[Deck] Goblins

Great analysis Gobolord. Would it be fair enough to characterise the 'spaghetti sauce' lists as ones which don't know which sub-archetype they are trying to be?

At the risk of dramatically oversimplifying, is it fair to say that the Winstigator lists are aggro decks, while the MonoR port and Thalia lists are trying to be aggro-control.

It's interesting that Tarfire and Lightning Bolt didn't seem to get a look in in any of the successful lists. Does that mean that the discussion about it is misguided?

Thx Christian for the article.

Anyway. I AM old ;) The first 3 tables drew. The mu is with the built, my opponent played (4 Bombardments) about 50% and in our fungames afterwards, he defeated me. But it was ok. Another tournament without sleeping and so the optimum for me (not as good as GP Ghent with 40h without sleeping ;) ).

But the bast yesterday was to counter the UW man out. stingscourging the dreadnought and countering things like Propaganda or Wrath is a nice feeling with Goblins!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by magicmerl

Great analysis Gobolord. Would it be fair enough to characterise the 'spaghetti sauce' lists as ones which don't know which sub-archetype they are trying to be?

At the risk of dramatically oversimplifying, is it fair to say that the Winstigator lists are aggro decks, while the MonoR port and Thalia lists are trying to be aggro-control.

It's interesting that Tarfire and Lightning Bolt didn't seem to get a look in in any of the successful lists. Does that mean that the discussion about it is misguided?

---

I really don't know how to characterize the "11- & 12-cmc2 cards"-decklists. I can say for sure that they share a lot of features (in fact they look quite similar). I couldn't find out what exactly makes them LESS successful than the other decklists. However, the most obvious explanation would be that they don't know what strategy they want to apply and therefore are uncertain about which cards are imnportant and which aren't.
I think labeling the deck as either "control" or "aggro" or "aggro-control" does not get us anywhere. The role you play can change from MU to MU and then even from game to game.
About Tarfire and Bolt: I think those cards belong to the "one or two tweaks to make a list fit a local metagame" type of cards. They are quite specific calls since they are mostly included with certain problematic cards in mind (like SFM, Deathrite Shaman, Goblin Lackey). I wouldn't call the discussin misguided.

Great analysis
I especially like the Classic/Thalia/Winstigator distinction and I like to know that all of these builds are still viable options

Interesting, but I have some difficulty accepting the premises for the analysis.

If I understand it correctly, only decklists that did well are considered, while decklists that performed poorly were not considered.
Then, how do you account for differences in representation?
If there are 10 times more players using decklists of type A than of type B, decklists of type A will be much more likely to enter top8's in some number and to be considered as a deck that performs well in your analysis.
Let's just for the sake of example say there are 40 players using decklist A and 4 players using decklist B in the whole world.
And let's assume that 4 decklists of type A performs very well (70% win record), and that 3 decklists of type B has a good win record of 65%, and the rest of both types of decks performed not so good as to be taken into consideration.

What those examplified data would tell me is that 1) deck A is more popular but not consistently strong, and 2) deck B seems like the strongest deck, since a very high portion of them (75%) did very well (65% win).
Your way of treating the data would seem to come to the opposite conclusion: That deck A is stronger than deck B. Could you elaborate on this?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kombatkiwi

Great analysis
I especially like the Classic/Thalia/Winstigator distinction and I like to know that all of these builds are still viable options

---

+1
Thanks for this.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hof

If I understand it correctly, only decklists that did well are considered, while decklists that performed poorly were not considered.

---

Nope, there seems to be a misunderstanding: I analyzed every decklist that I could find on this forum that had a detailed tournament report written below it. I needed the results of every single match they played on the tournament. I explained that in my first analysis (references can be found in the article above).
I stated that the average performance of the dataset does not reflect the average performance of all goblin lists, because people tend to write tournament reports only when they perform well (this is called 'report bias'). However, I did include records with poor results - even some 0-2 --> drops.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Hof

Then, how do you account for differences in representation?

---

Should be answered. However, if a list is "rarely played , but overly successful" then I would have found such a pattern in the data, for sure.

I can elaborate on the rest of your posting, but I guess it should now be clear what kind of answers the analyses revealed.

Thank you for clearing that up.

You never fail to impress.

So taking from the reading the Thalia decklist completely cuts Port? Strange but understandable. The mana needs to be stable. My question is, when you say 3 Duallands, what are the 3 that normally make the cut? Plateau obviously but it is a 2 and 1 Taiga, 3 Plateau or is it differing deck to deck?

Edit:
Had a question in my head.
If I have Vial on 2 and Thalia in my hand, if someone plays something (say SnT) on 3 mana, has none left open, does Vialing in Thalia in response to the play do anything or do I have to Vial her in in response to the tapping of the 3rd mana?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dice_Box

Edit:
Had a question in my head.
If I have Vial on 2 and Thalia in my hand, if someone plays something (say SnT) on 3 mana, has none left open, does Vialing in Thalia in response to the play do anything or do I have to Vial her in in response to the tapping of the 3rd mana?

---

You can't respond a mana abilitie, so you can't respond to aplayer tapping a land for mana.
If the player has already anounced SnT, then vialing Thalia will do nothing. You need her in the battlefield before he gets to his mainphase.
As a rule of tumb, Vial her in your own turn. If he has only a Brainstorm and 1 mana, you mght be able to make him lose even more time.

Ok good info. Thanks for that.

That is one awesome analysis of the Goblin decks! That is why I keep coming to this thread to better my deck and see other Goblin decks! : D

Quick question, if I put Thalia in play, can my opponent respond by playing Sword of Plowshares for 1 mana? Should not it cost 1 plains and :1:? Also another question.

What is the use of Skirk Prospector? I understand he can speed up your Goblins to full-blast but will you need those Goblins to do some damage? Can somebody give me a scenario with him against Esper or any other decks in our meta because I see no use to him.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Geeksire

That is one awesome analysis of the Goblin decks! That is why I keep coming to this thread to better my deck and see other Goblin decks! : D

Quick question, if I put Thalia in play, can my opponent respond by playing Sword of Plowshares for 1 mana? Should not it cost 1 plains and :1:? Also another question.

What is the use of Skirk Prospector? I understand he can speed up your Goblins to full-blast but will you need those Goblins to do some damage? Can somebody give me a scenario with him against Esper or any other decks in our meta?

---

StP will cost W if it's in response to you casting Thalia. StP will cost W if it's in response to you activating your 2 counter Aether Vial (and him suspecting Thalia from you). Once Thalia is on the battlefield, StP will cost 1W to cast.

Prospector can help you block, but avoid having Esperblade gain life from Batterskull or Jitte counters to be added. Prospector can also cause a nice interaction with Sharpshooter, allowing you to kill thing you normally wouldn't be able to kill, or to just ping your opponent directly for those last few points of life.

I would think StP would cost W and 1 because you can't target Thalia until she resolves and once she does her effect is active.

If the target is not Thalia, then yes that's legal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dice_Box

Had a question in my head.
If I have Vial on 2 and Thalia in my hand, if someone plays something (say SnT) on 3 mana, has none left open, does Vialing in Thalia in response to the play do anything or do I have to Vial her in in response to the tapping of the 3rd mana?

---

Thalia does nothing unless she is already in play when the opponent is announcing SnT. In that example you would need to Vial her in on your turn or in their upkeep.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Geeksire

Quick question, if I put Thalia in play, can my opponent respond by playing Sword of Plowshares for 1 mana? Should not it cost 1 plains and :1:? Also another question.

---

This is where it's very important to be clear about communication. You do NOT need to announce that you're putting Thalia into play. Just activate your Vial, and allow your opponent to respond or not as they see fit. If they let it resolve, *then* you can put Thalia into play and by the time they know it's her their Swords will cost W1 to cast. They *could* have cast Swords for W in response to the activated ability of Aether Vial and killed one of your goblins then.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Geeksire

What is the use of Skirk Prospector? I understand he can speed up your Goblins to full-blast but will you need those Goblins to do some damage? Can somebody give me a scenario with him against Esper or any other decks in our meta because I see no use to him.

---

Some common examples of Prospector utility:

#1 Blocking a Germ equipped with both Jitte and Batterskull, then saccing the goblin before damage (preventing the Jitte counters and the lifelink). Bonus points if you can use that mana to cycle a Gempalm incinerator and kill either the Stoneforge or the Germ

#2 With Sharpshooter and SGC in play, sac a goblin token for R (with the Sharpshooter untap on the stack, tap it to ping the opponent), then sac another token for R and Sharp-ping, then use SGC and the RR floating to sac another token (sharp-ping) to deal two damge to something. Net result: 5 damage distributed in lots of 1, 1, 1 and 2 for the net cost of 3 goblin tokens.

#3 With Warchief in play, cast MWM for R, then sac it for R (resulting in 2 1/1 hasty goblins for a net cost of 0 mana). You can even burn the whole MWM in one hit to use him as a 'red ritual' (getting RRR from R).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by kombatkiwi

Great analysis
I especially like the Classic/Thalia/Winstigator distinction and I like to know that all of these builds are still viable options

---

Yes, I completely agree. Gobolord, is it worth adding these different builds to the front page?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by magicmerl

Gobolord, is it worth adding these different builds to the front page?

---

Maybe. The only thing that keeps me from doing so is the fact that more versions might emerge as the dataset grows. I could also be that the 3 mentioned versions fall behind in success. For now I wil just put the link to the article and the related discussion in the "Torunament Reports and Good Reads" section...

//EDIT:

VI. Update notes

April 30th, 2013
* NEW section: "Good Reads"

So here's my take on an amalgamated build of the 'Classic' and Thalia builds:


22 mana (Caverns, Wastelands, Mountains, Fetches/Taiga, and either Ports OR Plateaus)

4 Aether Vial
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader

12 Two Drops (4 Gempalm Incinerator, 0-3 Thalia, 2-4 Piledriver, 0-3 MWM)
4 Tutor Package (Skirk Prospector, Goblin Sharpshooter, Stingscourger, Tin Street Hooligan)
2 Fatties (1-2 SGC, 1-0 Krenko)

Sideboard
3 Pyrokinesis
4 GY Hate (Relic of Progenitus, Rest in Peace)
4 anti-Storm (Chalice of the Void)
3 anti-Storm #2 (Mindbreak Trap, Thalia)
3 anti-SnT (Angel of Despair, Confusion in the Ranks, Oblivion Ring)
3 disenchants (Krosan Grip, Oblivion Ring, Ancient Grudge)

Although it's had success, I still don't like the Winstigator lists as much since when I tested it it was too inconsistent (either the Instigator wouldn't get through and overcosted goblins would be stranded in hand, or they would get through, and spot removal/pyroclasm would frag everything and I'd be out of gas). I'd much rather play my goblins out in waves, letting my opponent kill them, then deploying another batch.

More and more I'm coming to the conclusion that MWM is a hidden all star in the deck. He's the secret glue that hold everything together.

Gobolord, one other comment about the manabases you have listed. In your fetchlands/mountain ratios you have more mountains than fetchlands. I personally am comfortable with more fetchlands than actual targets in the deck. So instead of 5 fetches, 1 Taiga and 5 mountains, I would switch that to 6/1/4. And in the Thalia build I'd go with 7/3/3.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by magicmerl

So here's my take on an amalgamated build of the 'Classic' and Thalia builds:


22 mana (Caverns, Wastelands, Mountains, Fetches/Taiga, and either Ports OR Plateaus)

4 Aether Vial
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Gempalm Incinerator
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader

8 Two Drops (0-3 Thalia, 2-4 Piledriver, 0-3 MWM)
4 Tutor Package (Skirk Prospector, Goblin Sharpshooter, Stingscourger, Tin Street Hooligan)
2 Fatties (1-2 SGC, 1-0 Krenko)

Sideboard
3 Pyrokinesis
4 GY Hate (Relic of Progenitus, Rest in Peace)
4 anti-Storm (Chalice of the Void)
3 anti-Storm #2 (Mindbreak Trap, Thalia)
3 anti-SnT (Angel of Despair, Confusion in the Ranks, Oblivion Ring)
3 disenchants (Krosan Grip, Oblivion Ring, Ancient Grudge)

---

In this build, I would put Gem in with the two drops and think about cutting one. You want as many of the other 3 choices as you can get.

I like the sideboard. I think is shows off O rings versatility.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by magicmerl

Although it's had success, I still don't like the Winstigator lists as much since when I tested it it was too inconsistent (either the Instigator wouldn't get through and overcosted goblins would be stranded in hand, or they would get through, and spot removal/pyroclasm would frag everything and I'd be out of gas). I'd much rather play my goblins out in waves, letting my opponent kill them, then deploying another batch.

---

WIn does some crazy things on his own and in a dedicated build can do magic. There is a guy local that runs it in a Kiki deck and if he can get a matron to hit the table off the back of WIn he almost always wins. At the same time I can not see this build working for me. It just does not fit my play style. I do remember a deck once that traded out Pile's for WIn though. Save from the obvious blasphemy it did rather well from memory.

Found it: http://starcitygames.com/events/cove...h_cedric_.html

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by magicmerl

More and more I'm coming to the conclusion that MWM is a hidden all star in the deck. He's the secret glue that hold everything together.

---

Oh he does some magic. Him and Pile, him and Gem, him and vial. Yea hes much better than I first thought when I saw him.

I tested with instagator for some time. The results were not good and chrome mox is not to good in this deck. At least i don't like it. It is a horrible late game topdeck and it's extremely hard to get a hand with: land, mox, instagator, red card, removal, and something awesome to cheat into play. I like mogg war marshal better and instagator might be too greedy.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dice_Box

In this build, I would put Gem in with the two drops and think about cutting one. You want as many of the other 3 choices as you can get.

---

Fair enough. It's possible that Gempalm is only a 3-of. It's just that I basically never side them out ever, since I ALWAYS want to either kill a creature or draw a card.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dice_Box

I like the sideboard. I think is shows off O rings versatility.

---

Yeah, that's a speculative SB of course. I think what it really shows is that one of the hidden strengths of the Thalia build is that it effectively gives you 18 SB slots to work with (since 3 or them are MD). And yeah, having a SnT SB that is also an out vs randomness like Moat is useful.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dice_Box

WIn does some crazy things on his own and in a dedicated build can do magic. There is a guy local that runs it in a Kiki deck and if he can get a matron to hit the table off the back of WIn he almost always wins. At the same time I can not see this build working for me. It just does not fit my play style. I do remember a deck once that traded out Pile's for WIn though. Save from the obvious blasphemy it did rather well from memory.

Found it: http://starcitygames.com/events/cove...h_cedric_.html

---

Yes, I agree. I think that Kiki Jiki should be included in a Winstigator list, since Matron->Kiki Jiki means utter nuts the next turn (like EOT kiki-matron for Gempalm, untap, kill their blocker, kiki-Matron for Ringleader, then start kiki-Ringleader insanity).