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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tha Gunslinga
Duals crashed pretty hard after peaking earlier this year. Not sure I'd want to put money into them.
But they didn't really crash, did they. Indeed spiked for a bit (when Goyf did, too) and went back to their usual price.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
But what if Wizards does ultimately create an Over-Extended format? I know that was originally just a rumor, and it doesn't look like it will come to fruition this year or the next. But 3, 4, or even 5 years down the line, there will be a HUGE gap of cards that just aren't played. Seems like an opportunity for Wizards to create something new. And to be honest, it may not be a terrible idea if they do it correctly.
I don't want to start up speculative conversations on formats though. Does this beg the question, however, of how much can we truly rely on Legacy staples to remain good investments? I'm striving to complete a set of 40 duals myself, as well as 40 Ravnica duals. But I'm wondering if the Ravnica duals have more upside potential than the originals...
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
sigfig8
But what if Wizards does ultimately create an Over-Extended format? I know that was originally just a rumor, and it doesn't look like it will come to fruition this year or the next. But 3, 4, or even 5 years down the line, there will be a HUGE gap of cards that just aren't played. Seems like an opportunity for Wizards to create something new. And to be honest, it may not be a terrible idea if they do it correctly.
I don't want to start up speculative conversations on formats though. Does this beg the question, however, of how much can we truly rely on Legacy staples to remain good investments? I'm striving to complete a set of 40 duals myself, as well as 40 Ravnica duals. But I'm wondering if the Ravnica duals have more upside potential than the originals...
I don't think OverExtended is very appealing at all to Wizards. I don't think it's ever going to happen really. I think they thought about it when the rumors were flying and realized it would a terrible idea all around. Legacy already fills the role it does and between Legacy and Extended I think they decided several smaller more casual eternal formats was a better option overall hence why we are now seeing support for EDH.
Also duals didn't crash, they just got super inflated for a couple months while all the SCG crowd bought into Legacy then they went back to normal. I have noticed recently they have started to go up again. A month ago you could easily get a playset of Badlands for $90ish now they go for minimum $30 a piece on Ebay. I'm guessing this is just a combination of Survival speculation (people needing cards for their next non-Sur decks) and the recent announcement of next years SCG tournaments. I think they will go down a little in the next month and then not go up again until next summer when all the younger crowd gets summer jobs. I think we are already seeing the peak of this round of speculation though, if Survival gets banned it might go on for another month or so but I doubt it will get any worse.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Well, I consider going way up, then going way back down to be crashing.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tha Gunslinga
Well, I consider going way up, then going way back down to be crashing.
Meh. If they were below the level they were a year ago I might agree. I would call what happened a spike, the value of duals temporarily went up for 3-4 months then returned to pre-spike prices. I would consider a crash more severe. If something temporarily spikes in prices then all of a sudden lost a significant amount of value to go below what it was previously worth I would say it crashed. Likewise if something slowly built up over time then lost a lot of value I would call it a crash. If next month gas is $3.50 a gallon then the next month it is $2.85 again I wouldn't say gas prices crashed, I'd just say they temporarily spiked.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Gas doesn't go down in price, so silly.
Anyway, we were talking about the Ravnica duals. They did spike, but it was the typical Extended spike from when they were still in the format. Then they left and dropped like normal. I just was saying they still sell like hotcakes to the casual crowds. Casual tabletop players buy a lot of things that tournament players spurn and can drive prices all by themselves.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
A foil 7th Edition set? Hmm, that's a tough one. Not sure what I would put on that. I think I would test the waters on it. Put it up at some insane price no one would pay, then lower it until it sold. That's a fairly valuable commodity so it would be worth sitting on for a time. Very tough set to put together. That one is like selling a set of three Kingdoms or Alternate 4th. There's no real precedent for it since they are so few and far between. Things like that are really hard to sell. Either no one has the money for it or has so much they already built it themselves. Ask Ben, he might have sold one. It's 1436.88 on Troll and toad and 600 something on another site. Gives you an idea of how ranged the price can be on something like that.
Assuming everything is NM, I'd probably price it between $800 and $1000. Just depends how quickly you'd want it to sell.
- Ben
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
who wants a foil 7th ed. set - really?
what cards are worthwhile? - goblin matron, sure but you want a playset
there's a reason why sets never sell and that's that unless they are very specific (i bought a portal three kingdoms set a few years ago because i had nothing from it and figured it was a good start/and i saw a korean saga set go for a pretty good price earlier in the year) people really just want playsets of the hottest few cards and the rest is junk - for a collector the thrill is generally picking up the cards piece by piece, not getting them in a single hit
split up the set, you'll end up selling the good stuff and the rest ain't worth a damn - keep them for fun
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Birds and Cities are hot too.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
samurai_socks
It's very obvious that Time Spiral will now be priced ridiculously (darn price gouging). What I'm trying to do now is speculate what other cards benefit from the change. Meditate? Brain Freeze? Mindbreak Trap (to counter all these storm win conditions)?
On a somewhat related tangent: I'm always incredibly baffled by the spike in cards once they are unbanned. Would there be value in picking up multiples of all cards (of course besides the way expensive ones) on the banned list in anticipation of their unbanning? In short, should I start collecting beta Mind Twists and Legends Land Taxes?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Don't forget Earthcraft.
Personally though, Land Tax wouldn't spike that much in value once it gets unbanned, however Scroll Rack might.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
sigfig8
It's very obvious that Time Spiral will now be priced ridiculously (darn price gouging). What I'm trying to do now is speculate what other cards benefit from the change. Meditate? Brain Freeze? Mindbreak Trap (to counter all these storm win conditions)?
I'm interested in this, too. Brain freeze is an uncommon, so if it's up it won't be by much. Mindbreak Trap on the other hand... At the price they are now (around 2$ if you shop around), I'd say it's worth picking up just in case Time Spiral ends up being nuts.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Wouldn't Force of Will still be better than Mindbreak Trap anyways? Possibly countering Time Spiral itself? Then again, I dont exactly know how Spring Tide resolves.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
(nameless one)
Wouldn't Force of Will still be better than Mindbreak Trap anyways? Possibly countering Time Spiral itself? Then again, I dont exactly know how Spring Tide resolves.
You do make a valid point. Force of Will is a great tool to counter Time Spiral. Three things come to mind, however:
1) Force of Will is already expensive and played a ton; will this really budge its price?
2) Mindbreak Trap can be played in any deck's sideboard without any blue card count requirement.
3) Can Spring Tide still go off without Time Spiral? Seems like Mindbreak Trap is more of a sure thing.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
sigfig8
3) Can Spring Tide still go off without Time Spiral? Seems like Mindbreak Trap is more of a sure thing.
Spring Tide can go off T3 every game with Time Spiral banned. The only reason because ST is not played any more is CounterBalance. A T2 CB and Spring Tide crushes most of the games.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
If you haven't already taken advantage of Survival's situation it's pretty much too late. Everything not Survival has been going up since about 2 1/2 weeks ago and everything Time Spiral related is already maxed out in price. Even if Time Spiral goes in a good deck, unless that deck is extremely broken forget about $35 bucks a piece. That $200 Korean one, LOL, good fucking luck you stupid dealer. People are really getting stupid about Time Spiral, but no one is THAT stupid. Even when Survival was the card to own a Korean one wasn't even $200. It's going to come down in price fairly quickly I think as $35 for a Time Spiral is hysteria and the people paying that price are few and far between and will all soon have a playset. Already he's relisted it at $99, I think you will be able to ski down a graph of Time Spiral's price over the next month though, I'd kinda be suprised if he gets that. I think people are gonna wake up on this one real quick.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Now that Tspirals are at this price I am curious as to who will keep buying them to sustain the price. I forsee people being unable to unload them, the deck being average, and the price going down at the rate mentioned by dontbiteitholmes.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
conboy31
Now that Tspirals are at this price I am curious as to who will keep buying them to sustain the price. I forsee people being unable to unload them, the deck being average, and the price going down at the rate mentioned by dontbiteitholmes.
A: Very few people. I mean face it, who does anyone here know that would pay $35 a Time Spiral. Those people are few and far between. There are a descent amount of fools who will pay $20, and then 90% of Legacy players who know their true value is probably less than Intuition, Exploration, ect. and are not willing to play inflated prices for a card that probably won't end up seeing any play.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
It will go down somewhat mainly due to the decks that wouldn't mind Time Spiral in them have weaknesses that Time Spiral doesn't shore up. It lends a new tool in decks like Spring Tide and might be used, but it's nothing that will change the deck into a powerhouse. It retains the same problems it had originally. The original High tide decks did quite well against control and obviously aggro, but Counterbalance is around now to put a quick end to that kind of old school shenanigans. It will have to adapt to play around that card alone and might have already evolved as far as it can go against that kind of hate.
I do wonder at the possibility of putting it into a deck sporting Dream Halls and Time Reversal in a Turbo Zvi style that could run off Show and Tell in addition to just hard casting things. Playing Timetwister style effects for free is never bad and keeps a deck like that running much better than playing crap like Ancestral Knowledge or the other cards that were so subpar back then. Toss a Silence or Chant at a person and make them watch the show.
People will speculate and drive the price up, but I expect to see it go right back down. Combo isn't something people pick up and play well anyway. It's a tough deck to get used to.
I figure it will retain a price of about $20 since it is an Urza's Saga Rare and that's getting to be a tricky set to get rares from anyway.
I bet people will be more surprised at how well Survival retains it's value. I bet it stays right around the price of what it was before Vengevine's printing. It's a casual favorite though most people don't know it.
Land Tax would shoot up to pretty insane prices for a Legends copy if it ever came back despite the fact it's an Uncommon. it's still a legends card. There may be other versions out there of it in white border, but no one likes white borders for some reason. I guess there's a couple of FBB ones too that will increase decently. Remember Reset being $35 when Solidarity was big? That was a common. Land Tax being a totally superior card would easily hit $75 very quickly for a clean English Legends copy.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
(...)
Land Tax would shoot up to pretty insane prices for a Legends copy if it ever came back despite the fact it's an Uncommon. it's still a legends card. There may be other versions out there of it in white border, but no one likes white borders for some reason. I guess there's a couple of FBB ones too that will increase decently. Remember Reset being $35 when Solidarity was big? That was a common. Land Tax being a totally superior card would easily hit $75 very quickly for a clean English Legends copy.
Reset is Uncommon, fyi.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dontbiteitholmes
If you haven't already taken advantage of Survival's situation it's pretty much too late. Everything not Survival has been going up since about 2 1/2 weeks ago
What is up, exactly? I noticed some interest in merfolk staples, but everything storm related seems to be where it was... Unless I'm misinformed?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
KindGrind
What is up, exactly? I noticed some interest in merfolk staples, but everything storm related seems to be where it was... Unless I'm misinformed?
First off, how the mighty have fallen, oh my
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll...K%3AMEWAX%3AIT
a playset of Japanese Survivals for $80, that's gotta hurt. So much for retaining value. I mean I don't expect Survival to fall anymore as it is great in casual and EDH and it's really old but damn $80 for a playset of Asians is a kick in the balls.
As far as everything else, Lackeys are back up to almost $10 a piece which they haven't seen on Ebay in a while, PileDrivers are up about 20%, non-Green/Blue duals Badlands/Scrublands/Plats have seen a jump especially Badlands which started almost exactly the time period everyone seemed to agree that banning Survivals was a foregone conclusion (You could find a playset for a little over 80 a month or so ago now try 120+). Everyone missed the goblins boat if they didn't get on it. Over the past 3 months I've picked up Lackeys for under $5 left and right, those days are over. ANT and GBW stuff was already up since a lot of people switched to those decks and everybody already has Merfolk stuff, I mean seriously most of those people never even stopped playing it.
Most telling is that old school Chain Lightnings are back up to $10+ a piece despite Fire and Lightning still being on shelves, go figure I guess you can't top a classic. There was a while you could get them for $6 easy right after the box set came out. If you order Ebay by recently ended auctions you see 4x Chain Lightnings going for $25-$30ish dollars a playset then suddenly as of midnight Sunday- boom back to $10 a piece.
Seas have been up for a while since people flocked to ANT as have Burning Wishes and OMG LEDs like a boss (up from a little over 20 to 30 or more a piece). Seas dropped in price around the time Survival started breaking out and I scooped up playsets all over the place, now they are back to around 75-80 a piece and I've still got 5 extras in my trade binder.
Top went up around the time everyone decided Survival was going to get banned. A lot of stuff went up around 3-4 weeks ago when people started to put that together that's why you might not notice it as much now. Maze of Ith has gone up about 50% in value in the past month.
Time Spiral has already started the downward Spiral in my book. Day 1 a playset went for over $160 most recent playset went for $110. Don't be surprised if they are $20 a piece by next calender year.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Pretty comprehensive answer, I like that!
I unloaded my Survivals/Vengevines more than a month ago and ended up getting playsets of LEDs, Infernal Tutors, Burning Wishes and a playset of arabian Cities for them in the end. Not a bad deal, considering.
I decided a while back that never more I'd sell staples. I had to buy back some of the stuff I had sold because I needed it in the end... LEDs are a good example of this, and so are the Mutavaults, which I sold post rotation for peanuts, and now I'd like to play Merfolk again...
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
So where do you see Japanese Lackeys going
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Magic Fanatic
So where do you see Japanese Lackeys going
If Goblins do well in the next month up, otherwise about where they are now for a while. I think the key right now is don't buy anything you don't immediately need for a deck. So many people are scrambling right now to put together a deck it's inflating prices across the board. Since 15% of the meta in the largest tournament series in America played Survival probably 25%+ of the overall meta is trying to build a new deck right now. I haven't seen shit this chaotic in the MTG market since earlier this year when hundreds of people decided to but into Legacy to play in the SCG series.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I expect to see Zoo, Merfolk, and Counterbalance make their comeback pretty much what it was before we had Survival pop up. At least that means Lands has a chance again. It had a serious problem with those Vengevines.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
I expect to see Zoo, Merfolk, and Counterbalance make their comeback pretty much what it was before we had Survival pop up. At least that means Lands has a chance again. It had a serious problem with those Vengevines.
It had a serious problem with Survival. And Ooze, and Quirion Ranger. Vengevine wasn't really the issue though.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
The older Survival lists i had no problem with when playing Lands. I had a serious problem trying to get up enough defense in time before I got hit by those things to far to come back from. They all had the weakness of dying to multiple Wastes and Ghost Quarters. The Vengevines were my problem trying to beat that deck. They came out just too fast for me to have enough Mazes for them. The haste was just horrid trying to deal with. That and the GU version wasn't as susceptible to wastes so I couldn't Tabernacle them out quickly enough. I switched decks due to it.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale is set to go back up then no doubt. The price of Tabernacles had really cooled off. I saw a played English one go on eBay a couple weeks ago for ~$170. That was a bargain if tribal is back in the mix.
Manabonds and Explorations have also been very under priced recently. So i expect those to go back up as well.
-Cheers-
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I haven't been tracking the price of Grim monolith since its unbanning, but I see you can get one for 18 USD. Would you say it's "cooled off?" It doesn't really go in any competitive deck (how is MUD doing anyway?), but still retains in my opinion, a high price tag. Will Time Spiral do the same thing if it doesn't see play in a competitive deck?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
hyperchord24
I haven't been tracking the price of Grim monolith since its unbanning, but I see you can get one for 18 USD. Would you say it's "cooled off?" It doesn't really go in any competitive deck (how is MUD doing anyway?), but still retains in my opinion, a high price tag. Will Time Spiral do the same thing if it doesn't see play in a competitive deck?
Grim monolith has most definitely cooled off. I think $18 is way high. The lowest Grim monolith I saw on eBay sold for $4.75. So I think around about $8-10 is more likely the true value.
Time spiral will do the same thing as every other magic cards in legacy. We saw the same thing with Eureka and Grindstone. Magic cards ALWAYS spike high and come down slowly over time though they may have a future spike if the card does prove to be tournament viable. Grindstones were going for about $1-3 before painters servant. When the combo was realized they shot up to $25+. Now Starcitygames is selling them for $20 and you can eBay one for half that. Stores take a very long time to readjust their prices (or more likely they just dont).
As a general rule of thumb the "true" value of cards to me is the midway point between a stores buy price and their sell price. This conveniently tends to matchup pretty well with eBay prices excluding outliers.
-Cheers-
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Time Spiral is already finishing at less than $20 on eBay and falling. That was WAY fast.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Anyone think that the trend on cards getting unrestricted and spiking then cooling down may be ending as consumers are getting used to the trend?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
wmagzoo7
Anyone think that the trend on cards getting unrestricted and spiking then cooling down may be ending as consumers are getting used to the trend?
I would hope that a couple of unbannings from now people would be able to contain themselves.
Lol'ed at what Mr. C said, TS already below $20, at least they are learning a lesson.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
wmagzoo7
Anyone think that the trend on cards getting unrestricted and spiking then cooling down may be ending as consumers are getting used to the trend?
Honestly, no. This happened with Grim Monolith, Illusionary Mask (which NO ONE thought would be good), and now Time Spiral. This trend will continue. In fact, I may go as far as to say that as B/R updates approach, people will be speculating on banned cards in hopes of their unbanning. Think about it, the risk in buying 20 Mind Twists is low considering the upside if they are unbanned. Even more so for something like Earthcraft.
The one good thing out of all this is that Wizards is showing that they ARE truly spending time and energy on this format. If they planned to stop supporting legacy in the near future, they wouldn't bother unbanning cards. Glad legacy can still be healthy.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mr.C
Time Spiral is already finishing at less than $20 on eBay and falling. That was WAY fast.
Now is the time to sell to stores over eBay. Without looking too hard I found a store buying Time Spirals for $18.18 each. Plus you have no eBay fees there either.
I think that people are going to continue to speculate early because there is bascially no reason not to. If you buy a card like time spiral for five dollars then even if the price over inflates and crashes it will still be worth double what you paid for it.
-Cheers-
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
This is why you always buy restricted cards before they come off the banned list. I got my playset of entombs for $1. I got my Time Spirals for $5. I have a playset of Library of Alexandrias just waiting. Unfortunately, those cost more than a $1, but hey, least I won't pay an arm and leg if those ever come off. I have a play set of Hermit Druids, Earthcrafts, Land Taxes, and a few others just because a few bucks out of my pocket didn't hurt to not have to worry about it later.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
This is why you always buy restricted cards before they come off the banned list. I got my playset of entombs for $1. I got my Time Spirals for $5. I have a playset of Library of Alexandrias just waiting. Unfortunately, those cost more than a $1, but hey, least I won't pay an arm and leg if those ever come off. I have a play set of Hermit Druids, Earthcrafts, Land Taxes, and a few others just because a few bucks out of my pocket didn't hurt to not have to worry about it later.
I'm like, six months behind schedule. Need a well paying job first before I start (heavy) speculatory buying. But this is the general idea. One playset of Monoliths got me an extra $25 profit, just couldn't get more at the time, etc.
