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It's the worst topdeck in the world for burn...It won't make the cut for me. I don't know why people instist upon putting new, irrelevent cards in their decks...Besides, what are you going to cut for it?
What I think to otherwise be the worst 4 in the deck : Incinerate, Flame Rift, lands (in high curve burn, like the ones using Flamebreak or Earthquake), etc.
As for the topdeck issue, that's a point against it indeed but :
- you get about one chance in three to lose 2 life and one in six to lose 1 life, i.e. in top deck mode, this card costs you 0.66 life on average. Let's call this 1 life.
- if you play burn correctly and aren't losing anyway, you should rarely be in topdeck mode. Playing well, it shouldn't happen more than once every 10 games. Let's say we're not good and call it 7.5. That's a 13% chance of entering topdeck mode.
- the chances of topdecking it are about 1/15 per turn, i.e. a bit less than 1 in 5 over 3 turns. If you have to spend 3 turns in topdeck mode, you will most likely lose anyway. Considering 1 or 2 turns spent in topdeck mode in a game without winning or losing gives about 20%.
In short, the chances of topdecking Manamorphose are about 2.6%, which will cost you about 1 life on average. Let's say this 1 life is relevant in, what, 1 game in 20 ? That means the issue you are talking about is relevant in about 0.13% of cases, i.e. once every 770 games.
I didn't compensate for the fact you dig 3 cards instead of 2 over 2 turns of topdeck mode and neither for the chances of a double topdeck but that gives enough of an idea of order of magnitude of the relevance of the topdeck issue.
My guess is that this is well balanced by the improvement of quality in the deck by putting Manamorphose in but I'll grant you I haven't run the calculation for that.
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A mono-red burn list won't use this at ALL. 19 Mountains, 4 creatures, 34 burn spells (3-5 are board-clearers), 3 punisher spells. When are you going to play it? At what point in time does this come in "handy"? All it will do is replace itself, and if you have an empty hand, it almost can't even do that without you running the risk of burning for 2.k
It's not a matter of it coming in "handy". It's a matter of making the deck as a whole better.
Why do you play only 60 cards in your deck and not 80 ? There are plenty of "handy" spells you could cram in, aren't there ?