All B/R update speculation.

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Originally Posted by Lord Seth

Statistically insignificant differences, to my knowledge, are only applicable when extrapolating numbers from a smaller representative sample, e.g. polls. We have data here that isn't really extrapolation, so "statistically insignificant" seems an irrelevant claim to make.

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Statistical significance is achieved when one is sure that the statistic is reliable. A compendium of statistics that includes Standard/Legacy Invitational finishes, groups Delver-less UWR Stoneforge decks with Patriot Delver, and doesn't include the majority of Legacy tournaments being played should not give one confidence that the statistic/difference is reliable and that the finding is statistically significant. It's still a form of extrapolation.

Further, if the wording were modified, and we accepted the numbers as accurate (and correlative to power), to something like "94.4% (well, 5.6%) is a marginal difference", would you be on board? Is Brainstorm's number reason enough to get it banned, while a number 94.4% of it isn't reason enough to get it banned? The person who originally used omnipresence as a reason for banning seems to have a low threshold, as he/she wants even Ponder banned.

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Originally Posted by Lord Seth

That's true. However, Brainstorm is still the bigger offender in terms of omnipresence and is less important in regards to stopping the format from being overrun by Goblin Charbelcher-esque decks.

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The claim seems to be that Brainstorm and Force have similar numbers, but Force is excused for the good things it does. But what about the good things Brainstorm does, like being an integral part of a wide swath of decks, encompassing almost every strategy imaginable? And what about the bad things Force does, like necessitating a deeper commitment to blue cards and similar shells, and providing a hedge against certain types of decks that other colors don't have? All of this must be taken into account.

Not a heck of a lot of decks splashing blue for just Brainstorm.

You say "he wants even Ponder banned" as if that was something unheard of. But it is already banned / restricted in Vintage and Modern. In fact it is a little curiosity that it isn't banned in Legacy because Legacy is in the "middle" of these two formats in terms of power levels. That might have format specific reasons but it is at the very least a good indicator of the powerlevel of the card. And, just as a reminder so that it doesn't get lost through the pages, I suggested a ban of Ponder alongside Brainstorm because the ban would give slight nerfs to a lot of problem cards, but I didn't say there are no alternatives like with Brainstorm. About FoW I think Megadeus put it nicely when he said "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card.".

Ok guys, this is serious. The US has already proven that they will accept nuclear missiles in the hands of North Korea. But news just got in and Kim Jong Un might have eventually crossed the line with the latest arrival to his WMD arsenal.

Wake up, America!

A ban is imminent of any of the following/or combination of cards:

1. Ponder
2. Brainstorm
3. Treasure Cruise

Once we start seeing maindeck Pyroblasts from non-Painter's Servant decks there's an ongoing water problem.

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Originally Posted by Julian23

Ok guys, this is serious. The US has already proven that they will accept nuclear missiles in the hands of North Korea. But news just got in and Kim Jong Un might have eventually crossed the line with the latest arrival to his WMD arsenal.

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So that's why cinemas banned the "The Interview"...

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Originally Posted by death

A ban is imminent of any of the following/or combination of cards:

1. Ponder
2. Brainstorm
3. Treasure Cruise

Once we start seeing maindeck Pyroblasts from non-Painter's Servant decks there's an ongoing water problem.

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I don't think this is true. While SB BEBs are slightly more distressing than the MD Red blasts themselves, they're ultimately no different than SB/MD Sylvan Safekeeper to protect creatures from removal. If everyone is playing URx, why not run cheap, versatile answers to URx? As others have pointed out, it's no different than people running StP or Bolt because the meta is full of creature decks.

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Originally Posted by Tao

You say "he wants even Ponder banned" as if that was something unheard of. But it is already banned / restricted in Vintage and Modern. In fact it is a little curiosity that it isn't banned in Legacy because Legacy is in the "middle" of these two formats in terms of power levels. That might have format specific reasons but it is at the very least a good indicator of the powerlevel of the card. And, just as a reminder so that it doesn't get lost through the pages, I suggested a ban of Ponder alongside Brainstorm because the ban would give slight nerfs to a lot of problem cards, but I didn't say there are no alternatives like with Brainstorm. About FoW I think Megadeus put it nicely when he said "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card.".

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Without getting into format specific reasons, what no one has done so far is make a compelling argument about why we should be nerfing the format's best consistency engines. Playing with blue mana sources is a pretty small price to pay to be able to play combo, aggro, control, midrange, tempo, or some combination thereof and have the decks actually work reliably. I really can't get my head around the argument that if nonblue decks can't have the best consistency tools, then no deck should have the best consistency tools.

As to those saying that some "lack of diversity" in the meta is causing a fall-off in format adoption, I'm pretty skeptical. While this might be true at the local level, the regular Legacy group at my LGS has definitely grown in the last few months, so there's at least one data point in the other direction. In addition, there was a massive collapse in the number of Vintage players in the wake of Brainstorm being banned, and several prominent Vintage players (Rich Shay probably being the most notable among them) have argued for its unbanning. While there were a few confounding factors like the end of SCG Power 9 tournaments, the initial falloff was well after that and much closer to the Brainstorm ban, and I was part of that initial wave. It wouldn't surprise me at all if a Brainstorm (or Ponder) ban had a similarly large negative impact on Legacy event attendance. It would be especially scary to have a ban come in the Fate Reforged B/R update because answering the attendance question would become considerably more difficult due to a lack of a baseline from the new SCG Open structure.

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Originally Posted by Tao

You say "he wants even Ponder banned" as if that was something unheard of. But it is already banned / restricted in Vintage and Modern. In fact it is a little curiosity that it isn't banned in Legacy because Legacy is in the "middle" of these two formats in terms of power levels. That might have format specific reasons but it is at the very least a good indicator of the powerlevel of the card. And, just as a reminder so that it doesn't get lost through the pages, I suggested a ban of Ponder alongside Brainstorm because the ban would give slight nerfs to a lot of problem cards, but I didn't say there are no alternatives like with Brainstorm. About FoW I think Megadeus put it nicely when he said "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card.".

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I'm enthusiastically co-signing "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card." and adding "No-one with a brain believes that Ponder is a problem card."

I don't accept this argument that the format is in decline as the prices of staples rocket to new highs every week.

You can't claim people are driven away from the format as it stands when a playset of Wastelands and FoWs costs i.e. more than the average American makes in a week. Note: I did not fact check this but it feels roughly right. I'm far enough away from the "average American" that I don't actually know how much she makes.

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Originally Posted by Meekrab

I don't accept this argument that the format is in decline as the prices of staples rocket to new highs every week.

You can't claim people are driven away from the format as it stands when a playset of Wastelands and FoWs costs i.e. more than the average American makes in a week. Note: I did not fact check this but it feels roughly right. I'm far enough away from the "average American" that I don't actually know how much she makes.

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Force of Will is $80 Low on TCG Player and Wasteland is $58. A playset of each will run you $552. $552 per week equals $28,704 per year (552*52).

According to the Census Bureau, the average income per year is $28,155. It's not clear if that's median, mean, or mode, but it's the average by some metric. Now, that is stated to be in 2013 dollars. Adjusted for inflation using CPI Inflation Calculator, that's currently $28,541.02.

So, a playset of Wastelands and Force of Wills does seem to be more than the average American makes in a week, although not by too much.

Always the same. A lot of guys with flawed arguments waiting for Brainstorm to get banned. Treasure Cruise ban is realistic, but everyone who hopes that Brainstorm will get the axe.... don't be too sad when your dreams of playing more stupid Jund/Junk/ Marit Lage decks or whatever are getting crushed.

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Originally Posted by LOLWut

I'm enthusiastically co-signing "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card." and adding "No-one with a brain believes that Ponder is a problem card."

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It could easily be a problem card. But IMO Elves, Library/GSZ in goodstuff, Bob, Top etc. are much closer to Ponder's power level than Brainstorm's. They're still not quite as smooth but the difference in raw power is small or nonexistent.

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Originally Posted by Adryan

Always the same. A lot of guys with flawed arguments waiting for Brainstorm to get banned. Treasure Cruise ban is realistic, but everyone who hopes that Brainstorm will get the axe.... don't be too sad when your dreams of playing more stupid Jund/Junk/ Marit Lage decks or whatever are getting crushed.

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Wow, such respect for other people, damn. You really set me straight, gonna go have to order a set of USeas so I won't be turning creatures sideways anymore.

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Originally Posted by Zombie

It could easily be a problem card. But IMO Elves, Library/GSZ in goodstuff, Bob, Top etc. are much closer to Ponder's power level than Brainstorm's. They're still not quite as smooth but the difference in raw power is small or nonexistent.



Wow, such respect for other people, damn. You really set me straight, gonna go have to order a set of USeas so I won't be turning creatures sideways anymore.

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Brainstorm being so skill intensive sets blue mages apart from us obviously less skilled pet deck playing apes.
#BrainstormIsObviouslyTooHardForMe

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Originally Posted by Megadeus

Brainstorm being so skill intensive sets blue mages apart from us obviously less skilled pet deck playing apes.
#BrainstormIsObviouslyTooHardForMe

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Ask nedleeds and I am an unskilled ape because I play hoof o_o
(...having 14 win conditions IS dumb)
:P

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Originally Posted by death

A ban is imminent of any of the following/or combination of cards:

1. Ponder
2. Brainstorm
3. Treasure Cruise

Once we start seeing maindeck Pyroblasts from non-Painter's Servant decks there's an ongoing water problem.

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What did I say about not-reading-the-last-pages? Here it is:

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Wow, we're still not over the MB Red Elemental Blast thing from what I have read the last pages? Is it sooooo hard to compregend that REBs in tempo lists like UR Delver is NOT FOR BATTLING OPPOSING BRAINSTORMS but the ONLY viable out against TNN/Counterbalance in that colors in addition to FoW? Everyone who ever played a tempo related deck can verify that TNN/Counterbalance is about the worst that can happen.

I'm baffled that people still think the numbers of Brainstorm + REBs or those of Brainstorm + FoW are somehow connected. They are not gentlemen. You play REBs against blue threats other cards in that color can't economically handle, while FoW + Ponder + Preordain + Probe (+ SDT) still prevent you from dying against T1 Combo decks


Edit: also a big applause for not reading the last 10 or so pages of an active discussion, but jumping in by repeating the same old "arguments" we read dozens of times before from other people who did not bother to follow the threat either. There are the same arguments and counter-arguments coming up every 4 pages, because no one bothers to read the fucking arguments before they make their posts.

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The problem with banning Treasure Cruise is that there will eventually be another good Blue card printed, because Wizards isn't going to have Blue suck in Standard for the next 10 years. Every time they print a good, playable Blue card, we'll have to ban it? How stale will to format become?

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Originally Posted by H

The problem with banning Treasure Cruise is that there will eventually be another good Blue card printed, because Wizards isn't going to have Blue suck in Standard for the next 10 years. Every time they print a good, playable Blue card, we'll have to ban it? How stale will to format become?

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Suprisingly this is the argument why Survival was banned instead of Vengevine and is not coming back. :)


Edit: in the end, you cannot reverse 10+ of printings and the supremacy of blue cantrips for reasons of consistancy is unmatched since fetchlands saw print. We know what happend the last time WotC tried to undo the blue shell and vindicated a format, its appeal and playerbase

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Originally Posted by Zombie

Wow, such respect for other people, damn. You really set me straight, gonna go have to order a set of USeas so I won't be turning creatures sideways anymore.

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Which is very funny, considering a strategy revolving around flippings spells and attacking for 3 in the air, while eating opponents brainstorms/swords/spells draining for 2 was the dominant USea strategy for the longest time - and arguably still is.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Suprisingly this is the argument why Survival was banned instead of Vengevine and is not coming back. :)

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Oh, I know. The irony is not lost on me. Let's be real though, it makes sense. Are they really not going to make any good new Blue cards? What will be their effect on a format where Blue is already as established as the "best shell" by a considerable margin?

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Edit: in the end, you cannot reverse 10+ of printings and the supremacy of blue cantrips for reasons of consistancy is unmatched since fetchlands saw print. We know what happend the last time WotC tried to undo the blue shell and vindicated a format, its appeal and playerbase

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As much as we hear about the whole "Vintage exodus," I am becoming less sure it wasn't actually a possibly good thing honestly. Mind you, I played Vintage for years before I even played any Legacy.

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Originally Posted by btm10

As to those saying that some "lack of diversity" in the meta is causing a fall-off in format adoption, I'm pretty skeptical. While this might be true at the local level, the regular Legacy group at my LGS has definitely grown in the last few months, so there's at least one data point in the other direction. In addition, there was a massive collapse in the number of Vintage players in the wake of Brainstorm being banned, and several prominent Vintage players (Rich Shay probably being the most notable among them) have argued for its unbanning. While there were a few confounding factors like the end of SCG Power 9 tournaments, the initial falloff was well after that and much closer to the Brainstorm ban, and I was part of that initial wave. It wouldn't surprise me at all if a Brainstorm (or Ponder) ban had a similarly large negative impact on Legacy event attendance. It would be especially scary to have a ban come in the Fate Reforged B/R update because answering the attendance question would become considerably more difficult due to a lack of a baseline from the new SCG Open structure.

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Well yes, I have always agreed with the argument to protect iconic cards from Wizard's standpoint (if you want to search 100-300 pages back you will probably find me saying this, I also think IBA made a thread about this in this sub-forum). If it makes them money they will obviously keep it and I won't blame them. For me there are different card games if they do this but I do understand their choice if this is their reasoning. It makes sense and I can live with it. I disagree with the reasoning but at least it makes sense.

But in threads like this you will always find people trying to find stupid arguments how BS is not banworthy for its power level and that annoys me a lot. Like what, do you really think that MD Red Blasts are not different from MD Swords? Did Lemnear really manage to convince himself that there is no connection between MD REBs and decks including Brainstorm being heavily played?

People have in fact convinced themselves that main board red blast is as logical as main deck swords to plowshares. "It's just an answer!". Yeah. Except one answers 80% of legacy creatures while the other... Well at this point I guess answers 80% of decks spells since blue is so omnipresent

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Originally Posted by Megadeus

People have in fact convinced themselves that main board red blast is as logical as main deck swords to plowshares. "It's just an answer!". Yeah. Except one answers 80% of legacy creatures while the other... Well at this point I guess answers 80% of decks spells since blue is so omnipresent

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There's a good bit of difference between answering card type and color. Every color can use most card types but do so in different-feeling ways. Blasts being prominent means one color dominates a ton.

I always thought that the whole problem of BS is its power. Not color. Power. Got it?
You would ban Ancestral even if it cannot be hit by Pyrblast, right?

If Ancestral Recall was red and legal we would see MD Blue Blasts because everyone would play red. But instead Brainstorm is legal and so we see MD Red Blasts because everyone plays blue.

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Originally Posted by Tao

If Ancestral Recall was red and legal we would see MD Blue Blasts because everyone would play red. But instead Brainstorm is legal and so we see MD Red Blasts because everyone plays blue.

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We also see the return of Hydroblasts to counter the red blasts. :eyebrow:

The sad thing is that REB and Pyroblast are actually effective Brainstorm hate, compared to the few failures that Wizards has churned out in recent years - they are both instant speed and don't cost more than Brainstorm. Whoop-de-fucking-doo - is it really that hard to print something that meets these two criteria? Sure, it feels nice to catch someone with Notion Thief or a vialed in Spirit of the Labyrinth, but that's more of a Magical Christmas Land scenario, especially against good players.

I'm not too keen about the format turning into Vintage 2.0 with blue being everywhere.

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Originally Posted by Barook

...
The sad thing is that REB and Pyroblast are actually effective Brainstorm hate, ...

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REB and Pyroblast are not effective brainstorm hate: when you blast a brainstorm, you break even 1-1 on cards and 1-1 on mana.

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Originally Posted by rufus

REB and Pyroblast are not effective brainstorm hate: when you blast a brainstorm, you break even 1-1 on cards and 1-1 on mana.

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According to that StP is bad against every creature costing 1 mana, you break even on cards, on mana and your opponent gains life.
#needbetterremoval

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Originally Posted by H

Oh, I know. The irony is not lost on me. Let's be real though, it makes sense. Are they really not going to make any good new Blue cards? What will be their effect on a format where Blue is already as established as the "best shell" by a considerable margin?

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As long as the non-blue hard-to-splash cards are better than the blue printings, I don't see a problem with new, good printings for blue. Get me right, I too hate what Delver/TNN/TC did to the Legacy metagame, but there is no bearable solution to the issue which doesn't equal the impact of the "Vintage Apocalypse".

Legacy is irreversible going the way Vintage did rendering every unpowered and/or non-blue a questionable choice aside 1/2/3 alternatives (Dredge for example)

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Originally Posted by H

As much as we hear about the whole "Vintage exodus," I am becoming less sure it wasn't actually a possibly good thing honestly. Mind you, I played Vintage for years before I even played any Legacy.

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The vintage apocalypse made me re-start playing Legacy with the hope that Vintage can grew out of it's misery and the Lodestones reign. I gave up years later, but had to witness people like Menendian, Shay, DeMars and Co. changing their position about the format forth and back. I can't consider it a "good thing" if the playerbase quarters within two years :/


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Originally Posted by Megadeus

People have in fact convinced themselves that main board red blast is as logical as main deck swords to plowshares. "It's just an answer!". Yeah. Except one answers 80% of legacy creatures while the other... Well at this point I guess answers 80% of decks spells since blue is so omnipresent

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Yeah, it answers Delver, Counterbalance, TNN, Show&Tell and TC for a single RED mana in an UR deck which otherwise has no way outside of FoW to get hold of those cards. Pyroblast and REB aren't played because of Ponder and Brainstorm or we would have seen MB play years before, but because WotC overdid it with BLUE THREATS.

I don't see a significant difference in mindsets between "answering 80% of creatures" and "answering 80% of threats"

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Originally Posted by Tao

If Ancestral Recall was red and legal we would see MD Blue Blasts because everyone would play red. But instead Brainstorm is legal and so we see MD Red Blasts because everyone plays blue.

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Originally Posted by Barook

We also see the return of Hydroblasts to counter the red blasts. :eyebrow:

The sad thing is that REB and Pyroblast are actually effective Brainstorm hate, compared to the few failures that Wizards has churned out in recent years - they are both instant speed and don't cost more than Brainstorm. Whoop-de-fucking-doo - is it really that hard to print something that meets these two criteria? Sure, it feels nice to catch someone with Notion Thief or a vialed in Spirit of the Labyrinth, but that's more of a Magical Christmas Land scenario, especially against good players.

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Both of these sentiments are great examples of how poorly thought-out this complaint is. The reason people are maindecking red blasts isn't Brainstorm, it's Treasure Cruise, and it's Treasure Cruise on (at least) two levels. First, Cruise is blue. Second, because red has the two best creatures to play with Cruise (Swiftspear and Young Pyromancer) and flexible 1-mana answers (Bolt and Bolt-variants), it plays well with Cruise by rewarding the high-velocity play that enables Cruising early and often and by having additional high-velocity cards. It's not "hmm, everyone's playing blue for Brainstorm so I should run URx for Brainstorm and Pyroblast", it's "hmm, I'm already running URx to support Treasure Cruise and opposing Cruises are all that's keeping my opponents in the game, I can run Pyroblast in one of my MD disruption slots".

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I'm not too keen about the format turning into Vintage 2.0 with blue being everywhere.

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I'm far keener on that than I am on the format turning into Modern 2.0 with d00ds.dec being everywhere. And before you say "UR Delver! Blue!", look at how well Junk midrange and Junk Pod decks perform in Modern. And Delver is still a creature deck.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

As long as the non-blue hard-to-splash cards are better than the blue printings, I don't see a problem with new, good printings for blue. Get me right, I too hate what Delver/TNN/TC did to the Legacy metagame, but there is no bearable solution to the issue which doesn't equal the impact of the "Vintage Apocalypse".

Legacy is irreversible going the way Vintage did rendering every unpowered and/or non-blue a questionable choice aside 1/2/3 alternatives (Dredge for example)

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My concern has, and will continue to, rise from the fact that I don't have faith in Wizards ability to print things that fit in that paradigm.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

The vintage apocalypse made me re-start playing Legacy with the hope that Vintage can grew out of it's misery and the Lodestones reign. I gave up years later, but had to witness people like Menendian, Shay, DeMars and Co. changing their position about the format forth and back. I can't consider it a "good thing" if the playerbase quarters within two years :/

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I only started playing Vintage in about 2009-10, so I never actually played in the 4 Brainstorm era. Considering that I only play Blue in Vintage (despite the fact that I own Workshops and Bazaars) it isn't as if I wouldn't want to have more Brainstorms, but I know it would not be healthy for the format.

I'm sure people complained, I'm sure people quit. If you are the kind of person who would quit because they ban over-powered cards though, is the format really better having you? I enjoyed the hell out of our 30 person Vintage events. Would it have been nicer if they were 60+, sure, but at what cost? I think that considering the price of Power now, Vintage is pretty healthy at this moment.

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Originally Posted by Tao

Well yes, I have always agreed with the argument to protect iconic cards from Wizard's standpoint (if you want to search 100-300 pages back you will probably find me saying this, I also think IBA made a thread about this in this sub-forum). If it makes them money they will obviously keep it and I won't blame them. For me there are different card games if they do this but I do understand their choice if this is their reasoning. It makes sense and I can live with it. I disagree with the reasoning but at least it makes sense.

But in threads like this you will always find people trying to find stupid arguments how BS is not banworthy for its power level and that annoys me a lot.

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The power level point is what annoys me as well. I have decided to buy into Brainstorm decks in the new year, and it saddens me because I truly enjoy playing non-blue strategies and I know I will never pick one for a big event like an SCG even if it would be more personally rewarding to go on a run with it. On the other hand, there are other blue cards that I want to play and there's no reason to just shut myself off from it out of spite.

On the point of iconic cards, though, the only true iconic cards of Legacy in my opinion are the 10 ABUR dual lands. Brainstorm became heavily played while I was away from the game (I left before Odyssey) and I understand that it became a very important and popular card, but to me the soul of this format is the ability to play any color combination without drawback. When I was a kid, we used to sign up for Type 1 tournaments instead of Type 2 because we had our duals and Sol Rings, but no power. It was worth getting completely stomped by someone dropping a Juzam just so we could get our turn 1 2/3 Kird Ape or play Sol'Kanar in our deck without taking a million damage off painlands and Cities. Not to mention that at the time, Wizards had a policy against making enemy-color mana fixing as easy as allied-color, so if you wanted to play RW or UG, revised duals were all you really had besides rainbow lands. Man, I remember sitting down against a guy playing a R/W prison deck where he Lotused out an early Moat and then won with a Serra Angel while Swordsing and Bolting anything you might play in the air off his Plateaus. I remember when Extended was announced as basically Type 2 + Duals and it was insanely fun for those of us who couldn't get power.

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Originally Posted by Megadeus

People have in fact convinced themselves that main board red blast is as logical as main deck swords to plowshares. "It's just an answer!". Yeah. Except one answers 80% of legacy creatures while the other... Well at this point I guess answers 80% of decks spells since blue is so omnipresent

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STP is also a reason why creatures are being pushed now. For years you could get Time Walked by STP because your creatures did nothing and anything good cost so much that it being swordsed EOT was essentially a wasted turn. STP is the most narrow removal spell that's played in Legacy which is why it's the target here (as people want to whine about being "forced" to play "narrow" cards). But really most removal played in Legacy is incredibly flexible and potent. The two other commonly played spells are Lightning Bolt and Abrupt Decay. As we all know spells are more powerful than creatures generally anyway, and there is only one color that can interact with spells on the stack effectively. The only reason most Legacy decks aren't creatureless or play only 1-2 creatures is that they have been pushed.

I'm not going to do the math on potential REB targets vs. potential Swords targets or situations, but I think we're seeing where the line is drawn: You wouldn't mainboard REB even if you only expected 50% blue penetration because having a dead card in potentially half your matches is bad enough to make a difference. But if you're playing at a 4 round local and the card will be good in 3 out of 4 matches because penetration of blue is 75%, well there you go. Let's not forget that the best way to deal with a dead REB is to brainstorm-shuffle it away. I will never forget the satisfaction of playing deadguy vs. miracles and winning a preboard game because he never drew a Brainstorm to ditch his two Pyroblasts in hand to. That's the kind of price people should be paying for playing narrow cards that Brainstorm eliminates. Bet he wishes he had run two more STPs! Incidentally, he won both sideboard games.

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Originally Posted by Tao

You say "he wants even Ponder banned" as if that was something unheard of. But it is already banned / restricted in Vintage and Modern. In fact it is a little curiosity that it isn't banned in Legacy because Legacy is in the "middle" of these two formats in terms of power levels. That might have format specific reasons but it is at the very least a good indicator of the powerlevel of the card. And, just as a reminder so that it doesn't get lost through the pages, I suggested a ban of Ponder alongside Brainstorm because the ban would give slight nerfs to a lot of problem cards, but I didn't say there are no alternatives like with Brainstorm. About FoW I think Megadeus put it nicely when he said "Because no-one with a brain believes that force is a problem card.".

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If Brainstorm was banned Ponder would immediately become the best card in Legacy and would hit whatever penetration Brainstorm is at now in the short term as people just move cards around. I am fine with this because as powerful as Ponder is it is not close to Brainstorm.

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Originally Posted by btm10

Without getting into format specific reasons, what no one has done so far is make a compelling argument about why we should be nerfing the format's best consistency engines. Playing with blue mana sources is a pretty small price to pay to be able to play combo, aggro, control, midrange, tempo, or some combination thereof and have the decks actually work reliably. I really can't get my head around the argument that if nonblue decks can't have the best consistency tools, then no deck should have the best consistency tools.

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It shrinks the pool of effectively playable cards and Legacy matches begin to look the same. Look at what's happened to black staples over the past few months to a year. Dark Confidant, Liliana of the Veil, Deathrite Shaman, Thoughtseize and even though it's not black, Wasteland have been pushed out of the format, even in BUG. In 2013 Deathrite Shaman was the most played creature (31.3%) and Tarmogoyf was second. Both Jund and BUG were solid strategies that held back Delver of Secrets (20%) strategies. In the past two months, Tarmogoyf is played at a 14% rate. Traditional RUG is a second-tier deck and BGx — even BUG — is gone because attrition can't fight raw advantage (Young Pyromancer, Treasure Cruise and cantrips). What's the point of packing wasteland when for the cost of U your opponent can just find their next land?

Karakas is more played than Underground Sea right now because fair black strategies are being abandoned. Now you play Usea because you play Reanimator or Storm. Which is fine, except those decks will have trouble, especially post-board, against UWR decks (which include Miracles, Stoneforge, and Delver strategies, or some combination thereof).

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Originally Posted by btm10

As to those saying that some "lack of diversity" in the meta is causing a fall-off in format adoption, I'm pretty skeptical. While this might be true at the local level, the regular Legacy group at my LGS has definitely grown in the last few months, so there's at least one data point in the other direction. In addition, there was a massive collapse in the number of Vintage players in the wake of Brainstorm being banned, and several prominent Vintage players (Rich Shay probably being the most notable among them) have argued for its unbanning. While there were a few confounding factors like the end of SCG Power 9 tournaments, the initial falloff was well after that and much closer to the Brainstorm ban, and I was part of that initial wave. It wouldn't surprise me at all if a Brainstorm (or Ponder) ban had a similarly large negative impact on Legacy event attendance. It would be especially scary to have a ban come in the Fate Reforged B/R update because answering the attendance question would become considerably more difficult due to a lack of a baseline from the new SCG Open structure.

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I think there are far fewer people who find Brainstorm so crucial to their enjoyment of Legacy than there are people who would like more options for competitive cards. Even people who enjoy playing Brainstorm or blue in general appreciate a more open field.

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Originally Posted by H

My concern has, and will continue to, rise from the fact that I don't have faith in Wizards ability to print things that fit in that paradigm.

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I share the sentiment. I'm still angry about Delver/TNN/TC but black being 3cc removal, discard and 5cc+ demons only ... because of Dark Ritual *sigh*

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Originally Posted by H

I only started playing Vintage in about 2009-10, so I never actually played in the 4 Brainstorm era. Considering that I only play Blue in Vintage (despite the fact that I own Workshops and Bazaars) it isn't as if I wouldn't want to have more Brainstorms, but I know it would not be healthy for the format.

I'm sure people complained, I'm sure people quit. If you are the kind of person who would quit because they ban over-powered cards though, is the format really better having you? I enjoyed the hell out of our 30 person Vintage events. Would it have been nicer if they were 60+, sure, but at what cost? I think that considering the price of Power now, Vintage is pretty healthy at this moment.

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I can only tell about the glorious times we had in Munich during the second gush-era aka the golden age of vintage with 60+ players slinging blue cores and Workshops (before the unbanning of Gush I played Shops)

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Originally Posted by btm10

I'm far keener on that than I am on the format turning into Modern 2.0 with d00ds.dec being everywhere. And before you say "UR Delver! Blue!", look at how well Junk midrange and Junk Pod decks perform in Modern. And Delver is still a creature deck.

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So every non-dood.dec deck loses every time it doesn't cast Brainstorm?

I play Delver in modern. Delver crushes the other blue decks, which tend to be low-creature-count control decks and combo decks (Twin and Scapeshift, which run varying amounts of creatures). It also dies a gross, bloody and horrifying death to the Junk decks.

Personally, I love it. I love having to sideboard in 11 cards to deal with Siege Rhino. It forces me to have to make actual decisions about what I might see in a metagame — what if there's a lot of Affinity? What if there's a lot of Tron? U tron or RG Tron? What about bogles, do I want sweepers or pinpoint removal. How many RFG effects.

And by the way, Modern has a healthy amount of low-creature decks. At least as many as Legacy does at this point. Scapeshift, UWx control, Pyromancer Ascension, and Jeskai Ascendency, Tron (2 flavors!) are just the ones off the top of my head. There are really only two truly creatureless decks in Legacy and one of them plays Entreat the Angels. (And the version of that deck with creatures is more popular.)

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

I share the sentiment. I'm still angry about Delver/TNN/TC but black being 3cc removal, discard and 5cc+ demons only ... because of Dark Ritual *sigh*

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Thing is, Delver and it's ilk are inevitable (OK, TNN is dumb, but also pretty inevitable). Blue is going to get cards that are made for other formats and they are going to have completely out-of-proportion effects on the meta game, because of how Blue it already is. This kind of points to what the real issue might be, but again, what can really be done about it? It is either ban all new good Blue cards or go back and start acting on the even better ones from before. Both are not appealing in their own way.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

I can only tell about the glorious times we had in Munich during the second gush-era aka the golden age of vintage with 60+ players slinging blue cores and Workshops (before the unbanning of Gush I played Shops)

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I still think Vintage is great, best time I had a tournament in many years was last year's NYSE Open. I playing what was essentially Owen's 2010 Champs deck (although I didn't realize it at the time, haha) with some obvious new additions. It was a blast. Of course I punted myself out of a chance to top 8, but ended up 9th and it was great. I think that Vintage has some serious appeal, but maybe that's just me. There is a huge amount you can do in the format the ends up unexplored, but that's what makes it great. Sure, Shops can be overbearing at times, but nut draws aside, any well made deck should have a good chance versus them.

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Originally Posted by btm10

Both of these sentiments are great examples of how poorly thought-out this complaint is. The reason people are maindecking red blasts isn't Brainstorm, it's Treasure Cruise, and it's Treasure Cruise on (at least) two levels. First, Cruise is blue. Second, because red has the two best creatures to play with Cruise (Swiftspear and Young Pyromancer) and flexible 1-mana answers (Bolt and Bolt-variants), it plays well with Cruise by rewarding the high-velocity play that enables Cruising early and often and by having additional high-velocity cards. It's not "hmm, everyone's playing blue for Brainstorm so I should run URx for Brainstorm and Pyroblast", it's "hmm, I'm already running URx to support Treasure Cruise and opposing Cruises are all that's keeping my opponents in the game, I can run Pyroblast in one of my MD disruption slots".

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My complaint wasn't about BS being the main reason MD REBs - I agree that TC is the main reason for the MD Blasts.

What I was ranting about was Wizards complete inability to print actual good hate that can dent Brainstorm's presence - especially one that isn't compatible with blue. As long as it isn't instant speed and costs 1 mana at most, it's going to suck in the grand scheme of things. That's the problem. And no, Spirit of the Labyrinth still isn't a good card - it's just Wizards going full retard with card draw that makes people reconsider the card.

You guys do realize the reason why pple are maindecking REB/Pyro is TC/DTT? If those get banned,problem solved..

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Originally Posted by maharis

Let's not forget that the best way to deal with a dead REB is to brainstorm-shuffle it away. I will never forget the satisfaction of playing deadguy vs. miracles and winning a preboard game because he never drew a Brainstorm to ditch his two Pyroblasts in hand to. That's the kind of price people should be paying for playing narrow cards that Brainstorm eliminates. Bet he wishes he had run two more STPs! Incidentally, he won both sideboard games.

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An incidental extra example: Ross Merriam in the SCG Players' Championship this weekend. Progenitus and two Natural Orders in hand. No Brainstorm, game loss.

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Originally Posted by rancOr_

You guys do realize the reason why pple are maindecking REB/Pyro is TC/DTT? If those get banned,problem solved..

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Maindeck REBs are not the problem. That they are maindeck is a symptom of the problem, and the problem is what the complaints are about, not the symptoms as such.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Wow, we're still not over the MB Red Elemental Blast thing from what I have read the last pages? Is it sooooo hard to compregend that REBs in tempo lists like UR Delver is NOT FOR BATTLING OPPOSING BRAINSTORMS but the ONLY viable out against TNN/Counterbalance in that colors in addition to FoW? Everyone who ever played a tempo related deck can verify that TNN/Counterbalance is about the worst that can happen.

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Originally Posted by rancOr_

You guys do realize the reason why pple are maindecking REB/Pyro is TC/DTT? If those get banned,problem solved..

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Yeah right...

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Originally Posted by Tao

Yeah right...

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Considering that the increase in maindeck REB effects directly correlates with the increase in Miracles representation (Counterbalance) followed by the release of Khans (TC/DTT), I'd say he is likely right. But let's go ahead and ignore data for the sake of witty retorts like "yeah, right", "if you disagree, you're stupid" and of course some hackneyed strawman like "brainstorm decks" or "#GoPlayModern" etc.

Don't you think it is kind of funny that both absolutely agree with each other that Brainstorm is not the problem but that they have completely different opinions about what the problem is? The cause of MD REBs are just those super powerful cards that you somehow always draw in the right situations and that mysteriously disappear from your hand when you don't need them... but the problem is certainly not Brainstorm.

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Originally Posted by maharis

So every non-dood.dec deck loses every time it doesn't cast Brainstorm?

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No, but removing Brainstorm is going to push the format more toward midrange creature strategies than it already is by significantly handicapping combo. This is especially true since Wizards' main route to cards for Legacy and Vintage seems to be printing more obnoxious hatebears. I'd rather have "everyone plays blue, but can take any strategic angle the want" than "Combo is bad, and do everything through creatures".

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I play Delver in modern. Delver crushes the other blue decks, which tend to be low-creature-count control decks and combo decks (Twin and Scapeshift, which run varying amounts of creatures). It also dies a gross, bloody and horrifying death to the Junk decks.

Personally, I love it. I love having to sideboard in 11 cards to deal with Siege Rhino. It forces me to have to make actual decisions about what I might see in a metagame — what if there's a lot of Affinity? What if there's a lot of Tron? U tron or RG Tron? What about bogles, do I want sweepers or pinpoint removal. How many RFG effects.

And by the way, Modern has a healthy amount of low-creature decks. At least as many as Legacy does at this point. Scapeshift, UWx control, Pyromancer Ascension, and Jeskai Ascendency, Tron (2 flavors!) are just the ones off the top of my head. There are really only two truly creatureless decks in Legacy and one of them plays Entreat the Angels. (And the version of that deck with creatures is more popular.)

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I realize that there are creature-light decks in Modern, but the top decks of the format are overwhelmingly creature-based (including non-Pyromancer Ascension combo decks like Twin) and are likely to remain that way. This is an unfortunate result of creatures being so heavily pushed since the end of Time Spiral block, and the same thing is obviously happening in Legacy and, more slowly, in Vintage. I'm not happy with the state of affaris, but recognize that it's not going to change in the long run. I can hope, however, that Legacy and Vintage stay relatively creature light as long as possible.

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Originally Posted by maharis

The power level point is what annoys me as well. I have decided to buy into Brainstorm decks in the new year, and it saddens me because I truly enjoy playing non-blue strategies and I know I will never pick one for a big event like an SCG even if it would be more personally rewarding to go on a run with it. On the other hand, there are other blue cards that I want to play and there's no reason to just shut myself off from it out of spite.

On the point of iconic cards, though, the only true iconic cards of Legacy in my opinion are the 10 ABUR dual lands. Brainstorm became heavily played while I was away from the game (I left before Odyssey) and I understand that it became a very important and popular card, but to me the soul of this format is the ability to play any color combination without drawback...

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There's definitely an element of truth to this, just like Vintage is defined by the Restricted List. The major difference though is that while the Restricted list continues to be updated (and while the updates are generally farther apart than people would like), we've had twists of history that made other cards almost as important as the ABUR Duals in making Legacy Legacy, and Brainstorm and Ponder are two of those cards. Neither card is intrinsically broken, but the conditions in other formats have made their restriction (to control Gush decks in Vintage) and banning (to make combo slower and less consistent in Modern) necessary to maintain balance in other formats. Neither Brainstorm nor Ponder violates fundamental rules of Legacy by enabling too-fast kills or a single overly dominant deck or even a single dominant archetype. Really, the biggest reason I'm on the fence about banning Treasure Cruise is that it's reinvigorated aggro as an archetype in UR Delver.

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STP is also a reason why creatures are being pushed now. For years you could get Time Walked by STP because your creatures did nothing and anything good cost so much that it being swordsed EOT was essentially a wasted turn.

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I don't think this is the case so much as market reserach saying that WotC's best customers want a more creature-based, board-oriented game drives better creatures.

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If Brainstorm was banned Ponder would immediately become the best card in Legacy and would hit whatever penetration Brainstorm is at now in the short term as people just move cards around.

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We can definitely agree on this part. However, I seriously doubt that it would have anything close to its desired effect in the end, unless the desired effect is to severely damage most combo and Miracles.

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It shrinks the pool of effectively playable cards and Legacy matches begin to look the same. Look at what's happened to black staples over the past few months to a year. Dark Confidant, Liliana of the Veil, Deathrite Shaman, Thoughtseize and even though it's not black, Wasteland have been pushed out of the format, even in BUG. In 2013 Deathrite Shaman was the most played creature (31.3%) and Tarmogoyf was second. Both Jund and BUG were solid strategies that held back Delver of Secrets (20%) strategies. In the past two months, Tarmogoyf is played at a 14% rate. Traditional RUG is a second-tier deck and BGx — even BUG — is gone because attrition can't fight raw advantage (Young Pyromancer, Treasure Cruise and cantrips). What's the point of packing wasteland when for the cost of U your opponent can just find their next land?

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I think your metagame assessment is wrong (on strength rather than on composition), but leave that aside for a moment. Making the comparison of all of 2013 to the last two months is a pretty weak argument for the secular decline of Black (or anything else) at the expense of Brainstorm. The thing that changed in the last two months is Treasure Cruise, not Brainstorm. Cruise didn't even make Brainstorm better - if anything, the URx decks tend to have weaker Brainstorms than other decks because Cruise incentivizes them firing it off to find another cantrip as quickly as possible.

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I think there are far fewer people who find Brainstorm so crucial to their enjoyment of Legacy than there are people who would like more options for competitive cards. Even people who enjoy playing Brainstorm or blue in general appreciate a more open field.

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Again, I think you're wrong about this. I admit that I don't have data, but I know that you don't either, and there's a lot to be said for not losing to something like flooding out, getting mana screwed, or drawing the wrong half of your deck. While Brainstorm and the rest of the "cantrip cartel" don't eliminate these problems, even when combined with fetchlands, they make them all happen much less frequently. I also think that the lack of consistency is going to hamstring a lot more archetypes than it will help. The disproportionate impact a Brainstorm ban would have on combo has already been discussed to death, but it would also push Miracles toward a midrange strategy (UWx Blade) because losing the ability to throw back Miracles that it draws at inopportune moments or in its opener is probably enough to render CounterTop + Miracles unplayable (or at least not competitive) as a standalone deck. And what rises up to replace these? It's sure not combo or hard control; most likely it's some mix of Blue or BGx midrange and Wx or Wxy hatebear decks. I'll pass.

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Originally Posted by H

Thing is, Delver and it's ilk are inevitable (OK, TNN is dumb, but also pretty inevitable). Blue is going to get cards that are made for other formats and they are going to have completely out-of-proportion effects on the meta game, because of how Blue it already is. This kind of points to what the real issue might be, but again, what can really be done about it? It is either ban all new good Blue cards or go back and start acting on the even better ones from before. Both are not appealing in their own way.

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The third option is to just accept the fact that blue is better than the other colors in Legacy and Vintage. It's not like Legacy has the residual consistency engines that Vintage does in Mystical, Vampiric, and Demonic Tutors, and Merchant Scroll doesn't have Ancestral Recall or Gush-level targets in Legacy (or it would also be banned). The major shift in the meta in the past two years (and perhaps longer) is the advent of a widely playable card advantage engine. I'm not sure if it's good or bad, but it's such a major change that any bannings (and probably even obvious unbannings as well) should wait until after Dragons of Tarkir is released at the absolute earliest. If anyone thinks that the Treasure Cruise meta is solved, they're nuts. I'm not even totally convinced that we wouldn't be better off with some sort of banning, but I think that Treasure Cruise is a much clearer target than Brainstorm.