[Deck] Death and Taxes

Sure maybe it's not karakas that gets cut if SnS does get big again. I've been using Frank Karsten's math here and like him assuming that 90%-I-can-play-the-card is where we want to be. Math is weirder w/ vials but just counting them as colored sources seems okay.

http://www.channelfireball.com/artic...t-your-spells/

Noble isn't a totally dead card on t3, but it's not a powerful play either and you've lost a lot of what you wanted from the card at that point - the explosive opening. Basically I think the real strength of the build is ensuring that you have pretty much *always* either vial or hierarch for your t1 play and I think it's worth giving up something for that.

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Originally Posted by iatee

Sure maybe it's not karakas that gets cut if SnS does get big again. I've been using Frank Karsten's math here and like him assuming that 90%-I-can-play-the-card is where we want to be. Math is weirder w/ vials but just counting them as colored sources seems okay.

http://www.channelfireball.com/artic...t-your-spells/

Noble isn't a totally dead card on t3, but it's not a powerful play either and you've lost a lot of what you wanted from the card at that point - the explosive opening. Basically I think the real strength of the build is ensuring that you have pretty much *always* either vial or hierarch for your t1 play and I think it's worth giving up something for that.

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90% probability is fine and dandy, but how does it compare to 13 sources? If it's like 88% or something, it should be negligible.

Besides, your chance to either have a Noble or Vial in your starting 7 is merely ~65%, so you can't always rely on that.

65% for one of those two, but up to 80% if you include mom as (usually) your 3rd best t1 play - and everything bumped up a bit because you are more likely to mull hands w/o one of these cards.

I dunno what 13 gets you using his math w/ mulligans, but if you do it without, I believe it's just under 84% to have vial or green source t1. The difference might be negligible but 15% of 'games I have noble in my opening hand I can't cast it' is not nothing.

14 sources = 89,80 %
13 sources = 87,70 %
12 sources = 85,25 %
11 sources = 82,37 %
10 sources = 79,01 %

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Originally Posted by Ralf

14 sources = 89,80 %
13 sources = 87,70 %
12 sources = 85,25 %
11 sources = 82,37 %
10 sources = 79,01 %

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http://stattrek.com/m/online-calcula...geometric.aspx

Population size = 60
Number of successes in population = sources
Sample Size = 8
Number of successes in sample = 1

Excel is your friend !

Edit: The results posted above are on the draw and not on the play...

HYPGEOMDIST(0,8,14,60) = odds to not have a land in your opening 8.

On the play, you will have something like:
14 sources = 86.14 %
13 sources = 83.71 %
12 sources = 80.93 %
11 sources = 77.75 %
10 sources = 74.13 %

Hey buddy, I am just giving your numbers legitimacy. Though, I think the percentage game is just a judgement call. I don't see going up to 14 sources is necessary for just Noble Hierarch. If you include other Hatebear in, sure. With just Noble Hierarch, 6 Fetches + 2 Savannah + 4 Vials is probably enough. There is only a 40% chance you get her in the opening to begin with.

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Originally Posted by L10

Hey buddy, I am just giving your numbers legitimacy. Though, I think the percentage game is just a judgement call. I don't see going up to 14 sources is necessary for just Noble Hierarch. If you include other Hatebear in, sure. With just Noble Hierarch, 6 Fetches + 2 Savannah + 4 Vials is probably enough. There is only a 40% chance you get her in the opening to begin with.

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Yeah.
I don't say otherwise :)

If you want to add the odd of having hierarch & a green source, you take the number given above and multiplied them by 39.95 % (nearly 40 %).

I found a video which fits in here very well, maybe you want to highlight this for new players :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xcz3F-yP6b8
It shows a lot of interesting player interviews

It's a shame how little credit Finn gets. "No one truly knows who created the first ever Death and Taxes deck, or who named it originally." (@4:17 in the video) wut.

I mean the video is a nice overview and has good production value, but is ultimately undermined by a lack of research.

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Originally Posted by kirbysdl

It's a shame how little credit Finn gets. "No one truly knows who created the first ever Death and Taxes deck, or who named it originally." (@4:17 in the video) wut.

I mean the video is a nice overview and has good production value, but is ultimately undermined by a lack of research.

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http://i.imgur.com/QkapmVl.png

Research is hard to do. I mean, who has the 15 minutes it would take to figure it out... :rolleyes:

It's kinda a weird editing job because Ari Lax correctly credits Finn at the start of this video and they cut to the front page of this thread repeatedly. So "No one truly knows who created the first ever Death and Taxes deck" doesn't even fit with the video's own narrative.

Finn, did you also name it, or did the name come organically?

Oh, cool. A real video.

I honestly came up with the name in just a moment of thought. I had been playing and tinkering it for a few weeks (that was like 50 games for me back then) and I went to post the deck on Salvation. While I was typing I realized that I needed a name to call the deck.

Hey guys, all the talk of Noble Hierarch got me thinking, because I'd been playing around with the Leonin Arbiter + Ghost Quarter approach recently, and Noble gives you the turn 2 Arbiter + GQ line that makes this a deck in Modern sometimes. Here's my first draft:

4 Mother of Runes
4 Noble Hierarch
2 Gaddock Teeg
3 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Leonin Arbiter
2 Serra Avenger
3 Flickerwisp

4 Swords to Plowshares
2 Umezawa's Jitte
1 Crucible of Worlds
4 AEther Vial

2 Karakas
3 Horizon Canopy
4 Savannah
4 Razorverge Thicket
4 Wasteland
2 Rishadan Port
4 Ghost Quarter

SB: 2 Choke
SB: 1 Path to Exile
SB: 2 Ethersworn Canonist
SB: 1 Council's Judgment
SB: 1 Armageddon
SB: 1 Oblivion Ring
SB: 1 Pithing Needle
SB: 1 Grafdigger's Cage
SB: 1 Nature's Claim
SB: 3 Rest in Peace
SB: 1 Containment Priest

Because we sacrifice Stoneforge to play Arbiter, I just jammed 2 Jitte in the main because it's affordable and high-impact and we want to naturally draw one. The Batterskull slot is occupied by a Crucible, which combines well with not only our Wastes and GQs but also the 3x Horizon Canopy that allow us to comfortably play a straight GW deck with no fetches. In testing, it is a backbreaking card against any deck that even remotely cares about it, and I'm considering boarding a second. The Nobles give us some protection from the cards that become problems now that our mana base is no longer full of sweet basics.

The deck gains significant win % vs Miracles and Elves, because they both care much more about an Arbiter or a Gaddock Teeg than, say, a Brimaz or a Mirran Crusader (Stoneforge is strong in both those matchups, but I do believe replacing it with maindeck hate is a net plus). It's significantly weaker against bigger midrange decks, specifically Blade decks with True-Name Nemesis, because we no longer have the ability to tutor Manriki, and our mana base is slightly less capable of casting Council's Judgment in tight scenarios. With no Wingmares or Mindcensors, the deck is slightly less weak to Dread of Night and Sulfur Elemental, but realistically those cards are still a huge beating, as is Staticaster, and it's possible that some number of Wilt-Leaf Leige or even Veteran Armorer is warranted, but that might be going too deep as I have not seen very many Lilianas locally, and Armorer is just a relatively weak card. My sideboard right now feels not quite right, there's a lot of theorycrafting that hasn't been confirmed yet in testing, but I haven't noticed any cards that feel like they just don't belong (except for the Oblivion Ring which is a hedge against Show and Tell that I feel like I need, with -1 Karakas in the list).

Overall, initial tests have been very positive. I recommend testing this approach.

My friend plays a very similar build in modern and is going to play it in legacy too when he finally buys ports. He is playing 4 wingmare though, and I think that's probably right. If your whole deck depends on mana denial, I think you gotta go big or go home and be willing to be weak to /-1 effects - if things work out right they just won't be able to cast the hate much of the time.

He did get blood mooned the last time I watched him play this deck fwiw. No basics makes 2 land no vial style keeps a lot more difficult vs wasteland decks.

I don't think this build is as strong vs elves as you're saying though - leonin might keep you from losing the game on t3 but they'll get their mana and now you have pretty poor prospects in mid-game without SFM.

I'm not a fan of the Noble Hierarch build, but largely only on theory-crafting grounds and playing a WG build using it in Modern, recognizing that that is a substantially different environment, though arguably Noble is even better in that format.

I tried Wr and while it is powerful, I feel like the format is going to be combo and mid-range-heavy and except for Sudden Demise, I'm iffy on Wr because of the manabase and because I think it is even more suspect versus BUG, Jund and Grixis mid-range builds than WW.

In fact, in both cases, it's the manabase that really bothers me.

My expectation is that there will be some decks that abuse Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, especially BUG and Grixis decks that can abuse hand destruction (Michael Majors has an article that addresses even abusing it in some oddball builds, like a UB Pox and Jace Fins, and he knows a thing or two about abusing Jace from his Modern Grixis build.)

Now, we have some advantages against it: we are the only deck running 3 Karakas, we have some removal, and if you Flickerwisp Jace, Telepath Unbound, he comes back as Jace "the creature who can die." Nevermind the 3-4 Phyrexian Revoker (Barook and I had a little talk about that on MTGSalvation.) Still, +1 to -2/-0 a Death and Taxes creature is pretty brutal, nevermind the obvious flashback affect.

But I like stacking the build to deal with that guy and other mid-range scum like DRS, so I feel like going a little fat with a 1-of Linvala, Keeper of Silence and a 1-of Eidolon of Rhetoric. I'm wiling to try maindeck Sword of War and Peace because pro-W and Pro-R are both strong, especially on the anti-mid-range beater of choice, Mirran Crusader.

Those are my thoughts for now.

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Originally Posted by redtwister

I tried Wr and while it is powerful, I feel like the format is going to be combo and mid-range-heavy and except for Sudden Demise, I'm iffy on Wr because of the manabase and because I think it is even more suspect versus BUG, Jund and Grixis mid-range builds than WW.

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Shouldn't the build be more powerful in a midrange meta? Especially Shardless BUG currently has a huge comeback and a well-timed Magus of the Moon completely stops them from playing Magic which should translate into a win unless your board state sucks.

I don't think Jund is going to be a major player in the meta compared to Lands and Shardless BUG. Hard to say how Grixis is going to turn out with DTT gone.

Yep RW eats up any 3c midrange deck that doesn't play punishing fire. I have probably played something like 40 games against my friend playing Shardless BUG and it's been absurdly in my favor. These decks either have to awkwardly structure their game around Magus or they just get Magus'd. Recruiter also smooths out your card selection in games that go long.

The deck is not without weaknesses - it's easier to get tempo'd out by fast creature decks if they have a wasteland and you have a hand full of 3 drops, it's definitely way worse vs burn - but slightly slower midrange games vs decks w/ few to no basics are exactly where it shines.

What sideboard tech should we run vs. Punishing Fire decks? Spellskite or Kor Firewalker? Both are tutorable with Recruiter and have applications against both Punishing Fire and Burn.

As far as the manabase goes, the whole discussion about Hierarch's cast chance with iatee made me realize that we aren't even remotely close to running enough red sources to support Sudden Demise properly post-board. I'm talking about this manabase:

7 white fetches
3 Plains
2 Plateau
1 Cavern of Souls
3 Karakas
4 Wasteland
4 Rishadan Port

Which gives 9 actual red sources. Given the urgency to cast it early vs. Elves for example, that is way too low. So I'm thinking about this change:

8 white fetches
2 Plains
3 Plateau
3 Karakas
4 Wasteland
4 Rishadan Port

You still have 10 ways to get a basic Plains, while the number of actual red sources is now 11. Losing the Cavern vs. blue decks kinds sucks, but it should increase the overall consistency of the deck. Sample hands with 11 red sources feel alot better now - what use is a high impact SB card if you can't cast it?

So I think you're right in that the mana is bad for red spells, but you have to weigh the pros and cons of dropping Cavern. Sudden Demise can be a game-changing sideboard card but it comes in vs relatively few decks. Whereas Cavern is a main-deck card that has application against something like 70% of the field, and combined with Magus often wins you a game on the spot vs a blue deck. I have had a few Sudden Demise stuck in my hand games but I think that's the price I'm willing to pay and I usually run only 1-2 copies of the card. If Elves/Infect swarm the field and 3-4 Sudden Demises becomes a must have, then yeah, I think it's probably necessary to tweak the manabase. In the long-run I'd definitely rather try to find non-white creatures that can provide the same effect but it's possible they just don't exist.

Vs. Punishing fire, just loading up on Rest in Peaces is a good start. So post-board there are already 13 strong cards vs Fire decks - 3 Magus 3 RIP 4 Mother of Runes 3 Recruiter (for one of the Ms) plus SFM+Sword - and often that's enough. Jund is still rough because so much of their deck requires answers, but I feel pretty strongly favored vs Lands.

Spellskite is fine and also obviously super strong vs infect, which is a tough matchup, but adding another non-threat does increase the deck's durdle factor. 1/1 into 0/4, not the scariest clock. Kor Firewalker is also okay, but Jund won't have trouble finding another way to kill it, Lands isn't super happy to see a Firewalker but can still Maze of Ith it / doesn't care about the life gain. Absolute Law is very strong in the mono-W build, though I think it's probably unplayable when you play so many red creatures yourself. Rest in Peace is such a powerful card that I think just ensuring you don't skimp on them is probably the right way to go.