All B/R update speculation.

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Originally Posted by FTW

Unban Survival of the Fittest. Then Jund can play SFM+TNN. Problem solved.

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There are indeed some peeps discussing a white-splash in Jund to play Hatebears alongside of Hymn and Punishing Fire with a VERY PROMISSING manabase. I'm sure your idea of adding double blue-cost cards and rainbowlands would be appreciated there as well!


XP

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

There are indeed some peeps discussing a white-splash in Jund to play Hatebears alongside of Hymn and Punishing Fire with a VERY PROMISSING manabase. I'm sure your idea of adding double blue-cost cards and rainbowlands would be appreciated there as well!


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I mean yolo. I would play SFM. Equipping a Sword of X&Y to Bloodbraid elf just oozes value.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

I don't understand how the "the format has never been healthier" people in this thread just completely ignore the data for December 2013 and January 2014. In the now-closed "Would you like to see TNN go away" thread, I posted data showing how TNN was beginning to push out non-blue, non-TNN decks (citing Maverick as the prime example), but people said that Maverick didn't matter (uh... less non-blue decks able to compete with blue decks is a good thing?) and the format would adapt with more decks like Jund straight raping TNN decks... yeah, December 2013 and January 2014 sure showed how awesome Jund is doing versus TNN. In case people didn't notice, it's not. At all.

And I fully understand that January 2014's data is incomplete and that the final numbers will move things around, but I don't anticipate drastic changes in the next 8 days left in the month. Also, the TNN-killer, Jund, really has no reason as to why it's performing so poorly (other than losing to TNN-decks), particularly when Storm (one of it's worst matchups) is at a 6-8 month low. If TNN is where the format is right now, and if Jund truly just rapes TNN-decks for free with infinite answers like Golgari Charm, Toxic Deluge, Liliana of the Veil, Ancient Grudge, Pyroblast, etc, while not having to worry too much about facing Storm during a tournament, then wouldn't Jund be near the top of the format?

I suspect that it's mediocre performance in a TNN world is because Jund just isn't the TNN-killer it was billed to be. Jund, outside of the 1-2 Sylvan Library it may run, has no library manipulation to get their exact answer to TNN when it's needed. By overloading their deck with cards like Golgari Charm, Toxic Deluge, Ancient Grudge, etc, Jund is playing nothing but reactive cards to the blue player's proactive cards like Delver/SFM/TNN/etc; a non-blue deck that's essentially slaved to their natural draw step trying to play the control role versus a blue deck with Jace/TNN/Brainstorm/Snapcaster/etc isn't a winning proposition.

TNN-decks tend to be slightly grindier decks, with some veering on the tempo side of things (Patriot) while others prefer the control approach (Blade Control). Jund is also trying to grind the game down, but it lacks the luxury of having access to a near-invincible win condition and also lacks the versatility of Brainstorm to dig for it's answers to said near-invincible win condition.

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Probably because you're using a ton of data from TC with 15 man tourneys. That's why I pointed to Bob's analysis of the meta using major tournaments as they're significantly more important. Like where Maverick hasn't been a real player in a long time, not because of TNN, but because it's not a good deck right now. Also, UWR Delver is most decidedly not a TNN deck, it's ridiculous to characterize it as one.

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Originally Posted by HSCK

Probably because you're using a ton of data from TC with 15 man tourneys. That's why I pointed to Bob's analysis of the meta using major tournaments as they're significantly more important. Like where Maverick hasn't been a real player in a long time, not because of TNN, but because it's not a good deck right now. Also, UWR Delver is most decidedly not a TNN deck, it's ridiculous to characterize it as one.

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Bob's data isn't current (the October 31st, 2013 article you cited was data collected well before TNN was printed) and he hasn't posted any updates since then. How exactly is the community supposed to use Bob's data on TNN when he hasn't provided us any?

I'm fairly certain that the vast majority of posters in the "Would you like to see TNN go away" thread agreed that we were all going to cite thecouncil's data moving forward as it's regularly updated, comprehensive and takes into account all metas.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

How exactly is the community supposed to use Bob's data on TNN when he hasn't provided us any?

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With a time machine?

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

Bob's data isn't current (the October 31st, 2013 article you cited was data collected well before TNN was printed) and he hasn't posted any updates since then. How exactly is the community supposed to use Bob's data on TNN when he hasn't provided us any?

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http://www.channelfireball.com/artic...game-analysis/

Also, that October 31st Article is my proof and counter for your "Maverick has always been a major player and died because of TNN" argument. Maverick wasn't, it died long before TNN.

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Originally Posted by HSCK

Probably because you're using a ton of data from TC with 15 man tourneys. That's why I pointed to Bob's analysis of the meta using major tournaments as they're significantly more important. Like where Maverick hasn't been a real player in a long time, not because of TNN, but because it's not a good deck right now. Also, UWR Delver is most decidedly not a TNN deck, it's ridiculous to characterize it as one.

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- they play SFM to power up TNN
- they play TNN

How is that not a TNN deck? Especially when they ride quite a few games to the win with it where they had no business winning.

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Originally Posted by HSCK

http://www.channelfireball.com/artic...game-analysis/

Also, that October 31st Article is my proof and counter for your "Maverick has always been a major player and died because of TNN" argument. Maverick wasn't, it died long before TNN.

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That December 2013 article (http://www.channelfireball.com/artic...game-analysis/) is from a different website than the October 2013 article (http://www.eternalcentral.com/legacy...november-2013/), sorry I didn't check a completely different website to follow his articles. Although since you were kind enough to link to the December 2013 article, here's his breakdown from it:

Here are the top-performing decks:

RUG Delver (11.2%)
ANT (9.5%)
UWR Delver (8.6%)
BUG Delver (6.9%)
Death and Taxes (6.9%)
Miracles (6.0%)
DeathBlade (6.0%)
Sneak and Show (6.0%)
EsperBlade (5.2%)
Elves (5.2%)
Shardless BUG (5.2%)

So... Jund isn't a relevant player anymore, just like I said, despite everyone claiming in the "Would you like to see TNN go away" thread that Jund was going to smash TNN-decks. Thanks for providing another set of data to confirm I was right.

A cursory look SCG's events in December and January so far using MTGTop8 have 5 Jund decks in the top 8 vs. 6 decks they categorize as Stoneblade. That seems more like a healthy metagame than an unhealthy one. Jund dropped off a lot in November and has been showing an uptick in the intervening time period, so does that make it a player or not?

But guys TNN and SFM is pretty cool. I can turn 2 SFM for a Jitte, turn 3 a TNN, then turn four put the Jitte on the TNN and swing for the win. Isn't that awesome?

It's like Troll Ascetic but in the best colours.

IS there an upcoming (un)banning? What is the announcement schedule, if any?

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Originally Posted by PirateKing

IS there an upcoming (un)banning? What is the announcement schedule, if any?

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Banned: None
Unbanned: Earthcraft.

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Originally Posted by HSCK

A cursory look SCG's events in December and January so far using MTGTop8 have 5 Jund decks in the top 8 vs. 6 decks they categorize as Stoneblade. That seems more like a healthy metagame than an unhealthy one. Jund dropped off a lot in November and has been showing an uptick in the intervening time period, so does that make it a player or not?

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SCG Columbus (342 players) - http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=12694

- 7 Blade Control/Deathblade/Patriot decks in the Top 16, 0 Jund decks.

SCG Orlando (239 players) - http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=12653

- 2 Patriot & 2 TNN UR Delver decks in the Top 16, 1 Jund deck.

SCG Indy (256 players) - http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=12597

- 4 Patriot decks in the Top 16, 0 Jund decks.

90 Duals Open HK (193 players) - http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=12577

- 2 DeathBlade decks in the Top 8, 0 Jund decks.

So in the most recent 4 tourneys that have 129+ players (following Bob's methodology), there were 17 TNN decks in the Top8/Top16 to Jund's 1. Even if you don't think Patriot or TNN UR Delver are "TNN-decks" (I firmly believe that Patriot is the premier TNN deck), then the number becomes 8 TNN-decks to Jund's 1. If that isn't Jund dropping off the face of the map, I don't know what is.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

If that isn't Jund dropping off the face of the map, I don't know what is.

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I don't understand why Jund is suffering. It has punishing fire to kill stupid weenies in the SFM/TNN deck, it has access to black-stuff like Lilly and Golgari Charm to kill TNN (or Pyroblast/REB to counter it), superior grinding game, and Decay to nuke equipment that SFM gets (barring Batterskull).

It, along with Shardless BUG, look like good choices in this True Named meta.

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Originally Posted by PirateKing

IS there an upcoming (un)banning? What is the announcement schedule, if any?

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Pretty sure the announcement is tomorrow?

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Originally Posted by DragoFireheart

I don't understand why Jund is suffering. It has punishing fire to kill stupid weenies in the SFM/TNN deck, it has access to black-stuff like Lilly and Golgari Charm to kill TNN (or Pyroblast/REB to counter it), superior grinding game, and Decay to nuke equipment that SFM gets (barring Batterskull).

It, along with Shardless BUG, look like good choices in this True Named meta.

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I posted my general thoughts on the reasons behind Jund's sharp decline a page back, but also would like to add that Jund's answers to TNN decks, although plentiful (many Jund lists are dedicating 6-8 SB slots for the TNN matchups), are varied and don't necessarily "hit" when they need to. Ever cast a TNN while your Jund opponent is looking at Ancient Grudge in his hand? I have. Ever cast a SFM while your Jund opponent is sitting on 2x Pyroblast? I have. Ever cast a Jace while your Jund opponent is holding Golgari Charm + Diabolic Edict? I have. And they do not have anyway of fixing these awkward draws as they're a slave to their natural draw step unless they get an early Sylvan Library out. Blue greatly mitigates this situation with Brainstorm + fetchlands and it also just runs near-invincible win conditions that require incredibly narrow answers at a precise moment... the closest thing Jund runs to that is Liliana I suppose, but she doesn't outright win the game if left unchecked, she needs support to get there; TNN just gets there independent of whatever else blue is throwing at you with their SFMs, Jaces, Snapcaster + value flashbacks, etc.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

I posted my general thoughts on the reasons behind Jund's sharp decline a page back, but also would like to add that Jund's doesn't have Brainstorm.

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Is pretty much what I read.

Ban brainstorm trololololol?

So your reasoning is also why Shardless BUG is fine. Brainstorm is quite amazing. And yes, I have run into those situations you describe. Anecdotes, but I believe they are valid ones.

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Originally Posted by DragoFireheart

Is pretty much what I read.

Ban brainstorm trololololol?

So your reasoning is also why Shardless BUG is fine. Brainstorm is quite amazing.

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But Jund was CRUSHING Stoneblade decks pre-TNN. That's because they didn't have to scramble/hope to draw their specific, narrow answers to break even against near-invincible win conditions, they could just play normal Magic, take a hit or two from Lingering Souls tokens, then P.Fire into the win. Now that TNN has replaced Lingering Souls in many lists, Jund's previously useful cards like P.Fire, Lighting Bolt and Abrupt Decay are all nearly dead in that matchup.

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Originally Posted by Arsenal

But Jund was CRUSHING Stoneblade decks pre-TNN. That's because they didn't have to scramble/hope to draw their specific, narrow answers to near-invincible win conditions, they could just play normal Magic, take a hit or two from Lingering Souls tokens, then P.Fire into the win.

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But is True-Name Nemesis ban worthy?

There are answers for it, but is it skewing/warping the meta too much like how Mental Misstep and Survival of the Fittest were?

EDIT: I personally see TNN getting the axe. Watching it push out non-blue decks is depressing.

Jund folds to TNN because the idea of the deck is to be interactive and to pull every bit of value from its cards. When you blank out its interaction and kill about 1/3 of its deck with a single card, its plan folds. It also has the issue where it is almost always at the mercy of the topdeck to find answers. So it may have a strong match when it gets the right cards, but over a full 10+ rounds its going to fall down. Because its just not as consistent.