice one from a reputable seller, and one being a bidding war between two people. This doesn't mean that the new price is suddenly the overinflated price created by a few ended auctions.
Most sales of Moats have been about 180 for English, and about 135-145 for Italian. I'm not saying that Ebay doesn't necessarily reflect current value, it reflects what SOME people are willing to pay in an auction format for a card, not what the general consensus of the community is on how much a card is considered to be worth; There is a large distinction between these two events.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
There's a bunch of cards like that. Rishadan Port is the one that comes to mind most. Why is this card not extremely expensive now? It's hard to find, from a set no one bought much of, and incredibly hard to pack from boosters. I always thought it should be in the $100 range by now.
I can think of a few more, that should be stupid expensive later.
Because its only played in Lands and Goblins? Because its only played in 1 format? Because it was in a set that had way larger print run than Legends? etc, etc...
Port already jumped quite high in price - infact 6 months or so ago it almost doubled its price.
It can go higher, reaching that "stupid expensive" status, if that new "overextended" format happens and Port doesn't get reprinted along the way.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
majikal
Possibly some well timed Bojuka Bog action, or they were both using Smokestack sans Mindslaver. It's feasible for this kind of thing to happen, although not entirely common.
Typically, the matchup breaks down where:
One person plays manabond (they win)
One person plays manabond and the other color-screws them out.
One person gets loam online earlier
The mirror is one of the fastest game-1s around.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mchainmail
Typically, the matchup breaks down where:
One person plays manabond (they win)
One person plays manabond and the other color-screws them out.
One person gets loam online earlier
The mirror is one of the fastest game-1s around.
As I said, feasible but not common.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
@sdematt
(I'm referring to English Moats)
Of course, the sold out at 300$ thing means absolutely nothing. The sole fact that it's listed there at that price makes me cringe, which is why I was poiting it out. In this day and age you would think people would look around, shop more and stop buying things too high, but it seems it's not the case.
I still see a tendency on Moat. I've been holding onto mine for a long while, checking around periodically if it lost value or was on the rise, as it's a card I really like. At the beginning of the summer english Moats could be had for 130-140$. If it were only one auction at 200+ I wouldn't even be mentioning it, but 5 different ones last week ended at 200$ish, which is definitely higher than a few months ago. Whether this is the actual value of the card is indeed another question, but it seems these days people don't mind paying more for it than they used to.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
currently on ebay:
Daze foil playset at 123$, still bidding
Daze foil single, 51$ BIN
unreal. I mean, a foil common goes almost at the same price of a dual? what the heck happened to the price of those???
i'm so happy i just got 2x last week valued at 16 eur each.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
This is indeed worrying. What next ? Invasion ramping prices ? Looks like we have a 10 years sliding window in which, when a set falls in, make the price skyrocket.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kiblast
There's so little supply, it's irrelevant... if several people really want them, they'll pay whatever they need to for them.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I fail to understand how foil commons became a "necessity".
I do agree that certain older cards have climbed very quickly, likely due to EDH in no small part. Also to do with niche cards such as Loyal Retainers (thank Iona for that).
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
The price of Daze is so ridiculous because Masques block wasn't exactly very popular and wasn't drafted as much. This was also after the big fallout of Urza's block too so you had less people playing and an underpowered block.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Amon Amarth
The price of Daze is so ridiculous because Masques block wasn't exactly very popular and wasn't drafted as much. This was also after the big fallout of Urza's block too so you had less people playing and an underpowered block.
Add to the fact that there were fewer foils per box at that time. I cracked a box of Nemesis a few months ago and only got a handful of foils and no rare foil.
I recently traded away my foil Dazes . . . I'm too nervous that they'll just make more foil Daze in some other form and then the prices will drop on the older ones. Part of the problem is not just that Nemesis ones are comparatively scarce, it's also – I believe – the only Daze foil (i.e. no promos were made).
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Foils were actually easy as hell to get from Masques. There was a problem in production with that set. I remember going to the pre-release and the head judge got up and told people if they got an all foil pack to call a judge and they would give you a different one for the sealed deck. There were literally all foil packs and all foil booster boxes. I saw quite a few. I guess it was balanced out a little bit by the lack of foils in the regular boxes. I think it was a 6:1 ratio. Only surpassed by Coldsnap for "tough to pack foils".
Amon is right, Urza's block drove people away in droves especially from Vintage. There was a seriously stupid deck at the time that was for all intents and purposes unbeatable. It got banned out of existence pretty quickly, but the damage was done. Then after the super power of Tinker in Standard and the Masturbator in vintage (blame Chapin for the name), we got Rebels and Mercenaries. Ummmm, yeah...
It was far from being awesome. Not many people bought that set at all from the lot that was leftover from being bashed into the ground by Academy decks.
The Dazes are just in serious demand and well, let's face it, can you imagine how bad a Daze is in Limited? Yeah, it's serious crap. Who wants a force spike in limited? We tended to trash cards back then quite a bit. Maybe not as bad as we trashed on beta and alpha, but we tossed many a card and turned plenty of Masques into cardboard airplanes. that was about the time period of the end of Ante also. Iron man destroyed a few by itself.
I can't count how many Dazes I tore up. I still had tons in my commons boxes when it started becoming popular in Legacy again. I don't think many people realize how many cards would have been lost to getting trashed during that time due to us older players and how we ripped them up when we hated the card. It happened more than you think. foils were also kind of crappy still. We compared it to Pokemon foils. Pretty, but nothing most people would actually play with.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
I don't think many people realize how many cards would have been lost to getting trashed during that time due to us older players and how we ripped them up when we hated the card. It happened more than you think. foils were also kind of crappy still. We compared it to Pokemon foils. Pretty, but nothing most people would actually play with.
Hahaha, it always makes me laugh to think about all the cards I've destroyed in this manner over the years. I used to peel the stickers off of foil cards, too. I remember when Urza's Legacy came out and being like, "What the fuck is this shiny crap? I can't play with this!" And somehow I kept packing Pygmy Pyrosaur foils, which just added to my rage.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
majikal
Hahaha, it always makes me laugh to think about all the cards I've destroyed in this manner over the years. I used to peel the stickers off of foil cards, too. I remember when Urza's Legacy came out and being like, "What the fuck is this shiny crap? I can't play with this!" And somehow I kept packing
Pygmy Pyrosaur foils, which just added to my rage.
Pygmy Pyrosaur was my first foil; I was 12 and I pulled it out of the only UL pack I ever bought so I thought it was really special. I never knew anyone who played ironman Magic or anything; when you're a poor middle school kid every card in your collection is valuable even if it's useless.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I'm pretty sure i have a foil Daze or two. I just hated foils back then (and now) and just gave them all away typically, but i'm sure i have one or two left
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Parax
I'm pretty sure i have a foil Daze or two. I just hated foils back then (and now) and just gave them all away typically, but i'm sure i have one or two left
parax, you have a PM
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Octopusman
Speaking of price creep, a $23 black T shirt? Fuck that noise.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Meekrab
Speaking of price creep, a $23 black T shirt? Fuck that noise.
My thoughts exactly.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
necro'ed just to inform you that here in Italy something really weird is going on: prices for various vintage staples, such as P9s and Drains, fell A LOT in comparison with older market/ebay.com prices.
I don't know if this is happening only here...but I have been told that recently, at Lucca's comics and games convention (the biggest we have in Italy with thousands of people attending), 150 eur Minty Risucchia potere (italian legends Drains) playset were left unsold. Also Mox ruby going for 80eur (roughly 110 usd) and other moxen ranging from 100 to 250 eur (130-280 usd)....i'm talking of course of unlimited. Strange, isn't it?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Was looking at some cards tonight, how the hell has stoneforge mystic ticked up to 10 dollars on SCG? Abyssal persecutor is ticking up as well, are these played alot somewhere i'm not seeing?
