Played in my local weekly yesterday, and I just wanted to share a brief report. My current list is very similar to the Predict lists devised by Minniehajj and AnziD et al.:
4 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
2 Volcanic Island
3 Tundra
1 Arid Mesa
3 Scalding Tarn
4 Flooded Strand
1 Polluted Delta
2 Monastery Mentor
3 Snapcaster Mage
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Counterbalance
3 Counterspell
4 Terminus
4 Swords to Plowshares
1 Engineered Explosives
4 Force of Will
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Sensei's Divining Top
2 Predict
SB: 1 Red Elemental Blast
SB: 2 Pyroblast
SB: 3 Flusterstorm
SB: 2 Surgical Extraction
SB: 2 Wear // Tear
SB: 1 Snapcaster Mage
SB: 1 Monastery Mentor
SB: 1 Predict
SB: 2 Price of Progress
Price of Progress was a concession to my local metagame. Typically there is at least one each: Post/Turbo Eldrazi, Lands, Imperial Taxes, and a Grixis Painter/Tezzeret, and an Eldrazi MUD. The thought is that it can actively win (as opposed to stalling to
not lose).
Round 1 - Eldrazi/MUD
The list my opponent is similar to the Eldrazi aggro lists, but it contains lock/prison pieces and uses a (Cloud)Post mana engine. Lock pieces are usually T1 Thorn of Amethyst or a Chalice of the Void with maindeck Lodestone Golems, and he plays at least one Trinisphere. (My experience with conventional MUD is that the correct line is difficult, but known: Swords the Metalworker and/or Forgemaster and attempt to race with Monastery Mentor). With this list... I really don't know what the correct angle is because of all the tax effects.
Game 1 - I'm on the draw. I allow a T1 Thorn of Amethyst with a Force of Will in-hand. In hindsight, I should have
Force'd the Thorn and trusted Predict and Snapcaster each to recover me in card advantage. Worse--I Swords a T3 Reality Smasher after I had enough to setup a Terminus. Lots of mistakes this match. Once the first Lodestone Golem resolved, the two tax effects were too much. I would lose to a Batterskull.
OUT: 3 Counterbalance; 4 Force of Will; 2 Jace;
IN: 2 Price of Progress; 1 Monastery Mentor; 1 Snapcaster Mage; 2 Surgical Extraction; 2 Wear // Tear; 1 Predict
Notes: I honestly don't know how to board for this matchup. I kinda used the Kitchen Sink approach. I've tried it before and none of my spells feel high impact. In later consideration, I probably should have kept the Forces and the Jaces and instead cut a Ponder and some Counterspells.
Game 2 - I'm on the play. I get my Top online and have some means to dig. My opponent doesn't make any commitment to the board and opts to use an Warping Wail for a blocker for a Snapcaster. My opponent is holding 6 cards. Because I want hand information, I Surgical his Warping Wail in his upkeep--a mistake because I should have waited until the end of his draw step (it would have been a Warping Wail), but also likely a mistake in general--and he is holding a Thought-Knot Seer, a Trinisphere, a Lodestone Golem, and other effects. I don't have enough to counter or remove the TKS or what follows.
Round 2 - Bye
Round 3 - High Tide
Game 1 - I'm on the draw. My opponent opens with a basic island into Sensei's Divining Top. For awhile, all he did was Brainstorm, Ponder, and fetch basic islands. I didn't know what he was on. While he was sculpting my hand, I was also sculpting mine, and was able to build a reactive hand. Then he cast High Tide. Once I knew what he was on and what to counter, I dug for the Counterbalance and made sure it resolved. Then I dug for Jace and he resigned.
OUT: 4 Force of Will; 4 Terminus (I left in the Swords in case he had Snapcaster Mages)
IN: 3 Flusterstorm; 2 Pyroblast; 1 Red Elemental Blast; 1 Snapcaster Mage; 1 Predict
Game 2 - I'm on the draw. My opening hand had 2 counterbalances and a Red blast effect. I was able to bait a Force with the first Counterbalance and then time the second one to resolve. My draws were very cooperative in this game.
Round 4 - Imperial Taxes
This is actually my deck; I was letting a friend borrow it for the event. The card selection afforded by Imperial Recruiter makes it much more resilient than the mono-white Death & Taxes. In personal testing, it's like a 70-30 in favor of R/W.
Game 1 - I'm on the draw. I have a Top, a fetch, a Swords, and a Counterspell in hand, so I keep. (I assume I'll be able to dig for a Terminus or a defensive Mentor). He opens with a Cavern (naming Human) and then a T1 Mom with a Karakas and T2 Thalia. He chips at me for a few turns while I find the Terminus, but has 6 cards in hand after I cast it. I end up having to draw into a Tundra, and it cuts me off essential mana to Snap back a Swords for the Mangara that was exiling my lands. Felt awful.
OUT: 4 Force of Will; 3 Counterbalance; 2 Jace
IN: 2 Wear // Tear; 2 Surgical Extraction; 2 Price of Progress; 1 Snapcaster Mage; 1 Predict; 1 Monastery Mentor
Note: removing the Forces and Jaces seems like a mistake in hindsight. I think the plan should be to bring in the Predict to compensate for the card disadvantage of Force to counter the the things it will hit. I think, instead, I should remove the Counterspells. Also, I brought in the PoPs because I might be able to win with them if the game goes long.
Game 1 - I'm on the play. I keep a hand with a PoP and a Swords and a Top. Again he has a Cavern naming human and gets a Mom and Thalia out. Shortly after, I end up with a top 3 of: Counterspell, Counterspell, Predict without any fetchlands. He finds a Rishadan Port and it keeps me off double blue, which enables him to land a Stoneforge Mystic. I improperly sequence using Swords on the SFM (to prevent the equipment from being cheated into play) when I would later have a Terminus floating. I also would mortgage my Top for a card because I thought I could recover with the Ponders and Brainstorms I had. The opening Swords was the only one I saw all game, and I ripped a double Terminus off of a Brainstorm -> Predict (because the third card down was also a Terminus).
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The Predict build feels like it has a different philosophy built around it than the more traditional Ponder build published by Philipp Schonegger that I was running for the previous ~8 months. (Listed
here).
I'm very curious about any tactical considerations that are common to this build, or any sideboarding philosophy you could share. I'd appreciate anything that could educate us all about this deck. It's hard.