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4 SnapcasterQuote:
Originally Posted by fluuu
4 Counterbalance
4 Ponder
4 Terminus
4 Brainstorm
4 Plow
2 Counterspell
2 Spell Snare
4 Force of Will
2 Predict
2 JTMS
4 Top
1 Mountain
4 Island
1 Volc
1 Plains
4 Flooded Strand
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Arid Mesa
3 Tundra
SB:
3 Flusterstorm
2 Vendilion Clique
2 Meddling Mage
1 Monastery Mentor
1 Blood Moon
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Wear//Tear
3 Pyroblast
This is the list he played at that event.
I remember playing Predict...card was sweet, but I eventually dismissed it as just a grindy card. I didn't like that I couldn't float a card with it and how it had a decently high chance of being dead, with an upside of "draw 2".
Is it actually better than Ancestral Visions?
I've got a foil playset, so I'd love this to be the new secret tech ;)
In short, yes. Miracles real weakness is that we never could gain actual card advantage without cutting into the construction of our decks. Predict let's us do that, and since the quality of our cards are so relatively more powerful than anything else in legacy, when we draw cards more than we're used to, it's nearly backbreaking. Especially since it appears as if we're heading into a slightly more grindy metagame than in the past, but metagame predicting (heh...) is difficult with little-to-no events actually occurring.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cipher
Predict is excellent, and I, Mackan, and AnziD cannot recommend it enough. Usually resolving it once will put us extremely far ahead of any grindy deck just because our cards are better. See Mackan's original post about it, and you'll have more examples of how amazing it is.
I currently play 3 Ponder. Would you suggest/recommend cutting 1 for 1 Predict? I don't think I'll ever move to an ETA-less Miracles list so take that into account.
I think Ponder is still stronger than Predict. Mzfroste switched to 2 Ponder/2 Predict (in testing I assume), so take that for what you will. Also, streaming the 6pm EST daily at www.twitch.tv/anzi104 w/ Predictable Miracles. Come watch the deck in action!Quote:
Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual
I ran this list ( http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...p?DeckID=95698 ) prior to trying out predict. I moved the mentors to the side, cut Bloodmoon from the deck entirely, moved the Entreat back to the main, and finally cut a ponder to make room for the 2 predicts. The idea was that the point of drawing more cards was that the cards we were drawing were good at trading recourses with our opponent, so I didn't want to cut any counter magic or removal. Swapping the 2 mentors for 1 Entreat made room for 1 predict while leaving the deck with a "strong" wincon. Mentor was always at its weakest game 1 anyways, when our opponents have most of their removal, so it seems like a reasonable decision. Cutting the Ponder for the second predict was tough. T1 Ponder into T2 Predict is a nice curve, and ponder in general makes a lot of marginal hands keepable. I'm still not sure it was the right decision, and that I should instead cut a Jace, but I look at it as how many role players do I have. Top, Brainstorm, and my last 2 ponders are our card selection, and make hands keepable. You generally want to have atleast 1 of them in every opener. Jace and Entreat, and to a lesser extent mentor, is what allows us to outmuscle our opponent. I figured it better to go from 11 to 10 on card selection instead of going from 4 to 3 of muscle cards. Then again, we are so good at going over the top of our opponent once we've found the right cards, maybe card selection is just that important that the 3rd ponder is that necessary. The easiest way to figure this out is more testing, and so far the deck has done well in this build, but if I start noticing a trend of more mulls, then I'll have to consider putting the ponder back in.
The predict deck is very interesting, it is a good way to get an edge in the mirror and other grindy matchups without compromising the delver matchups.
I tested the deck, admittedly very little, and found that I feel weak in matchups where counterbalance isn't good. I almost managed to lose a match to zombardment after realizing that I have no feasible way to win game one. I think I need to test it more and get used to how it plays, but I think that finding space for a single entreat could be worthwhile moving forward. However, entreat presents the problem of needing double white which makes cutting the second plains more difficult. Maybe it is alright to compromise those weird matchups, but one thing that has always been attractive about miracles is that you can win every game against every deck.
Also, this isn't the biggest deal but with only one plains I've been sweating bullets against lands.
After a little more testing if I still feel the same way about the deck I'm going to try:
-2 spell snare
+1 plains
+ 1 entreat
and maybe,
-1 ponder
+1 jtms
Also, good job getting the discussion quality up, the last 10 pages had been pretty dark.
Extremely valid suggestion! I don't think I'd cut the ponder for the third Jace, and it's likely fine to go down to 3 snapcaster if you're gonna go with the 21 land 3 Jace build. I think we're all working with 20 land atm just due to how clean the deck feels, but it's definitely an idea to try out!Quote:
Originally Posted by Moa
You're probably right about the ponder if I want a third jace it probably isn't the right cut. I agree that the full predict deck has felt great with 20 lands, I just believe that the second plains is the significant cost of doing business with EtA.Quote:
Originally Posted by Minniehajj
Predict has been a pretty exciting card as a relatively direct response to the rise of shardless. The card is our analogue to ancestral visions, but requires less setup and plays very well with top as a pseudo shuffle effect. How are you guys siding with this deck against shardless. With a significant increase in the amount of card advantage we can generate I believe that, once again, it is worth discussing leaving in counterbalance and overloading on decay targets.
Specifically, looking at the board you recently posted:
3 Flusterstorm
2 Vendilion Clique
2 Meddling Mage
1 Monastery Mentor
1 Blood Moon
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Wear//Tear
3 Pyroblast
I belive I would want 2 clique, 2 meddling mage, 1 mentor, 1 moon, and 1-2 wear//tear. Historically we've boarded in pyroblasts as a concession to visions, but as I understand it the new game plan is trying to go tit-for-tat with visions. Assuming we cut force, then there are still 3-4 cards left to cut. Especially with this board of 2x meddling mage I would feel better about leaving counterbalance in. Spell snare is a potential cut on the play, but the presence of hymn makes it difficult to pull the trigger on that. Perhaps the answer is to shave 1-2 cb, 1 swords, and maybe a snare, but that feels very middle of the road. The gameplan woud essentially be keep the board clear, land a meddling mage on decay, and play a moon or counterbalance to lock it up.
streaming @ twitch.tv/anzi104
come catch my misplays!
EDIT: There's some analysis at the end of the video today that I'd like some feedback on - it's kind of slow so you'd have to be patient in watching it, but if there is feedback, I'd love to hear it. If anything it could be a topic to discuss here. One of the topics was analyzing the kind of action that flashing in VClique EOT is and the other topic was evaluating Jace vs CB in low-resources game states.
Predict CRUSHES GBx decks, including shardless. Secondly, I'm not leaving in Counterspells in the matchup at all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moa
How does it crush GBx decks? Because we draw 2 (net 1) rather than crantrip?Quote:
Originally Posted by Minniehajj
LOL, exactly.Quote:
Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual
Say Shardless has resolved Liliana/Jace already, you don't have CB or your own planeswalker. Sure, you draw 2 cards instead of 1 using Predict, still doesn't changed the fact that Shardless is way ahead. Let's not kid ourselves here, Predict is no Dig, not even close.
Let me be clear here, I ain't hating on Predict. The credit of putting Predict in Miracles should go to Reid Duke, as seen here: http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=7584&d=243519&f=LE
He was running 1 Predict as early as June of 2014, that's before GP NJ. If he's running it, can't be that bad. Maybe Joe has tried one Predict even earlier. People have been there and done that in the past, but the conclusion appeared to be running 1 Predict is ok, but definitely not something that can change the board state when you're behind.
Try to win against G/b Post -.-
Predict has also been played in past countertop lists including bug and 4c Landstill lists since forever, it's not like it's super-secret tech or anything. It's good, just not untested.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIeuJ9xHUWo
https://youtu.be/VIeuJ9xHUWo
Here's a sample of Reid Duke playing Miracles with 1 Predict. He managed to draw Predict all 3 games against Shardless BUG. Let's see how crushing it is.
Game 1: makes no difference.
Game 2: you could argue that he would not be able to find the out if he didn't actually filter the top 3 cards by putting 1 in grave and actually draw 2. I would argue that he didn't understand his opponent's out. He realized it after the fact that he could have take away the Pulse out by keeping StP and another card to feed Liliana. To me that's the actual difference, not Predict, he didn't have that much of a library by the time he cast the card.
Game 3: Predict actually makes a substantial difference. Reid decided to ride Clique to victory here. How often is that the case for Miracles? I would say pretty often. If you run Karakas, it's probably gonna happen. I sometimes ride a hate bear like canonist to victory as well.
bonus
https://youtu.be/aO8xduPWpLA
Game 3 against Omni-tell: Reid actually came up with an rare line such that he could use Predict as an insurance back-up policy. I don't think it's possible unless you've been playing Predict for a while.
Can someone explain me the sense of Baneslayer Angel?
Thanks
Baneslayer is good in a grindy meta. Strong against BUG decks, DnT (though good luck having enough mana to cast her), and random creature decks you might encounter. But since we're so good at dealing with creatures anyway, it's not really worth the 5 mana. She can blank Gdaddy, but SnS will often go for Sneak against us anyway so you'll never get her on the field.
As I thought. It doesn't make sense.
Against SnS the best draw possible is Priest
Against BuG I just plan for Pyroclasm/Mentor and anyway they play Stufle/Wasteland
Against DnT.... 5 mana non-flash spell? Just overwin then
I would think of MUD but anyway.. Snap + Tear are way better
A singleton predict in regular miracles shell is meh. 2 Predicts in a shell built to abuse it, a low land count, and snapcaster mage, is really really really good.Quote:
Originally Posted by twndomn
Have you considered cutting Jace for Mentor in this list?
The more you dilute the library manipulation engine (adding Predict, cutting Entreat, etc.) the more it seems like you lean on deck velocity. Mentor seems like a better payoff card in this scenario. Jace isn't great at setting up counterbalance and got a lot of his power from Entreat the Angels, and the traits you just mentioned that make Predict good all synergize with Mentor.
I guess my logic is that the original Miracles began as a prison-style control deck, which didn't actually draw extra cards but generated a lot of virtual card advantage through Counterbalance soft-locks and floating Terminus. In the "harder" matchups (the ones where Terminus is dead), there might be a point where your deck has replaced so many interactive spells with cantrips that you're better off clocking combo than putting a lock together with Jace. Just looking at a list with only 4 Snapcaster, the matchup against things like Storm/Show and Tell seems difficult. Of course, I've always been biased towards those matchups, which is why I maindeck Cliques and took forever to stop running Spell Pierce.
streaming again with predictable miracles! sideboard changed slightly. come watch at twitch.tv/anzi104
So how do I board against lands, and what is a general strategy to employ for the matchup? Is there a post from another page you could refer me to if this question has been recently posed? Thanks for your time and effort.
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Stage 1: Deflecting tutor effect while looking for CounterbalanceQuote:
Originally Posted by Secretly.A.Bee
Do not allow the Land opponent to find Loam via Gamble, or Crop rotate for quick 20/20 ambush. This should not happen at the early stage of the game. If they happen to just have Loam in their opening, try to find your CB ASAP. This is urgent because Lands will try to apply lockdown via Port and Wastes, even if we are fetching Basic lands. If Land’s locking happens too soon because they have an explosive start, it’s not always easy to find the free UU/fetch to land your CB.
Stage 2: Protect your White source
Once you've passed stage 1, from Land’s perspective, they’ll just try to tap down your White sources, then make 20/20 token at your EoT. Hence it’s important to leave a fetchland intact, but that’s not even certain because they can Stage-copy for more Ports. When you’re certain that you have locked out Crop rotate, Loam, and maybe Crucible in some builds, you can go for Angels or Jace.
Keep in mind, it’s almost 99% certain that Lands will SB-in Abrupt Decay for our Rest in Peace. I tried to SB-in Snapcasters And Rest in Peace, which has actually worked out quite well. We don’t necessarily have to put RiP into play if we don’t see Loam or PFire engine.
As far as SB, I like the overload approach, overload Decay targets. You need the CB and float 2 to shutdown Loam and PFire. You would also anticipate Lands trying to blow you out with Choke.
+1 ~ +2 RiP - self explanatory
+1 ~ +2 Disenchant or Wear//Tear - Choke/Crucible in some builds/Chalice/Sphere of Amethyst
+1 Clique - Timely Clique can get rid of Loam, also emergency 20/20 blocker
+1 Needle - Shutdown Port or Stage
What to take out depending on which Miracles build. To start, I would take out at least 1 JtmS. Landing a JtmS early doesn't mean much, and you expose yourself to Choke. The key is still about denying the Loam engine early game while you look for your CB-T lock. Jace also doesn't help if you're trying to free yourself from Port lock, or you suspect you're about to get 20/20 ambushed.
So is Blood Moon not good here or am I the only one still running it?
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I play it because while it doesn't hose BUG and managreedy decks (ie Lands, Loam) decks, it definitely helps. It just feels bad when you turn off your own fetches so you should bring in more creatures. Basically, we turn into the aggressor if that card lands since we need to kill them before they can remove it.
It's not a bad idea at all, but the issue with cutting down to 1 Jace is that..well, it's Jace. We have a lot more velocity, sure, but when you're looking at cards that "turn the corner" so to speak, I'd rather play Jace than mentor, especially since Jace just draws you more cards forever. We've tried moving the 4th snapcaster to the board and having 1 mentor main, and it works out just fine that way. We've reverted back to the 4 snapcasters main overall, but doing that change is something that you can for sure do if you're worried about not having a decent payoff card. I wouldn't cut the Jace though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cipher
Unfortunately I don't think that's an option. Yes, by playing cheaper draw spells you can lean more on deck's velocity but I don't think that the potential increase in velocity equates to the power drop you sacrifice when you swap out Jace for Mentor. Mentor is extremely vulnerable compared to Jace and doesn't have any of the added benefits, like being able to reset Terminus, etc. Jace is definitely a better "control" card then Mentor. I think if this deck played Mentor over Jace it would have to function more similarly like Mentor Miracles, though I could be wrong about that. If you get a chance to test it out, I'm curious to know how it performs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cipher
RE: Clocking combo - I don't really agree with this point. I think G1 the other "interactive spells" (Clique? Spell Pierce?) are not as powerful as the lock as most combo decks are resilient enough to pummel through a few pieces of hate but not through the CT lock that recurs every turn. Additionally the "interactive spells" are not great against the rest of the field either. Assuming these are correct, I'd rather just have more pieces of the lock or ways to find them. Also clocking combo is not so great because the time you spend developing your clock is time you're spending not preparing for their combo, which gives the combo player the advantage when they go off.
I don't understand the interactive spells; may you be specific, which interactive spells are not great against the rest of the field? Spell Snare?Quote:
Originally Posted by AnziD
Let's be specific here. In other words, you prefer to not clocking combo (storm, sneak and show) with Clique or Snapcaster, and you rather "prepare" for their combo. If I were the Sneak and Show player, I would sculpt my hand using cantrips until I can find Boseiju (yes, some MD them as well as SB), since you're not putting threats on the table.
Feel free to clarify.
My reasoning was that in the majority of games where I don't open with Counterbalance + Top, Jace v. Mentor means I can either:Quote:
Originally Posted by AnziD
1) play Jace on turn 4, and Brainstorm + play cantrips over the next few turns to find Counterbalance.
or
2) Play Mentor on 3 and play attack + play cantrips to kill them in a few turns.
I'm assuming that Mentor would kill them before Jace would set the combo up, on average. I don't know whether that's actually true, hence the disclaimer. Jace also functions as a "bad Top" in some scenarios where you have Counterbalance, so there's also that.
Really, I was just looking for more payoff cards that can turn games around where you have low resources. Miracles originally had 10 of these (4, CB, 4 Jace, 2 Entreat), and now Ponder lists have gone down to 8 and you as low as 6. Predict is kind of a incremental value card that opens up on the third turn, similar to Snapcaster; Divination isn't much of a payoff. Just re-reading that, I guess it would be stupid to cut Jaces for Mentors, and Snapcaster would make more sense.
Two nitpicks:Quote:
Originally Posted by Cipher
1. Mentor is a payoff card, but it is only when you aren't low on resources.
2. It sounds like you just shouldn't play the predict version based on how you want your games to play out. If you want more payoff cards in your list, the obvious cuts from the predict version are the predicts themselves. The somewhat standard 2 mentor euro build is completly fine and you can continue playing it.
All that said, I've felt really good playing the predict list -2 snare +1 plains +1 ETA. I unfortunately learned how good predict can be in a match on MODO with grixis delver when predict bugged with wear//tear and only gave me one card and 10 turns later I needed one more card to turn the corner. Also lol, we've gotten x2 predict up to 30% on mtggoldfish.
How many Miracles players here board out some amount of removal vs. Reanimator? I was told that Miracles often boards out some number of StP at least, and I was wondering how true this is.
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Take out all white cards against reanimator, rely on fighting on the stack.Quote:
Originally Posted by Secretly.A.Bee
That would be mzfrozte's good work, also part of our discussion group (along with Mackan and AnziD) =P.Quote:
Originally Posted by Moa
Agreed with all of your points here, especially number 2.
Predict leads to a more controlly build of miracles, especially if you're planning on building around and abusing the card.
For the third point, (you're change) I like it, but after playing with snare in this build I think I'd miss it too much overall. Haven't found ourselves needing ETA a lot, since our sideboard hedges against the matchups where we missed the ETA.
For the record, this is about what we're on atm:
4 Snapcaster
4 Counterbalance
4 Ponder
4 Terminus
4 Brainstorm
4 Plow
2 Counterspell
2 Spell Snare
4 Force of Will
2 Predict
2 JTMS
4 Top
1 Mountain
4 Island
2 Volc
1 Plains
4 Flooded Strand
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Arid Mesa
3 Tundra
SB:
1 Blood Moon
2 Pyroblast
1 REB
2 Clique
1 Mentor
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Wear//Tear
2 Surgical
3 Flusterstorm
The sideboard is pretty flexible, and where all of us vary the most in, but the biggest necessity in the sideboard is to "fix" the matchups where we miss ETA and the second basic plains, without conceding too many percentage points to the way the deck is constructed.
Hey,Quote:
Originally Posted by Secretly.A.Bee
I'd say that an overwhelming majority of experienced Miracle players will not have any removal left vs Reanimator. But there's more to it than just saying that white cards are bad here.
The mindset of not having white cards left is closely interconnected with the idea of beating their most likely 60 cards with the highest amount of reliability. This means that a transition away from removal and towards more counterspells, red blasts and flash creatures is very well suited when you're fighting against Reanimator as you'd expect it to behave: Reanimate+Show and Tell. There's no question about it that removal spells are very bad in this very scenario, which is due to two points. 1) Many cards do not allow you to perfectly assess the situation beforehand, just imagine Show and Tell. You don't really know which creature will enter the battlefield, therefore opening the possibility to draw a wrong conclusion based on your weak premises is a threat. 2) Dealing with Griselbrand once he entered the battlefield is no pleasure at all, no matter how many removal spells you have left in your deck. This is not a scenario you want to engage in with your white cards. Additionally, not all removal spells deal with each threat.
Now, it's not like white cards are bad by nature in this very match-up. They're not. Having Terminus to deal with Inkwell Leviathan or any removal to get rid of the new Jace or, god forbid, Pack rat is an enticing thought. It is therefore not wrong to have white cards left in your deck under one circumstance: You don't have more good cards in your sideboard, like Flusterstorm, Rest in Peace, Red Elemental Blast..., you get the idea. Most sideboards are built the way that a removal of all white cards + Plains (don't forget to board out that card) is beneficial due to the high amount of great cards in the sideboard that are better in most scenarios.
To summarize: White cards (Terminus in particular) are not bad. But most decks are constructed in such a way that they can incorporate superior cards that will allow them to win the majority of games more reliably while accepting to lose vs the occasional: Land+Lotus Petal --> Pack Rat while your hand consists of Flusterstorms and Red Elemental Blasts.
I hope this answered your question. If it didn't, just let me know.
Greetings
Try running From the Ashes instead. In exchange for one extra mana, you get an almost game-ending spell against anything that isn't running enough basics, and that can't be Decayed or Krosan Grip'd. My testing group has found it better in almost every situation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Secretly.A.Bee
Not this discussion again :mad:Quote:
Originally Posted by PhyrexianLibrarian
Anyway, I'm not going to do that (from the ashes). 4cmc is a lot for something not named Jace in my opinion.
@Einherjer: thank you for your time, that was illuminating. I now understand.
How important is it to play some number of Meddling Mage?
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Meddling mage is competing for the same slot as most other graveyard hate (not the same slot as Clique like popular opinion suggests). If you're more afraid of Sneak and Show and Storm, play meddling mage over anything else. Else, play surgical, RIP, relic, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Secretly.A.Bee
The reason for this is other gy based decks that we want hate for, like Lands, 4C Loam, Reanimator, can be attacked from different ways that are just as effective. For the first two, you can meddling mage, naming punishing fire (or molten vortex, the new tech, if it's not already in play), and for reanimator, we are extremely adept at fighting them on the stack. Consider meddling mage to be graveyard hate on legs. I personally am not running them, favoring surgical extraction since my group and I are playing 4 snapcaster mages. AnziD is still on 2 Meddling mage on that slot, etc.
Curious why you wouldn't name Loam with Meddling Mage?
I just redid my sideboard and almost put one in. I was thinking that whatever card I ran would have to synergize with Counterbalance and ended up going with Enlightened Tutor. Meddling Mage naming a combo piece, or Abrupt Decay/Krosan Grip if I have Counterbalance in play, was the other option.