[Official] Bitching About Prices, Buyouts and Reprints Thread

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Originally Posted by phonics

Yeah, mtg can be fun, but not THAT fun.

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If you compare mtg to a hooker, it's way easier to get the equivalent hours out of a $2000 legacy deck to make the cost/hour equal.

At least I think. I don't actually know what those price ranges look like.

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Originally Posted by Mr Miagi

Where do you follow these price trends? :eyebrow:

Here in Europe everything's still rather stable, athough the market tends to follow, slowly but surely, your crazy buyout bubles..

I hate making analogies like that, but damn U ass of A again greedly fucks every market possible for their own benefits (still remember that recent "world" economy criss?)

We need a puke emoji..

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MTG Stocks does daily and weekly analysis of price trends. Quiet Speculation and MTG Price have regular articles and podcasts that discuss price trends and speculations. Most of the QS content is behind the paywall but MTG Price has a fair amount of free info.

I've been reading up on both sites for about 3 months and been able to nail some good calls. I focus on mostly cheaper stuff, because I don't have the money to load up on enough Legacy/Modern staples to make an impact, but I have piles of Painful Truths and Wasteland Stranglers that have already paid off. Still waiting on Eldrazi to tear up Standard too so Shrine of Forsaken Gods and Sanctum of Ugin can reap their benefits.

Serra's Sanctum is the exception, since anything playable on the Reserved List is a good buy. I started looking at them because I was building Daxos myself, but after hearing enough talk I bought 6 more. Snagged 3 more on ebay yesterday that were well-priced after the spike.

There was a good article on MTG Price that talks about why these "buyouts" happen and how you can stay on top of it:

http://blog.mtgprice.com/2016/01/04/...yzing-buyouts/

Basically, they happen as either a result of increased demand or low supply.

Increased Demand - Relic of Progenitus, Eye of Ugin, anything else in B/x Eldrazi, Serra's Sanctum

There are players all over the world trying to build this deck as it shot up in popularity. So cards like Urborg, Wasteland Strangler, big Eldrazis, or support cards like IOK will likely go up soon too, because of increased demand for the deck. Sure, some of this is speculators buying up the supply, but what's the difference between armchair dealers buying more cards to sell on eBay for profit and SCG or CardKingdom increasing their buylist price to get more stock to resell later? Nothing.

These increases feel more natural, because the culprit is obvious and has proven (or soon-to-be proven) results.

Low Supply - Gaddock Teeg, Glen Elendra Archmage, Field of Dreams, Chainer's Edict

Basically, anything

• Modern-playable pre-Innistrad
• Legacy/EDH playable on Reserved List
• 93/94 cards
• Old commons (printed either online or in paper at common)

These increases feel shitty because there doesn't seem to be an obvious catalyst for it. Competitive players might not have a grip on casual formats (Pauper/Old School/EDH), so on a forum like this it looks weird as hell. But take Teeg and Archmage. Modern Pro Tour is coming up, and these cards are fringe players. The thing is, they're almost 10 years old and most people who want them for whatever reason have them. So there's only a few copies to be seen for sale on the internet. The "buyout" comes into play when someone with enough spare cash recognizes the low supply and capitalizes on it. Then the price goes up to compensate.

The thing with these increases is that the supply stays low for a while, because the copies that were on the market are all gone, in the hands of someone who wants to charge more for it. So they do. But then people notice the spike, and more copies come out of the framework. Sure, Teeg might be fine sitting in my binder waiting for about $15 in trade value, but he just spiked to $45. Let's try to sell at $40 then. So enough Teegs come on to the market and the price is driven back down. The new price isn't sustainable because the demand isn't actually there.

Part of the thing is to realize which increases are which. Is it because of increased demand, or low supply? One huge indicator is looking at dealer buylist prices. If demand goes up, so does dealer confidence in the card. They'll pay significantly more for a card that will be in demand and sell at a higher price than they will for a card that has a price increase due to low supply.

This is just a market like any other, and it has to exist like this if we want to keep playing MTG the way we know it. Ask anyone who sells out of Standard a little earlier than most about it and they're just doing the same thing: playing the market. Looking at the trends and buying/selling their cards accordingly. Best to arm yourself with the information so you don't get burned later.

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Originally Posted by apple713

Its actually been a good speculation target since gaea's cradle spiked. Wizards will never reprint a land like serras sanctum / cradle / tolarian academy. Sanctum is the only other land that hadent apiked and it was just a matter of time. The card was an amazing buy for 25 a little while ago. Consider trading 2 fetchlands for it... Imo thats a no brainer.

Madditionally, i think gaea's cradle is another good buy. More specifically foil cradles. itll never get a reprint and the land can ONLY get better as more green cards are printed.

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It's a great card to stash money in but not one you'll see an immediate profit on. Small percentage points over time, not enough unless you're holding it for years. I think Sanctum still has some room to grow, but the percentage return is lower from this point on.

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Originally Posted by square_two

If you compare mtg to a hooker, it's way easier to get the equivalent hours out of a $2000 legacy deck to make the cost/hour equal.

At least I think. I don't actually know what those price ranges look like.

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There's budget hookers out there too. Just like budget decks in MTG, you might feel a slight burn after playing with them.

Another post on MTG Price (previously behind paywall), this time regarding how to analyze factors that play into a cards current and future market value: http://blog.mtgprice.com/2016/01/05/...n-cheat-sheet/

Usually just throwing money at old or limited supply stuff works:

http://mtgfinance.blogspot.com/2015/...on-why-it.html

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Originally Posted by Mr.C

I think there'd be way less price spikes if people analyzed cost vs reward.

For example, I played 160 hours of Skyrim. It cost me $30. That's a cost per hour of around 20 cents. To get that same enjoyment out of a $2000 Legacy deck, I'd have to play it for 20,000 hours.

"But you can sell it after you're done!". Which is true. So if I got 70% of what I paid for it, I'd only have to enjoy it for 6,000 hours. Whoop dee do.

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although your reasoning sounds logical its heavily flawed.

When you sell a legacy deck you are more than likely to get 100+% provided you held the deck for longer than a year. I generally don't buy a card unless I know i'll be able to get my money out of it when its time to sell / trade. The way you compare things as time value of money / hours of enjoyment is not a great way of measuring things.

Consider this. I bought a beta black lotus 7 years ago for $1200. If I were to sell that lotus today, id get close to 10k (BGS 9). Even though I haven't been playing with it the entire time, i've enjoyed it every hour I've owned it AND i'll make a HUGE profit on it. If I were to have played with it I'd get even more value out of it. I used the example of a lotus just to demonstrate the extreme but even in the case of dual lands it applies. If you sold dual lands today they you owned for 2x years you would get something like a 40% profit. The bulk cost of mtg decks is dual lands so even if you bought crappy other cards that had little resale value you'd still come out around even.

If you just want to try legacy for a year, you probably shouldn't and you'd be crazy to spend thousands of dollars on something you didn't think you would enjoy for a long time.

I'll leave you with this, Legacy is probably the only game you could lose at for years and still win big when you sell :P

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Originally Posted by apple713

although your reasoning sounds logical its heavily flawed.

When you sell a legacy deck you are more than likely to get 100+% provided you held the deck for longer than a year. I generally don't buy a card unless I know i'll be able to get my money out of it when its time to sell / trade. The way you compare things as time value of money / hours of enjoyment is not a great way of measuring things.

Consider this. I bought a beta black lotus 7 years ago for $1200. If I were to sell that lotus today, id get close to 10k (BGS 9). Even though I haven't been playing with it the entire time, i've enjoyed it every hour I've owned it AND i'll make a HUGE profit on it. If I were to have played with it I'd get even more value out of it. I used the example of a lotus just to demonstrate the extreme but even in the case of dual lands it applies. If you sold dual lands today they you owned for 2x years you would get something like a 40% profit. The bulk cost of mtg decks is dual lands so even if you bought crappy other cards that had little resale value you'd still come out around even.

If you just want to try legacy for a year, you probably shouldn't and you'd be crazy to spend thousands of dollars on something you didn't think you would enjoy for a long time.

I'll leave you with this, Legacy is probably the only game you could lose at for years and still win big when you sell :P

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"Past performance does not guarantee future results".

Odds are, if you buy into Legacy today, your deck will be worth the same or slightly less in 5 years.

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Originally Posted by Mr.C

"Past performance does not guarantee future results".

Odds are, if you buy into Legacy today, your deck will be worth the same or slightly less in 5 years.

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although that tends to be true about the stock market, that saying doesn't really apply to collectible items. In 5 years almost anything you buy in magic will be worth more than the day you bought it especially anything legacy worthy.

Do you even play legacy? It sounds like your only experience is standard. ALMOST everything in standard worth something now will be worthless 5 years.

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Originally Posted by Mr.C

Am I ever glad I stopped playing any format that requires actual cards...

I think there'd be way less price spikes if people analyzed cost vs reward.

For example, I played 160 hours of Skyrim. It cost me $30. That's a cost per hour of around 20 cents. To get that same enjoyment out of a $2000 Legacy deck, I'd have to play it for 20,000 hours.

"But you can sell it after you're done!". Which is true. So if I got 70% of what I paid for it, I'd only have to enjoy it for 6,000 hours. Whoop dee do.

Shit, a Legacy deck even compares unfavorably to an old BMW I have as a pleasure car. I've spend $6000 on it in the last year, including repairs, maintenance, mods, gas and insurance (edit: and purchase price too. Yeah, it was trashed). Drove 20k km at an average of 30km/h. Went to a dozen events, and had a lot of fun working on it on weekends. I'd say I got about 800 hours of entertainment out of it, so it cost me about $7.50 per hour of entertainment. I'd have to play a $2000 Legacy deck for 266 hours to get the same value.

tl;dr it was way more fun to play Legacy when decks cost $500.

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As though most people aren't capable of doing their own analysis. Have you considered that many players love Legacy and hate computer games? Shit, don't even get me started on Standard or Modern.

Well, if you had any plans to build RG Tron in Modern or RG Lands in Legacy, I hope you already picked up your playset of Grove of the Burnwillows a while back.

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Originally Posted by MGB

Well, if you had any plans to build RG Tron in Modern or RG Lands in Legacy, I hope you already picked up your playset of Grove of the Burnwillows a while back.

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Haha, 7 english non-foils on tcgplayer left with the cheapest being an mp one for $72.

I guess it's surprising it took so long considering how well RG tron was doing in the second half of last year.

Guess I am waiting for a reprint to get my foils for Lands.

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Originally Posted by Dice_Box

Guess I am waiting for a reprint to get my foils for Lands.

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Chances are you won't get your (foil) FS Groves cheaper than now, even with a reprint, anyhow..

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Originally Posted by Quasim0ff

Chances are you won't get your (foil) FS Groves cheaper than now, even with a reprint, anyhow..

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Checked the price, as much as I would love to grab 4 now I have bills to pay. Pitty. I might just have to move into trading out Duals to finish my baby.

It would have to be a standard reprint to tank the price and a modern masters or expedition-style reprint seems much more likely since it's an oddball land that's 1/5th of an unprinted cycle that wotc probably wouldn't want as a part of standard because of so many life changes. It would be really weird for it to just show up on it's own like it did the first time.

Yea. That's sounds likely and painful. I found one for a price I can take now and bought it. The other three will have to wait price jump or not. I guess I don't get permission to bitch though, I own the card already and can play it.

Fuck this is an expensive hobby we all share. Cardboard crack indeed.

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Originally Posted by Dice_Box

Checked the price, as much as I would love to grab 4 now I have bills to pay. Pitty. I might just have to move into trading out Duals to finish my baby.

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dice takes a baby and glues four foil Grove of the Burnwillows to its face. "My baby is complete."

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Originally Posted by iamajellydonut

dice takes a baby and glues four foil Grove of the Burnwillows to its face. "My baby is complete."

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Pics or GTFO

Aside from the allied fetches, have they done any reprints that have tanked the price of the card? I can only think of Thoughseize.

Shocklands are the other big example I can think of recently.

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Originally Posted by supremePINEAPPLE

Shocklands are the other big example I can think of recently.

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Much to my shockland stockpile's disappointment.